fighting the war as if there are no negotiations, and
negotiating as if there is no war
Avi Melamed
It is dangerous to be found in the company of God's enemies
Operation Iron Swords
October 2023
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January 2024
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July 2024
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On or about 01 July 2024, the Israel Defense Forces transitioned from phase 2 in the war against Hamas — the high-intensity stage of surging ground forces throughout Gaza — to phase 3, involving far more targeted operations, with a focus on the south of the Strip. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant headed to Washington 22 June 2024 for "critical" talks including those on the third phase of the war in the Gaza war. Phase 3 refers to low-intensity conflict as the military works to root out the remaining pockets of Hamas in Gaza, while the political echelon works to find an alternative to the terror group as ruler of the Strip.
During the last week of June multiple countries, including the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, and Kuwait, issued travel advisories for their citizens cautioning against visiting Lebanon. Germany, the Netherlands, Canada, and North Macedonia went further, urging their citizens to leave Lebanon. This heightened alert indicates a growing international concern over the tensions in the region.
Hezbollah preserved the equation that the more painful the Israeli strike is to it, the more intense Hezbollah’s response will be deep within Israel and against higher-quality targets. The main Israeli effort has been focused on destroying Hezbollah’s infrastructure in the villages along the border, primarily those located a few kilometers from the border fence.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on 01 July 2024 that Israel had “lost sovereignty” in the northern part of its country due to the persistent cross-border attacks Hezbollah had launched since October."Absent doing something about the insecurity, people won't have the confidence to go back" to their homes in northern Israel and southern Lebanon, Blinken said of the conflict with Hezbollah.
Israel reconnected Gaza to its electric grid on 02 July 2024 to renew the operation of a water desalination and sewage plant near Deir al-Balah. • The electric company in Gaza started repairing electric wires that were damaged during the war, connecting them to Israel's electric grid .
The New York Times reported on 02 July 2024 that top IDF generals are interested in a "cease-fire in Gaza even if it keeps Hamas in power for the time being." Six current and former security officials said they believe that a cease-fire with Hamas would be beneficial for several Israeli objectives: releasing the Israeli hostages still held captive in Gaza, reaching a deal with Hezbollah to prevent a war on Israel's border with Lebanon, and giving the forces time to recuperate in case a war with Hezbollah does break out.
In response to the report, PM Netanyahu said: "That's not happening".
The head of the IRGC's aerospace forces told visiting families of Hamas terrorists killed in Gaza "we await an opportunity" to launch another missile attack on Israel. “We await an opportunity for ‘True Promise II’ … in which I do not know how many missiles will be fired,” Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps aerospace forces commander Brig.-Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh told the family members, who were visiting Iran. Iran’s next attack, said Hajizadeh, “will lead to a complete victory for the Palestinian people.”
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz tweeted in response to the threat “My response to Iran is clear: 1. If Hezbollah does not cease its fire and withdraw from southern Lebanon, we will act against it with full force until security is restored and residents can return to their homes. 2. ?A regime that threatens destruction deserves to be destroyed,” he wrote.
Lebanon’s Hezbollah said 04 July 2024 it launched more than 200 rockets and drones targeting Israeli military positions in response to a strike that killed a senior commander of the armed group. A Hezbollah source confirmed the barrage – the second major attack in two days – was launched in retaliation for the killing of Muhammad Nimah Nasser in southern Lebanon a day earlier. The attack was one of the largest so far along the Lebanon-Israel border as tensions skyrocket with the group sending exploding drones at several military bases in northern Israel and the occupied Syrian Golan Heights.
Reuters reported 05 July 2024 that the Hamas informed its ally Hezbollah it had agreed to a proposal for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the leader of the powerful Lebanese group welcomed the step, two sources familiar with the matter said. Several senior Hamas figures in Gaza urged the organization's political leadership in Qatar to accept the US ceasefire proposal. They detailed Hamas' heavy losses and dire conditions in Gaza, potentially explaining their softened stance in ceasefire talks.
Hamas tentatively accepted a US-backed proposal for a phased cease-fire in Gaza, abandoning its demand for an upfront commitment from Israel to end the war entirely. This potential agreement, still under negotiation, could initiate a six-week cease-fire involving hostage and prisoner exchanges and pave the way for broader talks to conclude the nine-month conflict.
The two officials, who spoke on conditions of anonymity to discuss the ongoing negotiations, said Washington’s phased deal will first include a “full and complete” six-week cease-fire that would see the release of a number of hostages, including women, the elderly and the wounded, in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. During these 42 days, Israeli forces would also withdraw from densely populated areas of Gaza and allow the return of displaced people to their homes in northern Gaza, the pair said.
Over that period, Hamas, Israel and the mediators would also negotiate the terms of the second phase that could see the release of the remaining male hostages, both civilians and soldiers, the officials said. In return, Israel would free additional Palestinian prisoners and detainees. The third phase would see the return of any remaining hostages, including bodies of dead captives, and the start of a yearslong reconstruction project.
Netanyahu's office issued a statement listing four demands that he said were non-negotiable, according to The Times of Israel. The four demands stress the need for any agreement to "allow Israel to return to fighting until it achieves its goals in the war, prevent the smuggling of weapons to Hamas from Gaza and Egypt, prevent the return of thousands of armed terrorists to the northern Gaza Strip, and for Israel to work to increase the number of living hostages who are returned."
“We managed to recruit thousands of new fighters during the war, rehabilitate important capabilities, set up ambushes, manufacture explosives and shells, and recycle Israeli enemy leftovers,” Abu Ubaida, the spokesman for the Qassam Brigades, the group's armed wing, said in a recorded speech on 07 July 2024. This is the first time Abu Obeida has appeared since late May. "Our 24 battalions, along with the resistance factions, fought for nine months, from the northernmost Beit Hanoun to the southernmost Rafah,” he added. The spokesman said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks to cover up his failure to achieve "total victory" in Gaza. "It has become clear to you and the whole world that Netanyahu's supposed absolute victory is merely his victory in eliminating his opponents and staying in power at the expense of sacrificing your sons," he added in a message to the Israeli public and families of soldiers.
Abu Obeida focused in his speech on the battle of Rafah (southern Gaza Strip ) and the Netanzarim axis (central Gaza Strip). The Israeli occupation army continued to promote the idea that it would make Rafah the decisive battle in its war on the Gaza Strip, and claimed that it would fully achieve the strategic goals of the war by going to Rafah, which are destroying the capabilities of the Hamas movement, disarming it, reaching the resistance leaders, and freeing the prisoners. After 9 months of war, the resistance returned to all the areas that the Israeli army had previously penetrated, and here is the army today admitting its failure to achieve any accomplishment, which intersects with the desire of the political leadership in Israel to continue the war.
He refuted the claims of the Israeli Prime Minister and his military leaders regarding what they call the elimination of the military capabilities of Hamas’ military brigades, as it became clear after 9 months of war that the resistance had strengthened its defensive capabilities in all areas, as Abu Obeida revealed in his speech. Abu Obeida said in his speech, "We have strengthened our defensive capabilities to confront the occupation everywhere on our land," and "there are thousands of fighters ready to confront the enemy whenever necessary." He added, "All our 24 battalions, along with all the resistance factions, fought the enemy and defeated it in various parts of the Strip," stressing that "the enemy received - and continues to receive - painful blows wherever it penetrates into the Gaza Strip."
He stressed that the Al-Aqsa Flood "was not the beginning of our resistance to the occupation's aggression, but rather an explosion in the face of the enemy's crimes," adding, "We assure our mujahideen, our people, and our nation that the Al-Aqsa Flood is one of those battles that can only lead to major transformations." Abu Obeida said, “The resistance fronts in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen have united to support Jerusalem, and the collective conscience of our nation sides with this resistance.” He believed that "our nation's fighters achieved Arab unity in an unprecedented way by unifying the fronts against the occupation," but he added, "Expelling an ambassador or severing relations with an enemy that is exterminating an Arab Muslim people has become a dream for a great nation that has dominated the nations of the earth for centuries."
The government pulled a bill scheduled to be voted on to increase funding for religious councils amid coalition infighting and threats from the far-right Otzma Yehudit party that it would not support the bill. Party leader Itamar Ben Gvir refused to vote with the government unless he gets a seat on the so-called war cabinet. Channel 12 says that the Shas party, which had been pushing the bill, walked out of the Knesset in protest.
On July 8, U.S. State Department Spokesman Matthew Miller said that based on U.S. assessments, the Rafah operation saw a decrease in destruction and civilian casualties. “The casualty number has come down dramatically over the past few months,” Miller said, adding that no level of civilian casualties is acceptable. “But the operation has just, in terms of the results, looked different than the operations in Gaza City and Khan Younis,” he said.
The accumulative effects of Israel’s war on Gaza could mean the true death toll could reach more than 186,000 people, according to a study published in the journal Lancet. It is a letter from the correspondence section, not a peer-reviewed article, a part that can easily be missed. Such a number would represent almost 8 percent of Gaza’s pre-war population of 2.3 million. According to Gaza’s Ministry of Health, more than 38,000 Palestinians have been killed since Israel launched its military offensive on October 7 in the wake of deadly Hamas attacks. The study pointed out that the death toll is higher because the official toll does not take into account thousands of dead buried under rubble and indirect deaths due to destruction of health facilities, food distribution systems and other public infrastructure.
Nonetheless, as experts in urban warfare have repeatedly stated, the IDF has gone above and beyond the requirements of international humanitarian law in mitigating harm to civilians in conflict zones. This is something conveniently omitted by the authors of this letter. Close review shows this short piece is based on unreliable sources, gross misrepresentations, errors & omissions.
Israeli army confirmed that it targeted Al-Daif in a strike on the Al-Mawasi area on 13 July 2024, but it did not confirm the success of the operation in which a commander close to Al-Daif was killed, according to the army. Israel later announced the killing of a prominent Hamas leader, Rafeh Salama, while it was not certain of the fate of Al-Dhaif, who the Palestinian movement said was "fine." The IDF stated "In a joint operation by the IDF and the Shin Bet, the Air Force and the Southern Command attacked, based on accurate intelligence information from the IDF and the Shin Bet, in the area where the two top targets of Hamas and other terrorists were hiding among civilians. The area that was attacked is an open and wooded area, with several buildings and sheds."
A kamikaze drone of the Yemeni Ansar Allah movement lands near the American consulate in Tel Aviv. As a result of the strike, a man with Belarusian citizenship was killed and ten people were injured. It is obvious that the target was the US consulate, but the drone missed by several dozen meters. The Israeli Defense Ministry reported that the drone was detected, but they allegedly decided not to shoot it down, considering it to be a reconnaissance aircraft and therefore not dangerous to the population. In turn, a representative of the Houthis said that the attack was carried out using a new Yafa drone, capable of overcoming air defense systems.
The Israeli army said in a statement 16 July 2024 that its forces "eliminated and arrested about 14,000 terrorists," adding that among them were "six terrorists at the level of brigade commanders, more than 20 at the level of battalion commanders, and about 150 at the level of company commanders." It was clear from the published photo that the leader of Hamas's military wing, Mohammed Deif, is still on the target list and not among those who were assassinated. The army struck about 37,000 targets on the ground in the Gaza Strip from the air, and "more than 25,000 terrorist infrastructure and rocket launching sites."
On July 17, the Knesset General Assembly made a political decision, similar to what it approved on February 21 of this year, 2024, which “categorically” rejects the establishment of a Palestinian state anywhere in historical Palestine, or according to the text of the decision, “in the Land of Israel” and “west of the Jordan River.” The decision was taken by a majority of 68 members of parliament, from the ruling coalition blocs, along with members of the opposition blocs: the “official camp” led by Benny Gantz, “Israel Beitenu” led by Avigdor Lieberman , and the “official right” led by Gideon Sa’ar.
By mid-July 2024 there were 2 HAMAS battalions remaining.
Bloomberg reported 18 July 2024 the negotiations aimed at a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the release of hostages held by Hamas are facing "four main sticking points" preventing the reaching of a truce agreement. The first point is the file of the kidnapped hostages, whose release Israel is demanding. Other points include Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's demand that militants not return to northern Gaza, as well as his desire for Israeli forces to remain at the Rafah crossing in the south of the Strip. The fourth point of contention is Netanyahu's desire "that the ceasefire not be indefinite and binding on Israel."
According to IDF Spokesman Daniel Hagari, by 19 July 2024 there were mounting signs of Hamas military chief Mohammed Deif's death after last week's Israeli strike. Hagari said Deif was sitting near another Hamas leader killed in the strike, adding that Hamas is concealing Deif's fate.
IDF fighter jets struck military targets of the Houthi regime in the area of the Al Hudaydah Port in Yemen in response to the hundreds of attacks carried out against the State of Israel in recent months. The Israeli strike on Yemen was not unanimously approved by the cabinet, with KAN reporting that Bezalel Smotrich and Yariv Levin did not support the strike, claiming they did not receive "sufficient" explanations from the security establishment. The strikes were reportedly carried out by F-35I Adir fighter jets.
In Yemen, the House of Representatives, in its session 22 July 2024 headed by the Speaker of the House, Brother Yahya Ali Al-Ra’i, confirmed its blessing and support for the announcement of the Leader of the Revolution, Mr. Abdul-Malik Badr Al-Din Al-Houthi, to launch the fifth phase of escalation to confront the Zionist, American and British arrogance and haughtiness in the regime. The Council condemned the continued American, British and Zionist attacks on the capabilities of the Yemeni people, which come within the framework of pressuring the Yemeni position in support of the Palestinian people and their valiant resistance, noting that these attacks will not deter the Yemeni people from performing their role and religious, moral and humanitarian duties in continuing to support the Palestinian cause and the injustice of the Palestinian people.
The Supreme National Authority for Combating Corruption held a stand to condemn the Israeli aggression on civilian and service facilities in Al-Hodeidah Governorate. During the stand, the head of the Supreme National Authority for Combating Corruption, Judge Mujahid Ahmed Abdullah, condemned the aggression committed by the Zionist-American enemy aircraft on Saturday evening by targeting oil tanks, the power station and the port of Al-Hodeidah, which are civilian, economic and service facilities that meet the needs of all Yemeni citizens. He considered the attack on these facilities a violation of international humanitarian law and a crime that reveals the criminality of the Zionist entity, which led to the martyrdom and injury of dozens of citizens.
According to the Hamas-controlled Health Ministry in Gaza, as of 22 July 2024 at least 39,006 Palestinians had been killed and 89,818 wounded since the start of the war. Another 10,000 are missing and presumed buried in the rubble. while the tabulated KIA number keeps going up, the MIA "buried under rubble" has been stuck at 10,000 for many weeks.
Due to numerous terrorist acts and mortar fire towards the State of Israel from the eastern part of the humanitarian space, the stay in this space has become dangerous. Therefore, on 22 July 2024 the space was adjusted. The adjustment is in relation to accurate intelligence information according to which the terrorist organization Hamas has located terrorist infrastructures in the area defined as a humanitarian space. The early warning is carried out in order to reduce the damage to the civilian population and keep them away from the combat area. The IDF is going to act strongly against the terrorist organizations, therefore calling on the remaining population in the eastern neighborhoods of Khan Yunis to temporarily evacuate to the adapted humanitarian space in Mawasi. The evacuation operations are carried out through SMS messages, recorded voice messages, phone calls, Arabic media broadcasts and announcements. The IDF will continue to act against Hamas, which uses the residents of Gaza as human shields for its terrorist activities and infrastructure.
Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah signed a declaration 22 July 2024 in Beijing on ending a yearslong rift, Chinese state media said today, taking a step toward potentially resolving the deep divide between the sides as the war in Gaza rages on. The declaration by the two heavyweights of Palestinian politics — and other smaller Palestinian groups — to form a unity government for the Palestinian territories is the result of the latest in a series of talks meant to unite the sides. But previous declarations have failed, including a similar deal in 2011, casting doubt over whether the China-sponsored negotiations might actually lead to a resolution.
Harris would not attend Netanyahu's speech to Congress because she has a previously scheduled speech at another event. She refused to chair the joint session of Congress between the Senate and the House of Representatives during Netanyahu's planned speech. The prior arrangement allows her to avoid the position of many Democrats who oppose Israel's practices in its war on Gaza regarding attendance or absence. About 100 members of the progressive bloc in the House of Representatives and the Senate are expected to boycott Netanyahu's speech or protest it in some way.
The most significant thing about Netanyahu's speech to Congress wasn't what he said, which was his usual talking points, but the fact that so many Democrats--about 120--skipped it. Their absence underscores how Netanyahu has alienated much of the Democratic party. The New York Times, in its article about Netanyahu’s speech, not only failed to report that Netanyahu flagrantly lied, but it repeats the lie with no acknowledgment Israeli media had proven it false. Mehdi Hasan fact checked Netanyahu's five biggest lies, on the issues of aid, civilian casualties, Rafah, hostages, and protests.
Around half of the Democrats in the House and Senate skipped the speech. Among those who attended was Michigan Representative Rashida Tlaib, who held up a small sign reading “Guilty of Genocide” and “War criminal” as the Israeli prime minister spoke.
Twelve teenagers and young adults were killed and 40 injured after an attack which hit a football pitch in the Druze settlement of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Netanyahu received approval from the United States for an operation against Hezbollah, according to a report 27 July 2024 by Israeli Channel 14. ‘Mr Netanyahu told a leader of the Druze community in Israel in a phone call that "Hezbollah will pay a heavy price, the kind it has thus far not paid."
Mark Urban noted 29 July 2024 the crisis unfolding in Israel, perhaps a defining one about whether it's a legally based democracy or a faith defined ethno-state. Military Police went to the Sde Teiman base to arrest 9 soldiers accused of abusing Palestinian detainees held there. The soldier/suspects resisted and soon protestors encouraged by rightists in the coalition got the call to head down to the base and prevent their arrest. A brawl developed - and after the suspects were removed to a different base, at Beit Lid, another crowd broke in with the aim of freeing them. So Netanyahu and the military faced a serious challenge. Not for the first time, the PM was hemmed in by his rightist coalition partners. IDF dispatched 2 battalions to the IDF base (Sde Teiman) to put down the huge standoff between local IDF force & allied far right supporters and police sent to investigate the mass torture of Palestinian detainees. Soldiers and Police were totally overwhelmed by far-right demonstrators who had broken into the base and Military Court Complex.
The settlers stormed the Israeli military court in Beit Lid to support IOF soldiers under investigation for torturing and sexually abusing a Palestinian detainee in the Sde Teiman detention center. According to an Israeli Army Radio report, the abuse occurred approximately three weeks ago at Sde Teiman. The victim was discovered at the military base in critical condition and was subsequently transported to a hospital for treatment and surgery. Reports indicate that the detainee was sexually assaulted by nine or ten Israeli soldiers, resulting in severe injury that has left him paralyzed and currently hospitalized.
IDF diverted élite fighters from operational activity inside the Gaza Strip to handle the insurrectionists at the gate of the Beit Lid base. Times of Israel says "several battalions" being sent to the Beit Lid base—"Meanwhile, several IDF companies from the West Bank and others on vacation are being dispatched to the Beit Lid base this evening, and several battalions will be there by tomorrow." According to the Israeli newspaper Maariv, the Israeli army withdrew forces from the Gaza Strip and pushed them towards the Beit Lid camp and nearby areas.
Military police, under the arm of convicted terrorist Itamar Ben Gvir, failed to act. Sources in the army and Shin Bet began to accuse Ben Gvir of responsibility for the police not arriving to disperse the intruders - after 6 hours. Former Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat, today Netanyahu's economy minister, who is still welcomed in New York & Paris meeting rooms, demands (with no right) that the IDF call off the investigation into soldiers suspected of raping a Hamas prisoner. Barkat had a decent reputation as mayor, certainly a reputation for decency and hard work,
Israeli military police canceled the arrest warrants issued against the soldiers accused of gang-raping a Palestinian detainee at the notorious Sde Teiman prison and limited themselves to interrogating them. In the Knesset, MK Ahmad Tibi asked “To insert a stick in a person's rectum, is that legitimate?” MK Milwidsky answered, “Yes! If he is a Nukhba (HAMAS commando), everything is legitimate to do to him!” Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said right-wing protests at army bases were justified.
The Israeli army described the attack on the military base in Beit Lid as a "serious incident constituting a criminal offense and a threat to Israel’s security, and the war effort." As his top ministers engage in sedition during wartime. Max Blumenthal wrote "What was intended as a legal charade to demonstrate to the ICC that Israel could hold its soldiers accountable for crimes – in this case, the gang rape of a prisoner at the Sde Teiman concentration camp – has backfired..."
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had addressed the US Congress in Washington, issuing a stern warning to Iran and its proxy fighters, Hezbollah and Hamas. Though not a formal declaration of war, his speech came very close, notably omitting any mention of a ceasefire. In the days following, a Hezbollah commander and the political leader of Hamas were assassinated, with Iran accusing Israel and promising retaliation. The US has denied any knowledge or involvement in these killings, raising questions about its influence over Israel, which appears diminished, while Netanyahu's resolve to act independently remains strong.
On July 30, Israel claimed it had "eliminated" Fuad Shukr, the Hizballah militant commander Israel alleges was behind the rocket attack that killed 12 Israeli youths in Beirut. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said in a post on the X social media network that Shukr has "directed" attacks by Hizballah. Shukr was wanted by U.S. authorities for his alleged involvement in a 1983 attack on U.S. troops in Beirut. Washington had offered up to $5 million for information on Shukr, who is also known as al-Hajj Mohsin and is on the U.S. terrorist list. "Assassinating the Hamas leader will make negotiations and de-escalation more difficult. Things will become more violent and the situation will worsen, it will not improve," said Areepen Uttarasin, a Thai politician who has been one of the negotiators in talks to free the hostages being held in Gaza by Hamas.
On July 31, Iran said Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of the Palestinian extremist group Hamas, was killed in a raid that it accused Israel of carrying out and which sparked fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said it was investigating the attack that killed the 62-year-old Haniyeh while he was in Tehran to attend the July 30 inauguration ceremony for Iran's new president, Masud Pezeshkian. Haniyeh was killed while staying on the fourth floor of a building in Zafaraniyeh in northern Tehran. The guesthouse is run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps [IRGC] and is part of a large compound, known as Neshat, in an upscale neighborhood on the northern edge of Tehran. Hamas confirmed the news in a post on its Telegram channel on July 31, saying Haniyeh was killed in an "as a result of a treacherous Zionist raid." Senior Hamas' spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri also reacted to the assassination, saying, "We are waging an open war to liberate [the holy occupied city of] al-Quds and are ready to pay any price."
Haniyeh's death came the same day that the United States carried out a strike in Iraq, raising concerns about the possibility of an all-out war in the Middle East. Washington claimed as self-defense the strike inside a base south of Baghdad that is used by Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces. It said the attack killed four members of the group, which contains several Iran-aligned armed militias, and wounded four others.
Pezeshkian said in a statement, less than 24 hours after his inauguration, that Iran "will defend its territorial integrity" after the attack, though he did not say how. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also vowed revenge against Israel over the killing.
Ali Mamouri, a research fellow with Australia's Deakin University and Middle East specialist, said " the existing rules where both sides exercise restraint to a very limited level of engagement will change, and new levels of conflict will arise. ... "We will witness more attacks by Iran's allies in the region on Israeli territory rather than directly from Iran," he added. "I think that the level of tension will escalate and might lead us toward relatively dangerous borders."
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