At the battle of Stirling Bridge, 11 September 1297, the movie Braveheart has William Wallace provoking the English to battle, saying "Here are Scotland's terms. Lower your flags, and march straight back to England, stopping at every home to beg forgiveness for 100 years of theft, rape, and murder. Do that and your men shall live. Do it not, and every one of you will die today. ... Before we let you leave, your commander must cross that field, present himself before this army, put his head between his legs, and kiss his own ass."

Putin's Nuclear Crisis - July 2024

Threats about the use of nuclear weapons from the Kremlin have been heard since the beginning of the full-scale war. This is cynically called “protection of Russian interests.”

Following the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Russian President Vladimir Putin held a press conference 04 July 2024, where he spoke about Russia's next steps regarding the country's medium- and short-range missile systems. Russia could start building intermediate-range nuclear forces after the US "tore up" the treaty banning them, President Vladimir Putin said. "If you recall, I said that due to the US withdrawing from the [INF] treaty and announcing that they are starting to produce [the missiles], we also consider ourselves entitled to start research and development work, [first] designing and then manufacturing," Putin told a press conference at the SCO summit in the Kazakh capital Astana.

"We are carrying our R&D and design, we are ready to start the production process, in fact, we have already given appropriate instructions to the industry," he added. Putin also told reporters that if US deploys medium- and short-range missile complexes anywhere near Russia, the Russian Federation can take reciprocal action. "With regard to the deployment, if you recall, if you do not, I will remind you that I have said that we are declaring a moratorium on the possible future deployment of our respective systems until these missile systems pop up in some region of the world," the president said. "If US-made medium- and short-range missile complexes appear somewhere, then we reserve the right to mirror those actions."

The US tore up the treaties that were the basis of international stability, Putin said. "The first thing I want to point out is that, indeed, the fundamental documents that underpinned international stability and security were destroyed by the United States," he stressed. The INF treaty, signed between the Soviet Union and the US in 1987, banned the countries from developing and possessing ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges from 500-5,500 kilometers. In 2019, former US President Donald Trump withdrew from the treaty. In earlyJuly 2019, President Vladimir Putin signed the law on the suspension of the treaty. The next month, it ceased to exist.

The Levada Cente reported 04 July 2024 that in June 2024, the share of Russians who believe that Russia's use of nuclear weapons in the current conflict could be justified increased to a third of respondents. 52% of respondents hold the opposite opinion. Those who most often believe that the use of nuclear weapons during the current conflict could be justified are respondents aged 25-39, 55 years and older (35%), those who believe that things in the country are going in the right direction (36%), those who approve of V. Putin’s activities as president (36%), and those who trust information from television (41%). The opinion that the use of nuclear weapons cannot be justified is more widespread among young Russians (63% aged 18-24), those who believe that the country is moving down the wrong path (64%), those who do not approve of the activities of the current president (72%), and those who trust information from YouTube channels – 55%.

The Washington Summit Declaration issued 10 July 2024 by NATO designated Moscow as “the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security” while condemning its military operation against Ukraine. It also reaffirmed that “nuclear deterrence is the cornerstone of Alliance security,” adding that NATO would continue to invest in nuclear capabilities. The bloc also condemned what it called Moscow’s “irresponsible nuclear rhetoric and coercive nuclear signaling.” The document was issued after NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg revealed that the bloc’s members were discussing putting more of their nuclear weapons on standby mode to counter potential threats from Russia and China. Moscow has condemned the statement as escalatory.

The US and Germany announced “episodic deployments” of long-range capabilities in Europe. According to a joint US-German press release dated July 10, the US “will begin episodic deployments of the long-range fires capabilities of its Multi-Domain Task Force in Germany in 2026.” Among the weapons that could end up deployed to Germany are SM-6 anti-aircraft missiles, Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles, and hypersonic weapons which are still in development. The missiles will only have conventional armaments, the document said. Stationing these systems in Europe was banned under the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, but the US unilaterally withdrew from it in 2019. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has described the missile plan as a deterrent against “the Russian threat of the Iskander in Kaliningrad” and insisted that it does not amount to an escalation.

Russian policymakers are considering making adjustments to the country’s nuclear doctrine in response to rising tensions with NATO, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated 11 July 2024. Speaking to reporters, the official said the NATO declaration approved by member-states at a summit in Washington this week would require a “thoughtful, coordinated, and effective response” from Moscow “to contain” the US-led military bloc. Against this backdrop, Peskov called NATO a “tool of confrontation” deeply involved in the Ukraine conflict, adding that “work on the nuclear doctrine is underway, these discussions involving experts are indeed taking place.” Nuclear weapons are not the only deterrence at Russia’s disposal, Peskov added, without giving further details. According to its current nuclear doctrine, Russia can use its nuclear arsenal only “in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it or its allies, and also in case of aggression against Russia with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is threatened.”

Moscow reserves the right to deploy missiles with nuclear warheads if the US goes ahead with plans to station longer-range missiles in Germany, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told journalists. Ryabkov stated 18 July 2024 that Moscow will keep all options on the table. Ryabkov said that Moscow would not impose any “internal restraints” on its response to US missile deployment and seek “the broadest possible” number of options, including equipping its missile systems with nuclear warheads. Ryabkov accused the West of using “trumped-up pretexts” and false accusations of Russian threats in order to pursue a strategy of escalation. While regrettable, this will not stop Russia from ensuring its own national security, he added. Any move on Russia’s part would not be a “threat to anyone” but rather “the most effective… approach to responding to changing threats,” Ryabkov said. He also argued that if Berlin believes that “escalatory actions” are justified, then Moscow is free to react “in a way it deems the most appropriate.”

“Any kind of rhetoric about the use or deployment of nuclear warheads is of course concerning and something we will pay close attention to,” State Department spokesman Vedant Patel told reporters during a press briefing on 18 July 2024. “This is something we have seen the Russians do and say, thump their chests a bit,” Patel added, declining to speculate further.

“Kamala with the nuclear button is worse than a monkey with a grenade,” Andrei Sidorov, the dean of the global politics department at Moscow State University (a once highly respected institution) said 21 July 2024 on state television’s prime weekly talk show. The show’s host, Vladimir Solovyov, made his own feelings known by showing a clip of Republican candidate Donald Trump commenting on Harris’ laugh as a sign she was “crazy” followed by a compilation of clips showing Harris, well, laughing.

For the first time ever, on 25 July 2024 the US intercepted two Russian Tu-95 strategic bombers and two Chinese H-6 bombers operating together in Alaska's ADIZ. The Russian TU-95 and Chinese H-6 are both strategic nuclear capable bombers able to deliver nuclear bombs right into the heartland of the United States. Alaskan NORAD Region launched F-16 Fighting Falcons, F-35A Lightning II, and CF-18 Hornets from Eielson Air Force Base and Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson on July 24 to intercept Russian and Chinese bombers that entered Alaska ADIZ.

China and Russia held their eighth joint aerial strategic patrol that saw bombers of the two countries flying over the Bering Sea for the first time, also marking the farthest place Chinese bombers have reached in a strategic patrol mission. According to an annual cooperation plan between the Chinese and Russian militaries, the two sides organized a joint aerial strategic patrol over the Bering Sea, Senior Colonel Zhang Xiaogang, a spokesperson from China's Ministry of National Defense, confirmed with the Global Times at a regular press conference.

A professor of national security and strategic studies at Curtin University in Perth told the FT that the Alaska manoeuvres were "a continuation of their efforts to put pressure on the US in the Arctic region". Earlier this week, the Pentagon released an updated Arctic strategy, which said, among other things, that “growing cooperation between Russia and China could change the landscape of stability and threats in the Arctic.” The new strategy calls for a “monitor and respond” approach to the region, supported by cooperation with allies and partners and “the ability to deploy joint forces around the world when and where we are.”

During a broadcast of the Russia-1 program 60 Minutes, propagandist Olga Skabeyeva referred to the U.S. state as "our Alaska". "Our planes approached the borders of Alaska," State Duma deputy Adalbi Shkhagoshev said on television. Then Skabeeva interrupted him and said: "You mentioned our Alaska. Right now the head of the Pentagon is somewhere nervously hiccupping. He just said that if Russian and Chinese planes penetrate the territory that the US considers its own, the US is ready to enter the war." She added: "Right now the head of the Pentagon is hiccupping nervously somewhere. You said 'our Alaska', and he just said that if Russian and Chinese planes penetrate the territory that the U.S. considers its own, the U.S. is ready to enter the war."

Russian think-tank Rybar atated"From the point of view of the overall situation, we can say that such flights (not necessarily with the Chinese) need to be continued. One only needs to remember how often American planes fly near Russian borders - they feel like they are at home. However, the reaction of American officials looks quite indicative. US Senator from Alaska Dan Sullivan stated that such flights pose a threat to US interests in the Arctic, and it is there that military infrastructure should be expanded. From the point of view of emerging trends, including in the Arctic region, such words should be taken quite seriously. Interest in the northern regions of the planet is now huge, and it will only grow. Therefore, it is necessary to prepare for a new confrontation in the Arctic in advance." Speaking to the Financial Times (FT), Alexander Korolev, an expert on Russian-Chinese military cooperation at the University of New South Wales in Sydney, also expressed the opinion that “this is the first case of a joint flight between Russia and China in this [Alaska air defense] zone,” although the interception of Russian bombers “is not something unusual.” The Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement that the air group carried out air patrols over the waters of the Chukchi and Bering Seas and the northern part of the Pacific Ocean. During the flight, issues of interaction at all stages of air patrols were worked out.

Anadyr is the name of a river flowing into the Bering Sea, the capital of the Chukotsky Autonomous District, and a bomber base in that desolate region. The Soviet General Staff's code name for the 1962 deployment of missiles to Cubae - Operation ANADYR -was designed to suggest to lower level Soviet commanders and Western spies that the action was a strategic exercise in the far north of the USSR. Members of the North American Aerospace Defense Command and their Russian Federation Air Force counterparts met in April 2013 to prepare for this year’s live-fly VIGILANT EAGLE 2013 exercise. The exercise took place in August 2013 in Anchorage, Alaska and Anadyr, Russia.

Anadyr military airfield has long been a staging ground for long-range aviation units including the Tu-95MS. Russia's cruise missile bombers were flown there before the mission, likely from Ukrainka air base in the Amur region. The west side of Anadyr Ugolny airfield, originally built in the 1950s as a strategic deployment base for long-range bombers, stands in stark contrast to the modern infrastructure which has been built on the east side of the airfield to support civil flights. The original airfield infrastructure and neighboring settlement, known as “Coal Mines”, show extensive indicators of damage due to thawing permafrost.

NORAD, the bi-national military command between the United States and Canada, said two Russian TU-95 bombers and two Chinese H-6 bombers were detected in the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone, which is international airspace abutting U.S. and Canadian territory. "An ADIZ begins where sovereign airspace ends and is a defined stretch of international airspace that requires the ready identification of all aircraft in the interest of national security," NORAD said, adding that U.S. and Canadian forces had been "ready" to respond if needed. "NORAD employs a layered defense network of satellites, ground-based and airborne radars and fighter aircraft in seamless interoperability to detect and track aircraft," it said. As the Command emphasized, the Russian and Chinese bombers "remained in international airspace and did not enter Canadian or U.S. sovereign airspace."

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the joint operation by Chinese and Russian aircraft near America was unprecedented. "This is the first time that we've seen these two countries fly together like that," Austin said at a Pentagon press conference on Thursday. "They're always testing us, and that's no surprise to any of us."

This is the eighth joint aerial strategic patrol between the two militaries since 2019, which further tested and enhanced the two air forces' interoperability, and deepened the two countries' strategic mutual trust and pragmatic cooperation, Zhang Xiaogang said. The operation does not target any third party, conforms to international law and practices, and is not related to current international and regional situations, the spokesperson said, when asked if the joint patrol was a response to the Pentagon's recently released 2024 Arctic Strategy that hyped China-Russia cooperation in the Arctic.

Zhang Xiaogang's remarks came after the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) said it detected two Russian Tu-95 and two Chinese H-6 bombers operating in the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone on Wednesday local time, but remained in international airspace and did not enter US or Canadian sovereign airspace, according to US media reports.

This is the first time a China-Russia joint aerial strategic patrol has featured a patrol over the Bering Sea. Previous patrols have covered regions including the Sea of Japan, the East China Sea and the West Pacific. Zhang Xuefeng, a Chinese military expert, told the Global Times that the latest China-Russia joint aerial strategic patrol marked the first time Chinese bombers have reached an area near Alaska, and also the farthest place Chinese bombers have reached in a strategic patrol mission. Through constant upgrades, China's H-6 bombers have achieved significant capability boosts. They can now carry long-range missiles that can launch strikes against land and maritime targets out of hostile interception range, Zhang Xuefeng said.

In a joint aerial strategic patrol in November 2022, Chinese aircraft landed in Russia and Russian aircraft landed in China. Citing this previous experience, Zhang Xuefeng assessed that in the latest mission, the Chinese bombers likely took off from Russian territory, which is closer to North Pacific waters. He said that Chinese and Russian air force task forces have reached a high level of interoperability in terms of command, coordination, communications and logistics support.

Before the bombers' patrol, Chinese warships have cruised in the North Pacific, according to both Chinese and US official releases. In a recent event, the US Coast Guard said that it came across four Chinese military ships in international waters in the Bering Sea north of the Amchitka Pass in the Aleutian Islands, the AP reported on July 12. In response, Zhang Xiaogang, the Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson, told the Global Times on Thursday that the Chinese warships recently carried out regular training activities aimed at boosting and testing combat capabilities without targeting any country.

Chinese warplanes' and warships' operations conformed to international law and practices, as they did not enter US sovereign airspace or territorial waters, another Chinese military expert, who requested anonymity, told the Global Times. If the US feels uncomfortable seeing a Chinese military presence on its doorstep, it should get used to it, or reflect on its own military presence on China's doorstep, which poses much greater security concerns to China, the expert said. The China-Russia joint aerial strategic patrol closely followed a joint naval patrol that stretched from northern Pacific waters to the South China Sea and a joint naval exercise in waters off China's southern coast earlier this month, with Chinese experts highlighting the growing China-Russia military cooperation and its contribution to peace and stability through providing global strategic balance.

Russia will no longer be bound by a moratorium on deploying medium- and short-range strike weapons if the United States deploys weapons in Germany, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on 28 July 2024. "If the US implements such plans, we will consider ourselves free from the previously assumed unilateral moratorium on the deployment of medium- and shorter-range strike weapons, including increasing the capabilities of the coastal troops of our Navy," Putin said during the Main Naval Parade on Navy Day in St. Petersburg. The Russian president noted that "important Russian state and military administration facilities, our administrative and industrial centers and defense infrastructure will be within its reach." Putin also compared US statements about plans to deploy precision weapons in Germany to the times of the Cold War.

Rose Gottemoeller, former Deputy Secretary General of NATO, chief US negotiator of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), stated 29 July 2024 "I do think that there is a difference between the political use to which Putin is putting nuclear threats at this moment, rattling the nuclear saber, and what we see in terms of the military nuclear establishment in Russia taking action. This is something that [US President Joe] Biden and his administration have [said] several times—that we do not see the readiness of Russian nuclear forces really being raised in any way, do not see any changes in the status of Russian nuclear forces that would give rise to alarm, [and do not see] that they are getting closer to pursuing some kind of nuclear use scenario."