At the battle of Stirling Bridge, 11 September 1297, the movie Braveheart has William Wallace provoking the English to battle, saying "Here are Scotland's terms. Lower your flags, and march straight back to England, stopping at every home to beg forgiveness for 100 years of theft, rape, and murder. Do that and your men shall live. Do it not, and every one of you will die today. ... Before we let you leave, your commander must cross that field, present himself before this army, put his head between his legs, and kiss his own ass."

Putin's Nuclear Crisis - September 2024

Threats about the use of nuclear weapons from the Kremlin have been heard since the beginning of the full-scale war. This is cynically called “protection of Russian interests.”

Russia will change its nuclear doctrine based on its own analysis of the latest "conflicts and actions" of Western countries in connection with the so-called "special military operation" (as the Russian Federation calls the war against Ukraine). Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Serhiy Ryabkov stated this in a comment to the Russian news agency TASS 01 September 2024. At the same time, the Russian diplomat did not specify what exactly will change in the military doctrine regarding the use of nuclear weapons and when the corresponding changes will be made.

In February 2024 Vladimir Putin, once again told Western countries that they risk provoking a nuclear war if they send troops to Ukraine. At that time, the EU called threats and nuclear blackmail against the West part of Putin's "pre-election" campaign. At the end of May, the Russian Federation began nuclear exercises, which have been held in three stages so far. At the same time, the Belarusian military was also involved in them.

Ryabkov said that Moscow had decided to revise its nuclear doctrine to reach a new balance in line with the escalation course adopted by the West. “The work is at an advanced stage, and there is a clear intent to make corrections”, Ryabkov was cited as saying by TASS. Ryabkov pointed out that Russia's decision on the matter is “connected with the escalation course of our Western adversaries” in connection with their proxy war using Ukrainian forces against Russian troops.

He did not specify what the new changes in mind for Russia's new nuclear doctrine would include. Ryabkov's comments came after in the recent meeting of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO) members, they reaffirmed their commitment to stepping up their military aid to Ukraine. NATO Chief Jens Stoltenberg emphasized in an official statement from the meeting in Brussels on Wednesday, “We must continue to provide Ukraine with the equipment and munitions it needs to defend itself against Russia’s invasion. This is vital for Ukraine’s ability to stay in the fight.” In response to Kiev's insistence on using warplanes, weapons and ammunition provided to the former Soviet Republic by the West to strike targets deep inside Russia, several NATO member states agreed to lift the restrictions placed on Kiev in using the long-range military hardware supplied by Western allies, especially the missiles.

Russia, which sees the West's full out support for Kiev as a proxy war by the Western countries against the Russian nation, has repeatedly warned of Moscow’s intention to make changes and upgrade its nuclear deterrence forces to balance the new status quo. Ryabkov’s comments were the most categorical statement on Russia's plan to proceed with a new nuclear doctrine to date. Russia's message to the US-led NATO bloc has been clear till now: “Refrain from providing excessive military aid to Ukraine, lest you risk provoking a confrontation with Russia that could rapidly turn into a nuclear conflict.”

Russia and Belarus are to sign a treaty on security guarantees and nuclear weapons in December 2024, according to Belarusian Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov. "We plan to sign an interstate treaty with Russia on security guarantees for the two countries, which will lay down the principle of using nuclear weapons and conventional weapons, as well as other methods of protecting both countries that are part of the Union State," Ryzhenkov was quoted as saying by Kommersant on 02 September 2024.

Political Scientist Sergei Karaganov told Tatyana Antonova writing for Moscow Komsomolets September 2, 2024 “The current nuclear doctrine has long been outdated. It is a product of our state of mind of the 1980s. Not even being completely aware of this, by adopting it we cleared the way for NATO’s expansion and now for its direct aggression against us. By failing to amend our nuclear doctrine and carry out appropriate military-technical actions, we have exacerbated our strategic position dramatically, which could lead to our failure or necessity for massive use. Tactically, our military are winning on the battlefield, but we have opened the way to a grueling, long and protracted war to be won by the one who is stronger economically....

“Our indecision is becoming dangerous and bordering on recklessness, to say the least. It is dangerous for us and for the whole world. Not only have we opened the way for the aggressor, but we are also clearing it for more aggressions around the world. It is high time to stop doing this and amend the nuclear doctrine to make it clear that any attack on our territory must get a nuclear response,” the expert said. Sergei Karaganov foresaw two scenarios: “either we condemn ourselves to a long and bloody war, or we will have to allow the massive use of nuclear weapons as a gesture of despair.”

The Kremlin confirmed on 04 September 2024 that Moscow is working on an updated nuclear doctrine, taking into account the actions of the collective West. Veteran military analyst and retired Russian Army Colonel Viktor Litovkin breaks down the details of Russia’s current nuclear doctrine, and comments on what the updated document may entail. “Against the backdrop of challenges and threats provoked by the countries of the so-called Collective West, the Russian Federation is currently working to develop new approaches in the context of the upcoming renewal of the nuclear doctrine,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Wednesday on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok.

“This update is required by the current agenda and state affairs which arose as a consequence of the actions of the collective West,” Peskov said. “What kinds of actions are we talking about? They include the rejection of dialogue with the Russian Federation, the continued policy of attacking the interests and security of the Russian Federation, and provoking the protraction of the hot war in Ukraine. This cannot but have consequences. All of this has been taken account of by Moscow, is being analyzed, and will form the basis for the proposals that will be formulated.”

Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova clarified that the update to the nuclear doctrine is connected to the “strategic risks” resulting from Western countries’ policy in general, and to “global and regional challenges to international security which are multiplying thanks to the absolutely irresponsible position of the West.”

“The United States and NATO are becoming increasingly aggressive toward Russia, and we need to make clarifications to some fundamental documents” regarding Russia’s nuclear doctrine, veteran military analyst Viktor Litovkin told Sputnik 04 September 2024.

“The war in Ukraine is not a war between Ukraine and Russia. It is a war between the West and Russia using the territory of Ukraine, and the lives of Ukrainian servicemen. It is an attempt to weaken Russia, to bring Russia to ruin and to deprive Russia of its competitive advantage in the international arena,” Litovkin explained.

Russia “is not going to seek hegemony, as the US is doing, but we are also not going to lose our independence, sovereignty and right to independent action,” Litovkin added.

NATO has tested Moscow’s red lines repeatedly over the course of the proxy conflict in Ukraine, gradually ramping up the deadliness of offensive strike systems sent to Kiev, providing the Zelensky regime with intelligence and other battlefield support, looking the other way on the flow of mercenaries to the battlefield (which some Russian commanders suspect include active duty NATO servicemen), sabotaging peace talks, boasting openly about the alliance’s intention to use the crisis to try to “weaken Russia” and fight Russia 'to the last Ukrainian', and feigning ignorance of Ukraine’s attempts to target the assets of Russia’s nuclear triad.

Russia’s current nuclear doctrine consists of four key points divided among two documents, according to Litovkin – one being Russia’s general Military Doctrine, and the other a June 2020 presidential decree ‘On the Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence’.

The former provides for the use of nuclear weapons in two cases:

1. if Russia or its allies are attacked by a country or coalition of countries using nuclear weapons,
2. if Russia is attacked by an aggressor or coalition of aggressors using conventional means so severe the very existence of the state is threatened.

The latter allows Russia to fire its nuclear weapons:

1. if it becomes aware that a ballistic missile has been launched toward it, or
2. if a strike is launched at government and military command and control centers.

Litovkin believes the ultimate goal of the updated Russian nuclear doctrine will be “to combine these two documents into one,” and “clarify the role of nuclear weapons in ensuring Russia’s security and ensuring deterrence against a possible aggressor.” Litovkin said “I believe these two documents will form the basis of the new military doctrine. There may also be some additional clarifications in connection with the fact that the international situation is changing”.

Russia’s nuclear doctrine urgently needs to be revised to allow a nuclear response to any major military aggression against the country, former Kremlin adviser Sergey Karaganov stated on 11 Septembe 2024. The former foreign policy adviser to the deputy head of the Russian presidential administration told the Kommersant daily that the existing document is “woefully outdated” and no longer serves as an effective deterrent.

Adopted in 2020, Russia’s nuclear doctrine does not provide for pre-emptive nuclear strikes and envisages the use of nuclear weapons only in “exceptional cases” in the face of a “threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity” of the country. According to Karaganov, this approach has rendered it nearly useless and has effectively “excluded” the nuclear deterrence factor from Russia’s military and foreign policy arsenal. “We have allowed the situation to deteriorate to a point when our adversaries believe we will not use nuclear weapons under any circumstances,” the political scientist said. “Having nuclear weapons without being able to convince your enemies that you are ready to use them is suicide.”

A failure to have an effective nuclear deterrent policy “would plunge the world into a series of wars that would inevitably turn nuclear and end up with the World War III,” Karaganov believes, adding that this could happen “within the span of several years.”

“The main goal of a doctrine should be in convincing all current and future enemies that Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons.” His words came amid the continued Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk Region and Kiev’s attempts to receive permission for the use of Western long-range missiles to strike deep inside the country. “It’s high time we stated that any massive strikes against our territory give us a right to respond with a nuclear strike,” Karaganov insists. He also called on Moscow to clearly define the “nuclear escalation” steps in the next doctrine to leave Russia’s adversaries no room for doubt about whether it is ready to use its nuclear arsenal and when.

President Vladimir Putin had repeatedly demonstrated a more reserved position on the issue. Talking to Karaganov at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in June, the president said that Russia was “not brandishing” nuclear weapons and expressed hope that “it will never come” to a nuclear exchange between Moscow and the West. Moscow “has no reasons to even think about” using nuclear weapons, he said at the time, calling on Russian officials to not even “touch upon” the subject of nuclear weapons unless absolutely necessary. Later in June, Putin also said that Russia did not “need a preventive strike yet, because the enemy is guaranteed to be destroyed in a retaliatory strike.” He did not rule out changes to the doctrine, though.

Removing restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western weapons would directly involve the US and its allies in the conflict with Russia and would be met with an appropriate response, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned 12 September 2024. The West has sent Ukraine long-range missiles such as Storm Shadows and ATACMS, which Kiev has so far used against Crimea and Donbass. In the past several days, however, the US and UK had suggested they might allow these weapons to be used to strike targets deeper into internationally recognized Russian territory. “We are not talking about allowing or prohibiting the Kiev regime from striking Russian territory,” Putin said. “It is doing so already, with unmanned aerial vehicles and other means.” Ukraine lacks the capability to use Western long-range systems, Putin added, noting that targeting for such strikes requires intelligence from NATO satellites, while firing solutions can “only be entered by NATO military personnel.”

“If this decision is made, it will mean nothing less than the direct participation of NATO countries, the US and European countries, in the conflict in Ukraine,” the Russian president said. “Their direct participation, of course, significantly changes the very essence, the very nature of the conflict.” With that in mind, Putin added, Russia will “make the appropriate decisions based on the threats facing us.”

"I believe that NATO countries skeptical to the use of long range weapons deep inside Russian territory don't want to be involved in giving permission for their use," Mikael Valtersson, former officer of Swedish Armed Forces and former defense politician and chief of staff with Sweden Democrats, told Sputnik 12 September 2024. The nationalistic Sweden Democrats is a party which all Swedish parliamentary parties view as undemocratic and xenophobic. While the pundit did not expect Russia to retaliate with tactical nuclear weapons – unless NATO attacks it with nukes – he did not rule out that Moscow would provide long-range missiles to countries deemed adversaries by the West. "NATO has made small steps all the time, mostly to avoid a large step that Russia must answer to. This will probably be so this time too, but slowly the western countries are getting closer to a harsh Russian response, when enough is enough," Valtersson said.

Nothing prevents Ukrainian military personnel from entering coordinates to hit targets with Storm Shadow or ATACMS missiles in Crimea and the "new territories" right now - this does not require the direct participation of NATO soldiers . Why they might be needed when entering coordinates of the "old territories" is unclear. But the meaning of this statement is clear - the Russian leadership is trying at the last moment to convince NATO not to make a decision on such strikes, threatening to perceive such actions as strikes by the alliance countries on their territory . The main question is what conclusions follow from this statement and what decisions will be made.

If in the future the statement remains just a statement, like many others before, then Western countries will continue to ignore any threats coming from Russia without any problems. Either Russia will begin to take real steps that will lead to serious costs for the enemy in the event of new steps taken by it to escalate the conflict, or it will be forced to continue to bear more and more costs from the expanding geography of strikes.

The statement of Russian President Vladimir Putin on the consequences of Western weapons strikes deep into Russia is extremely clear and unambiguous, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on 13 September 2024. "The statement that Putin made yesterday is very important. It is extremely clear, unambiguous and does not allow for any misinterpretations. And we have no doubt that this statement has reached its addressees," Peskov said, answering a question about whether the Kremlin sees the reaction of Western countries to Putin's words about the consequences of long-range weapons strikes on Russia. The West was discussing lifting the ban on the Ukraine's use of Western long-range weapons for strikes deep inside Russia. The issue was supposed to be discussed at a meeting 13 September 2024 between US President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, but in the end there were no announcements on the subject. Putin, commenting on these discussions, noted that NATO is discussing not just the possibility of the Ukrainain army using Western long-range weapons, but its direct participation in the conflict.

Mark Toth and Jonathan Sweet wroted in the Kyiv Post, September 14, 2024 : "The timing of Putin’s threat is notable. It followed the Trump-Harris debate Tuesday night on ABC News – and after former President Donald Trump twice could not bring himself to say he wanted Ukraine to outright win the war. Biden, Harris, and their combined national security teams, led by Jake Sullivan, have all been too afraid of the Russian President and his nuclear posturing – threats, nuclear exercises, images of aides with nuclear footballs, and threatening space weapons. Putin, predictably, is able to play on their ever-present escalation fears which habitually result in the slow-walking and subsequent denial of NATO weapons and munitions capabilities to Ukraine – and, needlessly, the bloody lengthening of the timeline of the war.... Patriot Missile Systems, HIMARS, M1A1 Abrams and Leopard main battle tanks, F-16s fighter jets, and ATACMS have all been slow-walked onto the battlefields of Ukraine by NATO out of self-imposed fears of Putin’s so-called “red lines.” ... Putin fears NATO escalation more than anything else.... Ukraine has already crossed Putin’s number one red line by invading the Kursk Oblast in Russia. Putin’s response? Nothing to see here.... Then the Trump-Harris debate changed everything. Putin saw his opening. Trump, foolishly, was not willing to commit to Ukraine winning. And Harris foreshadowed she would largely stay the course with Biden’s self-defeating incremental risk-averse approach to arming and equipping the AFU. ... Putin bluffed – and once again Biden wavered.... Escalation paralysis is alive and well at the White House and it is crippling NATO and Ukraine."