Putin's Nuclear Crisis - November 2022

Sixty years ago to the day, November 20th, the world sighed in relief as the Cuban Missile Crisis ended. It was the closest we ever came to nuclear armageddon – until now, with Russia threatening to use nuclear weapons in the war.

"Senior Russian military leaders recently had conversations to discuss when and how Moscow might use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, contributing to heightened concern in Washington and allied capitals, according to multiple senior American officials. President Vladimir V. Putin was not a part of the conversations, which were held against the backdrop of Russia’s intensifying nuclear rhetoric and battlefield setbacks. But the fact that senior Russian military leaders were even having the discussions alarmed the Biden administration because it showed how frustrated Russian generals were about their failures on the ground, and suggests that Mr. Putin’s veiled threats to use nuclear weapons might not just be words." Helene Cooper, Julian E. Barnes and Eric Schmitt reported for The New York Times 02 November 2022.

The G7 Foreign Ministers [Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America, and the High Representative of the European Union] warned 04 November 2022 that "Russia’s irresponsible nuclear rhetoric is unacceptable. Any use of chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons by Russia would be met with severe consequences. We also reject Russia’s false claims that Ukraine is preparing a radiological “dirty bomb”. The inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that these allegations are baseless, and we commend Ukraine for its transparency. We also condemn Russia’s continued seizure and militarization of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant, the abduction and reported abuse of Ukrainian personnel, and the willful destabilization of its operations. We support the IAEA’s efforts to establish a Safety and Security Zone." China’s president has pressed world leaders to stop making threats and prevent the use of nuclear weapons in Europe and Asia as rhetoric over Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to heat up. President Xi Jinping made the plea after meeting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Beijing on 05 November 2022. “The international community should … jointly oppose the use or threats to use nuclear weapons, advocate that nuclear weapons must not be used and nuclear wars must not be fought, in order to prevent a nuclear crisis in Eurasia,” Xi said. A statement on Xi’s comments did not mention any specific nations related to nuclear threats.

"William J. Burns, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, met with his Russian counterpart in Turkey to warn Russia against the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, a White House spokesman said. The talks in Ankara — the highest level face-to-face meetings between senior Russian and American officials since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February — were seen as part of the administration’s efforts to step up its communications with senior officials in Russia, which has made numerous veiled threats about using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine." Jim Tankersley and Edward Wong reported for The New York Times 14 November 2022.

The dire and deteriorating condition of Europe's biggest nuclear power plant, Zaporizhzhia, in Russian-occupied Ukraine is carefully monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna, the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog tasked with making sure nuclear facilities are safe and atomic material is used only for peaceful purposes. Its director general, Rafael Mariano Grossi, recently inspected the site, which may be the most dangerous place in the world.

Lesley Stahl: Is Mr. Putin trying to use this plant as a weapon? And we know that he's weaponized energy in this war because of the way he's used oil and gas. It just raises the question whether this plant is seen in his mind as a way to squeeze the Ukrainians. Someone said to us the other day, "You know, this is his dirty bomb, this plant."

Rafael Mariano Grossi: Yeah, but if you protect it there's no dirty bomb.

Veldink, the currator of warandpeace.ru, noted 17 November 2022 "The main strategic miscalculation of the Russian political leadership was the blind faith in the deterrent power of nuclear weapons. For a long time it was believed that any conflict between the USSR (Russia) and the United States with NATO would immediately become nuclear. And therefore no one will bring to this mutual destruction. However, the United States was able to develop such a strategy of warfare, in which there is nothing legally to blame NATO itself: yes, they supply weapons, equipment, ammunition, intelligence, provide communications and navigation. But at the same time, “Ukrainian” Nazis are directly involved in the hostilities: the Armed Forces of Ukraine, units of Bandero-Nazis and foreign mercenaries, who officially have nothing to do with NATO.

"In turn, US and NATO officials no longer even hide their goals in the confrontation: the main goals are called the change of the existing power in Russia, the destruction of the Russian defense and economic potential, the generation of dissatisfaction among citizens with the current situation, the division of Russia into regions with the subsequent transfer of the most promising territories of the United States and their other satellites. At the same time, the statements of Russian officials about "red lines" no longer work, because after V. Putin's statements about the inadmissibility of shelling Russian territory and terrorist attacks on infrastructure facilities, and the threat to strike "decision-making centers" in response, nothing happens .

"Thus, the United States and NATO countries are absolutely sure of their impunity, because the only thing they really fear is Russia's nuclear attack on its territory. It is not for nothing that all the latest statements by US and NATO officials consist of demands on Russia not to use nuclear weapons in any way within the framework of the conflict. And they get their way.

""... it is necessary to restore the US and NATO's serious attitude towards Russian "red lines". To do this, it is necessary to conduct a real test at a nuclear munition range, even of a small power. Unfortunately, all of Russia's demonstrations of success in the development of new types of weapons (missile weapons for the strategic nuclear triad, hypersonic weapons, nuclear-powered autonomous strike weapons) do not impress the enemies, because they are not used in real combat operations. The Russian leadership needs to show the whole world that it has something to use and the determination to use such military means, regardless of the opinion of the “world community” and “international institutions”.