Foreign Policy 101?

Foreign policy advice for a new president from Michael Totten makes for a bracing read. Here's the short version for those of you in a hurry:

In essence: Get real about Russia, finish off ISIS in Syria, back the Kurds to the hilt, downgrade relations with Turkey, repair our relations with Israel and crack down hard again on Iran. World peace won’t break out if you do these things, but we’ll be a lot better off than if you don’t.

All this advice is based on one simple principle—you reward your friends and punish your enemies. It’s the first rule of foreign policy, one that has been with us since antiquity and will survive until the end of time. Presidents who behave as though this rule doesn’t apply to them are as doomed to fail in foreign policy as rocket scientists who ignore gravity. Hubristically declaring that it would not do “stupid sh*t” like its predecessors, the Obama administration flipped this rule on its head over and over again—with Israel, with Russia, with Iran, and with Turkey—with disastrous results every time.

So turn things around. Again: Reward your friends and punish your enemies. Tattoo that rule on the back of your eyelids if you have to.

Quote of the Day: Self-Debunking Middle East Policy?

My colleague Alessandra called this long ago: Obama's Middle East foreign policy debacles would induce the Saudis and Israelis to work more and more closely, even flat out openly, against Iran.  A common fear of a regional nuclear hegemon makes strange bedfellows?  Desperate times call for desperate measures.

There's also this observation (my emphasis in boldface):

Obama came into office convinced that U.S. influence in the Middle East, as well as regional stability, revolved around one problem: the plight of the Palestinians. Resolving their conflict with Israel was the president’s top foreign policy from his first day in office. His belief that the U.S. was too close to Israel and that by establishing more daylight between the two allies, he could help broker an end to the long war between Jews and Arabs. To accomplish that goal, he picked fights with Israel, undermined its diplomatic position, and did his best to pressure the Israelis into making concessions that would please the Palestinians. The failure of this policy was foreordained since the Palestinians are still unable to recognize the legitimacy of a Jewish state no matter where its borders are drawn.

But the events of the past six years have also shown that his focus on the Palestinians as the source of the problem was a disastrous mistake. The Arab spring, civil war in Syria, the rise of ISIS, and the Iranian nuclear threat proved that the Palestinians had little or nothing to do with the most serious problems in the region. Indeed, by forcing Israel and the Saudis to cooperate against Iran with little attention being paid to the dead end peace process with the Palestinians, Obama has effectively debunked the core idea at the heart of his foreign policy.

Awesome: Rube Goldberg's Passover Seder

Thoughts on Bibi's Return and Its Ramifications

I ended up wanting to excerpt too much, so let me suggest that you read the whole thing as a jumping off point for analysis.  More off-the-cuff nonsense after the fold.

Supermoon, Solar Eclipse, Vernal Equinox, March Madness, Starbucks Race Hustling, and Netanyahu Derangement Syndrome All In One Day!

Well, I guess the only thing I can do as commentary is post this Onion story. 

It's been a lunatic day, in which learning that Starbucks is actually encouraging its baristas to engage customers in discussions about race relations wasn't even the craziest thing that happened.  The inevitable backlash has, admittedly, provided its own form of Schadenfreudelicious entertainment. (Of course the incomparable Iowahawk has a quip.)

Elsewhere, my head is spinning from all the post-Israeli election howling from various people and quarters and media outlets.  I really can't take any more of it, because all the yelling and yammering has coalesced into one wordless collective shriek.  Maybe later I'll try to consider the fallout and talk about foreign policy again, but for now let's just call the furious reactions together "Netanyahu Derangement Syndrome" and let it go at that, mmmkay?

Finally, let me add: THANK GOD March Madness has finally started.  It's the only madness right now that makes any damn sense at all.  

(PS: Go, Anybody-But-Duke!)

Bibi Got (Come)Back

Well, whaddyaknow?  Several folks I know are calling it "a St. Patrick's Day miracle."

Nobody puts Bibi in a corner.

The Best Ad of the Israeli Election?

Apparently Netanyahu is not doing very well in the polls, but I have to say that I really liked this ad.  I thought it was clever, funny, and made its point without being nasty.

Yale Chaplain Resigns After Comments On Anti-Semitism

Turns out that telling Jews that the best antidote to anti-Semitism is pressuring Israel didn't go over too well.  The responses are also worth a look; I'll give you an example (by William Russell Mead of Bard College):

"No, the best antidote to anti-Semitism would be a realization among cretins that 'the Jews' are a group of people with very different opinions and desires, that they do not act in concert, and that individual Yale students, for example, of Jewish descent who are American citizens have zero responsibility for any policies of the government of Israel. Anti-Semitism is like racism: most racists don’t think of themselves as racists and most anti-Semites similarly don’t recognize their own twisted prejudice. Perhaps the chaplain at Yale should reflect on the passage in which a well known first century Jewish rabbi urged his followers to take the log out of their own eye before trying to take the splinter out of someone else’s."

Israel Rallies Behind Netanyahu

Current polling has some 90% (!) of Israelis supporting Netanyahu.

Meanwhile Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have basically lined up against Hamas and so aligned themselves with Israel.

Support at home and from the usually hostile neighbors will give Israel a lot more leeway to act. The New York Times reports on this and complains that Egypt, et al's choice is making everything worse by impeding a ceasefire.  You know, ceasefires would probably be more feasible if Kerry weren't an idiot, Hamas didn't consistently break them by refusing to stop firing rockets, and - let's be brutally honest - they didn't help the aggressor.

Nerd News: San Diego State Students Mix It Up Over Gaza

What I want to highlight is the fact that there is significant, thoughtful pushback from other students.

"U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry ruined everything"

This open disgust comes from Haaretz, Israel's version of the New York Times.  Looks like more smart diplomacy in action.

This sums it up:

Kerry's recent efforts to negotiate a ceasefire have come to nothing in part because his proposals treat Hamas as a legitimate organization with legitimate security needs, as opposed to a group listed by Kerry's State Department as a terror organization devoted to the physical elimination of one of America's closest allies. 

Astronaut's-Eye View: Gaza From the International Space Station

My saddest photo yet. From #ISS we can actually see explosions and rockets flying over #Gaza & #Israel pic.twitter.com/jNGWxHilSy
— Alexander Gerst (@Astro_Alex) July 23, 2014

Tunnel Vision: Digging Trenches in Military History

A history professor at the University of St. Andrews takes a look in light of the current conflict in Gaza and Hamas tunnels.

UPDATE: It keeps getting worse the more we dig into the topic.

Down the Rabbit Hole: Hamas Tunnels

Infrastructure.

The Middle East Friendship Chart

Obviously it's reductive and imperfect (where is Jordan?  I didn't see Lebanon either), but this chart is an interesting attempt to begin to think about the complexity of relationships in the Middle East.  I kind of want to add "Frenemies" as another relationship option and "Kurds/Kurdistan" as another player.  Note, though, how ISIS is pretty much hated by everybody.

Cartoon Commentary on Hamas in Gaza

As Israel-bashing in the media and commentariat reaches new heights (or depths?), maybe we can remember just how the current Gaza situation started.  Palestinian civilians are suffering for it, but I'm pretty sure Hamas doesn't care about civilians.

Quote of the Day as Israel Hits Hamas

Around the 8:30 mark: "Sometimes you just have to fight against people who want to murder you."

Kurdistan Rising? A Referendum on Independence

It begins.  There are considerable concerns, of course.  Elsewhere, Israeli support for Kurdish independence is fueling criticism that this further oppresses the Palestinians and marginalizes the Kurds.  I haven't looked into reactions in Turkey yet, but you're perfectly capable of doing that on your own.

Kurdish Delight: Turkey and Israel Back Independent Kurdistan

Two quotations:

“In the past an independent Kurdish state was a reason for war [for Turkey] but no one has the right to say this now.” - Huseyin Celik, spokesman for the ruling AK party 

 “We need to support the Kurdish aspiration for independence. They deserve it.” -  Benjamin Netanyahu

The Year In Middle East Foreign Policy: The Biggest Losers

Out of a very crowded field, this piece picks three: the Mujahedeen-e-Khalq (an Iranian resistance group), the Syrian rebels, and (of course) Israel. 

The quote of the day comes from the article too:

"The lesson there is, when the United States says it has your back, don't listen."

How damning.  As for "smart power," this feckless Administration makes it look dumber all the time.