Some One Just Got A Pole Up Their Posterior

The Polish President is not a happy camper. He has issues with Germany and France.

WARSAW, Poland: Poland's president criticized the way France and Germany have handled the crisis between Russia and Georgia, accusing them Saturday of being too soft on Moscow due to their commercial ties with Russia.

Lech Kaczynski also said that European Union policy was being decided by the two EU giants without taking into consideration the views of new EU members such as Poland that once fell under Moscow's control during the Cold War.

"Once again, it turns out that the real decisions in this organization are being made between Berlin and Paris," Kaczynski said in an interview published by the daily Rzeczpospolita and also posted on his official Web site.

"Saying that the Union will have a common policy toward Russia is laughable," Kaczynski said.

He said that French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel were setting EU policy toward Russia, even though it is the easternmost members that have the most at stake.

By commercial ties he means Europe's dependence on Russian gas and oil.

Who stands with the Poles and Ukrainians and Georgians? The Americans. The Europeans are taking the same attitude towards Russia re: Georgia as they did towards Germany in the Rhineland incident in 1936. Or Poland in 1939. It is not our problem. And if it is a problem who cares about the Georgians and besides there is nothing we can do (so true) or will do (truer still).

If France and Germany want to be de facto Russian allies I say it is time to dissolve NATO. If they want some one to come to their aid in case of war perhaps they could enlist Russian help. Or perhaps China would be interested. Or their buddies in the Islamic world. Axis of weasels indeed.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Well Calculated Moves

I was commenting at Winds of Change and some one asked if Bush had thought through his moves:

And, of course, it helps to think through what comes next.

Obviously given the moves and counter moves going on Russia has thought though its actions to the last decimal point and is advancing its position internationally.

1. Poland gets an anti-missile defense.
2. Ukraine is working to expel the Russians from the Black sea.
3. Ukraine and Poland get mutual defense pacts with the US.
4. Its international prestige declines hourly.
5. It has made abundantly clear that doing business with it is a very risky proposition.
6. Its population is declining 1/2% a year
7. Its birth rate is 1.4 - replacement rate is 2.1
8. It exports its women - brides and white slavery

And it is not over yet.

As Canaris said to a Spanish diplomat who asked a similar question about Germany's leader of the time: "Calculated nothing at all."

The next question of course is what happens when Russia cuts off Europe's gas and oil?

My take on all this - Russian oil output is on the decline with the expulsion of Western oil companies. It has to conquer or die. Germany 1939. Japan 1941.

My guess? Russia is bluffing and its bluff has been called.

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And of its arsenal of nuclear tipped missiles - how many will work when fired? As many as 30%? 50%? Or 10%?

When you bluff it is wisest not to let your opponent see your cards. i.e. had Russia pulled out after its initial depredations it might have kept its credibility intact. Now it has to show its cards or fold. Bush is calling their bluff.

Had Europe in the run up to WW2 stood firm on Czechoslovakia, or Austria resisted the Anschluss, a general war in Europe might well have been avoided. I believe that is the motivation behind current events. Once you let the little guys get picked off it then comes to a bigger war not too much later.

”Britain and France had to choose between war and dishonor. They chose dishonor. They will have war." Winston Churchill

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Russia Gives The US Ultimatum

The Russian Federation ha given the United States an ultimatum. It must choose between Georgia and Russia. The American answer was not long in coming.

Poland and the United States reached an agreement Thursday to base American missile interceptors in Poland, the prime minister said, going ahead with a plan that has angered Russia and threatened to escalate tensions with the region’s communist-era master.

Speaking in an interview televised on news channel TVN24, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the United States had agreed to help augment Poland’s defenses with Patriot missiles in exchange for placing 10 missile defense interceptors in the eastern European country.

“We have crossed the Rubicon,” he said, referring to U.S. consent to meet Poland’s demands.

Tusk said the agreement was initialed by negotiators late Thursday in Warsaw and includes a “mutual commitment” between the two nations — beyond that of NATO — to come to each other’s assistance in case of danger.

A mutual defense pact between Poland and America? This will definitely alter the correlation of forces between Russia and America. The ring is tightening.

Russia's behavior in Georgia has definitely altered the world scene. Not to Russia's advantage. Had they kept their agreement to pull out of Georgia I believe this deal wouldn't have happened. Russia has definitely overplayed its hand.

H/T Instapundit.

War Between Germany And Poland

Is it 1939 all over again? No. Far from it. What we have is a much milder variety. What we have is a nudist war.

On the one side white bottoms burn in the sun. On the other side conservative swimming trunk-wearers turn up their noses at the naked beachgoers.

Now a heated argument has broken out between the exhibitionist Germans and the prudish Poles.

For the last fifty years sun-loving Germans have been preserving their naturist traditions from Ahlbeck (Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) to Swinemünde.

But following the Schengen agreement in December 2007 the fence separating the German and Polish parts of the beach was removed.

Now German nudists are battling the Poles for their freedom to prance around naked in the sun.

"It's ridiculous" said Swinemündes minister Edward Zajac. And Anja (28) from Poland, who clearly think the German nudists are real swines, said: "It's horrible. We would never bathe naked - we are Catholic."

Evidently the integration of Europe is not going quite as swimmingly as is generally portrayed in the news.

According to the story some Poles are offended and some just want to watch. Let us hope the Poles and Germans can come together and put an end to this friction.

Cross Posted at Classical Values