fighting the war as if there are no negotiations, and
negotiating as if there is no war
Avi Melamed
It is dangerous to be found in the company of God's enemies
Operation Iron Swords
October 2023
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Wars generally end with one side accepting that it has lost. So long as neither side gives up, then the war goes on.
Iran is the main backer and primary arms supplier to Hezbollah and groups with which it has common interests, such as Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, and other armed groups in Iraq and Syria. Hezbollah and Israel have been exchanging fire almost daily since the war between Israel and Hamas (designated a terrorist organization in the United States and other countries) began in the Gaza Strip on October 7. But tensions had risen after Shukr was killed on July 30 in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut's southern suburbs. Shukr was killed hours before Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran in a strike attributed to Israel. Tehran and Hezbollah have since vowed to avenge their deaths.
Iran delayed its strikes on Israel to allow ceasefire talks in Doha & not be blamed for undermining a truce in Gaza, according to Iranian, U.S. and Israeli officials. Ceasefire talks wrapped up in Doha. Senior officials met again in Cairo, with working teams continuing to address the details of a possible agreement in the days ahead. Negotiators were still working to bridge the gaps between Israel and Hamas. The two days of talks in Doha were more successful than expected. Israel showed a willingness to compromise on the main issues of controversy. But the bridging proposal the mediators were working on is nowhere near complete. Israel to send delegation to Cairo to close gaps before top mediators regroup to finalize deal US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will now Travel to Israel and several other Countries in the Middle East over the Weekend, with him expected to meet on 19 August 2024. The US confirms Blinken’s Israel trip was aimed at finalizing hostage deal.
The Israeli Broadcasting Authority quoted security officials as saying that the Israeli army's operations in the Gaza Strip have generally ended. The officials added that the security establishment informed the political leadership that the time had come to strike a deal to return the Israeli detainees. The same sources said that Israel could re-enter the Gaza Strip when new intelligence information becomes available.
Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran could be part of a larger scheme which may lead to integrate all the sub-conventional warfare in different regions from Lebanon to Yemen, Syria and Iraq, where Iran has anti-Israeli proxies, impacting internal security of different countries. Considering the ongoing Ukraine war and tensions between the US and non-Western states such as China in the Pacific and other regions (Africa, South America), Haniyeh’s assassination might signal “a global appetite for war”, says Muhammad Athar Javed, an independent security and defence analyst, who was a former International Security Program fellow at New America. “Iran must be embarrassed about what happened because he (Haniyeh) was attending the country’s new president’s oath-taking ceremony,” the analyst said.
Israel pushed Iran into a regional war with Haniyeh’s assassination, which is a major provocation, because of the location, the occasion, and the status of the targeted individual. Iranian leaders have already signaled to Israel that they will retaliate. “The Islamic Republic of Iran will defend its territorial integrity and honor, and make the terrorist invaders regret their cowardly action,” wrote Masoud Pezekshkian, Iran’s new president. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei also warned that Israel will receive a ‘harsh punishment’ from Iran, which is ‘duty-bound’ to ‘avenge’ the assassination.
Hezbollah and Israeli forces exchanged attacks across the Lebanon-Israel border 25 August 2024 in a marked escalation of the tit-for-tat engagement they have been undertaking since October 7. Hezbollah revealed details on the intended target of the group’s retaliatory strike for the killing of its top commander. Nasrallah said the target was a military intelligence headquarters, some 110km (68 miles) south of the border, deep inside Israel – just under 2km (1.2 miles) from the city of Tel Aviv. Hezbollah said that its attack was successful and that Israeli reports that this attack failed are simply not true. Nasrallah accused the Israeli government of hiding its losses and casualties.
Israeli fighter jets simultaneously launched more than 40 air strikes on 17 areas and towns in southern Lebanon.
Nasrallah also tried to make clear what the group meant when it said this was the initial phase of its retaliation. He explained that the initial phase was the launching of the 300 or so Katyusha rockets that targeted at least 11 Israeli military positions close to the border. He said the second stage of the attack was when they launched drones that, according to Hezbollah, hit that military intelligence headquarters. The clear message from Hezbollah is in many ways the retaliation is now over if, according to Nasrallah, it served its purpose. What he meant by that was if Hezbollah restored deterrence, Israel will no longer act with little restraint in Lebanon. So the hours and days to come will show whether or not this Hezbollah strike will hold Israel back and keep it from crossing red lines.
A US defense official confirmed to CNN that the United States helped Israel track Hezbollah attacks early Sunday morning, but the US military had no role in Israel's preemptive strikes on the Lebanese group. "We continue to monitor the situation closely, and remain well positioned and prepared to support Israel's defense against attacks by Iran and any of its proxies," the official said.
In recent weeks, the US military reinforced its presence in the Middle East, sending the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln to the region to join the Theodore Roosevelt, a squadron of Air Force F-22 Raptors, and a submarine armed with cruise missiles
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on 25 August 2024 ordered the presence of two aircraft carrier strike groups in the Middle East, the Pentagon says as it strengthens the US military presence amid soaring regional tensions. The announcement, made in a summary of a call between Austin and his Israeli counterpart, represents a shift. The Pentagon had initially deployed the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group into the region with a plan to replace the Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who arrived in Israel on Sunday 25 August 2024, travelled to Egypt on Tuesday as part of Washington's intensifying diplomatic push to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza that will end the 10-month-old war between Israel and Hamas. US, Qatari and Egyptian mediators have said negotiations to clinch a ceasefire in the more than 10-month-old war were making progress, and US President Joe Biden said "we are closer than we have ever been". Hamas leader Sami Abu Zuhri accused the US of trying to impose "diktats" in the negotiations. Zuhri undercut the cautious optimism, telling AFP that signs of progress after two days of talks in Doha were "an illusion".
Israel and Hamas are trading accusations of obstructing a truce agreement, 11 months after the start of the war, at a time when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing internal pressure to conclude an agreement that would release the hostages who were kidnapped during the attack. These pressures on Netanyahu increased following the discovery of the bodies of 6 hostages in a tunnel in the southern Gaza Strip, who were executed by Hamas, according to the Israeli authorities. Netanyahu noted on 04 September 2024 that one of the points on which the negotiations are stumbling is the number of Palestinian prisoners who will be released from Israeli prisons in exchange for every hostage that Hamas will release, and Israel's refusal to release some of the prisoners that Hamas is demandin Netanyahu said in a statement to the American Fox News network on 05 September 2024: "There is no agreement close. Unfortunately, we are not close, but we will do everything to push them to accept an agreement that allows at the same time to prevent Iran from rearming Gaza." He added, "Asking Israel to make concessions after this crime means sending a message to Hamas that whenever it kills hostages, it will get concessions, and this is wrong." However, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby, in response to journalists' questions about the agreement, confirmed to the contrary that saying that "90 percent of the agreement is almost done is accurate. I think we are close to that," noting that "the framework has been agreed upon, and the discussion is now about implementing the details, especially with regard to the exchange" of hostages and prisoners. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called on Israel and Hamas on to reach a ceasefire agreement in Gaza and find solutions to "remaining issues," noting that this could allow for moving forward on the "normalization path" with Saudi Arabia. "I think if we can get a ceasefire in Gaza, we can move forward on the path to normalization," Blinken added. He stressed that "about 90 percent of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza has been agreed upon, but there are still very important issues pending," including the issue of the Philadelphi (Salah al-Din) axis on the southern tip of the Gaza Strip on the border with Egypt. He pointed out that Washington will put more ideas on the negotiating table in the coming days. Blinken added: "I expect in the coming days that we will convey to Israel and they (Qatar and Egypt) will convey to Hamas our ideas, the three of us, on how to resolve it." Sources told the Israeli Broadcasting Authority that the Israeli army "decided to change the methods" it relies on in fighting inside the tunnels in the Gaza Strip, in order to preserve the lives of the kidnapped people, after 6 of them were killed inside one of the tunnels about a week ago, and Hamas announced the issuance of "new instructions" to the hostages' guards. Israeli officials said that the fighting "will become more difficult and complicated, because the message that Hamas sent (by killing the six) is that if the Israeli army continues its underground operations, it will cause the deaths of kidnapped soldiers." The Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth revealed the features of the fourth phase of the war on the Gaza Strip, which depends on a new strategy in combat. According to a report prepared for Al Jazeera by Salam Khader, the newspaper explained that this stage, although its details are not yet complete, is based primarily on fighting exclusively on the ground. The Israeli army will rely on intelligence information to carry out offensive operations against Palestinian resistance factions, and the main goal of this new tactic is to try to prevent the resistance from using or exiting the tunnels, which Israel considers to be a highly important infrastructure in fighting the occupation forces. Israeli security and military levels believe that the resistance fighters remaining in the tunnels for a long period of time would put military and political pressure on them, which might push the political leadership of the resistance to accept the terms of a ceasefire.
Mlitary and strategic expert Colonel Hatem Karim Al-Falahi said that the appointment of a military governor by the occupation for the Gaza Strip during the past few days indicates that the war has moved to a new phase of escalation on the part of the Israeli army. He added - during the military analysis section - that the fourth phase of the operations announced by the occupation builds on the previous phases, noting that the occupation seeks to work through two plans in the sector in the next phase.
He explained that Plan A will depend on mobile offensive operations that penetrate areas that have not been entered before and will depend on intelligence information. He pointed out a major fallacy in this plan, which the occupation announced would "avoid the locations of the prisoners," wondering why the occupation did not retrieve them if it knew where they were being held.
As for Plan B, Al-Falahi indicated that it depends on moving through the Netzarim and Philadelphi axes , carrying out offensive operations in multiple areas, searching for tunnels, and forcing the resistance not to move through continuous monitoring by drones and satellites, in addition to using agents and spies. The military expert pointed out that Plan B talks about forcing the residents of the north to move towards the central region via the coastal road, as part of what was called the “Heroes’ Plan,” with the aim of completely evacuating the north, to provide opportunities for the Israeli families who were displaced to return to their homes in the border area.
On 07 September 2024, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that "Islamic countries must form an alliance against the growing expansionist threat of Israel," noting that the steps his country has recently taken to improve its relations with Egypt and Syria "aimed to form a guarantor line" against that threat. After adding that "the expansionist threat also threatens Lebanon and Syria," he stressed that "the step of forming the alliance is the only one that will stop Israeli state terrorism," as he put it. The call made by Erdogan regarding “forming an Islamic alliance against Israel” falls within the framework of “two approaches” as viewed by researchers and observers. Despite the existence of a “huge gap” obstructing the process of implementing it on the ground, the idea carries within it, on the other hand, implications related to “timing.” The Turkish president's call reflects, on the one hand, Turkey's approach to the Palestinian issue from the perspective of the need for a unified Islamic position in supporting the Palestinians in this war. On the other hand, it reflects Ankara's aspirations to maximize its role in the Middle East, by strengthening its relations with the influential Arab powers in the region. The Turkish position towards Israel "did not go beyond the framework of harsh statements and speeches during the past months. The Washington Post quoted sources 07 September 2024 as saying that US officials have indefinitely postponed presenting a final proposal to Hamas and Israel regarding a prisoner exchange deal and a ceasefire. The newspaper also quoted an unnamed American official as saying that Hamas's submission of a new request earlier this week made reaching an agreement complicated. The official said that Hamas' request came as negotiators in Washington, Doha and Cairo were working on the details of the proposal, and he pointed out that Hamas' request came at a time when negotiations were already faltering due to demands made by Netanyahu.
The official said, according to the newspaper, "We believe that a number of the seven remaining American hostages in Gaza are still alive," stressing the continuation of work to reach an agreement as long as there is a chance, even if it is slim. The American official considered Hamas' request to exchange civilian detainees for Palestinian militants sentenced to life in prison to be "toxic," as he put it.
The United States is preparing for the possibility that negotiations for a ceasefire and the release of kidnapped soldiers in the Gaza Strip could collapse, amid fears of a wider regional conflict. "If negotiations freeze or stop altogether, what will be the impact on tensions in the region, and what are the things we need to do to prepare for such a change?" Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff CQ Brown told the Financial Times .
A foreign diplomat involved in negotiations for a cease-fire deal told Haaretz 08 September 2024: "We are not progressing anywhere," and added that "the decision on whether to publish the final draft" of the proposal mediators are currently working on, "which is supposed to bridge the gaps between Hamas and Israel, is delayed because we feel that neither side wants to adopt it." Another source said, "Our impression is that it would be possible to execute a deal, but it will only happen when both sides decide they are interested in it. That is not the case at the moment. There are logical solutions to most disputes. As soon as Netanyahu and Sinwar signal that they are interested, it will be possible to move forward."
"While the Israeli media this weekend concerned itself, with infinite seriousness, with the mud ball allegedly thrown at Itamar Ben-Gvir at the beach, the entire country continued to sink into the real mud, courtesy of the national security minister and his partners: that is, the project of turning the West Bank into Gaza and Gaza into the West Bank" – Noa Landau
A report by the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth said that one of the main reasons leading to the escalation of resistance in the occupied West Bank is the plans and provocations of the Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben-Gvir , and the Minister of Finance , Bezalel Smotrich . The report quoted senior Israeli army officers accusing the two extremist ministers in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government of "trying to ignite a war of Gog and Magog," as they believe that by escalating against the Palestinians, they will cause their expulsion from Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip, and then it will be possible to achieve the vision of Greater Israel under exclusive Jewish control. They also point to their attempts to change the status quo in the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, which would increase the difficulties facing the occupation army and prompt some senior officers to consider resigning. The Israeli army is refraining from carrying out the arrests requested by the Shin Bet throughout Judea and Samaria, simply because it does not have enough detention facilities that the Minister of National Security and his ministry were supposed to provide.
While the political-security cabinet was delaying making a decision to include the north as part of the war's objectives, by 08 September 2024 Chief of Staff Major General Herzi Halevi defined the return of security that would allow the return of residents to their homes on the northern border as the IDF's war objective. A series of offensive plans have been prepared in Lebanon, and the IDF is already at a high level of readiness to act in the sector. The army said that the decision to act is now in the hands of the political echelon.
In the shadow of the reports of failure in the attempt to reach a hostage deal, there were great efforts in the IDF to reach the Sinwar brothers. The elimination of the Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip will dramatically affect the ability to reach a deal and allow the IDF to evacuate to the north under much more favorable conditions. Defense Minister Yoav Galant stated today during a tour of the Netzer axis in the Gaza Strip that if the abductee deal actually collapses - Israel will have to go north, but will do so under conditions that will be more complicated because the fighting in Gaza will continue all the time.
"We in Gaza need to achieve our two goals - both to eliminate Hamas and to return the abductees, and we are on this matter with all our might," Gallant said. "At the same time as this topic, we are looking at the entire war scene, and that means that while you are fighting here in Gaza, we are preparing for anything that can happen in the north, and the transfer of a center of gravity can be quick and can also include you, on a short schedule, and we are prepared for all these possibilities."
According to estimates from the IDF, there are only a few hundred Hezbollah fighters left along the border, compared to over 2,400 before October 7, The current estimates by the IDF indicate that nearly a fifth of Hezbollah's short-range rockets have been neutralized. Contrary to previous assessments reporting an arsenal of 180,000 projectiles, Israeli intelligence services estimate, that before the August 25 strike, Hezbollah had only 40,000 short-range rockets and 5,000 medium-range rockets. Despite these successes, Israeli authorities acknowledge that conditions are not optimal for a large-scale operation in Lebanon, particularly due to the loss of the element of surprise and wear on the forces on both the southern and northern fronts.
The Palestinian delegation was expected to bring to the vote in the General Assembly a plan against Israel based on the opinion of the International Court of Justice. The measures proposed by the Palestinians against Israel:
- Stopping the transfer of weapons to Israel that are suspected of being used in Judea and Samaria.
- A demand to end the Israeli presence in the territories of Judea and Samaria within six months of the adoption of the decision.
- Avoiding trade with Israel that is related in a certain way to Judea and Samaria.
- The withdrawal of the military forces from Judea and Samaria, the evacuation of settlements and the handing over of the territories to the Palestinians.
- Imposing sanctions on senior officials responsible for maintaining the Israeli presence in Judea and Samaria, including banning entry into the countries and freezing assets.
Israel's ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon, attacked the Palestinian delegation and called on the UN General Assembly to "outright reject this shameful resolution and instead adopt a resolution condemning Hamas, calling on it to release all the abductees immediately. To be clear - nothing will stop the Israel and will not deter it in its mission to return all the abductees and defeat Hamas."
Hamas was hoping for an escalation in the West Bank and Lebanon and was therefore hardening conditions on prisoners. Netanyahu didn’t want his coalition to fall and was therefore hardening conditions on Philadelphi.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant asserted on 09 September 2024 that the Hamas was no longer capable of maintaining an organized fighting force in the Gaza Strip after more than 11 months of war. “Hamas as a military formation no longer exists. Hamas is engaged in guerrilla warfare and we are still fighting Hamas terrorists and pursuing Hamas leadership,” he told foreign journalists at his office at Israel Defense Forces headquarters in Tel Aviv.
He made the comments in the context of promoting a potential ceasefire agreement that would see the 101 remaining hostages, both alive and dead, released in exchange for many more Palestinian terrorists in Israeli prisons. “Achieving an agreement is also a strategic opportunity that gives us a high chance to change the security situation on all fronts,” he added, with the Jewish state also facing threats from Iran’s regional proxies, including in the north from Hezbollah. “Israel should achieve an agreement that will bring about a pause for six weeks and bring back hostages,” he said. Gallant said bringing the hostages home is “the right thing to do.”
“The pursuit of Hamas terrorists will continue for years to come—from the most senior ones to the terrorists in the field. We must remember at any given time—and you were here on Oct. 7—we need to remember what Hamas did to us,” said Gallant. “We must eliminate any terrorist who murdered children, raped women and kidnapped the elderly. We must also deter anyone who may attempt to conduct such heinous acts in the future,” he added.
Israeli Army Radio quoted an officer in the Southern Command 11 September 2024, described as senior without mentioning his name, as saying that "neutralizing Hamas' military and governmental capabilities requires another year." The officer claimed that the Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, "suffered a fatal blow in all the brigades that were damaged to the point of disintegration, and today operate as a group of fighters who carry out guerrilla warfare as a major form of combat." In contrast, he noted that "the ruling regime is alive, and it is possible to damage Hamas so that it will not be able to recover anymore." He also claimed that "within a year Hamas will be a weak body, the Israeli army will have complete freedom of action in the Gaza Strip , and there will be a significant reduction in the risks to the settlements adjacent to the Gaza Strip." The officer stressed that "the Southern Command has set an ambitious goal of zero rockets from Hamas, and we have not reached this situation yet, but we are on the way to this goal," he said.
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