Operation Iron Swords - Day 54 - 29 November 2023
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NEW - Operations NEW - By-Standers NEW - Axis of Resistance NEW - Allied for Democracy UPDATED - Oasis of Martyrs UPDATED - Hostages |
Ned Lazarus, a lecturer specializing in international affairs at George Washington University in the United States, expressed his pessimism, and said that “the meeting of the heads of the Mossad and the CIA and the head of Egyptian intelligence with the Qatari prime minister will not lead to reaching a permanent agreement to stop the firing.”
“The only way I can see this being likely to happen is if Hamas agrees to release all of the remaining 150-plus Israeli hostages in exchange for a long-term ceasefire, and I think it is unlikely that Hamas will do that,” Lazarus said. He continued, "If the movement continues to hold Israeli hostages, Israel will certainly resume its military offensive to advance its goals of removing the threat of further attacks on Hamas by weakening its military capacity, removing it from power in the Gaza Strip, and obtaining the release of all hostages." At his discretion.
Lazarus also indicated, in an interview with Al Jazeera Net, that there are reports that the Biden administration argued forcefully with Israeli officials in closed meetings to increase humanitarian aid, and criticized the magnitude of Palestinian losses in military operations, but this did not lead to any change in public policy.
Lazarus said that there are also clear indications of a possible conflict between Israel and Washington over the governance of Gaza after the war, if Tel Aviv succeeds in removing Hamas from power. In this case, the United States insists on the necessity of the Palestinian Authority - after its revitalization - assuming power in Gaza, while Netanyahu rejects this possibility, according to Lazarus. The academic pointed out the possibility of Netanyahu being removed from power by political opponents and Israeli voters, who in opinion polls and the media express widespread anger at his government's failure to prevent the Hamas attack on October 7 and its failure to respond effectively after that.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said that the residents of the Gaza Strip are experiencing a “massive humanitarian catastrophe in front of the world.” Guterres said that the health conditions in Gaza's shelters are terrifying, and that more than 14,000 people have been killed in the Strip since the beginning of Israeli military operations. Guterres added - in a session of the UN Security Council at the ministerial level to discuss the situation in Gaza - that within weeks more children had been killed in Gaza than in any other conflict since I was appointed Secretary-General. Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad al-Maliki demanded that the ongoing truce be transformed into a ceasefire, and that the Israeli massacres in Gaza end, thanking Qatar and Egypt for the efforts that led to the truce.
Russia's delegate to the Security Council, Vasily Nebenzia, saw that the West deals with the Palestinians as second-class citizens, adding that "the crisis in the Middle East has not been seen the likes of it for decades." Nebenzia called for a return to the peace process with the aim of establishing a Palestinian state on the borders of June 4, 1967.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has led to an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe and an epic that tests our consciences, and the international community must take real steps for a comprehensive and permanent ceasefire in Gaza. He added that the truce must be a good omen for the start of negotiations on a permanent ceasefire, stressing that the resumption of fighting in Gaza will lead to a catastrophe.
Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Al-Safadi said that Israel considered the silence of the UN Security Council to be a cover-up for its crimes. The Jordanian minister criticized "those who justify Israeli aggression as self-defense," stressing that Israel has thwarted peace efforts over the past 30 years.
For his part, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan considered that “false pretexts for self-defense are unacceptable.” While Bin Farhan called for the adequate delivery of aid to the Gaza Strip without complications and delays, he stressed, "We are peace advocates, and peace is our strategic choice, and we want a similar position from Israel."
France's representative to the UN Security Council, Nicolas de Rivičre, affirmed his country's support for what he called "Israel's right to defend itself under international law," criticizing at the same time the violence committed in the West Bank by settlers. Rivičre called for the truce to become permanent and lead to a ceasefire, and for the re-launching of a credible peace process.
As for the American delegate, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, she confirmed that the truce would not have been achieved without the efforts of Qatar, Egypt and the United States. She stressed that it had enabled the delivery of food, water, and necessities to southern and northern Gaza, stressing that Washington had urged Israel to take measures to prevent civilian casualties. She added that the two-state solution is the only guarantor that stops the cycle of violence once and for all.
For his part, the Israeli representative to the United Nations, Gilad Erdan, said that the truce in Gaza is important, but its continuation means the continuation of Hamas.
Operational Update
Netanyahu told Biden the Israeli public won’t accept an end to the war in Gaza. Biden reportedly told Netanyahu that the manner of Israel’s assault on northern Gaza – effectively decimating vast swathes of residential areas – could not be repeated in southern Gaza, where much of the population of northern Gaza has fled. However, Netanyahu responded by saying that an attack on southern Gaza was necessary to “achieve Israel’s goal of destroying Hamas”. While the White House and the Israeli PM’s Office have not commented on the call, the US National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said on Tuesday that the Biden administration “does not support southern operations unless or until the Israelis can show that they have accounted for all the internally displaced people of Gaza”.
In accordance with Article 40 of the Israeli Basic Law, Tel Aviv involved more than 550,000 soldiers in its war on Gaza, according to what the British newspaper “The Times” reported, as it called in 360,000 reserve soldiers, that is, 20 times more than the force it attributes to Hamas, which is estimated at 25,000 fighters. This superiority is not limited to the numbers of soldiers, but also extends to military equipment and advanced technology.
With the start of the ground battle launched by Israel in Gaza, the mission of the occupation army became complicated, as it was seeking to achieve its military objectives in a quick and rapid manner. Israel was relatively able to split Gaza militarily in two halves, but the resistance destroyed 355 Israeli military vehicles, at a rate of 7 vehicles per day, as he admitted. The Israeli army had more than 70 soldiers killed since the start of its ground attack on the Gaza Strip.
On the other hand, the outcome of the 50-day war on Gaza was a military dilemma and a moral downfall for the Israeli army, during which the compass of world public opinion, which had been influenced by the dominant Israeli narratives, changed.
The Israeli army announced that its Chief of Staff approved - Wednesday evening - the military plans for the subsequent stages of the ground incursion into the Gaza Strip , while the Defense Minister, Yoav Galant, confirmed that his forces are ready to resume fighting immediately on all fronts, by air, land and sea. A statement issued by the army stated that Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevy held a session today to approve combat plans for the subsequent stages of the ground military operation in Gaza. He explained that Halevy approved those plans, without mentioning further details.
The announcement comes at a time when efforts are intensifying to extend the truce and reach a long-term ceasefire agreement, as delegates of many countries called during a session of the UN Security Council at the ministerial level to discuss the situation in Gaza - today, Wednesday - to transform the temporary truce into a permanent ceasefire.
In the same context, Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper quoted Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant as saying, “Army forces in the air, land, and sea are ready to resume fighting immediately.” The Israeli Broadcasting Corporation broadcast a video clip of Gallant in which he confirmed that the fighting throughout Gaza will resume soon, and “will continue until Hamas is defeated and all the kidnapped people are recovered,” he said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had confirmed that the army would resume the war in the Gaza Strip after the end of the prisoner exchange between Israel and the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ). The Israeli Prime Minister said in a statement issued by his office today, “Since the beginning of the war (last October 7), I have set three goals: eliminating Hamas, returning all our abductees, and ensuring that Gaza will never pose a threat to Israel, and these goals still exist.”
Al Jazeera's military and strategic expert, Major General Fayez Al-Duwairi, said that a number of factors are putting pressure on the occupation army and the political decision-maker in Israel regarding the return of military operations in the Gaza Strip , even though the army has the combat capability with the presence of an American air bridge.
During his analysis, he questioned Washington's continued support for the war on Gaza, pointing out that the ceiling of support has begun to decline, at a time when the Democratic Party wants to save itself. He pointed out that Israeli society - after the return of detainees and the failure of the army to release any prisoner - is tending to prefer the peaceful path, especially if the cost of human losses is high.
Regarding the acknowledgment by Chief of Staff of the occupation army Herzi Halevy of the failure of the army and intelligence to prevent the October 7 attack , Al-Duwairi said that the failure was political as well as military in terms of strategic, operational and tactical terms, and then the failure continued in the following days with landing operations behind the lines in the Gaza envelope and the storming of the Zikim naval base.
Regarding the ground attack on Gaza, he stressed that the occupation relied on the factor of speed and surprise under the principle of intimidation and shock, but the course of operations on the ground was always an intelligence failure despite the unprecedented fire bombardment. He reiterated that the occupation is dealing with “ghosts and a black box,” referring to resistance members in Gaza, and said that they are searching for an eternal life and not a mortal earthly life.
He pointed out that the Israeli army is no longer the army that defeated the Arab armies after it relied excessively on technology in recent years and built walls along the borders with Sinai, Jordan and Gaza, “and became entrenched behind walls.”
Regarding what Abu Ubaida, spokesman for the Al-Qassam Brigades - the military wing of the Islamic Resistance Movement " Hamas " - said, that the occupation soldiers are not ready and are shouting and calling for help on the battlefield, Al-Duwairi explained that this army is arriving and roaming in the West Bank because it faces defenseless people, while being cowardly facing any military force.
As for the accuracy of the numbers announced by the occupation army as losses among its ranks, Al-Duwairi invoked the historical dimension, as it is customary to announce numbers, but the actual numbers appear later, are revealed by the press, and are passed on through various events. He said that the announcement of the new occupation army losses came under pressure from the newspaper "Haaretz" - which was faced with counter statements demanding its closure - which prompted it to threaten to resort to the Supreme Court, believing that this is an initial announcement that will be followed by subsequent announcements that will take a wide time frame.
He stressed that Abu Ubaida has credibility in the Israeli street, and the Al-Qassam videos included various scenes, some of which included a complete explosion in the vehicles, which means that the Al-Yassin tandem shell reached a fatal point, resulting in the explosion of the vehicles and the death of those inside them. Other videos also revealed that the Al-Yassin shell reached a point with less impact, such as the turret or the protective plates, and here, Al-Duwairi says, the mechanism malfunctions and the soldiers in it are forced to get down, and they are then confronted with machine guns, and most of them fall wounded.
Reviewing the number of deaths of the occupation army between the wars of 1948 and 2023, Al-Duwairi stressed that fighting from zero distance leads to very large human losses, citing Israel’s losses throughout its previous wars.
Many demonstrations took place against Netanyahu, holding him responsible for the situation and accusing him of waging “his own war to save his reputation,” remaining in power, and “proceeding to destroy our dilapidated collective social, economic, and defense infrastructure,” as writer Yossi Verter said in Haaretz newspaper.
In his reading of what is happening, writer Nahum Barnea admits in his article in Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper that “wars cannot be won with false promises,” referring to the promises made by Netanyahu in the beginning to eliminate the Hamas movement and free the prisoners. Barnea believes that Hamas is still strong and controls the land, and that its strength is manifested through negotiating “hostages” and its demands, which are also implemented in the northern Gaza Strip, where the Israeli army is deployed, and not just in the south.
Yossi Klein believes, in an article in Haaretz newspaper, that Netanyahu is hijacking Israel, and that he thinks that the “victory” he is looking for will forgive him for his failure in the attack on the army on October 7 - as he says - asking about the definition of victory? “Let me guess, he himself (Netanyahu) does not know. In any case, the victory he wants is not a victory for the Israelis.”
Political analyst Michael Clarke says in the British newspaper The Times, “Tel Aviv has lost control of the war, and that Hamas was skillful and able to maneuver through its handling of the prisoner crisis.” This includes the manner of their release and what they reported about their detention period, which severely undermined the Israeli narratives.
The resistance’s messages were numerous, stating steadfastness, control, and military and political preparedness, and they reached hundreds of thousands of Israelis watching the operation and the Netanyahu government, as expressed by the military analyst at the Israeli “Wala” website, Amir Bouhbut, by saying, “Hamas has gouged out the eye of Israel,” while the writer commented "Yedediah Shatrin" reported on this in Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, saying that "the Sinwar struck the Israeli Achilles' heel with a direct arrow," invoking Greek mythology.
Former head of the Israeli National Security Council, Giora Eiland, believes that “if Israel accepts a truce, this means that the war has ended without eliminating Hamas, which not only controls the Gaza Strip militarily, but we also see this in the negotiations and the ability to communicate and provide for the needs of the population for food, fuel, cooking gas and other things.”
Citing Egyptian and Qatari officials, The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday stated that the hostages release deal brokers are pushing for further, long-term ceasefire extension. According to the report, such a deal "would likely require Israel and Hamas to make difficult concessions, such as trading Israeli soldiers for potentially thousands of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails." Furthermore, the officials told WSJ that the ongoing truce has contributed to the sense of mutual trust between the parties, needed to move ahead with further extension. Earlier on Tuesday, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported violation of the ceasefire by Hamas.
While negotiations through intermediaries have been difficult, long and often tedious, they did finally produce some results and an agreement in principle that led to the initial four-day truce and indirectly to the two-day extension. During initial negotiations, Israel unilaterally declared that the pause could be made longer by the release of additional captives, so not much had to be additionally negotiated. Yet, as more time passed, talks through Qatari and Egyptian intermediaries seemed to be dragging, and lists of detainees to be released kept being agreed upon and accepted later and later each day; at one point Hamas even threatened to stop the process and let the truce collapse.
Now, the situation appeared to be more complicated than ever. Hamas announced that it is seeking a further four-day extension, and even hinted at being ready to negotiate the release of all captives it is holding, in exchange for a more lasting cessation of hostilities. At the same time, Israel said it welcomes the possible release of additional captives, but sent mixed messages about the continuation of the pause.
There are several reasons for the apparent reluctance of both Israel and Hamas to prolong the truce by exchanging more captives. First, tactical and strategic military reasons, mostly on the Israeli side. Over the past few days, several representatives of the Israeli military indicated that they would prefer the current two-day extension of the pause to be the last. Generals told the political leadership that the military believes that fighting should be resumed on Thursday morning.
From the very beginning of the armed intervention, the Israeli army was wary of having to go to war without clearly defined strategic goals. I warned that soldiers detest “open-ended” tasks. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeated several times that his goal was to win the war by destroying Hamas, but he obviously never translated that into clear and measurable orders and tasks. Generals prefer to be told: “Go there and do that, if and when you achieve it your job is done”. Their eagerness to resume fighting is by no means an indication that they are bloodthirsty; on the contrary, it tells those who want to listen that they are realists.
Following the 7 October attacks, the Israeli military mobilised 360,000 reservists, deploying them alongside the standing army of 150,000 soldiers. While the fighting went on, each reservist and each unit, whether in Gaza or along the northern front facing Hezbollah, knew exactly what his or her task and purpose was. They were focused, in a military mindset, not overtly influenced by the atmosphere among civilians.
But as they stopped for four days, then for two more, many went home for short rest and were exposed to the doubts, uncertainties, fears and hopes of their families and relatives. For a couple of days, they lived almost as civilians, but, as the original pause was to expire on Monday, they would have had to return to units by Sunday afternoon – the time when the extension was announced. Military bureaucracy then had to decide whether to give them an extra day or two at home or rotate soldiers, with the eventual new group being granted just two days off and so on. Another extension would further complicate the logistics of leave and rotation, but prolonged semi-civilian life could also damage the determination to fight.
After October 7, Israeli national adrenaline ran high and everyone was ready to fight. Now, seeing that the country’s politics is a mess; the leadership is in poorly hidden disarray and the prime minister is clearly troubled, shaken and insincere, soldiers may start to vacillate. Aware of potential problems with morale and determination, generals obviously prefer to get the fighting over with, rather than endure more of the stop-go-stop-go orders that in all wars prove detrimental to the fighting capabilities of an army.
Bystanders
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned that the escalation of the conflict between the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and Israel in the Gaza Strip may undermine the global economy, and said, “If the conflict worsens and extends to the entire region, the risks of slowing growth and increasing inflation will be much greater than they are now.” The organization's chief economist, Claire Lombardelli, considered that the effects of the war on Gaza are still “relatively limited” on the global economy so far.
The organization pointed out that if the war in the Middle East intensifies and expands, its impact on the global economy may be mainly through oil and gas prices. She indicated that a rise in the price of a barrel by $10 may lead to an increase in global inflation by 0.2 points in the first year and a decrease in growth by 0.1 points. She added that trade may be greatly affected due to the presence of two international trade routes in the conflict zone, namely the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal. The Paris-based organization reduced its global growth forecast this year by 0.1 point to 2.9%, while keeping next year's forecast unchanged at a growth level of 2.7%.
The Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, warned - during an energy conference in Norway - saying: “The oil market is witnessing a state of tension due to the current crisis in the Middle East.” He added that the war in Gaza between the Palestinian resistance - led by Hamas - and Israel has not significantly affected market prices at the present time. But he explained, "If one or more oil-producing countries in the region are directly involved in the conflict, we may see repercussions from that."
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan described Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the "butcher of Gaza," considering that his name would be recorded in history with this description because he "committed one of the greatest atrocities of the last century." During a meeting of the Justice and Development Party ’s parliamentary bloc in parliament in Ankara, Erdogan called on Israeli public opinion to prevent the “beleaguered” Netanyahu from “shedding more blood and taking more lives with the aim of prolonging his political career.”
He pointed out that Netanyahu is endangering the security of Israelis and all Jews by “inflaming anti-Semitism” through the murders he committed in Gaza. He also pointed out that anti-Semitism and hostility to Islam have escalated across the world, and indicated that immigrants in Western countries are paying the price for "the irresponsible rhetoric of Western leaders, who distort the Palestinians under the pretext of Hamas."
He cited as evidence the targeting of three Palestinian students in a shooting incident in the United States last Sunday, and he said, “We know that Western countries do not show a desire for war against these (anti-Islam) terrorists, and they often try to belittle them by describing them as fanatics, mentally ill, or right-wing extremists.”
Erdogan also considered the aggression against the people of Gaza "the ugliest and most despicable attacks in the history of humanity." He added, "The mosques of the people of Gaza were bombed, their schools and hospitals were destroyed, the camps in which they took refuge were deliberately targeted, and bombs fell on displaced civilians on the roads."
He stressed that Turkey will try to hold the Israeli administration accountable before international law by all available means, and that it "stands today with the people of Gaza with all its capabilities, as it has throughout history," indicating that the aggression against the Gaza Strip is the first and most important issue during his international discussions.
Axis of Resistance
Hailing the “history-making” Al-Aqsa Storm operation launched by the Palestinian resistance forces against the Zionist regime, Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei said it has spoiled the US’ policies in the region. On the occasion of the Basij Week, thousands of the members of the Basij met with Ayatollah Khamenei in Tehran.
"The 'formation of international cores of resistance' that Imam Khomeini had envisioned has come true in the region today, and the resistance cores are changing the fate of the region, an example of which is Operation Al-Aqsa Storm," he noted, referring to the Palestinian resistance groups’ operation against the Zionist regime on October 7.
Referring to the failed plan of the Americans to change the geopolitical map of West Asia, Ayatollah Khamenei said, "A few years ago, in the issue of Lebanon, they said that they were looking for the formation of a 'New Middle East' based on their own illegitimate needs and interests, but they failed of course." The US, the Leader went on, sought to destroy Hezbollah, but after the 33-day war, the Lebanese resistance movement became more than 10 times stronger than before.
He also called the United States' failure to swallow up Iraq through the establishment of a US-installed government another manifestation of the failure of the formation of the "New Middle East." "In Iraq, which they sought to swallow up, the cores of resistance have entered the Palestinian cause today," he said.
Pointing to the fact that the geopolitical map of West Asia is changing in favor of the Resistance, the Leader described the first characteristic of this plan as "de-Americanization, meaning the negation of US dominance over the region," defining it as the loss of the United States' political power and dominance.
Ayatollah Khamenei underlined that the US is taking measures to dominate the region by strengthening the Zionist regime and by encouraging other countries to establish relations with it. "A clear and obvious sign of the de-Americanization of the region is the deeply historic event of the Al-Aqsa Storm. Even though this operation was against the Zionist regime, but it was also an act of de-Americanization," he added. On the same note, the Leader said, "Operation Al-Aqsa Storm changed the table for US policy in the region, a table that will be eliminated if this flood continues."
Ayatollah Khamenei further noted that the "disruption of false and imposed dualities in the region" is another feature of the new West Asia. "The dualities of 'Arabs and non-Arabs,' 'Shiites and Sunnis' and the myth of the Shiite Crescent have diminished. A clear example of this can be seen in the case of Palestine since during the Al-Aqsa Storm and before that, Arab and non-Arab Shiites have provided the most help to the Palestinians."
"In the face of those imposed dualities, a new duality called 'resistance and submission' has come to dominate the region,” the Leader stated. Ayatollah Khamenei also underlined that "solving the Palestinian issue," in the sense that Palestinian sovereignty should be established in all Palestinian lands is another feature of the new West Asia.
Elsewhere in his speech, the Leader referred to the Islamic Republic’s proposal for the future of Palestine, which involves a referendum for all Palestinians inside and outside of Palestine. "Some say that the Zionist regime will not agree to this idea. However, this resolve must be imposed on it. If this plan is pursued, and God willing it will, and if the cores of resistance pursue their incentive in a serious manner, this goal will be achieved."
Ayatollah Khamenei highlighted the importance of Al-Aqsa Storm in helping Palestinians get closer to their goals. He underlined that this operation has angered the Zionists and that they have lashed out by attacking hospitals, schools and public gatherings in the hope of extinguishing the flames of their anger.
Referring to the savagery of the Zionist regime as a result of its failure to achieve its goals, Ayatollah Khamenei emphasized that the barbaric acts have not only disgraced the occupying regime itself, but they have also disgraced the US and Western civilization. "The Western culture and civilization is a civilization that martyrs 5,000 Palestinian children with phosphorous bombs in the name of self-defense." The Leader noted that the tragedies that have taken place in Gaza during the past 50 days are a summation of the crimes the Zionist regime has been committing in Palestine for nearly 75 years. "The Al-Aqsa Storm is inextinguishable and God willing, this situation will not continue," he emphasized.
With the extension of the temporary humanitarian truce between Israel and the Palestinian resistance in the Gaza Strip for another two days, the Iranians agree that its continuation is in the interest of the Palestinian side, and consolidates the defeat of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu , who previously raised the ceiling of the goals of his aggression high, but did not achieve any of them.
In addition to the failure of the Israeli intelligence and security services to predict the Al-Aqsa Flood operation on the seventh of last October, the developments in the truce came to complement the security surprises of the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ), which insisted on handing over the detainees to the Red Cross in the northern Gaza Strip, where the Israeli forces were before. The truce is there.
Iranian circles have long been divided over the country's foreign policy over the past decades, but these days they are almost unanimous in the correctness of what the Islamic Republic has bet on in supporting the resistance, as it is Tehran's front line in the face of the Israeli occupation.
Political science professor Sadiq Ziba Kalam considered Tel Aviv’s retreat from its conditions for discussing a truce a victory for the Palestinian resistance, “which broke the thorn of Israeli arrogance.” In an article titled “The Armistice Agreement, Which Party Won the Battle of Gaza?” Published in the newspaper "Arman Milli", Ziba Kalam said, "The truce is an important step to resolve the conflict between the Palestinians and Israel," explaining that "the recent battle of Gaza proved that extremism and intransigence will not bring peace."
While the Iranian academic expresses his hope that the temporary truce will lead to “acceptance of the facts of the Palestinian file and reaching a permanent solution to the conflict in the occupied territories,” Iranian observers wonder about the features of the post-Al-Aqsa flood battle phase, and its repercussions on both sides of the conflict, especially the Palestinian issue.
Military affairs researcher Muhammad Mahdi Melki saw the Israeli side’s agreement to extend the truce as an indication of its true desire to escape the Gaza quagmire, explaining that “the Western Hebrew axis seeks to give a humanitarian character to the temporary truce, to cover up the defeat that Tel Aviv suffered.” peaking to Al Jazeera Net, Malki considered that "the ongoing truce will not last long," and expected that the occupation will resume its bombing of the Gaza Strip during the coming period, "in an effort to record a military achievement on the ground, after it failed to achieve any political goal through the truce negotiations."
The Iranian researcher expected that the Israeli right-wing government would delay international efforts aimed at a complete cessation of military operations in Gaza, “because that would be tantamount to a resounding defeat for a heavily armed entity that enjoys all kinds of international support, in the face of a resistance movement, and not a classic army,” as he put it.
The former Iranian ambassador to Norway, Sri Lanka and Hungary, Abdul Reza Farji Rad, believes that extending the truce “is an indication of the possibility of turning it into a permanent ceasefire,” explaining that “the longer the humanitarian truce lasts, the pressure from international circles and global public opinion on the party will multiply.” who penetrates it, and holds him responsible for resuming the war.”
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, the former Iranian diplomat considered that “the Al-Aqsa flood brought the date of the independence of the Palestinian people closer,” likening the violence against the people of Gaza to “the labor pains of the birth of the Palestinian state.” Farji Rad believes that "if the regional and international parties present an initiative to end the conflict in the occupied Palestinian territories, the ongoing truce is likely to turn into a permanent ceasefire and put an end to the decades-long conflict in the Middle East."
Regarding the South Lebanon front, Ambassador Farji Rad expected the continuation of the undeclared truce between Hezbollah and the Israeli occupation forces if the fighting in Gaza stopped, adding that “after the exhaustion of the energies of the Israeli entity in the Battle of Al-Aqsa Flood, and its repercussions on the Israeli interior, the latter will withdraw from its threat.” By launching an attack on Hezbollah, the option of war on its northern front will be removed from its calculations, because the party’s experience and military capabilities exceed those of the Hamas movement.”
The Iranian diplomat believes that the Battle of Al-Aqsa Flood “produced an Islamic troika with the participation of Iran, Qatar, and Egypt, and played a constructive role in the course of the battle,” noting that “Tehran’s geopolitical position will be strengthened after the Gaza battle, and the Western side will take a thousand steps to deal with files related to the Islamic Republic.” .
He praised the coordination between the resistance axis rings and the division of roles between them during the Al-Aqsa Flood Battle, and believed that “the final battle will put an end to the accusation of Tehran of interference in Arab affairs, and the challenges that were facing the Islamic Republic in the file of popular protests, and the threat resulting from the tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and Western pressures.” her continued right.”
“The post-Al-Aqsa Flood phase will not be the same as before it,” according to Farji Rad, who believes that the overthrow of Netanyahu’s government will be the first repercussions of the Al-Aqsa Flood battle, adding that “the recent war revealed the weakness of the occupation at various levels, especially militarily and security-wise, and that the entity’s thorn is "It will never be the same again."
Farji Rad enumerated the features of the next stage as follows:
- The return of the Palestinian issue to the world's priorities.
- Greater American and Islamic interest in the Palestinian issue and developments in the Middle East.
- The American role has declined in the face of China's rising power.
- The pace of normalization of relations between Arab countries and Israel has faltered.
- Strengthening the position of Iran and Qatar at the regional and international levels.
As for the political researcher Qasim Zakri, he adds to these topics “the possibility of a widening gap between Israel’s Western protectors and other countries,” explaining that “after the Battle of Al-Aqsa Flood, many independent countries will turn their backs on the Western narrative, because of the West’s dual policy regarding wars and human rights.”
In an article titled “The Possible Repercussions of the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation,” Zakiri wrote in the Persian-language Etemad newspaper that “Hamas and other Islamic resistance movements in Yemen and Iraq will strengthen their military capabilities,” and he expected “a rise in tension in the West Bank and a recurrence of battles similar to the Al-Aqsa Flood, which may require America intervened and opened new fronts against Israel.”
He believed that Israel and its Western protectors would work to "destabilize the security of the encirclement countries, especially Syria, after the Battle of Al-Aqsa Flood, in preparation for putting pressure on the Lebanese Hezbollah," stressing that he did not rule out the emergence of extremist movements such as Al-Qaeda, to take revenge on Israel and the United States, as he put it. The researcher concluded, "The absolute American support for the Zionist entity during the Al-Aqsa Flood battle may lead to a setback for the Democrats in the 2024 presidential elections, in addition to Ukraine's gradual withdrawal from the list of priorities of the American administration."
Allied for Democracy
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, stated: "From the start of the war, I set three goals: Eliminating Hamas, returning all of our hostages and ensuring that Gaza will never again go back to being a threat to the State of Israel. These three goals still stand. In the past week, we have had a very great achievement – the return of dozens of our hostages. A week ago this seemed imaginary but we achieved it. But in recent days I have heard a question: After completing this stage of the return of our hostages, will Israel go back to the fighting? My answer is an unequivocal yes. There is no situation in which we do not go back to fighting until the end. This is my policy. The entire Security Cabinet is behind it. The entire Government is behind it. The soldiers are behind it. The people are behind it – this is exactly what we will do."
Netanyahu relies heavily on the support of right-wing parties, including “Religious Zionism” led by extremist settler Bezalel Smotrich and the “Jewish Power” party led by far-right Itamar Ben Gvir, both of whom support the expansion of settlements in the West Bank, and also favor the eventual expulsion of the Palestinians from the West Bank, with Gaza to be reoccupied. The Israeli Walla website indicated that Ben Gvir and Smotrich threatened to dismantle Netanyahu's government and withdraw from it, and Ben Gvir considered that "stopping the war means dissolving the government," after talking about extending the ceasefire in exchange for releasing more prisoners every day.
The American website Stratfor believes that the Netanyahu government faces challenges in dealing with local and international demands for the final status plan in Gaza after the war, due to its heavy reliance on extremist right-wing alliances. The American website believes that Ben Gvir and Smotrich will not give up their positions in light of the new pressures to reach an agreement on Gaza, which will further complicate the political scene.
In an interview with the Hebrew Channel 12 - two weeks ago - Ben Gvir said, “I now call for the occupation of the Gaza Strip.” In addition, some members of the Israeli Likud Party are concerned about their political future, given the party’s decline in popularity. A recent public opinion poll conducted by the Israeli newspaper Maariv showed that only 27% of Israelis consider Netanyahu suitable for the position of prime minister, while 52% believe that the minister in the House of Representatives The war Benny Gantz is best suited to take over. The poll also showed that the Likud Party would obtain 18 seats if the elections were held today.
Al Jazeera wrote: "This indicates the division that has begun to intensify and the stifling political crisis that Israel is experiencing due to the course of the war in Gaza, the escalating differences in the approach to the solution and the war, the steadfastness of the Palestinian resistance, and the shifts in global public opinion with the exposure of the brutality of the Israeli aggression, the erosion of pretexts, and international fear of the expansion of the war, while Netanyahu continues. He was in internal, political and military crisis, and was confused about the war, negotiations, truce, and exit from the Gaza impasse, and the “image of victory” that he wanted to achieve had been burned."
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, today, at the Prime Minister's Office in Jerusalem, met with AIPAC leaders and thanked them for their deep and consistent support of the State of Israel. Participating in the meeting were the Director of the National Security Council, the Prime Minister's Chief of Staff, the Prime Ministers Foreign Policy Adviser and the Prime Minister's Spokesperson. Among those participating for AIPAC were CEO Howard Kohr, President Michael Tuchin and AIPAC Israel Director Cameron Brown.
Charles Dunn, a former official in the White House and US State Department, believes that the possibility of reaching a permanent ceasefire seems remote. Dan considered that “the policy of the administration of US President Joe Biden developed in response to the increasing humanitarian losses as well as internal damage. While Biden did not distance himself very far from his strongly supportive position on Israel, his administration began setting limits, including the White House’s ‘five no’s’.” And Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s broad hints about the diplomacy needed after the war ends.”
These noes came in a speech by Brett McGurk, coordinator of Middle East and North African affairs at the US National Security Council , at the Manama Forum a few days ago, when he said, “In the medium and long term, and even in the midst of this crisis, we must plan and prepare now and not tomorrow, or When the fighting stops. Therefore, our five no’s are: no forced displacement, no reoccupation, no reduction of territory, no threats to Israel, and no siege.”
Butcher's Bill / Oasis of Martyrs
Palestinian armed group Hamas launched thousands of missiles at Israel and deployed its militants to infiltrate Jewish settlements near the country’s border with Gaza on 07 October 2023. The 1,200 Israelis killed on the first day would be the equivalent of 36,000 Americans killed in an attack, as a proportion to Israel’s population of 9.3 million people (compared to 332 million in the USA). Israeli President Isaac Herzog stated: “Not since the Holocaust have so many Jews been killed in one day". PM Netanyahu stated "On October 7th, Hamas murdered 1,400 Israelis. Maybe more. This is in a country of fewer than 10 million people. This would be equivalent to over 50,000 Americans murdered in a single day. That’s twenty 9/11s. That is why October 7th is another day that will live in infamy."
It is the second largest loss inflicted on the Israeli forces after the 1973 war, as the Palestinian resistance killed more than 1,200, wounded more than 5,132 others, and captured more than 250, most of them military personnel, some of whom were high-ranking officers in the army.
About 15,000 Palestinians, including about 6,150 children, have been killed in Israeli airstrikes on Gaza since October 7, the Gaza Press Office said. The ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants. The Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Observatory reports that it had "counted up to this moment about 17,500 dead Palestinians". The Hamas-run government said more than 4,000 women were among the dead, with more than 33,000 more people wounded. The Palestinian Government Media Office in Gaza said the number of missing people had risen to more than 7,000 [nearly double the 3,750 previously reported], including 1,800 children still under the rubble, including 4,700 children and women. The Palestinian Ministry of Health announced that the number of wounded as 36,000 [previously announced as about 32,000 wounded], 75 percent of them children and women.
Israeli forces killed eight Palestinians, including a child, in the occupied West Bank, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, taking the total number of Palestinians killed in the West Bank to 239 since October 7. Israeli forces shot dead five Palestinians in the city of Jenin late on Saturday and early Sunday, and killed three others elsewhere in the West Bank, the ministry said on Sunday. Six other Palestinians were injured in the Israeli raid in Jenin.
Israel revised down the death toll from the October Hamas attacks in southern Israel from 1,400 to 1,200. IDF had said previously it was holding 1,500 bodies of terrorists, a total that now would increas to about 1,700.
The number of Israeli soldiers that the IDF admitted were killed in ground battles with the Palestinian resistance reached 75, while the death toll for the Israel forces had risen to 395 soldiers since the beginning of Operation al-Aqsa Flood. At least 7,771 Israelis were injured. The Israel Defense Forces on 28 November 2023 that three of its soldiers formerly listed as missing were dead. SSgt. Tomer Yaakov Ahimas, 20, Sgt. Kiril Brodski, 19, and Sgt. Shaked Dahan, 19, were killed by Hamas terrorists in the October 7 massacre. The jihadists took their bodies into Gaza, where they are still being held, the military said.
The Hebrew newspaper Haaretz revealed that the number of soldiers who were injured since the start of the aggression reached about a thousand soldiers, noting that 202 soldiers were seriously injured. The army rarely referred to casualties when talking about the deaths of soldiers during battles. According to the same newspaper, this policy differs from what was prevalent in previous wars and military campaigns, during which the army also published the number of its wounded, in addition to publishing other details. The IDF previously announced that more than 260 soldiers had been injured since the start of the ground operation in the Gaza Strip, including 100 in serious condition.
Israeli army (IDF) reported the total number of casualties since October 7th to 392 and the number of troop deaths there to 72 since the ground war began.
Lebanon’s Health Ministry released its first official casualty numbers in fighting, saying 77 people were killed and 251 wounded since the start of the war on Gaza.
Gaza Civil Defense teams recovered about 250 bodies of martyrs from the streets and roads in Gaza City and the northern Gaza Strip, during the past five days of the temporary truce between the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) and Israel. Civil Defense spokesman, Major Mahmoud Basal, said in an exclusive interview with Al Jazeera Net, that 90% of these bodies were decomposed and unidentified, because they had been lying in the streets for a long time, without the ambulance and civil defense teams being able to reach and recover them, due to the intensity of the Israeli air strikes. And the ground incursion deep into the areas of Gaza City and its north.
The Civil Defense spokesman talked about the great challenges facing their work in the field, and the painful and poignant humanitarian scenes of survivors under the rubble of their destroyed homes, and the families of martyrs under the rubble, wracked with pain, and the ambulance and civil defense teams are unable to recover them, regardless of the fact that these homes are in dangerous areas. There are still Israeli tanks and vehicles there, or due to weak human and material capabilities.
"Many of these scenes may not have reached the imagination of the filmmakers and fictional films... the decomposing bodies of martyrs, including a group of women, children and men who were killed by the occupation forces while they were raising white flags and on their way to flee from the north of the Gaza Strip towards its south, after the intensity of the aggression against those areas increased. With an Israeli motive to empty it of its residents and push them to migrate towards the cities of the southern Gaza Strip.
"This crime demonstrated the lie of the safe paths and areas claimed by the occupation, as these and others were exposed to gunfire and direct targeting, without regard to the white flags that indicated their peacefulness.
"There is a scene that cannot fade from my memory, of a mother who was rescued by civil defense crews while she was hugging her child to protect him until she took her last breath, and another scene of an entire family that our teams recovered from under the rubble of their home after 5 days, and all of its members, men, women, and children, were alive.....
"So far, since the armistice agreement entered into force, we have recovered approximately 250 bodies, 90% of which were decomposed and unidentified. It was difficult to identify them due to the severe disfigurement they sustained as a result of their exposure to intense fire and their transformation into body parts as well as their decomposition, as the majority of them remained in the streets and roads since the beginning of the war....
"Our work during the days of the truce was limited to recovering the bodies of martyrs from the streets and squares, and we did not deal with the destroyed homes and residential buildings, under which the Ministry of Health estimates about 7,000 missing persons were trapped, as their recovery requires huge mechanisms, to remove thousands of tons of rubble, and the Civil Defense in the northern regions. The Strip, including Gaza City, only has one excavator, after the occupation forces targeted three excavators and put them out of service, and practiced terrorism against those working on these excavators during the weeks of the war, to discourage them from working and moving in the field."
Hostages
Israel’s army says 10 Israeli captives and four Thai citizens have been released in Gaza following the earlier release of two Israelis with Russian citizenship. Thirty Palestinian women and children were released from Israeli jails on the sixth day of an extended truce between Israel and Hamas. The release of Palestinian prisoners continued in exchange for the daily release of Israeli prisoners from Gaza, according to the exchange deal concluded between the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and Israel, which began in its first batch last Friday. The Israeli Channel 12 said that the sixth batch of Israeli detainees includes 5 children and 7 women.
The Al-Qassam Brigades announced the death of an Israeli woman and her two children who were detained by them as a result of a previous Israeli bombing of Gaza.
The military wing of Hamas also announced that it had released two Russian detainees, in response to the request of the Russian leadership. The Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of the Islamic Resistance Movement “Hamas,” broadcast scenes of the handover of two Russian detainees in the Gaza Strip to the International Red Cross, during the sixth day of the temporary humanitarian truce.
Before the release of the sixth batch of Israelis detained in Gaza, Israeli government spokesman Elon Levy said that 161 Israelis are still detained in the Strip [al-Jazeera reported "more than 100 prisoners" remain with the resistance]. Levy added that Israel has prepared a list of 50 Palestinian detainees to be released if Hamas continues to release detainees. At least 76, and possibly more than 80, hostages had been released by Hamas over six days of a cease-fire. During the pause, Hamas fighters released 60 Israeli women and children. In return, Israel released 180 security detainees from its prisons, all of them women and minors under the age of 19. Hamas also separately released 19 foreign hostages, most of them Thai farm workers, under separate agreements parallel to the truce agreement.
Thirty children held by Gazan terrorists have been released as part of a four-day ceasefire deal with Hamas that began Friday, but 10 still remain in the Strip. The terror group has said it planned to release 20 more hostages as part of a two-day extension to the deal. U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said the Biden administration believes eight or nine more Americans are still being held but the U.S. does not have "solid information on each and every one of them." Perhaps 100 are Israeli civilians. Some of the rest are soldiers, seized when Hamas raided military bases in Israel. They may end up being held the longest. The Israeli military has not specified how many soldiers were captured, nor their ranks.
According to some estimates, Hamas was initially holding nearly 210 of the 240 hostages, while Palestinian Islamic Jihad was holding the remaining 30. About 40 Israelis remained missing. More than 40 hostages taken from Israel into Gaza on October 7th are not currently in the custody of Hamas, the group responsible for the attack, according to a CNN report based on a diplomatic source briefed on the negotiations, CNN's prior reports had indicated that an estimated 40 to 50 hostages were held by Palestinian Islamic Jihad or other unidentified groups or individuals.
Abu Ubaida, the spokesperson for the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, said on Hamas’ telegram account that 23 bodies of the 60 missing Israel hostages were trapped under the rubble. “It seems that we will never be able to reach them due to the continued brutal aggression of the occupation against Gaza,” he said.
The main points known about the hostage deal so far:
- there will be a ceasefire from both sides in the Gaza Strip,
- There is no ceasefire on the northern front with Lebanon, and the truce will be limited to the southern front with Gaza. But the ceasefire deal would also apply as a truce on the northern border with Lebanon, according to a Lebanese report in Nidaa al-Watan. "Hezbollah will adhere to the ceasefire on the condition that Israel does too," the first report announced, following a meeting between the leaders of the Lebanese and Palestinian organizations. An official source from Hezbollah later told Al-Jazeera that the group will respect the ceasefire also in Lebanon, reiterating the condition that Israel does too, adding that the Lebanese group was not consulted on the deal.
- there will be a halt to the movement of Israeli military vehicles penetrating into the Gaza Strip,
- During the days of the truce, the Israeli forces remain as they are and in their positions, provided that Hamas and the rest of the resistance forces adhere to a complete ceasefire.
- Israeli military overflights in the southern Gaza Strip will be halted for four consecutive days. Israeli military overflights in the northern Gaza Strip will be limited to six hours daily, in order to allow Hamas to locate the other hostages who are being held by Hamas terrorists and Islamic Jihad.
- Israel agreed to refrain from targeting or arresting any individuals throughout the truce's timeframe.
- freedom of movement will be ensured for all Palestinians along Salah al-Din Street, which connects the districts of the Gaza Strip.
- "The movement of residents from the south of the Gaza Strip to the north will not be allowed in any way, but only from the north to the south. Uncoordinated movement of trucks from the south to the north of the Gaza Strip will also not be allowed" the Israeli army spokesman, Avichay Adraee, said via “ X ”.
- The prisoners in Israeli custody will be handed over to the Red Cross, which will transport them to the Rafah area, and there, under the auspices of Egyptian, Qatari and American mediators, they will be transferred to the Israeli side.
- Upon their receipt by the Isreeli army, the occupation authorities begin releasing Palestinian female prisoners and children according to the agreed upon number
- 10 hostages will be released every day
- Minimum of 53 hostages will be released, mostly minors (under 19) and their mothers, [the 50 prisoners, who appear to be 30 children, eight mothers, and 12 elderly women]. Hamas has 80 captive children, mothers, and elderly women, but at least in the first stage, if Hamas does not find more, at least seven children and five mothers will remain in captivity. The number of foreign workers is 41 prisoners, meaning that Hamas has 195 Israelis, more than 100 of whom will remain in Gaza even after this deal.
- Israel will release approximately 150 Palestinian prisoners, women and minors (under 19), held in its prisons, and who do not have Jewish blood on their hands.
- potential of the total number released reaching 80 prisoners, out of about 300 minors (under 19), and 33 female prisoners, detained in its prisons. The mechanism of the process is for Hamas to send through mediators a list of Israeli prisoners who will be released the next day, and the Israeli government approves it, so that the implementation process begins the next day. The number of those released will be increased in later stages of implementing the agreement.
- hostages to be released do not include foreigners who do not have Israeli citizenship or foreign workers who were around the Gaza Strip.
- it is also possible that foreigners such as Thai citizens will be released, but this has nothing to do with the truce agreement.
- The deal does not include Israeli soldiers.
- on the fourth day of the truce, new names will be given to the Israeli detainees. Hamas will announce its desire to release them in exchange for Israel releasing Palestinian prisoners, according to the agreed-upon equation, which is one Israeli for 3 Palestinians.
- Israel would extend the pause in fighting for one further day for each additional 10 captives released.
- Hamas expressed its approval for the Red Cross to visit the remaining kidnapped persons in Gaza, and that it had committed to searching for the remaining kidnapped persons not in its custody, with the aim of seeking their release at later stages. But Hamas refused to allow the workers of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) to visit the hostages and evaluate their health condition. Hamas believes that "any information related to the hostages must come at a price paid by Israel."
- The agreement would also include the entry into the Gaza Strip, including in the north, of 4 trucks of fuel daily and two trucks of gas, in addition to at least 200 to 300 trucks of food, medicine and humanitarian aid
- HAMAS said the entry of aid into the Gaza Strip will continue beyond the days of the agreement, and that the aid that will enter the Strip includes basic materials and clothing.
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