Operation Iron Swords - 01-03 August 2024

01 August 2024

“For months, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has done everything in his power to impede all diplomatic efforts aimed at ending the war. By killing the top Palestinian negotiator, Israel has delivered a final and decisive message that Israel remains invested in violence, and in nothing else,” says Ramzy Baroud, an author and a Palestinian political analyst. “The scale of the Israeli provocations poses a great challenge to the pro-Palestinian camp in the Middle East, namely, how to respond with equally strong messages without granting Israel its wish of embroiling the whole region in a destructive war,” said Baroud.

In a televised statement, Netanyahu said, “Citizens of Israel, challenging days lie ahead. Since the strike in Beirut, there are threats sounding from all directions. We are prepared for any scenario and we will stand united and determined against any threat. Israel will exact a heavy price for any aggression against us from any arena.”

Russian think-tank Rybar wrote about "those who were now discussing the raising of the red flag of revenge in Iran and saying that there will definitely be a big war now. The red flag of revenge was raised after the assassination of Qassem Suleimani in 2020. This resulted in a coordinated strike on the Ain al-Assad airbase in the United States, when the Americans got off with a concussion and a fright, sitting in a bunker. The Iranians achieved their goal by loudly proclaiming a crushing victory. The audience believed it.

"During the spring exchange of strikes between Israel and Iran, Tehran's response boiled down to limited use of old weapons: Israel and allies were forced to spend expensive missiles. How much serious damage was done to Israel is unclear, but the Iranians told the world they did good. There is no reason to believe it will be any different now. The Iranians are not fools to go along with the Israeli ultra-orthodox who are only looking to be victimized by the bad Arabs and Iranians treacherously attacked."

At the funeral ceremony of senior leader and No. 2 person in Hezbollah's leadership Fuad Shukr (Mohsen Haji), on 01 August 2024 the Lebanese organization's secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, delivered a speech. Hezbollah's general secretary said that the assassinations of the organization's leaders would not affect the course of the "resistance." At the same time, he announced the entry into a kind of "new phase." Given the experience of previous phases of escalation, as well as Hezbollah's recent announcement that Tel Aviv would be attacked in response to an attack on the Lebanese capital, attempts to shell the city and border areas of Israel can be expected. This will be enough to preserve the image of "fighters against Zionism" in the eyes of the pro-Palestinian public.

02 August 2024

On 02 August 2024 Iranian media begun rebroadcasting the Iran-Iraq war anthem. It seems that they are trying to prepare Iran's population for war. According to Israeli Channel 11, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu intended to fire Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, and the Head of Shin Bet. However, the assassinations in Beirut and Tehran delayed his plans. Netanyahu aimed to establish a new security leadership aligned more closely with his directives.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu contacted the White House, where he held a call with President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, regarding ways to jointly confront a ballistic missile and drone attack. Biden informed him that US forces in the region had made new preparations for their forces in order to thwart any attack threatening Israel, but he asked him to cooperate with US efforts to ease tensions in the region and avoid slipping into a regional war.

Biden criticized the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, and told him that this assassination would not help stop the war tension, but he promised him to put American capabilities in place to prevent the threat to Israel. He asked that the Israeli response to an Iranian attack, whatever it may be, should not be in a way that leads to a dangerous escalation, and Netanyahu replied that he would not normally pass over an attack that causes the death of Israeli civilians.

IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari gave a statement to the press saying that the army is conducting continuous assessments of developments and how the home front is responding, and stressed that there are no special instructions at the present time. He added: “We have a very strong defense network with international allies and partners who have made their own preparations to participate and help Israel confront the challenges and threats. He called for vigilance and adherence to the upcoming instructions.”

Israel announced that it is preparing for the worst-case scenario of an Iranian response to Haniyeh’s assassination, including launching a multi-front attack from Tehran, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Gaza, and even the West Bank simultaneously, or adopting a separate response approach for each of these arms. Although it claims that it is not interested in a comprehensive war, it is taking into account the risk of deteriorating to this extent; therefore, it has declared the highest state of alert since the Iranian response to the assassination of Mohammad Zahedi in Damascus last April, and said that it expects the Iranian response this time to be harsher; because the assassination of Haniyeh in the heart of Tehran is a severe blow to national dignity.

Contrary to White House statements that the risk of escalation between Iran and Israel and the expansion of the war is not inevitable, former National Security Advisor John Bolton confirmed in statements to Asharq Al-Awsat that what we are currently witnessing is indeed an expanded conflict between Israel and Iran following the assassination of Fouad Shukr of Hezbollah deep inside Lebanese territory, and hours later the assassination of the head of Hamas’s political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, deep inside Iranian territory. Bolton, who is considered one of the hawks of the American Republican Party, expected that the Iranian revenge for the killing of Haniyeh would be effective and strong, saying: “There is indeed a conflict between Israel and Iran now after a series of incidents that took place during the past few weeks, from strikes inside Iraq and the targeting and killing of Fuad Shukr, the second man in the Hezbollah militia, and then the assassination of Haniyeh. The question is what form of response will Iran take in its retaliatory response against Israel?”

“Again, it will be very dangerous because when Iran fails to protect people like Ismail Haniyeh during his hosting in Tehran, it puts Supreme Leader Khamenei in a very embarrassing position, so the expectation is that there will be a very strong Iranian response.... I do not think that this time Iran can swallow its pride and ignore what happened, so I think it is likely at this point that Iran will launch a serious response that targets targets in Israel, causes a number of casualties, and causes a lot of damage.”

Regarding the White House officials’ assessment that the expansion of the conflict is not inevitable, Bolton said: “I think the American administration does not want a wider conflict, but from the Israeli perspective, the assessment of the situation is that it has already entered a wider war, as Hezbollah is firing rockets at northern Israel, the Houthi militia is threatening navigation in the Red Sea and international trade routes, and the militias in Iraq and Syria supported by Iran are launching attacks from time to time. Despite the United States’ desire to avoid a wider war, I think that the matter has exceeded the United States’ estimates, and I think that Israel sees itself surrounded from all sides, and I do not think that it will retreat at this stage.”

Iran arrested more than two dozen senior intelligence, military officials & staff of the IRGC guest house where Hamas leader was killed in a sweeping crackdown for the huge security breach. How a bomb could be stashed in the guesthouse remained unclear. Supposedly Israel's Mossad intelligence agency enlisted Iranian security agents from the Ansar-al-Mahdi VIP protection unit to plant explosives at the guesthouse where Haniyeh was staying. Mossad itself is seemingly the source os this tle, which seems designed to generate a witch-hunt within the IRGC. The missile theory raised questions about how Israel evaded Iranian air defenses. But Russian air defenses have proven porous in the face of Ukrainian attacks, and Iran's air defenses are a poor copy of the Russians. Israel has no shortage of stealthy fighters, drones and missiles

Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh was killed by a “short-range projectile” launched from outside his residence in Tehran, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has said. Based on investigations conducted so far, the attack against Haniyeh “was carried out by firing a short-range projectile carrying about 7kg [15.4lb] of explosive materials and launched from outside the guests residency”. The IRGC statement added “This action was designed and implemented by the Zionist regime and supported by the criminal government of America”.

“It’s not clear yet how he was assassinated and any conclusion on that regard will have serious ramifications for what sort of escalation will come next and what narrative is gonna be produced,” security analyst H.A.Hellyer told Al Jazeera, noting that there are two competing narratives. Citing unnamed officials, including Middle Eastern and Iranian sources, a number of Western outlets had previously reported that Haniyeh was killed by a bomb planted months ago in his accommodation in Tehran. “There is a difference between these two types of scenarios,” Hellyer says, adding that a missile would suggest that “a security breach may have taken place in terms of knowing exactly where to hit, but it’s a different security breach than if a bomb was smuggled inside Iran.” Al Jazeera’s Resul Sardar said that although there is a “war on narratives” about how Haniyeh was assassinated, any version of events represents a failure by the Iranian security services.

A source close to Hezbollah told AFP that Iranian officials met in Tehran on Wednesday 31 July 2024 with representatives of the "axis of resistance," a loose alliance of Tehran-backed groups hostile to Israel, to discuss their next steps. "Two scenarios were discussed: a simultaneous response from Iran and its allies or a staggered response from each party," said the source, A leader of the Islamic Resistance of Iraq, a coalition of pro-Iran groups, informed AFP that "Iran will lead the initial response with the participation of Iraqi, Yemeni, and Syrian factions, targeting military objectives. This will be followed by a second wave of attacks from Hezbollah." The source further indicated that Hezbollah might target civilians to avenge the deaths of three women and two children in the strike that killed Shukr in Beirut.

CNN, citing US officials, reported that the Axis of Resistance response might include attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria by Iranian-backed proxy militias in the region. Since October 7, over 200 attacks by Iranian proxies have targeted US troops across the region with multiple deaths and scores of injuries. The aircraft carrier strike group led by the USS Abraham Lincoln will replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt strike group in the region, but the TR strike group might hand around if needed. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered additional ballistic missile defense-capable cruisers and destroyers to the Middle East and areas under US European Command, as well as a new fighter squadron to the Middle East. The US embassy in Lebanon has urged its citizens to leave the country on “any ticket available” amid rising tensions in the region.

Days after deploying 12 warships, amphibious assault teams, and more than 4,000 Marines and sailors, the Pentagon said Austin had “ordered changes to the military posture to improve the protection of U.S. forces, increase support for the defense of Israel, and ensure readiness to respond to a variety of contingencies.”

Since October 8, 2023, the support fronts of the resistance axis have successively entered the Battle of the Flood of Al-Aqsa. The war witnessed, over the course of ten months, stages in which it reached a climax that almost turned it into a major or comprehensive war, if the slightest mistake or miscalculation occurred by any of the warring parties. The possibility that things will escalate into a major war from the first moment of the war is among the considered possibilities, even if we assume that no one wants to slip into it.

The first stage of the escalation was when the IDF assassinated the second man in the Hamas movement, the martyr Sheikh Saleh al-Arouri, in the southern suburb, on January 2, 2024, which resulted in a response four days later from the Islamic Resistance, in which it restored consideration to the deterrence equations, and bombed the Meron Air Base for the first time.

The second station in the escalation was when Israeli aircraft launched a raid on the Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1, 2024, which resulted in the martyrdom of a group of Iranian Revolutionary Guard officers, headed by the martyred General Zahedi, commander of the Quds Force. This time, things almost got out of hand, and the entire world held its breath for days awaiting the Iranian response, which came on April 14 with more than 300 missiles and drones, to be the first strike in terms of accuracy, size and capabilities in the history of the conflict with Israel, and at the very least since 1973.

The third station was after Ansar Allah targeted Tel Aviv with a Jaffa drone at dawn on Friday, July 19, 2024. This quickly prompted an Israeli response to oil and vital facilities in Hodeidah, in a message that Israel wanted to send to Iran in particular, that whoever reaches Hodeidah is able to reach Tehran.From the Israeli point of view, that the account has not yet been closed with the Islamic Republic, and the image of Israeli deterrence in the face of Iran’s prestige is shattered.

The Majdal Shams incident and the repercussions that followed were the fatal mistake that Israel got itself into, which led to the explosion of all fronts and took it out of the support phase and into a new phase in which the axis is waging an open war against all possibilities. Despite Hezbollah’s haste to reject the Israeli accusation and deny responsibility for the incident, after an internal investigation conducted by the party as announced by its Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, this did not prevent Israel from escalation and crossing the red lines and all the rules of engagement that were previously in effect. Netanyahu sensed this was right moment to reap the fruits by cutting off the heads of the resistance in Lebanon and Palestine. This feeling of euphoria and pride in victory, which Netanyahu wanted to use to indicate the level of internal tension and to present an image of a victory that has been lost for ten months, increased the danger to a the new strategic challenge.

Israel seemingly wanted to escalate as an escape forward, but it miscalculated the strategic risks as a result of crossing the red lines. The two assassination operations carried out by Israel in the southern suburb and Tehran, in addition to its previous bombing of Hodeidah, passing through the American bombing of the sites of the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades in Jurf al-Sakhar in Babylon, would not be allowed to pass without a harsh response that restores the existing balance of deterrence.

1. - The Yemeni front: The Israelis crossed a red line with direct participation by striking oil and vital facilities, which resulted in civilian deaths and injuries.
2. - The Iraqi front: The American bombing of the headquarters of the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades reshuffled the cards again, after the Iraqi factions had agreed with the Iraqi government to neutralize American forces from their operations, for internal Iraqi considerations, and because there was a schedule that was made with the government for the withdrawal of these forces from Iraq within specific time frames.
3. - The Lebanese front: breaking red lines in three dimensions, in terms of location in the southern suburb of Beirut, the stronghold of the resistance and the capital of the state, in terms of victims, residential areas were targeted and a number of civilian martyrs and wounded fell, including children and women, and in terms of the nature of the targeted target, by assassinating the actual supervisor of Hezbollah’s confrontation with Israel following the Al-Aqsa Flood, Mohsen Shukr, the high-ranking leadership figure, who was considered the second most important figure on the military level.
4. - The Iranian front: A multi-target strike in terms of location in the Iranian capital, and in terms of the nature of the target, the head of Hamas’s political bureau, the martyr Ismail Haniyeh, and in terms of prestige, he is a dear guest who has arrived in the Islamic Republic. This means that the strike challenges Iranian prestige and even affects Iranian honor, as His Eminence the Secretary-General expressed.

What does this mean? And what will be the response options for the resistance fronts?

1. - As for Iran, considering imposing prestige and taking revenge for the assassination of its guest in the capital, allows Iran a very large margin of maneuver, reaching the limits of striking Tel Aviv within the framework of a symmetrical response.
2. - Hezbollah will not be bound by the limits of the place, nor by the limits of avoiding civilians, after the assassination carried out by the enemy exceeded the symbolism of the place, and the sanctity of the presence of civilians at the targeted location was not respected. Add that killing first-tier leaders gives the party the margin to respond to the command headquarters of the enemy army.
3. - The American strike in Iraq will free the Iraqi resistance factions from the commitment they made to the Iraqi government to avoid American forces present within American bases in Iraq. In addition, the Iraqi front entered into full coordination with Ansar Allah, and it will inevitably participate in this context in the upcoming response from the axis fronts.
4. - The natural right guaranteed by the principle of responding to aggression in kind will give Ansar Allah the margin to strike civilian targets that affect economic or oil facilities, or those of a vital nature such as power generation stations and the like.
5. - This is the most important point in understanding the nature of the axis of resistance and the principle of the unity of arenas, where each arena finds its role in working alongside the other arenas with what it can offer within the opportunities available to it, and in a way that serves the general goal, which is to reach a cessation of the war on Gaza. Therefore, the above division does not mean that each arena becomes bound by a margin that restricts it and does not allow it to exceed it or share it with other arenas, but rather that all margins of response, based on the principle of the unity of arenas and the unity of the battle’s goal, become intertwined with each other, and each front is concerned with what it can achieve from those goals, with an additional advantage imposed by the balances of deterrence now, which is the inevitability of Iran and Hezbollah’s participation with the lion’s share in terms of quantity and quality of missiles and drones.

Accordingly, the margin of response of the resistance axis will be rich and diverse, in terms of the nature of the targets (military, economic, vital facilities...), and in terms of the geographical location, where there is no deterrent ceiling, even if it was the capital of the entity itself. It remains for the axis leaders to choose the place and nature of those targets, in a manner consistent with what the field and logistical conditions and the higher interest impose. The most important question remains, will this inevitable, harsh, painful and tearful response of the resistance axis lead to a comprehensive war in the region?

The answer depends on how the Israelis and the Americans deal with the axis’ response, and whether the Americans will allow Israel to slip into the furnace of a major and comprehensive war. After the axis’ response, the ball will be in the court of America and Israel, which are the two main parties concerned with expanding the ball of fire or extinguishing it. It is worth noting that a report was leaked via the Axios news website from an American official that Biden informed Netanyahu via a phone call “that the United States will help Israel respond to any Iranian attack, but he warned him that if he escalates again, he should not rely on the United States to save him.”

Reports published by American newspapers confirm that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is ignoring calls for calm in the Middle East, as Israel expands its attacks in Gaza and in countries in the region. What is happening in the Middle East reveals Israel's "open appetite for risk" as it tries to restore the "deterrent power" of its army, while the region approaches a "regional war," according to an analysis published by the Wall Street Journal. Israel wants to compensate for the "security failure" that occurred on October 7, and therefore seeks controllable "responses."

The New York Times confirmed in a report that Netanyahu is working to "accelerate the pace of war and fuel the far-right revolution." While the US administration and its allies are trying to secure a ceasefire and release agreement for the hostages, it seems that Israel has "gone off track", making the agreement an unattainable goal. The newspaper points out that these attacks came after his visit to Washington, during which he pledged to continue the war against Hamas, where Israel is killing and imprisoning thousands of Palestinians, without "any clear idea of the end" of the war.

Israeli newspaper Haaretz said that the killing of Hamas's political bureau chief, Haniyeh, confirms that the problem of holding Israeli hostages is not at the top of Netanyahu's agenda. Haniyeh played a key role in negotiations to reach a truce in Gaza through mediators in Qatar, which led months of behind-the-scenes contacts alongside Egypt and the United States.

The newspaper believes that the prime minister is interested in continuing the war in Gaza without any change in the allocation of forces operating there against Hamas and without withdrawing forces from Netzarim and Philadelphi, the two passages in the enclave now occupied by Israeli forces. She explained that despite the risk of escalation, Haniyeh's killing has improved the position of the Israeli Prime Minister, and he may use this to dismiss Defense Minister Yoav Galant, who supports a deal that includes a ceasefire and the return of the hostages.

Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi said Israel would respond "with great force" to any attack, according to an army statement. Israeli Defense Minister Galant met with his British counterpart, John Healey, where he called for the formation of an international coalition to support "Israel's defense against Iran and its proxies," according to Galant's office.

03 August 2024

Iran plans to attack Israel on Tisha B’Av, which begins on August 12 and ends on August 13, Sky News Arabia reported 03 August 2024. Tisha B’Av, the 9th day of the month of Av (August 12-13, 2024), is the saddest day on the Jewish calendar, on which Jews fast, deprive themselves and pray. It is the culmination of the Three Weeks, a period of time during which jews mark the destruction of the Holy Temple in Jerusalem.

Both Holy Temples in Jerusalem were destroyed on this date. The First Temple was burned by the Babylonians in 423 BCE and the Second Temple fell to the Romans in 69 CE. Torah study is limited to the few allowed topics that are of a sad nature or pertain to the Temples’ destruction. Late in the afternoon, a “separation meal,” seudah hamafseket, is eaten. It consists of bread and a hard-boiled egg dipped in ashes, accompanied by water. Many communities have the custom to clean the house and wash the floors after midday, in anticipation of the Redemption, which jews await. Midrash staes that that Mashiach was born on Tisha B'Av.

The UK called on its nationals to depart Lebanon immediately. France called on its nationals "still in Iran" to leave the country "as soon as possible" due to the "increased" risk of military escalation. It also increased security in areas inhabited by French Jews.

The Jordanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates stated "In light of the developments taking place in the region, and out of concern for the safety of citizens, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates urges citizens not to travel to the sisterly Lebanese Republic at the present time, and also requests Jordanian citizens residing and present in Lebanon to leave Lebanese territory as soon as possible. The official spokesperson for the Ministry, Ambassador Dr. Sufian Al-Qudah, stressed that this recommendation comes out of a precautionary stance against any developments in light of the regional situation, and out of concern for the safety of citizens. Ambassador Qudah renewed his call to Jordanian citizens residing and present in Lebanon to take the utmost caution and care.

Security services had arrested 30 Iranians and 50 foreigners on charges of involvement in the assassination of the Palestinian leader. The Iranian investigation authorities arrested about 30 people, including senior security figures, in addition to about 50 foreigners, most of whom were Afghans who entered the country unofficially on suspicion of involvement in the operation.

Foreign Policy writer Stephen Cook points out that the only party that wanted a ceasefire in Gaza was the United States, which was “manipulated.” The Israeli government is ignoring Western calls, including from Washington, to end the war in Gaza, saying that Israel will "end the war on its own terms and timetable." The analysis published by Foreign Policy magazine indicates that the “ceasefire” in the Gaza war was not imminent at all, as the negotiations that lasted for months were a “sham” as the Israelis had no intention of withdrawing from the fighting in Gaza. In contrast, Hamas believes it is winning the war by dragging Israel into a "heated conflict" that has "exacerbated conflicts," damaging Israel's international reputation.

He points out that the Israeli strikes in the Middle East may mean that Israel is "gambling" on escalation, which could plunge the region into a large-scale war. Despite statements by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that anyone who threatens Israel "will pay a heavy price," what is happening may not lead to "improving the security situation in Israel."

The disagreement between Israel and the United States highlights the tension in the security relationship between them, and everything Washington does for Israel seems to be only "partially" sufficient, according to the newspaper. The analysis says that this "does not mean that the Israelis are deliberately trying to drag Washington into war," but the nature of the relationship between them encourages Israel to "gamble" in the region, and regardless of what Israel does, it knows that any American president "is obliged to provide assistance to Israel.

A senior source in the Iranian Supreme National Security Council revealed to Al-Jarida of Kuwait that an American security delegation traveled to Iran with Omani mediation to convey a message of “calming and warning” to Tehran’s leaders, to avoid a major war planned by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Some observers question the plausibility of this entire report, which is explicitly based on a single sorces whose intent [should he exist] may be in whole or in part to influence rather than inform. The source said that the American delegation visited the Islamic Republic on a private plane that took off from Turkey and landed at Payam Airport in the city of Karaj, west of the Iranian capital, on 01 Augut 2024, confirming that a two-hour meeting was held between American and Iranian officials at the airport under the supervision of the Revolutionary Guard, before the guests returned to Ankara.

The delegation informed Iran of opening a window for a “face-saving response” after Haniyeh’s lightning strike and warned it against the “trap of revenge” He added that the American security delegation confirmed to the Iranians again that the United States was not aware of the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, and that President Joe Biden was very upset with Netanyahu's unilateral action, and that the Americans had reached the conclusion that the latter's presence in power does not serve global security and peace, after he became out of control. He explained that the delegation stated that the Biden administration wants to make fundamental changes and draw new regional equations that exclude the current Israeli Prime Minister, before the end of its term, and he pointed out that Netanyahu "is trying to escape forward and create escalation with the aim of dragging the entire region into a comprehensive battle."

The Biden administration reportedly provided the Iranians with a list of Mossad agents [ed note : "hard to believe"] and invited them to the nuclear understanding that angered Tel Aviv [ed note : "easy to believe"]. The source explained that the delegation confirmed to the Iranians that Netanyahu had revealed his plan to a number of senior Zionist lobbies during his recent visit to Washington, where he informed them of his belief that the time had come for a major war, which does not only mean Israel and the United States against Iran and its allies, but all the countries of the region, including the Arab and Gulf states, Turkey and African countries.

Netanyahu reportedly claimed that the outbreak of this major war would force everyone to sit at one table, to accept a comprehensive settlement that includes “Israel’s right to exist and its recognition by all in exchange for a comprehensive peace for all parties.” The source stated that the Americans leaked parts of Netanyahu’s plan, which he reviewed with the leaders of the Zionist lobbies, in which Netanyahu told them that during that war, all the infrastructure of the countries of the region could be destroyed before reaching a comprehensive settlement, followed by American companies benefiting from the large-scale reconstruction process, in addition to the possibility of forcing Iran to submit to American will or “be wiped out of existence.”

The source said that the delegation told the Iranians that Netanyahu did not hear what he liked in Washington, as the White House insisted that it wanted to stop the Gaza war quickly and achieve a comprehensive calm in the region, but Israel assassinated Haniyeh with the aim of blowing up the prisoner exchange and truce negotiations. The source said the delegation indicated that the US government would be forced to defend the Jewish state again if Iran attacked it in revenge, which would represent a new opportunity for Netanyahu to escape pressure, and therefore the United States hopes that Tehran will not fall into the Israeli Prime Minister's trap.

He added that the American side reiterated that Washington does not want war with Tehran, seeks to resolve differences through diplomatic channels, and awaits a response regarding the proposal to return to the nuclear agreement. He explained that the delegation believed that if Tehran accepted to return to the nuclear agreement, this would represent a more “painful blow” to the hard-right coalition in Israel, regarding launching a military strike, especially since the Democratic presidential candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris is ahead of her Republican competitor, Donald Trump, who is known for his more hardline positions towards Iran.

He explained that the Americans confirmed their readiness to suspend a package of economic sanctions if Iran agreed not to attack Tel Aviv, and if the issue could be limited to saving face, the two sides could agree on a coordinated process to defuse the crisis that threatens to blow up the region.

In contrast, the source said the Iranian side refused to inform the Americans of any plans for the expected broad retaliatory response, and said that it would submit their message to the highest leadership to study it before responding to it.

According to Western officials, no party in the world can expect a ceasefire, because Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not want one, and will continue the war until after the US elections. In light of these facts, political contacts are being made to contain the situation and not give Netanyahu any chance to lure everyone into a regional war.

Sources reveal that the Americans are activating their diplomacy to prevent escalation, especially Netanyahu's failure to use the Iranian response as a pretext to ignite the fronts more. If they succeed, this does not mean stopping the war, but rather its continuation at this pace for a long time.

The Americans say that they will defend Israel in confronting Iranian missiles, and according to the data, they expect a moderate response that will not be massive in size or formal. The Americans expect Israeli casualties, with emphasis on not killing civilians, and after that, if Israel decides to respond, Washington will not be concerned with participating in it, but only with defending it.

Behind the scenes there is talk about setting red lines between the Americans and the Iranians, which include

1. not causing a number of civilian casualties,
2. not targeting civilian facilities,
3. that the targets be military,
4. that the strike not be continuous and successive, but rather a single strike,
5. that the regional attack on Israel not be aimed at major destruction in it, but rather that the regional participation be similar to the symbolism of a single strike, and not that it be a regional attack that simulates the outbreak of a war on multiple fronts against Israel, because if that happens, America will find itself forced to respond and defend in confronting and attacking after it.

The Americans are stressing that the strike be a single strike, and stop so that it is not forced to be drawn into strikes and counter-strikes. If these points are settled or if these lines are played out, Iran will face a fundamental challenge, which is that if its response is not serious and deterrent, Netanyahu may continue to carry out assassinations and continue his provocations with security and military operations, in order to achieve a kind of breaking of the security and moral balance.

Therefore, Iran cannot be satisfied with that, which necessitates searching for a serious strike capable of deterring him.

However, on the other hand, there are also other Iranian calculations that indicate that if the Israelis decide to respond to these strikes with violent strikes, and Netanyahu resorts to carrying out similar operations to target the port of Hodeidah, and strike similar targets in Iran, i.e. targeting public facilities and ports, then this will have very difficult effects on Tehran.

There are those who read the Israelis’ strike on the port of Hodeidah as a model that can be applied in different places, and a direct message to the Iranians, and this is one aspect of the negotiations that the Americans are maneuvering around.

Canada advised its citizens to avoid all travel to Israel, saying armed conflict in the region threatens security. The Canadian government said in travel advisories it issued to raise the travel warning level to Israel that "the security situation could deteriorate further without warning". “If armed conflict intensifies, it may affect your ability to depart by commercial means. It may lead to travel disruptions, including airspace closures, flight cancellations and diversions,” she added.