Putin's Nuclear Crisis - March 2022

On 11 March 2022 Biden said the United States would defend the territory of NATO member states against an attack from Russia but that delivering the NATO-member's fighter jest to Ukraine could lead to World War III. He also ruled out entering the war over Ukraine. "We're gonna continue to stand together with our allies in Europe and send unmistakable message that we will defend every inch of NATO territory, every single inch with the united galvanized NATO," Biden said during remarks to the House Democratic Caucus. "That's why I moved over 12,000 American forces along the borders with Russia: Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Romania, etc., because if they [Russia] move once, granted if we respond, it is World War III, but we have a sacred obligation on NATO territory, a sacred obligation Article Five, although we will not fight a third world war in Ukraine."

On 16 March 2022, Putin said "there were also statements by the Kiev authorities about their intention to create now their own nuclear weapons and their delivery vehicles. It was a real threat. Already in the foreseeable future, with foreign technical assistance, the pro-Nazi regime in Kyiv could get its hands on weapons of mass destruction, and the target for it, of course, would be Russia."

Joseph Trevithick noted 20 March 2022 that : "a significant number of aircraft assigned to Russia's Rossiya Special Flight Detachment have made curious flights in and around the country. ... many of the other Rossiya Special Flight Detachment sorties have the look of a strategic drill of some kind meant to demonstrate Russia's continuity of government plans. The locations in Siberia where a number of the aircraft flew on Thursday were relatively close to known and suspected underground bunker complexes that Russia's top leadership, including Putin, and other officials might flee to in a major crisis, such as a nuclear war. ... The long-distance Il-96 flight three days ago now reflects another option for how Russian leaders could continue to exercise command and control over the country's military and other key government agencies while reducing their vulnerability during various contingencies."

Russia is capable of physically destroying any aggressor or group of aggressors at any distance in a matter of minutes. This was stated 23 March 2022 by the Director General of Roscosmos Dmitry Rogozin. "I want to confirm, knowing the technical side of the matter, that the Russian Federation is capable of physically destroying any aggressor or any group of aggressors at any distance, global distance in a matter of minutes," he said on Channel One. The head of Roskosmos also expressed the hope that Russia would not have to use the rockets that the state corporation creates, since they are "as a last resort."

“Our vehicles are in case of a very extreme case, this is what, I think, the President [of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin] was talking about when he warned those countries that would try to intervene in this special military operation, including NATO countries, so that no one would forget that "Russia has a very reliable strategic nuclear potential and its means of delivery. The means of delivery are intercontinental ballistic missiles, as well as operational-tactical missile systems, and so on," he said.

On 23 March 2022, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov refused three times on CNN to rule out the possibility of Putin using a nuclear weapon as part of the conflict. He said that the Russian President was allowed to use the forces at his disposal to see off an “existential threat”. Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby called out Peskov’s remarks as “dangerous”, adding it is “not the way a responsible nuclear power should act”.

Moscow’s tightly-controlled state TV issued a chilling nuclear threat to the West should NATO wade into the bout by sending peacekeepers into Ukraine, saying World War III may just be lurking around the corner. TV presenter Vyacheslav Nikonov claimed that Russian truck drivers stuck on the border had spotted “an accumulation of American and Polish troops”.

“As for me, Poland strives not just to fulfil a peacekeeping mission, but to stake out the territories which they consider belonging to them historically,” Russian television host and political commentator, Olga Vladimirovna Skabeyeva noted. “They should understand that this will represent a direct clash between the armed forces of Russia and NATO, and how this collision will end is probably not worth explaining… this is called World War Three,” she added.

Russia’s threats were echoed on other Kremlin-controlled shows. On Channel 1, Colonel Yury Knutov repeated the same claims. He said, “If there are any sane people left in NATO, they will not approve [a peacekeeping] operation [in Ukraine]. Why? Because [a collective] NATO decision will mean a de facto declaration of war on Russia… this would be a casus belli – meaning war between Russia and NATO. To win this war, whether we like it or not, we will have to use tactical nuclear weapons in the theatre of operations”.

Vladimir Rudolfovich Solovyov (b.1963) is a Russian high-profile propagandist, TV and radio host. He became a presenter of a TV talk show, Duel on Rossiya 1, a host of a debate show, Evening With Vladimir Solovyov, on Rossiya 1, and a host of a radio show, Total contact, on Vesti FM. The shows are quite similar to the ones on NTV but with a presenter openly and aggressively supporting the pro-Kremlin side.

During the Russian propagandist television show 'Evening with Vladimir Solovyov' on Russia-1 [possibly broadcast 20 March 2022], Yaakov Kedmi stated "Whatever treaty Russia may sign with current Ukrainian regime will mean the defeat of Russia. Final and complete defeat! In the eyes of the Russian people, in the eyes of the Russian army, in the eyes of the whole world. And then the support of India, China, Arab world will evaporate. When Russia sent an ultimatum to the US, Russia also sent an ultimatum to itself. It has not right to lose. It means that Russia has no power to deal with whom? With Ukraine? With Zelensky? Khasavyurt would look like a great diplomatic achievement in comparison. Because Kasavyurt was not a beginning of the end of the Russian State. And this treaty may be the beginning of the end of the Russian State. Because if you failed with Ukraine then why do you threaten the NATO? Why do you threaten the US? You could not deal with Zelensky, so what are you? You have a choice: either you win this operation or start the final countdown."

After 18 months of fighting, 40,000 civilians and 7,500 Russian servicemen were killed and Moscow decided to end the First Chechen war with the Khasavyurt agreement of 31 August 1996. Chechnya almost immediately began abrogating the agreements it had made, demonstrating to the world its goal - complete independence. Ultimately, the peace the Khasavyurt Accord brought proved to be as unpopular as the war it ended, and the Accord is now nothing more than a glorified cease-fire document. “ No more Khasavyurts ! " is a rallying cry frequently heard in statements by regime representatives and by their supporters.

Yaakov Kedmi is a former director of the Israeli secret service Nativ, a special service that transported Eastern Bloc Jews to Israel. In the 2010s, Kedmi became a regular participant in propaganda shows on Russian TV. He plays the role of the “useful Israeli” and uses his status as the former head of an Israeli secret service. His statements completely match with the most controversial claims of Russian officials and propagandists.

Dmitry Polyanskiy, the Russian deputy ambassador to the UN, warning Moscow reserved the right to deploy nuclear weapons if "provoked". Polyanskiy said: “If Russia is provoked by NATO, if Russia is attacked by NATO […] we are a nuclear power, why not?” He said “But it's not the right thing to threaten Russia, and to try to interfere. So when you're dealing with a nuclear power, of course, you have to calculate all the possible outcomes of your behaviour.”

The NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned Russia against the use of nuclear, biological or chemical weapons in Ukraine. “Russia must stop this dangerous irresponsible nuclear rhetoric… Russia must understand that it can never win a nuclear war,” Stoltenberg said 23 March 2022, adding that any Russian use of biological or chemical weapons would have “far-reaching consequences” and that NATO was ready “ protect allies from any threat at any time." NATO leaders should also agree on additional assistance to Kiev, including supplies of equipment that will help Ukraine defend itself against chemical, biological and nuclear threats, Stoltenberg said.

Assistant to the President of Russia and head of the Russian delegation at the talks with Ukraine, Vladimir Medinsky , claims that now "at stake" is "the very existence of Russia as a Russian civilization." Medinsky, a former minister of culture and author of a number of books on history, expressed this opinion on 24 March 2022 at a meeting of the Interdepartmental Commission on Historical Education in Moscow. Medinsky added that the collective West is pushing Russia to destroy the political system and the country. According to him, the situation can be compared with the Time of Troubles, on the eve of February 1917, when the monarchy was overthrown, and 1989, the events of which Medinsky connected with the collapse of the USSR. What is "Russian civilization" and what exactly is the West doing to destroy it, he did not explain.

Medinsky's wording about the threat to "the very existence of Russia" is reminiscent of a phrase from Russian military doctrine, according to which Russia can be the first to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression against it using conventional weapons, when the very existence of the state is threatened.

While the war in Ukraine raged, Russia was stepping up its nuclear scare tactics -- dropping hints that it could use nuclear weapons if it deems that necessary. On CNN on 22 March 2022, Christiane Amanpour pressed Peskov on this issue, giving him multiple opportunities to say that Putin would not use nuclear weapons in the current conflict -- and he did not. Instead, he said Russia's nuclear doctrine was a matter of public record and specified that Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons if it faces an existential threat.

Since the invasion of Ukraine began, at least two senior officials have repeated the false claim that the West is seeking to get rid of Russia. "The very existence of Russia, [of] Russian civilization, is at stake now," Vladimir Medinsky, a former culture minister who is leading negotiations with Ukraine, said on March 24. And the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin, said earlier this month that the West was trying to "destroy" Russia. Medinsky, Putin's negotiator in Ukraine, claimed that "the very existence of Russia is on stake now".

Olga Skabeeva, the host of a state TV show 60 Minutes, intentionally distorted the statements of White House press secretary Jen Psaki. On 25 March 2022, Skabeeva claimed: “Jennifer Psaki’s statement said that no matter what Putin does in Ukraine—whether he uses biological weapons or drops a nuclear bomb—the United States won’t get involved."

Russia’s “bragging” about its nuclear weapons is fueling a dangerous arms race, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the Doha Forum on 26 March 2022. “They are bragging that they can destroy with nuclear weapons not only a certain country but the entire planet,” Zelenskyy said in a live video message to the forum on the 31st day of the Russian military assault against his country. When Ukraine dismantled its nuclear stockpile in the 1990s it was given “security assurances from the most powerful countries in the world,” including Russia, he said in comments translated into English for the conference. “But these assurances did not become guarantees. And in fact, one of the countries supposed to give one of the greatest security promise started to work against Ukraine and this is the ultimate manifestation of injustice,” Zelenskyy added.

Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on 26 March 2022 the prospect of Russia using nuclear weapons was "increasingly real", welcoming a visit by the US ambassador to Hiroshima, the first city to suffer a nuclear attack. Kishida, who represents Hiroshima in parliament, visited the city's peace memorial and museum with envoy Rahm Emanuel. "When the possible use of nuclear weapons by Russia is increasingly real, I believe Ambassador Emanuel's visit to Hiroshima and his experience of seeing the nuclear reality will become a strong message to the international society," Kishida told public broadcaster NHK.

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said the current crisis is worse than during the Cold War, because Russia's counterparts at that time were not trying to bring the situation to a boiling point, they did not impose sanctions on industries, agriculture, and individuals. Medvedev saidthe threat of a nuclear conflict always exists, even when no one wants war, therefore it is necessary to implement a responsible policy.

"No one wants any war, much less a nuclear war, which is a threat to the very existence of human civilisation. In this sense, those analysts who say, perhaps somewhat cynically, but nevertheless, that the development of nuclear weapons has prevented a huge number of conflicts in the 20th and 21st centuries, are right. This is true. In fact, it is what it did", Medvedev said, answering a question about a possible nuclear conflict or a war between Russia and NATO.

On 26 March 2022, Medvedev said Russia’s nuclear doctrine did not require an enemy state to use such weapons first. He said: “We have a special document on nuclear deterrence. This document clearly indicates the grounds on which the Russian Federation is entitled to use nuclear weapons. There are a few of them, let me remind them to you: number one is the situation, when Russia is struck by a nuclear missile. The second case is any use of other nuclear weapons against Russia or its allies.

“The third is an attack on a critical infrastructure that will have paralysed our nuclear deterrent forces. And the fourth case is when an act of aggression is committed against Russia and its allies, which jeopardised the existence of the country itself, even without the use of nuclear weapons, that is, with the use of conventional weapons.”

Medvedev added that there was a “determination to defend the independence, sovereignty of our country, not to give anyone a reason to doubt even the slightest that we are ready to give a worthy response to any infringement on our country, on its independence”.

Russia’s onslaught on Ukraine left many Americans worried that the US will be drawn directly into the conflict and could be targeted with nuclear weapons, with a poll released 28 March 2022 reflecting a level of anxiety that has echoes of the Cold War era. Close to half of Americans say they are very concerned that Russia would directly target the US with nuclear weapons, and an additional 3 in 10 are somewhat concerned about that, according to the poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Seventy-one percent of Americans say the conflict has increased the possibility of nuclear weapons being used anywhere in the world.

Kremlin spokesman Peskov told US broadcaster PBS in an interview 28 March 2022 that Russia would only resort to nuclear weapons in the case of a “threat to the existence” of the country. “But any outcome of the operation (in Ukraine), of course, is not a reason for usage of a nuclear weapon,” he said, echoing comments he made to CNN last week. “We have a security concept that very clearly states that only when there is a threat for existence of the state, in our country, we can use and we will actually use nuclear weapons to eliminate the threat for the existence of our country.”