Putin's Nuclear Crisis - December 2022

Vladimir Putin said 07 December 2022 the threat of a nuclear war was rising, but insisted Russia had not "gone mad" and would not use its nuclear weapons first. The Russian president insisted that his country would only use weapons of mass destruction in response to an attack. Speaking at Russia's annual human rights council meeting, he also said the war in Ukraine could be a "lengthy process".

"Such a threat is growing, it would be wrong to hide it," Putin warned while talking about the prospect of nuclear war via video link from Moscow. But he asserted that Russia would "under no circumstances" use the weapons first, and would not threaten anyone with its nuclear arsenal. "We have not gone mad, we are aware of what nuclear weapons are," he said, adding: "We aren't about to run around the world brandishing this weapon like a razor."

Putin also boasted that Russia had the most modern and advanced nuclear weapons in the world, and contrasted its nuclear strategy to the US - who he said had gone further than Russia by locating its nuclear weapons on other territories. "We do not have nuclear weapons, including tactical ones, on the territory of other countries, but the Americans do - in Turkey, and in a number of other European countries," he said.

Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), addressed the danger of nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine in an interview with FRANCE 24 from Vienna 08 December 2022. “We expect that no use of a nuclear weapon whatsoever will take place in this or in any other conflict,” Grossi said when asked about recent threats by Moscow. He went on to call the situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant “very precarious”, adding that he was still hoping for a deal on the establishment of a demilitarised safe zone around the plant. “We need to do this now. It’s not impossible, we have a credible, viable proposal on the table,” he said.”

Putin vowed on 09 December 2022 at a news conference that any country that dared attack Russia with nuclear weapons would be wiped from the face of the earth. Putin said Russia had no mandate to launch a preventative first nuclear strike but that Russia's advanced hypersonic weapons would ensure Russia could respond forcefully if it ever came under attack.

Russia is expanding and modernizing its nuclear arsenal, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on 09 December 2022 at a time when Russian President Vladimir Putin, faced with setbacks in Ukraine, has repeatedly suggested he could use nuclear weapons. "Russia is also modernizing and expanding its nuclear arsenal," Austin said at a ceremony for the incoming commander of U.S. Strategic Command, which oversees the United States nuclear arsenal. "And as the Kremlin continues its cruel and unprovoked war of choice against Ukraine, the whole world has seen Putin engage in deeply irresponsible nuclear saber-rattling," Austin said.

On 14 December 2022 it was reported that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is going to establish a permanent presence at all operating nuclear power plants in Ukraine, as well as at Chernobyl, with the move seen as particularly important "at a time when Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is facing unprecedented challenges as a result of the war and in the middle of winter".

In a speech 08 December 2022 at the 77th session of the UN General Assembly Russian representative Natalia Karmazinskaya said the main threat to the security of ZNPP “is the ongoing shelling by the Ukrainian armed forces, which have been carrying out attacks on the plant since mid-July, creating a real threat to its safety and risks of a man-made accident with radiation emissions.” She noted that Russia did everything in its power to effectively and safely carry out the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) mission to ZNPP on 1 September, despite the provocations by Ukrainian forces. “As a result of his visit to the plant, the Director General of the Agency came up with an initiative to create an operational and nuclear security protection zone around the plant. Its main goal is to prevent threats to the station arising from the ongoing attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” she said. “In principle, we support this initiative,” she added, “but it is necessary to agree on the parameters of this zone so that this does not lead to a decrease in the degree of its security and an increase in the threat of terrorist acts.”

It means the Khmelnitsky, Rivne and South Ukraine plants will have permanent IAEA staffing, which is already the case at the Zaporizhzhia plant which is under Russian military control. The announcement came after talks in Paris between IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi and Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhall, with Grossi saying: "Our mission at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has shown the vital importance of the IAEA being there to monitor the situation and give technical advice. Thanks to this presence, the IAEA is providing the world with impartial, technical and factual information about developments on the ground."