World War III.2

Russia’s military assault on Ukraine on 24 February 2022 marked a turning point in European and global security and ended more than four decades of the post-Cold War era. The war, designated by Russian President Vladimir Putin as a ‘special military operation’ to ‘de-nazi-fy’ and demilitarize Ukraine, surprised many in the international community.

Warnings of a potential global conflict were voiced repeatedly over the past two years, since the start of the Ukraine conflict in 2022. While Moscow has warned that growing Western involvement could spark a global war, and some Western analysts have said that a Russian victory will inevitably lead to this outcome. A world war has already begun, given the scope of Russian aggression and NATO and EU involvement.

Biden began to shape his foreign policy with the thesis "about the global struggle between democracy and autocracy" at the beginning of his presidency. Before Russia's large-scale aggression against Ukraine, the West preferred to see a lot of shades of grey, but did not want to see black itself. Now they have begun to see the black. Finally they call an aggressor an aggressor, a totalitarian regime a totalitarian regime, terrorists terrorists, and a crime a crime. This polarization is much better.

The societies of the states that make up the backbone of the democratic world had been metastasizing the 'resting on their laurels' after the victory in the Cold War. The experience of Trump's forcing NATO member states to invest 2% of their budgets in their own security, which turned out to be a complete failure, showed that the Western world was not ready to wake up from a lethargic sleep in the fog of pacifism.

Israel’s war against Hamas deepened the international faultlines set during Russia’s war in Ukraine, as both sides sought to entrench an increasingly polarised pattern of global allegiances during the 87th week of the Ukraine war. US President Joe Biden tarred Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Hamas, which the United States and the European Union consider a terrorist group, with the same brush after visiting Israel on October 18.

“Hamas and Putin represent different threats, but they share this in common: They both want to completely annihilate a neighbouring democracy,” Biden said in a primetime Oval Office speech watched by 20 million people. Washington’s European allies, who have stood behind Ukraine, also paid visits to Israel in a show of solidarity that simultaneously cemented their geopolitical allegiance. Biden further joined the Ukrainian and Israeli causes in Congress last week by seeking $105bn in new funding for them in a single bill, calling it “a smart investment that’s going to pay dividends for American security for generations”.

"We’re facing an inflection point in history. One of those moments where the decisions we make today are going to determine the future for decades to come... History has taught us that when terrorists don’t pay a price for their terror, when dictators don’t pay a price for their aggression, they cause more chaos and death and more destruction. Hamas and Putin represent different threats, but they share this in common: they both want to completely annihilate a neighboring democracy." President Joe Biden emphasized that by defending allies such as Ukraine and Israel, the United States is safeguarding freedom and democracy and simultaneously making a substantial commitment to its own security. The speaker stressed that globally, it should be the United States leading the way, not Russia, not Iran, and not China.

Some compared Biden's address to Churchill's Fulton speech. But others compared it to Franklin Roosevelt's famous speech in December 1940, when he called the United States the "arsenal of democracy" and emphasized the need for comprehensive support from the UK. "Just as in World War II, today, patriotic American workers are building the arsenal of democracy and serving the cause of freedom". In 1947, Harry Truman delivered his historic doctrine, in which he called on the Western world to unite against the expansion of Soviet totalitarianism into Eastern Europe and to provide assistance to Greece and Turkey. Joe Biden, repeated the leitmotif of these theses.

Tthe American leader not only outlined the circle of outright enemies of democracy and the Free World. He committed himself to defeat them. This is a direct challenge that no one hadr dared to make before. The historical context of those times and the present is different. 75 years ago, it was clear who the two non-alternative poles of power were. The United States and the USSR were the "bloc-forming" states. Now everything is much more complicated.

China and Russia, too, have sought to close ranks, saying they will focus on a “close coordination of efforts” to solve crises in the Middle East. Russia’s deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov met Zhai Jun, China’s special envoy for the Middle East, in Doha on the same day as Biden’s speech – October 20. Russia has also been tightening relations with Iran. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran on October 24 to “further build” their “multifaceted” partnership, Russia’s foreign ministry said in a statement. While supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon, a sworn enemy of Israel, Iran is also a supplier of Shahed kamikaze drones to Russia in its war in Ukraine. Russia now produces its own Shahed drones.

The US hegemon was Ukraine’s biggest weapons supplier by far, although the White House has at times underlined there is no blank cheque for Kyiv, as it does not want Ukraine to escalate the conflict to the point of risking World War III. World War III was the biggest war that never happened. World War III was a global conflict that began with the Soviet invasion of the Western Europe. World War III.2 began in 2022, and was fought between Russia and the Collective West, using many of the weapaons that were accumulated during the Cold War.

In the hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an invasion of Ukraine — although no country had declared war on Russia — many were asking: “Is this the start of World War III?” This act of war was intended to rewrite history, and upend the world balance of power. Brett Bruen, a former White House global engagement director who runs the Global Situation Room consultancy, stated “ there clearly is a worldwide war being waged on a range of fronts between democracies and authoritarian regimes. While they may not be fighting on the battlefield, they certainly are squaring off online and through regional conflicts in places like Ukraine and Afghanistan.”

Bryan Clark, a Hudson Institute senior fellow and a former director at the Chief of Naval Operations Strategic Studies Group, suggested, “This isn’t the start of World War III, at least in terms of how previous world wars played out. Russia can manage its operations in Ukraine to keep the conflict from escalating out of control, and the U.S., NATO and EU have reconciled themselves to not intervening militarily.” This could be, however, “the start of a long-term, slow-motion global confrontation between Russia and its Western neighbors, which could be complemented by conflict between China and its eastern neighbors,” Clark says.

World Wars I and II spanned multiple continents, while Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine was at first a war between two countries. Autocratic leaders – notably Russia and China – are united by a belief that it's time to re-shape the current world order, which emerged in the aftermath of World War II. They share a determination to reduce US and Western influence.

In a survey of more than 17,000 people across the world, three-quarters of respondents agreed with the statement, “I fear we are moving closer to World War III.” The findings are culled from the U.S. News & World Report Best Countries survey, which was fielded this year from April 30 to July 13 and is used for an annual, perception-based rankings of countries. The share of respondents who agreed that we’re heading toward global war rose above 80% in five countries: Indonesia, South Korea, Spain, Thailand and the United States.

US President hosted Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House on 21 December 2022. Biden did not name any individual countries, but claimed some European nations are hesitant about further escalating the conflict. He said: "They understand it fully, but they're not looking to go to war with Russia. They're not looking for a Third World War. There's more to say, but I probably already said too much."

World War 3 is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide large-scale military conflict subsequent to World War 1 and World War 2. Urging Germany to deliver Leopard 2 tanks to Kyiv, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said 17 January 2023 : "The defeat of Ukraine may become a prelude to World War III." Cold War II could become World War III in 2023 " with China as the arsenal of autocracy, according to Niall Ferguson.

The year 2022 was the year war made a comeback, world war could make a comeback, and Cold War II could become World War III. World War III, also written WW3 and WWIII, refers to a series of memes referencing the possibility of a third world war. The third world war is a hypothetical third armed conflict on a planetary scale after the First and Second World Wars. First mentioned since 1941, some people use the term to designate limited or smaller conflicts, such as the Cold War and the War on Terrorism, while others believe that such a conflict will surpass previous world wars both in scale and in its destructive impact.

The naming of wars, a and the delimitation of their timing, is an art not a science. There was no World War I until there was a World War II. At the time, what eventually became known as World War I was generally known as the Great War, and contemporaries had no idea they were living during World War I. While the beginning of the Great War is conventionally dated to 29 July 1914, the Balkan Wars which precipitated this cataclysm began some two years previously. And the beginning of the Second World War is dated as 01 September 1939, various regional wars of the preceeding four years set the stage for this conflagration.

As the Russo-Ukraine War reached its one-year anniversary, much of the world remained in a state of denial, refusing to call this World War III, which it gave every indication of being. It was not just a Russia-Ukraine war but a proxy Russia-NATO war. The conventional definition of a World War is that it involves the participation of multiple major powers in a global conflict. Nearly 50 countries had sent military or humanitarian aid to Ukraine, from every continent except Antarctica, which sounds like a world war. While NATO allies seem solidly behind the United States, the developing world is not. Their response is much more ambiguous. Taking developing countries into account, roughly 70% of the world population is not on the American side.

Russians have every incentive to speak of WWIII, as this highlights the magnitude of the struggle which Vladimir Putin unleashed. Just so do Westerners have incentive to avoid this term, and thus avoid accepting their status as co-belligerents in the war. The usage of the term "World War III" amplifies the credibility of Russian nuclear threats in an existential conflict, which the West is loath to do.

While it is easy to bandy about phrases such as “World War III”, it is naïve not to consider that the West is engaged in a global war. WWIII does not have to look or feel like it was made in Hollywood. Russia and China share an interest in diminishing U.S. hegemony. Russian success in Ukraine may embolden China to attempt to take Taiwan and encourage other potential aggressors in the world. India continued to purchase large amounts of Russian oil despite the American-imposed embargo. A Russian victory keeping one or more of the four oblasts it occupied in Ukraine, may serve to highlight the limits of American power.

US President Joe Biden, in his interview to CBS, in response to a journalist’s question whether the simultaneous support of Ukraine in the war with Russia and Israel in the conflict with Hamas is causing too much of a burden on the United States, and whether the United States is able to support Ukraine, Israel and its own defence simultaneously, he noted: ” We’re the United States of America for God’s sake, the most powerful nation in the history — not in the world, in the history of the world. We can take care of both of these and still maintain our overall international defence.”

And in his address to the American people from the Oval Office, President Biden emphasized that Hamas and Putin are similar in their criminal desire to destroy neighboring democracies. “History has taught us that when terrorists do not pay the price for their terror and dictators for their aggression, they cause even more chaos and deaths. They continue their actions, and the costs and threats to the US and the world only increase. So, if we do not curb Putin’s appetite for power and control in Ukraine, he won’t stop at just Ukraine”, the US President emphasized.

Representatives of the US State Department emphasize that the policy of simultaneous support for Israel and Ukraine is a priority for the United States. For example, in a telephone conversation with the head of the Foreign Affairs Minister of Ukraine, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken noted that the US will continue to provide Ukraine with the support it needs to protect its people.

US Defence Minister Lloyd Austin, while on a visit to Israel, repeated President Biden’s thesis almost verbatim. “The United States remains the most powerful country in the world and we remain fully able to project power and uphold our commitments and direct resources to multiple theatres. So we will stand with Israel even as we stand with Ukraine,” he said.

Similarly, commenting on the economic capacity of the United States to provide sufficient support to both countries, both US National Security Council Strategic Communications Coordinator John Kirby and US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan are unanimous: The United States has sufficient resources to simultaneously support Ukraine against Russian aggression and Israel in defence of their territory and citizens.

The struggle for the global redistribution of world influence on politics, defence, security and finance has begun. In addition to that, while ten years ago, economic levers were used, currently military methods are utilized. As Clausewitz said, war is simply the continuation of politics with the involvement of other means. This is our reality.

This is not a war against Israel or against Ukraine. This is a war for the reorganization of power in the world, for the redistribution of the global world order and a challenge to the West, because Israel and Ukraine are partners of the West. Ukraine is important because it provides security of the Euro-Atlantic region. Israel is important because it is an ally of the United States and the West.

This war has nothing to do with ideology or religion. This is a struggle for power, for control over resources and for influence on the world stage. Russia, as a country with significant resources and great influence, is trying to maintain its position and expand them thanks to an aggressive foreign policy.

Ukraine and Israel became victims of this war because of their partnership with the West. Russia is trying to destroy these partners in order to reduce the influence of the West on world politics and increase its own influence. Therefore, this war has global nature and can have serious consequences for the whole world. Therefore, the civilized world needs to continue to support Ukraine and Israel in their struggle for their independence and security, and to make efforts to reduce Russia’s influence on world politics.

On 20 October 2023 US President Joe Biden requested huge security allocations of approximately $106 billion, including $61 billion in military aid to Ukraine and $14 billion to Israel, without presenting a clear strategy for obtaining them from Congress. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that the funding request from Congress comes at a time when the world is witnessing an “inflection point” after the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) attack on Israel. He pointed out that Biden directed his team to take immediate measures to ensure that Israel gets what it needs to defend itself, stressing that the funding request will help enhance the security of embassies in Israel and neighboring countries in the face of threats, as he put it.

Director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, Shalanda Yang, said in a letter to Congress, “The world is watching and the American people rightly expect their leaders to unite to meet these priorities.” Biden's request came a day after he linked the Palestinian resistance's attack on Israel to what he described as the "Russian invasion of Ukraine" to convince Americans that the United States must play a leadership role at the global level. The US President stressed - in a speech in the Oval Office - that the funding will guarantee the interests of the United States for generations.

The huge aid package proposed by Biden links separate crises in the hope that the appeal for national unity in the United States will contribute to pushing Republicans in the House to put aside their differences. The package also includes allocating $13.6 billion to US border security to deal with the large numbers of migrants arriving from Latin America and the Caribbean on the southern border, as well as the fentanyl drug trade, and $4 billion in military aid and government funding aimed at confronting regional efforts made by China in Asia.

Zelenskyy said 04 November 2023 it was "Russia's goal" for the war between Israel and Islamist militant group Hamas to draw attention away from Ukraine. "Of course, it's clear that the war in the Middle East, this conflict, is taking away the focus," he said during a joint press conference with European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen in Kyiv. "We have already been in very difficult situations when there was almost no focus on Ukraine," he added. "I am absolutely sure we will overcome this challenge."

According to A. Wess Mitchell from Foreign Policy on 16 November 2023, the US is dangerously close to defeat in a global conflict. Two of the three most strategically significant regions in the world are home to grave conflicts that demand American attention. Mitchell warns that if China decides to attack Taiwan, the US would be dragged into a 3-front conflict, something the nation as well as its allies should be ready for.

The author believes that China's desire to move on to Taiwan will increase as Russia prepares for a protracted war in Ukraine and a new front opens in "Israel," emphasizing that if war breaks out, the US would find that crucial elements like geography are completely against it. This would prove detrimental to the US which has vowed to protect Taiwan at all costs.

The current Congressional Strategic Posture Commission and the previous two U.S. national defense strategies both made it apparent that the U.S. military is not built to fight two major adversaries at once. Should China launch an assault on Taiwan, the US would face significant challenges in continuing to defend "Israel" and Ukraine while repelling China.

A "thinly stretched US military" with allies that are not well-equipped to "Defend themselves" can only mean defeat for the US in this case. In addition to the disadvantage that comes with an army that has shrunk to its smallest size since WW2, the US will not be able to outproduce its rivals.

Mitchell said China's navy already surpasses that of the United States in the number of fleet, and every four years it grows by the same amount as the entire French Navy (roughly 130 vessels, based on the French naval chief of staff). In contrast, over the next ten years, the U.S. Navy intends to add 75 more ships.

Funding is another major disadvantage for the already painfully generous US. The national debt to GDP ratio in the United States nearly doubled during World War II, rising from 61 percent to 113 percent of GDP. In contrast, today's US would be entering a conflict with debt that already exceeds 100% of GDP. This means the debt could increase to 200% of GDP, a catastrophic situation for the US economy.

Joseph Epstein, a legislative fellow for the Endowment of Middle East Truth (EMET), wrote " Washington may be in denial, but Russia, China, and Iran are openly at war with the United States. This is not an all-out war but a decentralized one with seemingly unconnected fronts that span across continents. It is fought in a hybrid style, meaning both with tanks and planes and with disinformation campaigns, political interference, and cyberwarfare. The strategy blurs the lines between war and peace and combatants and civilians. It puts a lot of extra fog in the "fog of war."

The European Union and the United States have framed their defence of Ukraine as a principled stance against an aggressor and a war criminal, Russia. But Israel’s prosecution of the war in Gaza is undermining their moral high ground and weakening criminal prosecutions against Russia, international relations and law experts said. This has political and legal ramifications, complicating the task of holding Russia accountable for its crimes in Ukraine.

Ukraine led an international effort to set up a special court that will try Russia for its war of aggression – a crime under the UN Charter. To create this court, Ukraine needs to win a two-thirds majority in the UN General Assembly. For that court to have any chance of being remotely legitimate and successful, it needs to get support not just from Western allies of Ukraine but also from the nonaligned/Global South countries. And after Gaza, most of these countries are not going to be willing to play ball, The West has lost whatever moral leverage it had in pushing for this new institution … the more the Gaza war goes on and the US supports Israel, the less other states will support this.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated 16 January 2024 that the world is "at multiple inflection points" now, with the global order facing the biggest risk since the end of World War II. "For the first time in generations, the world is not at a single inflection point. It is at multiple inflection points, with risks overlapping and compounding each other. And there is no doubt that we face the greatest risk to the global order in the post-war era. But in my mind, there is also no doubt that we can move forward with optimism and resolve," she said at the World Economic Forum 2024 in Davos.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk declared Europe is now in a 'pre-war era' and warned a Ukrainian defeat to Russia would only embolden Vladimir Putin. 'I know it sounds devastating, especially to people of the younger generation, but we have to mentally get used to the arrival of a new era. The pre-war era,' he said in a speech to foreign journalists. 'I don't want to scare anyone, but war is no longer a concept from the past. It's real and it started over two years ago. 'We are living in the most critical moment since the end of the Second World War... literally any scenario is possible,' he concluded.

Danish Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen spoke to journalists on February 9, 2024, and stated there is a strong stance of NATO being at war with Russia within the next 3 to 5 years and that Denmark and Baltic states will be on the front line of that conflict.

Autocracies around the world have become increasingly mutually reinforcing in their competition with democratic societies, Pulitzer Prize winning U.S. journalist and historian Anne Applebaum said in an interview with Current Time, a Russian-language TV and digital network run by RFE/RL. "Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe, Azerbaijan, and Angola don't have a common ideology," Applebaum said. "But they have places where they can cooperate and common interests. And some of their interests are financial."

"The Chinese invest in autocratic regimes all over the world and help prop them up," she added. "The Russians do the same…. They offer mercenaries to dictators in Africa who are in trouble. They look for areas where they have something in common and where they can help one another."

"They don't need a common ideology to do that," Applebaum said. In her new book, Autocracy, Inc.: The Dictators Who Want To Rule The World, Applebaum writes that such governments are undergirded by "sophisticated networks composed of kleptocratic financial structures, surveillance technologies, and professional propagandists, all of which cooperate across multiple regimes," the book argues.

"The common enemy is…anybody who lives in the democratic world and anybody who uses the language of democracy…of human rights, transparency, accountability, the rule of law, justice," Applebaum said. "That language is threatening to them and, of course, it is most threatening to them when it comes from their own opposition movements and their own internal critics and…dissidents." Freed from ideology, modern authoritarian regimes have much greater scope to influence political and social developments in open societies.

"Authoritarian propaganda can now reach people in the United States in a way that communist propaganda could not," Applebaum said. "The money that autocratic states have gives them a kind of power that, again, the Soviet Union never had, whether it's to invest as investors, whether it's to buy influence among politicians or…the business community, whether its even in the form of dark money to fund political campaigns."

Authoritarian regimes did not cause the "backlash against democracy" in the United States and other democratic countries, "but they helped give it language," she said. "They make existing divisions deeper."