Putin's Nuclear Crisis - May 2022

Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines for her Senate May 10 testimony stated "We’re supporting Ukraine but also we don’t want to ultimately end up in World War III and we don’t want to end up in a situation where actors are using nuclear weapons. Our view is, as General Berrier indicated, there’s not a sort of an imminent potential for Putin to use nuclear weapons. We perceive that … as something that he is unlikely to do unless there is effectively an existential threat to his regime and to Russia from his perspective.

"We do think that that could be the case in the event he perceives that he is losing the war in Ukraine, and that NATO is sort of, in effect, either intervening or about to intervene in that context, which would obviously contribute to a perception that he is about to lose the war in Ukraine.

"But that there are a lot of things that he would do in the context of escalation before he would get to a nuclear weapon, and also that he would be likely to engage in some signaling beyond what he has done thus far before doing so."

The ongoing conflict on the territory of Ukraine always has the risk of it turning into a full-fledged nuclear war. On May 12, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia Dmitry Medvedev wrote about this in his Telegram channel. As the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation noted, foreign analysts continue their "endless talk" about the war between NATO and Russia, trying to introduce into the mass consciousness the thesis that the Russian side allegedly scares the whole world with a nuclear conflict. He also added that in connection with the proxy war unleashed by Western countries with Russia, it is necessary once again to articulate things very clearly, and so obvious to all reasonable people.

"1. NATO pumping Ukraine with weapons, training its troops to use Western technology, sending mercenaries and conducting exercises of the Alliance countries near our borders increase the likelihood of a direct and open conflict between NATO and Russia instead of their “war of proxy”. 2. Such a conflict always has the risk of turning into a full-fledged nuclear war. 3. This will be a catastrophic scenario for everyone, ” Medvedev wrote in his message.

"That's all. Therefore, do not lie to yourself and others. You just need to think about the possible consequences of your actions. And do not choke on your own saliva in the paroxysms of Russophobia!” - concluded the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia.

Igor Korotchenko , editor-in-chief of the National Defense magazine, on 12 May 2022 advised the Russian authorities, in response to the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, to reload Caliber and Iskander in the western direction with nuclear warheads. It is necessary to make changes to the military doctrine, specifying the conditions for the use of tactical nuclear weapons in response to possible aggression, Korotchenko believes. He recalled that by the summer the Armed Forces of Finland and Sweden will be in NATO. On their territory at any moment the deployment of strike groups can occur. Russia will be able to achieve full parity with NATO, Korotchenko believes, only at significant financial and time costs. But the Western Military District and the Baltic Fleet can neutralize the threat of the alliance with tactical nuclear weapons.

"The only and practically uncontested means of restoring parity in this case will be the transfer of tactical nuclear warheads to the troops of the Western Military District and the Baltic Fleet. Accordingly, to the Iskander missile systems based in the Western Military District. And also on the Caliber missiles, which are on the ships and submarines of the Baltic Fleet. All of them should already have nuclear warheads installed as a deterrent for the Alliance. And this is the only way.

"Such actions will require a change in the nature of the Russian military Doctrine, which should more clearly spell out the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Specifically: in what cases it can be applied, in what circumstances. That is, the military-political argumentation of such an application should be clarified....

" The simple violation of military parity, the creation of a clear imbalance in the number of troops, the ratio of weapons and military equipment, we can eliminate only by relying on tactical nuclear weapons."

In an interview with Le Monde 23 May 2022, Director of the French Institute of International Relations Thomas Gomart said "Russia is waging a colonial war under nuclear protection. The launching of the "special military operation" was accompanied by explicit nuclear rhetoric. Mr. Putin has acted to subjugate Ukraine and inhibit the West. The strategic turning point is not so much the Russian aggression, which is merely a continuation of the 2014 aggression, as the Ukrainian ability to counter it. Russia has also implemented a position of aggressive safeguarding through its nuclear power. This breaks with the cautious approach observed by Moscow and Washington since the Cuban missile crisis in 1962." Former President Donald Trump warned Wyoming rally-goers "You may end up with a Third World War because of the stupidity of what we're saying and what we're doing," he said. "And we want to help people because of what's happening to them; they're being obliterated. But you know, we could end up in a Third World War because of the way we're going about it. And I never thought that would be possible." He predicted it "would be like no other war" due to "renovated and brand new nuclear weapons."

"I completely rebuilt the United States military," Trump said. "I hated to do it because I saw the power. I know the power better than anybody. I know the power. And we are in a position that I never thought we'd be in. We have a major country, every day he mentions nuclear, nuclear, nuclear, and China's doing things that they would have never done with us."

"I don't think our country has ever been in a worse position, in a weaker position, a more pathetic position, and a lot of it started from the way we withdrew from Afghanistan," he said. When he was president, "we were respected. Nobody was going to war with us." He said "We didn't have to go to war for people to know that we were the toughest and we were the strongest. We did it in a much different way".

Biden touched on the nuclear question in a New York Times op-ed published on 31 May 2022, writing: "I know many people around the world are concerned about the use of nuclear weapons. We currently see no indication that Russia has intent to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, though Russia’s occasional rhetoric to rattle the nuclear saber is itself dangerous and extremely irresponsible. Let me be clear: Any use of nuclear weapons in this conflict on any scale would be completely unacceptable to us as well as the rest of the world and would entail severe consequences.""