Setting the Bar Wayyyy Low

A new agreement between the city and the UFT is being touted by Randi Weingarten as a great victory because we didn't give away as much as other unions have. I guess if you set the bar as low as Randi does, this might seem like a great victory. For the rest of us, it's mostly a loss.

Basically, the agreement will establish a new retirement tier for new hires that will force them to pay 4.85% of their salaries into the pension fund for life, instead of the current ten years. In return, they will get to retire at 55/27 instead of the 62 years agreed to by two other city unions. But there are two problems with declaring this a huge victory.

First, Randi gave away the store in 2005, including the peddling of seniority, lengthening the school day, sending us back to the lunchrooms, etc., for the mere promise of support for a 55/25 retirement. Despite all the givebacks, few teachers actually qualified for the 55 year retirement and we ultimately settled for two more years of work for most members. That 57/25 has been retained, but don't ever forget what we gave away to even get it in the first place.

Second, comparing us to other unions makes no sense. Those other unions were under threat of massive layoffs, and we were not. They agreed to the new Tier 5 in exchange for no layoffs. There is absolutely nothing mentioned in this agreement about a no-layoff clause for school workers, so Bloomberg can get out his ax anyway.

Also, we agreed to lower the fixed rate of return on TDAs to 7%, down from 8.25. Allegedly we did this because the pension fund lost a lot of money gambling in the market (and yes, stocks are gambling). Personally, I put all my money in fixed more than a year ago, so people like me will have to subsidize the poor pension decisions of the pension fund. I did a rough calculation in my head, and it seems likely that I will lose at least $15,000 by the time I retire due to this reduction. Good going, Randi!

Of course, in exchange, we got the two days before Labor Day back. What the UFT failed to mention was that they gave away those two days in the first place. If they'd gotten rid of those two days AND 37.5 minutes, there might be reason to celebrate, just a little.

But that darned bar is so low, high fives seem in dubious taste.

Mr. Talk Tells the Future

In this city, telling the future of teachers is more like reading the writing on the wall. But still, in the spirit of being able to say I told you so when this all happens, here are some predictions for the near future:

Tier 5 is coming to NY teachers before you know what hits you. After negotiating the 25/55 that was really a 25/57, and not getting it done until years after they said they would, the city and UFT will eliminate it and jump on the tier 5 bandwagon that the state has embraced. Good luck, young teachers! You'll now get to pay 3% of your salary in perpetuity for the honor of retiring 7 years later than me. The city will blackmail the UFT into accepting this with the threat of layoffs, and Randi will trumpet the new tier as a major victory.

The new charter school that pays teachers $125,000 a year, and which currently has only 8 teachers chosen from a pool of 600, will become a "model" of how to do things in the city, despite the fact that there aren't 600 candidates for every 8 jobs in the city and that the city will never agree to pay teachers anywhere near $125,000. Mayor Bloomberg will use this school as a way to "prove" that only teacher quality matters, and not class size. He will, accordingly, raise class size but fail to do anything to attract teachers to NYC. Teachers will be roundly criticized when this experiment fails. Tenure will be severely eroded or eliminated in an attempt to emulate that one tiny charter school. Randi will hail this as a major victory.

The currently unfunded Teacher's Choice program, which gave teachers neither enough money nor enough choice, will be replaced by a new initiative called the Supplies Aplenty Program. Under the SAP. teachers will be required to buy all their own supplies for their entire careers, but the total will be pensionable for the new Tier 5 program. Due to the elimination of tenure, however, no teacher will ever receive their pension. Randi will be pictured on the front page of New York Teacher, a Mussolini like tilt to her head and a fistful of rubber bands thrust in the air, with the headline declaring "VICTORY!"

Mayor Bloomberg will win his third term along with mostly unchanged mayoral control of schools. He will fire Joel Klein as schools chancellor and hire Caroline Kennedy, who will be essentially the same with a much more attractive exterior. Bloomy will groom Caroline to be the next mayor of New York following his third, or possibly fourth, term (even I can't predict that one) on the theory that only the filthy rich deserve to be mayor. Regardless of whether it's Caroline in 2013 or 2017, Randi will hail her election as a major victory for teachers.

Pissed Off Teacher will rock the house in her prom dress. Randi will not hail this as a major victory for teachers, but will begin showing up in red everywhere she goes. Teachers will hail this as a major turn-off.

At least one administrator at your school will continue to be a dick. (OK, that was easy).

UPDATE: POed really did rock the house, so I am 1 for 5 so far. The other predictions are just a matter of time.