Blogging The New Ukraine

The Ukrainian Institute of New Virology blogs about world politics. Russian politics, American politics and Ukrainian politics. It is Not Entirely Safe For Work. But it is a good read. Here is their masthead:

Ukrainian Institute of New Virology (UIONV) is a newly founded institution. The Institute is engaged in the study of pathogenic viruses, struck in recent years Ukraine and the rest of the world, the development methods of prevention and treatment of diseases caused by respective viruses. The research based on a bold hypothesis proposed by Professor Kovbasyanya (on the left you see a photo of this brilliant scientist), who is the founder and scientific head of our Institute, that different viruses are seeing now are simply different modifications of the same virus. In essence, this means that, for example, such diseases as pig flu, Pedophilia, "Left Diplomas", etc. caused by the same virus that we have yet to be fully explored and identified. So far, according to our hypothesis, we know only one of its modifications - A (H1N1). Research is being conducted intensively and in the practical field, perhaps we will soon gather in the manufacture of vaccines, it will depend on the funding of our research.

I enjoyed my visit there (yeah that NESFW thing) and plan to visit more often. It would be hard to visit less often as I have only been there once. So far.

US Flotilla Transits Turkey Arrives In Georgia

I'm going to go into some detail on the ships which is interesting in and of itself. However, the most interesting part to me is that the warships had to transit Turkey to arrive in the Black Sea. That I believe is the most critical development in the region of Georgia. Turkey is supporting Georgian independence from Moscow. By treaty they are supposed to allow small warships to transit the Straights of Bosporus. However, they made no diplomatic representation such as "We deplore the build up of Naval power in the region". I must say that it is a most welcome yet unexpected development. It also means that flights from Turkey to Georgia are also assured. Further it means that the Ukraine can be defended from Russian moves.

Here are the ships involved according to The US Navy.

BATUMI, Republic of Georgia (NNS) -- USS McFaul (DDG 74) pulled into the port of Batumi, Georgia, Aug. 24 to deliver humanitarian relief supplies to the country as part of the larger United States response to the government of Georgia request for humanitarian assistance.

There will be a total of five ships including the USS Mount Whitney and USCGC Dallas.

The U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Dallas (WHEC 716) and USS Mount Whitney (LCC/JCC 20) have also on-loaded humanitarian supplies destined for Georgia. Dallas left Souda Bay, Crete on Thursday with more than 76,000 pounds of relief supplies and will arrive in Georgia within a week. U.S. Navy C-9, C-40 and C-130 aircraft have flown tens of thousands of hygiene kits into the country over the past week.

The USS Mount Whitney is a rather interesting ship. Here is a description given by the US Navy:

MOUNT WHITNEY (MTW) serves as the Command Ship for Commander, SIXTH Fleet/ Commander, Joint Command Lisbon/Commander, Striking Force NATO and has a complement of 150 enlisted personnel, 12 officers and 150 Civilian Mariners from Military Sealift Command. MTW was the first U.S. Navy combatant to permanently accommodate women on board.

MTW carries enough food to feed the crew for 90 days and can transport supplies to support an emergency evacuation of 3,000 people. The ship makes 100,000 gallons of fresh water daily and carries over one million gallons of fuel, enough for a round trip, 16 knot, 35 day voyage from Norfolk, Virginia to Mozambique in the Indian Ocean. The ship's two anchors weigh 11 tons each and are attached to 180 fathoms (or 1,080 feet) of anchor chain. Each chain weighs almost 25 tons. Total electrical capacity is 7,500 kilowatts, a sufficient amount to power a small city.

The ship's afloat communications capability is second to none. MTW can receive, process and transmit large amounts of secure data from any point on earth through HF, UHF, VHF, SHF, and EHF communications paths. This technology enables the Joint Intelligence Center and Joint Operations Center to gather and fuse critical information while on the move. As the most sophisticated Command, Control, Communications, Computer, and Intelligence (C4I) ship ever commissioned, MTW incorporates various elements of the most advanced C4I equipment and gives the embarked Joint Task Force Commander the capability to effectively command widely dispersed air, ground and maritime units in an integrated fashion.

If it was refueled before entering the Black Sea it could support operations independent of land based supplies for quite some time.

Note that with the length of anchor chain supplied it could anchor in 250 to 350 feet of water. i.e. it doesn't need to be in a harbor to anchor.

So what kind of ship is it? In simple terms it is a floating command post. What does it represent in strategic terms? A challenge to Russian supremacy in the Black sea.

Want to hear a Russian General whine about the American forces being moved into the Black sea? I knew you did.

The deputy chief of Russia's general staff suggested that the arrival of the ship and those of other NATO members would increase tensions in the Black Sea. Russia shares the sea with NATO members Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria as well as Georgia and Ukraine, whose pro-Western president also is leading a drive for NATO membership.

"I don't think such a buildup will foster the stabilization of the atmosphere in the region," Russia's ITAR-Tass news agency quoted Col. Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn as saying Saturday.

If by "stability" he means Russian Control I think he is totally correct. However, had Russia wanted stability I don't think they should have gone around whacking their neighbors.

What would the Russian objective have been? Control of the pipeline passing through Georgia. They didn't get it. That means they spent a fair amount of military resources and are not going to get any long term profit from it. In fact they will have the cost of maintaining their troops in a hostile territory. The odds are they will be pulling out as soon as they can do so without losing much face.

How do the Georgians feel about the arrival of the American Navy?

At dockside in Batumi, with the McFaul anchored offshore, U.S. Navy officials in crisp white uniforms were met Sunday by Georgian officials, including Defense Minister David Kezerashvili.

Speaking to The Associated Press on the aft missile deck of the McFaul, anchored a mile offshore, Kezerashvili said Georgians would feel safer now.

“They will feel safe not because the destroyer is here but because they will feel they are not alone facing the Russian aggression,” he said.

And how about the US Congress? Do they get it? Indeed they do. At least a little bit.

In another sign of U.S. support for Georgia, Republican Senator for Indiana Richard Lugar met with the nation's leaders in Tbilisi. He urged European leaders to cut their dependence on Russian energy imports.

``It is imperative that the EU minimize energy dependency upon Russian gas and oil resources, even at this point, it is important for the United States to maintain a dialogue on the energy resources,'' he said.

Indeed it is a necessity. So where will the supplies come from to support Europe down the road? It seems to me that it is critical for the US to start exploiting its vast untapped oil reserves. Drilling, mining and refining US oil is way more profitable than fighting wars over it. Besides, better the Euros spend their money with us than with the Russians or Iranians. Oil at $70 a bbl. will lead to a much more peaceful world than oil at $140 a bbl. Now all we have to do is get the Democrats on board or replace them.

In the long run we will have to get off oil. In the mean time there is no point in fighting wars over it.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Democrats Strike Out

American Thinker recounts the latest moves in Congress with respect to drilling for new oil resources.

After reporting yesterday on Nancy Pelosi's desire to develop a comprehensive energy bill instead of an up or down vote on lifting off shore drilling restrictions, the GOP immediately saw through her transparent attempt to make the bill so poisonous some in her own party could never vote for it and have rejected the idea outright.

Cute. it appears the Democrats are not serious about gaining new sources of marketable oil.

What do the Republicans want?

Republicans lambasted House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) energy plan Saturday advising her to “get out of the way” if she was not going to accept GOP solutions to the energy crisis.

In her Saturday radio address Pelosi announced that Democrats would consider opening up parts of the outer continental shelf for drilling as a part of a broad new energy plan that will be unveiled in the coming weeks.

[snip]

Republicans soundly rejected Pelosi’s proposal – indicating it was too little too late.

“Madame Speaker, we ask you to work with us to help Americans feeling pain at the pump by developing more American energy,” said Republican Study Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas). “If you refuse, we simply ask you get out of the way and allow us to help the people that sent us here.They understand how flawed and out of touch your caucus is on energy issues, and so do we.”

Republican Conference Chairman Adam Putnam (R-Fla.) added, ““There is no better, more qualified spokesperson for the Democratic Party’s failed energy policies than Speaker Nancy Pelosi.”

And how about them Russians? Wretchard looks at Russia's energy plan.

Most of Russia’s current power and influence comes from its production and control of energy. According to the DOE, “Russia’s economic growth over the past seven years has been driven primarily by energy exports, given the increase in Russian oil production and relatively high world oil prices during the period.”

“Russia’s economy is heavily dependent on oil and natural gas exports. In order to manage windfall oil receipts, the government established a stabilization fund in 2004. By the end of 2007, the fund was expected to be worth $158 billion, or about 12 percent of the country’s nominal GDP. According to calculations by Alfa Bank, the fuel sector accounts for about 20.5 percent of GDP, down from around 22 percent in 2000. According to IMF and World Bank estimates, the oil and gas sector generated more than 60 percent of Russia’s export revenues (64% in 2007), and accounted for 30 percent of all foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country.”

Russia’s major market for natural gas is Europe.

So natural gas is not only a money maker for Russia. It is also a knife at the throat of Europe. However, it seems as if some one in Europe has grown a pair. And who would that be? A woman. German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Mikheil Saakashvili, the Georgian president, said "there is no such notion anymore in Georgia as Russian peacekeepers".

"There can be no Russian peacekeepers, these are just Russian forces."

Saakashvili was speaking at a news conference in Tbilisi with Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, at which Merkel gave her support to Georgia's bid to join Nato, an ambition that is strongly opposed by Russia.

"Georgia will become a member of Nato if it wants to - and it does want to," Merkel said.

You know I think the correlation of forces is changing. I believe a lot of this is due to Russia overplaying its hand in Georgia.


And in other news Ukraine has announced that it will make its Russian missile shield data available to the West.

KIEV -- Ukraine said Saturday that it was ready to make its missile-warning systems available for Western countries after Russia announced that it was pulling out of a long-term cooperation agreement involving them.

A ministry statement said Russia's abrogation earlier this year of an agreement involving two tracking stations allowed Ukraine to cooperate with other countries on missile-warning systems and satellite tracking.

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko issued a decree last week putting an end to Ukraine's participation in the accord in view of Russia's own abrogation of the deal.

A top Ukrainian security official, meanwhile, on Saturday discounted any notion of a separatist rebellion in Crimea as President Viktor Yushchenko proposed Kremlin talks on the issue of the Russian fleet based there.

Yushchenko enraged Moscow this week by ordering restrictions on the movement of ships in the Black Sea Fleet, based in the Crimean port of Sevastopol. Russia's military vowed to ignore the rules, saying the fleet answered only to Russia's president.

And not just the missile shield. The Ukraine wants to close the Black Sea to the Russian Fleet. That has got to hurt.

It looks like the firm stand of the US and the former Soviet Republics has stiffened the resolve of Germany and NATO. And who would understand how the lack of resolve on the part of its opponents could lead to a larger war than Germany? Evidently they still study the moves of the Austrian Corporal there. It is too bad France could not redeem its honor by announcing the welcoming of Georgia into NATO. However, what better way to finally rehabilitate Germany than giving them the honor?

And the Democrats? I wonder how many will survive the November election? Evidently they never took to heart the contradiction: No Blood For Oil or No Drilling For Oil? They haven't yet figured which policy to pursue. The Republicans have figured it out. Thank the Maker. And Bush? I think he will be remembered for a long time as the protector of liberty and self government in the former Soviet Republics.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Some One Just Got A Pole Up Their Posterior

The Polish President is not a happy camper. He has issues with Germany and France.

WARSAW, Poland: Poland's president criticized the way France and Germany have handled the crisis between Russia and Georgia, accusing them Saturday of being too soft on Moscow due to their commercial ties with Russia.

Lech Kaczynski also said that European Union policy was being decided by the two EU giants without taking into consideration the views of new EU members such as Poland that once fell under Moscow's control during the Cold War.

"Once again, it turns out that the real decisions in this organization are being made between Berlin and Paris," Kaczynski said in an interview published by the daily Rzeczpospolita and also posted on his official Web site.

"Saying that the Union will have a common policy toward Russia is laughable," Kaczynski said.

He said that French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel were setting EU policy toward Russia, even though it is the easternmost members that have the most at stake.

By commercial ties he means Europe's dependence on Russian gas and oil.

Who stands with the Poles and Ukrainians and Georgians? The Americans. The Europeans are taking the same attitude towards Russia re: Georgia as they did towards Germany in the Rhineland incident in 1936. Or Poland in 1939. It is not our problem. And if it is a problem who cares about the Georgians and besides there is nothing we can do (so true) or will do (truer still).

If France and Germany want to be de facto Russian allies I say it is time to dissolve NATO. If they want some one to come to their aid in case of war perhaps they could enlist Russian help. Or perhaps China would be interested. Or their buddies in the Islamic world. Axis of weasels indeed.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Well Calculated Moves

I was commenting at Winds of Change and some one asked if Bush had thought through his moves:

And, of course, it helps to think through what comes next.

Obviously given the moves and counter moves going on Russia has thought though its actions to the last decimal point and is advancing its position internationally.

1. Poland gets an anti-missile defense.
2. Ukraine is working to expel the Russians from the Black sea.
3. Ukraine and Poland get mutual defense pacts with the US.
4. Its international prestige declines hourly.
5. It has made abundantly clear that doing business with it is a very risky proposition.
6. Its population is declining 1/2% a year
7. Its birth rate is 1.4 - replacement rate is 2.1
8. It exports its women - brides and white slavery

And it is not over yet.

As Canaris said to a Spanish diplomat who asked a similar question about Germany's leader of the time: "Calculated nothing at all."

The next question of course is what happens when Russia cuts off Europe's gas and oil?

My take on all this - Russian oil output is on the decline with the expulsion of Western oil companies. It has to conquer or die. Germany 1939. Japan 1941.

My guess? Russia is bluffing and its bluff has been called.

===

And of its arsenal of nuclear tipped missiles - how many will work when fired? As many as 30%? 50%? Or 10%?

When you bluff it is wisest not to let your opponent see your cards. i.e. had Russia pulled out after its initial depredations it might have kept its credibility intact. Now it has to show its cards or fold. Bush is calling their bluff.

Had Europe in the run up to WW2 stood firm on Czechoslovakia, or Austria resisted the Anschluss, a general war in Europe might well have been avoided. I believe that is the motivation behind current events. Once you let the little guys get picked off it then comes to a bigger war not too much later.

”Britain and France had to choose between war and dishonor. They chose dishonor. They will have war." Winston Churchill

Cross Posted at Classical Values