Putin's Nuclear Crisis - March 2023

Russia does not intend to use nuclear weapons in connection with the situation in Ukraine. This was stated by the First Deputy Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the UN Dmitry Polyansky in an interview with the Maveric News portal , which was shown on 02 March 2023. “First of all, I would like to say that we have a nuclear doctrine. And it says that we will not be the first to use nuclear weapons, they can be used only if there is a threat to the existence of Russia,” Polyansky stressed.

"I emphasize that we do not plan to use [nuclear weapons] in the current situation around Ukraine," the diplomat continued, noting that "from a military point of view, this makes no sense." "But, again, it depends on the degree of NATO's involvement and on the scale of the threat Russia will face," Polyansky said.

According to the Russian nuclear doctrine (Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the field of nuclear deterrence from 2020), the use of nuclear weapons by Russia is possible if the enemy uses this or other types of weapons of mass destruction against the Russian Federation and its allies, if reliable information is received about the launch of ballistic missiles to attack Russia and its allies, the impact of the enemy on objects necessary for retaliatory actions of nuclear forces, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons, when the very existence of the state is threatened.

Washington’s efforts to add fuel to the Ukraine conflict could potentially trigger a direct nuclear standoff, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov warned on 03 March 2023. Speaking on the sidelines of the Geneva Conference on Disarmament, Ryabkov said “the most acute strategic threat comes from” the policies of the US and NATO, which seek to “further stoke the conflict in Ukraine and [tensions] around it which they deliberately initiated.”

Against this backdrop, the senior diplomat warned that the “increased involvement” of the US and NATO in hostilities was “fraught with the threat of a direct military clash of nuclear powers with catastrophic consequences.” Ryabkov said Moscow had alerted Western countries about these risks but that its warnings “are being distorted for propaganda purposes” and deliberately misinterpreted. He went on to add that such policies are at odds with nuclear states’ declaration that a nuclear conflict should never be fought.

The issuance of an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin by the International Criminal Court (ICC) could lead to nuclear war, as well as creating other implications globally, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen warned 19 March 2023. The warrant has only sowed further division in the world, potentially jeopardizing diplomatic efforts to reach a settlement of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has been raging for over a year already, the PM believes. “This ICC warrant to arrest Putin will complicate efforts to find a peaceful solution to the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, especially before [Chinese] President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow during which he is expected to mediate for peace,” the PM said.

Medvedev threatened to launch a missile strike against the International Criminal Court in The Hague, which had earlier issued an arrest warrant for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin in connection with the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia. "Gentlemen, everyone walks under God and missiles. It is quite possible to imagine the targeted use of hypersonic Oniks from the North Sea by a Russian ship at The Hague court building. Unfortunately, it cannot be shot down. And the court is just a poor international organisation, not the population of a NATO country. That's why they won't start a war. They are afraid. And no one will feel sorry for them. So, judges of the court, look carefully at the sky."

UK Minister of State for Defense Annabel Goldie said on 21 March 2023 that London would provide Ukraine with armor piercing shells for the Challenger 2 main battle tanks it has decided to send to Kiev, including depleted uranium ammunition.b“Today it became known that the United Kingdom, through its deputy head of the ministry of defense, announced not only the supply of tanks to Ukraine, but also shells with depleted uranium," Russian President Vladimir Putin said, adding that "it seems that the West really decided to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian, not in words, but in deed." Putin added "I would like to note in this regard that if all this happens, then Russia will be forced to react accordingly - I mean that the Collective West is already starting to use weapons with a nuclear component".

Russia — which had always opposed the introduction of any uranium-derived weapons into the Ukraine conflict, responded with harsh words of censure and warning. “If all this happens,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said, “Russia will have to respond accordingly, given that the west collectively is already beginning to use weapons with a nuclear component.” The Russian Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, likewise noted that, thanks to the British actions, there were now fewer steps left before a potential “nuclear collision” between Russia and the west.

While Moscow repeatedly warned about the creeping danger of some kind of nuclear exchange as a result of NATO's support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia, Western governments and media have tried to spin such warnings as being threats about the use of nuclear weapons. Putin has since made it explicitly clear that Moscow intends to maintain its no-first-use policy regarding nuclear weapons.

According to the British MoD, depleted uranium, or DU, “is a standard component and has nothing to do with nuclear weapons,” adding that “The British Army has used DU in its armor piercing shells for decades," the statement added. Moreover, the ministry stated, “Independent research by scientists from groups such as the Royal Society has assessed that any impact to personal health and the environment from the use of depleted uranium munitions is likely to be low,” declaring that “Russia knows this.”

Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev warned 24 March 2023 that Ukraine's attempt to retake Crimea would be the basis for the use of any weapons, including those provided for by nuclear doctrine. "If we talk about some serious offensives that are associated with an attempt to retake Crimea, it is absolutely clear that this is the basis for the use of all means of protection, including those provided for by the basic doctrine of nuclear deterrence, when the use of any types of weapons against Russia threatens the existence of the state itself," Medvedev said in an interview with Russian media, including TASS, as well as VKontakte users. He explained that "an attempt to split off part of the state means that this is an encroachment on the existence of the state itself."

"Therefore, draw your own conclusions: there are obviously grounds for using any weapon. Absolutely any," the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council said. "And I hope our 'friends' across the ocean understand this," he added. At the same time, Medvedev believes that Ukraine's statements about the "return" of Crimea are largely propaganda. "All sorts of statements about the return of Crimea or something else ... You see, this is propaganda, it should be treated like that, and during the war it always exists," the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation explained. Medvedev stated that in order to "exterminate" the neo-Nazi ideology in Ukraine, "nothing can be ruled out" during the course of the Russian special operation.

Medvedev, said "Has the threat of a nuclear conflict passed? No, it has not passed. It has increased. Each day when foreign weapons are delivered to Ukraine ultimately brings this same nuclear apocalypse closer... I have the feeling that until a certain point in time, they did not believe in and did not see the extent of Russia’s determination, or the determination of its president or the Supreme Commander, to do what we did. And they miscalculated. The consequences are much more complicated than they could have been if they had signed a document with us in December." Russian President Vladimir Putin said 25 March 2023 he would deploy tactical nuclear weapons in neighbour and ally Belarus. Putin has repeatedly issued thinly veiled threats he could use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, reviving Cold War-era fears. "There is nothing unusual here either: the United States has been doing this for decades. They have long placed their tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of their allies," Putin said. Putin spoke to Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko and said "we agreed that we to do the same." Russia will have completed the construction of a storage facility for tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus by July 1, Putin said, adding that Russia would not actually be transferring control of the arms to Minsk.

Russia had already stationed 10 aircraft in Belarus capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapons and has transferred a number of Iskander tactical missile systems, which can be used to launch nuclear weapons, Putin said. Putin noted that the weapons would be deployed without violating relevant international obligations.

"So everything that the President of Belarus asked, all the questions he raised in this regard, they are being implemented, and all our agreements will take place in the very near future," the Russian leader continued. At the same time, he stressed that Russia does not transfer such weapons to Belarus, just as the United States does not transfer them to its allies. “In principle, we are doing everything that they have been doing for decades,” Putin explained, noting that the Americans are deploying these weapons and preparing carriers and crews. “We are going to do the same, this is exactly what Alexander Grigoryevich (Lukashenko. - Ed.) asked for,” the President of the Russian Federation concluded.

He also said he would deploy depleted uranium ammunition if Kyiv received such munitions from the West following a British suggestion that it could supply Ukraine. On the question of how Moscow would respond if the West supplied Ukraine with depleted uranium shells, following a suggestion by Britain it could supply Kyiv with the munitions, Putin said Russia had vast quantities of the weaponry. "Russia of course has what it needs to answer. Without exaggeration, we have hundreds of thousands of such shells. We have not used them yet," Putin added in an interview on Russian television.

The head of state noted that the depleted uranium munitions that the West is going to transfer to Kiev do not belong to weapons of mass destruction, but they somehow create radioactive dust and are therefore considered very dangerous. According to him, if they are used, the sown areas will inevitably be polluted, which will create a danger for both local residents and the environment.

NATO criticised Russia for its “dangerous and irresponsible” nuclear rhetoric after Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia would station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. “NATO is vigilant, and we are closely monitoring the situation. We have not seen any changes in Russia’s nuclear posture that would lead us to adjust our own,” a NATO spokesperson said. “Russia’s reference to NATO’s nuclear sharing is totally misleading. NATO allies act with full respect of their international commitments. Russia has consistently broken its arms control commitments, most recently suspending its participation in the New START Treaty.”

Ukraine's foreign ministry called on the United Nations Security Council to immediately hold an emergency meeting. The ministry made the call in a statement that said Russia's move was yet another provocative step by Putin's administration and it undermines the basic principles of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and the international security system as a whole. It said, "Russia once again confirms its chronic inability to be a responsible possessor of nuclear weapons." The ministry also urged the Group of Seven nations and the European Union to "alert the Belarusian authorities about the far-reaching aftermath for Belarus if it agrees to accept tactical nuclear weapons from Russia."

Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of Russia’s Security Council warned that his country has the weapons to destroy any enemy, including the United States, if its own existence is threatened. “American politicians trapped by their own propaganda remain confident that in the event of a direct conflict with Russia, the United States is capable of launching a preventive missile strike, after which Russia will no longer be able to respond,” Patrushev told the government-published Rossiyskaya Gazeta newspaper. “This is short-sighted stupidity and very dangerous.” He said “Russia is patient and does not intimidate anyone with its military advantage, but it has modern, unique weapons capable of destroying any adversary, including the United States, in the event of a threat to its existence”. Patrushev, a former chief of the FSB internal security service, is widely seen as one of the most hawkish members of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle.

US White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told CBS News on Sunday that US officials have not seen any indication that Putin has moved any nuclear weapons. He added that there is also no indication that the Russian president has any intention to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Kirby said US officials have been monitoring Russia's rhetoric every day since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, but that they have seen nothing that would cause them to change their own strategic deterrent posture.

The US has deployed tactical nuclear weapons in European countries, including Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey, which means the US has long deployed its tactical nuclear weapons at Russia's doorstep. Russia's reaction is not just aimed at the UK's move, but more about the US.

"Kyiv constantly talks about the desire to reach the borders of 1991 and receives Western weapons and ammunition for this. Therefore, Moscow is increasing the nuclear deterrence potential of Ukraine and NATO. But the West will continue to provide military assistance anyway. They repeat that it is up to Kiev to decide whether to attack or not ", - says the head of the Center for International Security of IMEMO RAS Alexei Arbatov.

By itself, the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus will not cause any drastic changes, he adds. However, the likelihood of the United States moving its nuclear weapons closer to the Russian border is increasing. Although this is not so easy to do: you need storage facilities, a security system.

“Europeans are more worried than Americans because doomsday weapons are either in their countries or nearby, and there may be even more of them. For Europe, this has always been a very painful issue. Barack Obama, when he was president, considered the possibility of a complete withdrawal of nuclear weapons , but in 2014 they abandoned it," Arbatov concludes.

The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) warned nuclear threats were creating a dangerous sense of uncertainty around their possible use. The peace forces mediating the Ukraine-Russia conflict are still relatively insufficient. European countries have been encouraged by the US to provide weapons to Ukraine, and even countries like Japan have gone to great lengths to provide assistance to Ukraine.

The United States told Russia 28 March 2023 it will cease exchanging detailed data on its nuclear weapons stockpiles, the White House said, calling the move a response to Russia’s suspension of participation in the New START nuclear arms treaty. While Russian President Vladimir Putin has not formally withdrawn from the treaty, his suspension from participating in it announced in February endangered the last pillar of US-Russian nuclear arms control.

New START is the only remaining arms control agreement between the two biggest nuclear powers. It caps each country's nuclear warheads at 1,550 and requires both countries to share details including number and locations. Under the treaty’s “Biannual Data Exchanges”, Moscow and Washington provide a declaration of deployed strategic delivery vehicles, launchers and warheads, including a breakdown of warhead numbers deployed across the three types of delivery vehicles – air, sea and land-based.

“Russia has not been in full compliance and refused to share data which we … agreed in New START to share biannually,” John Kirby, the US National Security Council spokesperson, told reporters in a conference call. “Since they have refused to be in compliance … we have decided to likewise not share that data,” he said. “We would prefer to be able to do (this) but it requires them being willing to as well.”

“The US and Russia…are obligated to exchange comprehensive databases twice a year. We offered to continue reciprocal implementation of this obligation. Unfortunately, Russia informed the US that it will not engage in this data exchange due to its purported suspension of this treaty,” Vedant Patel, deputy spokesperson for the US State Department said at a press conference.

Russia's military began exercises with a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile system. The country's defense ministry announced on 29 March 2023 that the drills involve the Strategic Missile Forces in Siberia's Novosibirsk. The ministry said more than 3,000 service members conduct maneuvers in three regions to operate the Yars ICBM systems. The Yars system, with a reported operational range of over 10,000 kilometers, is said to have been developed to counter the US missile defense system. The drills were seen to be aimed at demonstrating Russia's nuclear capability to the US and other countries which are stepping up their military support for Ukraine.

US Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy John Plumb said that Russian defense officials during their interaction on March 27 with US counterparts said that Moscow would not exchange semi-annual data with Washington in line with the New START treaty. As a countermeasure, the United States has decided that it will also not provide the semi-annual data on high-level numbers back to Russia.

Russia will no longer give the United States advance notice about its missile tests as envisioned under a nuclear pact the Kremlin has suspended, a senior Moscow diplomat said on March 29, as its military rolled missile launchers across Siberia in a show of the country’s massive nuclear capability amid fighting in Ukraine. The transfer of all notifications between Russia and the United States under the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), including notifications about test launches, has been suspended, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told reporters "All forms of notifications, all formats are suspended, all inspection activities, data exchange, in general, all types of work under the agreement are suspended, they will not be carried out. This does not depend on the position that the United States can take".

Russia is convinced of the need to prevent any military confrontation between the nuclear powers. This was stated on 29 March 2023 by Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev at a meeting with colleagues from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in New Delhi. According to him, "the provocative behavior of the West in the context of the crisis in Ukraine can lead to catastrophic consequences," as it contradicts the essence of the joint statement of the leaders of the "nuclear five" countries of January 3, 2022, in which the postulate of the inadmissibility of nuclear war was confirmed. "Russia, for its part, remains fully committed to this statement and, in accordance with its content, is convinced of the need to prevent any military confrontation between countries possessing nuclear weapons," Patrushev said. On 30 March 2023 a petition appeared on the website of Vladimir Zelensky demanding the deployment of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. "Place nuclear weapons from the United States on the territo ry of Ukraine or make Ukraine a state with its own nuclear weapons," the text says. The author of the petition did not provide justification for this proposal. The document was initially signed by a little over a hundred people. In order for the petition to be considered by the president, it is necessary to collect 25,000 votes in the remaining 92 days. Since 2015, petitions with proposals have repeatedly appeared on the website of the President of Ukraine, which boiled down to the acquisition of nuclear weapons by the country. All of them did not get enough votes to be considered by the head of state. The answer to the transfer of American nuclear weapons to Ukraine could be the Russian "petition" for a preventive strike, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation said 30 March 2023. “And how should our citizens respond to this <…> nonsense? Perhaps in the form of a Russian petition for the immediate preemptive (preventive) use of Russian nuclear weapons in the event that a grandfather with dementia still presents his suitcase to a white powder lover,” - the politician wrote in his Telegram channel on Thursday. At the same time, Medvedev fully admits that an agreement between Kiev and Washington will be reached. "What? Tanks and missiles are being delivered, planes are almost ready to give. You look, and they will give up their nuclear weapons. Not a pity for good people. Moreover, [U.S. President Joe] Biden may not remember who he gave his suitcase with codes to," - noted the deputy head of the Security Council of the Russian Federation.