The main points of Hamas's second stage

The main points of Hamas's third stage

Israel has come a long way on the subject of the return of the displaced to the northern Gaza Strip, to the point that the proposal submitted to Hamas presents it with a real dilemma, when the mediators, led by Egypt, exert tremendous pressure on it behind the scenes.

The mediators presented a new proposal in the last round of negotiations in Cairo for a ceasefire in three stages. The proposal includes the return of unarmed displaced civilians to the northern Gaza Strip without specifying their numbers, and Israel accepting the opening of Al-Rashid and Salah Al-Din Streets and stationing its forces 500 meters away from them. The proposal also includes the introduction of 500 aid trucks daily into the Gaza Strip, including the north.

The proposal includes Israel releasing 900 Palestinian prisoners, including 100 with life sentences, in the first phase, while the second phase includes the release of all Israeli prisoners and the completion of negotiations to return to sustainable calm. The proposal did not include the number of Palestinian prisoners released in the second phase or Israel's withdrawal.

Israel has offered to return 60,000 displaced Palestinians, excluding men between the ages of 18 and 50. The Arab World News Agency quoted Arab sources as saying that the return of Gaza’s displaced people may begin 10 days to two weeks after the implementation of the six-week ceasefire agreement, if it is finally agreed upon. Returnees must pass through Israeli military checkpoints to prevent Hamas fighters from infiltrating the north again, according to Israeli and Egyptian officials.

According to the sources, Hamas rejects these conditions and insists on removing checkpoints and preserving the reunification of families returning to the north, and has refused to deport adult men. A leading source in the Hamas movement said that the Israeli position still creates obstacles to reaching an agreement. The leading source stated in statements to the Qatari Al Jazeera channel that the Israeli response that we received does not include a permanent ceasefire or withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. He pointed out that the return of the displaced, according to the Israeli response, is unsafe and takes place through crossings under the bayonets of the occupation.

CNN reported that CIA Director William Burns presented a new proposal in an attempt to overcome differences in the ongoing negotiations to reach a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. According to the Arab World News Agency. The network quoted an informed source as saying that the new American proposal was presented in Cairo during talks that took place yesterday, noting that it includes pushing Israel to release a larger number of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the release of 40 Israeli detainees during the first phase of the three-stage ceasefire agreement.

Before this round of talks, media reports said that negotiators discussed the release of about 700 Palestinian prisoners, including many of them sentenced to life imprisonment. The source added that the United States also wants to allow residents of northern Gaza who fled to the south to return to their homes in the north without restrictions. Israel has so far rejected Hamas's demands for the return of residents to the north and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from central Gaza. A diplomat familiar with the talks told CNN that Israel insists on searching Palestinians heading north.

The first source stated that all parties agreed to study the new American proposal, adding that it will be transferred to the Hamas leadership in Gaza, noting that it is expected that obtaining a response will take several days due to the difficulty of communicating with the movement’s leaders.

For his part, Palestinian media reported that a Hamas leader said that the movement rejected a new proposal in the negotiations and considered it a “rejected Israeli offer.” The leader said that the new proposal does not address the movement’s demands for comprehensive Israeli withdrawal, a ceasefire, and the unrestricted return of the displaced, and that the new proposal does not talk about a ceasefire, but rather about sustainable calm, which allows military attacks at a specific pace.

A leading source in the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) added that the Israeli response in the Cairo negotiations required the return of the displaced to shelter camps set up by international bodies and not to their areas and homes, as the movement had stipulated. He explained that the return of the displaced, according to the Israeli response, is unsafe and takes place through crossings under the bayonets of the occupation, while the movement demanded their unconditional return. He stressed that the Israeli response received by the movement does not include a permanent ceasefire or withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.

Anatolia Agency quoted Hamas leader Mahmoud Mardawi as saying that the movement wants a clear agreement that does not lead to a new battle, and includes a comprehensive ceasefire, a complete withdrawal of the occupation from the Gaza Strip, the return of the displaced without conditions, and reconstruction without restrictions, and for this process to be completed smoothly. In addition to a prisoner exchange.

Commenting on ceasefire talks, the White House said it is “up to Hamas to come through” on a potential deal. “At the end of the weekend, a proposal was submitted to Hamas, and now it’s going to be up to Hamas to come through,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters.

Palestine’s application for UN membership is moving forward. The Security Council president for this month, the ambassador from Malta, said that behind closed doors, the Security Council has decided on a couple of key things, and these are important. Number one is that they will refer this case, or Palestine’s application, to what’s called the membership committee of the Security Council. That membership committee is made up of the current 15 members, They expect to deal with this entire process in the Security Council in the month of April.

Operational Update

Operational Update - Gaza

Half a year since the October 7 attack and the Takuma administration is proud of the fact that about 40,000 evacuees from the south have returned to their homes. However, about 20,000 evacuees, many of them residents of the kibbutzim of the Gaza Strip, are still living in host communities and hotels. According to the estimates of the security forces, about 70% of the residents of the settlements at a distance of up to 7 km from the border of the Gaza Strip have already returned to their homes.

Following intelligence information and operational identifications compiled by the Southern Command, Air Force fighter jets completed a number of strikes in recent days that led to the destruction of three launch sites used by the terrorist organization Hamas. The launch positions were located in the humanitarian area west of Khan Yunis and during the war launches were made from them towards the south of the country. Before the attack, the IDF ensured the evacuation and exit of the citizens of the area and accurately attacked the launchers, without harming those not involved. This is another clear example of the cynical and systematic exploitation that the terrorist organization Hamas makes of humanitarian facilities and spaces for terrorist needs, while using the civilian population as a human shield.

In addition, last night (Sunday) three launches were detected that crossed from the Khan Yunis area towards the surrounding area and fell in an open area. A short time later, Air Force aircraft attacked and destroyed the position from which the launch was carried out along with other terrorist infrastructures that were near the position.

the Israeli army launched air and artillery bombardment on the central and southern Gaza Strip. An Israeli bombing that targeted homes east of the city of Deir al-Balah and the Maghazi camp in the central Gaza Strip. Israeli raids also targeted areas in the central Gaza Strip, including the vicinity of the Nuseirat camp, which is also located in the center of the Gaza Strip.

Israeli warplanes launched a number of raids on various areas of Rafah, and Al Jazeera’s correspondent reported that two people were injured in one of the Israeli raids on “Khirbet Al-Adas.” This comes amid continuing Israeli threats to launch a military operation in the city, which is home to about 1.5 million people. Displaced. Also in the south of the Gaza Strip, an Al Jazeera correspondent reported that there were casualties in an Israeli artillery shelling east of the town of Al-Qarara, north of Khan Yunis.

Netanyahu declared “there is a date” for Israel’s assault on the southern Gaza city, where more than one million displaced Palestinians are sheltering. Netanyahu had repeatedly said Israel must send ground forces into Rafah, describing it as Hamas’s last stronghold in Gaza. In a video statement, Netanyahu said the Rafah operation is essential for victory. “It will happen. There is a date,” he said without elaborating.

The US has not been briefed on a date for Israel’s invasion of Rafah, US Department of State spokesperson Matthew Miller says, after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that a date has been set. Miller told reporters at a regular news briefing that Washington does not want to see a full-scale invasion of Rafah, Gaza’s last refuge for displaced Palestinians, in any event. “We have made clear to Israel that we think a full-scale military invasion of Rafah would have an enormously harmful effect on those civilians and that it would ultimately hurt Israel security,” Miller said.

International newspapers and websites raised, in analyzes and reports, questions about the Israeli army’s decision to withdraw its forces from the southern Gaza Strip , and some of them focused on the situation in Gaza and what the next six months portend, stressing the need for the West to intensify its pressure on Israel to stop the war now.

According to the New York Times, the Israeli army's decision to withdraw its forces from southern Gaza raises questions about its upcoming war plans, and it reported that fighters from the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) have returned to areas that Israel previously claimed to have tight control. The newspaper said that the decision to withdraw baffled even senior officials in the White House, such as John Kirby, spokesman for the National Security Council.

In an analysis, Haaretz pointed to the possibilities that may be behind the decision to withdraw from southern Gaza, including what is linked to an imminent deal with Hamas, adding that there are other explanations, including: “The withdrawal paves the way for a major operation in Rafah, and there is also a possibility that the withdrawal aims only To prolong the war, to serve Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s personal accounts.”

As for the Jerusalem Post, it described the withdrawal from southern Gaza as amazing, and in turn asked: “Is it a response to American pressure or a shift regarding the hostages?” The newspaper said, "Israel will now need either a new strategy or to make greater concessions to Hamas to recover more hostages."

On the other hand, an editorial in the British Independent warned that “the situation in Gaza warns that the next six months will be as bleak for the Palestinians as the previous months were,” which, according to the newspaper, requires the West to intensify its pressure on the Israeli Prime Minister to force him to stop the war now. The newspaper added: "The beginning must be by reducing arms sales to Israel." She believed that opportunities for peace were still possible despite the region's history being full of wars.

The French website Mediapart highlighted the difficulties faced by human rights organizations in documenting Israeli war crimes in Gaza, and since the Strip is closed to the world, documentation is done remotely.

As for the Palestinian activists on the ground, they are astonished by the scale of the destruction and the magnitude of the human losses caused by the Israeli army, according to the site, which quotes one of them as saying that they have lost all ability to work and document, unlike previous wars on Gaza.

Experts confirmed that Israel's withdrawal of most of its military forces from the Gaza Strip as the war entered its seventh month had great implications, although at the same time they confirmed that the occupation army would continue limited incursions, which they described as lightning and surgical. In this context, political and strategic researcher Saeed Ziad said that what happened can be described as a turning point after the occupation army was exhausted and forced 6 military divisions completely inside Gaza before reducing them successively.

Saeed explained - during his talk to the program "Gaza... What's next?" - that a state of despair crept into the hearts of the commanders of divisions and brigades in the occupation army, as the Khan Yunis operation did not lead to any real or tactical victory, and did not eliminate a large number of resistance fighters or tunnels, citing the last two operations as evidence. In the Al-Amal and Al-Zana neighborhoods, the continued firing of rockets carries a very precise message. He pointed out that the Israeli army fears that it will be dragged into a battle of attrition in Khan Yunis, expecting that it will not repeat the large-scale attack on the city because of its fear of getting involved in a long war of attrition.

In turn, the military and strategic expert, retired Brigadier General Elias Hanna, confirms that in every war there is a peak point at which any military operation reaches a bad outcome, indicating that the continuous reduction of the occupation forces inside Gaza does not lead to strategic success, especially in light of the conflict between the military and political sides in Israel. He stressed that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in a severe dilemma after he repeatedly stressed that the recovery of detained prisoners will only be achieved through military pressure.

The military expert did not ignore other reasons, such as the desire to rest the forces, attention to the West Bank , and preparations for the northern front with Lebanon, in addition to the developments in Yemen and the Red Sea. Hanna said that the withdrawal of the 98th Division without achieving its military objectives can be described as a major matter, as “success cannot be measured in war with armed factions as happens with regular armies,” and he cited the occupation’s statements as evidence that he was surprised by the capabilities of the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) and its network of tunnels. He pointed out that the occupation's withdrawal means that the resistance has the ability to move and in a larger area, in addition to the ability to reorganize, plan and conduct reconnaissance, and it can also carry out operations even inside the Gaza envelope .

For his part, the writer specializing in Israeli affairs, Ihab Jabareen, highlighted the conflict within Israel in marketing the withdrawal from Khan Yunis, pointing out that there are several camps managing this war, and each of them explains the withdrawal according to its theory and aspirations. Jabareen invoked the theory of price and return. It has become clear that the presence of the occupation in Gaza does not give the desired return for the price it pays, recalling numbers announced by Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant about killing large numbers of Hamas fighters, then his army confessing to smaller numbers two months later, which indicates the extent of the discrepancy in numbers and data.

He pointed out that the occupation army has been fighting - since October 7 - to rebuild the social contract and reputation that was destroyed in the region, stressing that it is fighting for revenge and does not have a strategy, “therefore there is an urgent need to go out and reorganize its structure and strategy within the field.” He pointed out that before October 7, there were serious concerns in the Israeli street regarding how Tel Aviv would manage any war in light of the sharp political division and its impact on the army. According to Jabareen, the deep state in Israel, which is managing the battle for revenge, believes that the overthrow of Hamas will not be completed except by overthrowing Netanyahu, and then returning to complete the features of the war in the form of victory, according to him.

Regarding the future field scene, Hanna believes that the occupation will divide the sector into 3 sections to prevent geographical contiguity and the return of the displaced. He pointed out that the army will withdraw to the buffer zone and will carry out special and lightning operations, as happened in the Al-Zaytoun neighborhood, east of Gaza, and the Al-Shifa complex , west of the city, but he stressed that the resistance now has a large area to carry out special operations. In turn, researcher Saeed Ziad believes that the occupation's field surgical operations will continue, regardless of their form, "but the low level of fighting will not achieve any of the goals of the war. What Israel did not achieve at the height of its attack and brutality, it will not achieve at this pace." It is expected that the resistance will quickly and forcefully restore its ranks and forces to fight harsher battles, as well as in terms of ambushes, offensive operations, and missile ranges up to Tel Aviv, according to Ziad.

The military and strategic expert, Colonel Hatem Karim Al-Falahi, said that the Israeli occupation operation in the city of Khan Yunis, south of the Gaza Strip , was based on wrong Israeli estimates after it took 4 months instead of 2 months. Al-Falahi explained - during Al Jazeera's military analysis segment - that it is not possible to give a real time period in the issue of achieving goals in built-up areas, especially since the means that were developed are inconsistent and unable to achieve the goals of the military ground operation.

He pointed out that fighting in open areas is different from fighting inside cities, just as fighting with a regular army is different from fighting with armed groups, which includes private fights and guerrilla warfare. He stressed that the occupation army faced great complications during its operation in Khan Yunis, and it had a problem in staying inside the cities, and its survival necessitated military failure, “therefore it failed to achieve its goals of eliminating the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) and recovering the detained prisoners.”

Al-Falahi acknowledged that the Israeli ground operation weakened the capabilities of the resistance factions, but stressed that they were not eliminated, citing their presence in all areas of the Strip in the north, center and south, and that resistance operations did not cease. He highlighted some of the contradictions in the Israeli statements, as they say that the army will return in the event of threats, and he asks here: “Why was the withdrawal made after the recent Zinna and Hay al-Amal operations in Khan Yunis?!”

He touched on a number of pressures facing Israel : In addition to Washington's pressure, Tel Aviv is under the threat of the Gaza and West Bank fronts , and it may open the Lebanon front. He added, "There are Iranian threats to respond to Israel after the bombing of Tehran's consulate in Syria," in addition to the sharp political division within Israel and its impact on Benjamin Netanyahu's government.

Al-Falahi reiterated his assertion that the reasons for the occupation’s withdrawal from Khan Yunis were due to its desire to turn it into a potential shelter area in light of the talk about the Battle of Rafah , as well as the desire to obtain rest and restore the combat readiness of the Israeli forces. He explained that moving to the third phase of the war means less intense and intense operations than the first and second phases, especially since there are no duties for the military sectors that were exhausted under the strikes of the resistance fighters.

Al-Falahi, suggested that the decision to withdraw the occupation army from Khan Yunis, south of the Gaza Strip, was related to the possible military attack on Rafah , south of the Gaza Strip, but he spoke of other calculations related to the ongoing negotiations and international pressure to stop the war. He said that the sudden withdrawal of the Israeli brigades from Khan Yunis raises many question marks about the future plan of the occupation, and also confirms the existence of problems among the senior military leadership in Israel regarding the issue of dealing with the sectors in the Gaza Strip.

Colonel Karim Al-Falahi, in his speech during the military analysis pause on Al-Jazeera channel regarding the course of the war in Gaza, points out that the military sectors that were withdrawn from Khan Yunis have been participating in the battle for a long time, and have suffered a lot of damage, and therefore the withdrawal process may be to restore readiness. Combat and preparations for the battle of Rafah, suggesting that Khan Yunis will be a shelter area for the residents of Rafah. He added that the very heavy Israeli bombing of the western and eastern areas of the city of Rafah suggests that it is "an operation to prepare for a future theater of operations."

The Israeli newspaper Haaretz published an analysis in which it said that the Israeli army withdrew its forces from Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip on Saturday night without achieving its basic goals, and confirmed that the victory sought by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not as close as he describes. The newspaper added that Israeli soldiers are leaving the southern part of Gaza, and Israel is not much closer to achieving the goals of the war, and must now face more objections from the West. According to the newspaper, the Israeli army no longer has any ground forces in the southern Gaza Strip. One of the brigade's combat teams is still in the corridor that separates northern Gaza from southern Gaza. There are a small number of other brigades stationed outside Gaza and will enter as needed.

The Israeli army and Netanyahu are now highlighting the achievements of the Khan Yunis campaign, represented - as they claim - by the destruction of a large part of the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the military arm of the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ), in that region, which resulted in the killing of thousands of Hamas members and the attack on leadership positions. . This coincides with the publication of statistics for the first six months of the war. (The army believes it killed about 12,000 militants, which seems to be an exaggeration.)

The newspaper points out that, so far, the two main goals of the Khan Yunis operation have not been achieved. Two senior Hamas officials in Gaza, Yahya Al-Sanwar and Muhammad Al-Deif , remain at large. There has also been no breakthrough in the recovery of Israelis detained in Gaza, except for the rescue of two of them in Rafah two months ago. The newspaper says that the Israeli army and Shin Bet found tunnels in which Sinwar hid during the war. In those tunnels, they found Hamas's leadership centers, Sinwar's personal documents, and equipment. Since then, it appears that he has been moving between other hideouts in his deep underground complex in Khan Yunis, according to the newspaper.

The newspaper believes that it is still possible to make a breakthrough in rescuing detainees in Gaza, but the public must be told the truth, which is that Hamas’ military and governmental capabilities are gradually deteriorating, but the movement is not on the verge of defeat. “We are not one step away from victory,” Netanyahu claimed again last Sunday without any basis in reality, much to the dismay of officers and soldiers who, regardless of their political views, can detect deception, according to the newspaper.

Where to go from here? There are 3 possible scenarios: First, further escalation with Iran and Hezbollah due to Tehran’s response to the assassination of leaders and advisors in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Second, unexpected progress in negotiations with Hamas regarding the hostage deal, and third, a new military operation in Rafah (or, alternatively, in some refugee camps in central Gaza).

In addition to complete victory, Netanyahu repeatedly promised to invade Rafah. Initial preparations for this have already been made, but it will require mobilizing forces in southern Gaza again and, above all, completing a plan to evacuate the huge number of civilians, some 1.4 million people, now crowded into the city.

During the last half of the year, Israeli forces forcibly evacuated most of the residents of northern Gaza, and then Khan Yunis to the south. Its withdrawal from Khan Yunis will enable civilians to move north again to that city. However, Israel does not appear to be taking the change in Western attitudes towards a possible invasion of Rafah seriously. The Biden administration no longer hesitates to publicly express its opposition.

During the past two weeks, senior Israeli and American officials spoke about the Israeli army's plans regarding Rafah. Possible understandings were discussed in a conversation with Defense Minister Yoav Galant. Haaretz says that the West's objections do not stem solely from concerns about the residents of Rafah. There is also growing criticism of Israel's humanitarian aid policy and the harm it is causing to the people of Gaza. While Israel officially denies the existence of famine in Gaza, the international community is growing concerned.

The strike launched by a drone last week on a relief convoy belonging to the Central World Kitchen organization, which resulted in the killing of 7 foreign employees, will put more pressure on Israel to remove obstacles preventing the distribution of aid. Once the construction of the American pier south of Gaza City is completed, the plan is to send approximately two million meals a day to Gaza via this route.

Operational Update - Judea-Samaria

The Commander of the Home Front Command, Major General Rafi Milo, last night (Sunday) signed a confiscation and demolition order for the house where the terrorist Fadi Jamjom lived in the Shoafat refugee camp in East Jerusalem. The terrorist carried out the shooting attack at Ram Junction on February 16, 2024, in which the late Major General Uri Yaish was killed, an Israeli citizen was murdered and other civilians were injured. The IDF shares in the grief of the families. The order was signed after the submission submitted on the subject was rejected.

The forces of the IDF, the Shin Bet and the Security Forces operated tonight to arrest 11 wanted persons throughout Judea and Samaria. As part of an operation in the Binyamin Brigade, the fighters arrested four wanted persons in Kfar al-Mu'air, and in Kfar Anta the forces arrested another wanted person and confiscated a gun. The forces arrested three wanted men in the Al-Arov area of the Etzion Brigade. In the village of Dora in the Yehuda Brigade, the soldiers arrested a wanted man and interrogated dozens of other suspects. The wanted persons who were arrested and the means of warfare that were confiscated were transferred to the security forces for further treatment, there are no casualties to our forces.

So far, since the beginning of the war, approximately 3,700 wanted persons have been arrested throughout the Judea and Samaria Division and the Bekaa and Emekim Division, approximately 1,600 of whom are associated with the terrorist organization Hamas.

A terrorist arrived at the Taysir checkpoint in the Bekaa and Emekim division. After she refused to identify herself, she tried to stab the IDF soldiers who were in the position. The soldiers responded by shooting and neutralized the terrorist. There were no casualties to Israeli forces.

Israeli forces carried out a series of new incursions into cities and towns in the West Bank, where ongoing armed clashes were reported in the Balata camp, east of Nablus. While Israeli forces stormed Balata camp with bulldozers in order to destroy infrastructure and roads, video clips showed that one of the military bulldozers caught fire after it was targeted with a high explosive device inside the camp.

In the city of Hebron, at dawn on Monday, Israeli forces arrested at least 23 Palestinians during raids and searches in the towns of Dura, Bani Naim, Al-Samu, Beit Ummar, and Al-Arroub camp. Meanwhile, Israeli forces stormed the city of Tulkarm and its camp at dawn today amid "systematic" destruction of infrastructure, according to what the official Palestinian Wafa news agency reported. The agency said that Israeli army bulldozers began bulldozing a section of Western Street in the vicinity of the Al-Murabitun Mosque in the area, while reconnaissance aircraft flew in the sky of the city at a low level. The bulldozers also destroyed Dowar Al-Alimi Street, damaging its infrastructure, especially the water network in the area and the stairs of the court complex.

The Israeli forces imposed a tight cordon on the Tulkarm camp after their vehicles and bulldozers stormed its northern entrance towards the Al-Balawneh neighborhood, deployed in its various axes, and deployed its snipers in high-rise buildings, while they began to bulldoze the streets in the aforementioned neighborhood. The bulldozing included sections of Nablus Street adjacent to the camp, while sounds of gunfire and explosions were heard intermittently.

Operational Update - Lebanon

According to the Ministry of Tourism data, about 20,000 of the evacuees from the north are still staying in hotels and another 40,000 people who were evacuated from their homes by order of the authorities are staying in housing solutions in the community while receiving housing grants from the National Insurance.

The leader of the Israeli opposition in the Knesset, Yair Lapid, touched on the issue of displaced Israelis, and said, “A situation cannot remain in which 80,000 are displaced in their country,” even if this matter costs war with the Lebanese Hezbollah .

United Nations officials have said that six months of violence on the Israel-Lebanon border “must stop”, urging de-escalation “while there is still space for diplomacy”. “It is six months since the exchanges of fire across the Blue Line began, and continue unabated, taking a heavy toll on both sides,” said a joint statement from UN special coordinator for Lebanon, Joanna Wronecka, and Aroldo Lazaro, head of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). UNIFIL peacekeepers patrol the so-called Blue Line between Lebanon and Israel, demarcated by the UN in 2000 after Israeli troops pulled out of southern Lebanon. The officials urged all sides to “avail of all avenues to avoid further escalation”. “The gradual expansion in the scope and scale of the confrontations … significantly raises the risk of miscalculation and further deterioration of an already alarming situation,” the UN officials warned.

Lebanese Hezbollah announced that it had targeted an Israeli ambush east of the Hanita site and other important military sites, confirming that direct casualties had been achieved. Hezbollah issued statements confirming that it had targeted "Zabdin Barracks, the Ruwaisat Al-Alam site, and an Israeli ambush east of the Hanita site with artillery fire, leaving its members dead and wounded."

Hezbollah explained in a statement: “In support of our steadfast Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip and in support of their valiant and honorable resistance, the Mujahideen of the Islamic Resistance were targeted at 7:30 pm on Monday 04/08/2017.” 2024 Zabdin barracks in the occupied Lebanese Shebaa Farms were fired with missile weapons and were directly hit. Hezbollah added: “In support of our steadfast Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip and in support of their valiant and honorable resistance, the Mujahideen of the Islamic Resistance targeted the site at 7:40 pm on Monday 04/08/2024.” Ruwaisat al-Alam in the occupied Lebanese hills of Kafr Shuba with missile weapons and hit him directly.”

He stressed in another statement: “In support of our steadfast Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip and in support of their valiant and honorable resistance, and after careful monitoring of the enemy’s movements, the Mujahideen of the Islamic Resistance discovered an ambush by a hostile group east of the Hanita site, so they targeted it at 18:50 on the evening of Monday, 04/08/2024, with artillery fire, killing and wounding its members.”

The Israeli army announced that it “was able to eliminate one of the leaders of Hezbollah’s Radwan forces in a raid on the town of Sultaniya, south of Lebanon.” The Lebanese News Agency also reported that the raid led to the killing of 3 civilians. The Israeli army said in a statement: “On the night of Sunday and Monday, Israeli Air Force planes bombed the commander of Hezbollah’s Radwan forces in the Hujair area, Ali Ahmed Hussein. The strike was carried out in the Sultaniyeh area in southern Lebanon, and also led to the killing of other Hezbollah members who were under his command.” The IDF stated that Hussein, "through his position, was responsible for planning and carrying out terrorist attacks against Israeli civilians in northern Israel. Since the beginning of the war, he has carried out numerous launching operations towards Israeli territory."

Hezbollah mourned in a statement: “The martyr Mujahid Ali Ahmed Hussein (Abbas Jaafar), born in 1984 from the city of Beirut, who rose as a martyr on the road to Jerusalem.” The Lebanese News Agency said that the Israeli army launched a raid targeting an inhabited house in the town of Sultaniya, south of Lebanon, killing 3 people and wounding others. The Lebanese Civil Defense crews are working to remove the rubble and search for those injured as a result of the Israeli army raid that targeted the town of Sultaniya.

During the day, warplanes attacked military buildings, a launch site and terrorist infrastructure of Hezbollah in the area of the village of Shoba in southern Lebanon. In addition, they attacked a military structure of the Hezbollah terrorist organization where terrorists were staying, a military infrastructure and another military structure in the Al-Adaisa area. The air defense fighters intercepted a suspicious aerial target that crossed from Lebanese territory towards the Metula area, there were no casualties. A number of launches were identified that crossed from Lebanese territory towards the Western Galilee and the Mount Dov area, some of which landed in Lebanese territory, the rest landed according to policy, there were no casualties.

Fighter jets attacked a Hezbollah military infrastructure in the al-Khyam area where a terrorist from the terrorist organization was staying. During the night, warplanes attacked a Hezbollah military structure in the village of Kila in southern Lebanon. Earlier today, an explosive Hezbollah drone that crossed Lebanese territory fell in an open area in the area of Rosh Hankara, there were no casualties. Following the alerts that were activated earlier today in the Upper Galilee area, Sugar intercepted a target that was suspected of being an aerial target that had crossed from Lebanon, after an examination it turns out that it was a false identification.

Fighter jets of the Air Force attacked and killed Ali Ahmed Hasin, the commander of the Hajir attack area (Ramim Ridge) of the Radwan force in the Hezbollah terrorist organization, in the Al-Saltaniya area in Lebanon. Ali Ahmed Hasin served as a veteran and senior official in the terrorist organization, equivalent in rank to the rank of brigadier general. As part of his role, he was responsible for planning and executing terrorist plots in the Ramim area against the Israeli home front. Since the beginning of the war, Hossein launched many launches towards the territory of the country and as part of his attack last night, two more terrorists who were under his command in the terrorist organization were eliminated.

Speaking to Hebrew media, sources in the Israeli army confirmed that “Hezbollah in Lebanon succeeded in shooting down an Israeli Kokhav Hermes 900 drone. It continued, on Monday, that “this is happening for the first time,” stressing that “Hezbollah’s downing of the Hermes 900 is a reminder that the Israeli army’s drones are not invincible.” In this context, the Hebrew newspaper "Haaretz" acknowledged "Hezbollah's air defense capabilities that allow it to shoot down Israeli drones, the first of which was not the Hermes 900." Rather, the newspaper reported that "the party shot down a Zik drone (Hermes 450) last February."

"According to various reports, Hezbollah's anti-aircraft system consists, among other things, of a combination of heavy-fire cannons and shoulder-fired missiles such as Strela 2 and Igla, which operate at medium or higher altitudes." The newspaper pointed out that “the Zik drone, which returned to the occupied Palestinian territories in November 2023, was targeted by an Iranian 358 (Saqr) missile.” It explained, “The 358 missile can reach the heights where Kokhav operates ,” and Fabian Hintz, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, pointed out that “Hezbollah has not yet revealed that it possesses additional long-range anti-aircraft systems.”

On the other hand, Hebrew sources talk about Hezbollah receiving radar-based anti-aircraft systems from Iran and Syria, such as the SA-22 and SA-17, which can reach ranges of tens of kilometers and altitudes of 15 kilometers or more, and may also threaten drones such as “Hermes 900,” according to Hintz. The importance of Hezbollah's downing of the Hermes 900 can be read from its features mentioned by Haaretz, as this drone, which entered operational service for the first time in 2014, can attack targets using munitions such as precise air-to-surface missiles.

But most of the Hermes 900 activity is intelligence due to its long range and long ability to fly, with continuous monitoring of areas and the use of advanced photographic arrays including electro-optical and thermal lenses, laser sensors and other means that integrate radars to identify and track the target, according to what the newspaper said. It continued, "Dedicated pods can be installed on this type of drone, allowing them to eavesdrop on different types of wireless communications, as well as electronic warfare devices of different types that enable the disruption and prevention of wireless communications when necessary." Yesterday, the military media published scenes documenting the process of the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon shooting down the armed drone of the occupation army, “Hermes 900,” over Lebanese territory.

The Lebanese do not seem at all reassured about the course of affairs in the region. They are the ones who have been thrust into a war in which a large part of them believes that “they have no camel in it” after Hezbollah unilaterally declared the southern region a war zone in support of Gaza last October. They fear that Tehran's response to Israel's targeting of its consulate headquarters in Damascus, and then the Israeli reaction to this response, will lead to the outbreak of an expanded war in the region, with Lebanon as its main arena.

The Lebanese are divided between those who expect a harsh response to the size of the target struck by Israel, most of whom are Hezbollah supporters, and those who believe that the response will be limited and more likely to be symbolic, suggesting that there will likely be an Iranian-American understanding in this regard to avoid expanding the war in the region. As for the third category, it is likely that there will be no response, and that the slogan “response in the appropriate place and time” will continue to be used without this response occurring.

Sarcastic campaigns were launched on social media sites, and a picture was published of the commander of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Qassem Soleimani, with the words “Where is my revenge?” He was the one who died in Baghdad in 2020. The Revolutionary Guard announced at the time He targeted two bases housing American forces in the Iraqi provinces of Anbar and Erbil.

Although Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah confirmed in his last appearance that “the Iranian response will inevitably come,” without indicating the possibility of Hezbollah taking over the response, Lebanese Forces sources believe that the possibility of Iran entrusting Hezbollah’s response, or any of its arms in the region, is “a scandal and a defeat because what was targeted today in Damascus is Iran itself.” The Iranian consulate is Iranian territory, and therefore if Tehran does not respond directly to the targeting, this means a clear acknowledgment by it that it is too powerless to respond, that it is in a weak position, and that, contrary to all its claims of strength, it is incorrect media talk.”

The sources indicate in a statement to Asharq Al-Awsat that “experience has proven since the killing of Qassem Soleimani until today that Iran does not adopt the classic response, but rather relies on the response by its arms to avoid entering into a state-to-state confrontation; Because she is too weak to enter this confrontation.”

The sources believe that “Hezbollah, basically since it entered the Gaza war without asking the state and the government, taking the decision alone without consulting anyone, has committed an unforgivable sin against the Lebanese because it led to their displacement, the destruction of their homes, and the killing of hundreds of them, without forgetting the negative impact on the economy.” Therefore, if he goes to take revenge on Iran, he will also be using Lebanon for Iranian considerations, and will deliberately involve it in a regional conflict on Lebanese soil, using the Lebanese people to serve the Iranian project.

For his part, the head of the Middle East Center for Strategic Studies, retired Brigadier General Dr. Hisham Jaber, believes that “the Iranian response is inevitable, but the Iranians are still studying how to respond so that it does not amount to a declaration of war because Israel is harassing Iran to drag it into a clash with it, and the latter knows that its clash will be directly with Israel.” It means a war with the United States of America that it does not want.”

Jaber confirmed in a statement to Asharq Al-Awsat that “the response will be direct from Tehran after it announced the maximum mobilization,” suggesting that “an Israeli consulate may be in Kurdistan, which is directly within range of Iranian fire and missiles, or the response may be at sea by targeting an Israeli ship.” He added: “As for attacking American interests in the region, it is completely excluded, and Washington has been informed of that.” Jaber believes that there will be “another response through Iran’s allies in the region,” ruling out that any response from Hezbollah will lead to an expansion of the battle because it is something it has been avoiding for months.

In light of the continuing tension on the Israeli-Lebanese border, Israeli mayors in towns located in the northern regions are preparing to launch a popular battle to force the government to resolve the situation and go to war or to a political agreement to remove the “Radwan Forces”, the elite units of “Hezbollah”. About the borders and ending the border dispute between the two countries.

This threat came in the wake of the army's unusual movements in the region, after Iran's threats to retaliate for the assassination of the commander of the Quds Force in the Revolutionary Guard, Brigadier General Mohammad Radhi Zahedi, responsible for the fronts of Syria, Lebanon and Palestine. Although Israel estimates that the chances of there being a direct Iranian response towards Israel are close to zero, there is a conviction that there will be a response from another party, which may be an Iranian militia operating in Iraq or Syria, or the Houthis in Yemen, and it rules out even assuming the task of The response is the Lebanese Hezbollah. Therefore; The army is preparing to confront this threat. He raised the level of alert until the end of this week and began a series of fortification operations and training in full view of the public in the north. This includes:

This publication was accompanied by the broadcast of news about preparations by the Home Front to transfer large quantities of citizens of northern towns on a large scale to the central regions, such as Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. This made people convinced that expanding the war to the north was more realistic than ever before. They talk about the months of May and June as dates for the Third Lebanon War. It may erupt earlier if Iran responds to the Damascus strike.

The mayors want the government to resolve the matter because they cannot tolerate the war of attrition being waged today with missile exchanges and the continuation of the current ambiguous situation. They are not happy with the decision of the Knesset (Israeli Parliament) to go into recess for 5 weeks the day after tomorrow (Wednesday).

David Azoulay, head of a local council, says: “The people of Metulla are living in a state of extreme frustration. There is nothing clear about them. They feel that the government neglects them and belittles their suffering, and that no one asks about them.” He said: “We have a government of 38 ministers. Only two of them are asking for our help and knowing our demands, Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot. But they are not responsible for issues related to our needs. Our town is completely destroyed. Citizens do not know the extent of the destruction caused by Hezbollah's bombing and how they will deal with it. Many do not want to return here. They tell us that the number of displaced people from southern Lebanon to the north is twice our number. But this does not console us. “We want a stable situation.”

The mayor of Kiryat Shmona, Abihai Stern, complained that “the government is planning a sweeping reduction in budgets in order to finance the expansion of prisons to accommodate Hamas detainees.” We will not allow this. Without a radical solution for our towns that puts an end once and for all to the Hezbollah threat, we will not allow our residents to return without a radical solution,” he said.

Operational Update - Syria / Iraq

Iran has reportedly signaled to the United States that it may refrain from retaliating against Israel for the recent airstrike on its embassy in Damascus, under one condition: a ceasefire agreement in Gaza. According to sources cited by Iranian media outlet Jadeh Iran on Sunday, Tehran sees an opportunity for the Biden administration to achieve a significant breakthrough if it can quell the tensions in Gaza. However, this information has not been officially confirmed by Iran's state media.

An unconfirmed, single-sourced report is alleging that Tehran promised Washington it would not retaliate to last week’s Israel’s airstrike, which killed several of the regime’s senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards commanders in Syria. The alleged condition for Iran’s restraint? A ceasefire in Gaza. That report by Jadeh Iran – unconfirmed by Iran International – is now circulating not just on social media, but has landed in the pages of Israeli news outlets.

Some Iranians on social media meanwhile, quickly reacted to the report suggesting that the report is likely regime propaganda masking the fact that Tehran lacks the courage to retaliate against Israel. Written by Ali Hashem, the Arabic piece in the web-based outlet “Jadeh Iran” paints the picture of Tehran in a dilemma between wanting to preserve its dignity after the Damascus attack – and avoiding escalating tensions in the Middle East and with that warning the US against falling into Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's “trap” and seeking a ceasefire in Gaza as a condition for de-escalation.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian went to inaugurate a new consular section of the country’s embassy in Damascus on Monday a week after the building was demolished in an Israeli airstrike. During his visit to Damascus, Amirabdollahian will open a building that will serve as the new consular section of the Iranian embassy. Iran’s foreign minister has accused Washington of approving a deadly strike believed to be carried out by Israel on Tehran’s consulate in Damascus last week. “America is responsible for this incident and must be held accountable,” Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian told reporters after he inaugurated a new consulate in the Syrian capital. “The fact that the US and two European countries opposed a [UN Security Council] resolution condemning the attack on the Iranian embassy is a sign that the US gave the green light to the Zionist regime [Israel]” to carry out the attack, he said.

Asked about Amirabdollahian’s remarks, Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh denied Washington was connected to the attack. “I can very forcefully push back on that and say … the US military had no involvement in that strike that took place in Damascus,” she told journalists.

Iran has vowed retaliation for an Israeli attack on its consulate in Damascus last Monday. The strike was part of a pattern of escalated Israeli attacks in Syria since the eruption of the Gaza war last October. These attacks have often targeted warehouses, trucks, and airports, and Israel’s declared aim for them is degrading Iran’s transnational supply network for the Lebanese group Hezbollah.

Monday’s attack was different, however, in that it struck a diplomatic facility – directly challenging Iran’s sovereignty – and killed senior leaders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The most high-profile casualty was Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a veteran commander who led the IRGC foreign operations wing, the Quds Force, in Syria and Lebanon.

How will Iran respond? As it turns out, Tehran has a lot of options – but none of them are very good. A major player in Middle East politics, Iran generally projects its power through a network of ideologically aligned allies and non-state groups – a network that styles itself the “Axis of Resistance”. These groups include the Houthis of Yemen, Hamas of Palestine, Hezbollah of Lebanon, and Shia militia factions like Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq, plus Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria.

The actors fall on a spectrum ranging from hardcore IRGC loyalists and proxies, like the two Hezbollahs, to autonomous but often dependent partners and allies of Tehran, like Hamas, the Houthis, and the al-Assad regime. Collectively, they benefit from Iranian support while their actions help Iran maintain deniability and keep its conflicts with Israel, the United States, and Gulf Arab states like Saudi Arabia at arm’s length.

In 2020, however, Iran took the unusual step of responding to the US assassination of the Quds Force leader Qassem Soleimani – which was itself unprecedented – by staging a direct attack on US forces, launching a barrage of ballistic missiles at the Ain al-Assad base in Iraq. US soldiers at the base were injured but none were killed, in large part because they had received warning from the Iraqi government. It was an impressive demonstration of Iranian missile technology, but underwhelming as a retaliatory action. Iranian leaders continued to voice vague threats about additional future retaliation and helped Iraqi militias harass US forces – and, over time, the urgency of it all faded away.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is seen as being in a bind. It is widely assumed that he wants to retaliate visibly, not just to avenge the killing of senior officials but also because not doing so would tarnish Iran’s credibility as a regional power. But now is not a good time. The region has been aflame since the start of the Gaza war, following Hamas’s October 7 attack in Israel, which killed more than 1,100 Israelis, and the Israeli government’s brutal response, which has killed more than 33,100 Palestinians thus far and pushed Gaza into famine conditions.

Since October 2023, vicious tit-for-tat violence has raged along the Israel-Lebanon border, there has been a long string of attacks on US forces in Syria and Iraq, and Red Sea shipping has been disrupted by Houthi missile and drone strikes. Although methods and targets differ from country to country, these attacks all enjoy Iran’s support and they all aim to pressure Israeli and US leaders to stop the war in Gaza.

Even though Iran may be willing to tolerate the risk of an accidental regional war, it has repeatedly shown that it does not want direct conflict with Israel or the US and will try to keep violence below that threshold. When Iran-backed groups killed three US soldiers in Jordan earlier this year, Washington retaliated with air attacks on Syria and Iraq. Tehran seemed to back down: Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani reportedly told pro-Iran factions in Iraq to stop targeting US troops. Since then, they have mostly been sending drones against Israel, with little effect.

But failing to respond – or responding only through low-key proxy actions – does not seem like an option for Tehran, given that it has publicly committed itself to avenging the consulate attack. Khamenei has said Iran’s “brave men” will punish Israel, one of his advisers has warned that Israeli embassies “are no longer safe”, and two officials recently told the New York Times they will retaliate directly against Israel, to restore deterrence.

Failing to live up to these public threats could make Iran seem weak in the eyes of friends and foes alike, potentially putting it at a disadvantage during regional unrest and signalling to Israel that continued escalation carries no cost. Iran is likely also concerned that attacks on Iranian high-level officials and state assets could become a normal feature of its tit-for-tat conflict with Israel, at a very bad moment in time.

Keeping conflict with Israel and the US under control was always an important goal of Iranian foreign policy. But it is doubly so now, given that the most anti-Iranian president in contemporary US history, Donald Trump, may be about to reclaim the White House. From Tehran’s point of view, surrendering control over the escalatory dynamic to Israel just before the start of another Trump presidency would be very, very bad policy.

What to do? Iran has many powerful proxies and allies in the Middle East, but none of them seems well placed to effect a retaliatory action calibrated to Iran’s concerns about longer-term risks. The Houthis in Yemen have been waging a highly successful campaign against merchant shipping since last year, using Iranian-supplied arms. But although they have also shown themselves capable of launching high-tech Iranian missiles and drones at southern Israel, those attacks are not very effective. US and European warships have set up a thick layer of air defences along the Red Sea, and Israel’s missile defences have been able to knock down most of whatever gets through that gauntlet. The Houthis have struggled to hit Israeli territory, and even then it did not affect the war in Gaza or regional dynamics meaningfully. In other words, while Iran could enable and encourage ramped-up Yemeni strikes, it would probably not do much to help it out of its deterrence quandary.

Khamenei’s problem is that his best tools against Israel are also the ones most likely to draw a harsh Israeli response and trigger uncontrollable escalation – which might end badly for Iran. For example, Iran seems perfectly capable of replaying its 2020 reaction to the death of Soleimani, by firing a volley of ballistic missiles into Israeli territory. But even if the impact were fairly minor – if the missiles crash into the empty desert or detonate without deaths in an isolated military facility – a post-October 7 Israel is likely to respond ferociously, potentially overshadowing and nullifying the symbolic impact of Iran’s missile strike. It is not likely to seem an appealing outcome to Iran, given that the central plank of its strategy has been to avoid a direct war.

Retaliating at scale via Lebanon is another option. Iran has spent decades boosting Hezbollah’s rocket and missile arsenal, equipping the group with sophisticated ballistic and cruise missiles, and drones. Most of these precision weapons have not been used in the post-October conflict, but they are on hand for any decision to escalate. Major attacks from Lebanon would, however, mean playing one of Hezbollah’s best cards early, and it would also run the risk of destabilising an already dangerous and fragile situation on the Israel-Lebanon border, which is precisely what Iran and Hezbollah have tried to avoid.

The idea has been to keep border violence at a controlled simmer since October 2023, as a way of drawing Israeli resources away from Gaza while incentivising a conflict-averse US to put a leash on its belligerent Israeli ally. A major strike from Lebanon to burnish Iran’s deterrence credentials does not seem compatible with that kind of high-stakes balancing.

Iran may try to hit Israeli diplomatic facilities, to project eye-for-eye retaliation after Israel’s attack on the Damascus consulate. As a precautionary measure, Israel has reportedly shuttered 28 embassies worldwide. Any Iranian strike on an Israeli diplomatic facility would be unlikely to kill a Zahedi-type security chief and thus would not really be comparable to Israel’s attack. But even a minor attack on an Israeli embassy or consulate could help Iranian leaders argue that they have now evened out the score: you hit our diplomatic facilities, we hit yours.

An attack on a diplomatic facility could be overt, using missiles or drones launched from Iranian territory. It would damage Iran’s relations with the host nation involved, but depending on which nation that is, Tehran may be willing to accept some political drama. In January 2024, Iran fired ballistic missiles at what it claimed was a Mossad base in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq – without offering evidence – while also striking unrelated targets in Syria and Pakistan. It was a strange, sudden way of lashing out, and it is not clear that the strikes had any effect other than demonstrating Iran’s ability to hit distant targets and make itself seem dangerous and unpredictable – which may have been the intended effect.

Repeating that strike now would be a low-risk course of action. Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) authorities are unable to respond in any meaningful fashion and while the central government in Baghdad might react angrily, the fallout would surely be manageable. Still, it is not clear that blowing up another piece of KRG territory would satisfy those Iranian and Axis hardliners who want to see serious vengeance after Zahedi’s death. In other words, even if convenient, such an attack might not be enough by itself.

Covert action – like unclaimed drone strikes, assassinations, or bombings, perhaps via Hezbollah or some other proxy – is another option. Iran has done it before and still remains capable of doing it. Then again, the less overt the attack and the longer it takes to execute, the less it will help Iran’s deterrence. While killing an Israeli diplomat might be counted as a success for Iranian leaders, the problem they need to solve is how to make Israel and others think twice about bombing Iranian assets.

Talking loudly while carrying a small stick, Iran has strong reasons to react forcefully to Israel’s Damascus attack – and even stronger reasons to make sure that its response is not perceived as too forceful. Moreover, it has many ways of attacking Israel, whether through its own military capabilities or semi-covertly through the Axis of Resistance network of pro-Iran factions. And yet, the sum of all these parts does not add up to much. None of Iran’s retaliatory options seems well-adapted to the current situation, in which the stakes are already uncomfortably high due to the Gaza conflict.

The available means of retaliation will either not generate enough symbolic and material impact to let Khamenei and his cohorts claim they have settled the score – or they will, but at the cost of uncontrollable and probably unacceptable risks to Iran’s longer-term security. It is likely then that Iran will have to make do with another underwhelming response or set of responses. As in 2020, it must then do its best to patch up the all-too-visible holes in its deterrence posture with fiery rhetoric. No amount of angry statements can harm Israel or dissuade it from attacking again, but they can at least provide some temporary comfort to the Axis of Resistance hardliners.

" Islamic Resistance in Iraq " announced at dawn on Monday that it had targeted the Yafalet base, north of Lake Tiberias in Israel, with drones. It indicated in a statement that the operation is part of its ongoing operations against the occupation, in response to the massacres it is committing against Palestinian civilians, including children, women and the elderly, in the Gaza Strip . It also confirmed that it would continue to "destroy enemy strongholds."

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq announced at dawn yesterday, Sunday, that it had targeted a vital target for the Israeli army in the city of Eilat, “Umm al-Rashash,” using drones. During the past weeks, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq targeted Haifa Airport and the Israeli Ben Gurion Airport using drones, in addition to the electricity station at Haifa Airport and the chemicals station at Haifa Port. It had previously claimed responsibility for bombing areas in Israel and American bases in Syria and Iraq as a response to the devastating Israeli war on the Gaza Strip, and the United States warned that it would increase the number of its operations, in response to Washington’s continued provision of military assistance to Israel.

Operational Update - Yemen

Vasilios Gryparis, the commander of a European Union naval mission in the Red Sea – dubbed Aspides, from the Greek for “shield” – wants to significantly increase its size to better defend against attacks by Houthi rebels. Just four warships are currently patrolling an area twice the size of the 27-nation bloc. Gryparis said that “to cross the high-risk area takes almost two days”, adding that the zone “has seen multiple attacks in the past months”.

Maps

Bystanders

An attack that killed seven World Central Kitchen (WCK) aid workers in Gaza last week “exemplifies Israel’s policy of targeting humanitarian relief operations in Gaza”, three Palestinian human rights organisations say. Al-Haq, Al Mezan Center for Human Rights and the Palestinian Centre for Human Rights condemned the April 1 attack, saying it “underscores” the Israeli army’s “deliberate targeting” of humanitarian operations and aid workers in the enclave.

“It provides yet another example in the pattern of Israel’s systematic military attacks on humanitarian aid convoys and distribution centres, and coupled with the deliberate attacks on Palestinians awaiting aid and workers involved in aid distribution and protection,” the groups said in a statement. The attacks, they said, amount to a “continuing act of genocide” and force humanitarian organisations to cease life-saving operations in Gaza.

Gisha, an Israeli NGO that focuses on protecting the freedom of movement of Palestinians, says government steps to improve aid flows into Gaza would be “meaningless” if there is no ceasefire or “effective deconfliction”. “These measures and many others should have happened months ago. The fact that they didn’t has resulted in more avoidable death and suffering for Palestinians in Gaza. Much more must still be done to facilitate the humanitarian response to the catastrophe,” the group said.

Axis of Resistance

Apart from diplomatic action, holding funerals, and engaging in extensive propaganda emphasizing martyrdom, Iran has refrained from further measures. "Definitely, in connection with the attack on the Iranian consular building in Damascus, several meetings of the Supreme National Security Council have been held at the level of leaders" says the Raisi administration’s Minister of Sports and Youth. The recurrence of these meetings suggests an internal divide among security, military, and political leaders regarding the appropriate response to what Tehran perceives as a significant Israeli provocation. The absence of concrete action a week after the incident may also indicate underlying disagreements. The reactions have been limited to mere promises of retaliation and statements from the Leader’s office vowing the destruction of Israel. While these actions may serve as propaganda tools, they fall short in alleviating the humiliation felt by the regime. While IRGC circles continue to threaten a harsh retaliation, other regime circles, such as Friday Imams call for caution and “strategic patience.

The Iranian street confirms that the Israeli attacks on the Iranian consular section in the Syrian capital will not bring Netanyahu an important achievement so that he can pretend victory, while the Iranian public suffers from deep fear of an expected Iranian reaction. The Iranians believe that their country's response must be calculated so that the Israeli Prime Minister avoids any upcoming crazy move, especially as he struggles to remain in power. They also confirm that the response to the aggression that targeted the Iranian consular section in Damascus is in line with diplomatic principles and norms. The Iranian street believes that the response will be decisive for the occupation government’s aggressive aspirations and an important lesson against the backdrop of its ongoing attacks against Gaza. It will also establish a new phase of the balance of power in the region within the political and military strategies of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah said that the United States rules Israel and the story of the Zionist lobby is nonsense. Nasrallah added: “The great foolishness committed by the enemy in bombing the Iranian consulate in Damascus hastened Biden’s call with Netanyahu...and Biden’s recent call is evidence that Washington can impose on Israel what it wants.” He continued, saying: “Biden claimed that he put pressure on Netanyahu because of the killing of aid workers and demanded that he take measures, so his chief of staff dismissed the chief of staff of the Nahal Brigade and reprimanded the commander of the southern region and a commander in the Nahal Brigade, and this, according to military custom, is a big matter.”

The Secretary-General of Hezbollah stated that what happened condemns the United States because it acted for the sake of relief workers only, while it did not act to apply pressure after the killing of more than 33,000 Palestinians . Nasrallah stated that a mere ceasefire in Gaza would mean a resounding, historic defeat for Israel and Netanyahu. He explained that Netanyahu will try to obstruct the negotiations under the table because the ceasefire will mean the end of Ben Gvir, Smotrich, and the Likud party. He pointed out in his speech that Netanyahu is disconnected from reality and says that Israel has achieved victory, while the whole world tells him, “You lost.”

Nasrallah said in a speech on Monday that targeting Iranian advisors at the consulate in Damascus is the highest-profile Israeli attack of its kind in Syria in years. The Secretary-General of the Lebanese Hezbollah added that Israel declared an open war. Hassan Nasrallah stated that the targeting stems from the Israeli understanding of the role of the Guard’s advisors in the region at the resistance level, and it is part of the clearest, most honorable, and most central battle in the region and the nation.

He stated in his speech that Tel Aviv announced that the goal was to remove the Iranian advisors from Syria, indicating that Israel was unable to do that and they remained to support the resistance in Palestine and Lebanon and to support Syria. Nasrallah explained that the Israeli targeting of the advisors came due to the failure of the global war on Syria, in which Israel was involved. The Secretary-General stressed that the Iranian consulate was the one that was targeted, which means that the attack was against Iran and not just Syria. This is in addition to the fact that the level of assassination is different, as the martyr Zahedi was the official advisor in Syria.

Nasrallah stated that Israel miscalculated in targeting the consulate in relation to the announced Iranian position and the expected reaction. He pointed out that America, Israel, and the entire world have accepted that an Iranian response is coming, stressing that this is right.

He added, "It is very clear that after months and half a year have passed since the war on Gaza, the goals that were set have not been achieved and Israel's situation has worsened from every possible angle." He continued by saying, "Israel is waging its longest war in our region, and they say that after 6 months of the war, we have not returned more than half of the kidnapped people. We have not entered Rafah, and sirens are still sounding around the Gaza Strip, and new officers and soldiers have been killed." Nasrallah stated that the Israeli brigades that withdrew from Khan Yunis withdrew humiliatedly under fire.

Palestinian forces warned of the danger of what the Zionist enemy is trying to promote by storming the blessed Al-Aqsa Mosque, slaughtering sacrifices, bringing red cows, etc., in an attempt to harm Jerusalem and its holy places. According to Ma'an News Agency, the national and Islamic forces stressed in a statement the importance of combining all efforts to stop the war of genocide and destruction that the enemy continues to continue against the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, including Jerusalem.

In its statement after the meeting, the “Forces” mourned the Palestinian people, our nation, and the free people of the world, the prisoner Walid Daqqa, who was martyred as a result of deliberate medical negligence, the arrogance of the enemy, and the refusal to release him for treatment, and who spent more than 38 years of steadfastness in the occupation’s cells. The Forces held the Zionist enemy responsible for all these crimes against which prisoners are exposed, especially male and female prisoners from the Gaza Strip who are subjected to forced disappearance and field executions.

The "forces" stressed the importance of the broadest participation of the Palestinian people on Prisoner's Day, which falls on April 17 of each year, stressing the importance of commemorating the activities of this day in all governorates of the country, within the lands of the year 1948, in refugee camps and diaspora, and in many capitals of the world, with the participation of the free people of the world.

Allied for Democracy

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant said, "We are prepared to pay the price in order to return the kidnapped people," stressing that, "After that, we will return to fighting, and we will enter Rafah." In a statement during his meeting with armored and combat engineer recruits, Gallant touched on the ongoing negotiations regarding the hostage deal, saying: “There will be difficult decisions. We will be prepared to pay the price in order to return the kidnappers, and then we will return to fighting and do everything we need.” He considered, "We have reached an appropriate point... I do not know whether this will lead to such an operation or not, but every soldier in the IDF must know that the State of Israel stands behind him when he goes to his mission. We know how to stand behind everyone." Even in the most difficult circumstances." He stressed, " The Israeli army will also enter Rafah after the forces left Khan Yunis yesterday. We will solve the problem of the military force present there."

Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak called for shortening the life of Benjamin Netanyahu's government , "and if it is possible to end it tomorrow or earlier than that, and if it requires holding elections, they must be held." In statements reported by Israeli Channel 12, Barak said that Israel is facing one of the most complex situations. “There is Iran and Hezbollah, and the Houthis are continuing, and the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) is in Gaza, which is still far from defeat, and the kidnapped are still there, and those who have been evacuated from their homes.” They still are, and relations with the United States are deteriorating, and movements are being made in the world to recognize the Palestinian state without discussing this with Israel.”

Israeli opposition leader, Yair Lapid, said in a post on the “X” platform, that his Yesh Atid party is ready to provide a “full safety net” in the Knesset at any moment, in order to complete a deal to return the hostages. Lapid, who is currently in the United States, indicated that his party has 24 seats in the Knesset (Parliament), which is about 10 seats more than what the “Religious Zionist” party, headed by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, and “Otzma Yehudit,” headed by National Security Minister Itamar, have. Ben Ghafir. During his visit to Washington, Lapid is scheduled to meet with US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, and other officials.

Writer Nisreen Malek published an article in The Guardian newspaper in which she discussed the change in tone and discourse even among friends of the occupying entity during this period, and what that means, with the passage of half a year since the war in Gaza. Nisreen says in her article, which she published under the title “After six months, the war in Gaza has changed dramatically, and the roads have become almost closed to Israel,” that Israel obtained an amnesty from its allies in the attack on Gaza in the wake of the Hamas attacks on October 7. First, but with the repetition and accumulation of tragedies, “a state has emerged that violates all protocols in a way that takes it out of the democratic space, and has even become an outlaw group,” according to the article.

The author believes that Israel on the ground has not only exaggerated its reaction, but is “arrogant” after press reports appeared about Israeli forces allowing the killing of civilians during their operations, which the author considers to be a disregard for the rulings and warnings issued by organizations of the democratic, law-abiding world, as the article puts it. It is "the world that Israel claims to represent in a backward and hostile region, which has made its allies appear weak and helpless, which has led to the destabilization of their internal policies."

The writer adds: “Israel is traditionally seen as sharing Western political and cultural values. It is seen as having a kind of morality,” and the focus on social freedoms and respect for the hierarchy of global powers, which made it worthy of endless support, but its treatment of the Palestinians sometimes constitutes embarrassing turns. "Israel must get rid of it."

According to the article, six months of war is a long time for Arab governments to continue navigating the boundaries between maintaining good relations with the United States and concern about regional stability with the risk of the war spreading, as well as the growing internal anger over Gaza, and how this could lead to turmoil in the country. Plans of unelected governments that do not need more dissatisfaction to manage them.

According to the article, if we take it all together, it is not difficult to see why, by all accounts, Joe Biden made his strongest call with Netanyahu to date. He noted, for the first time, that more support comes with conditions, calling on Israel to implement “a series of specific, concrete and measurable steps to address civilian harm, human suffering and the safety of aid workers,” and calling for an immediate ceasefire. In conclusion, Nisreen says, “In short, changes in tone and political demands are only beginning to bring the official world into line with public opinion and the fears of countless demonstrators... A change of opinion among Israel’s friends is welcome, if it will contribute somewhat to alleviating Humanitarian crises and accelerating the end of the war.”

The attack launched by the Palestinian resistance on October 7, 2023 in the Battle of “ Al-Aqsa Flood ” opened the door to wide discussion about the Israeli deterrence strategy and the extent of its effectiveness in confronting challenges and threats, and many questions were raised about the extent of Israel’s heavy reliance on this strategy. The strategy, the extent of its erosion, and the failure to restore it, even after half a year of the aggression against Gaza.

Over the decades, the deterrence strategy has formed an important pillar of the Israeli security concept, and Tel Aviv has relied heavily on the deterrence force, which has remained a fundamental pillar in the Israeli security services’ dealings with the Palestinian resistance factions, and the Hamas movement in particular. The readings of Israeli political analysts agree that the sudden attack launched by Hamas on the “ Gaza envelope ” settlements and Israeli towns in the south reflects the failure of the deterrence policy adopted by the Israeli security establishment against Hamas, and these are the same assessments of military analysts and national security specialists, which agree among themselves that the continuation of the war On Gaza, it confirms Israel's failure to restore deterrence power.

In a reading of the concept of Israeli deterrence and what happened to it since last October 7, through the months of the war on Gaza, the military analyst on the Israeli Channel 13, Alon Ben David, says, “The concept of Israeli deterrence in confronting armed terrorist organizations has been proven wrong,” as he put it. The military analyst says, "Over the years, the Israeli army has explained to citizens that our combat tours create deterrence, making the enemy not want to fight with us. And for proof, they said: Look at the 16 years of wonderful calm that the northern border has enjoyed since the Second Lebanon War."

Ben David adds, “The concept of deterrence promoted by the various Israeli security services only led to the intensification of the Islamic threats around us, as the armed organizations surrounding Israel realized that all that was required was to build sufficient military force, which in the moment of truth could attack Israel and achieve The decision is in her favor.” The military analyst explained, “Lebanese Hezbollah and Hamas established offensive forces, and on the day the order was issued, the war was transferred to Israeli territory,” saying, “We deluded ourselves, and we believed in deterrence. We have to be honest with ourselves, if Hezbollah launched an attack with Hamas.” On October 7, we were still fighting to liberate the naval bases of the Northern Divisions and the air base at Ramat David near Haifa.”

Dr. Amir Lubovitz, lecturer at the Faculty of Political Science and International Relations at Tel Aviv University, reviewed a study he prepared in cooperation with the Institute for National Security Studies, in which he highlighted the failure of Israeli deterrence, and wondered why Israel placed its confidence in this strategy towards Hamas, despite the lack of clarity. How effective they are at all in confronting imminent threats. Lubovich explained, "Experiences during previous combat rounds on the Gaza front showed the ineffectiveness of Israeli deterrence, and its very limited impact on the approach and behavior of Hamas, which was secretly preparing to attack Israel, and which, despite the failure and ineffectiveness of its strategy, continued to adopt it."

Although it is still too early to determine with certainty the reasons for the failure of deterrence, Lubovich says, “Some doubt the ability to deter an organization like Hamas, but it can be estimated that a number of factors had a decisive influence on Hamas’ decision, which seemed undeterred, and adopted an element "Sudden attack on Israel, in order to prevent the liquidation of the Palestinian cause." The Israeli lecturer explained that Israel has refined its identity as a “deterrence force” over the years, as it saw its role on the international scene in terms of the deterrence it must exercise, and the effective steps it takes in order to achieve national security, a role that was shattered on October 7th.

It is believed that by launching the sudden attack on Israel, Hamas “shattered the identity of the Israeli deterrent force, which already seemed eroded, and the continuation of the war for a long period without a resolution also represents a threat to Israel’s security identity, which it has always prided itself on and that it is an effective deterrent element.”

Dr. Dan Seger, a researcher at the Leonard Davis Institute for International Relations at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, seemed more critical of the Israeli deterrence strategy, and asserted in an article on the Zaman Yisrael website that “Israeli deterrence against the Palestinians completely collapsed on October 7.” the past". "Following the surprise attack, Israel went to war primarily in order to undermine Hamas' military power, restore deterrence and return the kidnapped people, but after months of war, none of the goals were achieved, which reflects failure at all levels," Seger said.

Seger believes that "the continuation of the Israeli war on Gaza will not restore deterrence power, and the desired image of victory will not be framed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, due to the opening circumstances of this war, where Hamas had the upper hand in attacking Israel." He says, "As a researcher of Israeli deterrence, I believe that restoring Israel's deterrent power in the face of the Palestinians, Hezbollah, and other Iranian-sponsored organizations must be consistent, first and foremost, with the strong message that Israel will not abandon its citizens in times of war, and will not keep They should be captured."

US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said on Monday that the United States supports the return of Palestinians to their “homes and neighborhoods,” and reaffirmed Washington’s position rejecting an Israeli military operation in Rafah, the southernmost part of the Gaza Strip. Miller added: "We don't think that a large-scale operation in Rafah is something that we can support in any case, because we think it would be terrible for the more than 1.4 million Palestinians who are there." He continued: "We have not yet reached the conclusion that Israel has violated international humanitarian law, but we have ongoing assessments on several fronts." He added, "If Iran wants a ceasefire in Gaza, that is something it can achieve, because it has supported Hamas for a long time, and it can pressure the movement to accept the proposed deal.

According to the latest Chicago Council on Global Affairs-Ipsos poll, slightly more Americans think Israel has gone too far and its military actions in Gaza are not justified (32 percent) than think Israel is justified in defending its interests (27 percent). The poll also found that four in 10 Americans say the US should exert diplomatic pressure (14 percent) on Israel or restrict military aid (26 percent), but 23 percent say the US should not pressure Israel at all. The survey shows that three in 10 Americans view Netanyahu very or somewhat favourably (30 percent). This share has declined since September, especially among Democrats (from 24 to 17 percent) and independents (from 35 to 23 percent).

Operation Iron Swords - By the Numbers

In a new tally published today, the Ministry of Health in Gaza announced that the Israeli attacks left 32 martyrs and 47 injured within 24 hours.

• 1,900,000 IDPs in Gaza
• 75,933 Gazans injured, 28% adult male
• 70,000 tons of explosives dropped on Gaza
• 70,000 housing units completely destroyed
• 45,000 bombs dropped in Gaza
• 40,000 Gazans killed, including buried under rubble
• 33,000 Gaza targets attacked
• 33,207 Gazans martyred
• 20,528 Palestinians in Israeli prisons [Haaretz, 20 Mar 2024]
• 15,000 rocket launched from Gaza
• 14,793 Israelis injured [i24 TV]
• 14,520 Gazan children martyred
• 13,000 HAMAS combatants killed [N12]
• 13,000 HAMAS combatants killed [IDF]
• 11,000 arrested by Israelis in the West Bank in 2023
• 10,000 Gazans missing under the rubble
• 9,920 Gazan women martyred
• 9,000 Palestinians in Israeli prisons
• 9,000 IDF needing psychological assistance
• 8,100 arrested by Israelis in the West Bank since Oct.7th
• 6,800 IDF officers and soldiers injured [Channel 12]
• 6,000 HAMAS combatants killed [HAMAS]
• 5,500 IDF wounded [reports]
• 4,750 West Bank Palestinians wounded
• 4,700 sites targetted in Lebanon
• 3,484 administrative detainees
• 3,700 wanted persons arrested throughout Judea and Samaria
• 3,188 IDF wounded [IDF]
• 2,100 Gazan women are missing
• 1,609 terrorists killed on the first day
• 1,600 wanted persons arrested throughout Judea and Samaria affiliated with Hamas
• 1,160 Israelis killed on the first day
• 604 Israeli officers and soldiers killed since the start of the war
• 456 West Bank Palestinians martyred
• 343 people [including fighters] killed in Lebanon
• 260 Israeli officers and soldiers killed in Gaza
• 222 Hezbollah fighters killed in Lebanon
• 126 people recovered, including 91 Israelis, 11 bodies, and 24 foreign workers
• 116 living hostages in Palestinian custody
• 50 civilians killed in Lebanon
• 29 IDF deaths were caused by "friendly fire"
• 15 Israelis killed in the West Bank and Israel

Not every number is reported every day, so sudden jumps generally reflect reporting artifacts rather than actual upticks. Many of these numbers fluctate, up and down, with no apparent explanation. This list records the highest number reliably reported for each matter, under the theory that reality with catch up with reports, as is relentlessly the case.