（吉隆坡17日訊）根據瞭解，日本上週五的地震導致40%膠合板產能受損，讓市場對本地木材業者可能在日本的災後重建時，爭取到更多訂單充滿憧憬，這樣的預期也導致相關領域股項今日繼續受到追捧。
今日在熱門榜以及漲幅榜當中，有多只木材股，當中除了一些被看好將從這趨勢中受惠的公司，也不乏一些純粹因為市場對木材領域的樂觀情緒，而沾上邊被炒高的木材股。
駐溫哥華的Interex森林產品有限公司主席格聯維勝表示，日本約35%至40%的膠合板產品，已經被上週五發生的天災摧毀。而有幾家加拿大主要森林製成品公司，正聯手協助日本進行重建活動，這將帶動木材與建築材料價格的需求。
大馬研究分析員上調了木材業者大安控股（TAANN，5012，主板工業股）的評級，該研究機構表示，這不只是因為日本災後重建將帶來更大的需求，同時，這次的大災難不僅房屋倒塌，而且受到海嘯嚴重摧毀的宮城更是一個聚集多家膠合板製造廠的地方，這預料也將導致膠合板的需求顯著增加。
日本工程及經濟研究機構早前估計，截至2012年3月31日的財政年，日本的新房開工數將成長9.9%，或89萬8900個單位。這數目料將上調。
去年，日本共生產了700萬平方米的膠合板，而入口膠合板則達到300萬平方米，當中，從大馬進口的膠合板則佔進口額的一半。因此，分析員看好今年木材工業領域對於出口至日本的前景，並給予木材工業領域股項「增持」的評級。
分析員將大安控股的評級從「守住」，上調至「買進」，目標價是6.30令吉，主要因為該公司90%的膠合板產量是供出口至日本。
大安控股在開市時以4.98令吉開跑，最後以5.48掛收。全天共上漲10.04%，或0.50令吉，成交量為300萬3800股，是今日漲幅最大的股項。
常成大熱大起
此外，分析員也將常成控股（JTIASA，4383，主板工業股）維持在「買進」的評級和目標價格為6令吉。該股週四全天共上揚6.275%，或0.32令吉，閉市價是5.42令吉，成交量共26萬5100股。也是今日漲幅第3大的股項。
另外，黃傳寬控股（WTK，4243，主板工業股）則登上熱門榜榜首，全天上漲8仙，至1.62令吉，成交量高達3066萬7400股。而美固木合板 （MIECO，5001，主板工業股）不但上漲29.53%，或0.155令吉，至0.68令吉，成為10大漲幅股之一，還憑著2459萬2300股，成 為第2大熱門股。
至於其他木材股也隨著出口量可能上漲的預期而受到追捧，並居守在10大熱門榜及上升榜內。
在10大上升股內還有常豐控股（SUBUR，6904，主板工業股）和林威（LINGUI，2011，主板工業股）。其中，常豐控股全天共上漲17.04%，或0.38令吉，以2.61令吉掛收。林威的股價也上揚12.25%，至1.45令吉。
10大熱門榜上也出現了兩家業績仍面對虧損的木材公司--利維科資源（LEWEKO，8745，主板工業股）及實質木材產品（PWORTH，7123，主板工業股），以及豐隆仍持有股權的長青纖維板（EVERGRN，5101，主板工業股）。
利維科資源全天漲21.88%，至0.195令吉；實質木材產品則漲10.53%，至0.63令吉。長青纖維板漲5.15%，報1.43令吉。
http://www2.orientaldaily.com.my ... 9CL0kEY3uhV14mL81Hp
Showing posts with label lingui. Show all posts
Showing posts with label lingui. Show all posts
Sunday, June 5, 2011
RHB Research: Lingui turning over a new leaf
Lingui Developments Bhd
(May 19, RM1.90)
Initiate coverage at RM1.87 with outperform call and fair value of RM2.71: Lingui has annual log production volume of about one million cu m and an estimated annual plywood and veneer production capacity of about 600,000 cu m. Lingui also owns 35,000ha of forest plantation in New Zealand and a 38.33% stake in Glenealy Plantations (Malaya) Bhd.
Similar to other timber players, Lingui's log export selling prices for April have risen to US$280 (RM845.60) to US$300 per cu m. However, Lingui cautioned that as the spike in log prices was due to a short-term log shortage, it is not likely to be sustainable and believes that log prices will decline when production normalises.
Management said its logging operations have not been affected by the flooding from the Bakun dam impoundment as its forest concessions are not located near that area.
Due to weak softwood prices, Lingui's New Zealand forest plantation operation has been in the red, which has dragged down the performance of the group in the past. Given the current rising prices of radiata pine log, however, Lingui's New Zealand operation will likely see a significant turnaround in the next few years together with the gradual ramp-up in harvesting volume.
According to the latest Japan Lumber report, radiata pine log prices are now at US$170 per cu m C&F (estimated at about US$120 to US$130 per cu m FOB). This compares with the production cost (including depletion expenses) of US$90 to US$100 per cu m.
For 9MFY11, average selling price (ASP) achieved was about US$500 per cu m, while the unit cost of production was slightly higher at US$510 per cu m. This led to losses in Lingui's plywood division. Although plywood prices have been improving in the past nine months, this has been offset by the strengthening of the ringgit against the US dollar.
Nevertheless, we expect Lingui's plywood division to turn around to profitability from 4QFY11 onwards due to the surge in plywood prices after the Japanese earthquake, which will more than offset the increase in production costs.
Risks include: (i) a drop in timber and CPO prices; (ii) lower than expected improvement in Japan's housing starts; (iii) bad weather conditions; and (iv) significant increase in crude oil-related glue and logistics costs.
Our sum-of-parts-derived fair value for Lingui is RM2.71. We valued Lingui's timber business based on a target price-earnings ratio (PER) of 12 times FY12 timber earnings and its 38.3% stake in Glenealy based on current market value.
Despite the 40% run-up in share price since March, following the Japan earthquake, valuations continue to be attractive, vis-'' vis its peers, which are trading at an average CY11 PER of 9.5 times. As such, we initiate coverage on Lingui with an 'outperform' call. ' RHB Research, May 19
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, May 20, 2011.
RHB lingui reseach report can download here
http://www.investalks.com/forum/viewthread.php?tid=7871&highlight=lingui
(May 19, RM1.90)
Initiate coverage at RM1.87 with outperform call and fair value of RM2.71: Lingui has annual log production volume of about one million cu m and an estimated annual plywood and veneer production capacity of about 600,000 cu m. Lingui also owns 35,000ha of forest plantation in New Zealand and a 38.33% stake in Glenealy Plantations (Malaya) Bhd.
Similar to other timber players, Lingui's log export selling prices for April have risen to US$280 (RM845.60) to US$300 per cu m. However, Lingui cautioned that as the spike in log prices was due to a short-term log shortage, it is not likely to be sustainable and believes that log prices will decline when production normalises.
Management said its logging operations have not been affected by the flooding from the Bakun dam impoundment as its forest concessions are not located near that area.
Due to weak softwood prices, Lingui's New Zealand forest plantation operation has been in the red, which has dragged down the performance of the group in the past. Given the current rising prices of radiata pine log, however, Lingui's New Zealand operation will likely see a significant turnaround in the next few years together with the gradual ramp-up in harvesting volume.
According to the latest Japan Lumber report, radiata pine log prices are now at US$170 per cu m C&F (estimated at about US$120 to US$130 per cu m FOB). This compares with the production cost (including depletion expenses) of US$90 to US$100 per cu m.
For 9MFY11, average selling price (ASP) achieved was about US$500 per cu m, while the unit cost of production was slightly higher at US$510 per cu m. This led to losses in Lingui's plywood division. Although plywood prices have been improving in the past nine months, this has been offset by the strengthening of the ringgit against the US dollar.
Nevertheless, we expect Lingui's plywood division to turn around to profitability from 4QFY11 onwards due to the surge in plywood prices after the Japanese earthquake, which will more than offset the increase in production costs.
Risks include: (i) a drop in timber and CPO prices; (ii) lower than expected improvement in Japan's housing starts; (iii) bad weather conditions; and (iv) significant increase in crude oil-related glue and logistics costs.
Our sum-of-parts-derived fair value for Lingui is RM2.71. We valued Lingui's timber business based on a target price-earnings ratio (PER) of 12 times FY12 timber earnings and its 38.3% stake in Glenealy based on current market value.
Despite the 40% run-up in share price since March, following the Japan earthquake, valuations continue to be attractive, vis-'' vis its peers, which are trading at an average CY11 PER of 9.5 times. As such, we initiate coverage on Lingui with an 'outperform' call. ' RHB Research, May 19
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, May 20, 2011.
RHB lingui reseach report can download here
http://www.investalks.com/forum/viewthread.php?tid=7871&highlight=lingui
CIMB Research sees Lingui due for stronger rebound
By theedgemalaysia.com | The Edge – Fri, Apr 22, 2011
KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Equities Research has a Buy on Lingui Developments as the technical landscape for its share price is improving.
It said on Friday, April 22 that Lingui hit a new 52-week high of RM2.11 on 7 April before profit taking set in.
The pullback dragged prices towards the 38.2% FR level, fulfilling the minimum retracement target.
“Looking at the chart, we think the stock is due for a stronger rebound,” it said.
CIMB Research said the technical landscape is improving. MACD histogram bars are falling at a slower pace while RSI has also hooked upward.
It said traders may start to nibble now. Only a fall below RM1.78 would trigger our stop. Meanwhile, resistances are RM2.11 and RM2.25.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)