fighting the war as if there are no negotiations, and
negotiating as if there is no war
Avi Melamed

It is dangerous to be found in the company of God's enemies

Operation Iron Swords - June 2024

June 2024 Su M Tu W Th F Sa             1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

US President Joe Biden on Friday 31 May 2024 called on Hamas militants to agree to a new offer from Israel on releasing hostages in exchange for a Gaza ceasefire. Within days, the war had reached a point of statis [though not stalemate], as both sides continued to believe that victory waws within grasp, compromise distasteful, and defeat unacceptable. Both sides continued military operations, hoping to gain on the battlefield rather than concede at the negotiating table. In Israel, Bibi's government teetered on the tip of a pin, between the Scylla of Bin Gvir and the Charybdis of Gallant. Sinwar contemplated concerns known only to a few. Dozens were killed and many dozens wounded every day, for all the good their anguish achieved.

GlobalSecurity.org will resume daily coverage once events become less tedious and more kinetic, that is, less political and more military. There are no few other sources covering the politics.

After 9 months of devastating war on the Gaza Strip, elite Israeli forces from the Yamam Unit and the General Security Service (Shin Bet) recovered 4 prisoners held by the resistance who were being held in the Nuseirat area in the middle of the Strip. The IDF fought fierce clashes with the resistance and under intense fire bombardment from the air, sea and air to recover their prisoners, who did not include any soldiers. They were captured at a music concert in one of the settlements around the Gaza Strip. The operation gave Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and their allies more time to continue the operation in Gaza.

The operation to rescue the hostages from Nusayrat was named "Summer Seeds" and is defined by the IDF as one of the most complex ever for hostage rescue. The Israeli police announced on Saturday that a commander in a special military force that participated in the operation to free the four hostages died of his wounds. The newspaper " Haaretz " reported that the commander's name is Arnon Zamora, and he works as a chief inspector in the special "Al-Yamam" unit of the police.

IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari said "We know about under 100 (Palestinian) casualties. I don't know how many [of] them are terrorists." The HAMAS Government Media Office [not the Gaza Ministry of Health] reported the IDF committed a massacre in the Nuseirat camp, which resulted in the martyrdom of 150 Palestinians, most of them children and women, in addition to the injury of dozens. European Union High Representative Josep Borrell called the hostage rescue operation "appalling". Borrell referred to the operation as "another massacre of civilians," noting that the EU "condemns this in the strongest terms."

Among the 274 dead from Israel’s incursion were at least 64 children, 57 women, and 37 elderly people, Gaza’s health ministry said. Doing the arithmetic, that left 116 martyrs who were military age men, not all of whom would have been HAMAS. Given the rough proportions within the general population of a married couple with two children and one grandparent, these numbers suggest about 50 un-accompanined HAMAS combatants among the death toll.

Israel had threatened to start a military operation on the border with Lebanon because Hezbollah has been demonstrating growing sophistication and surprising capacities, driving Israel increasingly at unease and confusion about expectations on the northern front. Israel can attack many Hezbollah targets at once and cause significant damage, but can’t remove or dramatically reduce the militia’s capabilities operations to destroy infrastructure and weapons, push fighters out of the south, and cut off supply routes from Syria.

The UN Security Council passed a Gaza ceasefire resolution 10 June 2024. The US-sponsored vote passes with 14 in favour, 0 against and one abstention. Russia was the one country to abstain. It was the first time the UN Security Council passed a resolution demanding a ceasefire after eight months of war on Gaza by Israel’s military

The leaders of Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) met in Qatar to discuss the proposed ceasefire deal for Gaza, according to a statement released after talks concluded 10 June 2024. According to the statement released by PIJ, the leaders said any deal must lead to a permanent ceasefire, a full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, an end to the Israeli siege of Gaza, reconstruction, and “a serious exchange deal” between captives in Gaza and Palestinians held in Israeli jails.

Despite continuing Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip, which had continued uninterrupted for months, Palestinians displaced by war and those who have lost their homes and loved ones are striving to celebrate the four-day Eid al-Adha [the “festival of sacrifice”] holiday. The celebration of Eid-ul-Adha, the second of the two main holidays celebrated in Islam, is to commemorate Prophet Ibrahim's devotion to Allah and his readiness to sacrifice his son, Ismail. Eid al-Adha is a joyous and celebratory holiday that includes wearing new clothes, exchanging gifts, taking time off from school or work, but amid the Israel-Hamas war, there is hunger.

The Israeli military confirmed 15 June 2024 the deaths of eight of its soldiers in a blast in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, after Hamas’s armed wing announced that it carried out an ambush on Israeli forces in the city’s Saudi neighbourhood. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz expressed his condolences to the families of the eight soldiers who were killed in Rafah, saying they “knew they might have to sacrifice their lives, but they did it so we could live in this country.”

In the Rafah area, eight fighters from the IDF Engineering Corps were killed as a result of the bombing of an armored personnel carrier 15 June 2024. At approximately five o’clock in the morning local time, an anti-missile was launched at an armored vehicle containing 8 soldiers and officers, and it exploded immediately and the area was completely engulfed in flames. The explosion caused rebound explosions due to the munitions that were inside. All the soldiers were inside, and the eight were killed instantly and burned inside the vehicle. Hamas announced that it is an RPG, but the IDF is skeptical about this claim.

IDF Spokesman Brig. Gen. Daniel Hagari warned on 16 June 2024 that because of Lebanon’s refusal to comply with Resolution 1701, the IDF will take “the necessary measures to protect its civilians until security along our northern border with Lebanon is restored.” The Oct. 7 massacre “cannot—will not—happen again on any one of Israel’s borders. Israel has a duty to defend the people of Israel. We will fulfill that duty at all costs,” concluded the military spokesman.

After launching hundreds of rockets and drones toward Israel in some of the most intense barrages in the conflict, Hezbollah sharply reduced the number of projectiles fired toward northern Israel on 16 June 2024. The lull continued even after Israeli military officials said they killed a key operative in Hezbollah’s rocket and missile department, Mohammed Ayoub, in a drone attack. The lull could be due to the Muslim feast of Eid al-Adha, as well as a visit from Amos Hochstein, a senior adviser to U.S. President Joe Biden.

Netanyahu dissolved the influential War Cabinet that has overseen the fighting in Gaza, a government spokesperson said 17 June 2024, days after a key member of the body bolted from the government over frustration with the Israeli leader's handling of the war. Netanyahu would hold smaller forums for sensitive war issues, including with his Security Cabinet, which includes far-right governing partners who oppose cease-fire deals and have voiced support for reoccupying Gaza.

The Israeli army announced 17 June 2024 that it had dismantled about “half of Hamas’ combat force in Rafah,” and that at least 550 militants were killed in that city. Of the four battalions in the Rafah Brigade affiliated with Hamas, two battalions, Khaled bin al-Walid “Yabna Camp” (south), and the East Rafah Battalion, are considered “almost completely dismantled,” while the capabilities of the other two battalions, Al-Shaboura (north) and Tal al-Sultan (west), are limited and somewhat deteriorated due to Israeli army operations. Hamas had changed its tactics in Rafah, and those participating in the operations (a very limited number), while the majority of the movement's combatants are present underground and in other areas. Hamas will preserve two battalions for use after the war. Battalions in Deir al-Balah and Khan Yunis were told not to participate in fighting.

An Israeli source in the negotiations team told Ynet that the IDF has a plan on how to proceed militarily now that the hostage talks have failed. They said, "If Hamas thinks that at the end of the Rafah operation, the fighting will end - they are in for a disappointment.

The Israel Defense Forces’ Northern Command approved operational plans for a war against the Hezbollah terrorist group in Southern Lebanon, the army announced on 18 June 2024. The plans were “authorized and validated” by Northern Command head Maj. Gen. Uri Gordin and Maj. Gen. Oded Basiuk, who leads the military’s Operations Directorate, the IDF said. Since Oct. 8, Hezbollah had fired more than 5,000 rockets, anti-tank missiles and suicide drones at Israeli border communities.

Israel Katz, Israel’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, stated 21 June 2024 "Israel cannot allow the Hezbollah terror organization to continue attacking its territory and citizens, and soon we will make the necessary decisions. The free world must unconditionally stand with Israel in its war against the axis of evil led by Iran and extremist Islam. Our war is also your war, and Nasrallah's threat to Cyprus is just the beginning. Evil must be defeated, as history has proven in the past."

Israel's public broadcasting corporation reported that Israel is preparing to announce the defeat of the military arm of Hamas in Gaza, with operations in the new third phase of the conflict set to be carried out in a 'different way'. Israeli Defense officials estimate: Hezbollah may launch major attack on Israel to preempt large IDF assault; Nasrallah greatly concerned about surprise assault by Israel on strategic Hezbollah assets.

Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah confirmed 19 June 2024 that the resistance will fight without controls, rules or ceilings if a comprehensive war with Israel is imposed on it. Nasrallah for the first time warned the Cypriot government against opening its bases to Israel, stressing that if it did so “it will be treated as part of the war.” He said that "the enemy knows very well what awaits him in the Mediterranean Sea , where all his coasts and ships will be targeted."

Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper quoted a senior Israeli political official as saying, “If Hezbollah continues its attacks on us, southern Lebanon will look like Gaza and there will be no immunity for Beirut.” He added, "The countdown to our strong response has begun and will not stop unless Hezbollah accepts the offer of American envoy Amos Hockstein."

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on 22 June 2024 stated : “The United States is our most important and central ally”. He said the Israel Defense Forces was transitioning to “Phase 3” of its war against Hamas in Gaza, hinting that the heavy fighting would soon wind down and the military would switch to more targeted raids. This will “enable additional things,” said the defense minister, possibly referring to a military campaign against Hezbollah in the north, “and I know that we will achieve close cooperation with the U.S. on this issue as well.”

There has been a steep drop in American weapons shipments to the Israel Defense Forces, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said 23 June2024, days after accusing Washington of withholding military aid. “Around four months ago, there was a dramatic decrease in the supply of armaments arriving from the U.S. to Israel,” the premier explained in Hebrew remarks ahead of the weekly Cabinet meeting in Jerusalem. “For many weeks, we appealed to our American friends to speed up the shipments. We did this time and time again. We did this at the highest levels, and on all levels, and I want to emphasize: We did this behind closed doors,” Netanyahu said.

Netanyahu said in an interview with the Israeli Channel 14: “The violent phase of the battles against (Hamas) is about to end. This does not mean that the war is about to end, but the war in its violent phase is about to end in Rafah.” The Prime Minister added, in his first interview with an Israeli television channel since the start of the war against Hamas on October 7: “After the end of the violent phase, we will redeploy some of our forces towards the north, and we will do so mainly for defensive purposes, but Also to return (displaced) residents to their homes.” Netanyahu also stressed that he would not accept any “partial” agreement, and said: “The goal is to recover the hostages and uproot the Hamas regime in Gaza.

Two days after Hezbollah threatened Cyprus, the UN secretary general felt “compelled” to weigh in: "I feel compelled to voice my profound concerns about escalation between Israel & Hezbollah along the Blue Line. The risk for the conflict in the Middle East to widen is real & must be avoided. The people of the region & the world cannot afford Lebanon to become another Gaza."

Senior Biden administration official told CNN's M.J.Lee that US officials told Israeli counterparts that US will support Israel in a war with Hizbullah (short of deploying U.S. troops on the ground). "Senior US officials reassured a delegation of top Israeli officials visiting Washington this week that if a full-out war were to break out on Israel’s northern border between Israel and Hezbollah, the Biden administration is fully prepared to back its ally,... Israel has made the case that it can pull off a “blitzkrieg,” but the US is warning them that they may not be able to ensure that it remains a limited campaign..."

Despite the diplomatic efforts led by the United States to calm the conflict - as the newspaper says - public opinion is pushing for a military response, with 60% of Israelis calling for attacking Hezbollah with full force, according to a recent poll conducted by the Jewish People Policy Institute.

Security sources said June 24, 2024 that preparations are being made to announce the “defeat” of the military wing of the Hamas movement, and the possibility of expanding the battle against the Lebanese Hezbollah.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on June 24, 2024 warned Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant against allowing the conflict with Hamas in Gaza to expand to include Lebanon and Hezbollah. Blinken "underscored the importance of avoiding further escalation of the conflict and reaching a diplomatic resolution that allows both Israeli and Lebanese families to return to their homes," according to a statement from State Department spokesman Matthew Miller.

European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell told reporters in Luxembourg that the risk of the war spilling over was growing bigger every day. "I think that, unhappily, we are on the eve of the war expanding," Borrell said.

National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said 25 June 2024 Israel’s plan for the “day after” Hamas will be implemented in north Gaza in coming days. The IDF plan has “been sharpened” in recent weeks, "we will see a practical expression of this plan” shortly.

The UN Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Famine Review Committee (FRC) reported "In contrast with the assumptions made for the projection period (March – July 2024), the amount of food and non-food commodities allowed into the northern governorates increased. Additionally, the response in the nutrition, water sanitation and hygiene (WASH) and health sectors was scaled up. In this context, the available evidence does not indicate that Famine is currently occurring."

On 26 June 2024 , a group of prominent Israelis from a wide range of fields took to the pages of the New York Times, beseeching American lawmakers to deny Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the honor of addressing a joint session of Congress on July 24 as scheduled. They predicted the appearance "will be carefully stage-managed to prop up his shaky hold on power and allow him to boast to his constituents about America's so-called support for his failed policies" as well as "embolden" his supporters at home and "all but dismiss the rage and pain of his people" expressed in demonstrations across Israel and in opinion polls.

US envoy Amos Hochstein proposed to relocate Hezbollah forces approximately 7 kilometers north of the border, roughly to the Litani River, and deploy several thousand Lebanese Armed Forces soldiers in their place. Israel would end its manned and unmanned overflights of Lebanon, and Israel and Lebanon would commence discussions on disputed border points along the so-called Blue Line. Hezbollah is committed to continuing its performative resistance campaign against Israel until a formal Israel-Hamas ceasefire is reached, a distant prospect at best. Israel is under pressure to return its citizens to the north in time for the start of the 2024 school year in late September.

Israel is creating de facto “buffer zone” inside Lebanon by destroying areas within 5 km of border in ongoing strikes. Much of this strip, used as launching pad & terror base for Hezbollah attacks, is reportedly ruined. IDF keeps pounding south Lebanon & preparing for a large war, which will be painful for Israel but a total disaster for Hezbollah.

Two U.S. officials briefed on an updated list of weapons shipments said the Biden administration has sent large amounts of munitions to Israel since October 7, including over 10,000 highly destructive 2,000-pound bombs and thousands of Hellfire missiles.

Jerusalem Post reported 28 June 2024 the United Right Party, whose members are Avigdor Liberman, Naftali Bennett, Yossi Cohen, Ayelet Shaked and Gideon Sa'ar, is expected to receive 27 seats in the Knesset elections and be the largest party. Bennett even leads over all the candidates in the suitability for the Premiership. According to the Maariv survey conducted by Lazar Research, the main damage is to the National Unity party, which is expected to lose seven mandates and drop to 17. Likud (19) and Yesh Atid (13) lose two mandates each, while Otzma Yehudit (8) and the Labor Party (5) each lose a mandate. The suitability results for prime minister are almost unchanged—Benny Gantz received 44% support compared to 38% support for Benjamin Netanyahu, while another 18% do not know.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said 28 June 2024 that "We are preparing our defensive and offensive capabilities" against Hezbollah, while "working on a diplomatic alternative," which he said is "always preferable." The defense chief added that "We aren't looking for a war, but we're ready for one."

Iran's mission to the United Nations posted on X on 29 June 2024 that if Israel should "embark on full-scale military aggression, an obliterating war will ensue. All options, including the full involvement of all Resistance Fronts, are on the table."

Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs, Israel Katz made a direct response to several threats made by Iran against Israel, “If Hezbollah does not ceasefire and withdraw from Southern Lebanon, we will act against it with Full-Force until security is restored and residents can return to their homes.” As well as, “A regime that threatens destruction deserves to be destroyed.”

In Gaza, the army wants a third phase during which it controls the Philadelphi Corridor , the Rafah Crossing, and the Netzarim Corridor , and then carries out "surgical operations" with a battalion or brigade at most. The resistance battalions would meet these surgical operations with violent and fierce resistance. Netanyahu’s plan for the Gaza Strip consists of disarming all resistance factions, changing the government system with an authority loyal to him, and changing the psychology of Gazan society by rejecting “extremism” in addition to reconstruction, which is a dreamy plan that he will not be able to achieve.

Visions for the post-war Strip suggest the possibility of dividing it into “security zones” that resemble “islands,” according to a report published by the Wall Street Journal , which stated that the plan is popular among Israeli government and military circles. At its beginning, the plan relies on creating what resembles “islands” or “bubbles” inside Gaza, which are geographically defined areas “in which Palestinians not associated with Hamas can live temporarily, while the Israeli army cleanses the remaining militants.” Members of the Likud Party, led by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, support a plan that focuses on “security” and dividing Gaza with two corridors extending from east to west, allowing the army to launch raids and attacks “when it deems it necessary.”

The need to find an answer to the question: What will happen after the war? It has become more urgent, according to the report, as Israel may change its strategy by reducing the number of forces in Gaza, and dealing with something similar to “counter-insurgency,” which means leaving Gaza “mired in chaos, violence, and instability,” which may mean that the fighting trends in northern Israel On the border with Hezbollah, it may escalate.

American officials revealed to the New York Times that Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant “changed his position” regarding opening a new front for the war in the north with the Lebanese Hezbollah. The officials indicated to the American newspaper that Gallant "believed, like some other officials in the Israeli government, that we must respond by destroying Hezbollah and Hamas after the October 7 attacks." The officials explained that the Israeli Defense Minister "has changed his position at the present time," and believes that "opening a new front would not be a wise decision." American officials expressed their belief that Israel and Hezbollah “prefer to reach a diplomatic solution” to the crisis, according to the newspaper, which noted that Gallant “told Washington during his recent visit that his country does not want a large-scale war” with the group close to Iran, but he stressed that it “is” "I am ready to strike if I am severely provoked."

On June 30, 2024 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu renewed his vow Sunday that there is "no substitute for victory," telling his Cabinet that Israel would continue its war against Hamas in Gaza until the militants are defeated and 120 Hamas-held hostages, both dead and alive, are returned. He said the war, nearly 10 months long, would continue "until we achieve all our goals," including that Hamas "no longer poses a threat on Israel." Netanyahu contended, "Everyone knows the simple truth: Hamas is the only obstacle to freeing our hostages," in exchange for hundreds of Palestinians jailed by Israel.

The Biden administration held up transfers of seven weapon systems to the Jewish state, Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told Shannon Bream on the program Fox News Sunday. The House Foreign Affairs Committee chair said that he signed off on the weapons, and Congress appropriated them. “I can’t get into the details,” the congressman said. “That is not helping Israel.”