Operation Iron Swords - 11-17 August 2024

11 August 2024

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told military recruits that Israel will operate in ways it has never operated before if it is attacked in an unprecedented way by Iran and Hezbollah. “We have significant capabilities. I hope they take this into account and don’t bring about a war on additional fronts,” he told the recruits at the Tel Hashomer military base. He added that Israel is fighting for its existence in a “hostile environment.”

12 August 2024

Israeli & US officials estimate that Iran will not attack tonight, Barak Ravid reports. Diplomatic efforts to avert major Mideast escalation continue. The Washington Post reported that while Iranian officials in public threatened of a “Tough Response” against Israel for the assassination of Hamas chief political leader, Ismail Haniyeh; during behind-the-scenes discussions with its proxy groups like the Houthis and Hezbollah, they have called for caution against any kind of large-scale attack against Israel. with the Iranian Government seeking to balance a “show of force” against a full-scale regional war. During a series of talks recently between senior Iranian and Hezbollah officials, Iran is claimed to have expressed major concern over a Large-scale coordinated attack against Israel, which they believe could cause both Israel and the United States to Justify launching strikes against the Iranian nuclear program and thus “neutralizing Iran’s nuclear Deterrence.”

"Something could happen as soon as this week by Iran and its proxies... That is a U.S. assessment as well as an Israel assessment," White House spokesperson John Kirby told reporters.

13 August 2024

The Israeli newspaper Haaretz published an article entitled "Netanyahu wants a world war," in which the author believed that Netanyahu's escalatory policies, including the assassination of Haniyeh in Iran, directly threaten global security. The writer believes that Netanyahu is seeking to repeat previous scenarios, where he succeeded in mobilizing international support to repel an Iranian attack, and he believes that Netanyahu is exploiting this strategy to achieve his political goals.

A revised Israeli intelligence assessment suggests that Iran is slated to launch an assault on the Jewish state “within days” in a joint attack with its Lebanese Hezbollah proxy, Axios reported. Israeli intelligence indicates Tehran’s attack could be launched before the Gaza ceasefire talks scheduled for 15 August 2024. The attacks are anticipated to be larger and more complicated than Tehran’s April strike.

Only a ceasefire deal in Gaza stemming from hoped-for talks this week would hold Iran back from direct retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on its soil, three senior Iranian officials told Reuters. President Biden told reporters that he is concerned about the situation in the Middle East and the possibility of Iran attacking Israel. He noted that the US is still monitoring Iran's intentions. When asked if he expected Iran not to attack Israel if a cease-fire agreement was reached, Biden replied: "That is my expectation." Biden, asked on the tarmac in NOLA if increasingly bellicose rhetoric from Iran could threaten a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, tells reporters, “It’s getting hard—we’ll see what Iran does and we’ll see what happens, if there’s any attack, but I'm not giving up."

The Israeli Home Front Command, led by the Israeli army, instructed all Israelis living in the Upper Galilee to stay near shelters.

US Secretary of State Blinken postponed his visit to the Middle East citing "uncertainty about the situation" and will not travel to the region tonight. “We do not expect an attack from Iran tonight,” sources tell to Axios.

An Iraqi member of parliament closely linked to the country’s Iranian-backed militias gave an account to The Washington Post: “We were told (by Iran) that it would be a limited response,” because Tehran “does not want to expand the war.” In recent meetings, according to the Lebanese source with ties to Hezbollah, Iran has expressed concern that Israel and the United States might strike its nuclear program, using a full-scale conflict as a pretext to “essentially neutralize Iran’s nuclear deterrent.”

Ali Asghar Shafieian, a campaign adviser to Iran's newly elected president, Pezeshkian, suggested that Tehran's response was unlikely to be a repeat of the hours-long barrage in April. He told the Washington Post that killing Haniyeh “was an intelligence-based mission,” and “Iran’s response will be of a similar nature and at a similar level.”

The number of settlers who stormed Al-Aqsa Mosque on the occasion of the anniversary of the "destruction of the Temple " was not surprising. At least 2,958 settlers participated in today's raids, which exceeds the number of raiders recorded for the same occasion last year, which was 2,140. This is the sixth incursion into Al-Aqsa that Ben Gvir has carried out since assuming his position in early 2023. He and hundreds of settlers want, through their incursion, to change the historical and legal status of the mosque. Hundreds of Jewish extremists, accompanied by ministers, politicians and Knesset members, to desecrate and storm the mosque, conduct provocative tours, set up dancing circles, clap and sing, raise the Israeli flag and other provocative violations. The United States criticized the storming of the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound by the far-right Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir on Tuesday, a move condemned by the United Nations , the European Union and France, while Arab countries rejected it and called for international intervention. The number of settlers who stormed Al-Aqsa Mosque today, Tuesday, on the occasion of the anniversary of the "destruction of the Temple " was not surprising despite its enormity, and the violations that were recorded were not shocking in light of the large mobilization campaign led by extremist Temple organizations on the one hand, and the campaign of precautionary deportations that preceded the commemoration of this anniversary by days and the prevention of worshipers from reaching the mosque on the other hand.

The New York Times indicate that, despite Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly claiming that he has not created difficulties for hostage release deal to be struck, his conduct in private proves the opposite. Israel submitted at the end of July a list of new demands to US, Egyptian, and Qatari mediators, with five harsher additions its list of demands submitted at the end of May. In a meeting held on August 4 with government ministers, Netanyahu said that Israel "did not even add one demand to the plan," and that "Hamas is the one who demanded dozens of changes." However, the documents surveyed report that Netanyahu's behind-the-scenes reversal was extensive. The differences between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Defense Minister Yoav Galant have become more intense and public in recent days. In previous statements that angered Netanyahu , Galant said, "Israel is the reason for the delay in concluding a deal to return the kidnapped soldiers, and talk of an absolute victory is complete nonsense." Netanyahu's office issued a statement in response to these statements, saying, "Defense Minister Galant is adopting an anti-Israel narrative, and is harming the chances of reaching a deal to release the prisoners. Israel has only one choice: to achieve victory. These instructions from the prime minister are binding on everyone, including Galant."

14 August 2024

IDF reservists stood by as Jewish settlers in the West Bank attacked residents and set fire to buildings in the West Bank town of Jit, according to a preliminary probe by Israel. A defense official said the soldiers "didn't do anything to stop the pogrom," despite witnessing the acts. A 23-year-old Palestinian was killed and none of the rioters were arrested.

The United States said it expected indirect talks between Hamas and Israel to go ahead as planned in the Qatari capital Doha and that a ceasefire agreement was still possible. Last week, the leaders of Qatar, Egypt and the United States called on Hamas and Israel to resume talks on a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and a prisoner exchange on August 15 in Doha or Cairo. This comes at a time when Iran is threatening a harsh response to the assassination of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran at the end of last month, and this coincided with Israel raising its military and security readiness to confront the expected Iranian attack, while mobilizing support from European countries and America.

Ahead of the ceasefire negotiations tomorrow, three Iranian officials said that only a ceasefire in Gaza would prevent Iran from responding directly to Israel. Are the leaders in Iran waiting for the outcome of this round of negotiations in order to determine the level of response to Haniyeh’s assassination, or even the possibility of canceling it and being satisfied with a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, as a new stage in calming the conflict with Israel?

Al Jazeera Net discussed this hypothesis with a number of analysts and experts, and they concluded that the Iranian response is separate from the ceasefire negotiations between the Palestinian resistance and Israel, and that tomorrow’s negotiations, Thursday, are one of many previous rounds, and their results will not affect the response with which Iran defends its sovereignty, which was violated by the assassination of Haniyeh on its territory.

Former Iranian Ambassador to Jordan and Lebanon Ahmad Dastamjian believes that there is no connection between the expected Iranian response and the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza. He said that Iran hopes that Thursday's summit will produce something that serves the Palestinian people and puts an end to the bloodshed in Gaza. Dasmaljian added - in statements to Al Jazeera Net - that "Iran is delaying its response so as not to give a justification to some parties that are working tirelessly to miss the opportunities for a ceasefire," and that Iran did not link its response to the outcomes of the negotiations that will take place on Thursday, "because the issue of a ceasefire is one thing, and responding to the violation of the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic and avenging the blood of its dear guest, the martyr Ismail Haniyeh, is another thing."

Former Iranian Ambassador to Britain Jalal Sadatian does not link the reason for the delay in the Iranian response to Thursday’s negotiations. He attributes the reason for Tehran’s postponement of its response to its continued collection of documents and evidence proving that Israel was behind the assassination of Haniyeh in Iran. He added - in statements to Al Jazeera Net - that Tel Aviv is deliberately escalating in Gaza and outside it to rally its Western allies in the region and provoke a new war to cover up its crimes in Gaza. Sadatian pointed out that the United States does not want further escalation in the region until the next US presidential elections at least, because Washington believes that any new escalation in the east will serve the interests of the Russians and harm the Ukrainian side in the war that has been going on for years.

The researcher and political analyst Muhammad al-Jamal also believes that the response is inevitable, but he attributes the reason for its delay to the wide gap between the response that Iran can accept and the response that Israel can bear without leading to a regional war, a gap that the United States is trying to bridge through diplomatic work.

The writer and political analyst Abdullah Aqrabawi believes that the Iranian response is no longer limited to the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip alone, but has become related to the equation of Iranian deterrence, sovereignty, and national dignity for Iran, because what happened represents a direct breach by Israel of the rules of engagement, with the intention of insulting the Iranian side. He added - in an interview with Al Jazeera Net - that the Iranians are not waiting for the outcomes of the ceasefire negotiations tomorrow, Thursday, because these negotiations are an American attempt to contain the escalation or mitigate it in order to embarrass the Iranian position and Hezbollah in the event that they insist on responding as if they want to stir up the region.

The writer and political analyst, Moein Manna, does not deviate from previous opinions regarding the inevitability of the Iranian response, but - in an interview with Al Jazeera Net - he pointed to 3 perceptions that the Iranian response went through and its connection to the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza as follows:

1. Firstly, following the assassination, the response was completely separate from any negotiations or other events, and the talk was about its nature, time frame and intended objectives.
2. Secondly, reports later emerged about direct or indirect meetings between representatives from the United States and Iran to determine the level and nature of the response in a way that would not lead to a regional war.
3. Thirdly, the idea has crystallized that Iran is interested in the Palestinian resistance and supports it logistically. If a ceasefire is reached in the Gaza Strip in a way that is acceptable to the Palestinian resistance, there is no objection to Iran also accepting this agreement, because it sees that its primary goal is a ceasefire.

Amid escalating tensions in the region,.. U.S. President Joe Biden has said Iran could hold off on a retaliatory strike on Israel if a ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel is reached. "We'll see what Iran does and we'll see what happens if there's any attack, but I'm not giving up." The U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations also called on members of the Security Council to help finalize and implement a ceasefire agreement for Gaza. "The United States' overall goal remains to turn the temperature down in the region, deter and defend against any future attacks and avoid regional conflict. That starts with finalizing a deal for an immediate ceasefire with hostage release in Gaza."

15 August 2024

Israeli intelligence now assesses that Hezbollah and Iran have lowered the level of alertness in their rocket and missile units and that the response will take place at a later date, according to five Israeli officials - NYT reported. In apparent preparations for a strike in Iran, the Israeli Air Force conducted a long-range refueling exercise. In a statement, the IDF said the drill "simulated a long-range flight deep in enemy territory, while conducting aerial refueling several times in short periods." The drill was carried out over Israeli airspace, and involved one of the IAF's Boeing 707 refueling planes, and several F-35i and F-15 fighter jets.

Military expert, Major General Fayez Al-Duwairi, said that the resistance cannot fight battles at zero distance or prepare ambushes at the present time due to the repositioning of the occupation forces in distant areas, stressing that this type of battle has inflicted losses on Israel that it has not suffered in all previous wars. Al-Duwairi added - in an analysis of the military scene in the Gaza Strip - that the resistance relies on mortar shells and Rajum rockets, because it does not engage in direct battles except when the occupation forces penetrate residential areas. He stressed that the zero-distance confrontation makes the resistance more capable of using weapons such as the " Yassin-105 " shell, which destroyed a number of vehicles that were not destroyed during all previous wars, according to him.

16 August 2024

Iran delayed its strikes on Israel to allow ceasefire talks in Doha & not be blamed for undermining a truce in Gaza, according to Iranian, U.S. and Israeli officials. Ceasefire talks wrapped up in Doha. International mediators working on a cease-fire and hostage release agreement between Israel and Hamas announced Friday they have presented both parties with a "bridging proposal" that builds on previous areas of agreement and closes remaining gaps to allow for swift implementation of the plan. After wrapping up a two-day meeting in Doha, meditators from the United States, Egypt and Qatar issued a joint statement, saying their talks had been intensive, serious, constructive and conducted in a positive atmosphere. The statement said senior officials from the mediators' governments would reconvene in Cairo before the end of next week to conclude the deal.

Working teams continue to address the details of a possible agreement in the days ahead. Negotiators are still working to bridge the gaps between Israel and Hamas. The two days of talks in Doha were more successful than expected. Israel showed a willingness to compromise on the main issues of controversy. But the bridging proposal the mediators are working on is nowhere near complete. Israel to send delegation to Cairo on Sunday to close gaps before top mediators regroup to finalize deal. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will now Travel to Israel and several other Countries in the Middle East over the Weekend, with him expected to meet on 19 August 2024. The US confirms Blinken’s Israel trip was aimed at finalizing hostage deal.

U.S. President Joe Biden called the talks "serious and constructive," adding that "senior officials from our governments will reconvene in Cairo before the end of next week with the aim to conclude the deal under the terms put forward today."

The Israeli Broadcasting Authority quoted security officials as saying that the Israeli army's operations in the Gaza Strip have generally ended. The officials added that the security establishment informed the political leadership that the time had come to strike a deal to return the Israeli detainees. The same sources said that Israel could re-enter the Gaza Strip when new intelligence information becomes available.

Senior Hamas official Ghazi Hamad said no major issue was agreed upon in the latest round of talks, and blamed Israel for sabotaging the negotiations. Hamad said Netanyahu "is trying to present a new outline, using the U.S., in an attempt to gain time."

17 August 2024

A dim light appeared at the end of the tunnel indicating the possibility of reaching a truce agreement in a long and stumbling path of negotiations. However, the stumbling blocks and obstacles that were revealed later were greater than the good news, especially since Israel seemed madly in love with bombing tunnels, even those that could lead to the release of a number of its prisoners held by the resistance brigades, and ending a war that is expected to open the door to other wars, without enabling Tel Aviv to achieve any of its declared goals. Coinciding with the end of the negotiating round in Doha, the United States spread an atmosphere of optimism about the imminence of reaching a new agreement, and it seemed as if it was throwing enormous diplomatic weight to achieve a success that its diplomacy had failed to achieve during the past months.The new American efforts and the atmosphere of optimism that prevailed in the hours following the conclusion of the negotiation round collided with two great rocks: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s rejection of any agreement, and what was described as the almost complete American identification with him in the past few days. Although the United States saw its proposal as perhaps the “last chance” to achieve a ceasefire and considered it a “proposal to close the gaps,” what subsequently resulted from it was the widening of the breach and the expansion of the gaps between the two parties, which represents the biggest setback to the negotiation process since its launch at the beginning of this year.