Operation Iron Swords - Day 17 - 23 October 2023

Palestinian armed group Hamas launched thousands of missiles at Israel and deployed its militants to infiltrate Jewish settlements near the country’s border with Gaza on 07 October 2023. The 1,200 Israelis killed on the first day would be the equivalent of 36,000 Americans killed in an attack, as a proportion to Israel’s population of 9.3 million people (compared to 332 million in the USA). Israeli President Isaac Herzog stated: “Not since the Holocaust have so many Jews been killed in one day". PM Netanyahu stated "On October 7th, Hamas murdered 1,400 Israelis. Maybe more. This is in a country of fewer than 10 million people. This would be equivalent to over 50,000 Americans murdered in a single day. That’s twenty 9/11s. That is why October 7th is another day that will live in infamy."

Israel said it had dropped 6,000 bombs on the Gaza Strip since Hamas's attack on October 7, nearly matching the number of bombs the US used in Afghanistan in one year. The HAMAS had reportedlly fired about 7400 rockets at Israel. The group said it launched 5,000 rockets in the initial barrage. Israel’s military said 2,500 rockets were fired.

At least 5,087 Palestinians have been killed since Israel launched retaliatory air strikes in Gaza on October 7, the Hamas-run Health Ministry in Gaza said. Of those, 2,055 were children, and 1,119 were women. Another 15,273 people were wounded in the strikes, the ministry said. About 1,500 people across Gaza were believed to be buried under the rubble, most of whom are martyrs, according to spokesman for the Palestinian Ministry of Interior in the Gaza Strip, including 720 children according to health authorities. IDF said it was holding 1,500 bodies of HAMAS terrorists. The Occupied West Bank saw 95 killed and 1,650 wounded, while Israel numbered 1,405 killed and 5,431 wounded. At least 307 Israeli soldiers had been killed since war started.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have updated to 222 the number of people held hostage by the militant group Hamas since its deadly October 7 attacks. Israeli authorities announced that they had arrested about 800 Palestinians after the start of Al-Aqsa Flood, including 500 members of the Hamas movement. The number of prisoners in the occupation prisons reached more than 6 thousand detainees after the escalating arrest campaigns since the Battle of Al-Aqsa Flood on October 7, including about 50 female prisoners, and more than 1,600 administrative detainees.

Israeli stockpiles of Iron Dome munitions are dwindling as Hamas and Hezbollah fire hundreds of rockets daily, reviving US interest in augmenting production, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unidentified US Army and industry officials. The newspaper said that a US production line would help Israel restock its arsenal for future conflicts, but it would take months to get started.

The Iron Dome is the last layer of defense in Israel’s three-tiered system for shooting down projectiles, drones, and enemy aircraft. The Israeli-developed system and its Tamir interceptor missiles are built largely with Pentagon funding under a partnership between Haifa, Israel-based Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and US defense contractor RTX Corp.

RTX’s Raytheon Technologies unit already makes around 70% of components for the Tamir in Arizona, and the companies announced plans in 2020 to build a new US factory for assembling the interceptor missiles. However, the project didn’t go forward after the US Army chose a US-developed missile defense system in 2021, opting against using the Iron Dome. The competing system was reportedly deemed a better fit for potential conflicts in Asia-Pacific, where it would need to intercept faster missiles over longer distances.

The WSJ said that the latest war in Israel may trigger enough demand for the munitions to justify US production of the interceptors. Israel already operates ten Iron Dome batteries, and the Pentagon reportedly agreed earlier this month to give the country two Iron Domes that the US Army purchased three years ago, along with more than 200 Tamir missiles.

Iron Dome batteries – consisting of multiple mobile launchers, a radar, and a control system that identifies threats – are designed to defend an area of nearly 60 square miles. While the US Army opted against the Iron Dome, the US Marine Corps plans to acquire 44 launchers and 1,840 Tamir interceptors. Media reports suggest that each missile costs around $50,000.

Haaretz newspaper said that the Israeli army informed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the war’s goals required a ground operation in the Gaza Strip , while Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant vowed that the ground attack would be “deadly.” The Israeli army believed that it was necessary to make a land incursion into the Gaza Strip to achieve the war goals set by the political level, even at the cost of deaths among the ranks of the army, which was awaiting Netanyahu’s approval.

The newspaper pointed out that the Israeli political level had previously directed the army to destroy the military and authoritarian capabilities of the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) and create a new security reality in the Gaza Strip. The newspaper added that some members of the General Staff believed that ground entry will put pressure on Hamas to reach an agreement to return the kidnapped people, while sources in the military establishment stated that they sensed hesitation at the political level of Netanyahu’s government regarding the continuation of the war, which security officials viewed as Lack of confidence in the Israeli army and its ability to achieve the goals set by the government.

For his part, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant vowed to launch a “deadly attack from land, sea and air,” after inspecting an area near the coast of Gaza, telling the forces to remain prepared for the attack “because it will happen,” according to a statement issued by his office. This came in light of reports of a possible ground operation soon and disagreement over calls for its postponement, as former Israeli National Security Advisor Yaakov Amidror said to the official “Kan” channel, “There is no harm in delaying the ground entry. Every day that passes is to our advantage, and at the expense of Hamas, and as time passes, we need less air power in Gaza, and it is possible to transfer it to the north (south Lebanon).”

Other reports also quoted officials close to Netanyahu repeating the message that it is better to wait to enter Gaza, due to fears of a war breaking out with the Lebanese Hezbollah , and perhaps the entire region. However, this was accompanied by what was reported by the Israeli Broadcasting Authority that soldiers from special units in the Israeli army have been conducting training for days, on how to storm tunnels in preparation for the ground operation in Gaza and the confrontations with Hamas fighters in what is known as the “Metro”, which is an underground tunnel network in which the fiercest confrontation is expected to take place.

Military and strategic expert Elias Hanna said that after Operation Al-Aqsa Flood , Israel decided to carry out a ground operation in the Gaza Strip , during which it would control a limited part of the Strip, but achieving this depends on several factors. He added - in exclusive statements to Al Jazeera Net - that calling the operation that Israel intends to launch on the Gaza Strip the word “invasion” is very large, and the best thing is to implement a limited ground operation, because the “invasion” has a military goal and has political dimensions and requires means, a political decision, and international cover. It took a long time and a very big sacrifice.

The ground operation - according to the Israeli mind and logic in both the political and military senses - must be proportional to the magnitude of the results of the “Al-Aqsa Flood.” Regarding whether Israel is ready for such an operation, the military expert said, “In my opinion, if this is done, it will be a ground operation with limited objectives and limited geography.” This operation must be proportionate - according to the Israeli mind and the logical mind in both the political and military senses - with the magnitude of the results of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” in a way that makes Israel say, “I have achieved what I must achieve, and not as happened in 2014 or 2009. There must be a balance between action and reaction, otherwise the Israeli operation does not take on its military meaning.”

Hanna pointed out that talk about the ground operation appeared after Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke about it two days after the start of the escalation, and also recently the Israeli army spoke about its details that it would take place in 3 stages: The first is the destruction of the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ). And the human and military infrastructure it owns. In the second stage , the occupied areas and spaces are cleaned by eliminating what are called remaining pockets and sleeper cells. As for the third stage, a security and political system is created in which Israel is not responsible for the security of Gaza, nor even for its economic and social aspects.

As to coordination between Israel and the Palestinian Authority in order to hand over to it the file of administering the Gaza Strip after the ground operation, Hanna said, “I rule out such a thing because the Authority is not accepted in the West Bank, let alone in Gaza? This is first, and secondly, there is no authority that coordinates in advance with Israel to assassinate the Palestinian people yet.” If it has lost absolute legitimacy, and thirdly, the Authority is unable to manage the Palestinian issue in the West Bank, so how can it manage it in an area that will be afflicted?” He added that the Palestinian Authority “may be an auxiliary factor or a designated player within a multilateral system supervised by the United Nations or the League of Arab States.”

the fate of the resistance brigades depends on the outcome of the ground military operation. Will it really eliminate all pillars of the state? Because Hamas has in the military leadership Muhammad al-Deif , and in the political leadership Yahya al-Sinwar , and others; Hamas is an organization and structure that resembles a state. It has a military system and a military industry, it has military deployment, it has command and control, and it has a general budget as well.

The degree of Israeli success determines the role of Hamas in the future - as Hanna says - because there is always a principle, which is that Israel loses if it does not win, and Hamas also wins if it does not lose. That is, it is enough for Hamas to continue in the absolute for it to succeed and rebuild itself in the long term, because Hamas fighters take off their military uniforms and engage among civilians, and with time they reorganize themselves.

Hanna said, "Israel does not necessarily control the entire Strip, as it considers it divided into two parts: northern and southern. Therefore, it asked the Palestinians to go to the south. The south does not pose a threat to Israel because it considers the Gaza Valley region and its environs important to it, as it believes that the region Beneath Al-Shifa Hospital contains tunnels and houses Hamas's core leadership elements.

The military expert mentioned that there are several obstacles facing Israel, the most important of which is the human element, given the huge population density that Gaza contains. There is also the issue of the time that Israel needs to achieve its goals in this operation, as well as the size of the losses it is incurring, and to what extent the international cover for Israel will continue to carry out this operation.

Abu Ubaida, spokesman for the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades - the military wing of the Hamas movement, had previously confirmed that “the occupation’s threat to engage in a ground aggression against our people does not intimidate us, and will be a new opportunity to hold it harshly accountable for the crimes it commits against us,” as reported by the media.

The Al-Qassam Brigades released a video clip directed at Israeli soldiers entitled “This is what awaits you when you enter Gaza.” The video shows Al-Qassam fighters emerging from the tunnels from underground, armed with their weapons, before attacking Israeli army tanks, destroying some of them, atop others, capturing the Israeli soldiers in them, and returning them to the tunnels from which they emerged.

An official source in the Al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ), said that the anti-tank missiles dropped by resistance drones are one of the most important reasons for the delay in the Israeli ground attack. The source indicated that their information indicated that Israeli field commanders refused to enter the Gaza Strip without finding a practical solution to the anti-armor shells that were dropped by resistance marches, and they asked the Israeli army leadership to find urgent solutions to this matter, according to his description.

According to the Al-Qassam source, the Israeli army leadership assigned the combat means development department in the ground arm to provide urgent solutions for every tank and troop carrier that will enter the Gaza Strip, for fear of exposing the army leadership to future accountability in this regard. The ground arm of the Israeli army had been observed using an iron mesh tent over the tanks and troop carriers gathered around the Gaza Strip.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian called on the international community to take a common position that would send a clear message to Israel of the need to stop attacks against the Palestinians. Abdullahian stressed the importance of delivering humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza and preventing the forced displacement of the residents of the Strip. He said that what is happening in Gaza is a war crime, expressing his deep regret for what is happening in the Palestinian territories. He added that if Israel made the mistake of launching a ground attack on Gaza, it would be stuck in a quagmire that it could not get rid of. He also said that Iran considers resistance a legitimate right for the Palestinians and does not intend to expand the circle of conflict in the region, and stressed that his country will continue its political, media and legal support for the Palestinian people.

Military expert Major General Fayez Al-Duwairi considered that sending the United States new military reinforcements to the region aimed to deliver a “firm message of deterrence,” pointing out that with these reinforcements, the region will witness the largest concentration and spread of American weapons since Operation Desert Storm that took place in early 1991. Al-Duwairi explained - during a military analysis of the current developments - that his description of this message as firm comes from the fact that sending these reinforcements means they can be used, and this matter reflects the US administration’s expectation of the worst scenarios that the conflict could take during the coming period.

The Pentagon had previously announced the strengthening of its military deployment in the region in the face of “the recent escalation by Iran and its proxy forces,” as US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin ordered the deployment of the THAAD anti-missile system and additional “Patriot” air defense batteries throughout the region, and informed the forces of Additional information may be published soon. The United States sent a large naval force to the Middle East in the past few weeks, which included two aircraft carriers, their accompanying ships, and about 2,000 Marines.

Al-Duwairi pointed out in his analysis that since the start of the war 17 days ago, an escalation has occurred every day, but it is gradual and controlled, which can be read as an implicit agreement on rules of engagement based on the fact that every action has a reaction equal in distance, if not equal in strength, as this happens. A balance in the quality of bombing and depth of distance.

In this context, he pointed out that the bombing on the northern front of the occupied territories initially targeted a depth of two kilometres, then increased to 5, then 8, and finally reached 20 kilometres, as the Lebanese Hezbollah responded by sending a plane that reached this depth after similar targeting by the Israeli forces.

Multiple US media reports said the Biden administration had called on Israel to delay a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip to buy time for hostage negotiations and to allow more humanitarian aid to reach the Palestinians. The New York Times quoted senior US officials as saying that the release of two US hostages by the Hamas Islamic group spurred the administration to more urgently suggest that the Israelis allow time to negotiate the release of 212 other hostages.

Israel meanwhile denied the reports. The New York Times quoted an Israeli Embassy official in Washington as saying, "We have a close dialogue and consultations with the US administration. The US is not pressing Israel in regards to the ground operation."

Biden confirmed that there can be no talk about discussions about a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas before the release of all those detained by Hamas. "The hostages should be released, and then we can talk," Biden said in response to a question about whether he supported a similar ceasefire.

US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller warned Monday that a ceasefire would give Hamas the ability to rest, recover, and prepare to continue launching attacks against Israel. Miller confirmed in a press conference that the United States is working separately to ensure the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza, while US envoy David Satterfield is working to ensure the provision of aid.

European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said he expected the bloc's leaders to support a call for a truce in order for aid to enter. He added after talks with the foreign ministers of the continental bloc in Luxembourg, "I believe that the leaders will support the idea of a humanitarian truce to facilitate the arrival of humanitarian aid that would allow the displaced to find shelter."

France called for a humanitarian truce, which might lead to a ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinian factions, stressing that it is "a friend of Israel and the Palestinians." French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne told parliamentarians in Paris that distributing aid requires a humanitarian truce that could lead to a ceasefire, and called for the Rafah crossing to be opened to allow new aid to pass through.

French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to arrive in Tel Aviv on 24 October 2023, where he is scheduled to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The leftist opposition parties were demanding the lifting of the siege on Gaza, in addition to a ceasefire, as the Palestinian issue is a particularly sensitive topic in France, as some leftist parties have historically defended the issue of the Palestinians in general and the residents of Gaza in particular.

Israel cannot defeat Hamas "through military force alone," said Benzi Sanders, Jerusalem program director at EXTEND, a human rights NGO working in the region. Sanders stressed that he is not a pacifist. He argued, nevertheless, that even though Israel needs to "fight and defend itself against Hamas and against terrorism," that was not enough. "I think that in order to defeat Hamas, we need to create hope for a future where Palestinians and Israelis live together side by side," he said.

Sanders argued that the current Israeli government, as well as previous governments, "have been completely committed to the idea that there will be no coexistence between Israel and Palestinians in a Palestinian state or Palestinians with equal rights." "They want to prevent the Palestinian state, and we've turned our backs on Palestinians who are willing to make compromises, who are willing to work toward the future," he said.

A third convoy of humanitarian aid entered Gaza via the Rafah crossing from Egypt. More than a dozen trucks were in the convoy. Just 20 trucks carrying supplies like food and medicine were allowed in on the first day, and another 14 trucks entered Gaza the next day, but the number of trucks still remains insufficient to address the unprecedented humanitarian crisis in the enclave, according to aid workers. The UN has said that at least 100 trucks are needed daily to meet the needs of Gaza's 2.4 million inhabitants, more than half of whom have been forced to flee their homes. Before the crossing opened, more than 200 trucks carrying 3,000 tons of aid had been waiting nearby for days.

The EU's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said the few dozen trucks that had entered the besieged strip were "not enough" and that EU ministers would discuss a humanitarian cease-fire. "Personally, I think that a humanitarian phase is needed in order to allow the humanitarian support to come in and be distributed, seeing that half of the population of Gaza has been moving from their houses," Borrell told reporters in Luxembourg, where the meeting is taking place.

Israel's deepening attacks in Gaza for what it has called the "next stage of the war" are likely to embroil more regional military forces, such as Lebanon's Hezbollah, in the conflict which has lasted for more than two weeks, as well as increase the spillover risk and escalate anti-Israeli sentiment around the world, Chinese experts predict, as the Cairo Peace Summit aimed at de-escalation ended without a breakthrough.

An escalation of Israeli military operations in Gaza could see the US bogged down in another crisis in the Middle East, Chinese experts said, as the US is sending additional air defense systems to the region and helping Israel to down missiles and drones. As Washington is drawn deeper into the conflict, its attention on the Asia-Pacific strategy may be diluted, experts said.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said that the security situation for Israel may worsen very quickly. “If the war crimes against the Palestinians are not immediately stopped, other multiple fronts will open and this is inevitable,” he said. The Iranian diplomat later doubled down, warning the US and Israel that, if they do not stop mistreating the Palestinians, “anything is possible at any moment and the region will go out of control.” Amir-Abdollahian added that further escalation would have “far-reaching repercussions.”

Israeli Economy Minister Nir Barkat warned that the military is ready to “eliminate” the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah and strike Iran if they open up a “northern front” in the current conflict. “The plan of Iran is to attack Israel on all fronts. If we find they intend to target Israel, we will not just retaliate to those fronts, but we will go to the head of the snake, which is Iran,” Barkat told The Mail on Sunday. He added “the ayatollahs in Iran are not going to sleep good at night” if they move against Israel.

Barkat warned that Lebanon and Hezbollah, which is backed by Tehran, “are going to pay a heavy price, similar to what Hamas is going to pay.” Israel would go “after the heads of Iran” if necessary, the minister said. “Israel has a very clear message to our enemies. We are saying to them, look what's happening in Gaza – you are going to get the same treatment if you attack us. We are going to wipe you off the face of the Earth.”