Showing posts with label RCMP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label RCMP. Show all posts

Wednesday, 28 September 2011

Ottawa Tar Sands Action on Parliament Hill 26/09/11

PART 1: FLUFF
or Whither?
or Give me some milk or else go home.
Up, Down, Postscript.

¡Ya basta!May not make sense this week without the music; that is, if it ever makes sense: Stuck in the Middle (with you), Stealers Wheel; maybe a bit of Three Dog Night's Mama Told me not to Come; and, in the end, back to Bob and Ballad of a Thin Man live in Ramat Gan Stadium, Israel, June 20 2011.

Holy shit! There are snipers up on the roof. With guns! And binoculars! What can they possibly be doing up there?
Ahh ... must be the girl in the bikini.
There see - she turned over. She knows they are watching.
Holy shit!

There are snipers up on the roof. With guns! And binoculars!

What can they possibly be doing up there?

Ahh ... must be the girl in the bikini.

There see - she turned over. She knows they are watching.

Ottawa Tar Sands Action.
A-and that must be us there, stuck in the middle between 'em.





Ottawa Tar Sands Action.At the end of the day they let us go with a sunburn.

Earlier on the RCMP had been arresting people, plastic wrist ties and all, handing out a printed warning not to come back to Parliament Hill for one year or face 'serious consequences', giving them to the Ottawa Police for booking and to receive a $65 trespassing ticket and an escort off the premises - these are the 100 or so you can read about in the news.

But Ottawa shuts at 4PM (just in case you thought anyone might actually work there) and whoever it is that books people for the Ottawa Police went home - no budget for overtime I am guessing. Rather than put the rest of us in a holding cell till the next morning (which might have been a bad PR move) they just shooed us away, about another hundred or so. "Go home!" they said, and most did I guess, but for the two of us it was straight across the street to an overpriced patio for a couple'a $10 pints.

Easy to talk now, but when they threatened summary arrest for returning within a year my first response was, "Oh yeah? We'll see about that."

What they might better have been saying was, "Hokey Doodle! Look'a that now boys and girls! Here are 200 people in k-k-Canada with some remnant of a conscience. Please come back here every day, maybe you can balance out some of the people inside the building."

What can I tell you that might be useful?

Yi Ming.A delightful young woman from Washington came up to me and said, "I know you. You were in Washington weren't you?" Her name is Yi Ming and you can see a short video of her here. It was a particular treat to see her again - to recognize her, to be recognized, to be given a little more of her story.

Tony Van Hee.I spoke with Tony Van Hee. In the late 80's he and Glen Kealey were hanging out on Parliament Hill, getting regularly arrested and being so pesky that Brian Mulrooney eventually passed an act of parliament to bar Glen from shouting at him as he got into his limo in the afternoon (4PM remember). Glen used to shout, "LYIN' BRIAN!" as loud as he could - I saw and heard this a few times as I passed on my way back and forth there in those days. Twenty years later and more, and Tony is still at it as you can see. Good on him.

Doug Adams.Part of the title of this post is 'Whither?' and it comes from Doug Adams. That is what he was asking me as we waited to be arrested, "Where are we going from here?" And he has asked it again since, so I am now setting out with him and some others we met there to see how we can answer this question.

That is what is most useful and important coming out of the day for me - that living connections are being established and renewed and strengthened - that we are not alone in this struggle.

One more story: I am sorry that I did not get a photograph of the group, just beside the girl in (and out of) her bikini, who were practicing a martial art on the grass in front of the fence. As we were sitting on the patio later having a beer they came along and took the next table and we were able to tell them that watching them go through their drill had strangely invigorated us. And their leader told us that that was exactly his intention - to spread some energizing vibrations to those of us risking arrest. I didn't get either his name or the name of the particular martial art, but I know that we were both gladdened to know that a message had been conceived and sucessfully conveyed - without a word being spoken. Grace.

It was touch and go from start to finish:

Os três companheiros.The Toronto companheira very nearly knocked me right off my perch with her correctitude - her word for it is 'encouragement' - and my intention to do something to raise the numbers went entirely unrealized. (My nephew came along but couldn't take the training on no sleep and returned directly to Toronto.) Three offers of support to the organizers went unanswered (and are unanswered yet). It would have been easy just not to leave Toronto at all - but we did.

Os três companheiros.And arrived in Ottawa after a crippling all-night Greyhound bus ride - to discover that a bus had been chartered to bring people from Toronto, which did not involve staying up all night, but that no one had thought to tell us about it. I was so exhausted at the training session that I began to weep and babble - I soon left in shame - and except for my son's good humour the next morning I was ready to quit, even having come so far.

Petty bureaucracies are the same wherever you run into them and somehow every thread snags on my negative and curmudgeonly hedgehog appurtenances. Again, not being alone made all the difference - that Moe was willing to run some interference kept me both there and mostly on the rails.

So yes, there between the snipers and the lovely exhibitionist something changed, something was learned, accomplished, initiated, reinforced.

May it grow.

Be well.

Postscript:

Gitz Crazyboy aka Ryan Deranger, from Fort Chipewyan.
Gitz Crazyboy aka Ryan Deranger, from Fort Chipewyan.
I almost forgot to mention Gitz Crazyboy. Eloquent and clear, he says, "Let's dream together. Let's do it today. Let's do it right NOW."

Gitz Crazyboy arrested.There doesn't seem to be an official repository for photographs. There are some here thanks to the Washington organizers; and more here.

One of the photographers working with the organizers was Ben Powless - I have mentioned him before for his coverage of events in Peru in 2009. I was pleased to finally meet him - he was in Washington as well but I missed him by a day - he certainly merits praise for his skill and energy.

You can see a collection of his photographs on Flickr. It is always hard to find a good photograph of the photographer - but if I come across one I will post it here later.

JP with David & Moe.A-and he graciously took this shot of us as we left Parliament Hill on Monday (as well as the several shots of Gitz Crazyboy).

JP is worthy of praise as well - we were all sitting obediently on the grass after having been stopped (but not technically arrested) and I heard him speaking with the Mounties behind us, and then ... there he was ... standing up (!) I was quite uncomfortable on the ground, so I got up, and also went to ask, and yes, we were permitted to stand, walk around, smoke, and were in fact repeatedly encouraged to climb back over the fence and leave. But it was JP who first broke the spell and good on him for it. It may not sound like much - but it was.

There are many others whose lives touched ours in Ottawa: Mark the Medic, Brendan the Irish, Sean & Tara, Brigette DePape, a gent from organized labour who lent me his cellphone (for a long-distance call yet! True!), another Mark from Kitchener, Jasmine Thomas from B.C. who sings like an angel ... many many many ... may all of you be well.

I may have something to say about the police later on ... There is a rumour going around that there is now a contest, initiated by someone among the Washington Park Police, to see which branch can treat protesters with the most courtesy and civility and compassion. The rumour was denied by both Mounties and Ottawa Police on the scene on Monday - but I'm not convinced ... and then too, we have yet to talk seriously with them about Stacy Bonds and Robert Dziekanski ...

This video is now available: Ottawa Action (10 min.).


Down.

Sunday, 30 January 2011

For perspective ...

(take two giant-steps back.)
Up, Down, Appendices, Postscript.

Be it resolved that building an environmentally sustainable society will require an end to economic growth.

Peter VictorTim JacksonRichard LipseyPaul EkinsPeter Victor, Tim Jackson, Richard Lipsey, & Paul Ekins had this 'debate' (it was really less a debate than a serious discussion among experts) at the University of Ottawa on January 20. Here is the webcast - do not be dismayed, there is no sound in the first few minutes - best to skip to about minute 25; and you may have to download & install Microsoft Silverlight as well.

There is now an improved webcast here.

Peter Victor and Tim Jackson are the real meal deal. Get their books and read them:

Managing Without Growth: Slower by Design, Not Disaster (at Amazon.com).


Prosperity without Growth: Economics for a Finite Planet (at EarthScan), but in k-k-Canada you are better off to order it by phone from University of Toronto Press Distribution (UTP) at 1-800-565-9523 or 416-667-7791.



Or from the Toronto Public Library:

Managing Without Growth: Slower by Design, Not Disaster.


Prosperity without Growth: Economics for a Finite Planet.



What more can I say?

Hahaha ... here's a footnote - I started a discussion over at Rabble, read it and weep. Quelle blague!

Lester BrownHere is the Preface to Lester Brown's World on the Edge (2010). The whole thing is available here.

This Lester Brown deserves our respect and honour. He sees it all clear as can be and yet he keeps his head up. At one point I thought he was a pollyanna - I was mistaken.

God love him.

(Keep in mind that this is just a small piece of one particular spectrum.)(Keep in mind that this is just a small piece of one particular spectrum.)(Keep in mind that this is just a small piece of one particular spectrum.)

Jodie SmithTemperance UnionWe never thought we'd get very old. We thought we'd sit forever in fun, but our chances really was a million to one. (Bob Dylan's Dream, 1963)

'Reality' TVNow people just get uglier and I have no sense of time. (Stuck Inside Of Mobile With The Memphis Blues Again, 1966)
Folasade
The party’s over and there’s less and less to say. I got new eyes; everything looks far away. (Bob Dylan, Highlands, 1997)

1997?! Man! Has it been that long?

'Djing' from Miss Jodie, and 'yeezy' from Folasade ... turns out 'yeezy' is just a nickname for Kanye West, too bad - it's a good word and should be more than that - there is a hint of yeast in it.

Very k-k-Canadian of me. :-)Looking at this mess I see that I will have to explicitly exclude Miss Jodie & Folasade from any such nonsense as The Bad Girl's Club. I was sort of trying to lay out the four corners of a square montage in time & space - and it has obviously not been successful so now I have to go on and talk about it. Means & extremes you see; with the Bad Girl's Club & the Women's Temperance Union playing the parts of the extremes; and Miss Jodie & Folasade (admirable young women both, in my estimation) as the means. It has not come off at all ... oh well.
It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that Schwing! :-)
It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that Schwing!

Northrop Frye wrote:
In interviews I am almost invariably asked at some point whether I feel optimistic or pessimistic about some contemporary situation. The answer is that these imbecile words are euphemisms for manic-depressive highs and lows, and that anyone who struggles for sanity avoids both. (The Double Vision, Chapter 2);
and somewhere else, more left-brain:
Antitheses are usually resolved, not by picking one side and refuting the other, or by making eclectic choices between them, but by trying to get past the antithetical way of stating the problem. (sorry, no reference);
but Frye lived in Toronto after all and was pretending to be unnaturally reasonable (as they all still do in Toronto); ... He did loosen up a tad towards the end:
There is nothing so unique about death as such, where we may be too distracted by illness or sunk in senility to have much identity at all. In the double vision of a spiritual and a physical world simultaneously present, every moment we have lived through we have also died out of into another order. Our life in the resurrection, then, is already here, and waiting to be recognized. (The Double Vision, Chapter 4, last few sentences).
Imagine! Putting a modifier on 'unique'!

But ... getting back for just a sec to 'euphemisms for manic-depressive highs and lows' ... some of those of us who can survive the basketball dribble bounce of manic-depression and even thrive on it (what doesn't kill you makes you stronger ... they say) ... well, us nutters gets to see the extremes as well as the means y'see; and often enough and repetitively enough to come to a certain appreciation of it as 'spectrum'. And if it ends up in a kind of atheistic stall; them's the breaks.

Steve Smith knew he was dying of cancer when he wrote God's Kaleidoscope:
when my speck of green
first turned the brown of Job's dunghill
I looked up to curse
but then I saw
that in God's eye
all turns are just as beautiful.


(quoted here from memory, and here and
here - but I have a copy coming in the mail and when it arrives I will correct this if need be)
So ... he got to the same place - all turns are just as beautiful.

(Keep in mind that this is just a small piece of one particular spectrum.)(Keep in mind that this is just a small piece of one particular spectrum.)(Keep in mind that this is just a small piece of one particular spectrum.) (Eh?)

The problem with correctitude is not always, or not even most of the time, that the pronouncements (and non-pronouncements) are not desirable - but that ... what?

Ballard StreetI have not even scratched the surface of my trite and limited insights into spectrum. I will leave it to you.

Consider the narrow reality of the political spectrum - what are the differences between the Democrats & Republicans in America? Between Conservatives & Liberals & the New Baptist Party & even the Green Party of k-k-Canada? Not very much. How much of this left-right spectrum is occupied? Not very much.

Or consider a two axis spectrum such as the christian cross; and from there the multi-dimensional axes in the arguments of Charles Taylor.

Consider the media as they make meaningless mountains of molehills.

Consider Sarah Palin running against Michele Bachmann for high & powerful office.

Peter Kent is just a puppet mouthpiece for a paranoid power freak. Oh well. Barack Obama spends too much time reading stuff from teleprompters. He's afraid to make a mistake I guess. Oh well.

If he will not other wayes confesse, the gentle tortures are to be first usid unto him, & sic per gradus ad ima tenditur. (King James I, referring to Guy Fawkes, November 1605)

I was built on a Friday and you can't fix me, you can't fix me, you can't fix me. I was built on a Friday and you can't fix me; even so I've done ok. (Bruce Cockburn, Mystery, or have a listen on YouTube)
 :-)
Next week maybe it will be Sturm und Drang, Fugue, Berserkers, who knows what-all? Meanwhile gentle reader, be well.

Postscript:

Last week I was having fear & trembling around what I said here, so I thought about it and then went ahead - the organizers are pretentious numbskulls; but this week I am gobsmacked over this.

My little brain has a hard time walking around patterns. Maybe it is time to close the blog for good.

Queues de CastorRCMP on duty in Davos.I'm from the government and I'm here to help you.Pierrot le fou


Appendices:

1. World on the Edge, Lester Brown, 2010.


World on the Edge, Lester Brown, 2010.

Preface

When I meet old friends and they ask, “How are you?” I often reply, “I’m fine; it’s the world I am worried about.” “Aren’t we all” is the common response. Most people have a rather vague sense of concern about the future, but some worry about specific threats such as climate change or population growth. Some are beyond questioning whether civilization will decline if we continue with business as usual, and instead they are asking when this will occur.

       In early 2009, John Beddington, chief science advisor to the U.K. government, said the world was facing a “perfect storm” of food shortages, water scarcity, and costly oil by 2030. These developments, plus accelerating climate change and mass migration across national borders, would lead to major upheavals.

       A week later, Jonathon Porritt, former chair of the U.K. Sustainable Development Commission, wrote in the Guardian that he agreed with Beddington’s analysis but that the timing was off. He thinks the crisis “will hit much closer to 2020 than 2030.” He calls it the “ultimate recession” — one from which there may be no recovery.

       These assessments by Beddington and Porritt raise two key questions. If we continue with business as usual, how much time do we have left before our global civilization unravels? And how do we save civilization?

       World on the Edge is a response to these questions. As to how much time we have left with business as usual, no one knows for sure. We are handicapped by the difficulty of grasping the dynamics of exponential growth in a finite environment — namely, the earth. For me, thinking about this is aided by a riddle the French use to teach schoolchildren exponential growth. A lily pond has one leaf in it the first day, two the second day, four the third, and the number of leaves continues to double each day. If the pond fills on the thirtieth day, when is it half full? The twenty-ninth day. Unfortunately for our overcrowded planet, we may now be beyond the thirtieth day.

       My sense is that the “perfect storm” or the “ultimate recession” could come at any time. It will likely be triggered by an unprecedented harvest shortfall, one caused by a combination of crop-withering heat waves and emerging water shortages as aquifers are depleted. Such a grain shortfall could drive food prices off the top of the chart, leading exporting countries to restrict or ban exports — as several countries did when prices rose in 2007-08 and as Russia did again in response to the heat wave of 2010. This in turn would undermine confidence in the market economy as a reliable source of grain. And in a world where each country would be narrowly focused on meeting its own needs, the confidence that is the foundation of the international economic and financial systems would begin to erode.

       Now to the second question. What will it take to reverse the many environmental trends that are undermining the world economy? Restructuring the economy in time to avoid decline will take a massive mobilization at wartime speed. Here at the Earth Policy Institute and in this book, we call this massive restructuring Plan B. We are convinced that it, or something very similar to it, is our only hope.

       As we think about the ecological deficits that are leading the world toward the edge, it becomes clear that the values generating ecological deficits are the same values that lead to growing fiscal deficits. We used to think it would be our children who would have to deal with the consequences of our deficits, but now it is clear that our generation will have to deal with them. Ecological and economic deficits are now shaping not only our future, but our present.

       Beddington and Porritt deserve credit for publicly addressing the prospect of social collapse because it is not easy to talk about. This is partly because it is difficult to imagine something we have never experienced. We lack even the vocabulary. It is also difficult to talk about because we are addressing not just the future of humanity in an abstract sense, but the future of our families and our friends. No generation has faced a challenge with the complexity, scale, and urgency of the one that we face.

       But there is hope. Without it this book would not exist. We think we can see both what needs to be done and how to do it.

       There are two policy cornerstones underlying the Plan B transformation. One is to restructure taxes by lowering income taxes and raising the tax on carbon emissions to include the indirect costs of burning fossil fuels, such as climate change and air pollution, in fossil fuel prices. The amount of tax we pay would not change.

       The second policy cornerstone is to redefine security for the twenty-first century. The threats to our future now are not armed aggression but rather climate change, population growth, water shortages, poverty, rising food prices, and failing states. Our challenge is not only to redefine security in conceptual terms, but also to reallocate fiscal priorities to shift resources toward achieving the Plan B goals. These include reforestation, soil conservation, fishery restoration, universal primary school education, and reproductive health care and family planning services for women everywhere.

       Although these goals are conceptually simple and easily understood, they will not be easily achieved. They will require an enormous effort from each of us. The vested interests of the fossil fuel and defense industries in maintaining the status quo are strong. But it is our future that is at stake. Yours and mine.

Lester R. Brown
October 2010



Down.

Sunday, 12 December 2010

fcuk fuct fcof (!)

or conjugations of subjugation ... amo amas amat ... BAH HUMBUG!
Up, Down, Appendices, Postscript.

Jodie Smith OxumJodie Smith OxumJodie Smith OxumSome screen grabs from an otherwise fluffy video around Seu Jorge & Almaz and somehow suposedly relating to Oxum. I found it on Kwesi Abbensett's blog and for a minute I hoped it might be his photography; but it didn't seem like his standard to be hangin' out in an affluent Rio neighbourhood.

Jodie Smith OxumJodie Smith OxumOxum embodies femininity (both beauty & vanity), fertility, fecundity, rivers, waterfalls; gold and the connection between money & love, hence she is the patron goddess of prostitutes. She carries a hand-mirror and a sort of whisk, or maybe it is a whip - I'll have to check that out - a fan they say? or a sword? The first one I saw didn't look like a fan or sword to me though (?).

Jodie SmithJodie SmithJodie SmithJodie SmithJodie SmithJodie SmithThe model is Jodie Smith. This blue video, Gestuelle or 'Body Language' as I make it out (unless it is also a slang for 'vampire'), is a bit disturbing; but her commentary on it is less so ... 'vagina naked' as she matter-of-factly says. Charming (she refers to herself as 'Miss Jodie') and delightful, and she keeps a blog too.

Leonard Cohen, As irmas da graça (mais ou menos)
As irmas da graça
Elas não partiram nem sumiram.
Elas estavam esperando por mim
Quando pensei que não podia andar mais.
E elas me trouxeram conforto
E mais tarde me trouxeram esta canção.
Eu desejo que você as encontre
Você que estavam viajando há tanto tempo.

Sim você que deve deixar tudo
Que não pode controlar.
Isso começa com sua familia
Mas logo chega até sua alma.
Então, eu estive onde você está parado
Eu acho que posso ver como você estancou:
Quando você não se sente santo
Sua solidão fala que você pecou.

Elas deitaram ao meu lado
Eu me confecei com elas.
E elas tocaram meus olhos
E eu toquei o orvalho dos suas bainhas.
Se sua vida é uma folha
Que as estações rejetam e condenam
Elas vão prendê-lo com amor
Que é gracioso e verde como um caule.

Quando eu saí elas dormiam
Eu desejo que você as encontre logo.
Não acenda as luzes
Você pode ler o endereço delas na lua.
E você não me fará ciúme
Se eu ouvir que elas adoçaram sua noite:
Nós não éramos namorados assim
E ainda que assim fosse estaria certo.
Nós não éramos namorados assim
E ainda que assim fosse estaria certo.
 Oh the sisters of mercy,
They are not departed or gone.
They were waiting for me
When I thought I just cannot go on.
And they brought me their comfort
And later they brought me this song.
Oh I hope you run into them,
You who've been travelling so long.

Yes you who must leave everything
You cannot control.
It begins with your family,
Soon it comes round to your soul.
But I've been where you're hanging,
I think I can see how you're pinned:
When you're not feeling holy,
Your loneliness tells you you've sinned.

They lay down beside me,
I made my confession to them.
They touched both my eyes
And I touched the dew on their hem.
If your life is a leaf
The seasons tear off and condemn;
They will bind you with love
That is graceful and green as a stem.

When I left they were sleeping,
I hope you run into them soon.
Don't turn on the lights,
You can read their address by the moon.
And you won't make me jealous
If I hear that they sweetened your night:
We weren't lovers like that
And besides it would still be all right,
We weren't lovers like that
And besides it would still be all right.

There is a small hole in this song of Cohen's which you can trip into if you are not careful. Be sure to study the phrase 'and besides' with attention.

OxumOxumOxum CarybéIemanjá CarybéOxum Flávia FerrariAlways the hand-mirror; sometimes a fan, sometimes a sword, sometimes nothing; oh well - obviously it is the mirror that is important. The Orixa in Carybé's 'Gradil Solar do Unhão' in Salvador carries a star and so is properly Iemanjá - I just wanted to make the mermaid connection. The pendant is by Flávia Ferrari.

COP16 CancunCOP16 CancunWho could resist Gable's so eloquent cartoon? Or Carmen Electra opening a Playboy Club right next-door to the UNFCCC? Or is it the UNFCUK UNFUCT UNFCOF? I can't remember? I presume these are the left-lib pinko creeps Don Cherry was ranting about this week? The ones on the Gravy Train? Is that it Don?

Once upon a time I had one of those Guatemalan shirts. Came to me from a couple'a hippies I met at a Renaissance Faire who spent their winters down there buying and their summers up in El Norte going around selling. Charter members of the Rainbow Gathering too and all. It was a good life I guess - I wonder where they are now?

COP16 CancunIsabelMost of what you see coming out of COP16/Cancun is associated with one NGO or another (properly ignoring the so-called conference itself): Greenpeace, WWF, Via Campesino ... whatever ... The photo of Isabel in her lovely blouse was the only one I saw with no affiliation - and that was the attraction. It was probably just a typo, an oversight - no one has space to waste on a news site with pictures of ... individuals.

Who are you 'with'? :-)Can we start a website for Non-Aligned Witness? Maybe we can make it into an NGO? Would that work? 'NAW' has a nice ring to it. Then we can get official wrist-bands too do you think? A-and government grants and donations? Buy a sailboat and lots of semi-automatic handguns and have some fun going around for a few years before the shit hits the fan?

Every photograph with a wrist in it also has a wrist-band in it - even our pouty underwater Greenpeace-ette with the lip-ring. It's not about climate at all - it must be about security.

Bill MaherHere, let's stop thinking about Cancun and the milquetoast diplomat maggots for a minute, and have a laugh at least with Bill Maher as he lets it go on climate change deniers, asking What the fuck is WRONG with you people!?

Stephen SchneiderThat's Bill with Karrine Steffans & Halle Berry. He looks happy. No surprise there - I would be happy too in that position, (Karrine has a certain reputation, as does Halle for that matter). Stephen Schneider with Terry Root seems happy too - look at the picture - his hair is standing right up on end!

Here's Bill & Stephen talking about hurricane Katrina - and making sense. One more, Bill on Colony Collapse Disorder ...
"It's Nature's way of saying - Can you hear me now?"

Jeering Jackanapes:
Don Cherry's ApocalypseDon CherryRob FordGuy Saint-JacquesJohn BairdJohn BairdJohn BairdIf you watch Don Cherry's rant critically, it is revealing - and not so very incendiary as the media have mostly made it out to be. Hurt feelings is what I see, and the angry flip-side. It looks like a test to me - if you rise to this bait and wring your hands & whinge then you have not got your eye on the ball and we know you.

Dog metaphors abound when referring to Don Cherry & John Baird: pit-bull, junk-yard dog, and so on. I often go to Day Life looking for images to grab - interesting that John Baird was in Cancun for several days before a single niggardly pic of him showed up there. Not such a big dog after all then? Who cares? We already know he has nothing useful to say.

Jeering Jackanapes & Fascist Muscle & Tyrants (petty & otherwise):
CaledoniaStephen Harper & Julian FantinoStephen Harper & Julian FantinoStephen HarperIan ScottIan ScottBill BlairBill BlairJulian FantinoDon mentions Julian Fantino as well: "What you see is what you get." Very aptly put. You could ask the citizens in Caledonia what they saw of him when he was Commissioner of the OPP. I guess it would be bigotry to mention other Italian/Canadian cops would it? Giuliano Zaccardelli? Our Julian Fantino was apparently born as Giuliano too.

Happily there is the odd nutbar out there in the night murmuring (screaming, slavering) about the rise of capital-letter 'F' Fascism in k-k-Canada. Not so crazy at all in my book to be joining up the dots: Harper's so-called 'law and order' package, Robert Dziekanski's killers still in limbo, the brutal G20 police action in Toronto, Stacy Bond in Ottawa, Harper's subsequent successful backing of Julian Fantino, rumours of Fantino as the next Minister of Public Safety ... "You don't need a weather man to know which way the wind blows."

There is an inevitability to police brutality once you let it out of the bag. It becomes a vicious self-reinforcing cycle: rogue police are not brought to justice, the public loses confidence, the police are more-and-more immune & fearful & isolated.

Winter AloneA key player, essential even, is the tractable and obedient bureaucrat: people like Ian Scott, Director of the Special Investigations Unit; Guy Saint-Jacques, Deputy Head of Mission at the Canadian Embassy in Washington and Canada's Lead Negotiator at COP16 in Cancun; and of course their numerous minions & underlings, all hoping to say and do what they are told for a cottage in Muskoka overlooking the lake at the end of the day, or ... at least a quick blow-job in Cancun ... or a plum diplomatic post, say, Ambassador to Ireland for our faithful servant Loyola Hearn, or or ... a Senate appointment AND a cottage in Muskoka AND a couple'a Thai or Brasilian nubiles to play house with.

TPS Toronto Police ServiceIsn't it strange that when the public outcry does not abate, when the Chief of Police is contradicted by very credible citizens who are ready to go to the wall and is forced to apologize; then suddenly-and-all-at-once the Toronto Police Service (TPS) can identify 14 of the thugs who beat up Adam Nobody? Explaining all the while that it was impossible to determine these names previously; 'new evidence' y'unnerstan.

BOPE Batalhão de Operações Policiais EspeciaisIs it strange that Julian Assange challenges global diplomatic hypocrisy and is then charged with rape, has his service providers drop him, has his on-line cash inputs cut off, has his bank account summarily closed, can't get bail in an English court for what looks more-and-more like a trumped-up rape charge in Sweden?

Anna ArdinAnna ArdinAnna ArdinSofia WilénSofia WilénClaes BergstromWho are these women? If it is true that he was only there for a few days, and managed some kind of intimacy with both of them, then is it not possible that this was a transaction gone awry? Or a honey trap? Or one kink too many? Is it really rape if you just don't want to wear a condom? The language I see is so ambiguous. Was it two on one? Was it Everyman's most poignant fantasy? Is that it? Was envy the icing on the cake for all those hyper-repressed anal-retentive Republicans?

Karin RosanderMarianne NyMarianne NyMarianne NyEva FinnéMaria Häljebo KjellstrandThe accusers are Anna Ardin & Sofia Wilén; and their lawyer, Claes Bergstrom. The first prosecutor, Maria Häljebo Kjellstrand, says arrest him; the second, Eva Finné, says no; the third, who is also the Director, Marianne Ny, says arrest him again; and the spokeswoman, Karin Rosander, says what she's told to say.

And yeah, the truth might come out in a trial; but if I were Assange I would be very worried about being in any jail anywhere - I would be afraid for my life - and that is exactly where he is at the moment. On the other hand I don't think even the Americans are stupid enough to outright kill him. They would be wise to have him kept out of the general prison population though - accidents do happen.

And isn't it strange that when Anonymous hackers begin to avenge the treatment of Julian Assange, going after big financial institutions, at least one of them is arrested the very next day? They never could identify who stole the CRU emails for some reason though. Isn't that strange too?

Richard PeckIs it strange that we have not heard one peep out of Richard Peck the 'Special Prosecutor' in BC charged with determining whether or not to finally charge the four RCMP thugs who killed Richard Dziekanski?

Strange world is it? Do you think it is a strange world gentle reader?

UNFCCCSo we should be surprised that the fat freeloader maggots in the UNFCCC have collected their fat salaries for 20 years and their 'Double Down' double-fat perks and have nothing whatsoever to show for it? And if you don't like the word 'whatsoever' in that sentence then tell me how many tons of CO2 emissions were avoided with the Kyoto treaty? Consider the enormous haemorrhage of cash and air travel and buildings these people and their fellow-travellers represent. T-tell me how many tons of CO2 emissions they contributed to the problem? (And that is not even mentioning the total misdirection of energies - the double jeopardy of going at it completely wrong-headed.) Does it balance?

I don't know the CO2 numbers, but I am now sure that we would be better off without the UN & UNFCCC; and focussing instead on the odd bright spot of possibility that does show up on the scene from time-to-time: our Arnie in California, rumours of carbon tax in Quebec & BC, pinko left-wing Councillors in Toronto ... right down to the clear necessity to stop using flush toilets and begin composting & associated public gardens in city parks (!)

These days everybody is going around this town saying "Merry Christmas," - even the TTC streetcar drivers! - and sure, I am getting into the spirit too: eggnog, Messiah, wrapping up presents for the grandchildren ... but I choke on 'Merry Christmas'. All I can get out is, TO ALL A BAH HUMBUG! and sometimes, quoting young Simon from many years ago, "FUCK YOU VERY MUCH!"

What it is is Rule #1 gone berserker. Well, Rule #1 be damned! And the corollary, 'Don't pull the tiger by his tail,' be damned as well. The best men I have known in my life have not operated out of this selfish bullshit justification. I do not operate out of it neither.

Sometimes yeah, sure. Did I say I was a saint? But not as a precept, not as a principle, secret or otherwise, not even as a (nudge nudge wink wink) rule-of-thumb!

Which side are you on? :-)What about you gen'l reed'r? (With a slight slur y'unnerstan' - there is eggnog involved.)

Be well.

Postscript:

How can Maritimers be so stupid? It's like Charlie Brown and Lucy with the football. They just don't learn. So here's to honour Barb Sweet, humble despatch writer at The Telegram in St. John's, who gets it right, twice: Past mistakes, brighter future?, and From pristine to polluted.

And here's our Gwynne Dyer (well before the end of the silly fiasco) on Cancun: Climate clock keeps ticking away. He's too soft on them by half. He says, "People in the rich countries don’t even understand that history, so they are still a long way from accepting that deal. It won’t happen at Cancun, and it may be years before it does. Maybe too many years.

Too many years indeed. The Globe and Mail (and such-like prepaid nincompoops) are running headlines like, "Global accord on climate change hailed as breakthrough," and calling it "a major step forward." Nonsense! Poppycock! Balderdash! FUCKING BULLSHIT! ... Oh well. ... The world seems to run on lies, dissembling, pretence, pretend pretentiousness, whatever.

No bigots here. :-)Definitely need another laugh this week; here's something I found: A Public Service Announcement not approved by AJWS from AJWS - American Jewish World Service, with the word 'American' in the name and still with a recommendation from this blog.

Marina SilvaAdriana Mugnatto-HamuAh, here we go, some reports directly from Cancun by Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu (the link is to the last report, there are several earlier ones, I have to trust that you can navigate through the mess if you want to - the nerds would have you believe that blogging is about communication which is nonsense since vanishingly little communication takes place, whatever ...). She does say at one point, "A whole lot of nothing is happening in Cancun," - got that right. A-and then the photograph with Marina Silva (left to right: Ronan Dantec, Marina, Cathy Oke, Adriana, and Elizabeth May) ... always good to see Marina. Elizabeth May needs to get her teeth done, oh well.

Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu is the Green Party of k-k-Canada's 'Shadow Cabinet Critic on Climate Change' - she should know her stuff, indeed, I happen to know that she does know her stuff. Nonetheless her (I assume final) post from Cancun indulges saccharine bromides that might make even the prepaid pundits at the Globe & NYT wince: "Something truly magical is happening in Cancun. ... it give [sic] me profound hope." I guess you have to say things like that if you have young children. Is that it? But ...

'PROFOUND HOPE'? Doh!? BAH HUMBUG!

Appendices:
1. Past mistakes, brighter future?, Barb Sweet, November 27th 2010.
2. From pristine to polluted, Barb Sweet, November 29th 2010.
3. Climate clock keeps ticking away, Gwynne Dyer, December 6 2010.


Past mistakes, brighter future?, Barb Sweet, November 27th 2010.

A new wave of prosperity is welcome in Long Harbour, but some fear it comes at too great a price

In nearly every second driveway, there’s a new pickup truck. Dump trucks and security vehicles rumble along Long Harbour Road as the community trundles towards new prosperity.

The scars of old prosperity remain — the most prominent being the five-million-tonne slag pile that runs along one side of the harbour, the remains of the old ERCO phosphorus plant that some believe left a bigger legacy than lost jobs.

On a ride through town, fisherman Andy Murphy gives a cancer tour, pointing out homes where, he says, residents have died from or survived the dreaded disease. He figures there’s 20 people in the town currently grappling with it, a count he believes is far too high in a place with fewer than 300 people.

Many of the homes he points out are across the harbour from the slag pile.

The slag pile has nothing to do with nickel mining company Vale, other than it had to suspend a contract to beautify the site when workers were sickened after uncovering contaminants.

But Murphy, who worked at ERCO for 14 years, is worried what the town might be facing once Vale’s nickel processing plant swings into operation in 2013, handling ore from the Voisey’s Bay mine in Labrador.

Murphy has been fighting the use of Sandy Pond — a pristine lake high in the hills beyond the slag pile — as a dumpsite for mine tailings.

In his wallet, the passionate trouter carries an apology letter from Environment Minister Charlene Johnson sent to him after Vale security kicked him off another pond that is not, in fact, part of Vale’s property.

Private property signs and security gates protect the former Crown land that is now Vale property. As The Telegram took photographs of the community on a November day, a security officer pulled up on the public Long Harbour Road and demanded to know what was being photographed and why. Security measures, including videotaping, have been stepped up on the Long Harbour property due to the Voisey’s Bay mine strike, which has lasted more than a year. Discounting an environmental assessment’s conclusion that Sandy Pond has few fish, Murphy says the pond boasts the best fishing in Newfoundland — thousands of four- and five-pound trout that feed on purple smelt.

“And to say they can take those fish and move them somewhere else is something like taking human beings and putting them on Mars,” Murphy says.

The Vale plan is to deposit sulphur residue from the processing facility beneath the surface of Sandy Pond to prevent it from turning into sulphuric acid.

“A few years back, we had (tropical storm) Chantal. This year we had Igor. What kind of dams are they going to construct to stop overflow?” he asks.

“It’s just a cheap way for Vale.”

Murphy is even more frightened about what might happen when treated wastewater from the hydromet processing facility is discharged in Placentia Bay.

“It’s going to be a disaster. … They say it’s going to be water fit to drink. I’d like to see someone drink it.”

He remembers ERCO’s raw effluent spill into Placentia Bay in the 1960s. One of 16 children, he’s fished the bay since he was six or seven years old, helping out on his father’s longliner with several of his 12 brothers.

“How bad it was before — the dead fish were running ashore and the cats and rats were eating the fish and the cats and rats were dying,” he recalls.

“We’d go out on the boat and we’d see the flocks of gulls — hundreds of gulls perched on the rocks and they’d jump up and go to wing and all of a sudden it was like somebody took them out with a shot gun or something. They’d drop in the water, stone dead.”

He said his father, George, would take divers out onto the harbour and the fish were “stacked six and eight feet high on the bottom — dead, rotten.”

The plant closed for awhile after the effluent spill into the bay. That got fixed, but there were also concerns about air quality and coke dust. According to the Newfoundland and Labrador Heritage website, deformed moose and rabbits were found near the plant. Snowshoe hares were dissected and tested, and high levels of fluoride were found in their bones. Some of the slag was given to homeowners to use as a base for basement floors. However, since the slag contained uranium and thorium, which was found to emit radon gas — a carcinogen — ERCO was ordered to pay to have the material removed.

The plant closed in 1989, decimating a town that once had a population of several hundred.

Murphy is considered to be a bit of an oddball by some in Long Harbour now for his views about Vale and his environmental concerns.

“Most people just look at jobs. They don’t care,” he acknowledges.

“There are a few, but I can count them on their thumbs and big toes those who are going to speak up and say anything.

“There are a lot of people who don’t want (Sandy Pond) to go ahead, but most people are looking at it saying ‘There’s jobs, there’s jobs …’”

Despite his fears, Murphy would never pick up and leave. He resettled from a nearby island as a child to Mount Arlington Heights, a pretty coastal section of town, and then built a new home in Long Harbour proper when he got married.

“I’ve got no other choice,” he says.

“Where the hell am I going? I’m nearly 60 years old now. That’s it.”

•••

On a rainy November day, Brenda Piercey is at her kitchen island, making Christmas cakes for her family. Prior to Vale’s choice of Long Harbour for the hydromet plant, the town was a place for seniors, she says. The community lost its school years ago.

She found work helping to set up mini-homes in a new subdivision in the town last winter, and has been applying for janitor work at the Vale camp, a worker motel now under construction, or at any of the Vale facilities.

“Anyone who is able to work here wants work,” she says.

“But I don’t want work to come here to the harbour only to kill us all off — what’s the point of the work, eh? I’m hoping someone is after smartening up since ERCO.”

But she says most people have to put their trust in Vale and the provincial and federal governments that the hydromet plant will be drastically different. After ERCO closed, people either moved away or, if they were lucky enough, got on at the Come By Chance oil refinery, a 40-minute drive away. Her husband works as a day hauler truckdriver back and forth to St. John’s, an hour away.

But since Vale came in, the town is hustle and bustle again, the main road too busy to walk on. Long Harbour has a fitness centre and a new fire department. A new Vale training centre under construction will eventually be turned over to the town for use as a community centre.

Piercey doesn’t struggle to wonder what her father, Tobias, would think of it all. He died eight years ago at age 82.

ERCO set up in Long Harbour in the late 1960s, lured by millions in subsidies from the Smallwood government.

Before landing a job at the plant, Tobias Murphy, a carpenter, travelled to St. John’s, Labrador and any other place he could get work. Sometimes he was gone for months, leaving his wife Mary to keep things going at home, Piercey recalls.

“There was 13 of us. He didn’t want any dust under his feet,” she says. “That was only a few crumbs here and there to get, which was not what he wanted.

“Like he said, there is good stuff and bad stuff you can say about it. The bottom line is he was home and making good money. Dad would say the same thing now. We don’t know what’s going to come out of (the nickel processing operations). We don’t know if anybody knows. We are hoping they are going to look after us.”

Her father, she says, would have no regrets, despite the environmental problems.

“It changed our life as kids when ERCO came over. Some people don’t see that part of it (now, with Vale). … Whenever industry goes up there is something destroyed,” Piercey says.

“My dad would have gone over there anyway. ... He was over there every day for 25 years. He done whatever work he could do to put food on the table.”

Long Harbour Mayor Gary Keating is watching his toddler grandson on a day off from labour relations with Pennecon. He insists that 90 per cent of the town is in support of the Vale project. Employment is increasing slowly but steadily and he hopes eventually nearly everyone will be working. He recently announced $25 million in expenditures, including the town’s own spending, plus construction of the motel, camp, training centre and plans for a restaurant and gas pumps, another new subdivision, and the slag pile landscaping.

Eight new homes have been built in the past year, the like of which hasn’t been seen in 20 years, says Keating, who also worked at ERCO as well as the Bull Arm offshore oil platform fabrication facility, in Fort McMurray and the Northwest Territories. With employment at the nickel processing facility expected to create 450 jobs, along with spinoffs, Keating is hoping the town’s population will grow by another 100-150.

As for environmental concerns Keating remarks, “What happens in the future? If we could hold a crystal ball we’d know exactly what to do. But at the end of the day, any industry of that nature requires disposing of residue.

“We had a industry here 20 years ago — Albright and Wilson (also known as ERCO) — and the emissions going out in the atmosphere. Something like that we would never support again.”

He says the federal and provincial governments will safeguard the environment.

“That’s their job. We, the town, don’t have the expertise,” he says.


From pristine to polluted, Barb Sweet, November 29th 2010.

How a region’s hunger for prosperity led to a legacy of contamination

Fergie MacKay was not long into his teaching career in Pictou County, N.S., in the late 1960s and times were hard. There was a downturn at the rail car and steel plant running the length of his hometown. Trenton proudly markets itself as the place of the first pouring of steel in British North America and it is one of the county’s five close-knit towns with its surrounding rural communities and villages. When times were good, thousands of men poured in and out of the plant’s gates during shift changes.

Thursday was payday and workers would flood the shopping district of New Glasgow, stocking up on canned goods and sale items for the inevitable layoffs between rail car orders and cyclical busts in the worldwide rail transportation sector.

So when the announcement was made that a pulp and paper giant was to open Scott Maritimes in 1967 on nearby Abercrombie Point, it spelled economic relief for the whole county. The coal mines were dying and the county was years away from luring a Michelin Tire plant.

“We were starving economically,” recalls MacKay, a Trenton councillor and retired rural high school teacher. “The pulp mill was seen as a godsend.”

Pulp and paper was a lucrative industry with no end in sight then — a good-paying job at the mill set a family up for life. And it also brought jobs in the woods and in trucking. But along with the pulp mill came Boat Harbour, a now infamous tidal lagoon where 25 million gallons of wastewater a day from the bleach kraft pulp mill was to go before being released into the Northumberland Strait. The provincial government was to own and operate Boat Harbour for 25 years, eventually handing operation over to the pulp mill.

Not every industrial story ends in a debacle the magnitude of Boat Harbour. But the use of a natural body of water for industrial waste — pulp, mining or otherwise — is something MacKay and another activist, Bob Christie, warn against.

“This was a cheap way of doing it. Once that happens, it’s gone forever,” MacKay says. “People got blinded by saying how much this thing was going to employ.”

In 1967, residents were assured the wastewater from Boat Harbour would be fit to drink, swim and fish in.

The Pictou Landing Mi’kmaq reserve — which borders the lagoon — was lured into supporting the plan by taking band officials to New Brunswick to a supposed treatment plant where an official took a drink of water, says activist, author and former federal civil servant Daniel Paul, who later helped the band take on Indian Affairs.

The facility wasn’t treating industrial waste, he says.

•••

When Boat Harbour came onstream, not only was the tidal lagoon polluted with a toxic cocktail of dioxins, furans, chloride, mercury and other heavy metals, but Lighthouse Beach in the reserve was ruined.

“It was a mile of sand. I remember going, as a kid, to Lighthouse Beach. It was just the most gorgeous beach in the world,” MacKay remembers.

For decades, coffee-coloured water and foam washed up on beaches along a stretch of the northeast coast, which boasts the warmest waters north of the Carolinas. In the early 1970s, MacKay and some of the prominent members of the county formed the Northumberland Strait Pollution Control Committee.

“Initially, the effluent, it just came roaring out of this four-foot pipe (from the mill to Boat Harbour). It just went all through the woods and down through,” MacKay says.

The effluent now filters through settling ponds and out into the Strait.

“To clean up Boat Harbour would probably take all the money in Ottawa,” he says.

•••

Bob Christie’s home — a family property dating to 1832 — is one kilometre from Boat Harbour. In the early 1970s, Christie worked as an engineer at Canso Chemicals, a chemical manufacturer for the pulp mill. He, too, remembers the beauty of Lighthouse Beach, which on a summer day would attract 150 people. But effluent from Boat Harbour caused contaminated foam five- to six-feet high to roll ashore.

Beginning in the 1980s, Christie was a key figure in Citizens Against Pollution, which took up the fight against the toxic lagoon. But in the late 1960s and early 1970s, says Christie, with the rail car plant down to 800 men from a peak of 2,000, county residents were encouraged to keep quiet about the mill. The effluent mess and its foul odour, after all, was the smell of money.

And faced with feeding their kids on unemployment or welfare and getting a good-paying job, people worried about the environment later, he says. The times were different — there was no environmental assessments — and the Nova Scotia government he said, was laughed at by the industry for taking responsibility for the effluent, the costliest part of running the mill, as well as supplying free water from a river.

He recalls a conversation with a retired mill manager who commented, “Bob, how godawful stupid that government was.”

•••

In the early years, Christie says, the effluent flowed right into the Northumberland Strait. Years later, after the outcry, giant aerators and settling ponds were installed. But even that did not come easy.

Christie recalls meeting with two cabinet minsters and other officials mulling over borrowing aerators from New Brunswick. One minister asked if the departments could come up with the money. According to Christie, the other looked him in the face and said, “If I thought I could get three votes from it I would.”

“How crass. They really didn’t give a damn,” Christie says now.

“The province was stupid when it came to effluent. It is responsible for the legacy of the pollution of Boat Harbour.”

Christie, who first became involved because of the effects of pollution on fish habitat, believes the Boat Harbour of today is far different and less toxic than its early days when he would leave the site retching. But he remains adamant that no body of water should be offered up as a settling pond.

“Not any sane person today would use a natural unspoiled habitat and turn it into toxic pit,” he says.

“Because it’s cheap, it’s easy. Because they don’t give a damn and want to keep every cent in their pocket they can. The bottom line is the dollar — nothing else.”

He says he was called on to give expert advice for a panel reviewing metal mining effluent regulations in the early 1990s — a forerunner of since-updated regulations which will govern operations in Long Harbour, Placentia Bay. He describes the process as 100 different provincial and industry interests arguing 12-14 hours a day.

“At the end of the day, what came out was the lowest common denominator everyone would be happy with,” Christie says.

“Are the regulations working? Yeah, if your want lowest denominator.”

Christie says he believes a proper mine tailings pond should be lined.

“No mining company wants to do that. It would chew up a third to half of the profit. The legacy is who bears that cost?”

The Mi’kmaq reserve eventually settled for $35 million, but is still fighting over how Boat Harbour is to be cleaned up. It has filed a lawsuit, seeking a court order forcing the province to relocate the facility, estimated at $90 million. Government efforts are underway to clean up Lighthouse Beach.

Northern Pulp, the latest of several owners of the mill, says it cut the treatment area by more than 80 per cent as of July due to new regulations.

•••

The ongoing boom and bust of the Trenton car works again set the Nova Scotia county scrambling for another major employer in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

One of those industries was a resurrection of coal mining. In 1992, 26 miners lost their lives in the Westray mine methane explosion, which Justice Peter Richard, head of an inquiry into the disaster called a “story of incompetence, of mismanagement and of bureaucratic bungling.”

The rail car plant closed up for good in 2006. All hope of another resurrection ended for many in the town when the landmark ivy-covered brick office — which always stood out from the plant — was razed.

Like Long Harbour, the county is now pinning its hopes on an industry in town. Daewoo is a wind turbine manufacturing plant that will occupy the former rail care plant buildings.

Ken Kavanagh, a retired teacher from Bell Island, a Council of Canadians spokesman and chairman of the Sandy Pond Alliance opposing use of a 38-hectare lake for mine tailings in Long Harbour, says while the industries and times are different, there is a similarity with Boat Harbour — the economic pressure placed on residents to compromise the environment for jobs.

After 40 years, he wonders if the environmental regime is more sound today.

“It’s stacked against the community and ordinary citizens,” he says.

He said the government is allowing, through its regulations and acceptance of environmental assessments, the act of taking a beautiful, pristine pond and destroying it with toxic waste.

“Things haven’t changed a great deal,” Kavanagh says.


Climate clock keeps ticking away, Gwynne Dyer, December 6 2010.

[aka No climate progress at Cancun]

No consensus on cutting emissions — and runaway climate change may happen in 20 years

The United Nations climate summit in Cancun, Mexico is nearing its end, and while the ending will not be as rancorous as last year’s train-wreck in Copenhagen, there will be no global deal on cutting greenhouse gas emissions this year either. However, there is some hope for the longer run.

Mohamed Nasheed is president of the Maldives, a group of low-lying islands in the Indian Ocean that will be among the first to vanish as the sea-level rises in a warming world. That’s why he is so outspoken in challenging the current negotiating position of the developing countries.

“When I started hearing about this climate change issue, I started hearing developing countries say. ‘We have a right to emit carbon because we have to develop,’ ” he told the BBC recently. “It is true, we need to develop; but equating development to carbon emissions I thought was quite silly.”

That is heresy, for the standard position of the group of developing countries (G77) is that since the rich countries caused the problem, they must make the emissions cuts that would stop it. And they really did cause the problem: It was 200 years of burning fossil fuels that made them rich, and they are responsible for 80 per cent of the greenhouse gases of human origin that are now in the atmosphere.

But if only the rich countries cut their emissions, while the rapidly developing countries (which have three times as many people) let their emissions grow at the current rate, the planet will probably topple into runaway warming by mid-century.

The numbers are brutally simple. Since the Industrial Revolution began around 1800, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen to 390 parts per million from 280 ppm. The point of no return is 450 ppm. After some delay, that will raise the average global temperature by two degrees Celsius (3.5 degrees Fahrenheit).

We only have 60 ppm to go, and the newly industrializing countries are growing so fast that we are collectively adding between 2 and 3 ppm per year. At that rate, we’ll reach the point of no return in 20 to 30 years.

What happens then is that the warming we have already caused triggers natural processes, like the melting of the permafrost and the warming of the oceans, that dump even more carbon dioxide into the air, causing even faster warming. Even if we later cut our own emissions to zero, the permafrost will go on melting, the oceans will continue to warm — and we may be into runaway warming.

Almost every government on Earth has formally committed to holding the warming below two degrees C. They have not, however, committed to any process that will actually achieve that goal — which is why they keep coming back to the conference table despite all the past failures.

Why don’t all the governments act? Because the developing countries refuse to accept limits on their emissions for fear they wouldn’t be able to go on growing their economies. They also resent the fact the past emissions of the rich countries have brought us all so close to 450 ppm. Whereas the rich countries ignore the history and demand similar cuts from all countries, rich and poor.

Mohamed Nasheed is abandoning the old common front of all developing countries because it may serve the short-term interest of the rapidly industrializing countries in the G77, but it isn’t in the interest of poorer, slower-growing countries like the Maldives at all.

At least 30 countries in the G77 privately share Nasheed’s view; the impending split was already visible even at last year’s Copenhagen conference. Moreover, he argues, the current negotiating position of the G77 is silly even for the bigger, richer members of the group.

“There is new technology,” Nasheed argues. “Fossil fuel is obsolete, it’s yesterday’s technology; so we [aim to] come up with a development strategy that’s low carbon.” If China, India, Brazil and the other big, fast-developing countries believed that they could go on growing their economies without growing their emissions, he says, then they’d also be willing to sign up to binding limits on emissions.

“They have to rapidly increase their investments in renewable energy,” he says, “and I think they are doing that. Once they’ve done it, they’re going to say, ‘Right, we need a legally binding agreement.’” It’s fast becoming true: China is already the world’s largest exporter of solar panels, and India is the leading exporter of wind turbines. But there is one remaining problem.

Wind turbines, solar panels and the like tend to be more expensive than cheap and dirty coal-fired power stations. If the developing countries choose the more expensive option, who pays the difference? The old rich countries that landed them in this dilemma, of course.

People in the rich countries don’t even understand that history, so they are still a long way from accepting that deal. It won’t happen at Cancun, and it may be years before it does. Maybe too many years.

The conference ends Friday.