Putin's Nuclear Crisis - August 2022

Russian President Vladimir Putin said 01 August 2022 that there could be no winners in a nuclear war and it should never be unleashed, noting that the Russian Federation consistently followed the letter and spirit of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The head of state sent a greeting to the participants and guests of Tenth Review Conference for the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which was held at the United Nations.

"As a state party to the NPT and one of its depositories, Russia consistently follows the letter and spirit of the Treaty. Our obligations under bilateral agreements with the United States on the reduction and limitation of relevant weapons have also been fully fulfilled. We proceed from the fact that there can be no winners in a nuclear war, and it must never be unleashed, and we stand for equal and indivisible security for all members of the global community," the Russian leader said.

The hybrid warfare unleashed against Russia is fraught with the potential to develop into a conflict between nuclear powers, Igor Vishnevetsky, deputy director of the Department for Nonproliferation and Arms Control of the Russian Foreign Ministry said 02 August 2022. "A hybrid military campaign has been unleashed against Russia, which is forced to defend its legitimate right to ensure its fundamental security interests, fraught with slipping into a direct conflict between nuclear powers," Vishnevetsky said at the conference. Thus, Vishnevetsky noted, Russia believes that there can be no winners in a nuclear war and it should never be started. "We believe that a nuclear war cannot be won, and it must never be fought. And we stand for equal and indivisible security for all members of the global community," the diplomat said.

Russian envoy to the conference Alexander Trofimov stressed that given the aforementioned situation, Russia strictly followed the 1994 Budapest memorandum, which guaranteed Ukraine security in exchange for its nuclear weapons, and said that accusations against Russia of intentions to use nuclear weapons are unscrupulous. "Russia has strictly fulfilled its obligations. Among them is the obligation not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons. It is being carried out in relation to Ukraine in full, including in recent months," Trofimov said.

He concluded by saying that none of the scenarios of the possible use of nuclear weapons by Russia is applicable in the situation in Ukraine. "Russian doctrinal guidelines on this issue are well known and extremely clear. We hypothetically allow a nuclear response only in response to aggression using WMD or in response to aggression using conventional weapons, when the very existence of the state is threatened. None of these hypothetical scenarios has anything to do with the situation in Ukraine," he underscored.

Russia dismissed the "utterly unfounded" speculations that it may use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, saying it would only use its nuclear arsenal in response to "direct aggression" by NATO countries over the ongoing conflict in the former Soviet state. Trofimov further accused NATO countries of a "fierce hybrid confrontation" against Russia that now "dangerously balances on the edge of open military clash." He said "Such a move would be able to trigger one of the two emergency scenarios described in our doctrine. ...We obviously stand for preventing this, but if Western countries try to test our resolve, Russia will not back down."

In a statement on 02 August 2022 , Biden voiced readiness to "expeditiously negotiate a new arms control framework to replace New START when it expires in 2026." However, he said Russia's "brutal aggression" against Ukraine "has shattered peace in Europe and constitutes an attack on fundamental tenets of international order." "In this context, Russia should demonstrate that it is ready to resume work on nuclear arms control with the United States," he added.

Russia said 02 August 2022 it was ready for talks with the United States on nuclear arms control, despite the ongoing standoff between Moscow and Washington over Ukraine. Kremlin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov made the announcement the day after US President Joe Biden said Washington was open to talks on a new arms control deal to replace the New START treaty after it expires in 2026. Peskov said such negotiations were long overdue, emphasizing that, "Moscow has repeatedly spoken about the necessity to start such talks as soon as possible as there is little time left."

"If the treaty expires without being replaced with a solid deal, it will negatively impact global security and stability, primarily in the areas of arms control," he added. Peskov further noted that Russia had called for an early launch of the talks, but "until that moment, it has been the US that has shown no interest in substantive contacts on the issue." He also stressed that negotiations on a new arms control pact could only be held "on the basis of mutual respect and taking into account mutual concerns."

The Russian Defense Ministry is considering the shelling of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant by Ukrainian forces to be an act of nuclear terrorism under a UN convention adopted by a resolution of the UN General Assembly, the head of the Russian National Defense Control Center, Col. Gen. Mikhail Mizintsev, who also leads Russia's humanitarian response coordination headquarters, said on 06 August 2022. "Under the international convention adopted by the resolution of the UN General Assembly of April 13, 2005, we consider these criminal actions of the Ukrainian authorities to be an act of nuclear terrorism," Mizintsev told a briefing.

Ukraine accused Russia of bombing Europe's largest nuclear power station, the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, and alleged that Moscow was engaging in "nuclear terror." Ukraine's state nuclear power firm said Russian forces damaged three radiation sensors at the facility in the attack Saturday night and wounded a worker with shrapnel. "Russian nuclear terror requires a stronger response from the international community â€" sanctions on the Russian nuclear industry and nuclear fuel," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on Twitter.

On 08 August 2022, Russia announced that it will no longer allow the US to conduct inspections of Russian facilities under the auspices of the New START treaty. A statement released by Russia's Foreign Ministry says the move was carried out in accordance with a clause in the Protocol to the New START, which stipulates such actions can be performed in exceptional cases and for the sake of goals that do not contradict the treaty. "On August 8, 2022, the Russian Federation officially informed the United States of America through diplomatic channels that our country was temporarily withdrawing its facilities subject to inspections under this Treaty from inspection activities under the New START. This exemption also applies to facilities where screenings stipulated by the Treaty may be held," the ministry said in a statement. The ministry pointed out that Russia notified the US that the anti-Russian sanctions enacted by Washington had upset the parity in the inspections conducted under the auspices of the New START, but received no reply from the US side.

"As a result of the anti-Russian unilateral restrictive measures taken at Washington's initiative, regular air traffic between Russia and the United States was interrupted, and the airspace of states that are allies and partners of the United States was closed to Russian aircraft delivering Russian inspection teams to points of entry on the US territory," the ministry said, noting that "there are no similar obstacles to the arrival of US inspectors in Russia."

Igor Vishnevetskii, Deputy Head of the Delegation of the Russian Federation at the Tenth Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, stated 08 August 2022 "NATO has openly declared itself a nuclear alliance. There are U.S. nuclear weapons on the territory of non-nuclear bloc allies. Its practical use is being exercised with the involvement of non-nuclear members of the bloc. Such actions, which are contrary to Articles I and II of the NPT, not only continue to be a significant negative factor for international and European security, but also increase the risk of nuclear conflict and generally hamper nuclear disarmament efforts. U.S. nuclear weapons must be withdrawn to the national territory, the infrastructure of their deployment in Europe must be eliminated, and the practice of NATO "joint nuclear missions" must be stopped."

On 16 August 2022 Russia dismissed media speculations about a possible deployment of nuclear or chemical weapons in Ukraine, saying Moscow had "no need" to use its nuclear arsenal to achieve its goals in the conflict. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said during a speech at an international security conference that Russian forces did not need "to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine to achieve the set goals."

"The main purpose of Russian nuclear weapons is to deter a nuclear attack," he said. "The media are spreading speculation about the alleged use of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in the course of the special military operation, or about the readiness to use chemical weapons. All these informational attacks are absolute lies," he said, referring to the conflict in Ukraine.

The United States said August 28, 2022 the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) remains strong despite Russia's "cynical obstructionism" after Moscow blocked the adoption of the final document of a monthlong review of the UN pact, complaining it was "blatantly political in nature." "After weeks of intensive but productive negotiations, the Russian Federation alone decided to block consensus on a final document at the conclusion of the Tenth Review Conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty," the State Department said in a statement. "Russia did so in order to block language that merely acknowledged the grave radiological risk at the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine, the very kind of challenge the conference is called upon to address," the statement added. Concerns had been raised around the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhya nuclear facility, with Moscow and Kyiv both accusing the other side of shelling the plant, increasing the possibility of a nuclear disaster.