Yangbin Zhou1†, Yitao Zhou1†, Huijie Yang2, Xiaoyan Wang2, Xiping Zhang2 and Ganying Huang1,2*
1School of Nursing, Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou, China
2Department of Emergency, Afliated Hangzhou First People’s Hospital, School of Medicine, Westlake University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
Edited by
Linlin Zhang, Capital Medical University, China
Reviewed by
Abhi Pandhi, University of Tennessee Health Science Center (UTHSC), United States
Dan-Victor Giurgiutiu, Augusta University, United States
*Correspondence
Ganying Huang, ganying3304@163.com
†These authors have contributed equally to this work
Received 25 January 2025
Accepted 30 April 2025
Published 15 May 2025
Citation
Zhou Y, Zhou Y, Yang H, Wang X, Zhang X and Huang G (2025) Predictive role of a combined model for futile recanalization in acute ischemic stroke: a retrospective cohort study. Front. Neurol. 16:1566842. doi: 10.3389/fneur.2025.1566842
Objective: There is a lack of data regarding patients with acute ischemic stroke caused by large vessel occlusions (LVOs) undergoing mechanical thrombectomy (MT) and their predictors of futile recanalization (FR). We sought to investigate the predictors of FR in patients with AIS-LVO undergoing mechanical thrombectomy.
Method: A retrospective analysis was conducted on 229 acute AIS patients who received MT, after eliminating the 31 patients not meet the requirements. The patients were categorized into the FR group and the useful recanalization (UR) group. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to explore the factors that influence FR after mechanical thrombectomy. ROC curve was used to plot the ability to predict FR after MT, and then the combined model was constructed and evaluate the predictive ability of this model to FR.
Results: 198 patients who achieved successful recanalization were included in the analysis, of whom 124 experienced UR and 74 experienced FR. Patients with FR had higher Baseline NIHSS; they were more frequently on hypertension history and had longer door-to-puncture time (DPT) and door-to-recanalization time (DRT). Multivariable regression analysis showed that the hypertension history, Admission NIHSS, Admission DBP, Admission blood glucose, ischemic core, and DPT were associated with an increased probability of FR. The combined model was better than the models alone in predicting the risk of FR.
Conclusion: Admission blood pressure, admission NIHSS scores, admission DBP, ischemic core and DPT are independent risk factors for FR after MT in patients with AIS, and the combined model established by them has high predictive efficacy for FR risk after MT.
Keywords
futile recanalization; acute ischemic stroke; ROC curve; mechanical thrombectomy; AIS-LVO
Introduction
As the second-leading cause of death disease, Stroke is a widespread neurological condition and the primary cause of disability worldwide (1). Also, it resulted in approximately 6 million annual fatalities. Ischemic stroke accounts for 71% of all strokes worldwide and 81.9% in China. The proportion of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) caused by large vessel occlusions (LVOs) in Chia was 20% (2). Acute ischemic stroke (AIS) is a sudden neurologic dysfunction caused by focal brain ischemia which is accompanied by imaging evidence of acute infarction (3). AIS occur caused by focal cerebral hypoperfusion, particularly from embolism and atherosclerotic disease. At present, the main effective treatment method for early reperfusion in acute ischemic stroke is intravenous rt-PA thrombolysis (4–6). For AIS-LVOs, the vascular revascularization rate of intravenous thrombolysis is low (13% ~ 18%) and the therapeutic effect is not good (7). The successful recanalization rate of MT has achieved 41–88%, which was much higher than that yielded by traditional therapies, including intravenous thrombolysis (8). Partial randomized clinical trials (RCTs) (9–14) have proven benefits on functional outcomes of endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) compared with intravenous thrombolysis. The functional outcomes of AIS patients with proximal anterior circulation LVO were improved by MT, particularly in those with good collateral circulation (6, 15). Preceding randomized controlled trials (10–12, 14, 16, 17) have consistently demonstrated that, among patients receiving standard care, MT markedly enhances successful reperfusion.
The modified Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction (mTICI) score can evaluate the degree of recanalization, which is considered a powerful predictor of good functional prognosis (18, 19). However, FR are not always associated with successful or complete reperfusion. Previous studies have revealed that more than 50% of patients suffer from futile recanalization (FR), which is defined as an adverse functional outcome at 90 days despite successful recanalization (mTICI = 2b-3) (18, 20). FR was linked to age, admission NIHSS, comorbidities, Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS), as well as time from symptom onset to recanalization (21, 22). Furthermore, studies have demonstrated that a high mRS score prior to stroke onset, coexisting dyslipidemia, and atrial fibrillation were identified as predictors of FR (23).
Therefore, it is of paramount importance to better understand the therapeutic effect of patients after MT and determine the factors that may help predict the occurrence of FR in patients. Predictive models for the occurrence of FR following MT surgery in patients are relatively scarce. Such models are necessary to accurately convey potential risks and benefits to the patients themselves or the proxies, and facilitate patient-oriented informed decision-making. The advent of reliable prediction models is capable of adapting to the continuously escalating healthcare demands and costs in China.
We conducted an observational retrospective study aiming to explore the predictors of futile recanalization in patients with LVO undergoing MT. Therefore, this study aims to utilize the National Stroke Center Construction Management Information System (NSCCMI) registry to clarify the predictive ability of admission blood pressure, baseline NIHSS scores, admission DBP, ischemic core and DPT for the risk of FR after MT in patients with AIS.
Methods
Study design and participants
The cohort was comprised of patients enrolled in the NSCCMI registry (National Stroke Center Construction Management Information System), a cohort study registering AIS patients in China which includes a hospital-based follow-up study. We enrolled 229 AIS-LVO patients from Hangzhou First People’s Hospital who were treated with mechanical thrombectomy between March 2022 and February 2024. The sample size met the principle of 10 Events Per Variable (EPV) (24). Inclusion criteria were 198 patients who achieved successful recanalization were included in the analysis, of whom 124 (62.63%) experienced UR and 74 (37.37%) experienced FR. The sample size met the principle of 10 Events Per Variable (EPV). All participating subcenters were obligated to recruit consecutive patients, and all patients or their legal representatives supplied informed consent. All patients used computed tomography and/or magnetic resonance imaging to diagnose AIS. According to TOAST criteria (25), AIS can be divided into four subtypes: (1) large-artery atherosclerosis (LAA), (2) cardioembolism (CE), (3) small-artery occlusion, (SAO), (4) stroke of other determined etiology, and (5) stroke of undetermined etiology (25). Categories 4 to 5 were defined as “other causes” in this study. This study included patients with subtypes according to TOAST criteria. All patients were followed for 3 months after AIS onset.
The present study enrolled patients with AIS-LVO undergoing MT between March 2022 and February 2024. Patients met the following inclusion criteria: (1) Age 18–90 years; (2) meet the diagnostic criteria for AIS (26); (3) patients treated with MT; (4) mTICI of 2b-3 after MT (27); (5) without rheumatoid immune disorders, severe hepatic or renal disorders, hematological disorders, or malignant tumors; (6) without any systemic infections that occurred at the time of specimen collection or 2 weeks before stroke onset; (7) finish 90-day follow-up.
MT was selected for patients meeting the following criteria: (1) confirmed AIS, and bleeding or other pathological brain diseases ruled out by CT; (2) LVO confirmed by CTA or digital subtraction angiography; (3) MT treatment can be initiated between 6 and 16 h of stroke onset (28); (4) obtaining informed consent from family members. Exclusion criteria: (1) confirmed intracranial hemorrhage or intracranial tumor on admission; (2) inability to take care of oneself; (3) previous psychiatric disorders that would interfere with neurologic evaluation; (4) Other serious, advanced, or terminal illness (investigator judgment) or life expectancy is less than 6 months; (5) Any other condition that, in the investigator’s judgment, precludes an endovascular procedure or poses a considerable risk to the subject in the event that an endovascular procedure is performed; (6) incomplete baseline data.
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