Putin's Nuclear Crisis - January 2023

Russia has ground-, air-, and sea-based carriers of nuclear munitions in the temporarily occupied Crimea, Andrii Cherniak, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, told the Ukrinform news agency on 04 January 2023. According to the official, they include ships, submarines, aircraft, and ground-based complexes that can strike with nuclear munitions. Ukraine’s military intelligence continued to monitor the relocation of Russia’s nuclear weapons. Russians were carrying out certain works at the Feodosia-13 facility in the village of Krasnokamianka to prepare it for storage of nuclear ammunition. However, it was currently unknown whether these works have been completed.

"Military intelligence sees that ground-based, air-based and sea-based nuclear munition carriers are currently stationed in the temporarily occupied Crimea. We are talking about ships, submarines, aircraft and ground-based complexes that can strike with nuclear munitions. Potentially, Russia has such an opportunity," Cherniak said. Speaking about the risks of a nuclear strike by Russia, he noted that "the occupying country is capable of anything."

"However, we hope that the international community will be able to influence the leadership of the occupying country so as not to lead the world to a nuclear catastrophe. Ukraine also takes into account various options for the development of events," Cherniak said.

Russian forces withdrew nuclear weapons and delivery systems from the Crimean peninsula after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, in the mid-1990s, with the exception of some nuclear-capable ships and submarines of the Black Sea Fleet.

Hans Kristensen reported December 18, 2014 that "The news media and private web sites are full of rumors that Russia has deployed nuclear weapons to Crimea after it invaded the region earlier this year. Many of these rumors are dubious and overly alarmist and ignore that a nuclear-capable weapon is not the same as a nuclear warhead.... NATO’s top commander, U.S. General Philip Breedlove, has confirmed that Russian forces “capable of being nuclear” are being moved to the Crimean Peninsula, but also acknowledged that NATO doesn’t know if nuclear warheads are actually in place.... Their dual-capable missiles are thought to serve conventional missions and their nuclear warheads stored in central storage facilities in Russia."

Ukraine's defense minister accused Russia on 14 April 2021 of preparing to potentially store nuclear weapons in Crimea and warned that Moscow could attack Ukraine to ensure water supplies for the annexed peninsula. Andrii Taran, speaking just before an emergency NATO meeting with allied defence and foreign ministers, also said he could not rule out a possibility that Russian forces in Crimea could "undertake substantive military provocations" this year.

"Crimea's infrastructure is being prepared for potentially storing nuclear weapons," Taran told the European Parliament's sub-committee on defence. "The very presence of nuclear munitions in the peninsula may spark a whole array of complex political, legal and moral problems."

Ukraine does not give Russia any grounds, reasons or pretexts for the escalation of military aggression, Minister of Defense of Ukraine Andriy Taran said at a meeting of the European Parliament Committee on Security and Defense, at which he spoke via video conference. Russia denies having or intending to have nuclear weapons on the Crimean Peninsula. According to the minister, the infrastructure of the occupied Crimea was prepared for the potential deployment of nuclear weapons. "The presence of nuclear weapons on the peninsula creates a wide range of political, legal and moral problems. If Russia redeploys nuclear weapons there, it will be a fundamental violation of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons," the minister said."undertake substantive military provocations" this year.

Military expert Oleg Zhdanov reported 11 July 2022 "In addition to Feodosia-13, Russia began to build another facility for the storage of nuclear warheads, but as far as there is information about nuclear weapons, Russia did not risk transporting nuclear weapons to Crimea. That is, storage facilities were prepared, old ones were restored, new ones were built, but nuclear weapons were not noticed in Crimea".

The expert emphasized that nuclear charges on the territory of the Russian Federation are being monitored, and there is no information that Russia has brought nuclear warheads to Crimea. "There is information that missile complexes and "Bastion" (a coastal anti-ship missile complex, which today is also used for shelling our cities), and "Iskanders" were spotted in Crimea. "Calibre" cruise missiles were also actively imported into Crimea, they are also intended for nuclear ammunition", Zhdanov said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin considers the temporarily occupied Crimea as a territory where he could pursue acts of nuclear provocation. That’s according to Andriy Yusov, a press officer for the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, who spoke on FREEDOM TV 07 January 2023, He noted that the threat of a Russian nuclear strike cannot be ruled out as long as Putin is in power. “There is information that Putin is looking into the occupied Crimea and the territory of Belarus as territories for such provocations. All this information is being monitored, we have our intelligence,” Yusov said.

On 10 January 2023, on Russian state television, the Krelimin’s chief propagandist had been arguing for a Russian preemptive nuclear strike on NATO countries. Top Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov and his panelists promote the idea of resuming nuclear testing and conducting preventative nuclear strikes, but one rational military expert spoiled the spectacle by unexpectedly unleashing some common sense.

France and several allied countries of Ukraine had announced the dispatch of armored fighting vevicles as a reinforcement to the army of kyiv. Deliveries already criticized by the Kremlin and which do not seem to the taste of the Russian state television propagandists. Solovyov, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, said alongside his other guests, including State Duma members Leonid Kalashnikov and Andrey Gurulyov, that a "demonstrative" or "preemptive" nuclear strike would turn the war in Ukraine in Russia's favor. Within a discussion on the state media television channel known since the beginning of theRussian invasion in Ukraine for his particularly aggressive remarks, propagandists advocate a “counter attack” immediate rather than “sit and wait”.

Whether “Macron provides tanks” to Ukraine, France must “receive a preemptive strikeas a party to the conflict”, dropped the presenter Vladimir Soloviev. Inasmuch as “party to the conflict”, France “night openly“to Russia, “without fear”denounced Andrey Gurulyov, a retired Russian military commander and current member of the Russian Duma. Gurulyov said France's decision to supply Ukraine with the armored vehicles "is a serious matter."

"And now about nuclear weapons and testing, everyone is trying to avoid this topic. It is possible in case of a direct threat to the existence of the Russian Federation in its entirety...France is starting to cause us problems, openly, directly, without fear. In that case, France should not exist—would anyone feel sad about that?" he said. And to add that “hit France once” will be enough for “everyone is scared”. He also assured that Russia had enough ammunition to “destroy France or Great Britain”.

Gurulyov went on to suggest that the area where Russia has "obvious parity...is in nuclear warheads."

"We're making a huge mistake by not improving this area. We should showcase it and not be afraid of it...do one strike against France and it's all over. They will tuck their tails in, I assure you. No one will want to step in. Only dust will remain where France was and others will be deterred," he said.

Evgeny Buzhinsky, a military expert, clashed with the pair, saying that limited nuclear war "is an illusion." Buzhinsky said "It would be a global catastrophe with mutual destruction on the United States, the Russian Federation, including all of its regions".

"Thinking that the Russian Federation will demonstratively use nuclear weapons, to scare the West, and everyone will get down on their knees, raise their arms and say, 'this is it, lower the curtain, we're going to make peace with Russia'—it's not going to happen. It's irresponsible to talk about a demonstrative strike."

On 12 January 2023 Putin’s defence minister appointed Russia’s most senior general, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, 67, to lead its war in Ukraine. Retired colonel Igor Korotchenko, political analyst and editor-in-chief of the National Defense magazine, is a hardline military analyst who is given generous space on state television. Korotchenko said Putin’s decision stemmed from Ukraine’s receipt of longer-range heavy weapons from the West and the prospect it would soon receive Western armoured fighting vehicles and possibly battle tanks. He said Gerasimov’s arrival increased the likelihood that Russia might use battlefield nuclear weapons in Ukraine. “The appointment of Gerasimov means that all means of destruction in the arsenals of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation – without exception – can be used.”

"The appointment of Gerasimov means that, to solve the tasks of the SVO, all means of destruction available in the arsenal of the RF Armed Forces can be used, without exception. Tactical nuclear weapons are becoming a potential weapon of the battlefield - but not against the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but for possible destruction in format of NVO targets on the territory of the EU and NATO countries - if the situation so requires," Korotchenko wrote in his Telegram channel, calling the new commander in chief "a nuclear suitcase."

Gerasimov was appointed chief of the general staff and deputy defence minister by Putin on November 9, 2012, three days after Putin’s longtime ally Sergey Shoigu was made defence minister. Each of the men holds one of the three nuclear briefcases that can order a Russian nuclear attack.

Russian propagandist Volodymyr Solovyov burst out with new threats towards NATO countries on 12 January 2023. The propagandist was distinguished by a violent reaction on his broadcast ” Solovyev Live ” against the background of Great Britain’s decision to supply tanks to Ukraine. He publicly proposed to hit France, Poland or Great Britain with missiles to show the whole world the reaction of the Kremlin to such decisions.

“Britain made a decision [on the supply of tanks], so any military target on the territory of France, Poland and Britain – we must officially announce – are legitimate targets for us to strike,” Solovyov said. He also called for the use of not only “non-nuclear attacks” but also tactical nuclear weapons against NATO countries.

This time, the Kremlin henchman proposed to launch missiles at the leading countries of the Alliance from the territory of Africa. For this, he proposed to use the “Wagner” PMC group. “Well, well, we are ashamed to do this, but the Wagners have their own equipment. Well, give them the equipment, let them strike from the territory of Africa. Something will take off from the territory of Africa, say from Libya, and strike at France. Or an unidentified ship, belonging to a private structure, and from it strikes with naval drones on the territory of Britain,” said the top propagandist of the Kremlin.

“We do not strike at the territory of NATO countries, because ‘then NATO will intervene’.” But such supplies should amount to a “red line” for Putin, said the war hawk who the Kremlin leader is said to watch avidly on state TV. He said: "Now they're coming in tanks….No matter how much Britain gives, for us, the red line should be simple. “France gave what they call wheeled tanks…Poland made a decision, Britain made a decision. Therefore, any military target on the territory of France, Poland and Britain are legitimate targets for us to strike".

“We need to make it official….If necessary, then not a nuclear [weapon]... And if necessary, then [we can use] tactical nuclear [weapons].... Or should we wait until hundreds, thousands of tanks appear on our territory?”

Japan's Prime Minister Kishida Fumio held summit talks 13 January 2023 with US President Joe Biden at the White House. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedevs accused Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida 14 January 2023 of shameful subservience to the United States and suggested he should ritually disembowel himself. It was the latest in a long line of shocking and provocative statements from Medvedev, who was once seen as a Western-leaning reformer but has reinvented himself as an arch-hawk since Russia invaded Ukraine last year.

He was responding to a meeting between Kishida and Biden, after which the two leaders issued a joint statement saying, “We state unequivocally that any use of a nuclear weapon by Russia in Ukraine would be an act of hostility against humanity and unjustifiable in any way.”

Medvedev said the nuclear statement showed “paranoia” towards Russia. Medvedev also said that Kishida was “talking nonsense about Russia in a degrading loyalist frenzy” which has led to him “betraying the memory of hundreds of thousands of Japanese who were burned in the nuclear fire of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.”

The former president went on to say that the Japanese PM “does not care one bit that the only country that effectively used nuclear weapons was the United States,” and “their only victim was his motherland.” He added that Kishida should demand that the US president repent for the attack, but he is just “attending personnel for Americans. And servants cannot be courageous.”

He said such shame could only be washed away by committing “seppuku” – a form of suicide by disembowelment, also known as “hara-kiri” – at a meeting of the Japanese cabinet after Kishida’s return.

Medvedev, an outspoken former Russian president who is close to Vladimir Putin, warned NATO that Moscow’s defeat in Ukraine could trigger a nuclear war. “The defeat of a nuclear power in a conventional war may trigger a nuclear war,” Medvedev, who serves as deputy chairman of Putin’s powerful security council, said 18 January 2023.

“Nuclear powers have never lost major conflicts on which their fate depends,” said Medvedev, who served as president from 2008 to 2012. He also said the military alliance and other Western defence leaders, due to meet at Ramstein Air Base in Germany to discuss support for Ukraine, should consider the risks of their policy.

He drew attention to statements that "Russia must lose" made at the Davos forum. "[Western politicians] do not think of drawing <...> an elementary conclusion: the loss of a nuclear power in a conventional war can provoke the start of a nuclear war. Nuclear powers have not lost major conflicts on which their fate depends," the deputy head of the Security Council noted, emphasizing that it "should be obvious to anyone, even to a Western politician."

Medvedev published his post on the eve of a meeting of a group created by Western countries that coordinates the provision of military assistance to Kyiv. This event is scheduled for January 20 at Ramstein Air Base in Germany. It will be attended by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Armed Forces General Mark Milley.

Medvedev, 57, who once presented himself as a reformer who was ready to work with the United States to liberalise Russia, recast himself as the most publicly hawkish member of Putin’s circle. Since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, Medvedev had repeatedly raised the threat of nuclear chaos and used insults to describe the West.

On 19 January 2023 the press secretary of the Russian leader Dmitry Peskov, said Dmitry Medvedev's words about the participation of nuclear powers in conflicts are fully consistent with Russia's nuclear doctrine. "This is in full accordance with our nuclear doctrine. Read the nuclear doctrine, there are no contradictions there."

Some “madmen” believe Russia could be defeated, but this could trigger the end of the world, Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill said 19 January 2023. The Patriarch’s remarks echo a statement by former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev. Any attempts to destroy Russia could spell disaster for the entire world, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, warned.

Speaking after a religious service marking the Orthodox Christian holiday of Epiphany, the primate claimed that both the international community and Russia are facing “very huge threats.” According to Patriarch Kirill, the root of the problem is that some “madmen” believe that Russia, which “has powerful weapons and is populated by extremely strong people… who had never given in to an enemy and had always emerged victorious, could be defeated under the current circumstances.”

Neither would it be possible to “impose on them certain values that cannot even be called values, so that they would be like everyone else and obey those who have the power to control most of the world,” he noted.

"We pray to the Lord so that he enlightens those madmen and helps them understand that any desire to destroy Russia will mean the end of the world,” he added.

The outbreak of a nuclear war cannot be allowed, because there can be no winners in it, said the deputy head of the press service of the US State Department, Vedant Patel . His words became a commentary on the response of Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev to those who believe that Russia should lose in the conflict in Ukraine. “We believe that provocative statements about nuclear weapons are not only dangerous, but also reckless. And we won't let them. A nuclear war cannot be won, it must never be started,” the State Department spokesman said, asking that such statements be avoided in the future, as “ they increase the risk of miscalculation .” Patel also said that he was not ready to " sort out who speaks for whom in the Russian Federation ".

Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats should be taken seriously, Russian foreign & defense policy expert told DW. Dmitri Trenin, who served in Russian military intelligence said the Kremlin sees the war in Ukraine as an “existential” fight. "The Ukrainian conflict has so far been a proxy war between Russia and NATO. However, the growing number of Western countries joining the conflict and aiming to “strategically defeat” Russia may lead to a direct clash between the Armed Forces of Russia and Western military units. If this happens, the Ukrainian conflict will turn into a Russia-NATO war. Such a situation will inevitably carry a nuclear risk. This is further aggravated by the fact that, acting out of desperation, Kiev authorities may provoke the US-led military bloc to directly enter the conflict."

Nuclear weapons should not be used during the conflict in Ukraine. Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said this on 19 January 2023 in an interview with Fox News , commenting on the words of Deputy Chairman of the Security Council (SB) of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev about the participation of nuclear powers in conflicts. "I do not make judgments and do not comment on the statements of high-ranking officials of any country. <...>. Of course, I hope that nuclear weapons will not be used during this conflict, absolutely," Grossi said.

Former UK PM Boris Johnson urged the West nations to increase the supply of weaponry to Ukraine. He added that Russian President Putin ‘is not going to use nuclear weapons’. The former prime minister said that the Russian resident “wants us to think about” the potential for nuclear weapons to be unleashed but that “he’s never going to do it”.

Speaking at a breakfast event on Ukraine at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Johnson said: “Putin wants to present it as a nuclear stand-off between Nato and Russia. “Nonsense. He’s not going to use nuclear weapons, okay. He’s like the fat boy in Dickens, he wants to make our flesh creep. He wants us to think about it. He’s never going to do it.” The comment is a reference to The Pickwick Papers, the first novel written by Charles Dickens, in which a boy tells an old lady that he intends to “make your flesh creep” with a shocking revelation.

Russian State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said that the promised deliveries of additional weapons to Kyiv by Western countries could heighten the war in Ukraine to a new level that could result in a "global catastrophe." Vyacheslav Volodin wrote on his Telegram channel on January 22 that "if Washington and NATO countries supply weapons that will be used to strike civilian cities and attempt to seize our territories...this will lead to retaliatory measures using more powerful weapons."

"Members of [U.S] Congress, deputies of the Bundestag, the National Assembly of France, and other European parliaments must realize their responsibility to humanity," Volodin wrote. "With their decisions, Washington and Brussels are leading the world to a terrible war: to a completely different military action than today."

"Arguments that the nuclear powers have not previously used weapons of mass destruction in local conflicts are untenable,” Volodin said. “Because these states did not face a situation where there was a threat to the security of their citizens and the territorial integrity of the country."

The head of Ukraine's national security and defence council, Oleksiy Danilov, sat down with FRANCE 24 correspondent and reporter Gulliver Cragg in Kyiv 23 January 2023. As Ukraine asks the West for hundreds of modern tanks to defend itself against Russian aggression, Danilov claimed that "the quicker we get help, the quicker we can solve this problem". The top security official also explained why he's convinced Russian President Vladimir Putin will not use nuclear weapons, saying: "Putin is just not the kind of person one needs to be afraid of. He'll never press the nuclear button. He's simply a coward."

The United States does not see any signs that Russia might use weapons of mass destruction in connection with the situation around Ukraine. This was announced on 25 January 2023 at a briefing by the coordinator for strategic communications at the White House National Security Council, John Kirby."I would just tell you that we have no indication that Mr. [Russian President Vladimir] Putin has any intention of using weapons of mass destruction, let alone nuclear weapons, whether tactical or otherwise," - said the representative of the White House, commenting on the situation around Ukraine in the light of the decisions of the West to start supplying tanks to Kyiv.

According to Kirby, the United States is carefully following the developments around Ukraine and the steps of the military-political leadership of Russia. "And we believe that our (the United States - TASS note) deployment of strategic deterrence forces and means is appropriate. And we see no signs that this (the use of WMD by Russia - TASS note) may happen soon," Kirby noted.

Former US President Donald Trump said that the transfer of tanks by Western countries to Kyiv could provoke the outbreak of a nuclear conflict, so it is necessary to end hostilities in Ukraine as soon as possible.

"First tanks, then there will be nuclear bombs. End this crazy war, now. It's that simple!" Trump wrote on his Truth Social on 26 January 2023.