Operation Iron Swords - Day 90 - 04 January 2024
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NEW - Operations NEW - Operations Maps NEW - By-Standers NEW - Axis of Resistance NEW - Allied for Democracy UPDATED - Oasis of Martyrs UPDATED - Hostages |
Security sources told Amaq Agency that two Islamic State fighters carried out a double martyrdom attack. The sources added that the martyrdom fighters were able to reach the crowd, which included thousands of Shiites who were performing Shiite rituals nearby. The sources explained that the first martyr detonated his explosive belt among the Shiite crowds, followed by the second martyr detonating his belt about 20 minutes after the first explosion.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi had blamed Israel. “I warn the Zionist regime, do not doubt that you will pay a heavy price for this crime and the crimes you have committed,” Raisi said in a televised address. Raisi's political deputy, Mohammad Jamshidi, also blamed Israel and the US. Iran had blamed Sunni terror groups like the Islamic State in Khorasan, also known as ISIS-K, for previous terror attacks.
Iranian state media reported suicide bombers probably carried out the attacks. The state-run IRNA news agency reported surveillance footage from the route to the commemoration at Kerman's Martyrs Cemetery clearly showed a male suicide bomber detonating explosives. "The cause of the second blast was most likely the same," IRNA reported, quoting what it called an "informed source."
Iran expert at United Against Nuclear Iran, Kasra Aarabi, told DW, "that attack itself certainly has all the hallmarks of ISIS operations in Iran." He said that would suit the government in Tehran. "It is likely that the regime will blame ISIS that will enable the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] IRGC to respond," he said, "It also domestically has given the regime a pretext to further clamp down on the Iranian people," Aarabi added.
In some Muslima circles, it is believed that Israel created ISIS to destroy Egypt, Syria, Iraq and Libya. and that ISIS leaders are Mossad agents. This conspiracy theory notes that ISIS only targets the enemies of America and Israel, claiming that ISIS == Israeli Secret Intelligence Services.
One proponent of this theory noted "Friendly reminder that ISIS and other terrorist groups were created by the west and israel for two reasons. 1. Propaganda against muslims 2. Gives the US the greenlight to invade muslim countries with no repercussions. After all, most of ISIS's victims were muslims themselves." Another such believer wrote "I don't deny that ISIS was a genius idea by the Zionists to destroy the Middle East, ignite civil wars, and distort Islam. I respect the intelligence of the Zionists, but unfortunately they don't respect our intelligence after their plans were exposed and they are still continuing."
The assassination of Saleh Al-Arouri, the most prominent founder of the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades and deputy head of its political bureau, along with two leaders of the Al-Qassam Brigades and 4 members of the movement, is the first of a Hamas leader outside the occupied Palestinian territories since the Al-Aqsa Flood operation on October 7 last year. Israeli officials have repeatedly threatened to assassinate Hamas leaders in Palestine, Lebanon, Turkey and Qatar. Al-Arouri had received a direct threat from the head of the Israeli occupation government, Benjamin Netanyahu, in August 2023, when he threatened him with assassination, accusing him of being behind Hamas attacks in the West Bank . Yedioth Ahronoth described him as “the head of the snake” at the time.
The Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) confirmed that Al-Arouri's assassination showed Israeli intentions to expand the conflict, and pledged to “continue the path to liberating Palestine.” The official in charge of Hamas's national relations in Lebanon, Ayman Shanaa, told Al Jazeera Net that the assassination of Al-Arouri reveals "the aggressive intentions of the Zionist enemy to expand the scope of its targeting of the movement's leadership," stressing, "We have become accustomed to his treachery and cowardice, and he was not satisfied with his aggression against Gaza and on the internal squares, but rather Move abroad."
He explained that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened more than once to assassinate Hamas leaders abroad “to escape from its internal predicament.” Shana said, “We dealt with these threats very seriously and took precautionary measures, but God decided the matter, and we, as resistance fighters, were destined to shed innocent blood on the path to liberating Palestine.” .
The Hamas leader stressed that "the terrorist assassination will not deter us from continuing on the path to liberating Palestine. We are proceeding with the resistance project and assassinations will not deter us. Our goal is to liberate Palestine and expel the occupation."
Attention was drawn to the speech of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah at six in the evening at the honorary celebration held by the party on the fourth anniversary of the assassination of the Commander of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Qassem Soleimani, and Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis (Deputy Chairman of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces).
Regarding what they expect from Nasrallah's speech, Shanaa told Al Jazeera Net, "There are no specific expectations... but we will wait for what Nasrallah will say, to build on what it requires." The Hamas official warned that "in any case, the crime of Al-Arouri's assassination will not go unpunished," noting at the same time that the movement's leaders have taken more precautionary and preventive measures in the Lebanese area.
The assassination of Saleh Al-Arouri, constituted a major shock at the Lebanese and Palestinian levels, in an operation in which Israel crossed the red lines previously announced by Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. The assassination, which Hezbollah confirmed would not go unpunished, came in implementation of Israeli threats to assassinate Palestinian resistance leaders inside and outside occupied Palestine.
The southern suburb is considered the main stronghold of Hezbollah, and is inhabited by about one million people. It has a prominent presence of the party, in addition to its official headquarters, the offices of its deputies and leaders, and their homes. It is also where it organizes its various activities, which means that the goal of the Israeli operation is twofold: to assassinate senior Palestinian leaders of Hamas on the one hand, And striking, threatening, and breaching Hezbollah’s stronghold and its political, popular, and security incubator on the other hand.
With Israel committing what Nasrallah personally warned it about, how will Hezbollah respond to the operation? The assassination of Al-Arouri came shortly before Nasrallah’s expected speech. Israeli Channel 13 claimed that they were going to meet tomorrow, as they had a strong relationship, and there are many pictures that brought them together. His assassination also came hours after an Israeli official announced that the forces withdrawing from... Gaza will prepare for a possible second front in Lebanon.
Although it is the harshest operation in the suburb since the July 2006 war, it is also reminiscent of a specific operation carried out by two Israeli drones in the southern suburb in August 2019, when a raid struck near a Hezbollah media relations office, and was limited to material damage. Netanyahu asked his government ministers not to comment on the assassination of Al-Arouri, and his officials were quoted as saying that the operation targeted Al-Arouri and not Hezbollah or the Lebanese government.
There are successive Lebanese, Palestinian and Arab positions denouncing the assassination of Al-Arouri, the most prominent of which was internally the position of caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati , who said that “a new Israeli crime aims to bring Lebanon into a new phase of confrontations after the ongoing daily attacks in the south.” Meanwhile, Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib instructed the submission of two strongly worded protests to the United Nations regarding the dangerous Israeli aggression on the suburb and the attempt to lure Lebanon into a comprehensive escalation.
In a lengthy statement in which Hezbollah mourned Al-Arouri, the party said that the crime of assassinating him and his fellow martyrs in the heart of the suburb “is a dangerous assault on Lebanon, its people, its security, sovereignty, and its resistance, and the political and security messages it contains are extremely symbolic and significant, and a dangerous development in the course of the war between the enemy and the axis of resistance.” We in Hezbollah affirm that the crime will never go without response or punishment.”
Observers believe that the assassination of Al-Arouri brought the confrontation between the party and Israel into a new and dangerous turn after the latter crossed the red lines of the rules of engagement between the two parties, as the pace of the confrontation has increased daily since the eighth of last October, since Hezbollah announced its support of the Palestinian resistance in a war that occupied the Israeli occupation forces on its front. North.
As the strikes between them continued, the number of Hezbollah martyrs exceeded 130, which raised questions about the nature of Israeli espionage and tracking in Lebanon digitally, reconnaissance, and through communications.
Many believe that the party is facing a test, as Nasrallah repeatedly threatened that any assassination of a leader in the Lebanese or Palestinian resistance inside Lebanon and the Lebanese interior would be met with a clear Israeli response.
The writer and political analyst Ibrahim Bayram told Al Jazeera Net that the assassination of Al-Arouri was expected because he was “one of the three heads orchestrated by Al-Qassam with Yahya Al-Sinwar and Muhammad Al-Deif, and he received several threats,” while the writer and political analyst Tawfiq Shoman says that his assassination is an unexpected dangerous escalation from Israel because it ventured to cross the lines. The Reds are anticipating the kind of punishment that the party promised.
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Shoman believes that the operation will not pass without a major response, because it put Nasrallah's warnings to the test, and "any limited response means Israel will once again dare to carry out similar operations inside Lebanon." But Bayram believes that southern Lebanon is witnessing a real war, and that its development deep into Lebanon is not an easy decision, “which prompted Israel to promote that it struck a Palestinian target, not a Lebanese one.”
Bayram does not rule out that Hezbollah will accommodate the operation within its policy of not allowing Israel to take it wherever it wants, “in exchange for directing a harsh blow to Israel for its direct threat to its security and political apparatus within its popular stronghold.” Bayram recalls that Israel is unable to open a wide front with Lebanon without direct American military support, at a time when the US Navy announced hours ago that the aircraft carrier "Ford" will return to its base in the United States, after months of stationing in the Mediterranean Sea to protect Israel following Operation Al-Aqsa Flood.
Bayram believes that the withdrawal of the American fleet is evidence of Washington’s efforts to contain tension in the region, and a reflection of its new disagreement with Israel in managing the war, which puts the latter in an awkward position. But Shoman believes that Israel's defeats may push it to venture with Lebanon, and he says, "Nasrallah may change the titles of his speech to announce a heated position, because the Al-Arouri assassination, in its form, content, and location, can only be dealt with as a dangerous and exceptional escalation."
Bayram believes that, by assassinating Al-Arouri, Israel is looking for an impossible image of victory in the Gaza Strip, and it may be a prelude to the beginning of its exit from a war that it is not ready to expand in scope, “unless its choice is suicidal by igniting a wide war with Lebanon, which is what the various international and regional parties, their allies and opponents, do not want.”
Dr. Joseph Vitsanakis, an expert in intelligence and security affairs at Coastal Carolina University, pointed out that the killing of Al-Arouri serves Israel’s goals but does not correspond to Washington’s goals. Vitsanakisspoke about three reasons that make it unlikely that the United States played any role in the assassination of Saleh Al-Arouri, the leader of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) , in Beirut. The White House had confirmed, through the official spokesman for the National Security Council, John Kirby, that the United States had no close or distant connection to the attack that led to the death of Al-Arouri, and the White House’s confirmation was consistent with the estimates of American security experts that Al Jazeera Net spoke to.
In his press briefing at the White House, Kirby said, “Al-Arouri was classified as a terrorist and no one should cry over his departure.” In 2018, the US government placed Al-Arouri’s name on what its State Department calls “the most wanted list,” and allocated $5 million to anyone who provides information leading to locating or arresting him.
The US Department's announcement stated, "Saleh Al-Arouri is the deputy of the political bureau of the Hamas terrorist organization and one of the founders of the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades , the military wing of Hamas." Washington accused him of financing and directing Hamas' military operations in the West Bank, and that his name was linked to several Israeli attacks and kidnappings. It pointed out that "Al-Arouri claimed Hamas responsibility for the attack that occurred on June 12, 2014, in which 3 young Israelis were kidnapped and killed in the West Bank, including the American-Israeli citizen with dual citizenship, Naftali Frankel."
The US State Department announcement indicated that Al-Arouri publicly bragged about the murders, describing it as a “heroic operation.” In September 2015, the US Treasury designated him as a “global terrorist” under Executive Order No. (13224).
In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, intelligence and security affairs expert Vitsanakis confirmed that he ruled out any operational link between the United States and the killing of Al-Arouri, for three reasons:
First, the US government has been very clear since last October 7 that its strategic and primary concern is to contain the war between Israel and Hamas, and limit it to the Gaza Strip only (if possible), or in the worst possible scenario within Gaza, Israel and the West Bank, and that Al-Arouri’s killing may Hezbollah is pushing to enter this war, something Washington is desperately trying to avoid.
Second, Al-Arouri was in fact a major point of contact between the leadership of Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard , and the fact that he and his team (6 of whom were killed) were working on the ground in the southern suburbs, Hezbollah’s stronghold , is a testament to how close they were to the party’s senior leadership, and to It is likely that the Americans hoped that Al-Arouri and other senior Hamas officials in Lebanon would be able to act as channels for backdoor negotiations with Hezbollah, and through them with Iran, and his assassination eliminated that channel.
Third, Al-Arouri actively participated in the reconciliation negotiations between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, and his presence could have helped facilitate negotiations between Hamas and Fatah regarding the post-war governance landscape in Gaza. There is no doubt that his killing will make it easier for Hamas hardliners to rule out any negotiations. With the Fatah movement and the Palestinian Authority, which they consider to be complicit with Israel in Gaza.
Professor Vitsanakis pointed out that the killing of Al-Arouri serves Israel's goals, but is not compatible with Washington's goals. He told Al Jazeera Net that this operation ultimately achieves three main Israeli goals:
First, the possibility of a back-channel discussion between the Americans and Iran becomes more difficult.
Secondly, the possibility of a rapprochement between Hamas and Fatah will also become more remote, which in turn reduces the chances of reaching a security arrangement based on a role for the Fatah movement after the war in Gaza, which is linked to the desires of the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Third, it sends a message to the Americans that Israel will not hesitate to escalate the war, and to confront some of the silent criticism from Washington regarding its handling of the war. While Israel is actually indicating its intention to force Washington to take a stronger position in its favor, which is what the Biden administration will be forced to do if Hezbollah responds with a large-scale attack in the coming days.
At the conclusion of his interview with Al Jazeera Net, Vitsanakis noted, "It is very possible that the Israelis informed the Americans of the attack on Al-Arouri, but that most likely happened shortly before the drone strike that killed him and his team, or shortly after that." He adds, "It was a polite way of saying, 'We are informing you out of respect, but we are not asking for your permission,' and this will likely serve as a model for how Israel operates regarding assassinations abroad from now on."
Israel entered a state of maximum alert on all fronts and throughout the country, following the assassination of the leader of the Hamas movement, Saleh Al-Arouri. The Israeli security establishment was preparing for a scenario of a wide war on the fronts of Lebanon and the Gaza Strip , as the internal front in Israel is preparing for Hezbollah’s response with long-range missiles deep inside Israel, as well as for the infiltration of fighters from Lebanon into the border towns and the Upper Galilee.
The "war cabinet" was kept in permanent session at the headquarters of the Israeli Ministry of Security in Tel Aviv, with the participation of the leaders of the Army Chief of Staff, the security and military services, and the leaders of the Shin Bet and Mossad intelligence services, where the expected developments on the battlefields in the south and the Upper Galilee will be discussed. After the assassination.
Israel did not rule out paying a heavy price, as it is preparing for a broad response with missiles from the north as well as from Gaza, where statements are heard at the top of the political and military leadership to the effect that the person who ordered the assassination of Al-Arouri took into account that there would be a reaction, and was prepared for all possibilities, including a response. A smart, limited act or an all-out war, according to what Israeli Channel 11 reported.
The Israeli army prepared for the possibility of a strong response from Hezbollah, as the political level does not rule out that the Israeli depth will be bombed with long-range missiles. The Walla website quoted a senior Israeli official as saying: “Israel is preparing for a sharp response from Hezbollah to the assassination of Al-Arouri.”
In anticipation of the possibility of armed forces infiltrating the settlements in the Western Negev and the Upper Galilee, launching attacks and launching rockets from the Lebanon and Gaza fronts, instructions were issued to Israeli police officers throughout the country to be on alert for any emergency.
Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper's police correspondent, Liran Temari, reported that the Israeli police high command sent a message to police officers in various parts of the country after the assassination of Saleh Al-Arouri, instructing them to prepare to launch missiles and infiltrate the settlements. Instructions were also issued to the police to prepare guard teams in more than 600 Israeli towns that were formed after the Battle of the “Al-Aqsa Flood,” and to issue instructions for them to be ready to deploy and participate in protecting the home front from any armed attacks and intense missile barrages.
Israel has not yet claimed official responsibility for the assassination. Senior Israeli government officials told the Yedioth Ahronoth website after Al-Arouri's assassination, "Finally, a qualitative assassination. Every Hamas leader is destined for assassination and death." This comes as Israel has not yet claimed official responsibility for the assassination, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office has instructed ministers not to conduct interviews and not to comment on the assassination.
The Prime Minister's Office refused to comment on the assassination that took place in Beirut, which is the first of a senior Hamas official outside Gaza since the "Al-Aqsa Flood" battle on October 7, 2023. Government Secretary Yossi Fuchs ordered the ministers not to speak or give interviews about the incident, and the Likud spokeswoman ordered the party’s Knesset members not to conduct interviews without prior approval during the next 24 hours or until further notice.
However, in an implicit indication of the Israeli government’s admission of being behind the Al-Arouri assassination, in an effort to promote some of the achievements of Israeli society, in light of the failure to achieve the goals of the war on Gaza, members of the government and coalition parties raced to brag about Al-Arouri’s assassination, and Hamas leaders threatened the same fate.
A member of the Knesset from the ruling Likud Party, Danny Danon, wrote a tweet on the “X” platform in which he claimed “responsibility” - on behalf of Israel - for Al-Arawi’s assassination. Danon, a member of the parliamentary Foreign Affairs and Security Committee, added in his tweet, “I congratulate the Israeli army, Shin Bet, Mossad and security forces on the assassination of senior Hamas official Salah Al-Arouri in Beirut. Everyone who participated in the October 7 massacre should know that we will reach them and hold them accountable.”
Meanwhile, a member of the Knesset from the Religious Zionism Alliance, Michal Waldiger, seemed more clear about Israel’s responsibility for the assassination of Al-Arouri, and said in her tweet: “The Israeli army and security forces received an order, and they did not rest for a single moment.” "All the damned will be doomed to death. Israel does not forget."
Previously, the Israeli Minister of Finance, Bezalel Smotrich, responded and wrote in a tweet: “Yes, all your enemies, O Israel, will perish,” while the Minister of the Diaspora, Amichai Shkli, wrote in a tweet: “I will pursue my enemies and eliminate them, and I will not return until they are all eliminated.” Likud MK Boaz Bismuth, who is close to Prime Minister Netanyahu, tweeted on the “X” platform, saying: “Acts of injustice will not go unpunished. The list is long, but we will count all Hamas leaders.”
In an additional indication that confirms Israel's responsibility for the assassination of Al-Arouri, the Arab world affairs correspondent for the newspaper "Israel Today", Shahar Kleiman, wrote an analysis entitled "After the assassination of Al-Arouri... who is in the circle of targeting Israel?" According to the Israeli journalist's estimates regarding the political and military leadership of Hamas who are on the assassination list, Al-Arouri is one of a number of senior officials in the Political Bureau abroad and in Gaza, including Ismail Haniyeh and his deputy Musa Abu Marzouk, Khaled Mashal, Fathi Hamed and a number of other senior officials in agitation.
The same journalist estimated that the main targets for assassination in the Gaza Strip include the leader of Hamas in Gaza, Yahya Al-Sinwar, and the leaders of the military wing: Muhammad Al-Deif, Marwan Issa, Raad Saad, Raif Salama, and Izz al-Din al-Haddad, commander of the Gaza City Brigade in Hamas. In Kleiman's view, all Hamas officials should fear Israel's long-term measures, saying, "It is hoped that with the elimination of the top and leaders of the terrorist organization, many of its capabilities will be destroyed."
He pointed out that the assassination of Al-Arouri represents an important message to those in charge of mediation and managing communications between Israel and Hamas in order to reach an exchange deal stating that “there is no immunity for any Hamas leader, and they are all in the circle of being targeted.”
Operational Update
Major General Fayez Al-Duwairi, the Al-Jazeera military and strategic analyst, said that the secret methods that the Israeli occupation army claimed to have begun using in the fighting in the city of Khan Yunis, south of the Gaza Strip , are to rely on two new types of robots. The military spokesman for the Israeli army, Daniel Hagari, said in his daily testimony that the Israeli forces continue to work underground in Khan Yunis, and that this process will take time because the army has begun using “secret and new” combat methods that it does not want to reveal.
Al-Duwairi explained in a military analysis that the situation did not change much east of Khan Yunis and in the city itself, but the main change was in the Al-Qarara area after the operations carried out there, which gave an indication that the situation there would be similar to what was happening in Juhr Al-Dik in the northern Gaza Strip. He pointed out that 24 hours ago, the occupation forces launched attacks from 3 directions on the Al-Qarara area, west, south and east, without achieving any real military achievement, as the resistance is still able to fight and repel.
He also pointed out that the areas east of Khan Yunis are still difficult for the occupation forces to enter, while the resistance forced the occupation forces north of the city to return again after achieving relative progress.
In the context of his talk about the new methods that the military spokesman for the occupation army spoke about, Al-Duwairi explained that the army introduced two types of robots to fight in Khan Yunis, one of which makes sounds similar to the sounds of tanks and the firing of gunfire, and that trick was discovered by the resistance and dealt with appropriately.
As for the second type of these robots, it is the most dangerous, according to the military expert, as it is a fighter carrying a machine gun, has sensors, and moves independently based on the nature of the ground and deals with targets. However, the resistance also spoke about its ability to deal with this new challenge.
He pointed out that there is no information available about the number of these robots, but previous attempts to use them in war faced various problems, the most important of which is the distance that the robot can travel in tunnels, which does not exceed a maximum of 400 meters. Al-Duwairi explained that to address this problem, the occupation army relies on dogs trained with robots, pointing out that an engineering battalion has been established, trained and qualified to deal with tunnels, and it is responsible for this work.
The United Nations said that the number of displaced people who arrived in the city of Rafah, south of the Gaza Strip , since the start of the recent Israeli aggression, has reached about one million. The United Nations added, in its daily humanitarian report, that “Rafah Governorate has now become the main refuge for displaced people, with more than a million people living in a very crowded area, following the intensification of hostilities in Khan Yunis and Deir al-Balah, and evacuation orders issued by the Israeli army.”
By the end of 2023, according to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), the number of displaced people in Gaza is estimated at 1.9 million people, or approximately 85% of the total population of the Strip, including some who have been displaced multiple times, as families are forced to move. Frequently in the sector in search of safety.
Nearly 1.4 million displaced people live in 155 UNRWA facilities in all five governorates. The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights reaffirmed that there is no safe space in Gaza. UNHCR said in a statement: “We cannot talk about safety anywhere. People are sleeping on the streets in the open, and some of them were not even able to follow evacuation orders.”
The White House held a background press teleconference call on attacks in the Red Sea by the Houthis, on background, attributable to a senior administration official : "since November 19th, Houthi rebels from Yemen have attacked commercial vessels 23 times. They’ve been using a combination of anti-ship ballistic missiles — for the first time anti-ship ballistic missiles have been used anywhere, let alone against commercial ships — land attack cruise missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles, and fast boats....
"So the statement that issued today from 13 countries around the world, including from Europe, North America, Asia, and the Middle East, and this grouping of states — Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore, the UK, and of course, United States — includes some of the world’s major shipping countries and, I think, speaks to the global impact of the Houthi actions...
"As for the warning — that the Houthis will bear the consequences should their attacks in the Red Sea continue — we will let the statement speak for itself. I think it is very clear.... I’m not going to get into rules of engagement or any anticipatory further action. I would just say that I don’t — I would not anticipate another warning. I think this statement speaks very much for itself....
"What I can say is they have chosen to take action that affects global commerce. And this is, again, central to our national defense doctrine, national security strategy, entirely separate and distinct from anything else going on in the Middle East. This is the sort of threat that we would build coalitions to help confront.
"I would just also note that every country makes its own decisions. So in terms of the defensive coalition and Operation Prosperity Guardian, a number of countries that are part of that coalition, their flags are public, some of them are not. And also, I think in any additional measures that might be taken, that we will act in concert with different collections of countries as we see fit....
"... if you look at the action we’ve taken, we will act very forcefully when it comes to any threats against our people or our interests. We’re also going to do so in a very smart way that does not potentially draw us in deep to a situation that actually plays into the hands of some of these proxy groups....
"... this is not really about the Middle East. This is about the protection of one of the major commerce routes of the world in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb. If this was happening, again, anywhere else in the world, we would be acting the same way. And I think we want to keep it kind of distinct from the question that David asked about the Yemeni civil war and some of the other tensions in the region. That’s really not what this is about."
Maps
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All maps are lies. But it is impossible to comprehend the war in Gaza without reference to maps, otherwise the entire conflict is reduced to an endless series of meaningless acts of random violence and the suffering of civilians. The first characteristic of guerrilla warfare is the loss of a front line. Evidently, different mappers have different ideas of how to depict the war in Gaza, notably those that seek to depict Israeli progress in the ground campaign. Part of the problem is latency. The news that forms the basis of the maps takes time to filter out to mappers, and the cartographers take time in crafting their maps, and it takes time to curate them. Thes processes are uneven among mappers, so their maps may differ in detail. Probably there is some ideological bias, or at least thematic apperception, which is understandable in wartime. It may come as no surprise that al-Jazeera maps depict rather less Israeli territorial progress than other sources. Finally, there remains the epistemological question of just exactly what are the colored in areas depicting. Naively, this might be understood as areas of Israeli control, that are no longer contested by the HAMAS. Or possibly these are areas of Israeli presence, in many of which the possibility of an RPG-wielding HAMAS militant popping out of a tunnel unexpectedly remains a live possibility. With the "zero-range" combat characterized by small unit tactics on both sides, maps may be prey to a fallacy of misplaced concreteness. |
Bystanders
Qatar and Saudi Arabia denounced in the strongest terms the statements of the Israeli Ministers of Finance and National Security, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, regarding the displacement of the population of Gaza , the reoccupation of the Gaza Strip, and the construction of settlements there, and they considered the statements a violation of international laws. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had said earlier that he was working on the "voluntary migration" of Gazans, and was looking for countries that could host them, after putting forward a proposal to displace Gazans to the Egyptian Sinai at the beginning of the war.
The Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement that the Israeli statements are an extension of the occupation’s approach to violating the rights of the Palestinian people and blocking the path to peace and the two-state solution. The Qatari Foreign Ministry stressed that the policy of collective punishment and forced displacement practiced by the occupation authorities against the residents of Gaza will not change the fact that Gaza is Palestinian land, and will remain Palestinian.
For its part, the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs described in a statement the statements of Israeli officials as “extremist” and stressed the need for international cooperation to activate mechanisms to hold Israel accountable and its violation of international and humanitarian law.
The "broad" sympathy that Israel gained following the attack by the Palestinian resistance, led by the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ), on October 7th, collapsed under the impact of its military strikes in the Gaza Strip , turning into support for Palestinian civilians, and its international isolation deepened little by little.
This is what can be summarized in a report in the French newspaper Le Monde, which highlighted that this transformation was accompanied by distortions in views between the outside world and Israel, and that legitimate feelings and prejudices limit consideration of the complexity of this tragedy, and make thinking about the war in Gaza a challenge amidst a fever. Campus attitudes, glowering social networks, and the rise of anti-Semitism.
Le Monde saw - in a report by Piotr Smolar, its correspondent in Washington - that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu bears a heavy responsibility for the crisis that is afflicting his country in terms of security and morals, after he attacked the moderate forces and allied himself with representatives of violent Jewish supremacy, at a time when the rise of national religious tribalism embodies the fragmentation of society. Israeli.
Likewise, Netanyahu - as the newspaper believes - must bear responsibility for the disaster of last October 7, and this will only be done through an investigation committee that highlights the warnings that were not taken into account, and the analyzes that were ignored. Note that “Bibi” (as he is called in Israel) preferred the collapse of the Palestinian political scene, and concluded implicit agreements with Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
By focusing on Netanyahu, who has lost his credibility with public opinion in a stunning manner, Western experts miss a form of Israeli consensus that is in a state of mourning and anger, and is united only by the desire to put an end to Hamas, which constitutes the first misunderstanding.
The desire to "destroy Hamas", which covers everything for Israel, is matched by the desire for the entire world today except the United States to put an end to the massacre committed by the Israeli army in the Gaza Strip. This is the second misunderstanding with Israel, which confuses legitimate military objectives with the satisfaction of... The desire for revenge, believing that in order to restore homeland security and deterrence, the tumor must be removed, even if the Palestinian body dies.
Although the number of martyrs in Gaza exceeded 22 thousand, in addition to the displaced and the destruction, the Hamas movement’s team and political leadership remain almost intact, despite the assassination of the second man in the movement’s political bureau, Saleh Al-Arouri . Therefore, admitting the near-failure would lead, for Israel, to A form of collapse, exacerbated by the dramatic fate of the remaining hostages.
The third misunderstanding concerns the post-war period, as Netanyahu declared that “there will be neither Fatah-istan nor Hamas-istan” in Gaza, and he clings to his alliance with the national-religious right, a calculation that is consistent with the pessimism of the fundamental impossibility of peace in Israeli society.
In this dark era, the administration of US President Joe Biden wants to revive the two-state solution and “revitalize” the Palestinian Authority so that it can return to Gaza, which means - without saying so - gradually removing Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who has been in power since 2004, from the scene. It may also include accepting Hamas and Islamic Jihad into the Palestine Liberation Organization, and therefore what appears to be an option in the West represents a threat to Israel, and that is the biggest misunderstanding.
Axis of Resistance
The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) denounced the recent terrorist attack in the southern Iranian city of Kerman, labeling it a futile effort to sow instability within Iran. In a statement issued on Thursday, the IRGC condemned the twin blasts that resulted in the tragic loss of 84 lives and left 284 individuals injured, with some in critical condition. Medical authorities have grimly predicted a potential rise in the death toll.
The explosions occurred in proximity to the resting place of the late anti-terror commander, Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani, during a commemorative ceremony marking his fourth martyrdom anniversary. Describing the attack as an act of revenge aimed at the profound reverence of the Iranian people, particularly the courageous younger generation, towards General Soleimani, the IRGC cautioned the enemies, asserting the unwavering commitment of the Iranian nation to follow in his footsteps, thwarting any evil goals.
Underscoring the terrorists' inability to compensate for prior defeats endured at the hands of General Soleimani, the statement reiterated the nation's resilience against such cowardly acts.
In a parallel condemnation, the Iranian Army deplored the assault as a heinous crime resulting in the deaths of innocent civilians, including women and children. Characterizing it as indicative of the barbaric nature of the enemies of Islam, the Army emphasized the enemies' deep-seated animosity toward the noble Iranian nation. Emphatically rejecting any dent in the resolve of the Iranian people in combating terrorism, the Army emphasized that this vile act would only fortify their unity and coherence in the face of adversity.
Echoing the sentiment, President Ebrahim Raisi affirmed the nation's steadfastness in the aftermath of such terror, rebuffing the enemies' belief in achieving illicit objectives through such abhorrent means. Raisi highlighted Iran's resilience, asserting that these crimes cannot fracture the nation's cohesion, security, or strategy.
Allied for Democracy
Right-wing representatives in the Israeli Knesset presented an amendment to the Israeli Citizenship Law requiring the deportation of every Arab citizen who holds Israeli identity or citizenship and has been convicted of charges described as terrorist. Israeli Army Radio reported that if this amendment is approved, hundreds of Palestinian Arab citizens living within the Green Line and occupied Jerusalem will be deported to the Palestinian Authority areas in the West Bank.
Director of Al Jazeera's office in Palestine, Walid Al-Omari, said that this law came against the backdrop of the release of the two prisoners, Maher Younis and his cousin Karim Younis, from the Wadi Ara area and others, after spending more than 40 years in occupation prisons and being convicted of operations that caused the killing of Israelis. He added that these votes and amendments to the laws came within the framework of an attempt to escalate Israeli retaliatory measures against all Palestinians in the Green Line, the West Bank and Jerusalem, after the outbreak of war in the Gaza Strip .
The legal amendment was presented by right-wing representatives last week, including Amit Halevy, a member of the Knesset from the Likud Party headed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and a member of the Foreign Affairs and Security Committee in the Knesset, who was quoted by the radio as saying, “It is inconceivable that someone who conspired against Israel and its security would hold its nationality and reside there.” "The new law, if approved, will allow the Minister of the Interior to confiscate the right to citizenship and expel every person convicted of terrorism, whether he is currently in prison or whether he has been released and completed his sentence."
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken began a new tour in the region that includes Israel and aims to avoid the expansion of the war in the Gaza Strip after the assassination of the leader of the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) Saleh Al-Arouri in the southern suburb of Beirut and the two bombings in Iran, for which no party has claimed responsibility.
US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said: “No country has an interest in escalation in the region.” At a time when criticism of the United States is increasing for its consistent military support for Israel in its war in the Gaza Strip. Miller did not add details about the specific timetable for this visit and its overall stops, but it will be his fifth visit to Israel and his fourth to the region since last October 7.
The United States claims that the pressure it exerted on Israel behind the scenes bore fruit in recent days through Israel allowing aid trucks to enter Gaza and opening a second crossing. Blinken stressed that there is an urgent need to discuss the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip and prevent the escalation of the conflict in the region, in a phone call with his Italian counterpart, Antonio Taiani.
According to a statement from the US State Department, the two ministers discussed the threats facing global interests in light of the continued attacks launched by the Houthi group on Israeli ships in the Red Sea . According to the Italian newspaper ANSA, Tayani assured his American counterpart that freedom of navigation in the Red Sea is one of the most important priorities for Italy during its presidency of the G7 in 2024.
As an expression of its solidarity with the Gaza Strip, which has been witnessing a devastating war with American support since October 7, 2023, the Houthi group launched missile and drone attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea owned or managed by Israeli companies or transporting goods to and from Israel .
In response to the Houthi attacks, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced an initiative to form a coalition of 10 countries under the name “ Guardian of Prosperity ” on December 18, with the aim of “deterring attacks in the Red Sea.”
The United States and Israel are strategic partners working closely together to keep the people of both countries safe. The United States has a firm commitment to Israel’s security, represented by full military support since October 7.
Before the end of 2023, US President Joe Biden extended the terms and privileges of duty-free reciprocal trade for Israel on many agricultural products for a year ending on December 31, 2024. A White House statement said that the extension would allow additional time for the two governments to conclude an agreement replacing A trade agreement dating back to 2004 regulates the exchange of agricultural products between the two countries.
A free trade agreement between the United States and Israel has been in place since 1985, and it was the first free trade agreement in which the United States ever entered, and the free trade agreement between the two countries is still in effect.
The United States later signed 20 free trade agreements with countries from various continents, including 3 Arab countries: Jordan, Oman, and Morocco. Although the agreement with Israel is the oldest, it was not as comprehensive as the more recent free trade agreements, and was mainly limited to facilitating trade and investment between the two countries. This agreement canceled duties on most manufactured goods traded between the two countries, but it did not address agricultural products, in order to protect American farmers.
The Free Trade Agreement helped trade between the two countries grow more than 8-fold since its inception, and the agreement has become a very important tool for supporting the Israeli economy. Official data available at the Office of the US Trade Representative indicate that the volume of exchange of goods and services between the two countries exceeded $50 billion in 2022. US exports reached $20 billion, imports reached $30.6 billion, and the trade deficit for US goods and services with Israel reached $10.7 billion.
American companies exported $14.2 billion in goods and $5.8 billion in services to Israel. Major exports included machinery, mechanical devices, glass, metals, and chemicals, and US services exports to Israel focused on the transportation, travel, and financial services sectors.
In contrast, Israeli companies exported $21.4 billion in goods, the most important of which were fertilizers, precious stones, electronics, and medical products, and $9.2 billion in services to the United States in the same year. Foreign direct investment by Israeli companies reached $10.6 billion in 2022 in the American market, especially in real estate, financial hedging institutions, and manufacturing.
American foreign direct investment (FDI) in Israel reached $42.5 billion in 2022, and American direct investment in Israel is directed to the fields of manufacturing, information technology, and professional, scientific, and technical services.
Since the signing of the Free Trade Agreement in 1985, the United States has become Israel's largest trading partner, after bilateral trade in goods and services between them grew eight-fold. To facilitate economic cooperation, the Joint Economic Development Group (JEDG) meets annually to discuss the economic partnership and areas of potential growth. The United States and Israel also coordinate through several mechanisms, including the Science Foundation, the Agricultural Research and Development Foundation, the Industrial Research and Development Foundation, and the American Israel Education Foundation. Last July, the United States and Israel held a high-level strategic dialogue on technology to partner on critical and emerging technologies to address global challenges.
The United States has a firm commitment to Israel's security, which has been clearly demonstrated in full military support since October 7, supported by massive security aid to Israel, including a 10-year memorandum of understanding worth $38 billion (3.8 billion annually) concluded in 2016. In line with that memorandum of understanding, Washington provides $3.3 billion annually in military funding and an additional $500 million in missile defense funding.
Missile defense funding supports several cooperative missile defense programs, and since 2022, Washington has been providing an additional $1 billion in supplemental funding to replenish Israel's stockpile of Iron Dome interceptors. As of 2020, the United States has provided Israel with $146 billion in military aid (excluding inflation, according to Congressional Research Service data), and some experts estimate the total value of aid after adjusting for inflation to reach $236 billion.
AIPAC , the largest Israeli lobby organization in the United States, promotes the saying that “Israel invests in the American economy, creates American jobs, and encourages American innovation.” AIPAC indicates that direct Israeli investments in the United States employ approximately 100,000 Americans. At the same time, AIPAC highlights that the United States is the largest investor in Israel.
Israel provides a strong opportunity to do business for more than 2,500 American companies. Israeli companies represent the second largest source of foreign listings on the Nasdaq after China, more than Indian, Japanese and South Korean companies.
For decades, Washington has been providing Israel with billions of dollars in loan guarantees, initially extending until fiscal year 2005. Since then, Congress has extended the program six times, and the program currently continues until the end of fiscal year 2028. In general, Israel may view American loan guarantees as a recourse option. The latter in case economic conditions deteriorate, as its treasury can use it if unsecured domestic and international bond issues become too expensive.
Israeli officials believe that although they have not used loan guarantees in the past 18 years, maintaining the program strengthens the country's financial position among international creditors in the capital markets, especially in periods of tension such as those witnessed by Israel since the start of the Al- Aqsa Flood operations.
Butcher's Bill / Oasis of Martyrs
Palestinian armed group Hamas launched thousands of missiles at Israel and deployed its militants to infiltrate Jewish settlements near the country’s border with Gaza on 07 October 2023. The 1,200 Israelis killed on the first day would be the equivalent of 36,000 Americans killed in an attack, as a proportion to Israel’s population of 9.3 million people (compared to 332 million in the USA). Israeli President Isaac Herzog stated: “Not since the Holocaust have so many Jews been killed in one day". PM Netanyahu stated "On October 7th, Hamas murdered 1,400 Israelis. Maybe more. This is in a country of fewer than 10 million people. This would be equivalent to over 50,000 Americans murdered in a single day. That’s twenty 9/11s. That is why October 7th is another day that will live in infamy."
It is the second largest loss inflicted on the Israeli forces after the 1973 war, as the Palestinian resistance killed more than 1,200, wounded more than 5,132 others, and captured more than 250, most of them military personnel, some of whom were high-ranking officers in the army.
Regarding what is happening in the West Bank and occupied Jerusalem, Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) representative Osama Hamdan said that the Israeli aggression there left 313 martyrs and injured more than 3,000, which is a continuation of the plans of the Netanyahu government.
The HAMAS Ministry of Health in the besieged sector announced that the number of victims of the Israeli operation its beginning had risen to about 21,978 martyrs, and the killing of more than 7,700 Palestinian children. The ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants.
The number wounded was 57,697. The Palestinian Government Media Office in Gaza had said much earlier that the number of missing people had risen to more than 7,500, including including 4,700 children and women, and this number had not changes in recent weeks.
The spokesman for the HAMAS Ministry of Health in Gaza, Ashraf Al-Qudra, stated that 326 health personnel were martyred in the Israeli aggression, and 104 ambulances were destroyed and taken out of service. He confirmed that the occupation deliberately targeted 150 health institutions and put 30 hospitals out of service, in addition to continuing to arrest 99 health personnel in inhumane conditions.
Lebanese Hezbollah announced the killing of one of its members in southern Lebanon during confrontations with Israeli forces, bringing the party's death toll to 134 since last October 8. The statement said, "With greater pride and honor, the Islamic Resistance mourns the martyr, the Mujahid, Ali Ahmed Saad Jibril, from the city of Bint Jbeil in southern Lebanon, who rose as a martyr on the road to Jerusalem," according to the official Lebanese News Agency.
The Israeli bombing led to the killing of a number of civilians, and 3 journalists.
Israel revised down the death toll from the October Hamas attacks in southern Israel from 1,400 to 1,200. IDF had said previously it was holding 1,500 bodies of terrorists, a total that now would increas to about 1,700.
The officially announced number of deaths among the Israeli army since the start of the ground incursion on October 27th to 177, and 505 deaths since the Al-Aqsa Flood operation on the 7th of the same month. Among them are 56 with the rank of platoon commander, 43 with the rank of company commander, 8 with the rank of battalion commander, and 5 with the rank of brigade commander. These officers constitute 23% of the total deaths of the Israeli army in the war on Gaza.
Israeli media reported that 27% of the Israeli military casualties in the war were officers. In detail, the media highlighted that three brigade commanders, four battalion commanders, and other senior officers have been killed in the war so far.
The Israeli Broadcasting Corporation reported that 29 of the army's deaths were caused by "friendly fire" and operational incidents since the start of the ground war in Gaza, late last October. The Israeli authority explained that "18 army soldiers were killed by friendly fire, two were killed as a result of gunfire (without explanation), and 9 Israeli soldiers were killed in ammunition, weapons, or run-over accidents." The Jerusalem Post newspaper revealed that 15 soldiers were killed in the Strip without their bodies being found.
The Israeli army reported that 2,234 soldiers - including 355 seriously injured - have been injured since the beginning of the war on Gaza, including earlier reports of 576 moderate, and 1,161 minor.
At least 12,387 Israelis were injured, according to i24 TV. The IDF updated the number of soldiers injured in the war and attacks on October 7 to 1,683.
Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper had reported that 5,000 soldiers had been wounded since the beginning of the war on October 7, and that the Ministry of Defense had recognized 2,000 soldiers as disabled so far.
According to some reports statistics indicate that 20% of the Israeli losses were due to friendly fire. Because the nature of the battle has become completely different from what was expected, and it lacks a front line.
Hostages
Israel had previously estimated there were 116 living hostages in Palestinian custody. Israel declared 19 out of 135 people in Gaza captivity dead in absentia, after announcing its forces had recovered the bodies of two hostages. Israel considers those still held by Hamas to be hostages regardless of whether they are dead or alive.
Israeli government spokesperson Eylon Levy earlier had told reporters that Hamas still held 137 captives. The resistance released 10 Israeli detainees, 4 Thais and 2 Russian women, who were released outside the agreement. Over the course of 6 days, Israel has received 102 detainees, women and children, including 78 Israelis, in exchange for the release of 234 Palestinian prisoners, women and children.
Eylon Levy, the Israeli government spokesperson, told reporters 01 December 2023:
- Hamas still held 137 hostages from the October attacks, in addition to four others who went missing before the war
- The hostages include two children aged four and 10 months, who, Hamas now claims, are dead
- 117 male hostages are still kept in Gaza, including the two children, as well as 20 females
- 126 hostages are Israelis, and 11 others are foreign nationals
- Foreign nationals are eight Thais, one Nepalese, one Tanzanian and one French Mexican citizen
- Ten of the remaining hostages are 75 and older.
- There are seven missing people since the October 7 attack
- Hamas had released 110 hostages so far – 86 Israelis and 24 foreign nationals.
Some of the rest are soldiers, seized when Hamas raided military bases in Israel. They may end up being held the longest. The Israeli military had not specified how many soldiers were captured, nor their ranks.
According to some estimates, Hamas was initially holding nearly 210 of the 240 hostages, while Palestinian Islamic Jihad was holding the remaining 30. About 40 Israelis remained missing. More than 40 hostages taken from Israel into Gaza on October 7th are not currently in the custody of Hamas, the group responsible for the attack, according to a CNN report based on a diplomatic source briefed on the negotiations, CNN's prior reports had indicated that an estimated 40 to 50 hostages were held by Palestinian Islamic Jihad or other unidentified groups or individuals.
Abu Ubaida, the spokesperson for the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, said on Hamas’ telegram account that 23 bodies of the 60 missing Israel hostages were trapped under the rubble. “It seems that we will never be able to reach them due to the continued brutal aggression of the occupation against Gaza,” he said.
The Palestinian Prisoners' Club revealed on Wednesday that about 11,000 arrests were carried out by the Israeli occupation army during the year 2023 in the West Bank , including occupied Jerusalem , in addition to arrests from the Gaza Strip before the seventh of last October. The Prisoners' Club explained that arrests after the 7th of October amounted to more than 5,500, in contrast to the detainees in Gaza after the 7th of the same month. The Prisoners' Club stated that cases of arrest among women amounted to (300), and this toll includes women from the occupied interior detained after October 7, while the number of cases of children reached 1,085.
Israel said that, since the beginning of the war, approximately 2,570 wanted persons have been arrested throughout the Judea and Samaria Division and the Bekaa and Valleys Division, approximately 1,300 of whom are affiliated with Hamas.
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