Putin's Nuclear Crisis - June 2022

By David E. Sanger and William J. Broad reported June 1, 2022 "Those consequences, though, would almost certainly be nonnuclear, officials said — a sharp contrast to the kind of threats of nuclear escalation that Washington and Moscow pursued during the Cold War.... A sign of the risks of this new age has been a series of urgent meetings in the administration to map out how Mr. Biden should respond if Russia conducts a nuclear detonation in Ukraine or around the Black Sea. Officials will not discuss the classified results of those tabletop exercises.... "If you respond in kind, you lose the moral high ground and the ability to harness a global coalition," said Jon B. Wolfsthal, a nuclear expert who was on the National Security Council during the Obama administration. Mr. Wolfsthal noted that in 2016, the Obama administration ran a war game in which participants agreed that a nonnuclear response to a Russian strike was the best option."

No one has the desire to start a nuclear war, but it is a mistake to say that it is impossible. This was stated by Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia Dmitry Medvedev on June 2 in an interview with Al Jazeera TV channel. He recalled that nuclear weapons have already been used in the history of mankind. "You see, when they say that it is impossible, because it is never possible, they are always mistaken. Moreover, nuclear weapons have already been used in the history of mankind. This, too, should not be forgotten. It is also natural that no one wants a nuclear war ," Medvedev said. The Deputy Chairman of the Security Council noted that it is necessary to make every effort to prevent such a conflict. According to Medvedev, it is required "that the decisions that are made by countries be taken with a cold head, taking into account all the realities."

Today, 95% of the grouping of the Strategic Missile Forces (RVSN) of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is in a state of constant combat readiness. This was announced on June 5 by the commander of the Strategic Missile Forces Sergei Karakaev. "The first is the task of supporting the grouping in which we are, including at the stage of rearmament with combat construction, which is actively taking place today in the missile forces. And I must note, in spite of everything, 95% of the group are in constant combat readiness," he said in the Military Acceptance program on the Zvezda TV channel.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his 10 June 2021 address to the participants of the Copenhagen Democracy Summit said : "we should all recall the Budapest Memorandum, the violation of which by Russia adds maximum cynicism to this picture. With this violation, Russia has put an end to the entire struggle for nuclear disarmament in the world. What is the point of talking about nuclear disarmament now that Ukraine, whose third-largest nuclear arsenal has been taken away, has been attacked by a state that was among those who signed a pledge to refrain from aggression and still remains a nuclear state?"

Russia has never threatened anyone with nuclear weapons, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said 24 June 2022. This is how she reacted to the statements at the conference of the states-participants of the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). "The statements made on the eve of the conference of the participating states in the context of the Ukrainian conflict regarding "mutual threats to use nuclear weapons", as well as individual statements from the rostrum of the conference about "nuclear blackmail" allegedly undertaken by Russia, cannot but cause bewilderment. We emphasize again: no "nuclear threats" have ever been and never are heard from Russia," Ms. Zakharova said in a statement.

According to the representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Moscow is acting in the logic of deterrence in a situation where "NATO countries that have unleashed a hybrid campaign against Russia ... are dangerously balancing on the brink of a direct armed conflict." She also accused the NATO countries of having provoked "an aggravation of the Ukrainian crisis." According to Ms. Zakharova, the policy of deterrence remains an effective way to prevent nuclear clashes and large-scale wars. She called "distortion for propaganda purposes of the essence of Russian policy in this area" unacceptable.

On 25 June 2022 Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the decision to transfer Iskander-M missile systems to Belarus. "As we agreed - you raised the question of this - we have made a decision. Within the next few months, we will transfer to Belarus the Iskander-M tactical missile systems, which can use both ballistic and cruise missiles, and both in both conventional and nuclear versions," he said at a meeting with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko in St. Petersburgy. Putin "offered to instruct the defense ministers and chiefs of general staffs to work out all the details related to this joint work."

OTRK "Iskander-M" was developed in the Kolomna Design Bureau of Mechanical Engineering ( holding "High-precision complexes" ). In the version for the Russian army, the complex includes two types of missiles: ballistic and cruise. The flight range of the missiles of the Iskander-M complex was officially called - up to 500 km. It was reported that the missiles of the complex can carry a nuclear warhead. The complex is in service with missile brigades of the Russian Ground Forces. "Iskander-M" replaced the Tochka-U OTRK.

On August 2, 2019, the United States officially ceased participation in the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Prior to this, the United States accused Russia of violating the treaty. Washington had complaints about the range of the Russian 9M729 cruise missile of the Iskander-M complex. Moscow has repeatedly emphasized that the range of the Iskander-M missiles did not violate the INF Treaty.

Putin also promised to modernize Belarusian Su-25 aircraft so that they could also carry nuclear missiles. Lukashenko asked Putin to help re-equip existing Su-25 aircraft in Belarus so that they could be equipped with nuclear warheads. In response, Putin offered to upgrade aircraft in Russia.

Putin says the US allegedly has 200 tactical nuclear ammunition held in six NATO countries in Europe, and 257 aircraft have allegedly been prepared for use.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said that Lithuania's actions to isolate Kaliningrad are akin to a declaration of war. " Lithuania is the same . Recently, there has been a growing flow of information about their plan to stop transit from Russia through Belarus to Kaliningrad . This is akin to declaring some kind of war. This is unacceptable in modern conditions," Lukashenka said at a meeting with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Saint Petersburg.

On 20 June 2022 Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said there is currently "no need to negotiate" with the United States on nuclear arms reduction, stressing that Moscow should wait until the Americans "crawl" back to talks and "beg" for them. Medvedev, who is currently the deputy head of Russia's Security Council, emphasized on that there was no point negotiating with Washington on the extension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START). "Now everything is a dead zone. We don't have any relations with the United States now. They are at zero on the Kelvin scale," he said on Telegram, referring to discussions about a new strategic nuclear arms reduction treaty. "There is no need to negotiate with them (on nuclear disarmament) yet. This is bad for Russia," Medvedev further said, adding, "Let them run or crawl back themselves and ask for it."

Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on the completion of the First Meeting of the States Parties (MSP) to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) on 24 June 2022 stated "While sharing the commitment to the noble task of building a world free of nuclear weapons, we remain committed to the approach that the development of the TPNW was premature, misguided, and, in effect, counterproductive. This treaty in no way helps to reduce the mounting nuclear risks. Neither does it bring mankind even a step closer to the goal it states. The TPNW's approach can only lead to greater disputes between nuclear and non-nuclear states. It does not take into account the military-political and strategic situation and is at odds with the principle that nuclear disarmament should be carried out in such a manner as to achieve a "higher security level for all." We see no realistic ways for implementing any practical nuclear arms reduction measures based on the TPNW....

"One cannot but feel puzzled by statements about "mutual threats to use nuclear weapons," which were made in the run-up to the MSP in the context of the Ukrainian conflict, and by individual allegations concerning "Russia's nuclear blackmail" voiced from the meeting's rostrum. To reiterate: Russia has never made any "nuclear threats." The Russian approaches are based exclusively on the logic of containment, including in the current situation, where the NATO member countries, which have provoked the aggravation of the Ukrainian crisis, unleashed a hybrid war against Russia, and proclaimed themselves a "nuclear alliance," are balancing precariously on the brink of a direct armed conflict with our country. Like it or not, the logic of containment, as long as nuclear weapons are in existence, remains an effective way of preventing a nuclear clash and large-scale wars. Distorting, for propaganda purposes, the essence of Russian policy in this sphere, a policy based on the postulate about the inadmissibility of a nuclear war, is absolutely unacceptable.

Russia will supply ally Belarus with nuclear-capable Iskander-M missile systems, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a televised meeting with Belarusian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka. Putin said in the June 25 remarks that delivery of the weapons systems would take place within a few months. The Iskander-M is a mobile guided-missile system with a range of up to 500 kilometers. Putin and Lukashenka were meeting in St. Petersburg to mark 30th anniversary of establishing diplomatic relations between the two countries.

The news followed reports from Ukraine's northern military command that Russia had fired 20 rockets from Belarus, targeting the village of Desna in the northern Chernihiv region. In addition to rockets launched from the ground, Ukraine's air command said Russian long-range Tu-22 bombers were deployed from Belarus for the first time. The neighboring country hosts Russian military units and was used as a staging ground before Russia invaded Ukraine, but its own troops have not yet crossed the border.

"We are very concerned with the situation and with the policy our neighbors' conduct. You know, it's the Polish and Lithuanian leadership. Their policy is aimed at confrontation. You feel it too, especially in Ukraine," Lukashenko said. He added, "As we know, most mercenaries there are from Poland. I do not understand why they need it, the confrontation. It's clear that there's someone behind their backs, pushing and so on, but it's a disgusting policy. Their behavior is aggressive. Lithuania is the same, recently there has been a lot of information regarding their intension to stop the transit from Russia to Kaliningrad through Belarus, isolate Kaliningrad."

"I am asking you to think about a symmetrical response, no more. They are training to deliver nuclear warheads, so can you please help us adjust the fighter jets that we have, Su-35, which can carry nuclear warheads?" he asked Putin. For his part, Putin said he saw no need at the present time for a symmetrical response, but said, "We have made a decision: within the next few months we will hand over to Belarus the Iskander-M tactical missile systems, which, as you know, can use both ballistic and cruise missiles, both in conventional and nuclear versions."

The United States has always taken "seriously" Russia's threat to use nuclear weapons and considers it irresponsible for Russian President Vladimir Putin to talk about deploying nuclear missiles in Belarus, a senior US Defense Department official said on 27 June 2022. "It seems pretty irresponsible of a national leader to talk about the employment of nuclear weapons and to do so in a generally cavalier fashion," the official said during a press briefing. "In terms of my concerns... the way that that statement read from Putin was 'hey, we're gonna give them [Belarus] Iskanders, you know, and, oh, by the way, they can hold nuclear weapons.'" The United States is certainly taking the statement seriously and has taken the threat seriously from the very beginning, the official said.

Russia's former president and current deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev warned the West that any attempt by a NATO state to infringe upon Crimea could lead to World War Three. "For us, Crimea is a part of Russia. And that means forever. Any attempt to encroach on Crimea is a declaration of war against our country," Medvedev told the news website Argumenty I Fakty, a weekly newspaper based in Moscow, 27 June 2022. "And if this is done by a NATO member-state, this means conflict with the entire North Atlantic alliance; a World War Three. A complete catastrophe," he added.

NATO heads of state and government meeting in Madrid on Wednesday (29 June 2022) approved a new Strategic Concept for the Alliance, setting out the Alliance's priorities, core tasks and approaches for the next decade. NATO declared Russia the "most significant and direct threat" to its members' peace and security amid Moscow's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.