Travels with Charley - I Mean, Chin Ho Kelly

A celebrity goes to the Middle East and doesn't launch into half-baked political yammering and virtue-signaling moral preening! Instead, he conducts himself with grace and humility (and some charmingly self-deprecating humor too). Kudos to one of my favorite Asian American actors for doing it right.

‪A #Christmas Tree, a #Crescent Moon and a #dove with 8 lights for #Hanukkah, all present in one holiday display in the city of Haifa. This simple monument, more than anything else, captures my feelings about my visit here to the Middle East. Though I have listened and heard many impassioned viewpoints, my trip is not a political one. I am not so arrogant as to think that a two week stay qualifies me to be an expert on a conflict that has lasted for thousands of years. I am here to appreciate the beauty of this region. I am here to meet its extraordinary people, from every walk of life. I am here to respectfully bow my head in the birthplace of many of the world's religions. And most importantly, I am here to learn. ‬ What I do know though, is that I have already had some unforgettable experiences with people I now consider friends- Israeli, Palestinian, Bedouin, Jordanian, Christian, Jew and Muslim. And to all of you, above all else, I wish you #PEACE and a harmonious #COEXISTENCE. In fact, I wish that for us all. ‬ So if you shout. Or if you rage, I will not hear you. But if you want to share your opinion below in respectful dialogue, you are welcome here. ‬

A photo posted by Daniel Dae Kim (@danieldaekim) on Dec 29, 2016 at 5:36am PST

Foreign Policy 101?

Foreign policy advice for a new president from Michael Totten makes for a bracing read. Here's the short version for those of you in a hurry:

In essence: Get real about Russia, finish off ISIS in Syria, back the Kurds to the hilt, downgrade relations with Turkey, repair our relations with Israel and crack down hard again on Iran. World peace won’t break out if you do these things, but we’ll be a lot better off than if you don’t.

All this advice is based on one simple principle—you reward your friends and punish your enemies. It’s the first rule of foreign policy, one that has been with us since antiquity and will survive until the end of time. Presidents who behave as though this rule doesn’t apply to them are as doomed to fail in foreign policy as rocket scientists who ignore gravity. Hubristically declaring that it would not do “stupid sh*t” like its predecessors, the Obama administration flipped this rule on its head over and over again—with Israel, with Russia, with Iran, and with Turkey—with disastrous results every time.

So turn things around. Again: Reward your friends and punish your enemies. Tattoo that rule on the back of your eyelids if you have to.

Quote of the Day: Self-Debunking Middle East Policy?

My colleague Alessandra called this long ago: Obama's Middle East foreign policy debacles would induce the Saudis and Israelis to work more and more closely, even flat out openly, against Iran.  A common fear of a regional nuclear hegemon makes strange bedfellows?  Desperate times call for desperate measures.

There's also this observation (my emphasis in boldface):

Obama came into office convinced that U.S. influence in the Middle East, as well as regional stability, revolved around one problem: the plight of the Palestinians. Resolving their conflict with Israel was the president’s top foreign policy from his first day in office. His belief that the U.S. was too close to Israel and that by establishing more daylight between the two allies, he could help broker an end to the long war between Jews and Arabs. To accomplish that goal, he picked fights with Israel, undermined its diplomatic position, and did his best to pressure the Israelis into making concessions that would please the Palestinians. The failure of this policy was foreordained since the Palestinians are still unable to recognize the legitimacy of a Jewish state no matter where its borders are drawn.

But the events of the past six years have also shown that his focus on the Palestinians as the source of the problem was a disastrous mistake. The Arab spring, civil war in Syria, the rise of ISIS, and the Iranian nuclear threat proved that the Palestinians had little or nothing to do with the most serious problems in the region. Indeed, by forcing Israel and the Saudis to cooperate against Iran with little attention being paid to the dead end peace process with the Palestinians, Obama has effectively debunked the core idea at the heart of his foreign policy.

Quote of the Day: Kurds vs. ISIS

From an anthropologist and a retired general writing together in the New York Times opinion pages today (well, that's not a combination you see every day):

Together with Lydia Wilson and Hoshang Waziri, our colleagues at Artis, a nonprofit group that uses social science research to resolve intergroup violence, we found that the Kurds demonstrate a will to fight that matches the Islamic State’s. The United States needs to help them win.

"Them" means the Kurds.

Obama, ISIS, and the Bush Doctrine

What say you?

Photographing the Flight From ISIS

Photojournalist John Stanmeyer brings images of some 66,000 Syrian Kurds fleeing from ISIS and flooding into Turkey yesterday.

What Ice Bucket Challenge?

In Lebanon it's the ISIS flag burning challenge.  Screw you, ISIS!

Quote of the Day: "Unprecedented Disarray"

Hope and change. Well, change, anyway:

If anything, the international situation Obama faced when he assumed the presidency was, in many respects, relatively auspicious. Despite the financial crisis and the recession that followed, never since John F. Kennedy has an American president assumed high office with so much global goodwill. The war in Iraq, which had done so much to bedevil Bush’s presidency, had been won thanks to a military strategy Obama had, as a senator, flatly opposed. For the war in Afghanistan, there was broad bipartisan support for large troop increases. Not even six months into his presidency, Obama was handed a potential strategic game changer when a stolen election in Iran led to a massive popular uprising that, had it succeeded, could have simultaneously ended the Islamic Republic and resolved the nuclear crisis. He was handed another would-be game changer in early 2011, when the initially peaceful uprising in Syria offered an opportunity, at relatively little cost to the U.S., to depose an anti-American dictator and sever the main link between Iran and its terrorist proxies in Lebanon and Gaza.

Incredibly, Obama squandered every single one of these opportunities. 

Squandered or, in some cases, "threw away with both hands."

3 Definitions of the Obama Doctrine

Admittedly, this is a rather difficult endeavour because it's trying to do a definition by default given that the administration seems to have no coherent pro-active strategic vision.  "Leading from behind" does NOT count.  Anyway, what do you think of:

(1) Definition the First

The Obama Doctrine is to ignore problems until they metastasize into vast international crises, then react with an ineffective spasm of concern. In this, the President has been consistent, be it Libya, Egypt, Boko Haram or Ukraine. The truly serious situations get a Twitter hashtag.

(2) Definition the Second

Asked seven years ago if the need to stave off potential genocide might convince him to change his mind about a total and precipitous withdrawal of American troops from Iraq, then-candidate Obama replied that it would not. “Well, look, if that’s the criteria by which we are making decisions on the deployment of U.S. forces, then by that argument you would have 300,000 troops in the Congo right now — where millions have been slaughtered as a consequence of ethnic strife — which we haven’t done,” Obama said. 

This cynical avowal, I wrote at the time, was an indication of what might become the “Obama doctrine,” which I described thusly: “The United States will remain passive in the face of genocide.” Seven years later, I regret to say, my prediction stands up pretty well.

(3) Definition the Third (OK, not so much definition as observation)

US respnse 2 Syria,Russia,Iraq: 1)Huh? 2)We're watching this closely 3)With concern. 4)Hey, stop- 5)We won't tolerate that! 6)Mmm. Whatever.
— Rosa Brooks (@brooks_rosa) June 13, 2014

Humans of Iraq: Popular Photo Blog Turns War Report

Humans of New York is now in Iraq.  If you're not reading it, you're missing out.

Israel Rallies Behind Netanyahu

Current polling has some 90% (!) of Israelis supporting Netanyahu.

Meanwhile Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have basically lined up against Hamas and so aligned themselves with Israel.

Support at home and from the usually hostile neighbors will give Israel a lot more leeway to act. The New York Times reports on this and complains that Egypt, et al's choice is making everything worse by impeding a ceasefire.  You know, ceasefires would probably be more feasible if Kerry weren't an idiot, Hamas didn't consistently break them by refusing to stop firing rockets, and - let's be brutally honest - they didn't help the aggressor.

Satire Alert: "Everyone In Middle East Given Own Country In 317,000,000-State Solution"

Since the Middle East is going up in flames and the much-ballyhooed 2-state solution doesn't seem to be feasible, the humorists at the Onion have another proposal.

Down the Rabbit Hole: Hamas Tunnels

Infrastructure.

The Middle East Friendship Chart

Obviously it's reductive and imperfect (where is Jordan?  I didn't see Lebanon either), but this chart is an interesting attempt to begin to think about the complexity of relationships in the Middle East.  I kind of want to add "Frenemies" as another relationship option and "Kurds/Kurdistan" as another player.  Note, though, how ISIS is pretty much hated by everybody.

Cartoon Commentary on Hamas in Gaza

As Israel-bashing in the media and commentariat reaches new heights (or depths?), maybe we can remember just how the current Gaza situation started.  Palestinian civilians are suffering for it, but I'm pretty sure Hamas doesn't care about civilians.

Quote of the Day as Israel Hits Hamas

Around the 8:30 mark: "Sometimes you just have to fight against people who want to murder you."

Kurdistan Rising? A Referendum on Independence

It begins.  There are considerable concerns, of course.  Elsewhere, Israeli support for Kurdish independence is fueling criticism that this further oppresses the Palestinians and marginalizes the Kurds.  I haven't looked into reactions in Turkey yet, but you're perfectly capable of doing that on your own.

Quote of the Day on ISIS

No good choices:

It is fine to pit Assad and Maliki plus Iran and Russia against ISIS, except under the following circumstances: Either side wins or, alternatively, there is a draw.

ISIS, the Caliphate, and the War On History

So ISIS (or ISIL or you say tomayto, I say tomahto, you say bloody-minded extremist, I say violent jihadist) has renamed itself IS (Islamic State) and declared a caliphate.  Bold and risky move.  See too the role of history, mangled and otherwise.  While we're on the topic,  don't forget this:

By formally abolishing the Syrian-Iraqi border ISIS doubtless hopes to evoke memories of the Ottoman era before supposedly artificial states were constructed for the convenience of European powers—a time when frontiers were porous and the ways of Islam were universally observed. The fatal flaw in this utopian vision—apart from its obvious historical inaccuracy—is its failure to recognize the division between Sunnism and Shiism that long predated Western interventions in Iraq and Syria. ...

However much the leaders of ISIS seek to draw on the imagery of an international Arab jihad rolling back a century of Western imperialism, the growth of ISIS feeds on these sectarian tensions that have been reanimated across the region. Politically, the jihadists have gained support from the widespread hatred of the Shiite cronyism of the Maliki regime, which replaced the cronyism of Saddam Hussein’s, as well as from the brutality of its counterpart in Damascus. And to the extent that foreign powers are driving the situation, the underlying dynamic flows less from the West than from the rivalry between the Sunni monarchies of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf on one side and Shiite Iran on the other. 

Kurdish Delight: Turkey and Israel Back Independent Kurdistan

Two quotations:

“In the past an independent Kurdish state was a reason for war [for Turkey] but no one has the right to say this now.” - Huseyin Celik, spokesman for the ruling AK party 

 “We need to support the Kurdish aspiration for independence. They deserve it.” -  Benjamin Netanyahu