Belarus - Re-nuclearization - 2021-2022

Russia could station nuclear weapons in neighboring Belarus under the terms of Minsk’s new draft constitution, a high-ranking US State Department official has claimed, as Washington and Moscow seek to do a deal on European security guarantees. Speaking at a special closed-door briefing on 19 January 2022, the unnamed American official voiced concern that the changes put forward may “indicate Belarus’ plans to allow both conventional and nuclear Russian forces to be deployed on its territory.”

Vladimir Dzhabarov, Moscow’s first deputy chairman of the Federation Council’s committee on international relations, said on Wednesday that there were no plans at present for atomic weapons to be deployed on Belarusian territory. “Lukashenko has already suggested that, if necessary, Russian nuclear forces be deployed on the territory of Belarus. But as far as I know, this has not advanced past conversations, there are no negotiations,” he said.

Belarus plans to buy or receive as a gift from Russia Iskander-M operational-tactical missile systems and other promising weapons. "As for equipment. I looked today: there are several types of promising equipment that we need. Iskander and not only. We will buy this equipment and receive it as a gift from our older brothers," Lukashenka told reporters on 17 February 2022 at the training ground Osipovichsky, where joint exercises with Russia "Allied Resolve - 2022" are held. In November 2021, Lukashenka said that Minsk would like to receive several divisions of Iskander-M complexes from Russia in order to install them in the western and southern directions.

The Iskander-M operational-tactical missile system was developed at the Kolomna Mechanical Engineering Design Bureau (High-Precision Complexes holding, Rostec). It was reported that the missiles of the complex can carry a nuclear warhead. In the version for the Russian army, the complex includes two types of missiles: ballistic and cruise. The flight range of the missiles of the Iskander-M complex was officially called - up to 500 km. On August 2, 2019, the United States officially ceased participation in the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Prior to this, the United States accused Russia of violating the treaty. Washington had complaints about the range of the Russian 9M729 cruise missile of the Iskander-M complex. Moscow has repeatedly emphasized that the range of the Iskander missiles did not violate the INF Treaty.

The concern from Washington comes after Belarus announced its proposed amendments to the country’s fundamental laws. A passage in the current constitution, which stipulates that Belarus “aims at making its territory a nuclear-free zone, and the state – neutral,” appeared to have been removed. However, in the latest draft the section was replaced by a clause that “rules out military aggression from its territory against other states,” opening up speculation that Minsk could allow atomic warheads to be stationed in the country.

Russian nuclear weapons may be deployed in Belarus. Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko made the relevant statement in an interview with Dmitry Kiselyov, Director General of the Russian state news agency MIA Rossiya Segodnya 30 November 2021. The Belarusian head of state was asked about a recent statement by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg regarding the possible deployment of nuclear weapons in Eastern Europe. Aleksandr Lukashenko responded by saying: “Yes. Then I will suggest that Putin should return nuclear weapons to Belarus.”

“What nuclear weapons?” Dmitry Kiselyov asked Aleksandr Lukashenko to clarify. The head of state said: “We will agree on what kind. The nuclear weapons that will be most effective in such an engagement. I said for a reason that we in Belarus' territory are ready for it. As a thoughtful landlord I haven't destroyed anything [of the USSR infrastructure for nuclear weapons], all the depots remain in place.”

Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko said he had asked the Russian Defense Ministry via the Russian president to get involved in duty patrols along the borders of Belarus and the Union State of Belarus and Russia. He made the relevant statement at a conference with top officials of the Council of Ministers on 11 November 2021. Aleksandr Lukashenko said: “I noticed yesterday that they had sent strategic bombers accompanied by our fighter jets. We should constantly monitor the situation at the border. We don't care about criticism. Yes, those are bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons. But we have no other way out. We have to see what they are doing beyond.”

All the launch sites for Topol missiles have been preserved and are ready for use. Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko made the relevant statement in an interview with Dmitry Kiselyov, Director General of the Russian state news agency MIA Rossiya Segodnya 01 December 2021. Aleksandr Lukashenko said: “Why did I become an enemy for the West? Not because I am a dictator and the rest but because all the sites but one where [road-mobile ground-based strategic missile systems] Topol used to be have been preserved and are still ready for use. You know how the West reacts to nuclear weapons and other things.”

According to the Belarusian leader, the first president of Russia Boris Yeltsin wanted him to blow up these sites. “Because the West and Americans had been pressuring him and he was pressuring me,” Aleksandr Lukashenko explained. “I refused. But when the pressure was extraordinary, I'll have you know (I can prove it and show it), we blew up one launch site. In a forest,” he said. Aleksandr Lukashenko pointed out that these launch sites are colossal structures and include special weapon shelters. “They were kept fully inside these sheltered storage facilities. I've preserved it all. And Americans and westerners have been constantly asking me why. I have not responded to these questions up till now,” the president stated.

Lukashenko reminded about the Budapest memorandum, which was signed in 1994 and stipulated among other things that Belarus voluntarily relinquishes nuclear weapons in exchange for certain security guarantees. Lukashenko said: “I personally signed it although it was not my creation. I would never have gone for it were it not for the previous government before me. It was my first year in the presidential office. Were it not for that government, which had created this international agreement. I signed it after the fact, it had been initialed, and so on. Moreover, I did not remove nuclear weapons from Belarus for several years after that. Do you know why I removed them? I've been keeping them in Belarus in violation of the agreement. You won't believe, I did that not only upon demands of Americans. But primarily due to severe pressure from Yeltsin and the entire team that existed back then.”

By suggesting to host Russian nuclear weapons Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko responded to the West's threats to deploy its nuclear capabilities in Poland and the Baltic countries, editor-in-chief of the Russian magazine Natsionalnaya Oborona [National Defense] and military expert Igor Korotchenko said during the roundtable in Moscow on 06 December 2021.

“Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko outlined a number of new initiatives in the field of military cooperation with Russia, including the possibility of hosting Russian nuclear weapons under certain circumstances," Igor Korotchenko said. “What are we talking about? It is not about the deployment of the Strategic Missile Forces units, as it was the case in the Soviet Union. Obviously, we are talking about the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons and their carriers. This is a very sensitive subject. I would like to highlight the fact that the Belarusian president voiced such a possibility in response to statements voiced by some high-ranking Western functionaries and politicians about the possibility of sending the U.S. tactical nuclear weapons from Germany and a number of other countries to Poland and, possibly, to the Baltic countries. Therefore, in response to such threats, the Belarusian side suggested hosting Russian tactical nuclear weapons.”

“In an interview to Dmitry Kiselyov, Aleksandr Lukashenko did not specify the types of carriers, warheads, their nuclear and TNT equivalent. From a military point of view, I believe this can be Russian tactical nuclear weapons and their carriers, such as modern operational-tactical missile systems, in particular Iskander-M," the expert said. "But this, of course, is an extreme scenario, an undesirable one. We categorically do not welcome it. But to ensure the sovereignty of the Union State, we will have to retaliate if the USA deploys its tactical nuclear weapons in Poland," Igor Korotchenko emphasized.

Belarus is ready to deploy nuclear weapons if under the threat from NATO, Belarusian Minister of Foreign Affairs Vladimir Makei said in an interview with RT Arabic TV Channel on 18 December 2021. Vladimir Makei noted that NATO has approached the Belarusian borders and significantly increased the military activity and the number of military exercises near the border. "What President Aleksandr Lukashenko said - that Belarus is considering deploying nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus - is one of the possible responses to future possible actions by the North Atlantic Alliance on the territory of Poland," the minister stressed.