Putin's Nuclear Crisis - January 2022

"NATO needs to collect up its belongings and go back to the borders of 1997," Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said 09 January 2022. "Even a layman understands that demanding concessions from Russia in a situation where NATO has been striving throughout the past decades to 'drive back' our country and turn it - if not into a subordinate, then at least to a secondary role in European and international politics - and to do so with direct damage to our security, will no longer work. This is all in the past," he said. "I can say that that...the demands of the United States and other NATO countries that we carry out some 'de-escalation measures' on our territory are out of the question. This is a non-starter in the literal sense of the word. If the Americans want to talk about changing our approach, for example, to the Minsk Package of Measures [on peace in Ukraine] or even stutter about something like Crimea, this also has no chance for discussions," Ryabkov said.

Evelyn Farkas, who served as US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia under Barack Obama, aregued on 11 January 2022 that "The only way to reassert the primacy of international law and sanctity of international borders, and contain Russia, may be to issue our own ultimatum. We must not only condemn Russia’s illegal occupations of Ukraine and Georgia, but we must demand a withdrawal from both countries by a certain date and organize coalition forces willing to take action to enforce it. … The horrible possibility exists that Americans, with our European allies, must use our military to roll back Russians – even at the risk of direct combat. But if we don’t now, Putin will force us to fight another day, likely to defend our Baltic or other East European allies."

The United States and Russia would hold much-anticipated talks on 10 January 2021, with the rivals due to negotiate on nuclear arms control and mounting tensions over Ukraine. "The United States looks forward to engaging with Russia," a spokesperson for the National Security Council said, on condition of anonymity. "When we sit down to talk, Russia can put its concerns on the table and we will put our concerns on the table with Russia's activities as well." Moscow and NATO representatives are then expected to meet January 12, while Russia and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), which includes the United States, would meet January 13.

The EU's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, complained that the bloc had been left out — he said he wasn't even asked — when it came to security in Europe and in Ukraine. When it comes to the relationship with Russia, there are clear differences within NATO and the EU, depending on the interests of the member states. The EU was understandably reluctant to target the sector that would really hurt Russia, namely energy supplies.

"I don't think we're going to see any breakthroughs in the coming week," US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a CNN interview 10 January 2021. "To make actual progress, it's very hard to see that happening when there's an ongoing escalation, when Russia has a gun to the head of Ukraine with 100,000 troops near its borders," Blinken said in an interview with ABC News.

To abandon its demands for a more-limited agenda would be a major climb-down that Russia seems unlikely to make, especially after weeks of troop movements near Ukraine and a series of tough statements from President Vladimir Putin. Russia and the United States gave no sign that they had narrowed their differences on Ukraine and wider European security in talks in Geneva 10 January 2022, as Moscow repeated demands that Washington says it cannot accept. Deputy US Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said: “We will not forego bilateral cooperation with sovereign states that wish to work with the United States, and we will not make decisions about Ukraine without Ukraine, about Europe without Europe, or about NATO without NATO.”

Following discussions in Switzerland over the future of European security, Russia's chief negotiator warned that his American counterparts “underestimate the gravity of the situation.” While the US delegation came to Geneva for “serious” discussions on Moscow’s European security proposals, they failed to show an understanding of how key issues need to be resolved, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov. He insisted that if NATO proceeds toward the deployment of new capabilities in weaponry, “which are being developed very rapidly in the US,” the Russian military may reply in a way that “will inevitably and unavoidably damage the security of the US and its European allies.”

US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman suggested that the US could alter its placement of missiles in Europe to better accommodate Russian security concerns. This statement echoes Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s comments to US cable news networks on 08 January 2021, in which he suggested that the current talks could possibly revive the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty.

Russia said on 13 Janaury 2022 it hit a dead end in its efforts to persuade the West to bar Ukraine from joining NATO and roll back decades of alliance expansion in Europe, and threatened unspecified consequences in response. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Russian military specialists were providing options to President Vladimir Putin in case the situation around Ukraine worsens, but diplomacy must be given a chance. He said talks with the United States in Geneva and with NATO in Brussels had shown there was a "dead end or difference of approaches", and he saw no reason to sit down again in the coming days to re-start the same discussions.

Russia gave a stark assessment of the week's diplomacy before it had even finished, as talks were under way in Vienna on Thursday at the 57-nation Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. (OSCE). "If we don't hear constructive response to our proposals within reasonable timeframe & aggressive behaviour towards (Russia) continues, we'll have to take necessary measures to ensure strategic balance and eliminate unacceptable threats to our national security," the Russian Ambassador Alexander Lukashevich said.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko NATO and other Western countries must press Kiev into fulfilling the Minsk agreements – a comprehensive 2015 deal that provides a roadmap out of the conflict between the Ukrainian authorities and the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Lugansk, the diplomat explained. “First of all, it is necessary to press the authorities in Kiev into a full and unconditional implementation of the Minsk agreements,” he said. “If the Minsk agreements are implemented, there will be no threat to the security of Ukraine and its territorial integrity.” To facilitate the de-escalation, the US-led bloc should also stop supplying Kiev with weaponry and “recall its instructors, officers, and soldiers” from the country, Grushko added.

David Ignatius reported "To prepare for the worst case of an all-out invasion, U.S. and allied intelligence officials are visiting Kyiv to plan a well-armed insurgency that could severely harass the attackers. If Russia climbed the ladder of escalation and tried to punish the United States with cyberattacks, the Biden administration is ready to respond in kind." But Artyom Lukin, associate professor of international relations at Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok, noted "Ukraine recognized defeat in the 2014-15 war in Donbas within several months. It was not only due to the inferiority of the Ukrainian army. It was also about the level of acceptance of human losses: even a few thousand combat deaths proved unbearable for the Ukrainian society.""

Consultations took place in Geneva on January 10, followed by a meeting of the Russia-NATO Council in Brussels on January 12 and a session of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Permanent Council in Vienna on January 13. Moscow regarded its security guarantees talks with the United States and NATO as a failure, according to the Kremlin and the Russian Foreign Ministry. Experts interviewed by Izvestia said that such an outcome was not surprising. However, neither Russia nor NATO intend to wrap up dialogue at this point. Things will become clear when Washington and NATO are expected to furnish a written response to Moscow. The ultimate failure of the talks will lead to another rise in tensions because in such a case, Russia vowed to take retaliatory measures that haven’t been clarified.

Russia’s representative Alexander Lukashevich told the OSCE that Russia would take action if its concerns over Nato expansion were not taken seriously. "If we don't hear a constructive response to our proposals within a reasonable time frame and an aggressive line of behaviour towards Russia continues, we will be forced to draw appropriate conclusions and take all necessary measures to ensure strategic balance and eliminate unacceptable threats to our national security,” Lukashevich told journalists after the talks finished. "Russia is a peace-loving country. But we do not need peace at any cost. The need to obtain these legally formalised security guarantees for us is unconditional,” he added.

Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s Foreign Minister, announced “We hope that the promises made now in Geneva and Brussels will be fulfilled. They concerned the fact that the United States and NATO would put their proposals ‘on paper’. We have clearly and repeatedly explained to them that we need to have an article-by-article reaction to our documents. If some position is not suitable, let them explain why and write ‘on paper’. If it is suitable with amendments, then they should also be done in writing. If they want to exclude or add something – a similar request. We gave our thoughts in writing a month ago. There was plenty of time in Washington and Brussels. Both of them promised that they would put their reaction ‘on paper’.”

Russia agreed to wait ten days from the end of talks for a US written response to its demands.

"It seems that the risk of war in the OSCE area is now greater than ever before in the last 30 years," Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau said. “This talk of war is more done on the western side,” said Dmitri Trenin, the head of the Carnegie Moscow Center, in a television interview this week. “On the Russian side, there is none of that. There is no feeling of an impending war in Ukraine. But military pressure is certainly there, and military pressure is certainly to continue; the military pressure may increase.”

Pravda reported 14 January 2022 that a Russian nuclear submarine of the Borey project, which carries 16 Bulava ballistic missiles on board, "unexpectedly appeared off the coast of the United States, having caused serious concerns in Washington". According to NetEase publication, Russian nuclear submarine of the Borey project (according to other sources, it was an Akula project submarine), approached the US coast unnoticed. It was possible to establish the whereabouts of the nuclear submarine with up to 160 nuclear warheads on board after the sub started going back to the base. This may have been fake news, but if so it was seeded as a taste of what is to come shortly in real news

Gilbert Doctorow argued 14 January 2022 " Putin’s Plan B would likely be purely “military-technical” in the sense of roll-out of medium range nuclear capable missiles in Kaliningrad and Belarus, to place all of Europe under threat of attack with ultra-short warning times, such as Moscow finds unacceptable coming from U.S.-NATO encirclement of its territory. At the same time, Moscow might announce the stationing off of the American East and West Coasts of its submarines and frigates carrying hypersonic missiles and the Poseidon deep sea nuclear capable drone..."

US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan made it clear in a press briefing that the topic is not on top of the agenda for President Joe Biden's administration, but that Washington would definitely respond to any attempts by Moscow to ramp up its capabilities in the Americas. “If Russia were to move in that direction, we would deal with it decisively,” Sullivan said.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on 17 January 2022 said Russia was “reviewing different scenarios”. He told reporters on a conference call “For Latin America – we’re talking about sovereign states there, let’s not forget that. And, in the context of the current situation, Russia is exploring options that would ensure its security.”

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said 18 Januaray 2022 that the United States and NATO promised to provide written responses to Russia's list of proposals. Moscow said it sought “legally binding security guarantees” after Western governments warned that Russia’s troop buildup could signal an imminent invasion of Ukraine. “We’re currently waiting for the promised answers in order to continue negotiations,” Lavrov said during talks with his German counterpart Annalena Baerbock in Moscow. “We expect to continue these negotiations, it’s a serious issue and you can’t delay the specific agreements on this matter,” the Russian diplomat said.

The United States would provide Russia with written responses to its proposals for security guarantees. This was stated by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken following the talks they held on 21 January 2022 in Geneva. After that, Lavrov and Blinken intend to meet again.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the counterproposals sent by the United States were better than those sent by NATO. Washington's counterproposals included curbs on military exercises and missiles in Europe - a renewal of the CFE and INF treaties. Lavrov said the US proposal had "grains of rationality" on what he termed "secondary issues." He called it "almost an example of diplomatic propriety," while describing the NATO response as "idealized." "I was a little ashamed for the people who wrote these texts," Lavrov said, referring to the NATO response.

Moscow had said that if its demands aren't met, it will opt for a "military-technical" solution, but denied any intention to invade Ukraine.

Claims that Moscow could soon send troops and hardware to Cuba, barely 100 miles off the US coast, should be ruled out because such a move would destroy the island nation’s hopes of normalizing relations with Washington, former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev warned. Medvedev said that the two Latin American countries are close partners of Moscow, but are also sovereign nations who are “trying to escape from isolation and reestablish normal relations with the US to some extent.” He went on “We can’t deploy anything there. Even if, as is the case in Cuba, this is only because of their geopolitical position, their own national interests.” The ex-leader argued that there shouldn’t even be discussion of such a plan, because it would “provoke tension in the world.”

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said there was "a kernel of rationality" in the US’s expressed readiness "to discuss a moratorium on deploying short- and medium-range missiles in Europe, something he pointed out Putin had earlier proposed. "This was rejected for the past two or three years," Lavrov said, "and now they are offering to discuss it."