如果你不做,機會是零。做的話,即使千萬分之ㄧ也是機會 / 愛要耐心等待仔細尋找感覺很重要 / 停損是一種美德,"貪"跟"貧"只差一劃而已 / 如果你接受不到,那你應該不要開始,而不是在開始了之後,才去覺得辛苦,不開心,而妄想去改變事情。/ 你不會作期貨的時候,你就想想撲克牌要怎麼打,期貨就是那樣作。/ 常常有投資人會問 現在適不適合買進 其實真正要問的是 適合買進就真的可以買進了嗎 不要期望得到別人的答案 因為別人的風險不是你能夠所承擔的 也不是一買進後馬上就會飆漲 你把你自己的帳戶損益 交給別人”建議”是很不切實際的 更何況當您得知適合買進的時候 可能只是在幫人抬轎 交易要對自己負責 因為買進也是有風險的
nuffnang
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
Topglove 2010 Q4 业绩报告重点
2010 Q4 gross profit margin = 6.5% (drop 54%)
下季 gross profit margin 应该会更少。
Balance sheet 目前接近 0 负债
total cash 大于 total liability
马币走强,接下来 gross profit margin 和eps 会越来越少,暂时不看好。
Supermx
2010 Q1 gross profit margin = 21.6%
2010 Q2 gross profit margin = 17.8%
2010 Q3 gross profit margin = ????% (I estimate 8.1%)
Harta
2009 Q4 gross profit margin = 35%
2010 Q1 gross profit margin = 25.8%
2010 Q2 gross profit margin = ????%
to be continue...
Saturday, May 1, 2010
(转)蚂蚁小弟 Harta 分享
http://antsmovemyhouse.blogspot.com/2010/04/blog-post.html
Harta 的 power point slide
http://www.investmalaysiaconference.com/website/bm/media_centre/Events/InvestMalaysia2010/downloads/IM_corporate_Hartalega.pdf
Topglove 的 power point slide
http://www.investmalaysiaconference.com/website/bm/media_centre/Events/InvestMalaysia2010/downloads/IM_corporate_top_glove.pdf
Supermx 的 power point slide
http://www.investmalaysiaconference.com/website/bm/media_centre/Events/InvestMalaysia2010/downloads/IM_corporate_Supermax.pdf
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
二哥:Glove Industry (转)
Few days ago, Am Research issued a report on the glove industry. It raised its concern on the over expansion of the industry players like Topglove, Supermax, Kossan, Hartalega and others. Good job by Am Research, it pointed clearly that there might be margin squeeze due to the over expansion which may cause supply excessively more that demand, appreciation of Ringgit Malaysia and increase of raw material cost. It argues that the profit margin of these companies might be “normalized” to previous level before epidemic of H1N1.
A friend of mine call me, he said he intend to take this opportunity to buy more Topglove and Hartalega. I asked him, do you agree with the arguments of Am Research? I warned him that what Am Research pointed out make sense at surface. I said if you are no sure than what is the reason to buy more, then don’t buy? Then he asked for my opinion, my view will be as below:-
1. This industry still will grow (this market will never shrink – especially for disposable type). There are still huge potential from China and India market due to their level of awareness. The demand of latex glove from these market will increase substantially. While nitrile glove will gain more footings in developed country like US & Europe.
2. Over the past years, glove makers are growing under this so called ““normalized” period of time. So what is so special about the current state of demand over supply for the previous few months? Public Bank is growing year after year although margin is under squeezed, because the overall market is still growing; and it is able to eat into other players’ market share. Similar to glove industry, the most efficient player (latex glove – Topglove, nitrile glove – Hartalega) will grow more than the average growth rate of the industry. They are able to take market share of others. Stay away from inefficient players.
3. The business franchise of this industry still intact. There is no substitute for their product, it so simple. They also still able to pass the cost increase and the Ringgit appreciation to customers. Which business in Malaysia possesses these competitive advantages? Just let me know, sure I will bet big on that.
4. Trust the best captain of this industry instead of analyst. At no time an analyst will know the business better that the player. Analyst will remain as analyst; the businessman will make more money. As investor just applied business-like investment approach and strategy.
I definitely welcome the price dropped, and ready to buy more if the price is right.
Glove makers continue to slide
Written by Surin Murugiah |
Wednesday, 14 April 2010 00:18 |
KUALA LUMPUR: Glove manufacturers were among the major losers on April 13, led by TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD [] and KOSSAN RUBBER INDUSTRIES BHD [], on concerns over raw material costs after rubber prices jumped to a 20-month high in Japan, and the ringgit’s appreciation against the US dollar. |
Monday, April 12, 2010
增幅達頂.賺幅收窄 券商下修手套股評級
April 11, 2010 18:03
(吉隆坡11日訊)橡膠手套需求成長已達頂峰,業者盈利賺幅或收窄,券商下修橡膠手套領域評級至“減持”(Underweight),頂級手套 (TOPGLOV,7113,主要板工業)和高產柅品(7153,主要板工業)降至“守住”(Hold)。
大馬研究分析報告說,頂級手套截至今年2 月底次季財報已顯示,手套需求趨向正常的跡象。
“據我們查詢,頂級手套交貨截止時間,已從2010財年首季的90天,減至次季的50天。”
報 告透露,在需求正常交易階段,上述兩家公司持續錄得30到40天的交貨期。
“這意味著已達頂峰的手套需求成長未來將趨低,製造業的定價權力 將加速轉移至消費者,今年中落實的額外產能計劃將使這情況惡化。”
報告指出,我國3大手套生產商將在今年底,提高產量多達90億至120億 隻手套,至于額外需求預測介于140億至150億隻,所以消費者未來或越來越不願意接受更高售價。
“乳膠價趨高,令吉兌美元匯報疲軟和能源 成本或變高,提前為業者帶來賺幅壓縮的憂慮。”
大馬研究因而下修橡膠手套領域評級至“減持”,財測下調后的頂級手套和高產柅品評級降至“守 住”,合理價各減至12.50令吉7.65令吉。
週五閉市時,頂級手套報13.70令吉,揚12仙,成交量64萬7500股;高產柅品收 7.99令吉,,滑14仙,成交量90萬3000股。Saturday, March 27, 2010
Harta Expansion Plan
賀特佳設新生產線增產
2010-03-25 15:32
(吉隆坡)賀特佳(HARTA,5168,主板工業產品組)預料美國醫藥改革方案的通過短期內不會對手套需求帶來顯著影響,但就長期而言,必定逐步帶領手套需求量走高。
目前,賀特佳的美國兩大客戶Medline與Microflex合佔手套總銷量的50%。
賀特佳第一廠房生產線翻新計劃進展順利,加上第5家廠房將於今年杪全面建成,手套產能預計從現有的70億只年產量,進一步提昇至99億只。
賀特佳也有意再購買土地,供作下階段拓展計劃用途。
賀特達董事經理關錦安在股東特大會後表示,第一廠房的翻新耗資4000萬令吉,將以6條高能產線取代現有的10條舊款產線,估計可將現有的5億只手套年產量,提高3倍至大約每年17億只,並於7月投產。
觉得这则新闻很搞笑,今天harta起3毛多,报纸就随便找一个新闻来讲。
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hartalega Holdings is spending some RM40m to upgrade Plant 1 which will help to almost triple production capacity by next year.
With 10 production lines, Plant 1 currently is only producing about 500m pieces of gloves a year. The refurbished plant will increase production to 1.7bn pieces of gloves a year.
The refurbished plant is expected to be ready by July next year. Hartalega is also in the midst of completing its Plant 5 by November which will have 10 production lines.
Currently, the group produces 7bn pieces of gloves a year and once all the new plants are upgraded and completed, the group will produce 9.7bn pieces of gloves a year.
Kuan said the group is continuously looking to acquire land to prepare for the next phase expansion. (BT) Management's comments are in line with our estimates. Thus, no change to our earnings forecasts.
要 upgrade kilang 1,需要用到4千万,还要要买地建新厂,2010 财政年股息应该会少掉。
明年的年总产量,会增加 38%,如果需求依旧,加上米国奥巴马签的那个什么 USA medical plan 的新法律会刺激米国的胶手套需求。
是否意为着,revenue , net profit , eps 都会一起上涨 38% 呢?
理想化来算,用2009年预测的eps 0.57sen 来算,明年2011年的eps 将会是 0.57+38% = 0.7866,如果PE = 15 来算
那么2011 年,股价要上到 RM 11 块以上,是很有可能的。
先留下记录,2011年本仙家再回来马后炮,哈哈哈!!!
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Malaysian Glove Makers Rally on Obama’s Health Bill
Top Glove Corp. led a rally by Malaysian rubber glove makers on speculation President Barack Obama’s U.S. health bill will boost sales.
Top Glove, the world’s biggest, climbed 1.7 percent to a record 13.14 ringgit as of 12:26 p.m. in Kuala Lumpur. Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd., the nation’s third-largest, increased 3.1 percent to 7.64 ringgit, and Adventa Bhd. gained 2.4 percent to 3.48 ringgit. The benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index rose 0.3 percent.
Obama’s $940 billion overhaul of U.S. health legislation subsidizes coverage for uninsured Americans, financed by Medicare cuts to hospitals and fees or taxes on insurers, drugmakers, medical-device companies and Americans earning more than $200,000 a year.
The bill may “lead to higher demand for examination gloves in the U.S. when Americans start to visit health-care centers more frequently,” Jason Yap, an analyst at OSK Research Sdn, said in a report today. It will “put more strain on the supply of examination gloves, which is still catching up with demand.”
Adventa, Kossan and Hartalega Holdings Bhd. are the main beneficiaries of the U.S. health-care bill since high-grade gloves account for the bulk of their products targeted at developed countries such as the U.S., he said.
Top Glove and Supermax Corp. will also benefit as the U.S. accounts for 25 percent and 42 percent of their total sales respectively, he said.
Premium Sales
“The strong demand will reaffirm their ability to sell the gloves at a premium and pass on 100 percent of the cost increase to customers,” Yap said. He has an “overweight” rating on the rubber-glove sector.
Malaysian glove makers have posted higher earnings in recent years and expanded capacity as the global flu outbreak bolstered demand. Top Glove on March 17 said second-quarter profit almost doubled to 70.5 million ringgit ($21.2 million) from a year earlier on higher sales.
The glove makers’ earnings are on “growth hormones” and their expansion plans “are intact as demand is still set to rise this year,” CIMB Investment Bank Bhd. analyst Terence Wong said in a report today. “Many of them are expanding capacity in a big way.”
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Harta again
Monday, February 8, 2010
Harta Top30 Shareholding
Sunday, January 31, 2010
Rubber glove companies enjoy pricing power and steadily rising sales
An oversupply of rubber gloves is unlikely in 2010 but could be a worry in 2011 when more capacity comes onstream. Assuming that the 150 billion-a-year medical glove market grows by 8% a year, an additional capacity of 12 billion gloves will be required per year. Rubber glove companies have been able to pass on higher costs arising from rising latex prices, with Top Glove increasing prices again in January 2010.
Nevertheless, producers of nitrile gloves may now enjoy better margins as the cost advantage that latex gloves enjoy over nitrile gloves may have narrowed as latex prices have risen faster than nitrile prices. Ratings of Malaysian rubber glove companies are still cheaper than those of Ansell, SSL International and the Malaysian market.
The Edge
1.2.2010
By Choong Khuat Hock
Comments:
The whole glove industry is growing. Due to capacity expansion and their smaller sizes, the smaller glove companies are expected to show faster earnings growth than the bigger glove companies.
The industry business is still resilient. Profit margin is either maintained or improving. Glove companies are still able to pass the cost to the customers. How long will this last?
This industry is highly competitive. The business is driven by volume and price. When capacity to supply outstrips demand, those companies with durable competitive advantage are expected to survive. Those low cost producers will be the big winners and leaders. Those companies that automate their production with good quality control will probably be able to lower their costs per unit through increasing productivity. It is possible that those leveraging on low human labour costs now with no or few plans for increasing automation of the manufacturing processes, may eventually lose out to the former in the future both in terms of quality, productivity and costs.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
2010, day 19
今天很沉闷下。
Harta just announce their latest quater report,
5 sen interim dividen
eps 15.35 sen
Stunning performance !!!
回顾 harta financial performance
Harta eps 2008 = 31.94 sen
Harta eps 2009 = 34.88 sen
2010 - 1Q -EPS = 10.88 sen
2010 - 2Q -EPS = 13.66 sen
2010 - 3Q -EPS = 15.35 sen
2010 - 4Q -EPS = ? sen
2010 full year estimate = ?? sen
The glove-maker posted 9M10 net profit of RM97m, up 82% yoy and within market estimates.
Key takeaways from the results:
(1) Revenue increased 28% yoy on higher demand resulting from the recurrent flu outbreak.
(2) Operating margins improved to 29.6% in 9M10 compared to 18.0% in 9M09 on improved
production efficiency and lower raw material prices.
(3)Natural latex prices declined 18% yoy to RM4.62/kg
9M10 from -RM19.5m in 9M09.
(4) A second interim dividend of 5sen/share has been declared, bringing the total dividend declared for FY10 to 10sen/share.
Hartalega trades at FY11E P/E of 11.8x and P/B of 3.6x, versus Top Glove’s P/E
12.5x and P/B 2.9x, and Supermax’s P/E 8.6x and P/B 1.8x.
Monday, January 25, 2010
2010, day 16
我的年度回筹也创下今年新高。
cscstel 从早上排队卖,一直等到,闭市前才match到完,因为T+3到期,小赚。
明天有便宜再买回,我打算一直买卖到财报出为止。
zhulian不错,小赚,明天 T+3 应该会卖。
投机就是投机,有赚就走,输了也要认陪出场, cutloss 的确是一门易懂难为的学问。
QL 好像在打压,明天分红股5送1,4.05 变 3.37 ,听天由命。
klci close 1296.79, 调整应该开始了。
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
2010, day 13, Harta
Yesterday there was a CIMB analysis report about harta, harta quater report will be out on 28 Jan 2010, and they rate as OUTPERFORM, target price at 11.24, so high huh.
For my experience, CIMB research really like to give very high target price, i also dunknow y, LOL
PBB release their quater report today, thats why last 2 day PBB rise so much.
Nothing special about today, KLCI close at 1306.62, new high again, andhad stand above the 1305 resistance, so now how ?
Still waiting QL, cscstel and zhulian to explode.
Zhulian just announce 5sen single tier dividen, haha.
Friday, January 15, 2010
2010, day 10
No. 1 to No. 8 all is glover counter, BRAVO....
Is it The Glove titatic start sinking, we dunknow.
What a day today ! today most all of the rubber glove diving, is this the end of the rubber glove stock rally, or just the big fish want to scare off those small fish ?
At the end, I decide to sell all of my topglove, I first bought it at 06 May 2009, today is 15 Jan 2010, I hav hold it for 8 month. In 8 months time, topglove had generate for me approximate 80% profit on 1 counter, what an amazing year of 2010 bull rally for me .
Now I still hold another glove counter harta, will make decision on Monday market. I think the glove counter will start to make correction.
Today klci had touch the 1300 mark, but closed lower at 1298.58, yet another new closing high.
Watch out for steel sector next week, I feel now the big kaki start to goreng sector by sector, I hope the next 1 is steel sector, and construction sector should be under goreng soon.
CNY effect is really hot hot and hot, hot like a sexy lady...
QL, zhulian, cscstel, is my next riding horse, high chance to win...
this horse must ride ....gogogo.
Thursday, January 14, 2010
2010, day 9
today i sell yesterday chase high ticket cscstel at 1.47, have earn some pocket $.
zhulian and cscstel hav up, i guess next 1 is QL, last run before its bonus share exdate.
And i guess nestle is coming soon, i m waiting nestle 4th quater financial report, and the final dividen, hope can get RM 1.00.
These few days, there are a lot of voices talking about glove counter, etc like, glove bubble, overprice, goreng too much, i think , if those glove counter really have the earning, we still can hold for a while.
Lets wait for supermx coming quater report, if the earning no good as market estimate, the bubble will burst.
Thursday, January 7, 2010
業者續擴產能迎需求, 手套股盈利股價齊唱好
手套股盈利股價齊唱好
(吉隆坡6日訊)基于需求持續上揚,手套業者料將持續擴充產能,盈利仍有上揚空間,手套類股今日齊攀高。
聯昌證券研究在分析報告指出,國內醫藥領域對手套的需求有增無減,相信手套商今年將大幅提高產能,以應付需求。 “我們相信在需求不斷的情況下,手套領域前景仍看俏,同時也維持‘增持’(Overweight)評級,首選速伯瑪(SUPERMX,7106,主要板工業)及穩大(ADVENTA,7191,主要板工業)。” 該行說,手套股去年表現強勁,股價大漲介于94%至5.4倍,同時也跑贏富馬隆綜指,不過本益比(P/E)目前僅達2010財年的9.4倍,股價明顯被低估。 “隨著擴充產能計劃啟動,我們有理由相信,相關業者的盈利上漲空間仍很大,因此不排除將重新評估手套領域。” 手套類股今日走勢亮眼,閉市時就分佔10大上升股榜中的5個席位,包括速伯瑪、賀達麗嘉(HARTA,5168,主要板工業)、來百利(RUBEREX,7803,主要板工業)、穩大,及高產柅品(KOSSAN,7153,主要板工業)。另一方面,富馬隆綜指今日在手套股的強勁買勢下收高,報1293.17點,起4.93點,成交量16億5604萬7900股。
手套股1月6日的走勢
手套股1月6日的走勢 | ||||||
股項 | 開市(令吉) | 休市(令吉) | 波動(仙) | 閉市(令吉) | 波動(仙) | 成交量(股) |
速伯瑪 | 4.73 | 4.98 | +28 | 5.35 | +65 | 917萬100 |
賀達麗嘉 | 6.22 | 6.42 | +21 | 6.72 | +51 | 90萬4100 |
來百利 | 2.34 | 2.38 | --- | 2.75 | +37 | 551萬4200 |
穩大 | 3.15 | 3.30 | +17 | 3.48 | +35 | 696萬2000 |
高產柅品 | 5.52 | 5.64 | +15 | 5.84 | +35 | 42萬5500 |
利得股份 | 3.16 | 3.25 | +7 | 3.30 | +12 | 312萬1100 |
頂級手套 | 10.10 | 10.16 | +8 | 10.24 | +16 | 87萬1300 |
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
幾乎壟斷10大上升股 手套股表現亮眼
吉隆坡6日訊)隨著大馬股市週三繼續上揚,以速伯瑪(SUPERMX,7106,主板工業股)為首的手套股項表現亮眼,幾乎壟斷全場10大上升股排行榜,共有5只手套股及一個憑單成功入榜。
速伯瑪成為全場最大上升股,閉市報5.35令吉,上升13.83%,或65仙。該股的成交量也從週二(5/1)的314萬1300股,上漲至917萬100股。
緊隨其後的是立佳手套控股(HARTA,5168,主板工業股),閉市報6.72令吉,上升8.21%,或51仙。
其他擠入全場10大上升股的手套股,還包括來百利機構(RUBEREX,7803,主板工業股)、來百利機構-WA(RUBEREX WA)、高產尼品(KOSSAN,7153,主板工業股)及穩大有限公司(ADVENTA,7191,主板工業股)。這3家公司分別佔全場上升股的第4至 第7位排名。
業績表現搶眼
百利機構與來百利機構-WA分別以2.75令吉(+18.07%)與1.46令吉(+40.39%)掛收;高產尼品與穩大有限公司則分別報5.84令吉(+6.38%)及3.48令吉(11.19%)。
此外,沒有入榜的頂級手套(TOPGLOV,7113,主板工業股)全天也起16仙,或1.59%,至10.24令吉。
接受《東方財經》詢問的抽佣經紀均對手套股的強勢表現不感到意外。
符之源表示,主要手套股如速伯瑪正帶動二、三線的手套股上揚。
手套股的強勢表現,明顯使其他領域股項失色不少。
「這是因為投資者非常看好手套製造公司的前景,全球對手套的需求也相當令人鼓舞。」
他強調,此前肆虐全球的A(H1N1)型流感並未煙消雲散,沒有人能夠排除第二波流感的侵襲,衛生手套的需求將繼續支撐手套製造業走強。
與此同時,達證券抽佣經紀陳玉麟表示,幾乎所有手套公司的業績表現都相當搶眼,令投資者及市場人士對手套股的信心大增。
Monday, November 23, 2009
Harta eps record.
Harta eps 2009 = 34.88 sen
2010 - 1Q -EPS = 10.88 sen
2010 - 2Q -EPS = 13.66 sen
2010 - 3Q -EPS = ? sen
2010 - 4Q -EPS = ? sen
2010 full year estimate = 49 sen
如果用我预测少一点,eps 40sen 来算 今天5.72 闭市 PE = 14.30,我个人觉得合理价了
反观 topglove 2009 eps = 57 sen,今天9.11 闭市 PE = 16
如果用 topglove PE 16 评估 Harta eps 49sen = rm7.80 ,那我就发达了