The Good Stuff Is At 3:30

What Republicans believe starts at 3:30 (the stuff before it is pretty good too).

H/T Instapundit

Oil Wars

Iran is not happy about its border with Iraq so it has taken an oil well from Iraq.

Iranian troops crossed into Iraqi territory and seized an oil well that lies in a disputed area along the two countries' southern border, Iraq's deputy foreign minister said Friday.

The deputy minister, Mohammed Haj Mahmoud, said Iranian troops seized oil well No. 4 Thursday night in the al-Fakkah oil field, located in Maysan province about 200 miles (about 320 kilometers) southeast of Baghdad. The oil field is one of Iraq's largest.

Oil prices rose slightly after news of the incident.

The incursion by armed Iranians provided a dramatic display of the simmering border tensions between two nations, which have nonetheless grown close in recent years after a Shiite-led government rose to power in Iraq following the 2003 U.S.-led invasion.

Yeah. It looks like Iran and Iraq are growing closer.

I look forward to Mr. Obama's diplomacy in the matter. Maybe he can get a war going if he works the issues.

Human Development

I was looking at some different stuff by following a wiki trail and came across something called the Human Development Index. It is used to rate countries. It has the usual expected countries in the top. The USA comes in at #13 with a .956 score for instance.

What surprised me were the following countries that rated above .900.
#31 Kuwait 0.916
#33 Qatar 0.910
#35 United Arab Emirates 0.903

Compare them to Israel which ranks #27 with a 0.935 score.

So what got me started looking into this? I wanted to know how Iraq was doing. Iraq did not give sufficient information to be HDI rated. But there are some clues. Per capita income on a Purchasing Power Parity scale is $3,655. Not bad. On a strict dollar basis the number is $2,195.

We do know that a GDP per capita of around $3K to $5K a year is the region of transition. The environment becomes a priority. Self government becomes a priority. On a PPP scale Iraq is in the zone. What do they need to get on a solid footing (rather than a shaky footing that being in the transition zone implies)? About 10 years of 10% a year growth. Can it be done? Yes. Will it be done? It all depends on the resoluteness of their American ally. Can America be counted on? South Vietnam still casts a long shadow on that question.

The Future Of Warfare

Thomas Barnett gave this talk in 2005 when Iraq was falling apart. If you listen closely he discusses the mistake President Present is about to make in Afghanistan.

The video is quite funny and full of salty language. It is also about a half hour and worth every minute.

The bottom line: we need a procedure for fixing failed states. So far the effort has been ad hoc. It needs to be formalized.

You can get more Thomas Barnett at Thomas Barnett.

H/T glemieux at Talk Polywell

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Three Percenters

You may already know what an Oath Keeper is. But what is a Three Percenter?

Now, seeing the other tab and patch in the photo, you may ask “what is a three percenter?” The narrowest definition is that three percenters are hard-line gun owners who are done backing up and will not comply with more infringements of their right to bear arms. A broader definition would be that they are hard-line Americans who are done backing up and will not comply with further infringement of any of their rights. It also alludes to the three percent of the colonists who took to the field against the King during the Revolution, and the estimation that at least three percent of modern Americans will actively fight, if it comes to it, to preserve liberty. Read this essay for more explanation.

Oath Keepers and Three Percenters are separate groups, but it is not a surprise to see people who consider themselves both an Oath Keeper and a Three Percenter. If you read the supplied links you will see why.

While we Oath Keepers have a specialized mission of outreach to current serving, focused on the oath and on refusing to obey unlawful orders, there’s lots of common ground and shared commitment to the Republic among both groups. Go here to read what the Sipsey Street blog has to say about that.

Naturally the Three Percenters have a blog.

Backyard Conservative discusses Clarence Page and why Clarence thinks we are the enemy.

Clarence Page refers to us as "enemies". You know, usually we conservatives reserve that kind of language for those from overseas who are trying to kill us. But the Left, and let's include Page in that appellation now, calls citizens who object to corruption and criminality--including underage prostitution-- as "enemies". Let us note, a majority of Americans support stopping the funding, and of those who have been closely following the news, 80% recoil in revulsion at ACORN's activities.

But for Clarence Page and many on the Left, it's not my fellow Americans, it's my neighbors as enemies:

Yet, conservatives underestimate their successes in framing this debate long before Hannah put on her hot pants. Most ACORN coverage in major media has been overwhelmingly negative, according to a recently released study by Peter Dreier, a professor of politics at Occidental College, and Christopher R. Martin, a professor of journalism at University of Northern Iowa. Of the 647 newspaper and broadcast news stories about ACORN that they found in 2007 and 2008, most were on allegations of massive voter registration fraud against the organization.

And yet it took video to actually bring them down.

Clarence, I'd watch out if I was you. Your enemies are trained, armed and dangerous. And a lot of them have recent combat experience. In fact a lot of them will be coming home from Iraq in the next year or two. Do you really want to incite a civil war Mr. Page? You might want to look into the history of The Battle of Athens, Tennessee.

Two days before the election the GIs ran an advertisement in the Post-Athenian: “These young men fought and won a war for good government. They know what it takes and what it means to have a clean government—and they are energetic enough, honest enough and intelligent enough to give us good, clean government.” A couple of pages farther on, the Democrats had their say: “Look at the facts—and you will vote for the Democratic ticket. The campaign fight is as old as the hills—it is the story of the outs wanting back in.”

The next day, the paper reported that veterans from Blount County had offered to come help watch the polls. Mansfield began building an army of his own. “It has come to my attention,” he announced, “that certain elements intend to create a disturbance at and around the polls. … In order to see that law and order is maintained … I will have several hundred deputies patrolling the county.” He hired all of them from outside the county, some from out of state. They would crowd inside every voting precinct. And they would be armed.

August 1, 1946: Election Day found voters lined up early in the largest turnout in local history. Joining them were some three hundred of Sheriff Mansfield’s special deputies. Trouble began early. At 9:30 A.M. Walter Ellis, a legally appointed GI representative at the first precinct in the courthouse, was arrested and jailed for protesting irregularities.

There is way more. The short version? The veterans got into a fight with the Democrat Machine (sound familiar?) and routed them by force of arms.

Does Clarence - and the rest of the Democrat crew - really want to get into a fight with people determined to restore honest government? We shall see won't we?

Iran Challenges The US Navy

This is a short history of the war between the US and Iran in the mid 1980s. Iran took a drubbing they are still smarting from twenty years later.

In the 1980s, the United States faced significant security challenges in the Persian Gulf. The Islamic Revolution in Iran had replaced Washington’s ally, the Shah, with a decidedly hostile regime in Tehran. In September 1980, Iraqi president Saddam Hussein seized upon the chaos in Iran by sending Iraqi forces to capture the oil resources located across the border in southern Iran.

That is the opening paragraph. The article is most interesting and follows the give and take of the war. May I suggest a read by those of you interested in recent military history?

We Are On Our Own

The story of the Revolution is being written by the women.

I don’t know where this uprising is leading. I do know some police units are wavering. That commander talking about his family was not alone. There were other policemen complaining about the unruly Basijis. Some security forces just stood and watched. “All together, all together, don’t be scared,” the crowd shouted.

I also know that Iran’s women stand in the vanguard. For days now, I’ve seen them urging less courageous men on. I’ve seen them get beaten and return to the fray. “Why are you sitting there?” one shouted at a couple of men perched on the sidewalk on Saturday. “Get up! Get up!”

Another green-eyed woman, Mahin, aged 52, staggered into an alley clutching her face and in tears. Then, against the urging of those around her, she limped back into the crowd moving west toward Freedom Square. Cries of “Death to the dictator!” and “We want liberty!” accompanied her.

There were people of all ages. I saw an old man on crutches, middle-aged office workers and bands of teenagers. Unlike the student revolts of 2003 and 1999, this movement is broad.

“Can’t the United Nations help us?” one woman asked me. I said I doubted that very much. “So,” she said, “we are on our own.”

The world is watching, and technology is connecting, and the West is sending what signals it can, but in the end that is true.

The Iranian women are fighting and dying. About all I can do from here is pass on news that I find and wish the people of Iran better days.

You all know where I stand and have stood since 2003 and before.

I SUPPORT DEMOCRACY IN IRAN

Just as



H/T Instapundit

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Siemens Bribes Governments For Contracts

Evidently it is not just Senate seats that are up for sale. Siemens AG apparently paid for contracts. The problem with such schemes is that the contracts go to the highest bidder. And now you know one of the reasons government costs so much and accomplishes so little.

Siemens’ scam ran like a suspense novel. “The SEC's complaint alleges that between March 12, 2001, and Sept. 30, 2007, Siemens created elaborate payment schemes to conceal the nature of its corrupt payments, and the company's inadequate internal controls allowed the conduct to flourish. Siemens made thousands of payments to third parties in ways that obscured the purpose for, and the ultimate recipients of, the money,” the commission stated.

“Employees obtained large amounts of cash from cash desks, which were sometimes transported in suitcases across international borders for bribery. The authorizations for payments were placed on post-it notes and later removed to eradicate any permanent record. Siemens used numerous slush funds, off-books accounts maintained at unconsolidated entities, and a system of business consultants and intermediaries to facilitate the corrupt payments.”

“Siemens made at least 4,283 payments, totaling approximately $1.4 billion, to bribe government officials in return for business to Siemens around the world. In addition, Siemens made approximately 1,185 separate payments to third parties totaling approximately $391 million, which were not properly controlled and were used, at least in part, for such illicit purposes as commercial bribery and embezzlement.”

I wonder how much business the state of Illinois did with those mopes?

What is Siemens involved in?

Osram Sylvania - That would be government mandated CFLs
Financial Services - I'm sure that sector has been in the news lately
Health Care - Obama is big on increasing government involvement in that

Here is a more detailed look:

Siemens AG (NYSE:SI) is one of the largest global electronics and engineering companies with reported worldwide sales of $91.5 billion in fiscal 2004. Founded more than 150 years ago, the company is a leader in the areas of Medical, Power, Automation and Control, Transportation, Information and Communications, Lighting, Building Technologies, Water Technologies and Services and Home Appliances. With its U.S. corporate headquarters in New York City, Siemens in the USA has sales of $16.6 billion and employs 70,000 people throughout all 50 states and Puerto Rico. Thirteen of Siemens' worldwide businesses are based in the United States. With its global headquarters in Munich, Siemens AG and its subsidiaries employ 430,000 people in 192 countries.

Interesting. However, even more interesting is what Siemens is doing in Illinois.

Headquartered in Buffalo Grove, Illinois, Siemens Building Technologies, Inc. is one of 14 Siemens operating companies in the United States and is a leading single-source provider of cost-effective facility performance solutions for the comfort, life safety and security of some of the most technically advanced buildings in the world. In North America, Siemens Building Technologies employs 8,000 people and provides local service from more than 100 locations coast-to-coast. Worldwide, the company has 33,000 employees and operates in 125 countries.

I couldn't find anything on State of Illinois buildings that use Siemens building controls. If any one knows anything give me a heads up.

EDN Magazine has a few more details.

The charges were laid out by the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission), which alleges that Siemens paid bribes on such widespread transactions as the design and construction of metro transit lines in Venezuela, power plants in Israel, and refineries in Mexico. Siemens also used bribes to obtain business developing mobile phone networks in Bangladesh; national identity cards in Argentina; and medical devices in Vietnam, China, and Russia, according to the SEC's complaint. The commission further alleged that Siemens paid kickbacks to Iraqi ministries in connection with sales of power stations and equipment to Iraq under the United Nations Oil for Food Program.

According to the list they ran a clean shop in the USA and did most of their dirty work elsewhere. Nice list of places where the business practices are particularly corrupt though.

Wait a minute. Iraqi power stations and equipment? Wasn't Tony Rezko involved in that? Why yes he was.

Federal authorities are investigating an Iraqi power plant deal involving Antoin "Tony" Rezko, a former top fund-raiser for Gov. Blagojevich charged with defrauding Illinois taxpayers.

Investigators want to talk to Iraq's jailed former electricity minister, Aiham Alsammarae, about how Rezko landed the potentially lucrative contract, a source familiar with the probe told the Chicago Sun-Times.

Alsammarae, who holds dual U.S.-Iraqi citizenship and has a house in Oak Brook, helped Rezko get the deal, another source said.

Rezko and others in the venture were to own the plant and sell electricity back to the Iraqis, but the Iraqi government still was to pay a substantial portion of construction costs, that source added.

The contract, negotiated in 2004, no longer is in effect. It is unknown how much money, if any, Rezko made.

Alsammarae, 55, attended the Illinois Institute of Technology with Rezko in the late 1970s and early 1980s and went on to own an engineering firm in Downers Grove.

In 2003, Alsammarae returned to his native Iraq to lead efforts to help rebuild its war-torn power grid. By January 2005, Rezko's Rezmar Corp. had secured its contract to build a 200- to 300-megawatt plant in the northern Iraqi city of Chamchamal.

Since then, Alsammarae has been arrested and convicted of corruption by Iraq's Commission on Public Integrity.

I wonder if they bought any Siemens equipment?

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Iraq - The SOF Agreement

SOF stand for the Status Of Forces. It is the agreement between the US and the Iraqis about how US forces in Iraq will conduct themselves once the UN mandate covering US troops expires. Iraq the Model has some interesting news not found elsewhere.

After the Iraqi cabinet voted in approval, Iraq’s Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari and U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker met in Baghdad to sign the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA).

Both diplomats hailed the event as a “historic” one — not an overstatement as their meeting was the fruit of many months of deliberations and negotiations.
Reportedly, SOFA has a sister document whose details are yet to be made public. Radio Sawa reported that Zebari and Crocker signed “another long-term strategic agreement, which the U.S. ambassador said would shape relations between the two countries in all areas for years to come.” It’s actually surprising that there’s no mention of this second document anywhere in the media.

Now isn't that interesting. There is a Times Online article about the SOF agreement that says noting about the second document. I wonder why?

Half Baked

A commenter named baked at Just One Minute was trying to explain ∅bama's position on Iraq and the surge vs McCain's position on Iraq and the surge. He wasn't doing a very good job so Charlie(Colorado) cleared it up for him.

So, baked, you're saying you prefer someone who got it wrong once and changed his mind to someone who got it wrong, changed his mind, changed his mind again, said he didn't change his mind, said claiming he'd changed his mind was a distraction, changed his mind again, said he didn't mean what he'd said, changed his mind again, and finally changed his mind and said that even though he was wrong before he was right to be wrong because being wrong wasn't right.

The next clarifying statement I expect from ∅bama on the subject is "I've said all along..."

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Ask The Iraqis

In a posted opinion piece "Biden pick shows lack of confidence" a pundit suggests that Biden brings a lot to the table in terms of national security credibility.

Biden brings a lot to the table. An expert on national security, the Delaware senator voted in 2002 to authorize military intervention in Iraq but has since become a vocal critic of the conflict. He won praise for a plan for peace in Iraq that would divide the country along ethnic lines.

The Iraqis seem to have a different opinion of the plan.

BAGHDAD – Senator Joe Biden may be one of the only U.S. politicians that can get Iraq's feuding Sunni, Shi'ite and Kurdish politicians to agree. But not in a good way.

Across racial and religious boundaries, Iraqi politicians on Saturday bemoaned Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama's choice of running mate, known in Iraq as the author of a 2006 plan to divide the country into ethnic and sectarian enclaves.

"This choice of Biden is disappointing, because he is the creator of the idea of dividing Iraq," Salih al-Mutlaq, head of National Dialogue, one of the main Sunni Arab blocs in parliament, told Reuters.

"We rejected his proposal when he announced it, and we still reject it. Dividing the communities and land in such a way would only lead to new fighting between people over resources and borders. Iraq cannot survive unless it is unified, and dividing it would keep the problems alive for a long time."

And yet he is supposed to shore up Obama's lack of foreign policy credibility. That hope seems rather incredible to me.

H/T Instapundit and Sara

Cross Posted at Classical Values

The al-Ameriki Tribe

So I'm reading the comments at Gateway Pundit and I come across a commenter who says I should do a bit of research on the al-Ameriki tribe. Interesting. So I did a search. And what did I come up with? A wiky entry to start. It is short. So here it is:

The Al-Ameriki tribe is a name (properly, a nickname) given by native Iraqis to United States soldiers and other American personnel occupying Iraq.

That is a start. Perhaps we can find out more.

The wiki suggests this Phil Carter article in Slate. It was written in Nov. of 2007 when things were still looking grim in Iraq. The situation was improving but there was no certainty that a corner had been turned. So lets have a look.

Political reconciliation efforts have produced qualified successes in Anbar, Baghdad, and Diyala. Our security work complemented these political deals by rewarding the sheiks who worked with us, inducing many to stop actively or passively supporting the insurgency. These deals represent the increasing pragmatism of Sunni leaders who realize that the Shiite state is a fait accompli, and they must therefore do what they can to reconcile with each other and with the Americans (who they call the "al-Ameriki tribe") in order to survive.

We have tribal status in Iraq. Interesting.

Michael Yon has more from July of 2007.

The big news on the streets today is that the people of Baqubah are generally ecstatic, although many hold in reserve a serious concern that we will abandon them again. For many Iraqis, we have morphed from being invaders to occupiers to members of a tribe. I call it the “al Ameriki tribe,” or “tribe America.”

I’ve seen this kind of progression in Mosul, out in Anbar and other places, and when I ask our military leaders if they have sensed any shift, many have said, yes, they too sense that Iraqis view us differently. In the context of sectarian and tribal strife, we are the tribe that people can—more or less and with giant caveats—rely on.

Most Iraqis I talk with acknowledge that if it was ever about the oil, it’s not now. Not mostly anyway. It clearly would have been cheaper just to buy the oil or invade somewhere easier that has more. Similarly, most Iraqis seem now to realize that we really don’t want to stay here, and that many of us can’t wait to get back home. They realize that we are not resolved to stay, but are impatient to drive down to Kuwait and sail away. And when they consider the Americans who actually deal with Iraqis every day, the Iraqis can no longer deny that we really do want them to succeed. But we want them to succeed without us. We want to see their streets are clean and safe, their grass is green, and their birds are singing. We want to see that on television. Not in person. We don’t want to be here. We tell them that every day. It finally has settled in that we are telling the truth.

Now that all those realizations and more have settled in, the dynamics here are changing in palpable ways.

There is more in his report about how the "insurgency" essentially defeated itself. Insurgencies typically spout high ideals while recruiting criminals. They have to. Criminals are used to evading the government. The question always is: can the criminals be disciplined? Will they follow orders? Will the criminals who have advanced in the organization give good orders? Will they follow the plan? Or will they revert to criminal depredations with the increased power that being part of a shadow government gives them?

In the Iraq insurgency the criminals got the upper hand. It has been their downfall.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

History - The Prequel

I just came across a most interesting bit of information. Despite a whole host of folks, including Andrew Sullivan, coming out with the idea that if Iraq is not yet won, a win is likely, a book has recently come out which says all is lost. Defeat is at hand, and well deserved. One must remember, however, that book publishers operate on a longer schedule than journalists and bloggers. And the book, written by a senior correspondent for the Guardian, which is just a few months old, Defeat: Why America and Britain Lost Iraq,is already 40% off at Amazon.

Would I recommend this book? Absolutely. And not just because I get a cut from every one sold through here. I have other better reasons. Now I have to tell you that I have not read the book. So how is a reasonable recommendation even possible? Well the reviews were all gushingly positive so there is that. But that is not it. The real reason I suggest this book is the same reason I have a copy of The Weather Conspiracy: The Coming of the New Ice Age. It will be good to refer to when people start trying to overdose you with conventional wisdom. Sometimes the odds makers don't even know what the real odds are. Which brings up another point. Has any one noticed a change yet in editorial policy or reporting policy re: Iraq from the Guardian? What are the odds?

Cross Posted at Classical Values

I Link

I haven't linked to Andew Sullivan in ages. Since after he lost his cahones about the War in Iraq. Well I'm linking today. And to what? This article on the changed situation in Iraq, suggested by Jennifer Rubin of Commentary. Via Instapundit. I'm sure this is white hot because in some respects it represents Andrew's return to sanity. We will see if I can shed some light on it from a different angle. Or from the same angle. Depending.

Here is what Andrew Said that got him a link:

Petraeus deserves the lion's share of the credit; luck and time and the self-defeating nihilism of the Jihadists have helped. But Bush and McCain equally merit points for pursuing the surge, even though the metrics pointed to failure. Obama needs to capitalize on these gains, not dismiss them.

Props where they are due. That is an astounding turn around for Andrew. He finally gets it. Even if the War was a mistake a self governing, independent, prosperous Iraq is a good thing.

Now what about Obama? Boy, is the Good Judgement Man™ ever in trouble. He has been talking defeat in Iraq since forever. Whoops. McCain on the other hand has the distinction that, despite the unpopularity of his position, he was right. I predict a pivot - "I never knew how really vile those jihadis were. And I repudiate them for their obvious misjudgment. I have always been in favor of good relations with the Government of Iraq and no Republican is going to stand in the way of my achieving that goal. There are a number of companies in Chicago that would be excellent help in the effort to rebuild Iraq and they will have all my support." Aside to staff: " &#(*^@!~& Axelrod, where are my G-d Damn Tickets to Iraq? "

You know, I don't think Barry is going to have a cake walk.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

It Is A Shame

Some one in this thread said: "our products aren’t competitive"

I said:

A real shame exports are growing at a rate of about 2.8% a year. It is a shame manufacturing is booming. It is a shame Germans are moving factories to America.

It is a shame the Iraqis are getting a handle on Iraq. It is a shame they are holding national elections in October. It is a shame their economy is growing 5% a year.

It is a shame oil prices are up giving a boost to the sale of hybrids and high mileage vehicles.

It is a shame unemployment in the “worst economy since the depression” is only around 5%. It is a shame it only grew .9%. It is a shame that higher growth is expected in the coming quarters. Did I mention that Germans are building factories in America?

Considering the doofus we have as President it is a shame things are going as well as they are.

H/T Instapundit

Commenter DKK adds: It's a shame we are exporting Buicks TO China and Toyota is going to start building cars here for export.

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Joke Of The Day 16 May 008

From Manufacturing Business Technology.

Successive EU enlargements, the Union's growing reputation as a global defence and security actor, and its continued strong economic performance have also become key reasons for India's increased interest in Europe.

Let me see. They couldn't handle the Yugoslavia problem in their own back yard. They depend on USA logistics to maintain troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. And unemployment in France and Germany has been in the 10% range for many years. Other than the value of the Euro what have they got?

Guess Who Said This

Try this on for size:

As for the question of whether the surge is working, I can only state what I witnessed: U.N. staff and those of non-governmental organizations seem to feel they have the right set of circumstances to attempt to scale up their programs. And when I asked the troops if they wanted to go home as soon as possible, they said that they miss home but feel invested in Iraq. They have lost many friends and want to be a part of the humanitarian progress they now feel is possible.

It seems to me that now is the moment to address the humanitarian side of this situation. Without the right support, we could miss an opportunity to do some of the good we always stated we intended to do.

Who said it? Angelina Jolie

H/T Insty

Burn Clinic In Iraq Needs Help

Medical supplies needed:

Medihoney anti-bacterial cream from:

Medihoney Pty. Ltd
POB 66
Richlands QLD
Australia
1 -800-006-334
Int tel +61 7 3712 820

also:

Kerlix
Xeroform Petroleum Dressing
Non-adhesive dressing
Chucks
Tylenol/paracetamol (Clild Infant and Adult)
Motrin/Ibuprofin (Clild Infant and Adult)
IV Line Sets
Benadryl (Clild and Adult)

Non-medical supplies

Flip-Flops
Sneakers
Clothes
Toothbrushes
Toothpaste
Toys
Stuffed Animals
Socks
Crayons and Coloring Books

Do not send cash or checks
Just send the materials asked for to:

Jimmy Compton
SOC
CSC Scania
APO AE 09331

e-mail for more information
jimmycompton --at-- gmail --dot-- com

You can find out more about CSC (Convoy Supply Center) Scania at Global Security

Camp Scania is home to a free clinic run by the 1st Battalion, 108th Armor Regiment, 48th Brigade Combat Team. The clinic, which operates three days a week, has become widely known as a premier location for the treatment of burn injuries, and some patients travel up to 75 miles to visit the small, trailer-housed aid center in southern Iraq. In many cases, Iraqi hospitals lack the supply of painkillers and antibiotics and other equipment that the clinic offers.

The video link was sent to me by J. Ogershok. I posted something he wrote in December of 2006 at Free Will.

Is The US Tooling Up For War With Iran?

There is a whole lot to cover on this subject so I'm going to give mostly links and let you make up your own mind. Be sure to read the comments at the links provided as they tend to add information or present countervailing views.

Fleet Positions for War.

We believe the only successful exit strategy from Iraq travels a road through Iran. In general we subscribe to a theory put forth by Stratfor that events will build up towards the brink of war before a peaceful resolution is possible. We don't necessarily believe that is how it has to be, rather we believe that is how our current leadership believes it has to be. Part of that strategy includes the buildup of rhetoric, the shuffling of resources, and the preparation in Iraq for a military action against Iran. We observe these events taking place. Much thanks to Yankee Sailor for his collections regarding the developing time line.

Think Long and Hard as You Contemplate What This Means

There has been a political split in the Pentagon since 2005, when those who wanted to move forward under the cooperative model as opposed to the unilateral model for military action were able to shift the Pentagon position through the release of official strategic papers. Under Gates, the Pentagon has tried to shift to a cooperative phase from what has been a unilateral phase of military action. The cooperative approach is championed by Rice, Gates, and people like Adm. Fallon. Many neo-conservatives, which unfortunately includes a bunch of big blue Navy folks I won't name specifically, form up the unilateral military action side.

Money quote from the piece:

Admiral William Fallon shakes his head slowly, and his eyes say, These guys [Iran] have no idea how much worse it could get for them. I am the reasonable one.

Building a Case for War in Iran - Part 2

News continues to roll in that the United States may be nearing a decision to strike Iran. In my previous installment, I discussed the storm of tough talk currently unleashed from Washington. In this installment I’ll lay out some of the other events in the region in recent weeks.

First, an intriguing report was published alleging that Washington authorized the execution and funding of a covert offensive against Iran in recent weeks.

Six weeks ago, President Bush signed a secret finding authorizing a covert offensive against the Iranian regime that, according to those familiar with its contents, “unprecedented in its scope.”

Key graph:

All this costs money, which in turn must be authorized by Congress, or at least a by few witting members of the intelligence committees. That has not proved a problem. An initial outlay of $300 million to finance implementation of the finding has been swiftly approved with bipartisan support, apparently regardless of the unpopularity of the current war and the perilous condition of the U.S. economy.

Lee Smith at Michael Totten's writes: Hezbollah's Endgame? Pt. 2

David Wurmser, formerly Vice President Cheney's Middle East adviser, writes in to comment on Iran's role in the Beirut crisis.

“Iran has suffered some pretty serious defeats in Iraq, foremost is that the Shiites there kind of turned on Iran. May they not need to pull back and focus on their role as the champion of the Shiites right now, even at the cost of compromising their efforts to jump the Sunni-Shiite divide? They may actually be in no better a shape among Lebanon's Shiites as they are among Iraq's. Second, there were these really odd nasty exchanges between Zawahiri and Iran, which may have been born of Iran's desire right now to solidify its own role as Shiite champion."

Omar Fadhil of Iraq the Model comments at Pajamas Media. Iranian-Made Rocket Discovered Near Basra Alarms Iraqis

The Iraqi minister of defense pushed the debate with the Iranians over their provision of weapons to Shia militias one more step on Monday. Minister Abdul Qadir Obeidi indirectly confronted the Iranians, without naming them, with new findings that prove their involvement in the arming of Shia militias.

On Monday, state-owned al-Sabah published a statement by the minister in which he spoke of the capture of a certain type of rocket that was never found in militia-held caches until now:

Defense minister Abdul Qadir Mohammed Obeidi revealed that army troops found a 200-mm ground-to-ground rocket manufactured in 2007 during a search operation by the troops north of Basra. Obeidi told al-Sabah in an exclusive interview that, under international laws and norms, this kind of rocket can be traded only with the approval of parliaments and is used only at times of extreme necessity during wars … and wondered how this rocket entered the country. Obeidi added that this rocket can be launched only from a special platform and by specialized crews.

From what I read in Iraq’s two biggest newspapers, it seems that the government is trying to step up the rhetoric against Iranian interference in Iraq and to induce uproar among the Iraqi public.

Noah Pollak.

Hezbollah’s thug-in-chief, Hassan Nasrallah, addressed Lebanon today. What he said is not promising. You can read the entire transcript here, but it’s not necessary. The following snippet tells you everything you need to know:

I said . . . that any hand that reaches for the resistance [i.e., Hezbollah] and its arms will be cut off. Israel tried that in the July War, and we cut its hand off. We do not advise you to try us. Whoever is going to target us will be targeted by us. Whoever is going to shoot at us will be shot by us.

Captain Ed.

Iraqi soldiers have begun evacuating families from portions of Sadr City, a sign that a large offensive will start shortly against the Mahdi Army militia that have long controlled the sector of Baghdad. Two stadiums have been secured for sheltering the evacuees as the government of Nouri al-Maliki attempts to break Moqtada al-Sadr’s last stronghold and end mortar attacks on the Green Zone. Maliki also wants to end Iran’s influence in Iraq, which caused Iran to cut off security talks with Maliki and the US:

Gateway Pundit has: A Gift From Tehran-- ARMED HEZBOLLAH THUGS Roam Beirut ...Update: 1 Dead- Saudis Warn Hezbollah

Beirut Spring posted this photo of a bridge banner in Beirut that reads: "A gift from the municipality of Tehran to the righteous, resisting Lebanese people."
Yup. That sums it up.

All in all I'd say something was up. Namely a show down with Iran. I'd take the movement of the fleet as a sign of readiness for contingencies as opposed to the US initiating an attack. The question is: what will the Iranian response be to the dismantling of their proxies?

Update 09 May 008 1217z

Hezbollah's Subtle Takeover

Hezbollah has taken control of the media in Lebanon, and their propaganda campaign has already begun. They are currently presenting themselves as liberators of Lebanon, and allies of the Lebanese Army against a corrupt government supported by pro-government snipers and brigrands.

Hezbollah's militant takeover of Beirut and its systematic destruction of the authority of the state and freedom of the press suggests a sophisticated and planned campaign to take power. There is no hiding the violence Hezbollah used to seize Beirut and cut it off from the rest of the country. But as their media campaign is already showing, Hezbollah is employing subtle and sophisticated mechanisms to take over the rest of Lebanon. All news which could be construed as negative behaviors, such as the blatant destruction and corruption of Lebanese institutions, is hidden beneath a Hezbollah-dominated media blackout.

No one knows if Hezbollah is currently occupying government building, re-routing the telecommunications networks, placing weapons in areas they could not gain access to before, and more. If Hezbollah wins this battle, this information will never be made public.

Instapundit says:

I GET AN EMAIL NEWSLETTER from an oil trader and today it includes this tidbit: "In an interesting twist of OPEC news – in the folder titled 'Adequate Supply' – Iran has chartered an armada of supertankers to act as floating storage for as many as 28 million barrels of crude oil that is backing up on them. Analysts are blaming worldwide refineries yet to recover from maintenance programs. It’s not the first time that Iran has had trouble finding buyers; they temporarily floated 20 million barrels in 2006. No, I can’t explain this in light of record oil prices and continual cries for more release of OPEC crude oil. "

U.S. crude stocks are up, too. This is unlikely to be the case, but here's a thought: If I were, say, the United States government, and I anticipated military action in the mideast that might interrupt oil supplies, I wouldn't want to stockpile directly because that would be a tipoff. But if I manipulated markets into running up stocks, I wouldn't have to. . . . Nah. They're not that smart.

Note that 28 million barrels of oil is $3 bn dollars worth at current prices give or take. I wonder if Iran is expecting a strike on their refineries or oil fields?

Many links from Instapundit

Cross Posted at Classical Values

Surrender Or The Puppy Dies

Megan McArdle is discussing the failure (or lack thereof) of the media when it comes to the John Yoo memos on the legality of torture for American troops facing irregular combatants. The comments are extensive. With the usual Bush is Hitler slant. I have a little different opinion.

When people don't even know (so many commenting on the article) what John Yoo even wrote about, it is obvious that even for stories people commenting there are interested in, the media has been dishing up moldy slops.

Did Yoo shred the Constitution? How could he? He doesn't make policy.

What was Yoo asked to do? To research the applicable laws, national and international, dealing with torture and irregular warfare.

And what is the number one rule dealing with irregular warfare? Irregular warriors can be summarily shot after a military court. And how rigorous does that court need to be? It can be done on a battlefield.

Why is that a rule of war? Because irregular warfare that does not conform to the rules of irregular warfare endangers non-combatants.

Now if you can kill them on the spot why would torture be out of bounds?

Now that may be a true legal opinion. It says nothing about whether it is wise. It is obvious that our military leaders consider it unwise, despite the legality, because that is not the practice of our military.

Why don't our troops torture and execute as a matter of policy if they have the legal power? It impedes surrender. And we want them to surrender. We want easy fights - not fights to the death. We want to beat them not kill them. A man who changes sides is more valuable in terms of victory than a dead man. Dead men don't change sides.

Now in all this uproar over Yoo has any one of note covered the facts well enough so that at least the majority of the commenters to Megan's piece get it?

I see no evidence of that in those comments.

In this war which side is known as the torturing side? Which side executes civilians at random as policy? Which side is notorious for using human shields?

So for all the fools screaming Yoo, Yoo, Yoo, Yoo, and Bush too, why no outrage at the random mass murder of civilians as a military tactic?

Because the other side is using a tactic well known. It is: give up or the puppy dies.

And the puppy murderers are the friends of so many of Megan's commenters. Not to mention the leftys in general.

H/T Instapundit

Cross Posted at Classical Values