Third Lebanon War

Eylon Levy @EylonALevy npted "In the Second Lebanon War, Hezbollah fired around 4,000 rockets at Israel. Since October 8, 2023, in a conflict that is not yet defined as the Third Lebanon War, Hezbollah has fired 6,500 rockets. Hezbollah has already declared war on Israel."

IDF carried out a targeted strike in Beirut 30 July 2024 on the commander responsible for the murder of the children in Majdal Shams and the killing of numerous additional Israeli civilians. Iranian Tasnim News Agency said, "The Zionist attack on the Beirut suburb failed and did not lead to the martyrdom of Fouad Shukr." The target was Fuad Shukr, also known as Fu'ad Chakar, also known as Al-Hajj Mohsin Chakar, also known as Fouad Ali Chakar, a senior advisor on military affairs to Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah and in charge of all Hezbollah's military operations. Shukr played a central role in the planning and execution of the October 23, 1983 U.S. Marine Corps Barracks Bombing in Beirut, Lebanon, which killed 241 U.S. service personnel.

Shukr was named by the IDF several years ago as a commander of Hezbollah's precision missile project. The strike was carried out in the Dahiya district, where the headquarters of Hezbollah is located. Christiaan Triebert @trbrtc reported Geolocation of damage seen in this photo, from the suspected Israeli attack in Beirut, Lebanon: 33.853260, 35.506546, next to the Bahman Hospital and the Al Hasanain Mosque. The IDF said they considered their reprisal for the Majdal Shams attack to be finished. So their hope is that Hezbollah won't seriously respond. Israeli Channel 13 reported, according to a senior Israeli official: If Hezbollah does not respond to the attack, we will not be drawn into war.

Al Jazeera's correspondent said that an Israeli drone strike targeted the Haret Hreik area in the southern suburbs of Beirut , leaving 6 people injured, one of them critically, and causing extensive material damage to buildings and cars. The correspondent added that several missiles fell on the targeted building, stressing that the Lebanese security forces imposed a security cordon around the site of the Israeli raid. According to the Lebanese News Agency, the Israeli raid targeted the Al-Rabi’ building in the vicinity of Hezbollah’s Shura Council in the southern suburb with 3 missiles, which led to its collapse.

The body of senior Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr was recovered from the rubble of a building in southern Beirut that was targeted in an Israeli strike. The recovery came almost 24 hours after Israel confirmed that it had targeted Shukr in an airstrike on the Lebanese capital.

Channel 13 reported that Israeli officials expected a large number of missiles to be launched from Lebanese territory, following the raid that targeted the southern suburbs of the capital, Beirut. Media outlets also reported that the Israeli city of Haifa is witnessing a state of great panic and fear of a possible strike launched by the Lebanese Hezbollah in response to the bombing of the southern suburb. Maariv newspaper reported, quoting Israeli officials, that "the ball is now in Hezbollah's court and they are not interested in another security escalation, but they (the Israelis) are prepared for any developments."

Netanyahu received approval from the United States for an operation against Hezbollah, according to a report 27 July 2024 by Israeli Channel 14. The White House warned the Israeli defense minister that a strike on Beirut would get the situation out of control. According to some Israeli media, at least two options were considered: either a series of intensive strikes on Hezbollah positions, or a ground operation accompanied by an invasion of the Israel Defense Forces into southern Lebanon. Netanyahu's office said the response would be "limited but painful". Some observers speculated that Israeli authorities will limit themselves to massive strikes on Lebanon. It wouldn't really be expensive compared to a ground operation, and it would also allow for some face saving to ordinary citizens who demand retaliation.

The deputy speaker of the Lebanese parliament said: "If there are civilian casualties or if Beirut and its suburbs are targeted, we will not consider it an appropriate and limited response." Israel struck Hezbollah targets in Lebanon in the immediate aftermath of a rocket strike from Lebanon that killed 12 people at a football field in the Golan Heights. The strikes aimed at what the Israeli military said were Hezbollah weapons caches and infrastructure. But the strikes seemed to fall short of an overwhelming response threatened after the Hizballah attack that killed Israeli teenagers and young children.

The Israeli security cabinet met on Sunday 28 July 2024 after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu landed in Israel having cut his U.S. visit by a few hours. After the meeting of Israel’s security cabinet ended, Netanyahu’s office said the cabinet “authorised the Prime Minister and the Defense Minister to decide on the manner and timing of the response”. From now on, plans regarding the "Lebanon issue" will not have to be submitted to the cabinet for discussion, and all decisions will be made directly by Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant. Netanyahu was criticized for initially refusing to leave the USA ahead of the scheduled time, a claim he denied. The Israeli military described the incident as "the deadliest attack on Israeli civilians" since the Hamas attack on October 7 that sparked the war in Gaza and sparked an ongoing exchange of shelling across the Lebanese border. twelve people, including children aged between 10 and 20, were killed and more than 40 others were wounded in a missile attack on the Golan Heightsy, with Israel accusing Hezbollah of being responsible for the strike.

The rocket fell on the town of Majdal Shams, a Druze-majority town, and was part of a barrage of about 40 rockets fired from Lebanon into Israel, the Israeli military said. The Israeli military said an "Iranian-made" missile was used in the attack on a football stadium in the town of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights. He added, "The forensic findings at the site indicate that this missile (Falaq-1) is used only by the terrorist group Hezbollah, which carried out this attack."

"Our review of various aspects and available evidence strongly indicates to us at @FakeReporter with almost certainty that the explosion in the soccer field of Majdal Shams, resulting in the deaths of 12 children, was caused by a Faraq-1 rocket fired by Hezbollah from southern Lebanon, and not a Tamir interceptor by the Iron Dome." "Hezbollah will not escape punishment for this incident, and will pay a heavy price for its actions," he added. Netanyahu vowed that "Israel will not let this murderous attack go unanswered and Hezbollah will pay a heavy price for it, a price it has not paid before," according to a statement from his office. “Israel will not remain silent about the horrific attack,” he added. “I was shocked when I saw the horrific images that followed the deadly Hezbollah attack on Majdal Shams. Among these images were dead people, young children playing soccer, and other dead people. Our hearts are broken by these scenes. We embrace the families, we embrace the entire Druze community in their difficult moments, which are also our difficult moments.”

Defense Minister Yoav Galant met with the chiefs of staff and the Mossad. He vowed to strike the party "wherever we need to strike it." Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz told Channel 12 that the party "crossed all red lines," while National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, via the Hebrew website Walla, asked Netanyahu to "wage war on Hezbollah immediately." Gallant said an Israeli response would be forceful. "Hezbollah will be made to pay for the massacre of children," Gallant said on a visit to Majdal Shams ahead of funeral services for 11 of the children who were murdered in the attack.

Israeli army's chief of staff, Herzi Halevi, announced that the army had raised its readiness to the "next stage" of fighting in the north of the country, pledging to strike the Lebanese Hezbollah group "harshly." Halevi said during an inspection tour in Majdal Shams "We have raised our readiness for the next stage of fighting in the north. We will strike Hezbollah hard and push it back, and we will achieve security and return the residents of the north to their homes".

Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben Gvir, commented while calling for war. "Since October 8, I have said that we are in a state of war in the north and that the enemy must be defeated. The forums of the decision-makers avoided for 10 months from acknowledging that we are in a campaign against Hezbollah. Today, no one, in any forum, including the Minister of Defense who strives only for containment against Hezbollah, can avoid From the bloody reality - we are at war. I call on the Prime Minister to immediately convene the cabinet, also by encrypted phone, to make the decision that I have been demanding for a long time - war in the north, now."

"For the death of small children, Nasrallah should pay with his head," Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich also responded. "Lebanon as a whole must pay the price. My position regarding the necessary steps is known. The prime minister must return immediately. The time for action has come." The chairman of the Israel Beitenu party, Avigdor Lieberman, also commented on the disaster. "The person responsible for the murder of many children and boys in Majdal Shams is Nasrallah, and it is time for him to pay the price,"

Economy Minister Nir Barkat: Israel needs to completely change the equation in the north. The state of Lebanon and Hezbollah must pay a heavy price for the heavy disaster in Majdal Shams and for the terrorism they operate on the northern front. The cabinet must change its approach and move from containment to attack. The blood of the northerners is not wasted. I share in the grief of the families in Majdal Shams. This is another war crime that joins a series of war crimes since October 7."

Interior Minister Moshe Arbel also commented on Israel's response to the incident. "The response to the criminal and murderous shooting at Majdal Shams must not be less than the response to the shooting at Tel Aviv, in a country with a single sovereign law To Majdal Shams and Tel Aviv".

Minister of Culture and Sports Miki Zohar (Likud) called for a campaign against Hezbollah. "Children who just wanted to play football, boys who just wanted to take advantage of the Shabbat holiday and enjoy sports near home, were brutally murdered by the damned enemy. I repeat: we must stop procrastinating and deal a fatal blow to Hezbollah. The more we postpone the campaign, the more painful the price we will pay. The red line has long been crossed, time for action."

State President Herzog also commented on the heavy disaster, while criticizing the world's attitude towards Israel and the terrorist attacks it suffers. "Hezbollah, which is armed and financed by Iran, does not distinguish between a child and an adult, between a Jew and a Muslim or a Druze or a Christian. Hezbollah terrorists brutally attacked and murdered children today whose only sin was going out to play football. And don't return."

Hezbollah was on high alert in expectation for an Israeli retaliation after the deadly attack on Majdal Shams, killing 12 children, The terrorist organization evacuated central facilities in eastern Lebanon and the south in preparation for the possibility of "Israeli escalation". The Israeli occupation entity will come to an end if it opts for a large-scale war against Lebanon, underlined Mohammad Raad, the head of the Loyalty to the Resistance bloc in the Lebanese parliament.

Arab souerces claim an Israeli Iron Dome interceptor missile struck a playground in the town. Hezbollah denied that it targeted Majdal Shams, a Druze town where many residents have rejected Israeli nationality since the Israeli occupation of the Golan Heights in 1967. In a statement, the Lebanese Resistance group said it "categorically denies the allegations reported by certain enemy media and various media platforms concerning the targeting of Majdal Shams." It affirmed "The Islamic Resistance has no connection to this incident". Axios cited an American official as saying Hezbollah officials told the UN that the Golan Heights incident was the result of an Israeli interceptor missile hitting the playground in Majdal Shams.

The Syrian Foreign Ministry stated that the Israeli occupation entity committed a "heinous crime" in Majdal Shams and then blamed the Lebanese Resistance "as part of attempts to escalate the situation in the region." The statement said Damascus condemns the ongoing massacres committed daily by the Israeli occupation and holds it responsible for the dangerous escalation of the situation throughout the region.

Iran strongly warned against any "new Zionist adventure" against Lebanon, using the recent incident in the town of Majdal Shams in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights as a pretext. The spokesperson of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Nasser Kanaani, underlined that any "reckless attack" by the Israeli occupation could expand the scope of the war and destabilize the security of the region. He stressed that "Israel" is primarily responsible for the unexpected repercussions of such "foolish behavior".

Lebanon's caretaker Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib said that Hezbollah is ready to withdraw beyond the Litani if Israel stops its violations. The caretaker Foreign Minister explained that the damage would affect Israel and the region if war broke out, and it is not in the interest of Tel Aviv and Lebanon for a large-scale war to break out between the two parties,

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he did not want to see an escalation of conflict on Israel's northern border. "I emphasize (Israel's) right to defend its citizens and our determination to make sure that they're able to do that," Blinken said during a news conference in Tokyo. "But we also don't want to see the conflict escalate. We don't want to see it spread." The American website " Axios " quoted American officials as saying that the administration of President Joe Biden is "deeply concerned" that the attack could lead to a "comprehensive war" between Israel and Hezbollah. "What happened today may be the trigger we've been worried about and trying to avoid for 10 months," a US official told the site.

Foreign Minister Israel Katz told Israel's Channel 12 news: "We are facing an all-out war against Hezbollah, the Houthis and Iran, "Qassem Soleimani managed to create a belt of fire around us and build several fronts against Israel. We have all the capabilities. But yes, I emphasize and say that there will be prices at the front, and there will also be prices at the rear.... Nasrallah and Hezbollah will be destroyed and Lebanon will be severely damaged, we will restore peace and the residents to the north."

OSINTdefender reported that Hezbollah had reportedly told both U.S. President Joe Biden’s Advisor on Lebanon and Israel, Amos Hochstein as well as Senior Officers with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) that any kind of Major Israeli Retaliatory Operation, will result in a Massive Response. on 'Meet the Press', Foreign Minister Israel Katz said that Israel is approaching an all-out war against Hezbollah: " We will respond in a disproportionate way, and we will not go into detail".-

Israeli Minister of Security Itamar Ben-Gvir on the bombing in Majdal Shams: “Since October 8th I have been saying that we are at war in the north and the enemy must be defeated, and groups of decision makers have for 10 months avoided acknowledging that we are fighting Hezbollah. Today, no one, no one, including the Secretary of Defense, who sought only to contain Hezbollah, can escape the bloody reality that we are at war. I call on the Prime Minister to immediately convene the Cabinet of Ministers, also via an encrypted communication channel, to make a decision that I have been demanding for a long time - war in the north now!”

The Institute for "National Security Studies", with close links to the security establishment, had reported the risk is very significant. A report from the think tank issued on 07 July 2024 was titled "How Would a Full-Scale War with Hezbollah Affect the Resilience of Israel’s Civilian Front?" It turns out to be very depressing for supporters of Zionism. In summary, it anticipates “severe damages expected in such a war to Israel’s civilian home front and its functional continuity, and consequently to the resilience of Israeli society and its ability to recover from the war.“

The airspace over Lebanon was empty. Beirut International Airport stopped receiving and sending planes in anticipation of Israeli strikes. GPS and Internet reception failures were reported in Lebanon. Phone calls had been interrupted. Israel appeared to have activated its electronic warfare systems.

An Israeli air strike hit a school housing a field hospital in central Gaza on Saturday, killing at least 30 people and wounding more than 100, said the health ministry in the Hamas-run Palestinian territory. The Israeli military said its strike targeted Hamas "terrorists" operating from the school.

Background - Scenarios

According to Germany's Bild, "Israel" planned to begin an offensive operation in Lebanon in the second half of July. Israel claims it will begin an offensive operation on Lebanon in the second half of July unless Hezbollah ceases its fire, the German Bild reported on 01 July 2024, citing diplomatic sources. Lebanese Islamic Resistance group Hezbollah has repeatedly said it will not halt its attacks unless Israel ends its ongoing genocide in Gaza. Israeli military action on Lebanon could drag in regional and possibly international actors.

Among the most pressing concerns is Hezbollah's refusal to disarm, as called for in the 1989 Taif Accord that ended the Lebanese civil war and more recently in U.N. Security Council Resolutions 1559 and, again, 1701. The substantial demilitarization, if not the complete disarmament, of Hezbollah is required to transform Lebanon from a perpetually war-torn society and geopolitical pawn into a durable 21st century state. As long as Hezbollah is armed, the group can dominate Lebanon through threat of force.

"Diplomacy is by far the best way to prevent more escalation" between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said. "Hezbollah's provocations threaten to drag the Israeli and Lebanese people into a war that they do not want. Such a war would be a catastrophe for Lebanon and it would be devastating for innocent Israeli and Lebanese civilians," US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said.

Shelling on Israel's northern border has led to the evacuation of tens of thousands of people from areas on both sides of the frontier. Amos J. Hochstein, who was born in Israel to Jewish parents serving in the country’s military, was the get-go between Israel and the US, particularly in regard to the energy sector. Hochstein was tasked with mediating Lebanon-Israel maritime border negotiations.

The head of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Aerospace Force, Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh issued a warning to Israel amid fears of an Israel-Hezbollah war. The senior Iranian military commander reportedly said Iran is waiting for a chance to launch another direct attack on Israel as a follow-up to a barrage of hundreds of missiles and drones it fired in April. Meanwhile, a former Iranian official warned that Israel's potential Lebanon offensive may trigger a regional war involving all Arab nations.

Rami Khouri, a political analyst from the American University of Beirut, said 04 July 2024 while Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to thump the drums of war with Hezbollah, its military is unprepared for a second front. “Netanyahu, especially, keeps saying we are going to attack Lebanon. We are going to destroy Hezbollah. But they don’t have the capacity to do that while they are still fighting a war in Gaza,” Khouri told Al Jazeera. Netanyahu said on 30 June 2024 that Israel was winding down operations in Rafah and will redirect to Lebanon.

If negotiations could result in assurances to Israel that Hezbollah’s and its allies would not be present in a 6-10km [4-6 mile] radius from the border, and that they have no intention of using Hezbollah’s elite Radwan forces to attack Israel, this may constitute a face-saving exit strategy.

Israeli Strike North

In 2006 Israel's then army chief General Dan Halutz boasted that the military would target civilian infrastructure in Lebanon with the aim to "turn back the clock in Lebanon by 20 years." In 2024, analysts maintained that there is a possibility of a limited ground invasion or – the more likely scenario – an expanded aerial war in which Israel targets areas that are Hezbollah strongholds, as well as Lebanese infrastructure. By June 2024 there did not apper to be a significant Israeli troop build-up on the border with Lebanon.

Israeli leaders have warned Hezbollah against launching a full-scale attack on Israel, saying it could suffer a similar fate to besieged Gaza. Israel will likely employ what it calls the “Dahiya Doctrine” – named after a civilian neighbourhood and a Hezbollah stronghold in south Beirut – which dictates the use of disproportionate force that targets civilian and military infrastructure. A war against Hezbollah could lead to civil strife in Lebanon, which has been passing through economic and political crisis. The migration of mostly Shia Lebanese citizens to majority Christian and Sunni cities in the north may trigger sectarian tensions. Critics and opponents of Hezbollah may also explicitly blame the group – and its perceived supporters – for dragging the already beleaguered country into war.

A report published 03 July 2024 in The Economist magazine highlights the major changes since the July 2006 war on Lebanon. Hezbollah is much better prepared for an Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon compared to Ukraine's previous preparations against Russia in 2022, the British weekly magazine The Economist reported, citing an Israeli officer.

The officer pointed out that the locations that the Israeli military believed to be "well camouflaged" were repeatedly discovered and struck by Hezbollah, adding that the only reason the Israeli army has not suffered huge casualties in the North is that its forces "remain out of sight." Tamir Hayman, former Israeli military intelligence chief, considered that if "Israel" wants to "create a change," it must "destroy all of Hezbollah's system." "And right now I think it cannot be achieved," he indicated.

A former senior Mossad official stressed that the Israeli military is fatigued from Gaza operations and requires at least six months to prepare for another war. According to the report, there have been four major changes since the July 2006 war on Lebanon.

The first is that the Lebanese Resistance group has acquired a wide range of "Iranian-designed kamikaze drones." It noted that, despite many of the Israeli tanks and armored vehicles being equipped with active protection systems that can counter anti-tank missiles, these drones "target weaker points on the top of vehicles."

The second change is that Hezbollah has developed its ground forces, with its elite Radwan force, "intended to strike as far as 20km into Israel." Third comes the combat experience that Hezbollah fighters gained fighting alongside Russian air forces in Syria. Additionally, the report highlighted that Hezbollah's firepower has "become more accurate," as the Lebanese group routinely uses drones to identify direct rocket targets and sends reconnaissance drones to identify targets for highly accurate attacks, according to the Israeli officer. Hezbollah's air defenses have also improved, which might limit the Israeli military's freedom of maneuver, having seven of its large drones shot down by the Lebanese group since the beginning of the fighting.

In the same context, the report pointed to the "matter of scale," where the officer said that Israeli generals "talk optimistically" of a limited ground maneuver to capture a "security zone" to prevent Hezbollah from targeting Israeli settlements along the border with Lebanon. He recalled that the Israeli military needed seven divisions to invade Lebanon in 1982 and used four divisions in the 2006 war. However, today, the Israeli military is preoccupied with the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, and at least one of its units dispatched to training bases in the North for drills, in settings simulating Lebanon, has already been sent back to fight in Gaza. "I don’t see where they’re going to bring enough soldiers from," one Israeli reservist who took part in the exercises was quoted as saying.

Touching on the effects of a potential war, The Economist cited an unpublished report prepared by more than 100 experts and Israeli former officials convened by Reichman University and finalized in October. The report warns that Hezbollah might launch 2,500 to 3,000 rockets daily, which is 25 times the rate of rocket fire in 2006, for three consecutive weeks, making it the largest continuous rocket barrage in history. It pointed out that even if US destroyers offshore could destroy larger rockets, Israeli defensive systems would be overwhelmed in many areas, resulting in heavy casualties estimated at tens of thousands.

Brigadier General (Res.) Dr. Meir Finkel, Head of Research at the Dado Center wrote in 2022 "The IDF can and should win such a war, and it will do so successfully provided there is an understanding of what will be considered a victory - in terms of harming the enemy, the duration of the war, and the expected cost of it....

After the Second Lebanon War, a feeling of "sourness" developed, which was the result of the gap between expectations and actual performance. This feeling also accompanied some of the operations in Gaza in the last two decades. This feeling is directly related to the limited nature of these conflicts, which are not fundamentally intended to overwhelm the enemy, and paradoxically precisely in these conflicts the public expects a high achievement and a low price....

Finkel focused on "a situation where, due to an escalation on the northern border, which can happen for a variety of reasons, Israel will decide that it is embarking on a large-scale war or an all-out war in Lebanon aimed at removing the Hezbollah threat for many years.... Israel's goals will be to remove the threat of Hezbollah for many years (a decade or more). ... before the Second Lebanon War ... a key element in the failure of preparations for war was the definition of Hezbollah as a terrorist organization that tries to kidnap soldiers and carry out terrorist attacks abroad, and that the worst-case scenario given such an event would be an escalation into a day of battle. Hezbollah was not associated in the IDF before the war with the word war, and therefore not with the scenario of war, and therefore no preparations for war were made against it.... in a future war against Hezbollah there will be cases in which, despite an overall Israeli superiority, there will be situations in which Hezbollah's force will be able to stop the advance of the IDF in certain areas for many hours. The Israeli force will be forced to retreat, regroup and attack again. When this happens, we should not be surprised."

"I would argue that the desired achievement is about 3,000 enemy dead (from counter-air fire and land battles), and about 12,000 wounded (this is the basic ratio between the two types of casualties). If this is the case, then it will be about half of the enemy's total strength, whose size was estimated in 2016 at about 20 thousand fighters (Harel and Cohen, 2016), and for the purpose of the article I will refer to its current size as an army numbering about 30 thousand fighters."

Colonel (Ret.) Yaakov Amidror, wrote that the IDF's first achievement should be: "Destroy most of Hezbollah's military capability, so that the threat The major response to Israel's action to curb the organization's re-strengthening process will largely disappear, not because Hezbollah will deter or change its mind, but because the ability to carry out the threat will cease to exist" (Amidror, 2021, p. 34).

The "War Month" exercise held in 2022 practiced an escalation leading to an all-out war. It may be possible to rely on its length as a standard for the correct length of such a war. General (Res.) Amidror described the war in Lebanon in two phases. The first - a tree fighting phase that will last for about two to three weeks, to occupy a large area and take control of it, while the air force is engaged in a wide-ranging activity to destroy targets all over Lebanon. The second - a prolonged phase that may last for several months, in which the regular army forces will systematically destroy infrastructure and military personnel of the organization that were not destroyed in the first phase. During the war month exercise in the spring of 2022, when the IDF announced that on the ninth day of the war (in the exercise) the damage suffered by the home front reached: "80 sites of destruction [damaged high-rise buildings with people trapped under the rubble], 300 dead on the front and in the home. Thousands on the Lebanese side" (Zitoun, 2022).

Finkel concluded "The claim that "it is impossible to defeat a terrorist organization" is true in its conceptual-philosophical aspect, but it is completely wrong in the practical aspect. Palestinian terrorism was defeated after a series of operations that began with the "Protective Wall", although the ideas of Palestinian nationalism were not abandoned."

Israeli military leaders say that the war on Lebanon will be a gradual process and will not reach its peak all at once, while the American intelligence community warned that Israel will not be able to phase out the war if it breaks out, and will not be able to control the gradualness, but rather it will escalate very quickly.

Hizballah Strike South

Hezbollah was prepared for different scenarios as the low-level conflict between it and Israel threatened to spin out into something larger. Iran brought together a loose collection of players to make up its ‘resistance axis’ which is now a cohesive machine. Hezbollah has talked about this idea – calling it the unification of fronts – which is like Article 5 of NATO: an attack on one is an attack on all. This was not the case in the past. Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah said that his group is ready for “unrestricted warfare” with Israel amid an exchange of cross-border fire between the two sides. “Israel and its army and settlers are the ones who fear war, not Lebanon,” Nasrallah said.

Amal Saad, the author of two books on Hezbollah, said “The war will be ongoing. Nasrallah has said they will keep fighting until Hamas is victorious and if Hamas is weakened and undermined then Hezbollah won’t sit on [its] hands... There’s a strategic objective here … Hezbollah will not leave Hamas on its own.”

“Hezbollah most probably have a strategy ready in case of a limited, protracted war in south Lebanon and they have probably prepared a strategy in case there is a wider full-scale war,” Karim Emile Bitar, professor of international relations at University Saint Joseph in Beirut, said. A limited war would be what Salamey called a “low-intensity asymmetric warfare of attrition” that bleeds “the enemy through low-cost, efficient, and effective skirmishes” – basically a continuation of the current conflict. Hezbollah likely does not want ground invasion of south Lebanon. “Hezbollah, as well as the Iranian regime, realises [an escalation] would be extremely risky and devastating for Lebanon,” he said.

On the ground, Hezbollah trains Special Forces to cross the border into Israel and invade Israeli towns. In this scenario, which Hezbollah has referred to as "Occupation of the Galilee", small groups of well-trained Special Forces from the "Radwan Force" will infiltrate towns, carry out widespread massacres on the residents, and take others captive as leverage for bargaining. The "Radwan Force" is currently operating in Syria and gaining experience in urban ground raids and taking control of towns.

"Part of our plan in the next war is to enter into Galilee, a part of our plan we are capable of, God willing. The important thing is that we have this capability and we have had it for years," said Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in an interview. Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement has warned that it is fully ready to fight against Israel after its fighters exchanged fire for days with Israeli soldiers on their border. Both parties have traded shelling and rocket fire across their borders since the Palestinian armed faction Hamas attacked Israel on October 7. Hezbollah may open a new front against Israel at the behest of its leaders and their Iranian backers. That scenario may relieve pressure on Hamas and beleaguered civilians in Gaza, but it would be devastating for Lebanon and costly for Israel.

Israel discovered Hezbollah "attack tunnels" and the UN Middle East envoy confirmed the existence of two of them, which he said constituted a breach of the 2006 truce existing between Israel and Lebanon. Nasrallah indicated the tunnels had been dug long ago and it was "a surprise" that Israel took so long to locate them. "One of the tunnels discovered goes back 13 years," he said, without discussing how old any other tunnels were.

Since the Second Lebanon War, Hezbollah, with the help of Iran, has worked ceaselessly to build its strength and improve its ability to harm Israel, including the Israeli home front. Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has expressed his destructive intentions in a future war with Israel. Marking the annual "Al-Quds Day," he threatened the "Israeli enemy" that conflict between the two foes would "open the way for hundreds, even thousands of fighters from all over the Arab and Islamic world to participate." Thus, he himself views the conflict as a regional one, striving for the entire Arab world to unite against Israel.

Hezbollah has skilled forces that have undergone systematic training and some of them have operational experience from fighting in Syria, they are prepared in defense formations that include obstacles, fortified positions, advanced anti-tank weapons and multi-track steep weapons and are equipped with collection means and advanced night vision means.

Hezbollah's main effort will be placed on firing hundreds of rockets and missiles at Israel per day. The majority of this barrage will be of high statistical accuracy, with some amount of highly long range missiles capable of reaching nearly the entire State of Israel. According to an IDF Home Front Command report that describes the threat Hezbollah will pose to the Israeli home front in a future war, roughly 1,000-1,500 rockets and missiles will be launched into Israel, thousands of homes will be hit and hundreds of Israeli civilians will be injured or killed. Hundreds of thousands are expected to be evacuated from their homes. This sums up the magnitude of the threat, even despite Israel's air defense systems, which are among the best in the world.

"The reference scenario in the next war - 2,000 missiles per day" (Channel 7, 2022). A year later, after the "Guardian of the Walls" operation, Gordin updated his estimates and stated that in relation to the operation: "In the campaign against Hezbollah, the rate of fire will be 10 times higher , 4,000 rockets per day will be launched towards the home front..

Finkel wrote "The number of non-involved casualties on the Lebanese side is not usually included in the achievement-time-cost triangle, but it is a major factor that keeps statesmen and military personnel from sleeping, and is also an important factor that must be quantified, in this case for the purpose of coordinating expectations with the international community. The heart of the matter is that great international pressure due to a large number of uninvolved casualties may prevent the IDF from continuing to fight and achieving a decisive victory.... If we take the yardstick developed in the operations in Gaza, then if the IDF kills 3,000 Hezbollah fighters ... will probably kill between 1000 and 2000 uninvolved civilians.... the IDF present to Israel and the world a "fingerprint" of about 5,000 non-involved civilians killed - if these remain in combat zones Despite the IDF's warning."

Hanin Ghaddar, Farzin Nadimi, and David Schenker wrote June 21, 2024 "If Hezbollah’s conflict with Israel widens, the group could use its large missile and drone arsenal to attack Cyprus, the allied military presence based there, and a wide array of shipping and energy assets in the East Mediterranean. When Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah gave a speech this week commemorating a senior commander killed by Israel, his remarks were noteworthy for both their exceptionally menacing tone and their focus on the East Mediterranean. The headline from the June 19 address was his threat to strike Cyprus if it allows Israel to use the island’s air bases or other military facilities during a future war in Lebanon—an understandable point of media focus given the republic’s status as a European Union member state." Hezbollah’s threat to Cyprus aims to enable the party to leave its mark in the Mediterranean Sea, as the Houthis are doing in the Red Sea, paralyze global trade, and raise the prices of energy and goods, in addition to the Iranians’ control of the Strait of Hormuz, this makes the region pause and look at Hezbollah differently. Iran may intervene in the war if it finds that Hezbollah will be exposed to an existential threat.