Earthquakes and Volcanoes

I'm falling behind the disaster predictions for Japan.

Japan's Meteorological Agency on Friday warned the country's 20 volcanoes has become alive due to the massive March 11 earthquake, and a study said earthquake over 9.0-magnitude might hit Japan.

The Agency said volcanic explosion occurred after earthquake several times in history and people should maintain vigilance against this tendency.

The number of earthquake above 6.0 M reached 77 on March. And 74 out of them occurred in quake-hit region, were aftershock. The number is 50 times over the same period last year.

The largest aftershock on April 7 hit Japan has killed 4 people, injured at least 166, and caused a power outage over 2.61 million households, according to Japan's police officials. The Meteorological Agency warned aftershocks above 6.0 M like the April 7 earthquake probably would hit Japan again.

Meanwhile, quakes of the country's 20 volcanoes occurred more frequently after the massive March 11 earthquake, especially, the Fuji, Hakone, and Aso-San.

The news is from Hong Kong which explains why the English in the above is a bit sketchy. Maybe my Unconfirmed Report is not so outlandish after all.

Shorts Not In A Knot Yet?

Piers Corbyn is predicting a major earthquake in the April 6th to 9th period.

Piers Corbyn (5 APRIL) said:

"The 6-9th April is our first major (Trial) Earthquake risk period of April and comes with related extreme weather events forecasts. In these trial periods we expect an increase in the serious M6.0 and above quakes in quake vulnerable locations (and related increases in lower level activity) around the world such as the Pacific 'ring of fire'. This includes the WEST USA which in this time period is probably more vulnerable than for decades.

Who knows if this is a good prediction? If you follow the link you will see that he claims one success already. No. Not Japan.

Update: 7 April 2011 1546z

Japan just had an earthquake.

A strong earthquake of magnitude 7.4 shook the northeast of Japan late on Thursday, and a tsunami warning was issued for the coast already devastated by last month's massive quake and the tsunami that crippled a nuclear power plant.

No damage from Thursday's quake was detected at the plant and NHK said workers had been evacuated without reports of any injuries.

Of course one correct prediction does not a method make when the prediction is so broad. It will take a few more correct predictions before we can be sure the method is better than chance.

Radiation Apocalypse Preparation

A nice review of the events of the last three weeks at Fukushima can be found at the link. It is in Power Point format. If you prefer a pdf you can get that here. You can also get daily status updates from the IAEA here.

So now you know about the apocalypse. What can be done? A guy over at Zero Hedge said there was a do it yourself movement happening in Japan right now to design and build radiation detection instruments. So I looked it up.

You could help design a Geiger counter power supply. I added some words of wisdom in the comments. Another guy working on the Geiger counter problem.

A radio amateur has developed a quasi-calibrated radiation detector (electroscope) that you can build from thread, tin foil, cardboard, and a scrap of wire. Not too sturdy but quite handy in an extreme emergency.

Here is an interesting one from the beginning of the accident: Kimono Lantern and Humanitarian Open Source Hardware.

Written by Akiba Tuesday, 15 March 2011

Things have been crazy here in Tokyo for the past few days. After the Tohoku earthquake, there's been constant streaming of horrible visual images of the disaster on Japanese news. Along with that, there have been warnings of aftershocks up to a magnitude of 8.0, potential nuclear disasters, rolling blackouts, lack of transportation, and dwindling supplies in local supermarkets and grocery stores. It's a stressful situation in Tokyo which has over 25M people and life is anything but normal. It's a chore just to get to work and many feel powerless to do anything but watch the unfolding nuclear situation and hope that it can get contained before a disaster happens. In writing this post, it gives me an excuse to tear myself away from the fear mongering news streams which I'm constantly glued to.

In the hackerspace, we'll be holding our meeting tonight and will probably start hammering out plans to figure out how and where we can help. There are many things that are needed right now in the quake stricken area. There is no power, internet access is extremely limited, food and clean water are dwindling, and transportation to the area is limited. What we decide on will probably depend on what's needed and available at the time.

In any case, one immediate thing that can be done is to provide a source of light to people. With no electricity and limited supplies, flashlights and batteries are a luxury. In the hackerspace, we designed the Kimono Lantern as a solar rechargeable lantern to decorate gardens and patios with. However it has a much bigger use right now as the quake victims have no power and many are spending their nights in the dark. Also, parts of Tokyo will be suffering from blackouts until the power grid can get back to normal levels. With a major nuclear generating plant offline, this could take from weeks to months.

Pictures of the beginnings of a Kimono Lamp.

BTW - should anyone be interested I have a design for an LED flashlight that will operate 200 hours continuously or 10 years flashing (it is always on) on two C cells. The market for this sort of thing should be up for the next couple of years. Contact me if you want to take a shot at it.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Hunger Coming To Korea

There has been an outbreak of foot and mouth disease in South Korea.

The severe foot and mouth epidemic that started in South Korea at the end of November could have even more serious repercussions for public health. Some 3m head of livestock have already been slaughtered but now the environment ministry is concerned about burial of the carcasses.

Under the pressure of events some cattle were buried alive and the authorities sometimes failed to take the necessary precautions: digging pits four or five metres deep and lining them with two layers of plastic sheeting. Farm animals were buried at more than 4,000 sites, often in easily accessible spots, for instance beside rivers.

As spring temperatures rise the corpses will start to rot. Rainfall leaching through the pits, above all during the June monsoon, could contaminate rivers and aquifers. This could be a hazard for drinking water with the risk of another outbreak of foot and mouth disease. To prevent "an unprecedented environmental disaster" the environment minister Lee Maanee last week called for "a full, detailed study of all the [burial] sites before spring".

According to a survey carried out in the eastern province of North Gyeongsang, where the epidemic started, more than one in 10 burial sites needs to be reinforced. New pits may be dug and lined with concrete.

The new problem comes on top of those posed by the epidemic itself, which has already cost South Korea 2,000bn won ($1.75bn) and pushed up food prices. The price of pork rose by nearly 12% in January alone. With about 5% of beef and dairy cattle having been destroyed the authorities are afraid there may be milk shortages, production having dropped by as much as one-fifth in some places.

Could it infect humans? Yes but it is rare.

Because FMD rarely infects humans, but spreads rapidly among animals, it is a much greater threat to the agriculture industry than to human health. Farmers around the world can lose huge amounts of money during a foot-and-mouth epizootic, when large numbers of animals are destroyed and revenues from milk and meat production go down.

And there are animal vaccines. It is looking bad for South Korea. But at least they have resources to buy their way out of the problem.

North Korea is in worse shape although the infection has not spread so far there.

SEOUL—A swiftly moving disease that has decimated South Korean livestock and damaged the country's food production now appears to be out of control in North Korea.

It is unclear where or when the latest outbreak of the airborne, easily transported illness known as foot-and-mouth disease began on the Korean peninsula. But in a sign of the pressure North Korea is facing over the issue, its state media on Tuesday reported that the outbreak originated in the South and that other countries, including Malaysia and Mongolia, have been hit with outbreaks in the past.

North Korea, which faces chronic food shortages and whose authoritarian government resists interaction with outsiders, hasn't taken any apparent steps to cull animals infected with the disease, as South Korea did.

Visitors to North Korea reported as far back as December they suspected the country was battling foot-and-mouth disease, but North Korea's state news agency didn't officially confirm the outbreak until Thursday when it said "more than 10,000 head of draft oxen, milk cows and pigs have been infected" and "thousands of them died."

In addition to reducing the North's already-constrained food supply, the disease's spread to oxen, widely used in place of tractors there, will limit the ability of North Korean farmers to carry out planting and other tasks.

And of course China, which borders North Korea is at risk. This is going to cause a spike in food prices world wide.

The rich countries will be stressed. Many of the poor countries of the world will be broken. Add in the recent freezes in in the US and Mexico and the world food supply is going to be strained severely. And yet the Delta Smelt has shut down a lot of food production in California (brilliant that) and we are using vast acreage to turn corn into alcohol. You have to wonder if the people running the show in America were born stupid or did they have to take classes?

Cross Posted at Classical Values

What To Do Before TSHTF

Wretchard and his commenters are discussing what to do before there is a breakdown in civilization. Of course there is the usual - buy guns and ammo. But what else could help?

Stock up on tools. Even cheap Chinese stuff if it is not too junky. Voltmeters and for those who are somewhat adept – oscopes.

A good shortwave radio. This is good at under $150

Sony ICF-SW7600GR AM/FM Shortwave World Band Receiver with Single Side Band Reception

This is good for $60

Kaito KA1101 - Worldband radio

This is a good disaster radio for $30

American Red Cross FR150 Microlink Solar-Powered, Self-Powered AM/FM/Weatherband Portable Radio with Flashlight and Cell Phone Charger (Red)

and don't forget an antenna for your shortwave radio:

Kaito AN-03L - Radio antenna

Once you get your radio buy spare alkaline batteries and practice using your radio. Like any tool, the more experience you have with it the better it will serve you when you really need it.

If you can fix things or make thing – good. Plumbing, house wiring, simple house repairs. Auto repairs.

Tools, tools, tools. Most of them that will be useful don’t have a rifled barrel.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Magnetism At War

A. Jacksonian left an interesting comment on my piece "Clouds" posted at Classical Values. It is a fascinating look at magnetism, war, global climate, and impending doom from natural causes. I'm posting it here in full. And, thanks A.J. for your always interesting posts and comments.

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Actually, there have been numerous magnetic field reversals in Earth's history. The fact that this was so was discovered due to WWII subsurface magnetic readings taken to try and find U-Boats. Once all the data got put together, identical stripes of different magnetic polarity could be seen on either side of the mid-Atlantic. This was one of the great insights that led to the first International Geophysical Year and the culmination of data from core samples on magnetism and radioactivity that led to the discovery that these stripes were coincident at the same time in history indicating they were placed at the same time. The mid-Atlantic ridge was analyzed and folks realized that new material was being forced out there and it contained the same magnetic orientation and strength as the surroundings as the rock cooled. The very first tape recorder had been discovered, save the 'tape' was oceanic basalt. Global studies of similar rocks pointed to the exact same magnetic orientation at the same time and the same changes over time. This has proven to be a long term key for analyzing rock strata, and measuring the orientation and radioactivity not only places it in time but in position.

From all of that continents now were seen as in motion... well, all geological plates were seen as in relative motion to each other based on sub-plate movement. All from trying to find U-Boats in WWII. That information required that we change how we look at the planet and ask it different questions and we found different answers, and so our view of the planet changed and changed again so we could understand what the rock
was telling us.

Some magnetic flip-flops have been coincident with extinctions (large and small) but not all of them. Changes in background cosmic ray incidents is an indicator from the solar system's relative position within the galaxy and who its neighbors have been. That has also varied over time some changes, up and down, coincident with extinctions, some not. Continents coming together to form supercontinents and their break-ups have been a high, nearly 1:1 indicator of extinction events as habitats suddenly disappear or appear both having long-term impacts on life in those ecozones.

Volcanic activity can play a part, especially those large caldera events at Yellowstone, Toba and elsewhere, as they release large amounts of particulates into the upper atmosphere. The idea for for the amounts was put forward in a good way by a movie on the History Channel. Consider the ejecta to Mt. St. Helens to be a sugar cube. Tambora was a box of sugar cubes (the volcano responsible for the 'year without a summer'). Yellowstone is a 1m x 1m x 1m packing crate of sugar cubes. That gets pretty close to the scale differences involved for relative particulate output, save the actual crate is a bit bigger than the 1 meter cube. Yellowstone, itself, goes through different cyclic events, where it will rest for hundreds of thousands of years and then erupt and continue with smaller-scale, continuous eruptions for a long period and then go quiet. Considering that this same hotspot laid down the meters thick basaltic rock seen in Oregon and Washington States, that is nothing to be sneezed at.

We haven't even started in on the real disasters that can hit North America and will, sooner or later. Cyclicity and periodicity tell us that these things will return, sooner or later, as the geophysics behind them has not changed for them. Global Warming? Heh. Yellowstone! Because once it hits, it continues on for thousands if not tens of thousands of years... did it before and will do it again. And that will assuredly change climates on the planet... I wouldn't suggest trying to 'laser lance' it either. That would be like taking a can of soda, putting it in a paint shaking machine for half an hour, heating it up to couple of hundred degrees and *then* trying to put a small hole in the container. Not a good idea, at all, really. Just like trying to build flood protection on land that is sinking...

Cross Posted at Classical Values