Operation Iron Swords - Day 3 - 09 October 2023

Palestinian armed group Hamas launched thousands of missiles at Israel and deployed its militants to infiltrate Jewish settlements near the country’s border with Gaza on 07 October 2023. The 700 Israelis killed on the first day would be the equivalent of 21,000 Americans killed in an attack, as a proportion to Israel’s population of 9.3 million people (compared to 332 million in the USA). sraeli President Isaac Herzog stated: “Not since the Holocaust have so many Jews been killed in one day".

"Russia is interested in triggering a war in the Middle East, so that a new source of pain and suffering could undermine world unity, increase discord and contradictions, and thus help Russia destroy freedom in Europe. We see Russian propagandists gloating. We see Moscow's Iranian friends openly supporting those who attacked Israel. And all of this is a much greater threat than the world currently perceives. The world wars of the past started with local aggressions." Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated in his video address.

The White House has clarified that it will not dispatch American soldiers to support Israel in the ongoing conflict. The United States had expressed unwavering support for Israel’s right to defend itself against Hamas. However, the line has been drawn at sending American troops to participate in the war. This distinction underscores the delicate balance the U.S. is trying to maintain while navigating this complex geopolitical landscape.

The official death toll in the Gaza Strip rose to at least 560, according to the Palestinian territory's Health Ministry, as Israel attacked Hamas targets in Gaza for the third consecutive day. Another 2,900 people in Gaza have also been reported injured. Israel has killed at least 704 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank since October 7, according to the health ministry. An estimated 800 people in Israel have been killed, as well as four Hezbollah fighters in Israeli shelling of southern Lebanon.

An all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah – backed by Palestinian factions – is a possible scenario that could drag Lebanon and the region into a catastrophic conflict. The armed wing of Islamic Jihad has taken responsibility for a failed effort to infiltrate Israel from neighbouring Lebanon. “Al-Quds Brigade claims responsibility for the afternoon operation on the south Lebanon border,” the armed group said in a statement. Earlier in the day, the Israeli military said it had “killed a number of militants” who crossed into Israel from Lebanese territory. The armed wing of the Shiite Hezbollah party denied any involvement in the border shootout reported by the Israeli side. This was stated by a representative of the military information service of the Shiite party to the Al Nashra news portal.

Whether a broader conflagration actually unfolds could depend on the next steps Israel takes. “A conflict on that scale will be much more likely if [Israeli Prime Minister] Benjamin Netanyahu is able to form a unity government,” said Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow with Carnegie Middle East Center, a Beirut-based think-tank.

Palestinian factions in Lebanon are eager to open a second front against Israel if the Shia-backed group Hezbollah leads the charge, fighters and analysts said. “Wherever [Israel] is ready for [the fight] to happen, it will happen,” said Ahmed Habet, a member of the Palestinian party Fatah in Burj al-Barajneh, a refugee camp in Lebanon’s capital Beirut. “I’m the blood of my homeland. I live for my homeland. I don’t live for the future,” he added. “We are ready [to fight Israel] at any time,” said Habet. “Palestinians in Lebanon are suffering from living on land that is not ours. We are all looking forward to the next life.”

Hezbollah may also launch a direct attack if Israel seriously escalates its operations on the Gaza Strip, according to Ahmed Abed, an official for Hamas’s branch in Lebanon. “Hezbollah … decided that they will engage [Israel] if the retaliation against Gaza is excessive. They said they are coordinating with the leadership of [Hamas] in Palestine and that they will intervene at the right time [if need be],” he told Al Jazeera.

Hezbollah is capable of launching a sophisticated attack if it chooses, according to Nicholas Blanford, a Beirut-based expert with the Atlantic Council. “The Hamas operation is bigger by far than any single operation carried out by Hezbollah [against Israel], although the tactics Hamas used were straight from Hezbollah’s guidebook,” he said. “Hezbollah has been training for these kinds of border-breaching missions since at least 2007.”

“Israel used to be risk averse and prefer precision attacks [in Lebanon] than all-out war that impacts their economy and security. But with Israeli cities supremely impacted [by Hamas attacks from Gaza], there is no need for caution on Netanyahu’s side,” Mohanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center said.

IDF Spokesman, Brigadier General Daniel Hagari said : "The rate of attacks is 5 times what was on Hezbollah in the Second Lebanon War. Just at this hour, 60 fighter jets are completing an attack in the Rimal neighborhood in the heart of Gaza City. There are no terrorists crossing the fence from Gaza into the State of Israel. Israel. We are prepared in the entire fence area with tanks and planes, we have no time or ability limit." The rate of mobilization is very fast, faster than any event in the past, we have mobilized over 300,000 reservists.

Israel’s air force has a focus on attacking and destroying underground tunnels and uranium enrichment facilities in Iran, and it has a wide range of increasingly sophisticated munitions at its disposal. They are made in the United States and domestically. Israel’s reported use of these weapons in the latest fighting are an indication of its military targeting Hamas positions underground. During the 2014 Gaza War, Israeli troops were trapped and killed in tunnels while trying to target Hamas. The use of the bunker busters, therefore, allows the Israeli army to attack Hamas from a distance without risking their own forces. Israel will likely continue to use the bombs because Hamas knows the network of tunnels best, better than Israeli forces could hope to ever navigate them themselves.

Ground penetration munitions are not only effective against tunnel complexes and underground factories but also in demolishing high buildings and towers. The bomb can enter the top of the building and penetrate all the way to the foundation, collapsing the entire building rather than blowing it up.

IDF Chief of Staff for fighters in the field : "After a difficult start, we are shaping the contact line. We hit a lot of terrorists - whoever gets close, they kill him. We will finish purifying the area, so that we will not have terrorists here, and we are at the same time already on the attack. We have many more tasks, we need to be strong. It started badly, and will end very badly on the other side."

"We are here in Kibbutz Nahal-Oz, which I had the privilege of helping restore as much as possible within the area itself," says the Givat patrol commander, Lt. Col. Ziv Boanish, "I received a mission - 'Go conquer Nahal Oz, kill everyone who needs to be killed, save as many residents as possible.'" Lt. Col. Boanish continued "We shout, 'The IDF, the IDF, the Givati patrol,' and the residents do not open their doors for us, understanding that this is what the terrorists did to them".

"We killed around 20 terrorists," added the commander of the Givat patrol, "I started a chase almost to the fence, and I was able to both kill their cover squad, and also prevent the kidnapping incident itself. Today we are finishing the last step for us in this part, which is to make sure that we have finished scanning that we have no voids In the settlement that we missed, and that everyone arrives for the burial properly."

The Wall Street Journal cited several sources, including unnamed members of the Hamas and Hezbollah militant groups, as saying that officers from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had helped to plan the attack on Israel since August. It also “gave the green light” for the operation at a meeting in Beirut, Lebanon last 02 October 2023. Ghazi Hamad, a Hamas spokesman, told the BBC that the militants had “direct backing” from Iran. However, Ali Baraka, another Hamas official, insisted in an interview with NBC News that Tehran had not been notified about 'Operation Al-Aqsa Flood' beforehand. “It was a surprise to everyone, including Iran,” he said.

Iranian-designed weapons played a key role in the Hamas operation. The attack used new ‘Rajum’ missiles, which may have been more difficult to intercept compared to older projectiles, it said. US intelligence said it is assessing alleged Iranian involvement. Tehran has praised Hamas for its raid, but has denied claims that it directly assisted it.

Tehran denied accusations that it helped Palestinian militants to plan the surprise attack on Israel. “The decisions made by the Palestinian resistance are fiercely autonomous and unwaveringly aligned with the legitimate interests of the Palestinian people,” Iran’s mission to the UN said in a statement to the media. “We are not involved in Palestine’s response, as it is taken solely by Palestine itself.”

A senior Israeli political official said Tel Aviv has information to indicate that Iran pushed Hamas into action and is pushing Hezbollah to prepare for the campaign. Iran urged Lebanon’s Hezbollah to prepare for potential conflict with Israel, the Times of Israel cited a senior Israeli government source as saying. The source also said that Israel has gathered intelligence suggesting Iran influenced Hamas in carrying out its recent attack on Israel.

White House national security spokesperson John Kirby accused Iran of being “complicit” in Hamas’s attack on Israel, but he said Washington does not have evidence linking Tehran to the assault. “Iran has long supported Hamas and other terrorist networks throughout the region with resources, capabilities training,” John Kirby told MSNBC. “And so in that regard, clearly Iran is complicit here. But in terms of specific evidence on this – these sorts of attacks – no, we don’t have anything,” he said.

Almost 2 thousand fighters are involved in the operation against Israel, and there are 40 thousand of them in the Gaza Strip, the Associated Press reports , citing Ali Baraka, a member of the leadership of the Palestinian movement abroad. "Hamas has so far deployed a small number of its forces. He (Baraka) said that almost 2,000 Hamas fighters took part in the latest battles out of a 40,000-strong army in the Gaza Strip alone," the agency said in a statement. Baraka added that only a small number of commanders in the Gaza Strip knew about the start time of the operation. Moreover, even Hamas’s closest allies were not informed about it in advance.

Hamas refused a cease-fire in exchange for wounded and captured Israeli officers, Hazem Qassem said and said: "There is no question of a cease-fire and that this time we are going to the final victory." The negotiations were led by Egyptian negotiators, and Anthony Blinken mediated in calming the tensions, to which "Hamas" replied that they had the initiative and that it would be buying time because they had received information that Israel had sent 80 percent of the artillery ammunition to Ukraine and they they have this knowledge that now Israel wants to "buy time", according to the "Wall Street Journal"

Hamas’s Qassam Brigades threatened to execute Israeli captives if Israel continues to bombard and kill civilians in Gaza. “Any targeting of innocent civilians without warning will be met regretfully by executing one of the captives in our custody, and we will be forced to broadcast this execution,” said Abu Obeida, a spokesman for Hamas’ Qassam Brigades. “We regret this decision but we hold the Zionist enemy and their leadership the responsibility for this,” he said.

The Israeli army radio reported that Israeli airstrikes on Gaza will continue even at the cost of harming Israeli captives in Gaza. “Attacks on the Gaza Strip will be carried out powerfully and widely, even at the cost of harming Israeli hostages who are in captivity in Gaza. If there is accurate intelligence information about the location of the captives. Certainly Israel will refrain from attacking that location, but as long as such information does not exist, all Hamas targets will be attacked.”

Hind Khoudary, a journalist in Gaza, has described the situation in the enclave as “very dangerous”. “I saw thousands of Palestinian refugees in UNRWA schools without electricity, without water, without food. Everyone was saying that they can’t even afford water, they left their homes after receiving those text messages from the Israeli army that they needed to leave their houses,” she told Al Jazeera. “At the same time, there is no safe space for Palestinians to go, even the UNRWA schools,” Khoudary said, referring to schools run by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East.

Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan reiterated the Kingdom’s stance against the targeting of civilians during discussions on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with his French counterpart. In a phone call with Catherine Colonna, Prince Faisal addressed the ongoing situation in Gaza and emphasized the imperative to de-escalate the conflict, the Saudi foreign ministry said. The ministry highlighted Prince Faisal’s emphasis on the Kingdom’s opposition to any harm to civilians and the importance of all parties involved adhering to international humanitarian law.

The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia had a telephone conversation with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, during which the parties discussed the situation in the Gaza Strip. As reported by the Saudi Press Agency, Mohammed bin Salman assured Abbas that "the kingdom will continue to support the Palestinian people in realizing their legitimate rights to live in dignity and achieving a just and lasting peace."

Meanwhile, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on Hamas and Israel to immediately end the violence and protect civilians, according to the Egyptian presidency. In a phone call, both leaders agreed civilians should not be exposed to “further risks and loss of life”, a presidency spokesman said.

In Russian pro-Kremlin media, three main theses are being shared: That it is mistakes by the West that have led to the escalation, that wars have become the norm, and Russians who went to Israel because of the war against Ukraine will now return. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who is currently the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, has pounced on the theory that the West, particularly the United States, is responsible for Hamas' attack on Israel. He said in his Telegram channel that the US was a "decisive player," making a geographic connection to Russia's war against Ukraine. He pointed out that the Middle East conflict was what "Washington and its allies should have been dealing with." Instead, the "wackos" had "interfered with us by helping the neo-Nazis divide two peoples [Russians and Ukrainians] who are close to each other."

The Kremlin will attempt to leverage the Hamas militants’ attack on Israel to advance its information operations aimed at diminishing U.S. and Western support and attention towards Ukraine, as stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), The Gaze reported. Analysts note that the Kremlin has already utilized, and is likely to continue using, Hamas attacks on Israel to promote information operations aimed at reducing U.S. and Western support and attention towards Ukraine. In Russia, Western nations have been accused of showing disrespect for conflicts in the Middle East in favor of supporting Ukraine. It has been claimed that the international community will soon cease to focus on Ukraine.

Dmitry Medvedev, the Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, stated that the United States and its allies should focus on “Palestinian-Israeli settlement” rather than interfering in Russia’s affairs and providing military assistance to Ukraine. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs also accused the West of obstructing the efforts of the necessary “quartet” of Russia, the United States, the European Union, and the United Nations, which has led to an escalation of violence in Israel.

Russian propagandist Sergey Mardan stated that Russia stands to gain from the escalation as the world will “temporarily turn away from Ukraine and again engage in extinguishing the eternal fire in the Middle East.”

ISW experts argue that these Kremlin narratives are aimed at Western audiences to drive a wedge in military support for Ukraine, attempting to demoralize Ukrainian society by asserting that Ukraine will lose international support. Furthermore, these narratives intend to convince the Russian domestic audience that the international community will ignore Ukraine’s military efforts.

Many Russian “war correspondents” have primarily focused on the Hamas attacks in Israel on October 7, with some contributing to Kremlin’s information operations, claiming that Western attention has shifted from Ukraine to Israel. As previously reported by The Gaze, dozens of armed Palestinian terrorists from Gaza infiltrated Israel on the morning of October 7 after a two-hour mass rocket barrage. They opened fire on civilians from vehicles, prompting the Israel Defense Forces to respond with an attack on the Gaza Strip and the mobilization of reserve battalions.

Russia transferred weapons to Hamas to "support" fakes that the Kremlin is desperately spreading about military aid to Ukraine, Ukraine's Permanent Representative to the UN Sergiy Kyslytsya has said. According to an Ukrinform correspondent, he said this at a meeting of the UN Security Council. "As part of the Kremlin's disinformation campaigns, these fakes can be used as a basis for so-called 'investigations' in the Western information space. To make these fakes more convincing, Russia can use a defector from the Ukrainian border service, Ruslan Syrovyi, who turned out to be a long-time Russian agent," Kyslytsya said.

China is deeply concerned about the intensification of tensions and the rise in violence between Palestine and Israel, and it's profoundly saddened by the civilian casualties caused by the conflict, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said, calling for immediate ceasefire and de-escalation of the situation. In response to a question about whether the Chinese government considered the attacks launched by Hamas against most civilians as acts of terrorism, the spokesperson said China has made clear its position on the current escalation of the situation between Palestine and Israel, and are deeply concerned about rising tensions and violence and saddened that the conflict caused civilian casualties. We oppose and condemn the harm to civilians, and we think the top priority is ceasefire as soon as possible, to restore peace and work together to cool the situation, the spokesperson said.

Chinese experts believed that it is natural and realistic for Ukraine to be concerned about reduced attention from the US after the outbreak of a fresh but escalating military conflict in the Middle East, given its already tight budget and growing protests domestically demanding the reduction in aid to Ukraine. As the US sends an aircraft carrier, war ships and jets to aid Israel after Hamas' unprecedented surprise attack near the Gaza Strip, think tanks and observers are wondering if the Palestine-Israel conflict will shift the focus and change the course on the battlefield of Ukraine, as the US finds itself in "a dilemma between an already stretched military aid capacity and the need to assert hegemony in every corner of the world". Li Haidong, a professor at the China Foreign Affairs University, noted that the changing dynamics in the Middle East do have an impact on the current situation in Ukraine, but only to a limited extent, as the US may pressurize its allies to provide assistance to Kiev, although European countries will also divert some attention to supporting Israel.

Despite the political deadlock in the US Congress, Gregory Meeks — the top Democrat in the House Committee on Foreign Affairs — said that lawmakers will ensure Israel “has what it needs” for the war in Gaza. Meeks said he and his Republican counterpart on the foreign policy panel are readying a pro-Israel resolution to be taken up after the House elects a new speaker. “You’ll see that when it comes to giving the finance that’s necessary, I hope that after the Republicans have chosen their speaker we won’t have an issue there,” Meeks told MSNBC.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced a blockade of Gaza amid intense fighting between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Hamas militants. It comes after the Palestinian group launched a massive assault against Israel on Saturday, killing and wounding hundreds of people. “I have ordered a complete siege to the Gaza Strip,” Gallant said following an assessment meeting at the IDF Southern Command on Monday. “There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everything is closed,” he added, as quoted by the Times of Israel. “We are fighting human animals and we are acting accordingly,” the minister reportedly added, apparently referring to the Hamas militants who have taken control of parts of Gaza.

Human Rights Watch (HRW) slammed as “abhorrent” Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant’s call for the imposition of a total siege on Gaza, including cutting off food, fuel and electricity. “Depriving the population in occupied territory of food and electricity is collective punishment, which is a war crime, as is using starvation as a weapon of war,” Omar Shakir, Israel and Palestine director at HRW, said in a statement. “The International Criminal Court should take note of this call to commit a war crime.”

Israel’s chief military spokesperson, Daniel Hagari, also stated that Israel had regained control of all towns on the Gaza border and that there is little to no fighting in the communities which were overrun by Hamas militants during the weekend’s assault. “It is possible there are still terrorists in the area,” Hagari admitted, stating that clashes between the IDF and Hamas fighters have been “isolated.”

Israel could have lost six Merkava tanks and 17 armored personnel carriers in a day as a result of a Hamas attack, such conclusions were voiced by David Hambling in Forbes. “According to unconfirmed early reports, Israel lost as many as six Merkavas and seventeen armored personnel carriers,” the author writes, citing a count by Finnish military expert Emil Kastehelmi as of the evening of October 7. As Hambling pointed out, the "stunning attack" caught Israel by surprise, with the Palestinians knocking out IDF tanks with small drones. Videos distributed on social networks show that many Israeli armored vehicles were destroyed or damaged, including Merkava tanks of the latest modification Mk.4.

Avichay Adraee, Israel’s military spokesperson to the Arab world, made an appearance on Al Jazeera Arabic, where he said that the Israeli army has its eyes “wide open to any development on all front”, in response to a question about the situation on the Israeli-Lebanese border. Adraee added that any infringement on Israeli sovereignty would be addressed with “direct and strong action”. He explained that although Israel was focused on Gaza, it was also vigilant and prepared for any developments along the northern border.

Netanyahu warned Hamas that Israel has "only started" its offensive in the Gaza Strip. "What we will do to our enemies in the coming days will reverberate with them for generations," he said in a nationalized television address. He also called on the opposition to form a unity government. "I call on opposition leaders to immediately form an emergency government of national unity without any preconditions," Netanyahu said. Opposition figures already expressed that they were considering a unity government but with conditions such as limiting the government's role to strategic issues only.

Israeli media reported that Israel had hit 1,000 targets in Gaza, adding that the military has announced it will continue hitting the territory, even if it comes at the cost of harming Israeli captives in the enclave. Israeli army radio reports that Israel’s war as defined by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is to deprive Hamas of the capacity to harm Israel. “If there is accurate intelligence information about the location of Israeli captives, certainly Israel will refrain from attacking that location, but as long as such information does not exist, all Hamas targets will be attacked.”

Reporting from Gaza, Al Jazeera’s Tareq Abu Azzoum says the Palestinian territory is witnessing heavy bombardment on a scale not seen in previous wars with Palestinians’ homes and civilian infrastructure targeted by missile fire. “The Israeli army went mad against the Gaza Strip. The Israeli occupation air force has managed to carry out dozens and hundreds of strikes against Gaza’s civilian infrastructures and residential areas,” he said.

Netanyahu said that his country's response to the onslaught by Hamas will "change the Middle East," as the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) targeted the Gaza Strip with air strikes. "What Hamas will experience will be difficult and terrible ... we are going to change the Middle East," Netanyahu told officials in the south of Israel. "This is only the beginning... we are all with you and we will defeat them with force, enormous force."