日本重建推高需求 木材股受熱捧

（吉隆坡17日訊）根據瞭解，日本上週五的地震導致40%膠合板產能受損，讓市場對本地木材業者可能在日本的災後重建時，爭取到更多訂單充滿憧憬，這樣的預期也導致相關領域股項今日繼續受到追捧。

今日在熱門榜以及漲幅榜當中，有多只木材股，當中除了一些被看好將從這趨勢中受惠的公司，也不乏一些純粹因為市場對木材領域的樂觀情緒，而沾上邊被炒高的木材股。

駐溫哥華的Interex森林產品有限公司主席格聯維勝表示，日本約35%至40%的膠合板產品，已經被上週五發生的天災摧毀。而有幾家加拿大主要森林製成品公司，正聯手協助日本進行重建活動，這將帶動木材與建築材料價格的需求。

大馬研究分析員上調了木材業者大安控股（TAANN，5012，主板工業股）的評級，該研究機構表示，這不只是因為日本災後重建將帶來更大的需求，同時，這次的大災難不僅房屋倒塌，而且受到海嘯嚴重摧毀的宮城更是一個聚集多家膠合板製造廠的地方，這預料也將導致膠合板的需求顯著增加。

日本工程及經濟研究機構早前估計，截至2012年3月31日的財政年，日本的新房開工數將成長9.9%，或89萬8900個單位。這數目料將上調。

去年，日本共生產了700萬平方米的膠合板，而入口膠合板則達到300萬平方米，當中，從大馬進口的膠合板則佔進口額的一半。因此，分析員看好今年木材工業領域對於出口至日本的前景，並給予木材工業領域股項「增持」的評級。

分析員將大安控股的評級從「守住」，上調至「買進」，目標價是6.30令吉，主要因為該公司90%的膠合板產量是供出口至日本。

大安控股在開市時以4.98令吉開跑，最後以5.48掛收。全天共上漲10.04%，或0.50令吉，成交量為300萬3800股，是今日漲幅最大的股項。

常成大熱大起

此外，分析員也將常成控股（JTIASA，4383，主板工業股）維持在「買進」的評級和目標價格為6令吉。該股週四全天共上揚6.275%，或0.32令吉，閉市價是5.42令吉，成交量共26萬5100股。也是今日漲幅第3大的股項。

另外，黃傳寬控股（WTK，4243，主板工業股）則登上熱門榜榜首，全天上漲8仙，至1.62令吉，成交量高達3066萬7400股。而美固木合板 （MIECO，5001，主板工業股）不但上漲29.53%，或0.155令吉，至0.68令吉，成為10大漲幅股之一，還憑著2459萬2300股，成 為第2大熱門股。

至於其他木材股也隨著出口量可能上漲的預期而受到追捧，並居守在10大熱門榜及上升榜內。

在10大上升股內還有常豐控股（SUBUR，6904，主板工業股）和林威（LINGUI，2011，主板工業股）。其中，常豐控股全天共上漲17.04%，或0.38令吉，以2.61令吉掛收。林威的股價也上揚12.25%，至1.45令吉。

10大熱門榜上也出現了兩家業績仍面對虧損的木材公司--利維科資源（LEWEKO，8745，主板工業股）及實質木材產品（PWORTH，7123，主板工業股），以及豐隆仍持有股權的長青纖維板（EVERGRN，5101，主板工業股）。

利維科資源全天漲21.88%，至0.195令吉；實質木材產品則漲10.53%，至0.63令吉。長青纖維板漲5.15%，報1.43令吉。

http://www2.orientaldaily.com.my ... 9CL0kEY3uhV14mL81Hp

财报周马后炮时间

受美元走弱和原木价格高涨的影响，长青纤维板（Evergrn，5101，主板工业产品股）截至2011年3月31日财年首季，净利暴跌82.62%至575万1000令吉，上财年则取得3308万1000令吉。

首季营业额也下滑2.15%至2亿3355万7000令吉，上财年则为2亿3868万9000令吉。

長青纖維板末季收益料減半

2011-01-19 19:09

（吉隆坡19日訊）長青纖維板（EVERGRN, 5101, 主板工業產品組）因受去年11月洪水影響，導致泰國廠房關閉2週，加上甲醇價高企影響膠價按季增長32%，2010財政年第四季收益料按季下挫50%。

冬天需大量煤炭取暖，預計中國煤炭短缺將減少甲醇供應，因此下調2010財政年收益預測18%至9千800萬令吉。

同時，鑑於膠價成本高企及美元走疲，下調011至2012財政年淨利預測9至15%，分別是1億1千500萬及1億3千100萬令吉。

不過，相信膠價將合理化，加上泰國洪水退去，接下來的季度收益有望轉好。

長青纖維板有能力調高中密度纖維板（MDF）價格至每立方公里10美元，料將反應在2011財政年首季業績。未來，由於需求強勁料MDF價持續看漲。

現金流強勁，資本支出較低，假設派息率是35至36%，上調2011至2012財政年每股派息分別至8仙及9仙。

長青纖維板是全球第五大生產商，有望從全球經濟受惠，加上2011財政年每股收益本益比是6倍，屬中密度纖維板業者最廉價，前景備受看好。

長青纖維板250萬購長青膠粘劑與化學

2011-01-04 13:24

（吉隆坡4日訊）長青纖維板（EVERGRN, 5101, 主板工業產品組）以250萬令吉，全面收購長青膠粘劑與化學私人有限公司。

長青纖維板發表文告說，該收購將透過內部現金融資，料今年首季完成。

星洲互動‧2011.01.04

自己生产 glue，甲醇，煤炭拿来做么的？

长青纤维板拓展种植业

2011年04月27日 05:31 星洲日报

　　（吉隆坡27日讯）长青纤维板（EVERGRN， 5101， 主板工业产品组）在大马设立新子公司Evergreen Agro有限公司，以拓展种植业务活动。

　　该公司表示，Evergreen Agro的注册股本为10万令吉，长青纤维板将在Evergreen Agro持有50%股权，设立公司成本将藉现金进行。

　　Evergreen Agro主要为进行种植者、橡胶与泥土生产的买家业务。

真的要自己种树？？

长青纤维板末季收益料减半

24-01-2011

OSK Research keeps "Buy" call on Evergreen.

Thursday, March 17, 2011

KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research said it recently received an update on Evergreen Fibreboard (EFB)'s business operations and found that a spate of increases in the prices of raw materials had chipped away the company's profits.

The research house said on Thursday, March 17 that Evergreen was also hit by a shortage of raw material and was unable to sell as much timber products, which in turn also affected its topline.

'These factors prompt us to lower our earnings estimates and arrive at a lower target price of RM1.73 from RM2.02 previously. The stock remains a BUY,' it said.

長青纖維板能從日本重建受惠嗎？

2011-03-28 12:08

AH CHUAN問：

請問長青纖維板（EVERGRN, 5101, 主板工業產品組）有出口到日本嗎，其盈利能在日本災難發生後從中獲益嗎？

答：長青纖維板是大馬最大中密度纖維板生產商，並在全球市場佔第五位置。截至去年中，該公司產品年產量為131萬立方米，並生產組合式木家具。

長青纖維板產品70%供出口全球市場，主要包括中東國家、印尼、印度、巴基斯坦、越南。

在3年前，長青纖維板曾表示要進軍更多市場，包括日本在內，至今成果如何沒有進一步詳情。惟日本災難後，也沒有訊息顯示，是否趁機出口更多中密度纤維板產品至日本市場。

若是較後時能進入災難後的日本市場，這肯定對其業務有利。

原料漲
今明年財測下調

不過，根據僑豐研究最近一份研究報告顯示，橡膠木短缺與上漲驚人，其它原料如黏劑價格亦上漲，預期長青纖維板兩財政年淨利受衝擊，並大砍2011與2012財政年淨利14.2%與13.4%。

僑豐研究說，橡膠木原料佔營運成本25%至30%，其營運成本自去年起上漲。在原油價格騰漲後，不久恐再掀開另一回合漲潮。

而佔營運成本25%的黏劑按年漲價8.2%，即使去年11月至12月之間，價格按月上漲11.2%。其他如人工成本佔30%，能源與電力佔15%。

上述一系列成本因素侵蝕淨利，2011年淨利下修至9千880萬令吉，2012年調低至1億1千150萬令吉。

分析員說，去年杪馬泰天氣欠佳，兩國乳膠價格上漲至高價，導致園主改變伐老齡橡膠之本意，膠木供應更形短缺。

“因此，長青纖維板所獲橡膠木價格按年上漲21%。儘管今年首季漲勢平平，但原油價格最近又再騰漲後，恐又掀開另一輪上漲。”

分析員說，儘管管理層表明將把原料上漲轉嫁消費者，但預期公司前景籠罩烏雲。

公司已於第二季起調高價格，要在第二季才可看到調高價格利益。其價格於今年2月上漲5美元，3月與4月也以此漲幅攀漲。

調高產品售價料緩衝產能低的缺失，其營業額今年調低7.6%至9億4千800萬令吉，明年下修10.3%至9億8千740萬令吉。

今年每股派息率調至5.5仙

另外，今年每股派息率調低至5.5仙，派息率約為28.5%；前期則為每股6仙。

維持“買進”評級，目標價調低至1令吉73仙，前期為2令吉零2仙。

日本地震、核災衝擊極微，日本業務佔營業少過0.5%，間接營業額只達5%。

Evergreen Fibreboard: Headwinds and more headwinds

ORIGINAL LINK
http://goodstockbadstock.blogspot.com/2010/12/evergreen-fibreboard-headwinds-and-more.html

This review should be written weeks ago, but, I keep on delaying until Q4 is going to end soon and I am reviewing Q3 figures. LOL. Since Q3 is quite a while ago, I would not touch too much on the numbers but rather focus more on the more medium term headwinds faced by the company as well as some of the recent developments.

The Q3 profits was rather bad, it is down around 45% from preceding quarters. I don't think there is a huge seasonal effects in their earnings, so comparison with preceding quarter may give us a better picture compared to a y-o-y comparison. Management gives a few reasons such as plant maintenance, increase transport cost due to ramadan, higher log costs, plant shut down for maintenance and etc. Most of these are non-recurring apart from the log costs which is inching higher.

Management also guided on higher glue cost going forward. As mentioned previously, I would not touch too much on other operating figures because it is rather long time ago and I feel that the analyst report has done a rather good job covering it. So, it would be more value adding to talk about some medium term challenges that are not that well covered by either the analysts or the media.

Overcapacity in ASEAN?

Alex Lu of the very popular nexttrade blog has touched a bit on the issue in one of his blog post here. So, are there any aggressive capacity expansion by ASEAN producers? Yes. What is the numbers we are talking about? As of today, based on the information that I have, we are looking at around 1.0585 million m3 of new capacity coming on stream on 2012 ( It takes around 1 year to set up the plant).

So, we may only get some clearer picture on margin compression on early 2012. There are only three players that are expanding but the size of their expansion is rather huge. One of them is Evergreen's former JV partner-Panel Plus with a 1000m3/day in Thailand. Panel Plus is a subsidiary of Mitr Pohl group which is one of the largest sugar producer in ASEAN. As they are under a conglomerate, Panel Plus may be a strong competitor to Evergreen as it has access to internal capital markets.

So, it will still be financially strong during the down-cycle as it can receive funding from other non-MDF division within the group. Another Thai player that is expanding is PB Rayong with a 700m3/day new plant while the most ambitious of the expansion is by VRG/Dongwha of Vietnam with a capacity of 1200m3/day. The VRG plant is the largest ever MDF plant in SEA. So, all in all, we have 1.0585 million3. These is rather huge increase as the total industry capacity in SEA currently is around 3 million, so, we are seeing about 33% new capacity coming on stream on 2012.

Some of these expansion I think is actually for CAPEX plans that being hold back during the crisis as I do not see much activity in this front during 2008 and 2009 except a small expansion from some Indonesian players. One of the more worrying trend I am seeing is the pace of the expansion worldwide, especially in China. Siempelkamp, one of the major equipment manufacturer for the MDF and PB industry is running at full capacity.Dieffenbacher, which I think is the market leader, is doing very well too by clocking in a lot of orders. In China alone, there will be at least 18 plants coming on stream in 2012 but the size of the plants is smaller than those we are seeing in SEA. The Chinese productions are mainly used to supply internal demands rather than for export, but, what I fear is that, these sort of aggressive expansion may result in Chinese productions starting to flood the export market. However, I think Chinese MDF are made using other sort of wood i.e. non-rubber log, that are perhaps more expensive. If I remember correctly (fact checking needed), they import logs from Russia. Russia, again if I remember correctly cause I sometimes mixed up between various industries, has begun to imposed taxes on its logs export a year or two ago. So, the Chinese players may have some cost disadvantaged here.

Another potential concern is that, I am observing (note: my observation may not be correct since I am not in the industry), some particleboard(PB) players are starting to add MDF into their offerings. Previously, most of the players are actually more PB-focused or are PB-only players (Evergreen is the only odd one out that focuses mostly on MDF), but, we are seeing signs of players actually shifting some of their production focus into MDF like the case of PB Rayong which I believe use to be a pure PB player rather than a MDF+PB player. So, we need to pay attention to such a shift as companies will focus more and pay more attention to their MDF division now if its contribute to a larger chunk of their revenue. This will cause potential increase in competition ahead.

On the Europe front, one of its competitor, Pfleiderer, is facing bankruptcy threat. Thus, it is closing down two of its plant but only one of those are MDF-based. Pfleiderer is actually a PB-focused player with little MDF capacity, that's why I am a bit puzzled when analyst like to use it as a peer. But, probably because there are a lack of listed engineered-wood producer to choose from. One of the reason for the Pfleiderer plant closure is that there is an overcapacity problem in Europe. So, we are seeing some overcapacity there also. On a side note, Pfleiderer closure may benefit Evergreen if they can capitalize on it to buy some parts from Pfleiderer. Evergreen management is quite savvy in buying good second hand parts to cut costs and it has bought from Pfleiderer before. But, that's a big IF and impact should not be significant.

Exchange Rate


Another potential challenges plaguing Evergreen is the exchange rate appreciation. Actually, I don't see appreciation per-se as much of a problem because everyone is facing it. Here's a chart on the year to date MYR and THB appreciation vs. USD.

(Source:Yahoo Finance)

As you can see, both countries actually appreciate at more or less the same rate. As for Euro, it depreciate by 10% vs. USD. So, MYR and THB loses around 20% advantage versus Euro. But, European producers have high cost to content with.

So, currency appreciation is not my foremost worries, it will be pass on eventually to the customer. What I am more worried is the volatility in the exchange rate. Take a look at the chart, exchange rate can move up or down by 1-2% within a week or so, which I think is a big movement. You may think 1-2% is a small issue, but, for a manufacturer with 10+ % margin, a 1-2% move may meant a 10+% decline in profits.

Let's me illustrate the situation more clearly. Imagine Evergreen hedged their USD exposure today for their sales in the next period. Then, within one week, some crazy stuff happen in Korea and everyone got scared and money flow back to US and USD appreciates by 1-2% versus MYR and THB. Then, Evergreen competitor, Panel Plus got lucky and hedged its currency exposure after the USD appreciation. Now, Panel Plus has some cost advantage that Evergreen has to match. Evergreen need to find a 1-2% efficiency gain just because Panel Plus got lucky. The volatility makes the life of the exporters much harder now. On a broader and unrelated note, it also makes comparison between exporters for example glove makers and palm oil companies much harder as you do not know which companies got lucky by hedging at the right time. So, a firm that are more profitable now may actually not be the case. But, obviously, you can take out the appreciation gain or stuff if it is reported in the detailed P&L but you need to make changes to the balance sheet too. Just makes life much harder.

Thus, appreciation is not a problem, the problem is the volatility. Life as an exporter is just getting harder and harder.

Rubber Wood Log Supply

I think on the long run, rubber log supply may be a major concern if it really run out of rubber plantation. Despite research being conducted on palm oil wood as a replacement, it is not feasible due to the low fibre content of palm oil trees. A combination is possible but not 100% palm oil wood. Evergreen previously told some RHB analysts that Malaysia has sufficient supply of rubber logs to meet 20 years of Evergreen's demand assuming no replanting. But, we need to bear in mind that Evergreen is not the only producer in Malaysia and not all of these will be sold to Evergreen. Some logs may just be left to rot.So, the sustainability of the rubber wood supply is certainly a concern but I believe the management is addressing it by looking into wood plantation. It is a long pay-back period venture that I think they will only do it if situation really become that bad. The problem I can see is that, if ,going forward, commodities prices go higher, plantation land will be more expensive too. So, the pay-back period may be getting longer and longer if the management delay getting into the project. But, this management really know their stuff, I trust them to make the correct decision.

Dawa Timber Takeover

It is a related-party transaction, so, there is always a concern for this type of deals. One of the research house actually said this takeover is overpriced. The reason. Evergreen FORWARD PE is around 6 times and the deal is done at 7-8 times HISTORICAL PE. I don't think it is logical to compare a forward multiple with a historical multiple, it is just not apple to apple comparison. Actually, if you compare Evergreen historical PE with that of the deal, the deal seems to look cheap. Another concern raise by the analyst is that it is higher that the industry multiple that is being given in Evergreen announcement. But, I have look at what is the peers are, most are lousy companies in Malaysia with some high gearing, so, it is understandable that it is 1x PE more than the industry. I am not being bias here, just stating the fact that I did not see anything fishy here. It is good that they bring the company back to Evergreen fold so that there are less issues with conflict of interest.

I will end the review here. There are actually more stuff to talk about but some are rather sensitive. I suspect one of the Evergreen competitor are actually stalking my post on Evergreen. So, I will not talk about some rather non-public and sensitive issue (it is in public domain but you need to know where to find) that may harm Evergreen competitive position. These issues may offer potential upside or downside. Google correctly and you will find it.

Evergrn: 听其言而观其行 - 冷眼

http://www.investalks.com/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=2414&extra=&page=2

2010-4-15
某人问：
Hi,

I am one of the minor shareholders of Evergreen Fiberboard Group. I am very interested to invest more in your company but my concern is that the company's products are sold in USD while costs are based on MYR. Can the company provide some guidance for the investors like me to estimate the impact of Ringgit appreciation to the company's earning? In view of the strong MYR, what are the measures the company has taken to prevent the earning from being deteriorated? Thank you very much.

COO reply：
Dear Investor:

My name is Mr. Kuo Jen Chiu, Chief Operating Officer of Evergreen Group.

First of all , thank you very much for your trust and investment in our company. In reply to your concern, which I wouldn’t say there is no impact, but to be exact it is short term. In other words, long term wise it is comfortable.

Out of our total sales, 30% is domestic, in other words not subject to currencies impact, and from our total cost ex-factory, 30% (Glue cost) is US peg, that means this cost is not subject to currency fluctuations, that means out of 70% of our sales that is related to export, 30% of the cost is US peg, the net effect is 42% exposure to the impact of currencies fluctuations.

Action taken
1) The good thing is the market has strengthened a fair bit and we are able to increase prices, even the slower market experienced in the far east has picked up lately and we are able to increase prices by Usd 10/ cubic metre.

2) Before we had anticipated this situation to happen and of course hedging could be a solution, but in 2008, Ringgit was as strong compared to current situation and we hedged at that time at 3.2-3.28 level for a period of almost a year with 15%-20% of our group sales. We suffered exchange losses especially 1st half of 2009. We are worried to commit the same mistake and that is why we decided to work hard to open up more domestic market then to do more exports and exposed to this currencies fluctuations.

On the other hand, we are taking taking steps to convert some of our loans to USD base so as to act as a natural hedge and we can use the proceeds to pay off some loans, furthermore interest is fairly low compared to ringgit interest.

Hope I have answered to your questions and feel free to write to us as and when you have doubts. Our group is still very healthy and our net gearing has gone down to 0.42 as compared to 0.72 a years ago. I believe going ahead the road will still be a bit bumpy but we are in good shape to weather through.

Rgds
Jen Chiu

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I have asked the management with regards to the possibility of share buyback due to the undervaluation of the share. But, they say the priority will be paying down the debts and reward shareholder with dividends to compensate them for the dividend not paid during 2009(I think they show this by the 2 cents dividend for 1st Q). I personally prefer part of the fund intended for dividend to be diverted to share buyback as it will bring much more good to the shareholder in the long run.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2010-11-26
Vivian

Please see the reply in red.

Thanks.

> Subject: Investor enquiries
>
> Hi,
>
> I'm one of the shareholder for Evergreen. I'm very impressed by Evergreen for having prudent and aggressive plans for future growth. I am glad to join one of the world top MDF manufacturers. I have few questions would like to ask and appreciate if you are able to take some of your valuable time to feedback:
>
> 1) The company are planning to invest in rubber wood plantation to secure wood chip supply.
> In that case how long does a rubber wood take to be mature as raw material?
> Is it cost efficient to grow own rubber wood?

The plan is to get cheap plantation land to plant both fast growing species (ie acacia) and rubber wood species. Both species will take about 5 years to be mature as raw material for MDF production. But since Rubber Tree has more commercial value, considerations will be also on tapping rubber and have longer growth period before it is cut down. In answering to your question, it is not so viable to grow rubber trees for wood, but more for latex. As for other species (fast growing), i think it is viable as it cost less to plant these other species. Anyway these are just plans and must get cheap land then it would be viable. Still working on it and nothing concrete yet.
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> 2) How is the current utilization of Indonesia MDF plant?
> As mention in latest quarter report, some technical problems in Indonesia MDF plant had been rectified, are those the problems that affect the efficiency of operation in the past?

Normally it takes about 3-5 months to correct things up and run to efficiency. Indo plant was commissioned in Aug 2010 and we expect 2011 onwards it will contribute to 85% utilisations. Currently it is running at 55-60% utilisation rates.
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> 3) Will it be higher dividend to be pay out in next quarter if there are no significant capex plans?

Certainly if no significant capex plans.
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> 4) How the company will respond to the current weakening of share price?

With more dividend payout, which we are targeting 30-60% payout, it gives a dividend yield of about 5.5-7.5%, think it should be quite attractive price at moment and price should hold well.
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> Thanks in advance.