Operation Iron Swords - Day 53 - 28 November 2023

Ccontents

NEW - Operations NEW - By-Standers NEW - Axis of Resistance NEW - Allied for Democracy UPDATED - Oasis of Martyrs UPDATED - Hostages

On the 53rd day of the Israeli war in Gaza, the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) and the Islamic Jihad movement handed over the fifth batch of Israeli detainees in the Gaza Strip to the International Committee of the Red Cross, in exchange for the Israeli authorities releasing 30 Palestinian prisoners in the framework of Prisoner exchange deal between the two parties.

Meanwhile, the Qatari capital, Doha, witnessed diplomatic movement to reach a broader deal, as the CIA media office confirmed to Al Jazeera that the agency’s director, William Burns, was in Doha to hold discussions on the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas and the issue of hostages, while the Qatari Foreign Ministry confirmed that work is underway to strengthen The role of Qatari mediation to reach a permanent ceasefire.

As for Gaza, which is on the fifth day of the truce after it was extended for two days, aid continues to enter the Strip, but local and UN officials say that what enters is still insufficient for needs, especially with regard to food, medical and fuel supplies.

The Israeli Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben Gvir, called on the government to cancel the truce concluded with Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, and to resume the war, after what he described as a “violation” of the ceasefire agreement. According to the Israeli army, Hamas members targeted soldiers stationed in the northern part, in the first major clear violation of the agreement, which entered its fifth day, after a four-day ceasefire was extended at the last minute for two additional days in order to provide the opportunity to release more hostages.

According to what was reported by the Times of Israel newspaper, Ben Gvir urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a statement, “not to contain the incident,” demanding that the army be ordered to “resume crushing Hamas by force,” adding that “we cannot wait until They kill our fighters."

A single column of smoke loomed over the barren lands of the war zone in the northern Gaza Strip on Tuesday, and was visible across the fence in Israel, but there was no sign of planes in the sky or the sound of explosions. Both sides reported Israeli artillery fire on the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood in Gaza City in the morning, but there were no immediate reports of human casualties. An Israeli army spokesman said, "After suspects approached the army forces, an Israeli tank fired a warning shell."

An op-ed written for the New York Times detailed that the extension of the truce from four days to six is causing doubt over whether the Israeli occupation would resume its hostilities in Gaza or if it would stop its onslaught dead in its tracks. The extension of the ceasefire has also prompted expectations that both the Israeli occupation and the Resistance may consider further short-term renewals. As the duration of the ceasefire grows, external pressure on "Israel" to make it permanent intensifies, while internal pressures urge for its conclusion.

The longer this dynamic persists, the more complex "Israel's" position becomes: daily prisoner releases boost Hamas' popularity in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, potentially impeding Israel's goal of "annihilating" the Resistance movement. Analysts suggest that domestic pressures may prompt Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to resume operations sooner rather than later. A delayed resumption could lead to tensions with far-right government ministers who supported the ceasefire with the understanding that the invasion would resume shortly.

Israeli forces faced a wave of media criticism, after the Hamas movement handed over a group of Israeli prisoners in the heart of Gaza City, which proved that they are still capable of confrontation, after the Israeli military leaders had claimed during the past few days It eliminated dozens of Hamas leaders, weakened it greatly, and left it with nothing in the northern Gaza Strip.

Operational Update

Chief of the General Staff, LTG Herzi Halevi, stated: "The IDF and its soldiers fight fiercely to protect the lives of our people while upholding the values of the IDF. We have created conditions for the framework for the release of the first group of children and mothers held hostage during this pause. When the framework is completed, we will return to our operations with determination, for the continued release of the hostages and the complete dismantlement of Hamas."

The Israeli army will return to fighting against Hamas with more strength and operate across all of the Gaza Strip after the humanitarian truce ends, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said. Gallant said that when Israel returns to fighting Hamas in Gaza, its “strength will be greater, and it will take place throughout the entire Strip,” according to the Times of Israel.

Addressing the troops of the Givati Infantry Brigade and of the Armored Corps, he said: “You now have a few days, we will return to fighting, we will use the same amount of power and more. Remember that while you are organizing and resting and investigating, the enemy is also doing the same.”

He added: “You will meet something that is a little more ready. Therefore, [Hamas] will meet first the bombs of the Air Force, and after that the shells of the tanks and the artillery and the scoops of the D9 [bulldozers], and finally also gunfire of the infantry troops. “We will fight in the entire Strip,” Gallant stressed.

Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari, in his comment on the “violation of the ceasefire,” said, “Anyone who thinks this is the right time is wrong,” indicating “the army’s readiness for confrontation.” According to the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, Daniel Hagari referred to “the violation of the ceasefire today in the northern Gaza Strip, following the detonation of three explosive devices near the IDF forces,” saying: “If any of our enemies believe that this is the time... It is appropriate, he is wrong... The security of our forces comes first.”

He added: "We are very prepared, and any attempt to harm our forces will be met with very strong fire." When asked if “the ceasefire undermines the vigilance of the Israeli army,” Hagari replied: “We are on alert and prepared, we are ready, and we are taking care of the correct changing of the guards... We are providing equipment, and we agree to plans to continue the war.”

The Israeli Broadcasting Corporation reported that negotiations in the State of Qatar seek to reach a new armistice agreement and the release of all Israeli prisoners, including soldiers, in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners.

The Israeli army said earlier that 3 explosive devices were detonated near its forces in two different locations in the northern Gaza Strip, considering it a "violation of the truce by the Hamas movement." On the other hand, the Al-Qassam Brigades spokesman confirmed that Israeli forces today violated the truce in the northern Gaza Strip , resulting in clashes between the two sides.

While prominent Israeli officials confirm the continuation of the military campaign in Gaza after the end of the “truce” in effect for two additional days, American warnings, revealed by the media, highlight “challenges” and a complex scene that may reflect negatively and create a major humanitarian catastrophe if the Israeli army resumes its operations on the Gaza Strip. The land, specifically in the south of the Strip.

Axios quoted an American official as saying that “the Biden administration is concerned about a possible Israeli military operation in southern Gaza,” and that it “informed Israel that “the displacement that may occur as a result will exceed the capacity of any humanitarian support network.” The American official indicated that "the Israeli government's reaction was acceptable," revealing that "there was an understanding on the necessity of launching a different type of campaign in the south," indicating a military change that might occur if the operation resumed.

The New York Times explained that the United States warned Israel that it must "fight surgically (precisely) in the southern Gaza Strip and avoid further mass displacement of Palestinians in its war against Hamas." The newspaper considered the American position “the strongest warning from the Biden administration to Israeli officials so far regarding the next phase of their military operation.”

It is not known whether the truce that was extended on Monday for another two days may proceed on a fixed path, meaning that Israel and Hamas will tend to continue with it for more days in the next phase, in exchange for continuing the exchange of hostages and detainees. However, it is clear from the statements of Israeli officials that Israel will not back down from its military operation in Gaza until the full objectives are achieved, most notably the dismantling of Hamas, and that it is in the process of resuming the fighting and heading south.

In the latest official positions, Israeli war cabinet minister Benny Gantz said during his visit to the south: “After the ceasefire, there will be renewed shooting. The entire war council is united in this position, and there is no other option.” Gantz added “We are preparing for the next stages of the war”.

Meanwhile, Chief of Staff Herzi Halevy confirmed that “the IDF is ready to continue fighting,” and said: “We are using the days of the period of temporary suspension of military activities to learn, enhance readiness, and approve operational plans for the subsequent stages.” Commenting on the American warnings, Halevy added: “I speak a lot with the senior leadership in the United States and also with the political leaders there. We are holding dialogues... and hearing proposals.” He continued: "They are well aware that it is not good for us to engage in fighting in an area full of civilians. How do we do this evacuation? There are different methods and we will choose what suits us in Gaza, and I believe that officials in the United States will understand what we are doing."

Alexander Langlois, an American researcher who focuses on Middle East affairs, believes that "increasing American pressure represents an important matter at the present time, although Israel tends to ignore it or co-opt American interests to do what it pleases." On the other hand, the researcher believes, in his interview with Al-Hurra website, that “the pressures may seem more like collusion in the form of political cover for Israel.” While it is increasing, and may prompt the latter to rethink operations, Langlois questions the effectiveness of this.

For weeks, the White House has been keen to announce that it does not dictate how Israel conducts its military operations, but President Biden and his senior staff have become more urgent as the humanitarian crisis unfolds, according to the New York Times. The pressure comes, according to the newspaper, at a time when US administration officials express their optimism about the possibility of continued entry of aid into Gaza, even when fighting resumes.

On Israel's part, Golan Barhoum, a lecturer at the Center for Public Diplomacy in Tel Aviv, explains that "its goal of eliminating Hamas will not be undone," without ruling out "new methods and tools that may differ from one place to another," meaning northern and southern Gaza. Barhoum believes that any military operation, ultimately, must reach the point of introducing ground forces on the ground, which may happen in the south of the Gaza Strip, if the war resumes after the “truce.” He says: "The Israeli army will need ground force, and it will also continue to operate as full-fledged sea, air, engineering and infantry forces."

The Israeli war in the northern Gaza Strip, which lasted for a month and a half, resulted in the deaths of thousands of civilians in Gaza, the majority of whom were women and children, and pushed nearly a million people to flee south. Over 45 percent of total homes across the Strip are too damaged to live in, according to United Nations estimates.

The Israeli army has not yet finished its operations in the northern Gaza Strip, and before the truce entered into force, it fought confrontations with Hamas militants on more than one front. Now, while he continues to threaten to expand the deployment of his forces in Gaza and the northern regions, and his officials say that they are about to move south, a Wall Street Journal report indicates that this stage will be “the most difficult,” due to several considerations, most notably the density of civilian presence there.

Dr. Amer Al-Sabaila, a university professor and geopolitical analyst, explains that “the humanitarian catastrophe that the United States now fears has been formed and its ground is now available.” He told the Al-Hurra website: “Today we are talking about food and medicine, and in a few days we will talk about a tragedy related to diseases, infrastructure, and sources of livelihood. Washington gave the green light to Israel, and it now fears a late-talking catastrophe.”

If the next phase of the war resumes, “it will cause less harm to civilians and more actual confrontation with Hamas,” and therefore “it will be operations with elite dimensions.” Al-Sabaila adds, "Israel's goal was to reach this point, at which it stopped for a truce." He added: "Israel has laid the foundations for the disaster because it wants to redraw the geography of Gaza and empty it demographically so that it no longer remains an incubator for the idea of militias or organizations as they were."

American researcher Langlois does not see how Israel can legally overcome the issue of population density in southern Gaza. “There is nowhere for these people and communities to go, and the small humanitarian safe zones in the south could logically be considered future targets given Israeli actions so far during the 2023 war,” he says.

Israel has not yet proven that it "does not launch disproportionate or indiscriminate strikes." If it commits to renewed fighting in the south, Langlois continues: “We will witness massive harm to civilians, as happened in the north,” and this may put pressure on Washington to publicly call for an end to the fighting.

Israel views its three goals in the Gaza Strip as interconnected, according to what former official Ayoub Kara says: eliminating Hamas, liberating the hostages, and “the next day” after the end of the war. Kara added to Al-Hurra website: “The war cannot end with Hamas remaining as a military force, and from this standpoint there is a difference in viewpoints,” considering that “the Americans may think from a different perspective and the Israelis as well. But there is an agreement that the war will continue.”

The former official believes that the existing line of communication and the discussions being exchanged between Israel and Washington are “linked to political, not military, thinking,” on the basis that goals on the ground “must be achieved.”

For his part, political researcher Golan Barhoum adds that Israel "can no longer return to what was before October 7. It will not accept any presence of Hamas, whether in the north or the south. If it does, it will have handed over the keys to the State of Israel."

“The next battle is a matter of time and it will be stronger,” and while Barhoum does not rule out that American demands will slow it down, he considers that “Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, is playing on two ropes, as he did in the 1990s regarding the Oslo Accords.”

The military and strategic expert, Major General Fayez Al-Duwairi - in his military analysis for Al Jazeera - said that the speed of the response of the resistance elements in the northern Gaza Strip to the movement of Israeli military vehicles - on the fifth day of the temporary truce - means their vigilance and monitoring of any hostile movements, and he pointed out that the occupation army’s announcement of the presence of a thousand casualties in its ranks confirms the ferocity of the fighting despite His skepticism about the announced numbers.

Al-Duwairi explained that violations during the ceasefire are possible, suggesting that the Israeli vehicles moved forward, which means that they may lead to something. He pointed out that the Al-Qassam Brigades - the military wing of the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) - dealt with this breach with caution and not escalation, to send a message to the occupation army saying, “If you return, we will return.” He pointed out that the redeployment of vehicles was in open areas with low urban density, because they become an easy target in densely populated areas.

As for the announcement of a thousand casualties among the ranks of Israeli army officers and soldiers since the start of the war on Gaza, the military expert believed that the IDF used to disclose 10% of the total losses between dead and wounded, while disclosing the rest in various circumstances, “which means in practice that there are 10 Thousands of casualties among its ranks.” He stated that according to his personal estimates, based on the Qassam operations, video clips broadcast, and information from Israeli journalists, he expected there to be 11,000 dead and wounded among the ranks of the Israeli army in the total operations, including 3,000 killed and wounded inside military vehicles.

He stated that these numbers reflect the nature of the fighting that took place in ground battles, and the Al-Qassam videos gave an impression of the intensity of the battles, pointing out that the ratio of wounded to dead in conventional wars is estimated at 3 to 1, but it increases when talking about fighting from zero distance.

Based on these numbers - Al-Duwairi says - there are 350 dead and a thousand wounded among the ranks of the occupation army, based on the new announcement of human losses, while confirming that these numbers will be doubled, but over time periods and in different incidents. He stressed that the morale of the Israeli army is deteriorating, ruling out a review of the military plans as far as selecting the appropriate elements to go into combat after conducting a medical and military evaluation and excluding those who have psychological trauma following the dismissal of a combat battalion commander and his deputy after their forces fled the Gaza battles.

The Israeli army admitted that a thousand of its soldiers and officers had been injured with various injuries since the beginning of the war on the Gaza Strip. The Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported from the army that 202 Israeli soldiers and officers were seriously wounded, 320 soldiers were moderately wounded, while 470 soldiers and officers were lightly wounded. The Israeli Broadcasting Corporation also quoted sources in the Israeli army as saying that 5 soldiers were killed in the Gaza Strip as a result of friendly fire, and that 3 others were killed as a result of an escape of bullets and an unsafe explosion.

A report prepared by the Israeli army indicated that dozens of soldiers were injured as a result of falling from military vehicles, or using military vehicles in an incorrect manner. Haaretz newspaper pressured the Israeli army to acknowledge the numbers of infections after news about them leaked from hospitals. The newspaper said that unlike previous wars, Israeli military censorship imposed strict restrictions to prevent the leakage of information about wounded soldiers.

The Palestinian Resistance warned the Israeli occupation against violating the truce agreement imposed by the Palestinians on the latter in light of the aggression on Gaza. With the Israeli occupation sending aircraft to violate Gaza's airspace, al-Qassam Brigades spokesperson Abu Obeida warned "Israel" against repeatedly breaching the truce.

"We will stay committed to the truce as long as the Israeli enemy refrains from violating it," the spokesperson for the military wing of the Hamas Resistance movement said. Despite the truce agreement imposed by the Resistance on the Israeli occupation, the Israeli occupation forces (IOF) had their tanks open fire toward al-Shati Refugee Camp in northern Gaza, as well as the Sheikh Radwan district in Gaza City as Israeli aircraft could be heard overhead. "Our forces responded to the ceasefire breach in northern Gaza," he said. "We call on the mediators to compel the occupiers to adhere to all the terms of the ceasefire."

Al Mayadeen's correspondent in Gaza confirmed that Israeli occupation forces violated the ceasefire by firing gunshots in northern Gaza, particularly in the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood. He revealed that the occupation forces fired artillery and smoke shells west of the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood during their withdrawal, aiming to cover their retreat from the central part of the neighborhood towards Rashid Street.

Al Mayadeen's correspondent in the region reported the Ministry of Health's confirmation that the occupation forces are still refusing to allow the necessary fuel into hospitals in the northern areas. The correspondent also reported that Israeli occupation forces fired smoke rounds at citizens' homes in al-Shati Refugee Camp north of Gaza.

The fifth day of the truce in the Gaza Strip witnessed a violation after an exchange of fire between the Israeli army and the Palestinian resistance in the northern Gaza Strip, as the Al-Qassam Brigades announced that the occupation had violated the truce agreement, which led to “field friction” and its fighters dealt with that. While the Israeli army claimed that its forces were exposed to gunfire and the detonation of explosive devices while they were in the agreed-upon armistice lines, which resulted in a number of soldiers being injured .

Regarding the reason why Israeli analysts consider the truce to be in the interest of Hamas and not in the interest of the Israeli occupation army, Zaher Abu Hamda, who follows Israeli affairs from Beirut, confirmed that this is considered a very clear Israeli recognition, because from a military perspective, when the army is trying to advance and storm and then there is a truce. The army's major push, especially by land, has stopped, and restlessness, some disagreements, and some conflicts are occurring in the army at the front, and this is what happened when the Israeli press reported it.

Abu Hamda continued: The resistance that is waging a street war must reorganize its ranks and organize its field defenses, pointing out that the field currently rules that the resistance has been able to establish some internal rules of engagement in some axes, and most importantly, it has inflicted on the enemy very large losses, especially in vehicles, equipment, and personnel. From this standpoint, what could happen? There are three scenarios. The first is the resumption of battles with greater ferocity and some of the battles moving to the southern axes, especially in Khan Yunis, and this is more likely.

Abu Hamda pointed out that the second scenario is for there to be a comprehensive ceasefire after the Israeli prisons are cleaned, after the prisoner deal, and for there to be a long-term truce between the resistance and the occupation. As for the third scenario, it is the most dangerous, which is to go to a prisoner exchange deal. Then he declares a unilateral ceasefire and does not provide guarantees regarding the re-arrest or assassination of the liberated prisoners, in addition to maintaining the drones and siege on Gaza, which is in order to carry out any assassination against the leaders of the resistance.

Since the beginning of the war, the IDF reported the fire brigades of the artillery corps have been operating and bringing to the battlefield the unique capabilities and fire support close to the fighters in the field. During the days of fighting, the forces fired more than 100,000 shells, more than 90,000 of them in the Gaza Strip to attack targets and escort the maneuvering forces.

The director of the government media office in Gaza, Salama Marouf, stated earlier that “the days of the truce revealed the extent of the great massacre committed by the Israeli occupation,” as the Israeli army forces dropped 40,000 tons of explosives on the Gaza Strip.

Bystanders

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres stated that the humanitarian truce in the Gaza Strip is not a solution, and the world organization continues to call for a ceasefire and the immediate release of all prisoners. Guterres' statements came in a joint press conference with the Chairman of the African Union Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamat. The UN Secretary-General said: “The humanitarian truce is a step in the right direction, a symbol of hope, but it does not solve the main problems we face.” He added: "We insist on a humanitarian ceasefire that leads to the immediate and unconditional release of all prisoners and detainees, and enabling the delivery of humanitarian aid to all residents of Gaza wherever they are."

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan informed United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres that Israel must be held accountable before international courts for what he described as war crimes committed in Gaza. The Turkish presidency said that Erdogan and Guterres discussed - in a phone call before a UN Security Council meeting on Gaza scheduled for Wednesday - “the international community’s expectations regarding illegal Israeli attacks,” the arrival of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip, and efforts to achieve lasting peace.

The Turkish presidency added - in a statement - that "President Erdogan said in the call that Israel continues to shamelessly crush international law, the laws of war, and international humanitarian law in full view of the international community, and must be held accountable for the crimes it committed before international law."

The Turkish Foreign Ministry said that Minister Hakan Fidan will attend the UN Security Council meeting in New York. The ministry added - in a statement - that Fidan is also meeting with his counterparts, within the framework of the so-called contact group for some Islamic countries that was formed by the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation this month to discuss the Gaza issue with Western powers, civil society organizations and others.

A former Turkish political advisor advised American and European leaders of the need to free themselves from the "excessive" influence of Israel , under which they are suffering, or risk an even greater catastrophe in the coming days. Taha Ozhan - who previously served as a senior advisor to the Turkish Prime Minister - pointed out that the Israeli occupation is not limited to Palestine , but also takes over the minds of American and European leaders, which was evident in the reactions of Western elites to the ongoing massacre committed by Tel Aviv in the Gaza Strip.

Ozhan explained in an article published by the British Middle East Eye news website that in addition to the settlements it establishes on Palestinian lands, Israel has gone further by establishing “political settlements” in the capitals of Western countries. Ozhan - who currently works as director of research at the Ankara Institute - pointed out the stark contradiction between those politicians' "passionate" speeches regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine , and their conciliatory and fanatical statements with Israel.

Egyptian political thinker, Mostafa Al-Feki, confirmed that US President Joe Biden is the worst president to rule the United States, indicating that he is a Zionist to the core. Egyptian political thinker: Joe Biden is the worst president to rule the United States and a Zionist to the coreA newspaper from Egyptian and Qatari officials: A long-term ceasefire in Gaza requires concessions that are difficult to accept.

Al-Fiqi said in a press conference in “Akhbar Al-Youm” newspaper: “The Israeli occupation is one of the worst occupations in the world and they have committed countless crimes amidst a terrible international silence. The Palestinian people have suffered a lot and paid a lot to regain their land, and the Palestinians have paid the largest blood bills in history.”

He explained that the events of October 7 had consequences such as ending Netanyahu's political career, and the world realized the seriousness of the Palestinian issue. Al-Fiqi added: “ The Israeli aggression on Gaza ended Netanyahu’s political future, and the entire world paid attention to the seriousness of the situation and the importance of reaching a solution to the Palestinian issue.” He concluded: "We must realize and know that the Americans were terrified of the outbreak of a regional war in the Middle East, and talk began to surface about a two-state solution, in which Palestine would have an independent, safe, demilitarized state."

Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said that Islamic countries do not have the ability to provide military support to protect the residents of Gaza, criticizing the countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation for their lack of consensus in confronting the Israeli entity. Mahathir Mohamad said : "The Islamic countries are very weak to ensure the protection of the people of Gaza . We have the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, but this organization does not seem capable of taking any action to confront the Israeli entity and its supporters, because the members of this organization lack consensus among themselves." Mahathir Mohamad stressed: "We need unity and the ability of Islamic countries to cooperate with each other and confront the enemy."

Axis of Resistance

Over the past decades, Western parties have long talked about a “new Middle East” according to their own specifications and that of their ally, Israel, and the “ Al-Aqsa Flood” battle has brought back talk about this project in Iranian circles, based on the ability of wars to change geography and political alignments. he statements of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on October 8th, and his pledge to “change the Middle East region” may be the bottom line Tin the Iranian reading, which was divided regarding the aftermath of the battle.

While Iranian circles agree that the Al-Aqsa Flood operations have already changed the rules of engagement in the occupied territories, a segment believes that the region is facing a “new Sykes-Picot,” while another spectrum holds that foreign projects are no longer able to change the map of the region, and that its people will chart the features of the new phase in favor of the Palestinian cause.

Meanwhile, Mohsen Jalilvand, professor of international relations at the University of Tehran, believes that the results of the Gaza battle will go beyond changing the features of the Middle East to leave a prominent mark on the world map, at various geostrategic, geopolitical and geoeconomic levels, similar to the period after September 11, 2001, as is expected to happen.

peaking to Al Jazeera Net, the Iranian academic believes that a ground battle over Gaza is necessary to restore Israel’s lost prestige of deterrence, and that its repercussions will be pivotal in delineating the features of the new Middle East during the next few weeks, adding that the upper hand will not go to the Israeli side in the new middle East.

Galilund added that the Israeli mentality sees the current developments as a “second Holocaust,” and is actively seeking to exploit them as an excuse to establish its presence in the region, just as it exploited about eight decades ago the first Holocaust to establish its entity on the Palestinian territories.

He pointed out that Israel enjoys absolute Western support at the current stage, which motivates it to commit massacres to neutralize the danger that threatens the existence of the occupying state, adding that prolonging the period of war will reflect negatively on the Israeli side in the features of the new Middle East, due to its lack of strategic depth and limited resources and wealth, no matter how hard the Western side tries. To bring it from abroad.

Galilund believed that the Israeli entity will not be able to eliminate the Hamas movement, considering the latter the first link to Iranian national security, stressing that the ceasefire at the current stage will mean Iran’s success in drawing up new rules of engagement and completely eliminating Netanyahu’s political project and Zionist extremism against the Palestinians.

The Iranian researcher explained that according to the results of the ground battle over Gaza, Tehran’s position in the new Middle East will vary between a party that has the upper hand, and which the Western side will take into account if the resistance is victorious, and another party against which Western pressures may intensify, and whose influence in the Gaza Strip may be undermined if the outcome is different.

The same speaker concluded that many Western and Eastern powers are competing for the Middle East, and want to register their presence and guarantee their interests in the region during the period after the Al-Aqsa flood, describing Russia as the biggest winner of the Gaza battle, explaining that the results of the current war will directly affect the ongoing corridor war. Between Western and Eastern powers, led by China and the United States.

He concluded by saying, "The Gaza war, like other wars, is a continuation of policy through other methods and tools, stressing that all scenarios are possible according to the extent of the American and Iranian sides' involvement in the war or their ability to keep diplomatic channels open to avoid a comprehensive war."

On the other hand, Ali Bekdali, professor of political science at Shahid Beheshti University, believes that the current battle will not bring about a significant change on the map of the Middle East, except for the changes that have continued for more than 7 decades in the occupied Palestinian territories. The Iranian researcher - in an interview with Al Jazeera Net - considered that the Battle of Al-Aqsa Flood is unparalleled in the history of the Palestinian issue, due to the extent of the Israeli violence used against the people of Gaza and the achievement that the Palestinian side has achieved in it so far, stressing its ability to restore alignments and the policy of axes in the region.

Bekdali believed that the brunt of the repercussions of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood would be more severe on the Israeli interior and the Likud Party than on the map of the region, explaining that there are persistent Israeli efforts to change the existing reality in the besieged Strip, but the American side is seeking to engineer Israeli violence to prevent things from getting out of hand.

The same researcher ruled out rolling the war ball beyond the borders of Gaza, explaining that despite the real rivalry between Tehran and Washington in the Middle East, the two sides do not want to expand the scope of the war, describing the ongoing conflict in the region as primarily an American-Russian conflict, and that it is in the latter’s interest.

For his part, Ali Saqqian, the Iranian diplomat and former Tehran ambassador to Armenia and Brazil, believes that the map of the Middle East has actually begun to change with the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, and that “the face of the region after the operation that broke the prestige of the occupation and the myth of its invincible army” will not be the same as before.

Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, the Iranian diplomat reads Western support for Israel in the context of "raising the collapsed morale of the occupying entity and its soldiers who tasted defeat and defeat after experiencing it for the first time during the aggression against southern Lebanon in 2006," as he put it.

Saqaian believed that the aftershocks of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood would haunt the occupation after it dropped the Israeli theory of deterrence and created a new scene in the Middle East by limiting the battle to the internal front of the Israeli enemy, achieving military gains and returning the Palestinian issue to the forefront of the international agenda. The diplomat concluded that the features of the East will change after the Al-Aqsa Flood operation changed the rules of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict that continued for more than seven decades, which will reflect positively on “ending the occupation” and changing the map of the region.

Hamas leader Osama Hamdan considered that the Israeli entity’s threat to resume aggression immediately after the temporary truce is an empty threat and that the occupation knows that what is coming is greater. Hamdan said during a press conference held in Beirut that the rise of martyred leaders from the Al-Qassam Brigades will not disrupt the resistance march that will escalate in all arenas of the country and abroad.

He added: The occupation's admission of the number of its soldiers killed and wounded in the ground operation does not reveal the truth that it is afraid to publish, and the occupation's losses will increase in the coming days, and the Israeli army's feet have not set foot on 80% of the land of Gaza. Hamdan continued: The Israeli threats are empty, and the occupation knows that what is coming is greater, and there are about a thousand wounded Israeli soldiers in Gaza, including 200 seriously injured.

He considered that the Qassam Brigades’ handover of Israeli detainees in various places in the Gaza Strip belies the occupation army’s claims of its control over part of the land of Gaza, and that the completion of the truce agreement in 4 days is a national achievement par excellence, as it included prisoners from all over the country’s geography. Leader Osama Hamdan said : Our position will remain steadfast in rejecting all plans aimed at finding solutions or imposing suspicious agendas.

Hamdan explained that the occupation dropped more than 40,000 tons of explosives on Gaza during 50 days of the aggression, stressing that the goal of the occupation to make Gaza an uninhabitable land will not be achieved. He added: We call on the leaders of our Arab and Islamic nation to translate the decisions of the Riyadh summit into a practical reality that will stop the aggression. We call for increasing the number of trucks entering the Gaza Strip, and for sending more medical hospitals to the Gaza Strip and receiving the wounded abroad, and we call on the countries of the world to send civil defense teams to raise The rubble and the recovery of the bodies of the martyrs.

Hamdan denounced what was issued by Human Rights Watch regarding the Israeli aggression against hospitals in the Gaza Strip, especially Baptist hospitals, pointing out that the organization’s report uses speculative language, calling for its withdrawal and the formation of an international investigation committee into what happened in Gaza.

He said: The occupation has been trying to take revenge on the prisoners since October 7 through violations and crimes. Unfortunately, we do not hear a voice from human rights institutions, and the deception practiced by politicians in the United States will deepen the state of instability in the world.

Hamdan called on US President Joe Biden to apologize to the Palestinian people and the American people who rose up against the positions of the Biden administration, indicating that his apology would be meaningless if it was not accompanied by a decisive decision that would force the Israeli entity to stop its aggression against Gaza .

He continued: On the International Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian People tomorrow, we call for the continuation of movements rejecting the war of genocide against our people. We also call on the international media to visit Gaza to see the extent of the occupation’s crime. Leader Osama Hamdan confirmed that the occupation only understands the language of force, and that had it not been for the presence of prisoners held by the resistance, Palestinian prisoners would not have been released.

Allied for Democracy

The Minister of Energy and a member of Israel's Security Political Council, Yisrael Katz, warned that Israel could lose the war with Hamas and the Palestinian factions in the Gaza Strip. Yisrael Katz said: “Even with everything we have done, if the head of the Hamas movement in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, or someone else stands in Khan Yunis waving the ‘sign of victory’ with his fingers, this means that we will have lost the war with everything that loss entails.” Of meaning.” Katz also referred to tensions on the northern border, saying: "We made an informed decision to finish the south first, but this issue will not end before the safety and security of the people of the north is guaranteed."

Senior administration officials discussed ongoing efforts to secure humanitarian aid and prevent another mass displacement of civilians in southern Gaza. President Biden has apparently told Israeli government officials that when the IDF ground campaign moves into the southern part of Gaza, maximum efforts must be made not to produce further significant displacement of civilians. In a briefing by senior administration officials with reporters, the U.S. leader has repeatedly said the IDF should not "replicate” what took place in northern Gaza during the first part of the ground incursion, during which hundreds of thousands of civilians were moved to a humanitarian zone in southern Gaza. Citing the limited capacities of the humanitarian relief network, Biden has urged Netanyahu and Israeli officials that the next phase of the operation must be “carefully thought through.”

The Biden administration had been working to advance its humanitarian response in Gaza, with senior officials detailing the three key areas of focus. They defined their response on three lines, the first of which is expanding humanitarian access. The second is pushing for the restoration of essential services, key among them is water and sanitation. Third is securing deconfliction measures for civilian movement inside Gaza and the civilian populated areas.

The White House wants to see 300 to 400 aid trucks entering Gaza on a daily basis, and said inspection procedures would need to be “increased and enhanced” to let that volume of aid through. They said that the hope is for phase two of the humanitarian program to be implemented following the ceasefire’s expiration.

Butcher's Bill / Oasis of Martyrs

Palestinian armed group Hamas launched thousands of missiles at Israel and deployed its militants to infiltrate Jewish settlements near the country’s border with Gaza on 07 October 2023. The 1,200 Israelis killed on the first day would be the equivalent of 36,000 Americans killed in an attack, as a proportion to Israel’s population of 9.3 million people (compared to 332 million in the USA). Israeli President Isaac Herzog stated: “Not since the Holocaust have so many Jews been killed in one day". PM Netanyahu stated "On October 7th, Hamas murdered 1,400 Israelis. Maybe more. This is in a country of fewer than 10 million people. This would be equivalent to over 50,000 Americans murdered in a single day. That’s twenty 9/11s. That is why October 7th is another day that will live in infamy."

It is the second largest loss inflicted on the Israeli forces after the 1973 war, as the Palestinian resistance killed more than 1,200, wounded more than 5,132 others, and captured more than 250, most of them military personnel, some of whom were high-ranking officers in the army.

About 15,000 Palestinians, including about 6,150 children, have been killed in Israeli airstrikes on Gaza since October 7, the Gaza Press Office said. The ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants. The Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Observatory reports that it had "counted up to this moment about 17,500 dead Palestinians". The Hamas-run government said more than 4,000 women were among the dead, with more than 33,000 more people wounded. The Palestinian Government Media Office in Gaza said the number of missing people had risen to more than 7,000 [nearly double the 3,750 previously reported], including 1,800 children still under the rubble, including 4,700 children and women. The Palestinian Ministry of Health announced that the number of wounded as 36,000 [previously announced as about 32,000 wounded], 75 percent of them children and women.

Israeli forces killed eight Palestinians, including a child, in the occupied West Bank, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, taking the total number of Palestinians killed in the West Bank to 239 since October 7. Israeli forces shot dead five Palestinians in the city of Jenin late on Saturday and early Sunday, and killed three others elsewhere in the West Bank, the ministry said on Sunday. Six other Palestinians were injured in the Israeli raid in Jenin.

Israel revised down the death toll from the October Hamas attacks in southern Israel from 1,400 to 1,200. IDF had said previously it was holding 1,500 bodies of terrorists, a total that now would increas to about 1,700.

The number of Israeli soldiers that the IDF admitted were killed in ground battles with the Palestinian resistance reached 75, while the death toll for the Israel forces had risen to 395 soldiers since the beginning of Operation al-Aqsa Flood. At least 7,771 Israelis were injured. The Israel Defense Forces on 28 November 2023 that three of its soldiers formerly listed as missing were dead. SSgt. Tomer Yaakov Ahimas, 20, Sgt. Kiril Brodski, 19, and Sgt. Shaked Dahan, 19, were killed by Hamas terrorists in the October 7 massacre. The jihadists took their bodies into Gaza, where they are still being held, the military said.

The Hebrew newspaper Haaretz revealed that the number of soldiers who were injured since the start of the aggression reached about a thousand soldiers, noting that 202 soldiers were seriously injured. The army rarely referred to casualties when talking about the deaths of soldiers during battles. According to the same newspaper, this policy differs from what was prevalent in previous wars and military campaigns, during which the army also published the number of its wounded, in addition to publishing other details. The IDF previously announced that more than 260 soldiers had been injured since the start of the ground operation in the Gaza Strip, including 100 in serious condition.

Israeli army (IDF) reported the total number of casualties since October 7th to 392 and the number of troop deaths there to 72 since the ground war began.

Lebanon’s Health Ministry released its first official casualty numbers in fighting, saying 77 people were killed and 251 wounded since the start of the war on Gaza.

Hostages

Around 160 hostages remain in captivity. At least 76, and possibly more than 80, hostages had been released by Hamas over four days of a cease-fire. During the truce, Hamas fighters released 50 Israeli women and children. In return, Israel released 150 security detainees from its prisons, all of them women and minors. Hamas also separately released 19 foreign hostages, most of them Thai farm workers, under separate agreements parallel to the truce agreement.

Thirty children held by Gazan terrorists have been released as part of a four-day ceasefire deal with Hamas that began Friday, but 10 still remain in the Strip. The terror group has said it planned to release 20 more hostages as part of a two-day extension to the deal. U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said the Biden administration believes eight or nine more Americans are still being held but the U.S. does not have "solid information on each and every one of them." Perhaps 100 are Israeli civilians. Some of the rest are soldiers, seized when Hamas raided military bases in Israel. They may end up being held the longest. The Israeli military has not specified how many soldiers were captured, nor their ranks.

The Israeli Broadcasting Corporation reported that negotiations in the State of Qatar seek to reach a new armistice agreement and the release of all Israeli prisoners, including soldiers, in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners. According to the Israeli Broadcasting Corporation, “The new agreement being discussed in Qatar includes the release of all Israeli prisoners in the Gaza Strip, including soldiers, and Israel’s release of its Palestinian security prisoners.” It added: "Israel may agree to extend the ceasefire and exchange of prisoners for another day or two, while Washington is pressing to reach a truce that exceeds 10 days."

An Israeli political source said, "If there is a proposal to extend the ceasefire for more than 10 days, we will study it." Yedioth Ahronoth quoted the source as saying: “If we are able to extract the largest possible number of kidnappers within 10 days, this is wonderful.. No one will give up on the goals of the war.”

He added: “At the present time, there is no talk about extending the ceasefire beyond the specified 10 days. If there is a concrete proposal, it will be presented to the Council of Ministers and the government to discuss it, but at the present time there is no such thing... if we see "There is an important proposal, we will study it. We will not allow a terrorist organization to tarnish our reputation."

Egyptian media reported that the head of the Egyptian General Intelligence Service, Major General Abbas Kamel, is participating in discussions in Qatar, with American, Israeli and Qatari officials, regarding the continuation of the humanitarian truce in the Gaza Strip. The Cairo News Channel, citing “high-level” Egyptian sources, said that the head of General Intelligence “is participating in discussions in Qatar regarding the continuation of the truce with Qatari, American and Israeli officials.”

The head of Egyptian intelligence arrives in Doha coinciding with the visit of Mossad chief David Barnea and CIA director William Burns. An informed source told the channel that “Egyptian, Qatari, American and Israeli officials are meeting in Doha to build on the progress achieved in extending the truce in Gaza.”

The American newspaper "Washington Post" reported that the director of the CIA, William Burns, arrived in Qatar to hold secret meetings with the head of Israeli intelligence and the Qatari prime minister to reach an expanded agreement between Israel and the Islamic Resistance Movement. The newspaper said, quoting informed sources, that “William Burns arrived in Qatar on Tuesday, to hold secret meetings with the head of Israeli intelligence and the Qatari prime minister with the aim of mediating an expanded deal between Israel and Hamas.”

The Hebrew newspaper "Jerusalem Post" revealed that Hamas expressed its readiness to discuss the conditions for the release of the Zionist soldiers it had captured since October 7. It said on its website that the Hamas movement expressed its readiness to discuss the release of Israeli soldiers , pointing out that this issue was not included in the ceasefire discussions , as the conditions for the release of soldiers will differ from the previous conditions associated with the release of civilian detainees. According to the newspaper, in terms of international law, soldiers held by Hamas are considered prisoners of war, while civilians are considered hostages.

According to some estimates, Hamas was initially holding nearly 210 of the 240 hostages, while Palestinian Islamic Jihad was holding the remaining 30. About 40 Israelis remained missing. More than 40 hostages taken from Israel into Gaza on October 7th are not currently in the custody of Hamas, the group responsible for the attack, according to a CNN report based on a diplomatic source briefed on the negotiations, CNN's prior reports had indicated that an estimated 40 to 50 hostages were held by Palestinian Islamic Jihad or other unidentified groups or individuals.

Abu Ubaida, the spokesperson for the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, said on Hamas’ telegram account that 23 bodies of the 60 missing Israel hostages were trapped under the rubble. “It seems that we will never be able to reach them due to the continued brutal aggression of the occupation against Gaza,” he said.

The main points known about the hostage deal so far:

• there will be a ceasefire from both sides in the Gaza Strip,
• There is no ceasefire on the northern front with Lebanon, and the truce will be limited to the southern front with Gaza. But the ceasefire deal would also apply as a truce on the northern border with Lebanon, according to a Lebanese report in Nidaa al-Watan. "Hezbollah will adhere to the ceasefire on the condition that Israel does too," the first report announced, following a meeting between the leaders of the Lebanese and Palestinian organizations. An official source from Hezbollah later told Al-Jazeera that the group will respect the ceasefire also in Lebanon, reiterating the condition that Israel does too, adding that the Lebanese group was not consulted on the deal.
• there will be a halt to the movement of Israeli military vehicles penetrating into the Gaza Strip,
• During the days of the truce, the Israeli forces remain as they are and in their positions, provided that Hamas and the rest of the resistance forces adhere to a complete ceasefire.
• Israeli military overflights in the southern Gaza Strip will be halted for four consecutive days. Israeli military overflights in the northern Gaza Strip will be limited to six hours daily, in order to allow Hamas to locate the other hostages who are being held by Hamas terrorists and Islamic Jihad.
• Israel agreed to refrain from targeting or arresting any individuals throughout the truce's timeframe.
• freedom of movement will be ensured for all Palestinians along Salah al-Din Street, which connects the districts of the Gaza Strip.
• "The movement of residents from the south of the Gaza Strip to the north will not be allowed in any way, but only from the north to the south. Uncoordinated movement of trucks from the south to the north of the Gaza Strip will also not be allowed" the Israeli army spokesman, Avichay Adraee, said via “ X ”.
• The prisoners in Israeli custody will be handed over to the Red Cross, which will transport them to the Rafah area, and there, under the auspices of Egyptian, Qatari and American mediators, they will be transferred to the Israeli side.
• Upon their receipt by the Isreeli army, the occupation authorities begin releasing Palestinian female prisoners and children according to the agreed upon number
• 10 hostages will be released every day
• Minimum of 53 hostages will be released, mostly minors (under 19) and their mothers, [the 50 prisoners, who appear to be 30 children, eight mothers, and 12 elderly women]. Hamas has 80 captive children, mothers, and elderly women, but at least in the first stage, if Hamas does not find more, at least seven children and five mothers will remain in captivity. The number of foreign workers is 41 prisoners, meaning that Hamas has 195 Israelis, more than 100 of whom will remain in Gaza even after this deal.
• Israel will release approximately 150 Palestinian prisoners, women and minors (under 19), held in its prisons, and who do not have Jewish blood on their hands.
• potential of the total number released reaching 80 prisoners, out of about 300 minors (under 19), and 33 female prisoners, detained in its prisons. The mechanism of the process is for Hamas to send through mediators a list of Israeli prisoners who will be released the next day, and the Israeli government approves it, so that the implementation process begins the next day. The number of those released will be increased in later stages of implementing the agreement.
• hostages to be released do not include foreigners who do not have Israeli citizenship or foreign workers who were around the Gaza Strip.
• it is also possible that foreigners such as Thai citizens will be released, but this has nothing to do with the truce agreement.
• The deal does not include Israeli soldiers.
• on the fourth day of the truce, new names will be given to the Israeli detainees. Hamas will announce its desire to release them in exchange for Israel releasing Palestinian prisoners, according to the agreed-upon equation, which is one Israeli for 3 Palestinians.
• Israel would extend the pause in fighting for one further day for each additional 10 captives released.
• Hamas expressed its approval for the Red Cross to visit the remaining kidnapped persons in Gaza, and that it had committed to searching for the remaining kidnapped persons not in its custody, with the aim of seeking their release at later stages. But Hamas refused to allow the workers of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) to visit the hostages and evaluate their health condition. Hamas believes that "any information related to the hostages must come at a price paid by Israel."
• The agreement would also include the entry into the Gaza Strip, including in the north, of 4 trucks of fuel daily and two trucks of gas, in addition to at least 200 to 300 trucks of food, medicine and humanitarian aid
• HAMAS said the entry of aid into the Gaza Strip will continue beyond the days of the agreement, and that the aid that will enter the Strip includes basic materials and clothing.