Operation Iron Swords - Day 219 - 12 May 2024

“At any point, Hamas could have ended this burgeoning tragedy to
surrender and release every hostage. …
Hamas instigated and owns this humanitarian catastrophe.”
Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA)

Contents

NEW - War Termination NEW - Operations NEW - Operations - Gaza NEW - Operations - Judea-Samaria NEW - Operations - Lebanon NEW - Operations - Syria / Iraq NEW - Operations - Yemen UPDATED - Operations Maps NEW - By-Standers NEW - Axis of Resistance NEW - Allied for Democracy UPDATED - By the Numbers

The United Nations Special Rapporteur on Palestine, Francesca Albanese, said that the genocide committed by Israel against the Palestinians is reminiscent of the Holocaust. This came in a speech she delivered yesterday, Saturday, during the opening of the “Maghreb-Mashreq Social Forum” in Tunisia, under the slogan “Palestine is our future... The war of extermination against Gaza represents a challenge to human and democratic values.”

Speaking about the ongoing Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip, Albanese said, "How can we ignore what is happening in Gaza now? This is a tragedy." She pointed to human rights violations in Gaza and the martyrdom of 35,000 people at the hands of Israeli forces, including about 15,000 children, stressing that Israel aims with these attacks to take revenge on all Palestinians in occupied East Jerusalem and the West Bank .

In this context, she called on the international community to take action to stop the Israeli attacks, adding, "I say without hesitation that what is happening in Gaza is not a war, but a genocide, and although Western countries are not comfortable using the word genocide, the genocide in Gaza reminds us of the Holocaust." In her speech before the conference - which concludes today, Sunday - the UN rapporteur touched on the protests against the Israeli attacks in Gaza, saying, "We must support student movements around the world."

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that the massacre is continuing in the Gaza Strip , and that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reached “a level in genocidal methods that arouses the jealousy of Nazi leader Adolf Hitler .” Erdogan added - in an interview with the Greek newspaper Kathimerini published on Sunday, the eve of the visit of Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis to Ankara - that the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) agreed to a ceasefire, but Israel is making excuses and does not want a ceasefire because of what he called its desire to occupy. The entire Gaza Strip.

This comes in the wake of Turkey's recent decision to stop trading with Israel and its announcement to join South Africa's lawsuit before the International Court of Justice against Tel Aviv regarding "genocide" in Gaza. At the time, the Hamas movement welcomed - in a press statement - these Turkish steps, describing them as “brave decisions” and as “an extension and reflection of the position of the Turkish people in support of the struggle of the Palestinian people and their right to freedom and self-determination.”

Erdogan had previously attacked the Israeli government repeatedly as part of an escalation of his rhetoric against it against the backdrop of its war on the Gaza Strip, including describing Netanyahu late last month as “the Hitler of our era,” stressing that Netanyahu and his allies “will not escape punishment.”

In commemoration of the Holocaust , the Israeli newspaper Haaretz published an article by two political analysts in which they discussed definitions of the term, its connotations, and its repercussions on the behavior of the occupying state. The article - written by Israeli author and journalist Akiva Eldar and Professor Daniel Bar Tal, professor of political psychology at Tel Aviv University - criticized what he calls Holocaust traffickers in their effort to make Israel appear as a victim forever in order to gain sympathy from the countries of the world, and to consider everyone who denies the Holocaust as a victim. An enemy of the Jewish people.

The two writers began their joint article by directing arrows of criticism at the current Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu , whom they describe as "the most dangerous leader of the Jewish state" because of his exploitation of the Holocaust anniversary, which was celebrated yesterday, Tuesday, to spread fear of the "Iranian threat." According to them, the attack by the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) on Israel at dawn on Saturday, October 7, 2023, created a new competitor to the Nazi enemy of the Jews, represented by Iran.

Eldar and Bar-Tal tried to draw comparisons between the inability of the Israeli defense establishment in the face of what they described as acts of “murder and rape” on that day, and the Jews who were “herded like sheep” to the “gas chambers” in Auschwitz, the concentration camp and Holocaust theater in the part that was occupied by Germany. Nazism from Poland. According to the article, the Holocaust is not a one-time event in the history of the Jewish people, but rather a term that symbolizes a threatening situation and has become, over the years, a tool in the hands of politicians and those who shape public opinion.

The Holocaust - from the writers' point of view - has no time or place, and can occur at any time, anywhere and in any context, and the common denominator between all of these "holocausts" is the desire to destroy the Jewish people. The article provided a definition of the Holocaust formulated by psychoanalyst Vamik Vukan as “a selected trauma and shared psychosocial perception of a historical event that bequeathed to an entire group a catastrophic and traumatic defeat, loss, humiliation, and even genocide.”

This chosen trauma is embedded in all aspects of life, and is passed on from one generation to another. They can be reactivated in times of threat and stress, thus perpetuating their existence. Jews in Israel always suffer from the feeling that they are victims, a feeling that political analysts believe stems from their exposure to harm at the hands of another group, in violation of the laws of morality. It also - in their opinion - constitutes a situation that suggests the danger facing them from a “cruel” enemy, which gives them a moral justification to harm him without deterrence or mercy.

The concept of victimhood distinguishes between Jews and Palestinians, and gives Israelis a sense of moral superiority and a justification for stripping Palestinians of their humanity. However, Eldar and Bar-Tal warn that this feeling involves three dangerous phenomena: freedom from moral obligation , which allows Jews to ignore moral standards, as they have been victims throughout history, especially in the Holocaust, and it allows them to harm the enemy without taking moral laws into account. . Victimization separates society from feelings of guilt and leaves room only for feelings of anger and revenge.

The second phenomenon is moral entitlement . Being a victim makes the Jews morally entitled to harm anyone who poses a threat to them, and to use any violent means in order to prevent them from being subjected to another attack. The third of these phenomena is what the article calls moral oppression, which does not give other nations the right to preach morality to the Jews, because they (i.e. those nations) chose to stand aside and did not rush to save them from the Holocaust.

Although it is not easy to extinguish the constant feeling of injustice and victimhood, it is becoming more difficult in the midst of the violent conflict that is now raging. In the conclusion of the article, the two authors emphasize that “weaning” from these feelings must begin by changing the ethics of the conflict, which has become entrenched in the school system, the media, and official ceremonies, in an attempt to end it, which first requires replacing the leader “who has few equals” and who is considered to be promoting the role of the victim. His profession, in an apparent reference to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

War Termination

On Saturday, the Israeli Public Broadcasting Authority (KAN) revealed Israel's plan for the future of the Gaza Strip, which it said would soon be presented to the Council of Ministers. According to the Kan evening broadcast, the plan, which was recently discussed by the National Security Council in Israel, includes Israeli civil administration of the Palestinian sector for a period ranging from 6 months to one year.

The coordinator of Israeli government activity in the Palestinian territories will be responsible for managing the Gaza Strip during that period, according to the plan. According to what was reported by "Kan", the provision of public services to the residents of Gaza will be through private Arab companies. The same source stated that this plan came "in light of the IDF's criticism of the political leadership for not making decisions regarding the Gaza Strip after the war."

According to the details of the Israeli plan, control of the Strip will eventually transfer to “local parties that are not hostile” to Israel, without naming them. The Israeli Public Broadcasting Authority said in its report that the security services and political leadership in Israel are holding “talks and meetings with concerned parties to formulate this plan.”

In recent weeks, a new plan has emerged that Israeli officials are discussing, which includes sharing supervision of Gaza with a coalition of Arab countries, in exchange for normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia. Although the war has reached its eighth month, the future of the Gaza Strip after the end of the fighting is still unclear.

Last month, US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, said in his speech during a World Economic Forum event in the Saudi capital, that the Biden administration will continue its months-long endeavor to reach an arrangement regarding Gaza, which has been controlled by Hamas since 2007. Blinken noted that “a lot of work has been done on this matter,” but at the same time stressed that “in the absence of a real political horizon for the Palestinians, it will be very difficult, if not impossible, to have a coherent plan for Gaza itself, so we We are working on that too."

Shortly after Israel launched its crackdown on Hamas following the October 7 attack, the administration of US President Joe Biden began developing a plan for post-war security and governance in the Gaza Strip. American officials suggested that the Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the West Bank, may take over responsibility in Gaza after restructuring this institution.

In an interview with CBS’s “Meet the Nation,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized his belief that Hamas will continue to pose a challenge in Gaza regardless of Israel’s actions in Rafah. Blinken’s remarks come as the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) prepare to dismantle the last remaining Hamas strongholds in Rafah. Speaking on the program, Blinken asserted, “Without a plan for the day after the war, Israel will be left holding the bag on an enduring insurgency because a lot of armed Hamas [terrorists] will be left, no matter what they do in Rafah.” He urged caution, stating, “If they leave and get out of Gaza, as we believe they need to do, then you’re going to have a vacuum that’s likely to be filled by chaos, anarchy, and ultimately by Hamas again."

Operational Update

A recent survey conducted by the Direct Polls Institute sheds light on the opinions of reserve duty officers in Israel regarding the ongoing conflict with Hamas and the situation in Gaza. The survey, commissioned by the Regavim movement, interviewed 512 reservists who served during the Swords of Iron War, representing various segments of Israeli society. The results reveal a significant divergence of views on key issues among the reservists. When asked about the prospect of a hostage deal with Hamas at all costs, a striking 72 percent expressed their opposition, emphasizing their readiness to enter Rafah regardless of the negotiations. Moreover, the survey highlights a strong stance against the entry of humanitarian aid trucks into Gaza, with only 9 percent of respondents supporting the initiative. A staggering 90 percent of reservists oppose such aid, with a third willing to consider alternative terms to ensure that the aid does not reach Hamas.

Operational Update - Gaza

The IDF conducts two types of combat within the Strip. In Khan Yunis, intense divisional combat is underway under the leadership of the 98th Division, which includes the commando forces and the paratrooper brigade, and in the north of the Strip, the IDF conducts targeted raids to eliminate and destroy quality targets, such as command and control targets, tunnels and compounds Dispatch.

The focus of the IDF's fighting is in Khan Yunis, in the south of the Gaza Strip. The city is occupied and intense divisional fighting is taking place above and below the ground between IDF forces and terrorists. So far, about 2,800 terrorists have been eliminated in Khan Yunis - a third of the total strength of Hamas in the city, and two of the four enemy battalions in the area have been dismantled. The IDF estimates that the command and control of the terrorist organization in the city has been dismantled, and most of the operatives are on the run, and make it clear that although the fighting is intense, the resistance the fighters are encountering is far from what it was at the beginning of the fighting in the city, in view of the weakening of the Gaza terrorist organization.

During the last day, aircraft and fighter jets of the Air Force attacked and destroyed more than 150 terrorist targets throughout the Gaza Strip in the coordination and direction of the ground forces. Among the targets attacked are ready-to-launch rocket launchers, terrorist squads and ammunition depots alongside military buildings, observation posts, tunnel shafts and other terrorist infrastructure.

Tonight, Division 98 began an operation in Jabalia in the north of the Gaza Strip, following intelligence information about the presence of terrorists and the restoration of terror infrastructures of the terrorist organization Hamas in the region. Before the entry of the forces, fighter jets and aircraft of the Air Force attacked about 30 terrorist targets in the area and eliminated a number of terrorists from the terrorist organization Hamas.

The military and strategic expert, Colonel Hatem Karim Al-Falahi, believes that the Israeli army’s statements that it will return to work in the Jabalia region indicate that the occupation intends to storm these areas. Al-Falahi said - in the military analysis segment on Al-Jazeera screen - that the presence of large Israeli military crowds in the Zakim area, and the occupation asking residents of the areas near Jabalia camp to leave the place, such as Al-Nour, Al-Nuzha, Al-Rawda, and Al-Salam neighborhoods, is a strong indication that the occupation is preparing to be in these areas. Military operations.

According to the military expert, the occupation draws its plans based on a major error in estimating intelligence information, explaining that the battle of the north and Gaza City lasted more than two months and the occupation has not succeeded in moving it to the third phase of the war so far. Al-Falahi considered the resistance’s success in bombing Beersheba a clear message that the resistance still possesses the missile capabilities that enable it to strike many cities around Gaza and Tel Aviv as well. He stressed that the Israeli military operation in northern Gaza has not achieved its goals for which it was launched so far, as it did not eliminate the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) or its leaders, nor did it enable the occupation army to reach the location of the prisoners.

Regarding the Rafah battles, Colonel Al-Falahi warned that what is happening in Khuza’a and Abasan is an attempt by the occupation army to circumvent or indirectly approach Rafah. He pointed out the need for the resistance to pay attention to the fact that the Sahel region could be a potential landing point for the occupation army, with the intention of confusing the position of the resistance in general, especially after the Israeli War Council took a decision to expand the war in Rafah.

Tomer Almagor reported for N12 News that the operation in Jabaliya and Zaytun began after the army detected attempts by Hamas to return and rehabilitate in those areas. Among the infrastructures that the terrorist organization is restoring are headquarters that are being re-established, weapons that are hidden and concentrations of forces. With the re-entry into Jabaliya and Zeytun, the IDF yesterday (Saturday) called on the residents of the region to temporarily evacuate to shelters in Gaza City. This joins the calls for evacuation in recent days in East Rafah by dropping proclamations, sending text messages, phone calls and media broadcasts in Arabic. In this context, the Gazans were asked to evacuate to the expanded humanitarian space in Mawassi, and so far about 300 thousand Gazans have moved there.

Inside the underground, hundreds of shafts were destroyed and hundreds of Hamas fighters were eliminated. The special forces and units are making significant progress in the tunnels under the city, which was a surprise to the terrorist organization, which did not expect an underground maneuver. The bulk of the heavy fighting is carried out by the 98th Division, which includes the commando units and the paratrooper brigade. In the last two months, significant reserve forces were released, and some of the regular forces were also converted to other missions outside the Strip.

The fighting in Khan Yunis comes after the IDF forces defeated the main Hamas force in Gaza City in the northern Gaza Strip in the first phase of the maneuver. The IDF fighters inflicted significant damage on the terrorist organization's battalions in all areas in the northern Gaza Strip, captured the area and destroyed tunnels and infrastructure. About 7,000 terrorists were killed in the battles in the northern Gaza Strip, including two brigade commanders and 20 other commanders.

After the Hamas forces in the north of the Gaza Strip were defeated, the IDF left the area and settled in the Netzer Corridor, which borders the north of the Gaza Strip, and in the security area near the northern border of the Gaza Strip. From there, the fighters go on raids to destroy high-quality targets and eliminate the terrorist pockets that still remain in Gaza City. The main part of the fighting in this area focuses on the Shatti refugee camp. The IDF's control of the area is not expressed in the presence in the area, but in the ability to operate relatively freely and reach anywhere in the area.

In the two months that have passed since the north of the Gaza Strip was conquered, and after the IDF's focus shifted to Khan Yunis, the security establishment recognizes attempts by the terrorist organization to return to civilian rule in the Gaza City area. The political echelon has not come up with a plan to control the area and "pass the baton", and dozens of terrorists are trying to take over for the humanitarian aid that came in and to control the 200,000 Palestinians who remained in the area.

Between Gaza City and Khan Yunis are the Center Camps, where fighting is also taking place between the IDF and the battalions of the Gaza terrorist organization. The IDF has also defeated the bulk of Hamas's forces in the camps, and the fighting in them is carried out through surgical operations. However, the IDF avoided entering the city of Deir al-Balah, due to the high population concentration there.

The most significant achievements of the IDF so far are the elimination of about 25% of Hamas terrorists (about 10,000 terrorists), the injury and disarmament of another 25%, gaining control over the northern Gaza Strip and the elimination of the bulk of the force in Khan Yunis. In addition, the IDF succeeded in To reduce rocket fire from the Strip by about 90% and destroy strategic tunnels. Another significant achievement of the IDF is the return of Hamas from behind - from an army-like organization to a guerrilla organization. 18 and a half of the terrorist organization's 24 battalions in the Gaza Strip have been disbanded, and now the fighters face mainly small squads of terrorists, rather than organized attacks by a company or battalion.

About 20,000 Hamas terrorists remain alive and capable, so the military power of the terrorist organization has not yet been decided. In addition, his senior officials, including Mohammad Daf and Yahya Sinaver, are still alive, and according to a report in the Wall Street Journal, about 80% of the tunnels in the Gaza Strip have not yet been destroyed. These figures indicate that the IDF still has a lot of work to do before the terrorists and their couriers in the Gaza Strip are defeated.

As for tunnels, the army's strategy is to deal with strategic or significant tunnels in terms of size or purpose. These are mainly large tunnels that can allow a large amount of terrorists or hostages to stay and pass between strategic points. The army has made progress in destroying these tunnels, but it is a slow and complex process, for which the IDF has developed innovative warfare methods.

Another challenge facing the army is the occupation of the southern Gaza Strip, where the city of Rafah is located. This task may be particularly complex since many Hamas forces have fled towards the last city where intense fighting has not yet taken place, and because a significant part of the civilian population in the Gaza Strip is in the city, which may make fighting more difficult. The IDF makes it clear that despite the challenges the area faces, Rafah is also expected to face a strong divisional attack, similar to what was carried out in Khan Yunis.

In the area of the southern border of the Strip, according to the Guardian's analysis, there are approximately 1.9 million Palestinian refugees who left the centers of fighting. Most of them live there in crowded tent cities, and the IDF will have to find a solution to move the civilian population to a place so that it can conduct combat, or alternatively to fight in a complex, dense and full of non-involved terrain.

In a joint operation by the Shin Bet and the IDF, the terrorist Naim Gol, a military operative in the terrorist organization Hamas in the Shati Battalion in the Gaza Strip, was eliminated last Friday. As part of his activities, he was involved in firing rockets towards Israeli territory and was also entrusted with the possession of the late Corporal Noa Marciano, who was kidnapped during the events of 10/7 and murdered in Shifa Hospital. Also, three months ago, another terrorist who took part in the possession of the late Corporal Noa Marciano was eliminated. The IDF shares in the grief of the Marciano family and will continue to accompany them. The IDF and the Shin Bet will continue to act resolutely to locate and thwart military terrorist operatives, who carry out acts of terror against Israeli citizens, and are also involved in kidnapping and murder incidents.

At the same time, the forces of Division 162 under the intelligence guidance of AMN and the Shin Bet continue their activity focused on the east and the Rafah crossing from the Gazan side. During the activity, the combat team fighters of the Givati Brigade located and destroyed a number of tunnel shafts and rocket launchers that were ready to be launched into the territory of the country. In addition, the fighters of the 401st Brigade combat team identified ten terrorists from the terrorist organization Hamas leaving a terrorist infrastructure and carrying weapons. Air force aircraft and combat team fighters attacked the terrorists and eliminated them.

In Zeytun in the north of the Gaza Strip, the operations of the 99th Division continue against infrastructure and Hamas terrorists in the area. During the last day, the fighters eliminated a number of terrorists in face-to-face encounters, in air force aircraft strikes, additional terrorists were eliminated and weapons and terrorist infrastructure were destroyed. An Air Force aircraft eliminated two terrorists who shot at the forces operating in the area.

Following the alert that was activated in the Kerem Shalom area, the air defense fighters successfully intercepted two launches from a Rafah towards Kerem Shalom. No damage and no casualties. The IDF is operating in the Netzer area since military activities that could endanger its forces, as well as Hamas combat tunnels, have been identified there. Handling these terrorist infrastructures takes time, as it is a dense area with residential buildings of 5-6 stories. The IDF chooses carefully and in accordance with the about the goals and objectives, with emphasis being given to those in which the enemy's ability is the highest.

The significance of the mission to carve out the strip and expand the corridor lies in the achievement of repelling the enemy and driving him away, which is the broad purpose of the move. The Zaytun neighborhood and the central camps are strategic areas with a high potential for Hamas to reorganize, and it is possible that the IDF will need a larger SDF in order to overcome the limitations it encounters. According to estimates, the activity will last a week to ten days, when everything may change depending on the situation. Division 99 operates in the Hamas production areas in the western part of the center's camps, and the forces carry out successful targeted countermeasures, thanks, among other things, to good intelligence.

An IDF spokesman's update reported the IDF "continues precise and focused operations against Hamas in Rafah as part of our efforts to achieve a continuous dismantling of Hamas, and to return all our abductees to their homes. Our operations against Hamas in Rafah remain limited in scope and focus on tactical progress, adjustments on the ground and military achievements with the aim of avoiding activity in densely populated areas.

The fighting in the area is expected to be very complex, since most of the terrorist organization's remaining forces are concentrated there, and they have nowhere else to escape within the Gaza Strip. Challenge Added to the fighting will be dealing with the huge numbers of refugees and the severe humanitarian crisis, and operations may be carried out to evacuate the refugees to other areas in the Strip.

"Since the beginning of our targeted operation against Hamas in Rafah, we have eliminated dozens of terrorists, uncovered underground terrorist tunnels and many weapons. Before our actions, we call on the citizens to temporarily move towards humanitarian areas, and to stay away from the combat zones to which Hamas is pushing them. Our war is against Hamas, not against the residents of Gaza. During the last few days, they coordinated the entry of 200,000 liters of fuel through the Kerem Shalom crossing; We enabled and coordinated the opening of a new field hospital in the center of Gaza, and we are working to enable the flow of humanitarian aid to Rafah via the Salah El Din road.

"Over the past few days, we have reminded all of us why our fight against Hamas is necessary: Hamas fired rockets from a launcher at the humanitarian aid crossing in Kerem Shalom - the same crossing through which Israel allows humanitarian aid to be brought in to the residents of Gaza. On Friday night, Hamas fired 9 rockets from a rocket launcher at the city of Beer Sheva in Israel, hitting a children's playground. We will continue to fulfill our mission until a lasting decision is reached by Hamas, and return our abductees home."

The Israeli army continues to ask residents and displaced people to evacuate specific areas of the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip and move towards the “humanitarian area in Al-Mawasi,” amid Palestinian accusations of pushing residents toward “death” and warnings of a “new humanitarian disaster.” Speaking to Al-Hurra website, the Israeli army spokesman, Avichay Adraee, says that “before the launch of the military operation in eastern Rafah, residents were warned and invited to move to an “expanded humanitarian area in Al-Mawasi.”

The Israeli army took several measures on the humanitarian front, including opening an eighth field hospital in the Deir al-Balah area, and coordinating the transfer of some hospitals from Rafah to the expanded humanitarian zone between Khan Yunis and Al-Mawasi, according to Adraee. On Saturday, the Israeli army said that approximately 300,000 Rafah residents headed towards Al-Mawasi since it entered the east of the city on May 6 until now.

The Israeli army asked Palestinians in other areas in the city of Rafah, south of the Gaza Strip, to evacuate their places and go to Al-Mawasi, in another indication that Israel may move forward with its plans to launch a ground attack on Rafah. The new evacuation orders towards Al-Mawasi included the Rafah and Al-Shaboura camps and the Al-Adari, Al-Jeneina and Khirbet Al-Adas neighborhoods.

Al-Mawasi is a small agricultural area, representing only 3 percent of the area of the Gaza Strip. It is located on the coastal strip several kilometers long, and extends from Deir al-Balah in the north, passing through Khan Yunis Governorate, to Rafah Governorate in the south, at a depth of approximately one kilometer. Al-Mawasi is about 28 kilometers away from Gaza City, and its residential units do not exceed about 100 units, and its population is about 9,000 people.

Israeli political analyst, Joab Stern, points out that Al-Mawasi is “an open and relatively empty area, not densely populated, and has no real estate, mosques, tunnels, or schools,” so the displaced can “camp there” as a “temporary” solution only. The reason for evacuating residents from eastern Rafah is “to allow the Israeli army to fight Hamas without targeting civilians in Rafah,” and everyone who will remain in the battle areas “will be dealt with,” so the alternative is “displacement away from the military confrontation line,” according to what he told the “Al-Hurra” website. .

There are about 1.4 million Palestinians in the crowded city of Rafah, according to United Nations figures, most of whom have been displaced from other areas since the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas on October 7. The United Nations and international organizations warn that the Al-Mawasi area is already suffering from overcrowding and is unable to receive additional numbers of displaced people. It does not have infrastructure and it is not easy to obtain drinking water.

Therefore, Palestinian political analyst, Ayman Al-Raqab, points out that Al-Mawasi is a very small area and cannot accommodate this number of displaced people due to the evacuation from the city of Rafah. The Al-Mawasi area "is not qualified and has no infrastructure or clean drinking water," but the Israeli army "does not care about that and leaves the people to face their fate," according to what he told the "Al-Hurra" website.

The Palestinian political analyst and head of the European Council for International Relations and Consultations, based in Paris, Adel al-Ghoul, agrees with him, and he criticizes the Israeli army’s demands for Rafah residents to evacuate towards al-Mawasi. The area accommodates 100 to 150 thousand people, and talking about more than that is “fourth impossible,” as it has already been “densely populated for 4 months,” according to Al-Ghoul’s words to the “Al-Hurra” website. “There is no humanitarian zone, and this is a false Israeli claim. Field hospitals and clean drinking water do not exist,” the Palestinian political analyst confirms.

Al-Ghoul explains that the refugee housing areas in Al-Mawasi are merely “tents that were established individually and through personal efforts, or through non-governmental institutions.” There are no places to accommodate the displaced, and currently there is a very large humanitarian crisis, as those who try to escape from eastern and central Rafah cannot find a final place to set up tents in Al-Mawasi, according to Al-Ghoul.

Al-Raqab confirms what Al-Ghoul mentioned, and describes the Israeli evacuation warnings from the Rafah areas as “disorganized and chaotic.” Residents are being asked to leave for “a new place of displacement, they do not know where,” as if they are moving “from death to death,” according to Al-Raqab. The Palestinian political analyst warns of the worsening humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip, where the majority of its population faces “a major humanitarian crisis, hunger, distress, the spread of diseases, and food shortages,” which has made Gaza “unfit for life.”

For his part, Stern points out that the Israeli request for residents to evacuate reveals “the intention to continue the battles” in light of Hamas setting “conditions and not softening its position on the deal.” Regardless of whether or not there are hospitals or the existence of areas where residents can “camp,” the ones who pay the price for the continuation of battles and Hamas’ failure to “soften its position so far” are the civilian population, according to the Israeli political analyst. The displaced are already suffering from a major humanitarian crisis, and the result will be disastrous for the Palestinian population in light of the continuation of the war in Gaza and the failure to reach a deal, because displacement towards Mawasi or elsewhere represents a risk that amounts to “death,” according to Stern.

Is the military operation still “limited” or has it become “comprehensive”? Questions accompany the “new evacuation” demands directed by the Israeli army to residents of several neighborhoods in different areas of the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. Why is the scope of these operations expanding? What are the causes and repercussions of this? On Saturday, the Israeli army asked Palestinians in other areas in the city of Rafah, south of the Gaza Strip, to evacuate their places and go to what it calls the expanded humanitarian zone in “Al-Mawasi,” in another indication that Israel may move forward with its plans to launch a ground attack on Rafah. The "new evacuation" orders included the Rafah and Shaboura camps and the Al-Adari, Al-Jeneina and Khirbet Al-Adas neighborhoods, according to what was announced by the Israeli army spokesman, Avichay Adraee.

Speaking to Al-Hurra website, Adraee pointed out that the operation in Rafah was “limited in size until this moment, and was focused on the eastern neighborhoods of the city.” On Saturday, the Israeli army expanded the area from which it wanted to evacuate the civilian population, moving from a “battlefield” to the “expanded humanitarian” Al-Mawasi area, according to Adraee. The operation aims to dismantle Hamas' military capabilities and is still "limited in size" and is concentrated in "east of Rafah," where "dozens of the movement's members" were killed and tunnels and combat means were found, according to an Israeli army spokesman.

The Israeli army announced that "nearly 300,000" people were displaced from the crowded eastern neighborhoods of the city in the south of the Gaza Strip, since it entered this area on May 6, after calls to residents to evacuate. There are about 1.4 million Palestinians in the crowded city of Rafah, according to United Nations figures, most of whom have been displaced from other areas since the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas on October 7.

In defiance of international warnings against launching a “major attack in Rafah,” the Israeli army has been carrying out incursions into the east of the city since Tuesday, after ordering residents to evacuate the area. The Israeli military and strategic expert, Kofi Lavie, points out that Israeli forces will enter every area and neighborhood where there are members of the Hamas movement. There are members of Hamas present in several areas in Rafah, and the Israeli army must reach them and “kill” them, and the matter will continue until “the movement is completely eliminated,” no matter what it takes, according to what he told the Al-Hurra website.

Lavie describes the Gaza Strip as a “closed cage,” and wherever there are “Hamas saboteurs,” they will be pursued and eliminated, if necessary, continuing military operations for a week, a month, a year, or whatever the length of time,” according to the former Israeli army officer.

But on the other hand, Palestinian political analyst, Muhammad Abu Mahadi, points out that “the war has entered a new phase, after the Israeli army expanded its operations in Rafah.” Israel seeks to "create tragic conditions inside the Gaza Strip," and the goal is to "displace the Palestinians outside the Strip," and thus the Israeli army seeks to achieve those goals in "one way or another," according to what he told the "Al-Hurra" website. Abu Mahadi points out that “Israeli forces have already occupied the Rafah crossing and half of the border city,” causing a humanitarian catastrophe that will lead to a “coming famine” similar to what happened in northern Gaza during the recent period.

Hani Al-Jamal, a researcher specializing in the Arab-Israeli conflict, monitors several indicators of “the Israeli forces expanding their military operation to include several areas in Rafah” for several reasons. The Israeli army is trying to "undermine the rehabilitation of Hamas' military capabilities in Rafah, after monitoring the launching of rockets from the area into some Israeli areas, which caused the death of Israeli soldiers," according to what he told the Al-Hurra website.

Al-Jamal believes that the Israeli army is expanding its operations to “achieve a victory against the interior of Israel and strengthen the position of the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.” The expansion of the military operation aims to “increase pressure on Hamas to accept Israeli conditions for the release of the hostages, or cause these military operations to find and liberate them,” according to Al-Jamal. He points out that the "expansive Israeli military operations" aim to put pressure on mediators such as the United States and Egypt in order to "pressure Hamas" to "completely" release the hostages without waiting for the stages of the Egyptian paper agreement.

For months, Netanyahu has been threatening to invade Rafah, which he considers "the last stronghold of Hamas." With the launch of the “limited” Israeli military operation in the city, Egypt condemned the Israeli army’s movements and warned of the “consequences of escalation” in the city located on the Egyptian border. Therefore, the former Egyptian Military Intelligence Undersecretary, Major General Tamer Al-Shahawi, confirms that any “changes or instability” in the Gaza Strip in general and in the city of Rafah in particular “affects Egypt’s national security, and affects the Egyptian interior, both negatively and positively.” The Israeli army did not achieve "any military success in the Gaza Strip. Hamas was not eliminated, and the kidnapped persons were not recovered, which prompted Israel to expand its operations in Rafah," as Al-Shahawi explains in his interview with Al-Hurra website.

At the present time, Israel is behaving “with extreme barbarism and does not take into account the impact of its military movements on the country with which it has a peace agreement (Egypt),” according to the former Egyptian military intelligence agent. But at the same time, Al-Shahawi asserts that “Israel is still trying not to anger Cairo, while the Egyptian authorities are making a lot of efforts to exercise restraint,” despite what is happening on Egypt’s borders.

Egypt is the first Arab country to sign a peace agreement with Israel on March 26, 1979, a year after the signing of the Camp David Accords in 1978. Under the peace agreement, Cairo was able to recover the Sinai Peninsula, which Israel occupied in 1967, and Egypt fought a war to regain it in 1973. Rafah, adjacent to the Egyptian border, is filled with displaced people who fled from other areas in the Gaza Strip, which raises Cairo's fears of "the displacement of civilians" towards the Sinai Peninsula if "military operations expand in the city." Therefore, Al-Gamal warns that “the expansion of Israeli military operations may disperse the Palestinian population blocs, threatening Egyptian border security, and thus Cairo will intensify the presence of its forces on the border in Sinai.”

But Lafi confirms that the Israeli military operation “may include any area in Rafah based on security and intelligence information.” Before any military operation, residents will be warned to “go to safe areas” and evacuate, and anyone who does not evacuate will be “suspected of committing acts of sabotage and will therefore be dealt with,” according to the Israeli military and strategic expert. Lafi does not believe that “expanding military operations in Rafah may cause any problem with Egypt, because it knows the danger of (Hamas, affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood).”

On the other hand, Al-Shahawi stresses that “the expansion of military operations and the harm to the population in Rafah affects Egyptian national security.” The former Egyptian military intelligence agent sends a message to the Israeli side, saying: “Israel should not test Cairo’s patience, as you have already crossed all limits.”

Operational Update - Judea-Samaria

Clashes broke out at dawn on Sunday between resistance fighters and Israeli occupation forces in Balata Camp in Nablus, in the northern West Bank , while settlers carried out new attacks on Palestinians. Al Jazeera's correspondent reported that Israeli forces stormed the camp and deployed snipers in a number of buildings, noting that a bulldozer removed barriers at the entrances to the camp. Activists said that clashes broke out between resistance fighters and the invading forces, while the Palestinian Al-Aqsa Channel reported that an Israeli drone bombed a site in the camp. For its part, the Palestinian Red Crescent said that a Palestinian boy was injured by live bullets fired by occupation soldiers during the storming of Balata camp.

Israeli forces early stormed the city of Jericho and the Al-Arroub camp, north of Hebron. Al Jazeera's correspondent said that the Israeli army also stormed the city of Bethlehem in the southern West Bank early today.

In simultaneous developments, the reporter reported that settlers set fire to a house in the village of Duma, south of Nablus, in the northern West Bank, at dawn today. Activists reported that the attackers wrote anti-Palestinian slogans on the walls. A group of extremist settlers also stormed the outskirts of the town of Sinjil, north of Ramallah, and attacked a house and a vehicle in the town. Eyewitnesses reported that a group of settlers stormed the outskirts of the town, surrounded a house, attacked a house and a vehicle parked in front of it, and smashed its windows. The witnesses added that they spotted a vehicle carrying a group of settlers withdrawing from the area towards one of the settlements near the town.

Al Jazeera's correspondent also reported that settlers burned the house of citizen Fathi Dawabsha in the village of Duma, southeast of Nablus, and wrote racist slogans on its walls. Also, settlers attacked sheep herders and farmers in the village of Al-Mufaqara in Masafer Yatta, south of Hebron, assaulting them and preventing them from reaching their pastures. It is noteworthy that settler attacks have increased in recent months as part of a broader escalation carried out by the occupation forces in the West Bank since the resistance launched Operation Al-Aqsa Flood.

Operational Update - Lebanon

Fighter jets of the Air Force attacked two launching positions of the terrorist organization Hezbollah in the areas of the villages of Halta and Hammam. In addition, two terrorist infrastructures of the organization were attacked in the Al-Khariba area. During the day, a number of launches from the territory of Lebanon were detected that crossed into different areas in the north of the country, there were no casualties. IDF forces attacked the sources of the shooting.

The Beirut newspaper "Al-Diyar" publishes, according to sources in the organization, that after a series of in-depth discussions, it was agreed to change the patterns of operation in view of the significant losses suffered by Hezbollah and the other organizations working alongside it. According to the newspaper's military commentator, Michel Nasr, the top of Hezbollah has come to the conclusion that it must strive to reduce losses on the Lebanese side and therefore the following steps are being taken:

• Hezbollah withdrew its forces from around the border line with Israel, and now it only operates small squads of 3-4 fighters near the line for observation and target identification purposes.
• Instead of relying first and foremost on launching anti-tank missiles, as Hezbollah did for many months, priority is now given to the use of UAVs launched from hiding places close to the border, in a way that makes it difficult for the IDF's air defense system and fighter jets to hit them. At the same time, to increase the use In short- and medium-range rockets, the "launch and forget" method came to the conclusion that Kornet missile units are exposed to immediate Israeli response fire.
• Hezbollah has decided, according to this publication, to refrain, for the time being, from attempting to attack Israeli planes flying at low altitude in the skies of Lebanon so as not to change the "rules of the campaign".
• It is also claimed that Hezbollah seeks to infiltrate squads of its people across the border to improve intelligence gathering and assist in the selection of targets.

The Lebanese commentator comments that there is a dispute regarding the change of the operating patterns as he describes them between the generation of veteran commanders of Hezbollah and commanders from the younger generation, but does not specify the nature of this dispute. Hassan Nasrallah meanwhile decided to give a speech tomorrow (Monday), the eve of Israel's Independence Day.

The current war remains largely geographically limited, compared to the last war that Hezbollah fought against Israel in 2006. But experts say that it has turned into something resembling a “war of attrition” against Hezbollah after months of fighting and the number of its human losses approaching its losses. In the “July War” of 2006, the number is now close to 300 dead, noting that the war that took place 18 years ago resulted in the killing of 350 party members.

In exchange for the exhaustion of Hezbollah, concern continues in Israel about the attacks emanating from Lebanon, the latest of which was yesterday by launching two drones at a military base. While the confrontations continued in the south of the country at a slower pace than in previous days, the Deputy Secretary-General of Hezbollah asked: Sheikh Naeem Qassem, in his speech during a celebration in Beirut on Friday: “Did you not notice how the performance on the southern front changed and the Mujahideen brothers benefited from the lessons and lessons learned and from the things that were used recently, so they addressed some of them and revealed certain capabilities?!”

He added: “In all wars in the world, when the war ends, they study the positives and negatives and address the negatives for the next war. We studied the pros and cons since the first two months and made the necessary adjustments so that there would be an important achievement, and this is what happened by the Mujahideen.”

The head of the Middle East Center for Strategic Studies, retired Brigadier General Dr. Hisham Jaber, stated to Asharq Al-Awsat that “The current war is a war of attrition. Hezbollah started the war and got involved in it, and it can no longer respond to Israeli demands and conditions, because that will harm it in front of its audience and in front of the Lebanese, and therefore it has no interest today except to continue and withstand.”

Jaber added: “But, we must not forget that the party has only revealed a small percentage of the weapons it possesses, whether air defense or sea defense weapons, and precision missiles, which are likely to number 10,000,” explaining that “Al-Radwan’s forces have not moved yet.” In addition, on the other hand, the Israelis have no interest in a ground invasion of Lebanon, especially since Hezbollah has gained combat experience in its war in Syria, and it can survive because its environment is different from the Israeli environment, which does not accept large numbers of displaced people and the disruption of all aspects of life in the north. In addition to the Israeli army being on alert for 7 months.”

For her part, former UN diplomat Brigitte Kheir says, “The prospects for the battle in the south have begun to become clear with the failure of initiatives seeking to limit military operations, the retreat of (Hezbollah) to the Litani borders, and the phased implementation of UN Resolution No. 1701,” noting in a statement to “ Asharq Al-Awsat, "the failure of these efforts portends the possibility of expanding the scope of Israeli bombing and raids, and the danger facing Lebanon, which is sovereignly paralyzed and exposed in security, as has become clear through the chaos of militias of different affiliations in the south, reminiscent of the 'Fatah Land' scenario during the 1980s, which caused the invasion of... Lebanon in 1982.

Khair believes that “the possibility of curbing the armed elements outside the control of the crumbling state is still possible, despite its difficulty, to block any Israeli action that will use these attacks from Lebanon as an excuse to expand the war,” stressing that “international and regional efforts must be met by a caretaker government.” Businesses take a more sober and sovereign stance.”

Operational Update - Syria / Iraq

Iraq's Islamic Resistance launched a cruise missile attack on a southwestern airbase within occupied territories, marking another show of support for Palestine, the anti-terror coalition stated on Saturday. The strike targeted "Ramon Airbase" with an "advanced Arqab cruise missile," housing several warplane and helicopter squadrons, continuing their campaign against occupation and in solidarity with Gaza.

The Islamic Resistance, an umbrella group of anti-terror fighters, declared their latest operation in a statement released on Saturday. This action specifically targeted the "Ramon Airbase," utilizing an "advanced Arqab cruise missile." Currently, the airbase accommodates three warplane squadrons and two helicopter gunship squadrons. In their statement, the Iraqi coalition emphasized the operation's alignment with their ongoing resistance against occupation, support for Gaza, and retaliation against the Israeli regime's atrocities towards Palestinian civilians, including children, women, and the elderly. Since October 7 of the previous year, the group has executed numerous operations against the occupied territories, initiated by the Israeli regime's genocidal war on the Gaza Strip.

Closing their statement, the Iraqi resistance affirmed their commitment to persistently targeting the enemy's strongholds. Qais al-Khazali, secretary-general of the Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq movement, a constituent of the Iraqi resistance, emphasized the group's readiness for war against the occupying regime. He stressed that the resistance groups have taken on the responsibility of addressing the Palestinian issue, relieving the Iraqi government from any military obligation in this regard.

Operational Update - Yemen

Maps

All maps are lies. “Not only is it easy to lie with maps, it is essential,” wrote cartographer Mark Monmoneir in his book How to Lie with Maps. He showed that condensing complex, three-dimensional spaces onto a two-dimensional sheet of paper [in old days] is bound to be reductive. But it is impossible to comprehend the war in Gaza without reference to maps, otherwise the entire conflict is reduced to an endless series of meaningless acts of random violence and the suffering of civilians. The first characteristic of guerrilla warfare is the loss of a front line. Evidently, different mappers have different ideas of how to depict the war in Gaza, notably those that seek to depict Israeli progress in the ground campaign. Part of the problem is latency. The news that forms the basis of the maps takes time to filter out to mappers, and the cartographers take time in crafting their maps, and it takes time to curate them. These processes are uneven among mappers, so their maps may differ in detail. Probably there is some ideological bias, or at least thematic apperception, which is understandable in wartime. It may come as no surprise that al-Jazeera maps depict rather less Israeli territorial progress than other sources. Finally, there remains the epistemological question of just exactly what are the colored in areas depicting. Naively, this might be understood as areas of Israeli control, that are no longer contested by the HAMAS. Or possibly these are areas of Israeli presence, in many of which the possibility of an RPG-wielding HAMAS militant popping out of a tunnel unexpectedly remains a live possibility. With the "zero-range" combat characterized by small unit tactics on both sides, maps may be prey to a fallacy of misplaced concreteness.

Bystanders

Egypt's announcement to join South Africa in the lawsuit it filed before the International Court of Justice against Israel on charges of committing the crime of "genocide" came on Sunday, after a series of events that ended with Israeli tanks entering the Rafah border area and raising the Israeli flag. Raising the flag on Egypt's borders "provoked" Cairo, which began taking steps to express its anger at the Israeli move. These steps also cast a shadow on bilateral relations and the peace treaty that has existed between the two countries for decades.

Egyptian Israeli affairs expert, Tariq Fahmy, believes that Egypt’s joining the case brought before international justice is a “symbolic first step” that will be followed by additional steps. However, Jalal Banna, a security affairs analyst based in Israel, believes that Egypt is “not serious” about its intentions to join because it is “in full and complete security coordination with Israel.” Bana told Al-Hurra website, “If this decision would have affected Egyptian and Israeli security interests, Cairo would not have taken it. The Egyptian state can put pressure on Israel with stronger and greater means than its joining the lawsuit, especially since the Israeli-Egyptian security and strategic coordination is very large.”

On Sunday, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs told Masria that the intervention in the lawsuit filed against Israel comes “in light of the worsening severity and scope of the Israeli attacks in the Gaza Strip, the intensification of the direct targeting of civilians, the destruction of the infrastructure in the Strip, and the push of the Palestinians to be displaced and displaced from their land.” The statement pointed out that "those attacks led to an unprecedented humanitarian crisis and created unlivable conditions in Gaza, in flagrant violation of the provisions of international law, international humanitarian law, and the Fourth Geneva Convention of 1949 for the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War."

The statement continued: “Egypt called on Israel to comply with its obligations as the occupying power, and to implement the provisional measures issued by the International Court of Justice, which require ensuring the entry of humanitarian and relief aid in a manner sufficient to meet the needs of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, and for the Israeli forces not to commit any violations against the Palestinian people as a people.” He shall enjoy protection in accordance with the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.”

In January, the court called on Israel to refrain from any actions that could fall under the Convention on the Prevention of the Crime of Genocide, and asked it to ensure that its forces do not commit acts of genocide against the Palestinians. The UN's highest court allows states to intervene and express their opinions. Several countries said they would also seek to intervene in the case, such as Türkiye, Nicaragua, Colombia and Libya.

The Egyptian announcement came after a high-ranking security source said that Cairo refused to coordinate with Israel in the entry of aid from the Rafah crossing due to “the unacceptable Israeli escalation and held it responsible for the deterioration of the situation in the Gaza Strip before all parties.” Israeli forces stormed and took control of the Palestinian side of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt, and Israeli tanks also penetrated some eastern neighborhoods of Rafah. Cairo informed Israel of the “danger of the escalation.” A security source told Al-Hurra correspondent in Cairo, on Saturday, that Egypt had raised the readiness levels of the Egyptian Armed Forces from the normal state to the extreme state, in the northeastern strategic direction facing Sinai, adjacent to the Gaza Strip. Egyptian security analyst, Mohamed Abdel Wahed, said in statements to Al-Hurra website that Egypt was keen during the last period to play the role of mediator impartially and balance between the parties, so it felt embarrassed by the Israeli operations that amount to “genocide,” while Israel is “determined to embarrass the leadership.” politics in front of its people, the Arab region, and the Palestinians.”

He adds that Israel did not only storm Rafah, but also other areas in the north and center, and entering Rafah “helps in the oppressive migration of the population of Gaza,” and threatens Egyptian national security and the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty and its protocol, which restricts the number and size of forces present on the border between the two sides, which is An order that “Israel did not abide by.” He points out that all of these matters “provoked Cairo and it changed its position completely after it became clear to it that Israel was not serious, and that mediation constituted a burden on it and on Egyptian national security.”

Egyptian political science professor, Tarek Fahmy, told Al-Hurra website that the Egyptian move towards the Court of Justice is “a first step among the steps that Egypt is arranging to respond to the unilateral measures taken by Israel in the Salah al-Din Corridor (Philadelphia).” He points out that "there is a crisis and tension" as evidenced by Egypt's failure to respond to Israeli demands, including security coordination, because it "does not want to legitimize what is happening and because if it coordinated with the entry of aid, it would have recognized the fait accompli." He believes that Egypt seeks to "impose direct deterrence by confronting Israel."

On Sunday, the Israeli Broadcasting Authority said that discussions took place today with the participation of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, regarding the fear that the International Court of Justice in The Hague would issue an order to stop the war in the Gaza Strip, especially with Egypt announcing its intention to support South Africa’s request.

For his part, the Israeli analyst, Bana, suggested that the Egyptian move came only because of “the bad personal relations between Egypt and Netanyahu, especially since the latter heads the most right-wing and extremist government coalition in the history of Israel.”

He also believed that “if Egypt had joined the lawsuit, the matter would have been done in complete coordination with the American administration, that is, with the country that has the closest relationship with Israel, and it may be an indirect message from Washington to the Israeli government, and an indication that the lawsuit in the International Court may expand, and from here In the view of the American administration, the matter may pose a threat to the senior leaders of the State of Israel.”

He believed that this decision “may be directed at the Egyptian people more than any other party to absorb popular anger, especially since official Egypt has refused to open the crossings to the Palestinians from Gaza, and is fully coordinating everything related to the entry of anything, especially humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip.” This means, according to Banna, that the Egyptian leadership is “aware of popular anger and the street’s demand to provide aid to the Palestinian people and restrict Egyptian-Israeli security coordination.”

The editor-in-chief of the Egyptian Al-Ahram newspaper, Ashraf Al-Ashry, says that Egypt seeks to exert pressure on Israel, in light of the existing tension. Among the plans proposed, according to Al-Ashry, is to force Israel to abandon the project to storm Rafah and continue to close the crossing, especially since this would increase tension and escalation in the region and may affect relations. He adds that Egypt wants to prevent Israel from embarking on an expanded operation in Rafah, and to pressure it to return to negotiations and accept the Egyptian and Qatari proposals under the auspices of the American side.

The Egyptian side hopes that there will be a change in Israeli behavior in the coming hours, and a change in the rules of engagement in the Rafah area, and at the same time setting new rules and conditions to save the negotiations, according to Al-Ashry. According to the editor-in-chief of Al-Ahram newspaper, Egypt believes that there is an opportunity to save the negotiations, especially since the proposed approaches satisfy Hamas and Israel at the same time to stop the escalation.

Egypt was the first Arab country to sign a peace agreement with Israel on March 26, 1979, a year after the signing of the Camp David Accords in 1978. Under the peace agreement, Cairo was able to recover the Sinai Peninsula, which Israel occupied in 1967, and Egypt fought a war to regain it in 1973. Rafah, adjacent to the Egyptian border, is filled with displaced people who fled from other areas in the Gaza Strip, which raises Cairo's fears of "the displacement of civilians" towards the Sinai Peninsula if "military operations expand in the city."

The Israeli newspaper Haaretz said that the army's control of the Rafah crossing means that Israel will occupy Gaza again, which may have repercussions according to international law, and complicate relations with neighboring Egypt. Haaretz reported in an analysis that the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the Israeli army’s incursion and control of the Rafah crossing, describing it as a “dangerous escalation” that threatens ceasefire efforts. Cairo also considered that the move endangers the lives of millions of Palestinians who depend on the passage of humanitarian aid.

An Israeli newspaper said that the army’s control of the Rafah crossing means that Israel is occupying Gaza again, which may have repercussions according to international law and complicate relations with neighboring Egypt. Egypt is also examining the legal meaning of the entry of large military forces into the region, which is supposed to be demilitarized according to the Camp David Accords, according to the newspaper.

Israeli political analyst Eli Nissan hopes that Egypt's entry into the International Court of Justice case will not affect the court's decision because if a ruling is issued against Israel, "this will help Hamas in its war against Israel and it will not have the ability to defend itself." Regarding the impact on relations between the two countries after the Egyptian move, Nissan told Al-Hurra website, “The two countries are governed by a peace treaty, and Egypt has interests with Israel, does not want the war to continue, and does not want to invade Rafah, but Israel must defend itself.” Nissan said that Hamas belongs to the Muslim Brotherhood, which was banned by Egypt because it threatens its national security, and therefore Israel has the right to continue the war and eliminate it.

Israeli analyst Eddie Cohen agrees that raising the Israeli flag in Rafah was a "shock" to the Egyptian government. But he was not surprised by Egypt's request to join South Africa in the International Court of Justice case, accusing Cairo of entering the case in order to "evade responsibility" for helping Hamas, and saying that it wanted to maintain a "state of hostility" with Israel. But he does not believe that the peace treaty between the two countries is in danger, “and Egypt is keen to obtain the annual American aid money and other benefits it receives.” Fahmy also says that the issue of freezing the peace treaty is premature, and is linked to Israeli behavior in the coming period.

Axis of Resistance

The spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry described the overwhelming support from the UN General Assembly for Palestine’s full UN membership as a testimony of the US and the Israeli regime’s growing isolation in the international arena. In a post on his X account on Saturday, Nasser Kanaani said Washington is providing overt and covert support for the Zionist regime’s crimes against Gaza while an international consensus has formed in support of Palestine as the world has expressed its hatred for the Israeli genocidal crimes, forced displacement of Palestinians, occupation, and massacre of children.

“The Zionist regime is in the most isolated state of its fake history, and the US officials are alone, even among their own people, in the blind support for it (Israel),” he added. The Iranian spokesman noted that the international community’s decisive vote in favor of Palestine’s full UN membership clearly indicated the international isolation of the Zionist regime and the US.

On Friday, the UNGA overwhelmingly voted to support a Palestinian bid to become a full UN member by recognizing it as qualified to join and recommending the UN Security Council “reconsider the matter favorably”. Memberships can only be decided by the UN Security Council, and last month, the US vetoed a bid for full membership. The resolution does not give Palestinians full membership but recognizes them as qualified to join, and it gives Palestine more participation and some rights within the UNGA.

According to the report in the New York Times from American sources, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is not in Rafah, but remains in the tunnels in the Khan Yunis area. According to the report, this is information that both American intelligence and Israeli intelligence agree on. American and Israeli officials clarify that the Hamas tunnel system in Khan Yunis is the deepest in the Strip, and may reach a depth of 15 stories. According to the intelligence in the hands of the US and Israel, Sinwar is surrounded by hostages who are used as human shields. The US estimates that Israel has better intelligence about Sinwar's location, and states that they cooperate and share any intelligence they have.

The New York Times says , "Seven months later, Sinwar's survival has become a symbol of the failure of the Israeli war, which destroyed much of Gaza but left Hamas's senior leadership largely unharmed and failed to free most of the hostages."

“Even as Israeli officials sought to kill him, they were forced to negotiate with him, albeit indirectly, to free the remaining hostages,” according to the newspaper. Officials from Hamas, Israel and the United States say he is "a smart negotiator who succeeded in preventing an Israeli victory on the battlefield while including Israeli envoys at the negotiating table."

While the talks are being mediated in Egypt and Qatar, it is Sinwar, who is believed to be hiding in Gaza tunnels, whose approval Hamas negotiators are seeking before making any concessions, according to some officials. Sinwar played a pivotal role behind the scenes in Hamas's decision to adhere to a permanent ceasefire, according to American and Israeli officials.

Waiting for his approvals often slowed negotiations, according to officials and analysts. After the Israeli strikes destroyed a large part of the communications infrastructure in Gaza, it sometimes took one day to deliver a message to Sinwar, and one day to receive a response, according to American and Hamas officials.

A few days ago, the American Wall Street Journal published a report indicating that the fate of the ceasefire talks now depends on two "hawks": the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the leader of the Hamas movement, Yahya Sinwar. The newspaper explained that the calculations of the two men do not leave much room for settlement, and constitute a challenge to the efforts of US President Joe Biden, and other mediators, to reach a ceasefire and liberate detainees in Gaza.

Arab negotiators, who deal with Sinwar, told the newspaper that he believes he can withstand, even if Israel launches an attack on the city of Rafah, south of the Gaza Strip, and believes that he has already won the war, whether he survived it or not, because of “shedding light on the suffering of the Palestinians and making the conflict in Introduction to global concerns. The mediators indicated that Sinwar's long-term goal is to lift the siege on the Gaza Strip, end Israeli military pressure on Hamas, and ensure the movement's survival.

The New York Times notes in its new report that Hamas officials insist that Sinwar does not have the final say in the movement’s decisions. But although he does not technically have authority over the entire Hamas movement, his leadership role in Gaza and his strong personality give him great importance in managing Hamas' work, according to allies and enemies alike.

As the architect of the October attacks, Sinwar masterminded a strategy that he knew would provoke a fierce Israeli response. But in Hamas's calculations, "the killing of many Palestinian civilians was the necessary cost of overturning the status quo with Israel."

US and Israeli intelligence agencies spent several months assessing Sinwar's motives, according to people familiar with the intelligence. Analysts in both the United States and Israel believe that his main motivation is the desire to take revenge on Israel and weaken it, while for him it seems that the well-being of the Palestinian people or the establishment of a Palestinian state is secondary. It also appears that Sinwar is using his deep knowledge of Israel, after spending years in its prisons, to sow divisions in Israeli society and increase pressure on Netanyahu, according to Israeli and American officials. They also believe that he timed the release of video clips of some Israeli hostages in order to incite public anger towards Netanyahu, during the crucial stages of the ceasefire talks.

The newspaper says that if some view Netanyahu as deliberately prolonging the war for personal gain, then his arch enemy, Sinwar, is doing the same thing. Israeli and American intelligence officers say that Sinwar's strategy is to keep the war going as long as it will tear apart Israel's international reputation and harm its relationship with its main ally, the United States. The US President has already directed his strongest criticism of Israeli policy since the start of the war, after he said that he would stop some US arms shipments if the Israeli army launched a large-scale operation in Rafah.

American officials say Sinwar showed disdain for his colleagues outside Gaza, who were not informed of the exact plans for the Hamas attack on October 7. A senior Western official familiar with the ceasefire negotiations believes that Sinwar makes his decisions in coordination with his brother Muhammad, a senior Hamas military commander, and that throughout the war he sometimes disagreed with Hamas leaders outside Gaza. The official said that while the foreign leadership was sometimes more willing to reach a settlement, Sinwar was less willing to make concessions to Israeli negotiators, in part because he knew he would likely be killed, whether the war ended or not. The official said that even if negotiators reach a ceasefire agreement, Israel will likely pursue Sinwar for the rest of his life.

For their part, Hamas officials were keen to show unity, downplayed the importance of Sinwar's personal role in decision-making, and stressed that the elected Hamas leadership collectively determines the movement's course. Some say that if Sinwar played a major role during this war, it is mostly due to his position. As the leader of Hamas in Gaza, he has a greater say, although not the final decision, according to Musa Abu Marzouk, a Hamas leader residing in Qatar.

Abu Marzouk, the first leader of Hamas’s political bureau in the 1990s, said: “Sinwar’s opinion is very important because he is on the ground and leading the movement from within,” but Haniyeh has the “final word” on major decisions, and all Hamas political leaders have “one opinion.”

It is worth noting that the Times of Israel newspaper said, a few days ago, that recent intelligence assessments revealed that Sinwar is not hiding in Rafah, where the Israeli army intends to carry out a large ground operation. It quoted officials familiar with the matter as saying that recent intelligence assessments indicated that Al-Sinwar was present in underground tunnels in the Khan Yunis area, about 5 miles north of Rafah, and a third official confirmed that Al-Sinwar was still in Gaza.

Allied for Democracy

IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevy acknowledged responsibility for the army's failure to defend Israeli citizens on October 7. At a ceremony marking Remembrance Day, which Israel is currently observing, Halevy said: “As commander of the Israel Defense Forces during the war, I bear responsibility that the IDF failed in its mission to protect the citizens of the State of Israel on October 7. I feel its weight on my shoulders every day, And in my heart, I completely understand its meaning.”

The Chief of Staff added in his statements, which were reported by The Times of Israel : “I am the commander who sent your sons and daughters to the battle from which they did not return, and to the sites from which they were kidnapped... I carry with me every day the memory of the martyrs, and I am responsible for answering the difficult questions that keep you awake.” . The Israeli army chief of staff pledged not to abandon the kidnapped people, and to "return them to their homes soon."

A total of 1,504 soldiers and civilians have been killed in combat or due to hostilities since the last Memorial Day in Israel, according to figures published by the authorities last Thursday, which is the bloodiest year for the country's security forces and civilians in five decades, according to The Times of Israel .

It seems that the US is taking every step to pressure Israel to avoid a large-scale operation in Rafah. In the shadow of the storm of stopping the arms shipments, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken was interviewed today (Sunday) by the NBC network and emphasized that without a reasonable and appropriate plan, the US will not be able to support in a military operation in Rafah. "We share Israel's desire to oust Hamas from its rule in Gaza, but there is a better way to do that than entering Rafah," he claimed. According to him, the US believes that entering Rafah will not solve the problem, but will only result in harm to civilians, while the Hamas battalions will retreat north again. "We saw what happened in the areas that Israel 'cleaned' in the north of the Gaza Strip," he said. Entering Rafah will not solve the problem, and it will not ensure that Hamas will not be able to control Gaza again."

Despite the delay in the arms shipments, Blinken refused to set a real 'red line' for Israel, and at the same time emphasized that the US is conducting "active talks with Israel on the supply of heavy weapons in the shadow of the concern about the effect of the weapons on a dense environment like Rafah".

Blinken also referred to the report published by the State Department to Congress, according to which it is "reasonable to estimate" that Israel used weapons in a manner that violated international law in Gaza. However, the report shows that Israel did not violate the terms of the arms agreements with the US. Blinken stood by Israel and clarified that the report only proves that "it is an incredibly complex military environment. It (Israel) has an enemy that deliberately drowns itself in civilians."

Operation Iron Swords - By the Numbers

• 1,900,000 IDPs in Gaza
• 78,641 Gazans injured, 28% adult male
• 70,000 tons of explosives dropped on Gaza
• 70,000 Gaza housing units completely destroyed
• 70,000 Israeli IDPs from Lebanon border
• 45,000 bombs dropped in Gaza
• 45,000 Gazans killed, including buried under rubble
• 34,971 Gazans martyred
• 33,000 Gaza targets attacked
• 20,528 Palestinians in Israeli prisons [Haaretz, 20 Mar 2024]
• 15,140 Israelis injured [i24 TV]
• 15,000 rockets launched from Gaza
• 14,520 Gazan children martyred
• 13,000 HAMAS combatants killed [N12]
• 13,000 HAMAS combatants killed [IDF]
• 11,000 arrested by Israelis in the West Bank in 2023
• 10,000 Gazans missing under the rubble
• 9,920 Gazan women martyred
• 9,400 Palestinians in Israeli prisons
• 9,000 IDF needing psychological assistance
• 8,665 arrested by Israelis in the West Bank since Oct.7th
• 7,209 IDF injured admitted to rehabilitation [IDF]
• 6,800 IDF officers and soldiers injured [Channel 12]
• 6,000 HAMAS combatants killed [HAMAS]
• 5,500 IDF wounded [reports]
• 4,800 West Bank Palestinians wounded
• 4,700 sites targetted in Lebanon
• 3,850 wanted persons arrested throughout Judea and Samaria
• 3,600 administrative detainees
• 3,188 IDF wounded [IDF]
• 2,100 Gazan women are missing
• 1,609 terrorists killed on the first day
• 1,650 wanted persons arrested throughout Judea and Samaria affiliated with Hamas
• 1,160 Israelis killed on the first day
• 615 Israeli officers and soldiers killed since the start of the war
• 468 West Bank Palestinians martyred
• 364 people [including fighters] killed in Lebanon
• 267 Israeli officers and soldiers killed in Gaza
• 240 Hezbollah fighters killed in Lebanon
• 126 people recovered, including 91 Israelis, 11 bodies, and 24 foreign workers
• 116 living hostages in Palestinian custody
• 70 civilians killed in Lebanon
• 29 IDF deaths were caused by "friendly fire"
• 15 Israelis killed in the West Bank and Israel

Not every number is reported every day, so sudden jumps generally reflect reporting artifacts rather than actual upticks. Many of these numbers fluctate, up and down, with no apparent explanation. This list records the highest number reliably reported for each matter, under the theory that reality with catch up with reports, as is relentlessly the case.

Some reports claimed that the UN cut in half its earlier estimates of women and children killed in Gaza. Initially, they reported 9,500 women and 14,500 children killed, but later revised it to 4,959 women and 7,797 children on 08 May 2024. The UN acknowledged its inability to independently verify casualty figures. The seeming discrepancy is that HAMAS had about 10K KIA bodies on hand for which they do not have positive ID. It is possible to report the gender and approximate age [ie, juvenile] without knowing the name of the deceased.