Operation Iron Swords - Day 50 - 25 November 2023

Ccontents

NEW - Operations NEW - By-Standers NEW - Axis of Resistance NEW - Allied for Democracy UPDATED - Oasis of Martyrs UPDATED - Hostages

Al-Qassam announced the postponement of the release of the second batch of prisoners due to Israel’s non-compliance with the agreement. The Al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of the Hamas movement, announced delaying the release of the second batch of Israeli prisoners, until Israel adheres to the terms of the signed armistice agreement.Al-Qassam said through its Telegram account: “It was decided to delay the release of the second batch of prisoners until the occupation adheres to the terms of the agreement related to the entry of relief trucks into the northern Gaza Strip, and not to adhere to the agreed-upon standards for releasing prisoners.”

Israeli Army Radio said that the delay in releasing the detainees will be resolved soon, noting that there are discussions taking place regarding the number of Israelis who will be released. Earlier, Israeli Channel 12 said: “Security sources say that there are technical reasons behind the delay in starting the process of releasing Israeli detainees.”

Taher Al-Nono, advisor to the head of the Hamas political bureau, said that the Israeli side did not adhere to all the terms of the truce, and that there were many violations. He stressed that the Israeli side did not adhere to all the standards that were agreed upon to release the prisoners, in addition to violating the provisions related to the entry of aid trucks into the Gaza Strip, pointing out that it did not commit to delivering aid to northern Gaza, which threatens the future of the entire agreement.

Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majid Al-Ansari said that 39 Palestinians will be released tonight in exchange for the release of 13 Israeli detainees held by the resistance in Gaza. The spokesman added that after a delay in implementing the release of the prisoners, "the obstacles were overcome through Qatari and Egyptian communications." Al-Ansari said, "We reiterate our appreciation for the efforts of Egypt and the United States, the mediation partners, to overcome the obstacles to implementing the agreement."

Operational Update

A Palestinian group in the West Bank said it "executed" two men accused of collaborating with Israeli authorities and hung their bodies as a warning, highlighting growing fears of rising extremism as the war in Gaza continues. A statement issued by the “Tulkarm Brigade,” a group based in the West Bank city of Tulkarm linked to the Fatah movement, said, “There is no immunity for any informant or traitor.” Footage posted on the Tulkarm Brigade’s Telegram account showed a man apparently admitting to working with the Israeli security services and providing details of his activities. Other footage showed two bodies hanging on a wall and an electricity pole in front of angry crowds.

The Independent Commission for Human Rights, a Palestinian human rights group, issued a statement criticizing the extrajudicial killings, but held the Israeli authorities responsible for recruiting Palestinian agents. The statement said, "The independent commission holds the occupation authorities responsible for their crimes, including recruiting agents.

IDF planes dropped leaflets addressing the displaced in southern Gaza, saying, “The war is not over yet, and the northern Gaza Strip area is a dangerous war zone and it is forbidden to walk around it, and residents must remain in the humanitarian zone south of the Strip.”

The success of the truce agreed upon between Israel and the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) for the second day reflects the desire of both sides to make it a success, says military expert Major General Fayez al-Duri. Through this truce, the Israeli government is trying to obtain the largest number of civilian detainees in the Gaza Strip after it failed to liberate them militarily in order to offer something to the internal street, while the resistance is trying to arrange its cards on the ground and alleviate the burden of the catastrophic humanitarian situation on the residents of the Strip, according to Al-Duwairi.

In an analysis for Al Jazeera, Al-Duwairi did not rule out extending the truce, despite statements by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other military leaders about their insistence on continuing the fighting, indicating that the occupation government wants to free at least 100 detainees.

Regarding the repositioning of the occupation forces, Al-Duwairi said, “Anticipating what Israel is planning requires modern pictures of its forces, and this is not currently available, but there may be an intention to reposition the maneuver, and they are often afraid of being exposed to a surprise attack from the resistance if the truce collapses, because the resistance fighters are present in every area.” An underground place.” Al-Duwairi considered that Netanyahu's talk about a second phase of the war was nothing more than a populist speech inside Israel, stressing that if he had been able to achieve his goals militarily, he would not have accepted any truce in the first place.

The Associated Press quoted a US official as saying that a ship owned by an Israeli billionaire was targeted in the Indian Ocean. The agency added, "A container ship owned by an Israeli billionaire was attacked by a suspected Iranian drone in the Indian Ocean while Israel is waging a war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip." For its part, Al-Mayadeen channel quoted private sources as saying, “The ship that was targeted in the northern Indian Ocean received a hit that led to it catching fire.”

The ship "CMA CGM Simi", which flies the flag of Malta and was recently renamed "Mayet", was attacked by an apparently Iranian "Shahed-136" drone in the northeastern part of the Indian Ocean. Meanwhile, Roi Kayes, head of the Arab Affairs Department at the Israeli Kan channel, said, “No confirmation has been received from Israeli authorities about the authenticity of the incident or the ownership of the ship to Israel.”

The Ansar Allah Houthi group had detained an Israeli ship in the Red Sea, stressing that it would continue to carry out military operations against Israel until the war on the Strip stopped. The Yemeni military media published scenes showing the moment the Israeli ship was taken control . The Commander of the Yemeni Navy, Major General Muhammad Fadl Abdul Nabi, announced that the naval forces will continue to carry out military operations against Israeli ships and interests until the targeting of Gaza stops.

Jordanian security expert, Bashir Al-Daja, believes that there is a real threat to Israeli ships “in the coming weeks and months,” as he put it. In an interview with Al-Hurra website, Al-Daja stressed that Israeli ships, or those carrying the Israeli flag or owned by Israelis, will be seized as soon as they pass through Yemeni waters, “especially the areas controlled by the Houthis.” Al-Daja believes that “Iran and its arms in the region are now trying to alleviate the burden on Gaza as much as possible by pressuring the Israelis to force them to reduce their war on it.”

Al-Daja said, "If these actions continue and increase, the United States will intervene to try to deter Iran and its military arms." But he ruled out that there would be a direct confrontation, whether between America and Iran or Israel and Iran, pointing out that the latter has so far been content to employ its arms, which is what it will continue to do if the war between Israel and Gaza continues after the ongoing truce.

Al-Daja stressed that Israel does not want to expand the scope of the war, confronting Yemen or Iran because that “will lead to dispersing its military effort and opening unnecessary war fronts, as its focus now is entirely in the Gaza Strip.” However, he believes that the chances of expanding the conflict “still exist” and that the future situation is linked to what is happening between Israel and Hamas.

On the other hand, the Israeli analyst, Roni Shalom, believes that the threat to ships passing by Yemen is not specific to Israeli ships, “but also applies to all commercial ships that pass through there.” Shalom explained his position, in contact with Al-Hurra website, by saying that the first ship that the Houthi rebels announced their seizure “was not Israeli, but rather owned by a British-Japanese company, and one of the owners of that company is Israeli.”

For his part, the Israeli political analyst, Akiva Dar, believes that “fortunately, there was no Israeli on the ship that was seized by the Houthis,” and he also pointed out in an interview with Al-Hurra website, that the ship belongs to a company in which an Israeli owns shares, and is not owned by the state.

Israeli analyst Akiva Dar says, "Israel cannot sit idly by in the face of Houthi provocations at sea." He added that Israel is making the world a witness to what this rebel group is doing, "but it will definitely respond if it is directly targeted." The man suggested that in this case, it would be difficult to control the scope of the war, which might actually expand due to "Houthi provocations."

In the context of his speech, Akiva Dar recalled the missile bombardment that the Eilat region in Israel was subjected to, by the Houthis, suggesting that “Israel’s patience with that was in response to the pressure that the American administration did not impose for fear of expanding the conflict.” He believes that the expansion of the war will inevitably mean the entry of Iran and Hezbollah alongside Hamas against Israel, which means a comprehensive war in the region.

Then he returned to confirming that "Israel is based on the principle of not ignoring any danger because that gives the impression that it is weak," which means that the expansion of the war is a danger that still exists as long as there is a danger approaching it, whether from the Houthis or any other party on land or at sea. But he renewed his reminder that "as long as no Israeli is killed because of these provocations, Israel will be satisfied with diplomatic methods."

Bystanders

The Strategic Communications (Stratcom) Summit, organised by the Turkish Directorate of Communications, issued a declaration of intent on the conclusion day, condemning the Israeli army's massacre in the besieged Palestinian territory and describing it as war crimes. “The occupation and massacre in Gaza carried out by Israel which commits war crimes, hurts the global conscience, and openly violates international law,” Communications Director Fahrettin Altun said on Saturday in a closing speech at the end of the two-day Stratcom Summit in Istanbul.

The humanitarian pause agreed between Israel and Hamas is not at all enough to address the critical needs in Gaza, according to two NGOs in France and Belgium. The four-day pause, which started on Friday morning, entails an exchange of Israeli hostages and the release of Palestinians jailed by Israel. It will also allow desperately needed aid into Gaza, where Israel has killed more than 14,800 Palestinians, including more than 10,000 women and children, and imposed a complete blockade of essential supplies, including food, water, medicines, fuel and electricity for more than six weeks.

Pierre Motin, advocacy manager of the Platform of French NGOs for Palestine, welcomed the humanitarian pause but stressed that it will not do anything for an actual resolution. “We believe that only a durable cease-fire will bring about a sustained halt to the indiscriminate attacks on the civilian population in Gaza, and allow for the actual transfer of humanitarian aid that the Gaza population needs so desperately,” he told Anadolu. Motin described the situation in Gaza as “catastrophic,” saying the besieged Palestinian enclave has been almost “completely razed to the ground.” The situation in the West Bank is also critical, where more than 220 Palestinians have been killed by Israel, he added.

For Arnaud Zacharie, secretary-general of the National Center for Development Cooperation, a Belgian NGO, the humanitarian pause in Gaza is “totally insufficient.” If the air strikes are to resume after the pause, this would only be like a small dose of oxygen and “will certainly not solve the problem structurally,” he said, calling for a complete cease-fire and the release of all hostages. He also stressed the need to ensure respect for international law and relaunch a dialogue for a sustainable peace agreement that allows the two nations to live peacefully.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi’s talk about a “future demilitarized Palestinian state” raised questions about the meaning of this situation in international law, and the extent to which Israel and the Palestinian Authority accept this, while officials and specialists reveal to Al-Hurra website the possibility of implementing this on the ground.

Al-Sisi said during a joint press conference in Cairo with the Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sanchez, and the Belgian Prime Minister, Alexander De Croo, on Friday: “We said that we are ready for this country to be demilitarized, and there are also guarantees of forces, whether these forces are from NATO (the North Atlantic Treaty Organization). Or forces from the United Nations, or Arab or American forces, as you deem appropriate, until we achieve security for both states, the nascent Palestinian state and the Israeli state.”

The concept of "disarmament" refers to the reduction or even elimination of armament and military presence in a specific geographical area, according to the Oxford Textbook of International Law . In operational terms, it implies the dismantling of weapons, ammunition and armed forces in order to place them beyond military use.

“Demilitarization” also refers to the process of continuing to reduce the influence of the military in a given state and society. “Demilitarized zones” are those in which the presence of any fighters, weapons, equipment, or military facilities is prohibited, and from which no aggressive acts or activities that support or are linked to military operations may be launched, according to the United Nations .

The "demilitarized" zone is an area agreed upon between the parties to an armed conflict, and it may not be occupied or used for military purposes by any party to the conflict, according to the Red Cross website . Demilitarized zones can be established by verbal or written agreement in times of peace or during armed conflict.

There are several conditions that must be met in the “demilitarized zone,” the most important of which is the evacuation of all fighters, as well as mobile weapons and mobile military equipment. Fixed military installations or establishments may not be used in a hostile manner, no hostile acts must be committed by the authorities or the population, and all activities related to the military effort must cease.

The term “disarmament,” as it is generally understood (i.e., restricting military materials), aims to prevent the development of military threats against Israel, including conventional warfare, terrorism, and guerrilla warfare, across the territories of the Palestinian Authority and the prospective Palestinian state, according to a report by the “Jerusalem Center. ” For public affairs .”

A demilitarized Palestinian state has been an Israeli demand since the 1993 Declaration of Principles, which served as the basis for the Oslo Accords and the establishment of the Palestinian Authority, according to the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. The signing of the Oslo Accords in 1993 was supposed to lead to the establishment of a “demilitarized” Palestinian state, which has reached a dead end for more than ten years. In 1993, Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization signed the Oslo Accords under American and international sponsorship, as a basis leading to the implementation of the two-state solution after agreeing on what became known as the “final solution issues.”

Under the Oslo Accords, Israel partially withdrew from areas in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and their administration was taken over by the Palestinian Authority, led by Yasser Arafat, who returned to the Palestinian territories.

On 10 November 2023, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that Israel “has a clear plan for what it is working to achieve through the war against Hamas, ruling out “occupying or ruling Gaza” or a ceasefire at the present time.” In an interview with Fox News , he said, "I think it is clear what the future of Gaza should look like. Hamas will disappear," adding, "They must see (Gaza demilitarized), free of extremism, and rebuilt." In November 2009, Netanyahu confirmed that he would accept a “demilitarized” Palestinian state, as long as it did not possess military power and recognized Israel as the national state of the Jewish people, as the Voice of America website reported at the time.

Speaking to the Al-Hurra website, Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Lior Hayat said that the year 2009 was 14 years ago, adding, “A lot of things have changed since then.” He continued: "It is true that Netanyahu spoke during the years 2009 and 2010 about a two-state solution with a (demilitarized) Palestinian state, but this is not the government's policy." He continued: “Now I remind you that the Gaza Strip was supposed to be (demilitarized), but the truth is that Hamas smuggled weapons into the Strip,” adding that the situation is “not the same.”

For his part, Israeli political analyst, Shlomo Ganor, explains that Israel is in the process of a war that must be ended and its goals achieved before talking about “political solutions.” The armed and political structure of the Hamas movement must be “dismantled,” and it must not be considered a “component or partner” in any political solution, according to his interview with Al-Hurra website. The Israeli political analyst believes that the Palestinian Authority in its current form, its weak orientations, and the failure to establish sound rules for “good neighborliness” are factors that prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state, in accordance with the Oslo Accords. Ganor calls for a reconsideration of all the foundations on which “good neighborliness” is built, and for there to be a “new Palestinian authority.”

Israel believes that the term "demilitarization" includes a broader definition than what is usually accepted or stipulated in international law, because the common term does not take into account the changing nature of conflicts and military threats, according to the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. According to Israel's definition, disarmament is a means to an end "that no security threat, whether military or terrorist, shall develop or create any other disruption to daily life in Israel."

For Israel, disarmament means that no Palestinian army or military capabilities that could pose a threat will be created. There are precautions that guarantee disarmament and relate to “preserving the Palestinian police and internal security frameworks without clear military characteristics,” and only allowing Palestinians to “possess weapons aimed at internal security and the police alone.”

It also relates to “the absence of military alliances or cooperation between Palestinian security forces and foreign armies, the absence of military infrastructure, such as defense industries, and the prevention of the manufacture of dual-use components that are supposedly not intended for military purposes.”

In 2018, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas asserted that he believed the future state of Palestine should be “demilitarized,” according to the Times of Israel website. He said: “I support a state within the 1967 borders without an army... I want unarmed police forces with batons and not pistols, instead of warplanes and tanks. I prefer to build schools and hospitals and allocate funds and resources to social institutions,” according to what the website reported from the Israeli “Kan” radio.

In 2014, Abbas said in an interview with the New York Times that the Palestinian state “will not have its own army, but only a police force.” He added: "It will be demilitarized. Do you think we have any illusion that we can have any security if the Israelis do not feel that they have security?" In 2013, a Haaretz newspaper report indicated that Abbas said that the Palestinian state would be “demilitarized.”

Speaking to Al-Hurra website, Palestinian political analyst, Ayman Al-Raqab, confirms that the Palestinian Authority accepts the existence of “a demilitarized state living in peace with Israel, in a manner consistent with Israeli security needs.” The Palestinian Authority accepted the existence of a “demilitarized state” in 2014 and 2017, in an amendment to the Arab Peace Initiative launched by the late Saudi King, Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, at the “Beirut Summit” in 2002, when he was then Crown Prince, according to Al-Raqab.

The Palestinian political analyst believes that Sisi’s speech is an attempt to “stir stagnant waters, open horizons for peace,” and recognize a Palestinian state, in light of the impossibility of the “two-state solution.” The continuation of the "state of tension" means the expansion of violence in the region, and therefore political solutions must be developed for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, according to Al-Raqab.

Speaking to Al-Hurra website, international law expert, Ayman Salama, points out that “sovereign states” can “declare war and peace,” as one of their sovereign rights. According to international law, a sovereign state has the right to “declare war and conclude peace treaties,” and from here highlights the importance of the presence of “the army, even if it is lightly armed,” to protect the state, preserve its rights, and protect its borders, as he explains to the Al-Hurra website.

According to Salama, there are countries and territories within “demilitarized” states, which may be supervised by United Nations or multinational forces, but this model is “difficult to implement” between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. He believes that Sisi's proposal relates to the "fait accompli" after the Israeli army took control of the northern third of the Gaza Strip. But he rules out the possibility of implementing the proposal on the ground because “Israel will reject” the presence of multinational forces, whether from NATO, forces from the United Nations, or Arab or American forces.

For his part, Ganor points out that the proposal to establish a “demilitarized” Palestinian state is not implementable at the present time, but Israel may accept this later under certain conditions. Ganor stresses that the most important of these conditions is that “the neighboring country is not hostile to Israeli security,” and that Israel has the capabilities to defend itself. According to the Israeli political analyst, “the capabilities of the Palestinian state to constitute a source of concern and threat to Israel must be taken away,” and as long as Hamas is present in Gaza, “this cannot be allowed to happen.”

Ganor points out the necessity of paving the way for such solutions by “taking away the terrorist capabilities of such partners,” as he puts it. But on the other hand, Al-Raqab believes that the proposal is “viable,” in light of Palestinian approval and Israel’s acceptance. According to the Palestinian political analyst, the current Israeli government or even the opposition in Israel "will not accept the existence of an independent Palestinian state, even if it is demilitarized."

Axis of Resistance

Former Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said, “The Islamic resistance in the Gaza Strip was victorious through its steadfastness and popular support over the Israeli war machine, which committed the most horrific massacres over a period of 48 days against defenseless civilians.” In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, Salehi said, "The steadfastness and resistance of the Palestinian people forced the Israeli occupation to accept the conditions of the resistance to exchange a number of its prisoners in exchange for the release of three times as many Palestinian prisoners."

He continued, that the Israeli leadership's retreat from its statements and promises it made to itself that it would not negotiate for a ceasefire or a humanitarian truce until the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) and Islamic Jihad were uprooted and eliminated is the best evidence of the defeat of the Zionist entity in Operation Al-Aqsa Flood .

Salehi believed that in the support of the Islamic and free peoples for the Palestinian cause, and in considering them the owners of the right and the land, and in the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Yemeni Houthi group standing by the Palestinian resistance, important achievements had been achieved that contributed to the clear victory over the Israeli entity.

When referring to the developments in the battle during the hours preceding the humanitarian truce that entered into force yesterday morning, Friday, the former Iranian Foreign Minister explained that Hamas’ military capabilities had not declined, but rather showed that it was prepared to continue the war for a longer period, defying the occupation government, which stipulated the elimination of Palestinian resistance to stop the war. Its wild operation. He said that the United States and some European countries harnessed all their technology, especially their satellites and military industries, to support Israel, but they failed to destroy the tunnel network, free the prisoners, and eliminate the resistance movements.

Salehi continued that the Iranian revolution cheered for the Palestinian cause since the first day of its victory in 1979, and represented a turning point in the course of the confrontation with Israel, adding that the victories of the Islamic resistance against Israel began years ago, and destroyed “the myth of the invincible army,” while the defeats Israel is growing stronger in all the battles it has fought in recent decades.

He added that the Battle of Al-Aqsa Flood brought the Palestinian issue back to the top of the priorities of the world, which began to think about putting an end to this injustice practiced against the Palestinian people. It also exposed the double standards of Western countries that have long paid lip service to human rights and international laws and conventions.

The former Iranian Foreign Minister confirmed that the Israeli side violated the Geneva Convention dealing with human rights in situations of war, which was ratified in 1949, pointing out the necessity of pursuing the genocide file in international courts, adding that some Western powers do not see the need to implement international conventions unless It was in favor of her policies. He criticized the silence of some international circles or their belief in the Israeli story about targeting hospitals, describing the targeting of patients, children and women as the greatest evidence of Israel's failure to achieve the goals it announced before the start of the ground operation.

Salehi considered the massacres committed by Israel over 48 days in the Gaza Strip, which global public opinion witnessed live on television, as “unparalleled in history,” and he expected that the Al-Aqsa Flood operation would constitute the beginning of the end of the Western policy supporting the aggressor on the one hand and the awakening of the global conscience.

When he pointed out that some Arab countries signed agreements to normalize relations with Israel, he expected the “Abraham Accords” to be obstructed after the Al-Aqsa Flood operation. He believed that the secret to victory against the Israeli entity lies in steadfastness and prolonging the duration of the battle, because the internal front in the occupying entity could not bear a long-term war. Then, the American side will be harmed by prolonging the extent of the war and its expansion in the region, because the Middle East is no longer its first priority. In light of China's challenge and the Ukrainian war.

Salehi pointed out the necessity of working, after the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation, to build houses and construct collective shelters in the Gaza Strip, produce energy through solar panels and air fans, and store strategic needs of food, drinking water, and fuel for long periods. The former Iranian Foreign Minister concluded that the Israeli arrogance in the Al-Aqsa Flood Battle once again proves the necessity of training all young people in the Gaza Strip after they reach the age of 15 to defend themselves and their families, calling for coordination, precise and confidential programming for any future operation, and prior training to ensure the desired results.

A report by the Israeli newspaper " Haaretz " believes that the decision-making center in the Hamas movement has moved from the political leadership abroad to the leaders inside Gaza. The report quoted Arab diplomats as saying that "the center of gravity in the decision-making process in the Hamas leadership has moved towards the Gaza Strip."

The Arab diplomats' assessment, according to the report, is based on meetings held in recent days with the head of the movement's political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, and other senior Hamas officials living abroad. Two Arab diplomats who were present at the meetings told Haaretz that every decision related to the future of Hamas or steps with major political or diplomatic repercussions for the Palestinians “is taken in Gaza.”

Diplomats met with Hamas leadership abroad regarding talks on an agreement to release Israeli hostages and implement a ceasefire. One of them said, "Every suggestion and every discussion about the future was met with the answer: We will see what they say in Gaza." He continued, commenting on this, "It is clear that the center of gravity has shifted to the fighters in Gaza, away from the leadership in Qatar."

Accordingly, the diplomats concluded, "Every discussion about the next day or about the presence of Hamas in the Gaza Strip will be decided in Gaza and nowhere else." At the same time, the report believes that the future of Hamas is also important for Fatah and other Palestinian factions.

Sources in Ramallah told the Israeli newspaper that some officials sent proposals to Hamas to lay down their weapons, leave Gaza, and join the institutions of the Palestine Liberation Organization. But the same sources added that Hamas does not take such proposals seriously, "especially the leadership in Gaza."

Although there is no serious discussion about the future of Hamas in the Palestinian territories, the proposals indicate that the Palestinian Authority is seriously considering returning to the Gaza Strip and the possibility of holding an internal Palestinian dialogue.

Leaders of the Hamas movement, are seeking to exploit the truce with Israel to prepare for a new phase of the war that may last for months, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal. After the October 7 attack, Israel defined its war goals as ousting Hamas from power, killing its leadership, freeing kidnapped Israelis in Gaza, and ending any security threat from the Strip. Military analysts told the Wall Street Journal that the four-day truce gives Hamas time to prepare for a new phase of the war that may last for months, with the aim of reducing the momentum of the Israeli attack and creating international pressure to end the conflict without achieving its goals.

Former head of research at Israel's military intelligence department, Yossi Kuperwasser, said the most important thing now for the movement is ensuring Hamas' survival. He added that the movement hopes to be able to gradually release the hostages, and turn "the whole idea of ??defeating Hamas into something that will never happen." Israel says stopping the fighting will not deter the Israeli army from destroying Hamas' ability to launch attacks against Israel.

On the other hand, Hamas leaders already believe that they “achieved a major victory with the October 7 attacks by directing an intelligence and military blow to Israel and by keeping its senior leaders safe from the Israeli response.” The Hamas leadership consists of about 15 members, usually based in Gaza, Doha, and Beirut, and they make their decisions based on consensus. But the movement's war strategy is now closely confined to Gaza and may be unknown even to Hamas' political leadership in exile, making it difficult to predict its next moves, the newspaper notes.

Israel believes that the leader of Hamas in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, is running operations with a militant group, likely including the head of the armed arm, Muhammad Deif, and a few other senior commanders. Sinwar is considered the most prominent figure that Israel held responsible for the October 7 attack, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described him as a “dead man walking,” intending to kill him. Sinwar is working to achieve one of his main goals in launching the October 7 attacks, which is to secure the release of Palestinian prisoners. Analysts say that the release of detainees is a “personal matter” for Al-Sanwar, who is a former prisoner.

Analysts believe that "Sinwar will seek to exploit the pause and the possible release of hostages in the future to prolong the ceasefire beyond the four days, and to release Palestinians imprisoned on more serious charges than those who were released in the first phase." In previous statements to the Al-Hurra website, the Israeli political analyst, Eli Nissan, said that Sinwar might say that he “did not find all the kidnappers,” because they are with various Palestinian factions, with the aim of “reorganizing the ranks of Hamas.”

Nissan confirmed that Sinwar wants to stop the flying of drones in the skies of Gaza, which bring a lot of “intelligence information” to the Israeli army, with the aim of exploiting this later.

In a related context, Israeli political analyst, Joab Stern, told Al-Hurra website that Hamas will take advantage of the upcoming truce to prepare to confront and respond to the Israeli attack, and to work to “depict the extent of the destruction that befell the Gaza Strip,” and to promote this in the media in the face of international momentum that confirms "Israel's right to defend itself."

It is believed that the movement is counting on the deal and the truce because it may lead to “a cessation of fighting” in the Gaza Strip, because the continuation of the fighting “poses an existential threat” to the movement’s elements, which are suffering “huge losses and being subjected to severe blows.”

Stern points out that Hamas is seeking to "stop the fighting and negotiate additional deals and other stages of prisoner exchange" with the aim of "reaching safety."

Israel estimates that Hamas had about 30,000 fighters at the beginning of the conflict. A senior Israeli military official said that the army targeted Hamas leaders in the recent fighting in northern Gaza to disrupt the group's ability to direct fighters, according to the Wall Street Journal. The Israeli military does not have a specific estimate of the damage to the Hamas army, but it believes it killed between 3,000 and 10,000 fighters and weakened the group's ability to launch attacks on Israeli soldiers.

The Israeli military believes Sinwar is now in Hamas's tunnel network in the southern part of Gaza with senior leaders and hostages, according to Israeli analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Ehud Yaari. While the truce will give Hamas the opportunity to regroup, Israel is expected to launch a major attack on the city of Sinwar, Khan Yunis, hoping to isolate the north and south and force the movement to either emerge from the tunnels to fight or surrender. “For Hamas, if the battle stops before Khan Yunis is attacked, it will remain on its feet,” Yaari said.

The former Israeli general and National Security Advisor, Giora Eiland, confirmed that the fighting in the south will be more difficult than in the north due to the presence of displaced Palestinians, which may deepen the humanitarian crisis and increase international pressure on Israel to stop the war. He pointed out that the Hamas tunnel network and the presence of hostages there increase the complexity of the operation in the south. He added: "As long as they can use these tunnels as a haven for fighters, it is very difficult to achieve victory there."

The Wall Street Journal reported that depriving Hamas of fuel, water, and food may force fighters to emerge from the tunnels. But Sinwar is using the remaining hostages as leverage to negotiate a safe exit for himself and other leaders like Deif from Gaza, or another truce. On the other hand, Palestinian analysts say that Hamas is unlikely to leave given that its fighters are from Gaza. Some officials in the Middle East believe that Israel would face an insurgency if it sought to demilitarize Gaza and keep its forces there. But few Israelis and Palestinians believe that Israel will be able to destroy Hamas as a military organization and political movement.

Israeli military officials say they "know that Hamas's ideology cannot be eliminated," but they believe it is possible to "eliminate the movement's ability to wage war and rule Gaza." Merav Zonszin, a senior analyst on Israeli-Palestinian affairs at the International Crisis Group, points out that “Israel may face a choice between killing senior Hamas leaders and negotiating the release of the remaining hostages.” “In the end, Israel will have to decide whether it will return all the hostages or face some kind of negotiation,” she said, along with Sinwar and Deif. She added: "Netanyahu really hopes that he can assassinate them (the movement's leaders) before that happens, but in the end, Israel will not be able to (destroy Hamas) and recover all the hostages."

Allied for Democracy

Marwan Bishara, Senior political analyst at Al Jazeera, wrote "Israel’s deliberate, industrial-scale murder of the Palestinian people under the pretext of “self-defence” won’t enhance its security or secure its future. Rather, it will produce greater insecurity and instability, further isolate Israel and undermine its chances for long-term survival in a predominantly hostile region.

"In truth, I never thought Israel could have much of a future in the Middle East without shedding its colonial regime and embracing normal statehood. For a short while in the early 1990s, it seemed as if Israel was changing direction towards some form of normalcy, albeit dependent on the United States. It engaged the Palestinians and Arab states in the region in a “peace process” that promised mutual existence under favourable American auspices.

"But Israel’s colonial nature dominated its behaviour at each and every turn. It wasted countless opportunities to end its occupation and live in peace with its neighbours. To paraphrase Israeli diplomat Abba Eban’s infamous quip, Israel “never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity”.

"Instead of ending its occupation, it doubled down on its colonisation project in the occupied Palestinian territories. It has multiplied the number of illegal Jewish settlements and settlers on stolen Palestinian lands and networked them through special bypass roads and other planning projects, creating a dual system, a superior, dominating one for the Jews and an inferior one for the Palestinians. "As one apartheid was dismantled in South Africa, another was erected in Palestine.

"In the absence of peace and in the shadow of colonisation, the country has slid further towards fascism, enshrining Jewish supremacy into its laws and extending it to all of historic Palestine, from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea. In no time, the fanatical and far-right parties gained momentum and took over the reins of power under the opportunistic leadership of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, undermining Israel’s own institutions, and all chances of peace based on coexistence between two peoples."

Despite the Israeli consensus on the necessity of liberating all those detained by the resistance in the Gaza Strip, military analysts’ estimates differed regarding the mechanisms for this and the course and developments of the war, amid assurances that the truce will have repercussions on the declared Israeli goals of the war.

As the truce entered its second day, Israeli military analysts unanimously estimated that the temporary ceasefire represented a victory for Hamas and a setback and an undermining of the declared Israeli goals regarding the war. This was in harmony with the estimates of political analysts who confirmed that the deal was binding, due to the “moral duty” towards the detainees in the Gaza Strip. Most importantly, because of the failure of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to liberate them.

Political analyzes agreed that Israel does not receive the prisoners with joy and feelings of victory or accomplishment, but rather they are received in silence and with mixed feelings, which reflects the loss that the political level suffered before the Hamas movement, in light of being forced to accept a prisoner exchange deal after the failure of ground military operations to liberate them.

Under the title “We Receive Them Silently,” Nahum Barnea, a political analyst in Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, wrote an article in which he pointed out that the war reached its climax as it entered its eighth week and the temporary ceasefire took effect. He said, "The war on Gaza was fought by the Israeli army without restrictions, but when the ceasefire begins, many questions will be asked: Where is it heading, for how long, what are we doing here? And the word shuffling the cards that terrifies the political level and the army will return to Israeli discourse."

Behind the display of unity in the joint tours and press briefings of the War Council, Barnea says, “There are bitter and hidden disputes and discussions. The exchange deal was accepted reluctantly, as the military operations did not achieve their goals nor any achievement, and the return of a portion of the detainees was achieved through accepting the exchange deal and agreeing to a temporary truce.”

He explained that “there is no room for beating the drums of victory” because of the first phase of the exchange deal, pointing out that the messages that Netanyahu sought to promote, as if Israel had achieved a major achievement in the negotiations, are a claim that is “far from the truth,” adding, “Netanyahu prefers to bury his head in the sand. Discussing the issue of a ceasefire exposes his government to the risk of disintegration and collapse.”

The same proposal was adopted by Zvi Barel, an analyst for Arab and Middle Eastern affairs in Haaretz newspaper, who believes that the exchange deal may be an “insurance policy” for Hamas leaders from the assassinations that Netanyahu hinted at, noting that Qatar’s mediation in the talks with Israel demonstrated its strategic importance.

Confirming the decline shown by the political echelon and its acceptance of Hamas’s requests, the Israeli writer says, “There was the most interesting part that was omitted from the briefings of the political parties in Israel, according to which Israel agreed to transfer its military forces away from Salah al-Din Street, the central axis linking northern "Gaza in the southern Gaza Strip. This is the only crossing route for thousands of displaced people from the northern Gaza Strip."

Contrary to what happened after the actual start of the truce, Barel says that Israel agreed not to approach or attack the displaced people and residents who will pass on the road, even if they are moving towards the north, during the days of the truce, adding that this “raises fears that Hamas members will move freely during the truce period.” They move without interruption between the two parts of the sector.”

He pointed out that the terms of the truce agreement clarify the difficult dilemmas facing Israel, especially with regard to the nature and duration of the ceasefire, as well as fears that the truce will give Hamas an additional period of time to organize its forces, noting that the return of the bodies of Israeli detainees has not been discussed yet.

For his part, the military analyst in the newspaper "Haaretz", Amos Harel, believes that returning a portion of the detainees will not lead to an outburst of joy in Israeli society, pointing out that difficult days await Israel related to the continuation of negotiations to free more detainees, as well as the course of the war and its developments in light of the cessation of the war. The temporary shooting, and how this will be reflected in the future battle of the ground incursion into the south of the Gaza Strip.

The military analyst explained that there are still many obstacles in the way despite the temporary truce and the first phase of the exchange deal, as the Israeli side has not resolved the issues related to the declared goals of the war to destroy Hamas’ rule and military capabilities, and to liberate all Israeli detainees.

He pointed out that Hamas and the Palestinian factions are still detaining large numbers of Israeli civilians as well as military personnel, and therefore they will continue other war maneuvers, and will also escalate the psychological warfare directed against the Israeli public in order to reach a comprehensive exchange deal and end the war.

On the military side, Yoav Limor, a military analyst in the newspaper "Israel Hayom", believes that the Hamas movement will adopt a "tug of war until the end" policy to gain time in order to achieve its goals by seeking to prolong the ceasefire, in order to prevent the collapse of its rule in Gaza, and avoid the erosion of its power. Military, he said. The military analyst believes that the deal is a necessary step on the path to achieving the Israeli war goals, saying, “The deal is a compromise between hopes and dreams and reality, and in the Gaza case, the stubborn reality of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.”

In an attempt to search for any achievement for Israel from the armistice agreement, Limor said, “Unfortunately, it was not possible at this time to achieve a better deal that would return the detainees to the country. As the negotiations progress, Hamas will increase its demands, and in parallel, the dilemma will deepen on the Israeli side.”

Regarding the dilemmas, the military analyst explained, “We are talking about possible exchange deals and perhaps a comprehensive deal, and the Israeli public must understand that we are facing a bitter situation that is being talked about and the release of the oldest Palestinian prisoners such as Hassan Salama, Muhannad Shuraim, Abbas Al-Sayyid, Ibrahim Hamed, and Abdullah Barghouti, and this is a nightmare for decision-makers in Israel.” .

It is believed that prolonging the days of the truce and extending it, which will be granted in exchange for the release of more Israeli and foreign detainees, gives Hamas the possibility of a ceasefire for a long period, and this puts Israel before a greater challenge that involves stopping the war.

Thousands of Israelis demonstrated in Tel Aviv in support of the families of prisoners held by the resistance in the Gaza Strip and to demand their release. Al Jazeera's correspondent in Tel Aviv said that this demonstration has become weekly, but the number of participants is increasing week after week. He explained that there are slogans being raised in these demonstrations against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing government, and they are calling on it to speed up the process of releasing all prisoners in the Gaza Strip, and to do everything until they are released.

He stated that many participants in these demonstrations hold Netanyahu's government responsible for the major failure of last October 7 , which led to the capture of many Israelis by the Palestinian resistance. The correspondent explained that these demonstrations succeeded in forcing the Israeli government to make the issue of prisoners and detainees held by the resistance a top priority for the government. He pointed out that these demonstrations are putting pressure on the government to speed up the implementation of a prisoner exchange and calm deal to release all prisoners held by the resistance.

Former US National Security Advisor John Bolton said that the exchange deal between the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) and Israel has costs and benefits, and it appears that the Palestinians are the ones who will achieve the greatest gains. He explained in an article in the British newspaper The Telegraph that although the release of the Israeli victims of October 7 is praiseworthy, there are right and wrong ways to do so. There are costs and there are benefits, and here it appears that Hamas has achieved a major victory.

He added, "It remains unclear whether the deal sets a final negative precedent for Israel, but it casts doubt on whether it will achieve its legitimate goal of eliminating the terrorist threat posed by Hamas." Bolton noted that for Israel, the agreement is “fatally” flawed in many respects, even if it was implemented flawlessly. He explained that Israel would use the truce period to prepare for the next phase of the war, rotating forces, resupplying them, and the like.

He said that Hamas would take advantage of the pause to organize its ranks in preparation for the next Israeli attack, and launch more surprise attacks. Bolton asked, "How many Israeli soldiers will die because Hamas is given the opportunity to set additional traps and strengthen itself?" He described the United States and Israel's agreement to suspend air surveillance of Gaza for six hours a day during the truce period as a concession more important than the truce itself because it deprives Israel of information about Hamas' activities during this period.

Bolton believed that the critical military problem that Israel will face is the opportunities it will lose if it stops its attack halfway. He pointed out that Hamas's strategy is to take any temporary pause, no matter how short, and no matter how justified, and extend it to a permanent ceasefire . "This may not happen on the first try, but the pressure on Israel to force it to surrender will increase."

Bolton concluded his article by saying that the decisive political danger facing Israel is undermining its determination to eliminate Hamas. What is more dangerous is the strength of American support, which has already begun to weaken.

US President Joe Biden revealed that there is a possibility of extending the temporary humanitarian truce reached between Israel and the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ). This came in statements during a press conference in the US state of Massachusetts, according to a White House statement, today, Saturday. Biden considered that the Hamas movement's release of the first group of those it detained during its attack on Israel "is only the beginning," stressing that there are "real opportunities" to extend the four-day truce in Gaza . The American President considered that the time had come to work on “renewing” the two-state solution to establish peace between Israel and the Palestinians.

Biden praised the first stages of the truce and exchange, and said, “I engaged with my team this morning as we began the first days of implementing this deal,” considering that “this is only the beginning, but so far things have gone well.” He explained, "In the coming days, we look forward to reuniting dozens of hostages with their families," adding, "We also remember those who are still detained and pledge to work to liberate them."

Biden, who since the beginning of the war has supported Israel politically and provided it with various types of military support, urged it to make additional efforts in an effort to "complete the two-state solution," considering it "more important than ever."

Butcher's Bill / Oasis of Martyrs

Palestinian armed group Hamas launched thousands of missiles at Israel and deployed its militants to infiltrate Jewish settlements near the country’s border with Gaza on 07 October 2023. The 1,200 Israelis killed on the first day would be the equivalent of 36,000 Americans killed in an attack, as a proportion to Israel’s population of 9.3 million people (compared to 332 million in the USA). Israeli President Isaac Herzog stated: “Not since the Holocaust have so many Jews been killed in one day". PM Netanyahu stated "On October 7th, Hamas murdered 1,400 Israelis. Maybe more. This is in a country of fewer than 10 million people. This would be equivalent to over 50,000 Americans murdered in a single day. That’s twenty 9/11s. That is why October 7th is another day that will live in infamy."

It is the second largest loss inflicted on the Israeli forces after the 1973 war, as the Palestinian resistance killed more than 1,200, wounded more than 5,132 others, and captured more than 250, most of them military personnel, some of whom were high-ranking officers in the army.

About 15,000 Palestinians, including about 6,150 children, have been killed in Israeli airstrikes on Gaza since October 7, the Gaza Press Office said. The ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants. The Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Observatory reports that it had "counted up to this moment about 17,500 dead Palestinians". The Hamas-run government said more than 4,000 women were among the dead, with more than 33,000 more people wounded. The Palestinian Government Media Office in Gaza said the number of missing people had risen to more than 6,800 [nearly doubl the 3,750 previously reported], including 1,800 children still under the rubble. The Palestinian Ministry of Health announced that the number of wounded as 31,000 [previously announced as about 32,000 wounded],

Israel revised down the death toll from the October Hamas attacks in southern Israel from 1,400 to 1,200. IDF had said previously it was holding 1,500 bodies of terrorists, a total that now would increas to about 1,700.

The number of Israeli soldiers that the IDF admitted were killed in ground battles with the Palestinian resistance reached 72, while the death toll for the Israel forces had risen to 392 soldiers since the beginning of Operation al-Aqsa Flood. At least 7,771 Israelis were injured. The IDF previously announced that more than 260 soldiers had been injured since the start of the ground operation in the Gaza Strip, including 100 in serious condition.

Israeli army (IDF) reported the total number of casualties since October 7th to 392 and the number of troop deaths there to 72 since the ground war began.

Lebanon’s Health Ministry released its first official casualty numbers in fighting, saying 77 people were killed and 251 wounded since the start of the war on Gaza.

Hostages

On Friday 24 November 2023, a 4-day humanitarian truce began between the Israeli army and Hamas, during which prisoners and hostages will be exchanged, after 49 days of war on the Gaza Strip. Hamas handed over 13 women and children hostages, 10 Thai citizens and one Filipino to the Israeli authorities. Israel, in turn, released 39 women and children in Israeli prisons, and is scheduled to release 150 Palestinian prisoners over the four days of the truce agreement.

According to some estimates, Hamas is holding nearly 210 of the 240 hostages, while Palestinian Islamic Jihad is holding the remaining 30. About 40 Israelis remained missing.

Abu Ubaida, the spokesperson for the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, said on Hamas’ telegram account that 23 bodies of the 60 missing Israel hostages were trapped under the rubble. “It seems that we will never be able to reach them due to the continued brutal aggression of the occupation against Gaza,” he said.

The main points known about the hostage deal so far:

• there will be a ceasefire from both sides in the Gaza Strip,
• There is no ceasefire on the northern front with Lebanon, and the truce will be limited to the southern front with Gaza. But the ceasefire deal would also apply as a truce on the northern border with Lebanon, according to a Lebanese report in Nidaa al-Watan. "Hezbollah will adhere to the ceasefire on the condition that Israel does too," the first report announced, following a meeting between the leaders of the Lebanese and Palestinian organizations. An official source from Hezbollah later told Al-Jazeera that the group will respect the ceasefire also in Lebanon, reiterating the condition that Israel does too, adding that the Lebanese group was not consulted on the deal.
• there will be a halt to the movement of Israeli military vehicles penetrating into the Gaza Strip,
• During the days of the truce, the Israeli forces remain as they are and in their positions, provided that Hamas and the rest of the resistance forces adhere to a complete ceasefire.
• Israeli military overflights in the southern Gaza Strip will be halted for four consecutive days. Israeli military overflights in the northern Gaza Strip will be limited to six hours daily, in order to allow Hamas to locate the other hostages who are being held by Hamas terrorists and Islamic Jihad.
• Israel agreed to refrain from targeting or arresting any individuals throughout the truce's timeframe.
• freedom of movement will be ensured for all Palestinians along Salah al-Din Street, which connects the districts of the Gaza Strip.
• "The movement of residents from the south of the Gaza Strip to the north will not be allowed in any way, but only from the north to the south. Uncoordinated movement of trucks from the south to the north of the Gaza Strip will also not be allowed" the Israeli army spokesman, Avichay Adraee, said via “ X ”.
• The prisoners in Israeli custody will be handed over to the Red Cross, which will transport them to the Rafah area, and there, under the auspices of Egyptian, Qatari and American mediators, they will be transferred to the Israeli side.
• Upon their receipt by the Isreeli army, the occupation authorities begin releasing Palestinian female prisoners and children according to the agreed upon number
• 10 hostages will be released every day
• Minimum of 53 hostages will be released, mostly minors (under 19) and their mothers, [the 50 prisoners, who appear to be 30 children, eight mothers, and 12 elderly women]. Hamas has 80 captive children, mothers, and elderly women, but at least in the first stage, if Hamas does not find more, at least seven children and five mothers will remain in captivity. The number of foreign workers is 41 prisoners, meaning that Hamas has 195 Israelis, more than 100 of whom will remain in Gaza even after this deal.
• Israel will release approximately 150 Palestinian prisoners, women and minors (under 19), held in its prisons, and who do not have Jewish blood on their hands.
• potential of the total number released reaching 80 prisoners, out of about 300 minors (under 19), and 33 female prisoners, detained in its prisons. The mechanism of the process is for Hamas to send through mediators a list of Israeli prisoners who will be released the next day, and the Israeli government approves it, so that the implementation process begins the next day. The number of those released will be increased in later stages of implementing the agreement.
• hostages to be released do not include foreigners who do not have Israeli citizenship or foreign workers who were around the Gaza Strip.
• it is also possible that foreigners such as Thai citizens will be released, but this has nothing to do with the truce agreement.
• The deal does not include Israeli soldiers.
• on the fourth day of the truce, new names will be given to the Israeli detainees. Hamas will announce its desire to release them in exchange for Israel releasing Palestinian prisoners, according to the agreed-upon equation, which is one Israeli for 3 Palestinians.
• Israel would extend the pause in fighting for one further day for each additional 10 captives released.
• Hamas expressed its approval for the Red Cross to visit the remaining kidnapped persons in Gaza, and that it had committed to searching for the remaining kidnapped persons not in its custody, with the aim of seeking their release at later stages. But Hamas refused to allow the workers of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) to visit the hostages and evaluate their health condition. Hamas believes that "any information related to the hostages must come at a price paid by Israel."
• The agreement would also include the entry into the Gaza Strip, including in the north, of 4 trucks of fuel daily and two trucks of gas, in addition to at least 200 to 300 trucks of food, medicine and humanitarian aid
• HAMAS said the entry of aid into the Gaza Strip will continue beyond the days of the agreement, and that the aid that will enter the Strip includes basic materials and clothing.

Egyptian contacts with the Israeli and Palestinian sides to reach an agreement on the release of more Palestinian prisoners and Israeli hostages. Journalist Diaa Rashwan, head of the Egyptian Information Service, stated that Cairo received a list of the names of 13 detainees in the Gaza Strip , and 39 Palestinians detained in Israeli prisons, whose release is scheduled to be exchanged today, Saturday. He stressed that there are currently intensive Egyptian contacts with the Palestinian and Israeli sides, to reach the release of a larger number of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons and those detained by Hamas in the Gaza Strip. He explained that Egyptian efforts, in coordination with all parties, resulted in the movement of more than 50 aid trucks today from the Rafah crossing to the northern Gaza Strip.

Diaa Rashwan, the head of Egypt’s State Information Service (SIS), said in a statement that Cairo was holding extensive talks with all parties to reach an agreement that would mean “the release of more detainees in Gaza and Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails”. Israel had said the truce could be extended if Hamas continues to release hostages at a rate of at least 10 per day. A Palestinian source has said up to 100 hostages could go free. For now, 50 of about 240 hostages are to be exchanged for 150 Palestinian prisoners over four days under the truce, the first halt in fighting since Hamas attacked southern Israel on October 7, killing 1,200 people.