Syria: Its Breakup is a "Fait Accompli"

So says Foreign Policy.

Foreign Policy 101?

Foreign policy advice for a new president from Michael Totten makes for a bracing read. Here's the short version for those of you in a hurry:

In essence: Get real about Russia, finish off ISIS in Syria, back the Kurds to the hilt, downgrade relations with Turkey, repair our relations with Israel and crack down hard again on Iran. World peace won’t break out if you do these things, but we’ll be a lot better off than if you don’t.

All this advice is based on one simple principle—you reward your friends and punish your enemies. It’s the first rule of foreign policy, one that has been with us since antiquity and will survive until the end of time. Presidents who behave as though this rule doesn’t apply to them are as doomed to fail in foreign policy as rocket scientists who ignore gravity. Hubristically declaring that it would not do “stupid sh*t” like its predecessors, the Obama administration flipped this rule on its head over and over again—with Israel, with Russia, with Iran, and with Turkey—with disastrous results every time.

So turn things around. Again: Reward your friends and punish your enemies. Tattoo that rule on the back of your eyelids if you have to.

One Does Not Simply Walk Into Google Translate

HEH.

Quote of the Day: Returning Ghosts

Via Samizdata:

But when we look around in Europe today, we see that not only is Europe not whole and free, we see the ghosts from the painful 20th century returning to our midst. Ghosts that we thought we’d never see again, that we had buried deep in history’s trashbin.

Today, when we look around us, we see it all again. The annexation of territory, the violation of borders, religious conservativism pairing with political authoritarianism and imperialist bravado. 80% of Russians support annexation through military aggression in Crimea, where the Anschluss – and I use that term most seriously here – the Anschluss of territory was justified by the presence of co-ethnics. Moreover, there is widespread support for an anti-liberal attack against decadent Western “permissiveness,” be it in freedom of speech or choice of life-partners. Indeed, we see that liberal democracy has not only failed to win the battle of ideas against authoritarianism, it has failed even to prevent the resurrection of that once vanquished demon, fascism. The nationalist fervor east of us is expressed in arts in a way that makes Leni Riefenstahl’s Triumph of the Will look like a liberal programme – I suggest you look at the video of the so-called “biker show” staged on August 8 this year in Sevastopol. It is on You Tube. It is a genuine Gesamtkunstwerk. Everything is there – music, art, ballet, motorcycle gangs, it’s all there.

- Estonian President Toomas Hendrik (link to speech transcript)

3 Definitions of the Obama Doctrine

Admittedly, this is a rather difficult endeavour because it's trying to do a definition by default given that the administration seems to have no coherent pro-active strategic vision.  "Leading from behind" does NOT count.  Anyway, what do you think of:

(1) Definition the First

The Obama Doctrine is to ignore problems until they metastasize into vast international crises, then react with an ineffective spasm of concern. In this, the President has been consistent, be it Libya, Egypt, Boko Haram or Ukraine. The truly serious situations get a Twitter hashtag.

(2) Definition the Second

Asked seven years ago if the need to stave off potential genocide might convince him to change his mind about a total and precipitous withdrawal of American troops from Iraq, then-candidate Obama replied that it would not. “Well, look, if that’s the criteria by which we are making decisions on the deployment of U.S. forces, then by that argument you would have 300,000 troops in the Congo right now — where millions have been slaughtered as a consequence of ethnic strife — which we haven’t done,” Obama said. 

This cynical avowal, I wrote at the time, was an indication of what might become the “Obama doctrine,” which I described thusly: “The United States will remain passive in the face of genocide.” Seven years later, I regret to say, my prediction stands up pretty well.

(3) Definition the Third (OK, not so much definition as observation)

US respnse 2 Syria,Russia,Iraq: 1)Huh? 2)We're watching this closely 3)With concern. 4)Hey, stop- 5)We won't tolerate that! 6)Mmm. Whatever.
— Rosa Brooks (@brooks_rosa) June 13, 2014

Headline: "Russia Needs to Learn the Value of Human Life"

Good luck with that.

In Russia, Beach Hits You!

Just another day in paradise as the temperature suddenly plummets 40 degrees and the sky hurls golfball-sized hailstones at fleeing vacationers.

If You Can't Stand The Dissent, Get Out Of The Kitchen

Dinner wasn't the only thing cooking in Soviet kitchens.

Awesome LOL: Global Stereotype Map

This is brilliant ... and a brilliant commentary on the absurdity of reductive stereotypes.  It is also delightfully insightful and incisive in places: note how it calls a chunk of Russia "Putingrad," Ukraine "Putin's Precious," and Crimea "Putinistan."  On a lighter note, Sweden is labeled "ABBA," "IKEA," and "Nobel Prizes."

Quote of the Day on ISIS

No good choices:

It is fine to pit Assad and Maliki plus Iran and Russia against ISIS, except under the following circumstances: Either side wins or, alternatively, there is a draw.

Friday Fun Video: From Russia With Sludge

Take a look at this pottery wheel performance art!

Best Foreign Policy Analysis In 140 Characters or Fewer

US respnse 2 Syria,Russia,Iraq: 1)Huh? 2)We're watching this closely 3)With concern. 4)Hey, stop- 5)We won't tolerate that! 6)Mmm. Whatever.
— Rosa Brooks (@brooks_rosa) June 13, 2014

Brooks is currently a Georgetown law professor. She worked in the Department of Defense from 2009 to 2011.

A Matter of Perspective

Landmarks from different angles!

LOL: P.J. O'Rourke "Explains" Russian History

After casting a sardonic, hilariously reductive eye over a thousand years of Russian history, humorist P.J. O'Rourke is confident that Putin, in keeping with that history, will destroy himself sooner or later. 

I do remember a discussion with Alessandra a few years back about Russian history and how Russia had serfs long after everyone else had abandoned serfdom.  This was swiftly followed by her observation that only in Russia would the act of ending serfdom make life even worse for the serfs - er, ex-serfs.

Oh, I can't resist quoting a bit of O'Rourke:

"After his [Ivan the Terrible's] reign, Russia, if you can believe it, got worse. 'The Time of Troubles' featured more drought, more famine, more plague, foreign invasions, massacres, the occupation and sacking of Moscow, and tsars with names like False Dmitry I and False Dmitry II."

Hey, you forgot False Dmitry III!

Ouch.

Hey, Barack? The 1930s called. They want the UK's foreign policy back. http://t.co/4oUqVKMKxt
— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) March 20, 2014

March Madness, Putin Style

Quote of the Day: Sanctions and Success

Oh, dear:

"Experts are divided into two groups: those who think sanctions usually fail and those who think they almost always fail."

Foreign Policy's School of Hard Knock ... -Knock Jokes

Blah Blah Blah: Useless White House Rhetoric on Ukraine

This is pretty much spot on. 

I add this reaction gif:

While we're at it, here's the Tweet of the Day by none other than Rob Lowe:

“@BBCBreaking: Obama:"Russia on wrong side of history" in #Ukraine http://t.co/B2LQAJHUtJ” Perfect. Guilt trips always work on Putin.
— Rob Lowe (@RobLowe) March 3, 2014

Russian Troops Confirmed in Ukraine

This does not look good.  Krauthammer sounds pessimistic about revanchist Russia under Putin.