Iron Swords - Butcher's Bill / Oasis of Martyrs

On 7 October 2023, Hamas and other armed groups present in the Gaza Strip carried out an attack in Israel, killing more than 1,200 persons, injuring thousands and abducting some 240 people, many of whom continue to be held hostage. It was the second largest loss inflicted on the Israeli forces after the 1973 war. Palestinian armed groups launched thousands of missiles at Israel Following this attack, Israel launched a large-scale military operation in Gaza, by land, air and sea.

The 1,200 Israelis killed on the first day would be the equivalent of 36,000 Americans killed in an attack, as a proportion to Israel’s population of 9.3 million people (compared to 332 million in the USA). Israeli President Isaac Herzog stated: “Not since the Holocaust have so many Jews been killed in one day". PM Netanyahu stated "On October 7th, Hamas murdered 1,400 Israelis. Maybe more. This is in a country of fewer than 10 million people. This would be equivalent to over 50,000 Americans murdered in a single day. That’s twenty 9/11s. That is why October 7th is another day that will live in infamy."

Prior to the war, many reports estimated Hamas forces at 40,000 strong. Eventually, the IDF went on record with The Jerusalem Post and others at 30,000. But there were still some IDF officials who went off-script and held to the estimate of 40,000.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant considered 05 February 2024 that half the number of Hamas militants were killed or seriously injured by Israeli army forces.

A Hamas official based in Qatar told Reuters 19 February 2024 that the group estimated that 6,000 of its fighters have been killed by Israeli forces. That number is about half of the 12,000 terrorists that Israel said it has killed since the Oct. 7 Hamas-led massacre,

As of 15 February 2024, The Director-General of the HAMAS Government Information Office in the Gaza Strip , Ismail Al-Thawabta, stated "the toll of the aggression had risen to about 35,500 martyrs and missing persons, including 28,663 martyrs and 68,395 injuries. There are about 2,493 massacres committed by the occupation army. Among the martyrs were about 12,400 children, 8,450 women, 340 medical personnel, 46 civil defense personnel, and 126 journalists. There are approximately 11,000 wounded people who need to travel for treatment.... we received live testimonies stating that the occupation army committed field executions against more than 137 Palestinian civilian detainees in the Gaza and North governorates."

The HAMAS Ministry of Health in the besieged sector announced that the number of victims of the Israeli operation between 7 October 2023 and 12:30 on 1 March 2024, at least 30,228 Palestinians martyred in Gaza, "including 12,300 dead children, 8,400 women, 340 medical personnel, 46 civil defense, and 124 journalists." He pointed out that "7,000 people are missing, 70% of whom are children and women, The ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants.

The number wounded was 71,377. The Palestinian Government Media Office in Gaza had said much earlier that the number of missing people had risen to more than 8,000, including including 4,700 children and women, amid expectations that the toll will be double this figure.

The IDF intensified its military operations in the West Bank, and increased the pace of incursions and raids into cities, towns, and camps, resulting in the martyrdom of 405 [399?] Palestinians, including 102 children, the injury of about 4,592, including 708 children, and the arrest of 7,120, according to official HAMAS sources.

By another acccount, since 7 October 2023, 409 Palestinians had been killed, including 103 children, and 4,611 Palestinians have been injured, including 709 children, in conflict-related incidents across the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Israel. Since the beginning of the year, 96 Palestinians have been killed, including 26 in refugee camps. During the same period, 15 Israelis, including four members of Israeli forces, were killed and 86 injured in conflict-related incidents in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Israel.

As of 17 January 2023, the Israeli escalation in the West Bank led to the death of 360 Palestinians, the injury of nearly 2,200, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, and the arrest of about 6,000, according to the Palestinian Prisoners’ Club.

In the first two years of the Daesh insurgency in Iraq, the UN stated that some 18,800 civilians were killed by the terrorist organization, while the Israeli military has killed well over 30,000 Palestinians in around 5 months. In fact, the true death toll in the Gaza Strip, accounting for those reported missing and buried under the rubble, is most likely closer to 40,000.

More than 202 Hezbollah fighters were killed in Lebanon during exchanges of bombing operations with Israel.

In first two days, the IDF killed 1,609 terrorists. Israel initially revised down the death toll from the October Hamas attacks in southern Israel from 1,400 to 1,200. IDF had said previously it was holding 1,500 bodies of terrorists, a total that would increas to about 1,700.

The total announced number of Israeli officers and soldiers killed had risen to 575 since the start of the war on October 7, including 240 [243?] killed since the ground invasion as a result of the ongoing clashes with the Palestinian resistance. Among them were at least 56 with the rank of platoon commander, 43 with the rank of company commander, 9 with the rank of battalion commander, and 5 with the rank of brigade commander. These officers constitute 23% of the total deaths of the Israeli army in the war on Gaza.

Israeli media reported that 27% of the Israeli military casualties in the war were officers. In detail, the media highlighted that three brigade commanders, four battalion commanders, and other senior officers have been killed in the war so far.

The Israeli Broadcasting Corporation reported that 29 of the army's deaths were caused by "friendly fire" and operational incidents since the start of the ground war in Gaza, late last October. The Israeli authority explained that "18 army soldiers were killed by friendly fire, two were killed as a result of gunfire (without explanation), and 9 Israeli soldiers were killed in ammunition, weapons, or run-over accidents." The Jerusalem Post newspaper revealed that 15 soldiers were killed in the Strip without their bodies being found.

According to some reports statistics indicate that 20% of the Israeli losses were due to friendly fire. Because the nature of the battle has become completely different from what was expected, and it lacks a front line.

Haaretz newspaper quoted the Israeli Ministry of Defense as saying that the Medical Rehabilitation Department has treated more than 5,500 wounded since the beginning of the war on the Gaza Strip on October 7. Israeli Army Radio reported that the Rehabilitation Department of the Ministry of Defense is preparing to receive 20,000 wounded this year, compared to 5,500 wounded received last year since the start of the war.

It was announced that soldiers wounded in the Gaza Strip battles numbered to 2,962 since the beginning of the war, including 1,429 who had been wounded since the start of the ground attack on October 27, 2023.

The Israeli army reported that 407 who are still receiving treatment for their injuries in the Gaza battles, and the condition of 48 of them is serious. The number of injured among the Israeli army since the start of the ground operation in the Gaza Strip on October 27 included 602 minor cases, 430 moderate cases, and 264 critical cases.

The Israeli army published new data about those wounded in the military operation in the Gaza Strip. The Israeli army announces that 540 soldiers were injured in the Gaza Strip. According to army data, 540 soldiers, including 27 seriously injured, were injured in operational incidents since the start of the bombing of the Gaza Strip. There were also 21 accidental shooting incidents in the Gaza Strip, 54 bilateral shooting incidents and 31 traffic accidents. In addition, 388 incidents occurred, including ramming anti-tank rifles, anti-aircraft guns, weapons and machine guns.

At least 14,391 Israelis were injured, according to i24 TV.

Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper had reported that 5,000 soldiers had been wounded since the beginning of the war on October 7, and that the Ministry of Defense had recognized 2,000 soldiers as disabled so far.

An estimate by the Israeli Ministry of Defense expected that the number of soldiers with disabilities in the war taking place in the Gaza Strip since October 7 of last year would reach 12,500 soldiers. The Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth said that the Soldiers' Rehabilitation Department of the Ministry of Defense has dealt with 3,400 soldiers who were classified as disabled in the army since last October 7.

The Israeli army revealed that about 9,000 of its soldiers have received “psychological assistance” since the beginning of the war on the Gaza Strip on October 7, and about a quarter of them have not returned to combat. This came according to a new statement revealed by the Army Medical Corps, according to Channel 12 and the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth. According to the statement, nearly 9,000 soldiers have applied for psychological assistance since the beginning of the war, and approximately a quarter of them have not returned to combat.

The statement continued, "In total, about 13,000 regular and reserve soldiers required accompaniment or medical treatment at some level during the fighting, and thousands of them were injured in the battles."

By 28 February 2024 about 85% of the fighters who needed mental health treatment returned to combat: the Technology and Logistics Division is establishing a center for mental health services.

The Palestinian resistance says that the losses of the occupation forces are much greater than what is announced. Al Jazeera military and strategic expert Major General Fayez Al-Duwairi expressed his conviction that the numbers of dead and wounded announced by Israel “cannot represent the truth,” due to a discrepancy between the Israeli army’s data and the Walla website, which is close to the army itself.

The Palestinian resistance says that the losses of the Israeli forces are much greater than what is announced. Al Jazeera military and strategic expert Major General Fayez Al-Duwairi expressed his conviction that the numbers of dead and wounded announced by Israel “cannot represent the truth,” due to a discrepancy between the Israeli army’s data and the Walla website, which is close to the army itself.

In an interview with RT, Military strategist retired Tunisian Brigadier General Tawfiq Didi said that the number of Israeli army deaths in the Gaza battles is much greater than what Israel announces. Didi explained in an interview with the “Best Saying” program on RT channel, “The number of people killed in battles can be easily known, as the equation in wars is that for every 3 wounded there is a dead person, and the numbers now in Israel hover around 12,500 wounded and disabled people, and when we divide by Three, we find that the death toll exceeds 4,000, especially after eliminating more than a thousand tanks and armored vehicles, and I know what happens when Kornet missiles hit a tank. Its ammunition explodes and no one is left alive.”

He added, "The Israelis announce their dead only of those of Jewish origin and of the first race, meaning all Arabs, Falash, and those who are among them. They are not counted because they are of the second category. So I am sure that the number exceeds 4 thousand dead, and this is a very easy military calculation."

He pointed out, "The Palestinian resistance documented everything it did, unlike the Israelis. The resistance documented shooting at tanks and armored vehicles and destroying the houses in which the Israeli soldiers were holed up, and we saw them being killed... We saw the Kornet hitting the tanks, we saw Al-Yassin 105, so the difference is clear."

Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed have been held as hostages in Gaza since 2014 and 2015, respectively. Unlike the roughly 240 people kidnapped in the Hamas October 7 terrorist attacks, the campaign for the release of Mengistu and al-Sayed has received little publicity. Mengistu is known to suffer from what HRW deemed "serious" mental health issues. "Avera crossed one of the safest borders in the world, under the eyes of the security services," recalled Gil Elias, a relative. "We're talking about a mentally ill person who got lost." The calls for the release of Mengistu and al-Sayed have been barely audible during the many years they have been held captive in Gaza.

Abraham Wyner, Professor of Statistics and Data Science at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, reported 06 March 2024 that : "While the evidence is not dispositive, it is highly suggestive that a process unconnected or loosely connected to reality was used to report the numbers.... Another red flag, raised by Salo Aizenberg and written about extensively, is that if 70% of the casualties are women and children and 25% of the population is adult male, then either Israel is not successfully eliminating Hamas fighters or adult male casualty counts are extremely low. This by itself strongly suggests that the numbers are at a minimum grossly inaccurate and quite probably outright faked.... Taken together, Hamas is reporting not only that 70% of casualties are women and children but also that 20% are fighters. This is not possible unless Israel is somehow not killing noncombatant men, or else Hamas is claiming that almost all the men in Gaza are Hamas fighters....

"Israel estimates that at least 12,000 fighters have been killed. If that number proves to be even reasonably accurate, then the ratio of noncombatant casualties to combatants is remarkably low: at most 1.4 to 1 and perhaps as low as 1 to 1. By historical standards of urban warfare, where combatants are embedded above and below into civilian population centers, this is a remarkable and successful effort to prevent unnecessary loss of life while fighting an implacable enemy that protects itself with civilians."

This makes perfect sense under a third possibility, namely that the IDF doing a really good job of targeting male combatants, most of whom are in proximity to their families. There are no HAMAS barracks, so everyone lives at home, en famille. Co-habiting extended families are common [hence reports of dozens of family members killed in a single strike]. The HAMAS battalions are organized by neighborhoods, so it would not be surprising that multiple HAMAS combatants live in a single building. So casualties structured as one male combatant, one female cohabitant, and two children are approximately consistent with both expectations and reports.

Lord Roberts of Belgravia (Con) stated 08 February 2024 "My Lords, even if we were to take as accurate Hamas’s statistics and the 27,500 figure — there is no reason why we should; we do not do that with Putin or ISIS — if one subtracts the number of Gazans who have been killed by the quarter or so of the Islamic Jihad and Hamas rockets that fall short, one is left with a less than 2:1 ratio of civilians to Hamas terrorists killed, of whom there have been more than 9,000 so far. War is hell, and every individual civilian death is a tragedy, but — I speak as a military historian — less than 2:1 is an astonishingly low ratio for modern urban warfare where the terrorists routinely use civilians as human shields. It is a testament to the professionalism, ethics and values of the Israel Defense Forces."

In an interview 12 May 2024 on the Call Me Back podcast with Dan Senor, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu disclosed startling statistics regarding the casualties in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. Netanyahu stated that the ratio of Hamas combatants to Gazan civilians killed is approximately one to one, with around 14,000 Hamas combatants and an estimated 16,000 civilians having lost their lives.

HAMAS reported casualy estimaes indicate roughly 2.25 wounded for every one killed. This would suggest a bit over 30,000 combatants wounded. Combined with the claimed 14,000 KIA, the total of about 45,000 casualties rather exceeds pre-war estimates of about 30,000 HAMAS combatants. Possibly the casualty reports relates to all combatant militants in Gaza [PIJ, etc], which together amounted to possibly 15,000, suggesting a pool of abot 45,000 combatants, about the number of projected casualties.

If [in round numbers]. all of the Islamic militants in Gaza have been killed or wounded, who is firing at the IDF?

The term "uncounted enemy" in the context of the Vietnam War refers to the complex and often misleading metrics used to measure progress during the conflict, particularly the focus on body counts. The U.S. military strategy heavily relied on the notion that success could be quantified by the number of enemy combatants killed. This approach was based on the assumption that attrition—killing enough enemy soldiers—would eventually lead to victory by eroding the Viet Cong and North Vietnamese Army’s ability and will to fight. However, this method proved to be highly problematic for several reasons:

1. Inflated Body Counts: There was significant pressure on military units to report high body counts, leading to exaggerated or falsified numbers. This was partly due to the career incentives for officers who showed high enemy casualties, which supposedly indicated successful missions.
2. Mis-identification of Civilians: Many Vietnamese civilians were mistakenly identified as enemy combatants. This not only skewed the data but also led to atrocities and alienation of the local population, undermining the U.S. effort to win "hearts and minds."
3. Ineffectiveness of Attrition: The North Vietnamese and Viet Cong were highly resilient and had the capacity to replace losses more effectively than anticipated. The U.S. military underestimated the enemy’s resolve and the extent of their support among the local population.
4. Non-Traditional Warfare: The guerrilla tactics employed by the Viet Cong did not lend themselves to traditional measures of military success. Control of territory and winning local support were often more crucial than the number of enemy killed.

The focus on body counts as a primary metric of success was ultimately flawed and did not provide an accurate picture of the war’s progress. This reliance on quantitative measures failed to account for the political, social, and psychological dimensions of the conflict, contributing to the eventual U.S. withdrawal and the fall of South Vietnam.

As of May 2024, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have reported significant progress in their operations against Hamas in Gaza. The IDF estimates that around 9,000 Hamas operatives have been killed and about 8,000 more have been wounded to the extent that they cannot return to combat. Additionally, 2,300 Hamas members have been captured, bringing the total number of Hamas fighters removed from the battlefield to approximately 19,300 as of 22 January 2024.

When The Wall Street Journal published a report 21 January 2024 citing US officials estimates that the IDF had only killed around 20-30% of Hamas’s forces, the report mentioned, but did not add together all of the elements of removing Hamas forces from the battlefield. So the WSJ figures did not encompass capture the whole picture.

Prior to the conflict, Hamas's forces were estimated to number around 30,000 operatives divided into five regional brigades, each consisting of several battalions. The IDF claimed in mid-November 2023 that they have effectively neutralized 10 out of the 24 Hamas battalions, significantly disrupting Hamas's military capabilities. Hamas itself has acknowledged losses, stating that around 6,000 of its operatives have been killed. Despite these losses, the IDF faces ongoing challenges, including Hamas fighters retreating into a complex network of tunnels and blending into the civilian population.

The IDF's operations have also targeted Hamas's command structure, with reports indicating that 19 out of 24 battalion commanders have been killed, although three out of five brigade commanders remain at large.