"No Longer Even 'Leading From Behind'"

The ongoing mess in Libya.

3 Definitions of the Obama Doctrine

Admittedly, this is a rather difficult endeavour because it's trying to do a definition by default given that the administration seems to have no coherent pro-active strategic vision.  "Leading from behind" does NOT count.  Anyway, what do you think of:

(1) Definition the First

The Obama Doctrine is to ignore problems until they metastasize into vast international crises, then react with an ineffective spasm of concern. In this, the President has been consistent, be it Libya, Egypt, Boko Haram or Ukraine. The truly serious situations get a Twitter hashtag.

(2) Definition the Second

Asked seven years ago if the need to stave off potential genocide might convince him to change his mind about a total and precipitous withdrawal of American troops from Iraq, then-candidate Obama replied that it would not. “Well, look, if that’s the criteria by which we are making decisions on the deployment of U.S. forces, then by that argument you would have 300,000 troops in the Congo right now — where millions have been slaughtered as a consequence of ethnic strife — which we haven’t done,” Obama said. 

This cynical avowal, I wrote at the time, was an indication of what might become the “Obama doctrine,” which I described thusly: “The United States will remain passive in the face of genocide.” Seven years later, I regret to say, my prediction stands up pretty well.

(3) Definition the Third (OK, not so much definition as observation)

US respnse 2 Syria,Russia,Iraq: 1)Huh? 2)We're watching this closely 3)With concern. 4)Hey, stop- 5)We won't tolerate that! 6)Mmm. Whatever.
— Rosa Brooks (@brooks_rosa) June 13, 2014

Israel Rallies Behind Netanyahu

Current polling has some 90% (!) of Israelis supporting Netanyahu.

Meanwhile Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have basically lined up against Hamas and so aligned themselves with Israel.

Support at home and from the usually hostile neighbors will give Israel a lot more leeway to act. The New York Times reports on this and complains that Egypt, et al's choice is making everything worse by impeding a ceasefire.  You know, ceasefires would probably be more feasible if Kerry weren't an idiot, Hamas didn't consistently break them by refusing to stop firing rockets, and - let's be brutally honest - they didn't help the aggressor.

The Middle East Friendship Chart

Obviously it's reductive and imperfect (where is Jordan?  I didn't see Lebanon either), but this chart is an interesting attempt to begin to think about the complexity of relationships in the Middle East.  I kind of want to add "Frenemies" as another relationship option and "Kurds/Kurdistan" as another player.  Note, though, how ISIS is pretty much hated by everybody.

Quote of the Day: Remembering the Persecuted Christians of the Middle East

OK, I've mocked Prince Charles plenty in the past (and will continue to do so in the future, I'm sure) for some of the silly things he's said. But sometimes he gets it right. Like right now, as he offers up this reminder about the ongoing persecution of Christians in the Middle East, the atrocity that almost nobody in the media ever mentions. Here's a bit of it:

“I have for some time now been deeply troubled by the growing difficulties faced by Christian communities in various parts of the Middle East.  It seems to me that we cannot ignore the fact that Christians in the Middle East are increasingly being deliberately targeted by fundamentalist Islamist militants.”

Egypt Pivots to Putin?

Oh, I'm sure this is going to turn out just awesome for US foreign policy.  I never realized I'd be getting so much mileage out of this image:

The Christian Exodus From The Middle East

It's Sunday.  Spare a thought for those being persecuted in the Middle East.  The assaults on Christians in Egypt and Syria recently have been horrific.  Here's a piece of the article in Foreign Affairs:

At the start of World War I, the Christian population of the Middle East may have been as high as 20 percent. Today, it is roughly four percent. Although it is difficult to be exact, there are perhaps 13 million Christians left in the region, and that number has likely fallen further, given the continued destabilization of Syria and Egypt, two nations with historically large Christian populations. At the present rate of decline, there may very well be no significant Christian presence in the Middle East in another generation or two.  

This would be a profoundly important loss. Christianity was born in the Middle East and had a deep, penetrating presence in the region for hundreds of years before the rise of Islam.  

. . . But it is important to note that the removal of the region’s Christians is a disaster for Muslims as well. They are the ones who will be left with the task of building decent societies in the aftermath of these atrocities. And that task will be made immeasurably harder by the removal of Christians from their midst. It is not just that the memory of these brutal actions will taint these societies -- perpetrators and victims alike -- for the indefinite future; it is also that Muslims are removing the sort of pluralism that is the foundation for any truly democratic public life. One of the refrains of the Arab Spring has been that Muslims want to put an end to tyranny. But the only lasting guarantor of political rights is the sort of social and religious diversity that Muslims in the region are in the process of extinguishing. If nothing is done to reverse the situation, the hope for peace and prosperity in the Middle East may vanish along with the region’s Christian population. 

Meanwhile In Egypt

The Egyptian air force has reportedly hit jihadists in Sinai.  Just a reminder that there's a lot more going over in the Middle East than Syria and Obama's incompetent international psychodrama that has monopolized the media of late.

Big Pharaoh's "Complete Idiot's Chart to Understanding the Middle East"

Big Pharaoh's a long-time Egyptian blogger (and tweeter), and this pseudonymous wit has come up with the fittingly, deceptively named, and only partly tongue-in-cheek chart that the WaPo ran a few days back.  If you haven't had a chance to look, take a gander:

Even Big Pharaoh himself admits that it's incomplete and he's constantly having to add to it.  I have to say too that there aren't enough red lines directed at Israel, but perhaps hating Israel is taken so for granted that it's not even necessary to note the fact.  Since the "USA" means for all intents and purposes "the Obama Administration," it should really have green lines going in every direction possible, y'think?

Analyzing the Middle East

A letter sent to the Financial Times:

Boo Freaking Hoo: Terrorist Groups Have HR Problems

Apparently the managers find that their employees are insubordinate, unstable, violent loose cannons who don't respond well to authority. YA THINK?

Then I read a WaPo sob story about how the Muslim Brotherhood is falling apart in Egypt and whining that now everybody hates them.  Awwwww.  Well, I'm finding it exceedingly difficult to feel much sympathy for people who loot museums, burn churches, and so forth.

Quote of the Day: Egypt in a Nutshell

Among the ever-proliferating analyses you can read now, I think this is a good distillation:

There is a war going on in Egypt. We may not like either side, but one side is clearly worse than the other. We need to make sure the Moslem Brotherhood doesn't emerge victorious in this war.

This seems obvious, but as I've often said, nothing is so obvious that you don't have to spell it out, especially in a world where some people in government can actually say with a straight face that the Brotherhood is "secular" and therefore benign.  (Other people get it and are acting in their own self-interest: the Saudis and company haven't decided to give the Egyptian military $12 billion for no reason: they want the Brotherhood smashed.)  Time to hold our noses and back Egypt's military.  Does that sound horrible?  Maybe. Sometimes reality is.

In related news, an Egyptian court has just ordered Hosni Mubarak let out of prison, so it's on like Donkey Kong.  As my buddy Alessandra quipped, "So ... Basically, the Egyptians got rid of Mubarak and put in Morsi, and then decided the new boss was so horrible they'd rather have their old boss back?"

Flashback: Bernard Lewis in 2011

As Egypt burns, I recall an interview that this eminent scholar and historian gave back in 2011 as Mubarak fell.  I'll just quote what Lewis had to say about radical Islamic groups and the election that would eventually bring Morsi to power:

Interviewer: Yet in Egypt now, for example, the assumption is that we’re proceeding toward elections in September and that seems to be what the West is inclined to encourage. 

Lewis: I would view that with mistrust and apprehension. If there’s a genuinely free election – assuming that such a thing could happen – the religious parties have an immediate advantage. First, they have a network of communication through the preacher and the mosque which no other political tendency can hope to equal. Second, they use familiar language. The language of Western democracy is for the most part newly translated and not intelligible to the great masses. In genuinely fair and free elections, [the Muslim parties] are very likely to win and I think that would be a disaster. A much better course would be a gradual development of democracy, not through general elections, but rather through local self-governing institutions. For that, there is a real tradition in the region. 

... This idea that a general election, Western-style, is a solution to all these problems, seems to me a dangerous fallacy which can only lead to disaster. ... To say that they’re [the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt]  secular would show an astonishing ignorance of the English lexicon. I don’t think [it] is in any sense benign. I think it is a very dangerous, radical Islamic movement. If they obtain power, the consequences would be disastrous for Egypt.

Well, the Hummus Has Hit the Fan, All Right

In Egypt, "Bambi Meets Godzilla" ... with predictable results.  Somehow, the administration has managed to alienate just about everybody involved.

The Purple Woes of Cairo

Things are getting ugly (OK, uglier) in Egypt as the military attacks the Muslim Brotherhood, which is pushing back.  Here's another awful aspect that should not be overlooked: Morsi supporters have set fire to a number of Coptic churches.

This Is What "Leading From Behind" Gets You

I'm a few days behind, but this is still worth a look.  This administration's foreign policy (such as it is) is looking more and more amoeba-like every day - stimulus, response, stimulus, response, purely reactive, lacking higher cognitive functions.

Photo of the Day From Egypt

Via Egyptian blogger Big Pharaoh (his latest is worth a read too)

Message to Americans from the #Egypt presidential palace demo: a tick on the US flag, a cross on Obama. Impressive. pic.twitter.com/tDT61aRhWS
— The Big Pharaoh (@TheBigPharaoh) July 7, 2013

Apparently this is a thing now.

Breaking: OMG, Egypt

Morsi's out; the military's in.  The constitution's suspended.  The live images and video coming out of Cairo are extraordinary.  Twitter is on fire.  OK, now what?  

UPDATE 1: Fareed Zakaria is now yapping on CNN. *mute button*

UPDATE 2: Lots of flurried, frantic "commentary" from various talking heads on the news outlets.  Arguably the goofiest utterance yet: "It was a military coup d'etat, which is undemocratic.  But it was what the people wanted, so it is democratic."  

Quote of the Day: Spengler on Egypt and the Arab Spring

The whole thing is worth a read, but here's the quote of the day:

The foreign policy establishment told us that the Arab Spring was the dawn of a glorious new era of democracy in that part of the world. The establishment was dead wrong.

Look, sometimes even the best minds in foreign policy/Middle Eastern studies have no consensus what's going on.  Besides, what are you going to do if the Foreign Office no longer understands foreign affairs?

Quote of the Day: the US and the Arab Spring Aftermath

Oh, dear (as quoted here):

"... the United States has somehow managed to alienate both sides of the Arab cold war: Dictators think we’re naively pro-revolution, and Arab protesters and rebels worry we’re still siding with the dictators."