Super Tuesday Settled It - The Choice Is Biden Or Trump

Slightly less than half of the states have voted in primaries or caucuses, but for practical purposes the presidential nominating campaign is over for both parties. The Super Tuesday states settled it by putting one candidate in each party so far ahead as to be impossible to catch.

Nikki Haley was able to win one state (Vermont), but she was trounced by Donald Trump in all the others. The night left Trump with 722 delegates of the 1215 needed, while Haley has only 46 delegates. On Wednesday morning, Haley dropped out of the race.

The result was just as lopsided on the Democratic side. Biden won all the Super Tuesday states by a huge margin. His two opponents (Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson) were unable to even approach Haley's anemic numbers when combined. The night left Biden with 1,288 delegates of the 1,969 needed for the nomination, while neither opponent has any delegates (although there are 5 uncommitted delegates).

In the remaining states, both Biden and Trump will easily amass enough delegates to clinch their nominations. Like it or not, The choice in November will be between President Biden or Donald Trump -- a choice between a decent working class born man willing to compromise and a lying rich born authoritarian madman who refuses to compromise.

I know that some recent polls have shown Trump being preferred over Biden, but it is still very early to worry about the polls. Those polls have a significant number of "unsure" (people who have yet to make up their minds).

Historically, American voters have rejected extremists. Most voters are moderates, and they expect their leaders to be willing to compromise for the good of the country. If there is a huge turnout in November (and I hope that will be the case), I expect they will choose the more moderate and willing to compromise candidate -- President Biden.

Super Tuesday Was A Great Night For Joe Biden

A week ago, political pundit were writing Joe Biden's political obituary. They told us that even if Biden could squeak out a win in South Carolina, it wouldn't be enough. Super Tuesday was supposed to be great for Bernie Sanders -- and would probably give him an insurmountable lead in delegates.

But politics is a strange and unpredictable animal, and sometimes it can radically change in just a few days. That seems to have happened this last week.

It started in South Carolina, where Biden didn't just squeak out a win, but scored a huge victory. Then three candidates suspended their campaigns -- Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, and Tom Steyer. And Buttigieg and Klobuchar then endorsed Biden. These events seem to have reverberated across the nation, giving Biden a huge boost.

And it changed the dynamics of Super Tuesday. Joe Biden won Virginia, North Carolina, Alabama, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Minnesota, and Massachusetts. Bernie Sanders won California, Utah, Colorado, and Vermont. Those were shocking results. Sanders was expected to carry Oklahoma, Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Massachusetts -- but lost all of them to Biden.

The total number of delegates each candidate won is not yet known, but Sanders did not get the insurmountable lead he wanted. In fact, Biden and Sanders will probably be very close to each other in the delegates count -- and Biden might even have a small lead.

What we know is that Super Tuesday has narrowed the race for the nomination to a two-person race. It is between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.

Both Michael Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren did poorly on Super Tuesday. They both got a few delegates, but find themselves far behind Biden and Sanders.

NOTE -- As I write this two states are too close to call -- Maine and Texas. Biden has a small lead in both, but either candidate could win. Regardless of who is declared the winner in these two states, the delegates will be split about evenly between Biden and Sanders.

Chance Of Brokered Convention Grows - Tuesday Predictions

One of the most respected political prognosticators is Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com. Last week, he had the chance of Democrats having a brokered convention at 50%. After South Carolina, that chance has been raised to 59%. Sanders is given a 27% chance of attaining a majority and Biden a 14% chance.

Tomorrow's Super Tuesday could change that -- depending on who wins how many delegates. Fivethirtyeight.com has made some predictions of how the delegates will be split up in each of the 14 Super Tuesday state and one territory. The charts below show their predictions.

Biden, Warren, And Sanders Lead In Super Tuesday States

The chart above is from the new CBS News Battleground Tracker / YouGov Poll -- done between January 16th and 23rd of 8,593 Democratic voters in the 14 Super Tuesday states, and has a margin of error of 1.6 points.

Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren remain far ahead of their competitors in the Democratic race. Pete Buttigieg still has trouble getting traction outside of Iowa, and in fact has been overtaken by Michael Bloomberg (who has spent over a hundred million on advertising in the Super Tuesday states.

"Super Tuesday" Democrats Confident The Eventual Democratic Candidate Will Beat Donald Trump

These charts are from the CBS News / YouGov Battleground Poll -- done between December 3rd and 11th of 10,379 Democrats and Leaners in 14 states that will vote on Super Tuesday (March 3rd). Those states are Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia. The margin of error for the survey is 1.3 points.

The Democrats in those states are split over whether it will be harder or not if the candidate is Black or a woman. But they are confident that their eventual nominee (whoever it is) will beat Donald Trump in November. About 55% of Whites and 75% of Blacks express that confidence.

Super Tuesday: Clinton Wins 7 States And Sanders Wins 4

The chart above shows the Super Tuesday results for the Democratic candidates. Bernie Sanders won four states -- Vermont, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Minnesota. Hillary Clinton won seven states -- Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia. And Clinton won her states by larger margins than Sanders did. The only real surprise of the night was Clinton winning Massachusetts -- a state that virtually everyone (including the Clinton people) had thought would go to Sanders.

Here is how the delegate count stands right now:

Clinton...............1001
Sanders...............371

Super Tuesday Chances And Predictions From Nate Silver

(The photo above of Clinton/Sanders is from leftfootforward.org.)

Today is Super Tuesday, and 11 states will go to the polls to choose their preference for the Democratic presidential nominee. America's best poll analyst, Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com, has released his chances of winning and predictions of voting percentages for nine of the Super Tuesday states. The other two (Colorado and Minnesota) have caucuses (which depend mostly on turnout, and not the will of most people). Mr. Silver says:

ALABAMA

Chance of winning
Clinton...............99%
Sanders...............1%

Prediction
Clinton...............73.6%
Sanders...............23.5%

ARKANSAS

Chance of winning
Clinton...............98%
Sanders...............2%

Prediction
Clinton...............64.1%
Sanders...............32.5%

GEORGIA

Chance of winning
Clinton...............99%
Sanders...............1%

Prediction
Clinton...............69.9%
Sanders...............26.9%

MASSACHUSETTS

Chance of winning
Clinton...............87%
Sanders...............13%

Prediction
Clinton...............51.7%
Sanders...............45.2%

OKLAHOMA

Chance of winning
Clinton...............17%
Sanders...............83%

Prediction
Clinton...............45.1%
Sanders...............51.5%

TENNESSEE

Chance of winning
Clinton...............99%
Sanders...............1%

Prediction
Clinton...............64.9%
Sanders...............31.8%

TEXAS

Chance of winning
Clinton...............99%
Sanders...............1%

Prediction
Clinton...............65.2%
Sanders...............31.9%

VERMONT

Chance of winning
Clinton...............1%
Sanders...............99%

Prediction
Clinton...............10.8%
Sanders...............86.9%

VIRGINIA

Chance of winning
Clinton...............99%
Sanders...............1%

Prediction
Clinton...............62.5%
Sanders...............34.5%

Southern "Super Tuesday" States Solidly Behind Clinton

Tomorrow, the Super Tuesday states will vote for their presidential choice. And just like in South Carolina, the Southern states voting tomorrow are solidly behind Hillary Clinton's candidacy for the Democratic nomination. She has a 26 point lead in Tennessee, a 20 point lead in Virginia, a 28-34 point lead in Georgia, and a 21-24 point lead in Texas. That's what the two latest polls of those states shows.

The NBC News / Wall Street Journal / Marist Poll:

Texas (Feb 18-23) 381 likely voters (5.0 point moe)

Georgia (Feb 18-23) 461 likely voters (4.6 point moe)

Tennessee (Feb 22-25) 405 likely voters (4.9 point moe)

The CBS News / YouGov Battleground Poll:

Texas (Feb 22-26) 750 likely voters

Georgia (Feb 22-26) 492 likely voters

Virginia (Feb 22-26) 471 likely voters

Hillary Clinton Could Do Very Well On "Super Tuesday"

On Saturday, South Carolina Democrats will vote in their primary -- and all sign point to a good victory for Hillary Clinton in that state. But that's not the only voting coming up very soon. Just three days after South Carolina, about a dozen states will also hold primaries/caucuses (or soon after).

Bernie Sanders is doing well in two of those states -- holding a 7 point edge in Massachusetts, and a 76 point edge in his home state of Vermont.

Oklahoma, where Clinton holds a slim 2 point lead, is too close to call -- and either candidate could win there.

All the other states show Hillary Clinton with a good lead -- 28 points in Alabama, 25 points in Arkansas, 34 points in Georgia, 31 points in Louisiana, 10 points in Michigan, 34 points in Mississippi, 26 points in Tennessee, 23 points in Texas, and 22 points in Virginia.

It is likely that Super-Tuesday will boost Clinton's margin of delegates substantially.

The chart above was made using results from a new Public Policy Polling survey, done between February 14th and 16th. The following shows the number of delegates, the numbers of voters questioned, and the margin of error for each Super-Tuesday state:

Alabama (60) 500 interviews (4.4 point moe)

Arkansas (37) 525 interviews (4.3 point moe)

Georgia (117) 500 interviews (4.4 point moe)

Louisiana (59) 548 interviews (4.2 point moe)

Massachusetts (116) 538 interviews (4.2 point moe)

Michigan (147) 500 interviews (4.4 point moe)

Mississippi (41) 514 interviews (4.3 point moe)

Oklahoma (42) 542 interviews (4.2 point moe)

Tennessee (75) 500 interviews (4.4 point moe)

Texas (251) 514 interviews (4.3 point moe)

Vermont (26) 693 interviews (3.7 moe)

Virginia (109) 500 interviews (4.4 point moe)

NOTE -- Louisiana will actually vote on March 5th (four days after Super-Tuesday), while Michigan and Mississippi will vote on March 8th (7 days later).  Minnesota, Colorado, and American Samoa will also choose their delegates on Super-Tuesday -- but were not included in this poll.

Hillary Clinton Has A Huge Lead Among Texas Democrats

Bernie Sanders is close in Iowa, and may actually win New Hampshire. But those states are not representative of how the race is going nationally. And by mid-March, his prospects of beating Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination will look a lot poorer.

Take Texas for example. We're only about a month away from the day Texas voters will choose their delegates. Texans will vote on March 1st, as one of the Super-Tuesday states -- and the race is not close in Texas. Hillary Clinton currently has 50% support among Texas Democrats -- 34 points better than Bernie Sanders. Even if Sanders were to get 100% of the undecided voters (an impossibility), he still could not win Texas. And I suspect most (if not all) of the Super-Tuesday states have similar numbers.

For Texas Republicans, it looks like it is boiling down to a two-person race. Ted Cruz (who is a Texan) leads Donald Trump by 5 points (30.3% to 25.3%). Jeb Bush, who has many Texas ties, does very poorly in the state -- getting only about 8.2% support.

These charts were made from a new KTVT-CBS / Dixie Strategies Poll -- done on January 25th and 26th of 767 likely Texas Democratic voters and 1,001 likely Texas Republican voters. The margin of error for Democrats is 3.54 points, and for Republicans is 3.1 points.

Texas Is The Biggest Prize In The Super-Tuesday Primary

(Image is from thedailychronic.net.)

Early 2016 primary and caucus schedule

Feb. 1: Iowa

Feb. 9: New Hampshire

Feb. 20: Nevada Democrats, South Carolina Republicans, Washington Republicans

Feb. 23: Nevada Republicans

Feb. 27: South Carolina Democrats

March 1: Texas, Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota Republicans, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming Republicans

Read more here: http://www.star-telegram.com/news/politics-government/election/article51880685.html#storylink=cpy

We are only about 30 days away from the start of the primary/caucus party delegate selection process -- and only about 60 days away from the Super-Tuesday primaries (where 12 states will choose Republican delegates and 10 states will choose Democratic delegates). The delegates chosen on March 1st will not be enough to put anyone (from either party) over the top -- but it could well give Hillary Clinton a huge lead in delegates (since all of the Super-Tuesday states currently show Clinton with a large lead).

I hesitate to even guess how Super-Tuesday will work out for the Republicans. Currently, it looks like the two strongest candidates are Ted Cruz and Donald Trump -- but the GOP race has been very volatile, and that volatility could continue even past Super-Tuesday.

The biggest prize on Super-Tuesday is probably Texas. On March 1st, Texas will choose 155 Republican delegates and 222 Democratic delegates. Another 30 delegates for Democrats will go to elected officials and Executive Committee members (which may or may not be uncommitted). That's a pretty good hunk of delegates for both parties, and they will be apportioned according to the vote percentages.

Here is a bit of background on Texas politics from the Fort Worth Star-Telegram:

Given its reputation as one of the nation’s reddest red states, non-Texans might be surprised that the Lone Star State was throughly dominated by Democrats from the end of the Civil War until well past the midpoint of the 20th century.

But Republicans began making gains in the late 1970s and have held power for the last two decades. The last Democratic governor was Ann Richards, who left office in 1995. The last time Texans voted for a Democrat for president was Jimmy Carter in 1976.

As the largest state in the March 1 Super Tuesday primaries, Texas could play a dominant role in the nomination fight in both parties. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who has longtime ties to Texas, has consistently held a solid lead among Democrats, aided by strong support among Hispanics, the state’s fastest-growing and most sought-after constituency.

On the Republican side, first-term U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz has maintained an unbroken hold among grassroots conservatives since he staged a come-from-behind Republican runoff victory over former Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst to win his Senate seat in 2012. 

That victory, fueled by the state’s take-no-prisoners Tea Party wing, immediately propelled Cruz into national prominence as an unpredictable Republican maverick. Poll after poll has showed Cruz leading as a presidential favorite in Texas, although Donald Trump has also surged. 

Although Texans are generally divided among Republicans, Democrats and independents, the majority seem to share a strong conservative streak reflected by a deep distrust of federal government and the general belief that state and local political leaders can do a better job confronting pressing problems than politicians in Washington. 

“Texans still have this kind of optimism and confidence in the way we’re doing things compared to the way everybody else is doing things,” said University of Texas professor Daron Shaw, who conducts the Texas Lyceum Poll. In the latest Lyceum Poll of Texas adults, conducted in September, only 18 percent identified themselves as liberals. Twenty-nine percent said they are moderates, and the most — 43 percent — said they are conservative.

Read more here: http://www.star-telegram.com/news/politics-government/election/article51880685.html#storylink=cpy

Super Tuesday Demonstrated Romney's Continuing Weakness

Much is being made of Romney winning six states on Super Tuesday, and some are saying he cannot be kept from getting the nomination now. That may be true, but I'm not ready to accept that yet. To me, Super Tuesday exposed the inherent weakness of the Romney campaign once again.

Just look at the chart above. Romney was able to get more than 40% of the vote in only three states on Super Tuesday, and none of them are anything to brag about. Idaho is a state with a very small population and Massachusetts is Romney's home state. But it is Virginia where his weakness really is highlighted. He got 59% of the vote in Virginia, but he was only one of two candidates on the ballot -- with Ron Paul being the other. And in that state, 41% voted for Paul (a much higher percentage than voted for him in any other state so far) rather than vote for Romney. That tells me they would prefer anyone over Romney.

In six other states, Romney was not able to reach the 40% mark -- and in four of them could not even reach the 30% mark. With all the talk of Romney's inevitability, he should be doing much better than that by now. It is clear that he has yet to win over the teabaggers (the ultra-conservatives) or the evangelicals (the religious right). Both groups voted against him on Super Tuesday.

And there is another group that voted against him (and has been voting against him since the primaries and caucuses started in January) -- rural voters. Romney does OK in the urban areas, but he consistently loses in rural counties. This should trouble the Republican leaders, because the urban areas will probably vote Democratic in November (as they usually do). The Republicans need for the rural voters to turn out in large numbers -- and they are in the process of nominating a candidate that turns off rural voters.

The Romney campaign has been trying to make a lot out of the fact that it would be extremely difficult for any of his opponents to get a majority of delegates -- maybe impossible. That could well be true. But what they can do (if all three of them say in the race) is keep Romney from getting a majority of the delegates either. That would lead to a brokered convention -- and it's anybody's guess as to what would happen then.

Maybe I'm just that lone voice crying out in the wilderness, but I still can't accept Romney's "inevitability". He must do better. And right now, I'm not at all sure that he can.

Super Tuesday Is A Mixed Bag

The results from Super Tuesday show that a lot of Republican voters still have doubts about Willard Mitt Romney (aka Wall Street Willie). Here are the numbers:

VIRGINIA (99% reporting)
Mitt Romney...............156,765  (59.44%)
Ron Paul...............106,992  (40.56%)
TOTAL VOTES...............263,757

GEORGIA (97% reporting)
Newt Gingrich...............414,896  (47.46%)
Mitt Romney...............224,361  (25.66%)
Rick Santorum...............171,346  (19.60%)
Ron Paul...............56,823  (6.50%)
Others...............6,839  (0.78%)
TOTAL VOTES...............874,265

MASSACHUSETTS (98% reporting)
Mitt Romney...............260,509  (72.09%)
Rick Santorum...............43,614  (12.07%)
Ron Paul...............34,575  (9.57%)
Newt Gingrich...............16,756  (4.64%)
Others...............5,927  (1.64%)
TOTAL VOTES...............361,381

OKLAHOMA (99% reporting)
Rick Santorum...............95,478  (33.77%)
Mitt Romney...............79,327  (28.06%)
Newt Gingrich...............77,770  (27.51%)
Ron Paul...............27,199  (9.62%)
Others...............2,944  (1.04%)
TOTAL VOTES...............282,718

NORTH DAKOTA (100% reporting)
Rick Santorum...............4,339  (39.99%)
Ron Paul...............2,938  (27.08%)
Mitt Romney...............2,639  (24.32%)
Newt Gingrich...............933  (8.60%)
TOTAL VOTES...............10,849

TENNESSEE (99% reporting)
Rick Santorum...............202,198  (37.30%)
Mitt Romney...............150,511  (27.77%)
Newt Gingrich...............130,689  (24.11%)
Ron Paul...............49,299  (9.10%)
Others...............9,325  (1.72%)
TOTAL VOTES...............542,022

OHIO (99% reporting)
Mitt Romney...............453,430  (37.99%)
Rick Santorum...............441,501  (36.99%)
Newt Gingrich...............174,456  (14.61%)
Ron Paul...............110,516  (9.26%)
Others...............13,780  (1.15%)
TOTAL VOTES...............1,193,683

VERMONT (93% reporting)
Mitt Romney...............22,632  (39.78%)
Ron Paul...............14,488  (25.46%)
Rick Santorum...............13,466  (23.67%)
Newt Gingrich...............4,636  (8.15%)
Others...............1,676  (2.95%)
TOTAL VOTES...............56,898

IDAHO (91% reporting)
Mitt Romney...............27,301  (63.74%)
Ron Paul...............7,675  (17.92%)
Rick Santorum...............6,920  (16.16%)
Newt Gingrich...............916  (2.14%)
Others...............17  (0.03%)
TOTAL VOTES...............42,829

ALASKA (95% reporting)
Mitt Romney...............4,167  (32.73%)
Rick Santorum...............3,704  (29.09%)
Ron Paul...............3,033  (23.82%)
Newt Gingrich...............1,798  (14.12%)
Others...............31  (0.24%)
TOTAL VOTES...............12,733

COMBINED SUPER TUESDAY VOTES
Mitt Romney...............1,381,642  (37.95%)
Rick Santorum...............982,566  (26.99%)
Newt Gingrich...............822,850  (22.60%)
Ron Paul...............413,538  (11.36%)
Others...............40,539  (1.11%)
TOTAL VOTES...............3,641,135

Mitt Romney came out of Super Tuesday winning more states and more delegates than the other candidates, but once again his weakness is apparent. He wasn't even able to get 40% of the Super Tuesday votes, which means over 60% of the people who voted yesterday preferred someone else -- even if that someone else is Santorum, Gingrich, or Paul. Romney still hasn't won over the teabaggers and evangelicals.

Super Tuesday Is Here

Today is the biggest day so far in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. That's because ten states (Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia) are voting and 419 delegates are up for grabs. Wall Street Willie (Willard Mitt Romney) would like for today to put him far ahead in the delegate count and once again give him the title of "inevitable nominee".

He is assured of victory in two state. Massachusetts because he was that state's governor, and Virginia because he and Paul are the only two candidates on the ballot. After that, anything could happen. That's what makes today so much fun. I'm guessing that the results will be rather muddled, with at least three candidates winning some states. The states with the most delegates today are Ohio and Georgia. Here are the latest polls:

RASMUSSEN POLL (Ohio)
Santorum..........32%
Romney..........31%
Gingrich..........13%
Paul..........13%

PUBLIC POLICY POLLING (Ohio)
Romney..........37%
Santorum..........36%
Gingrich..........15%
Paul..........11%

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL (Ohio)
Romney..........34%
Santorum..........31%
Gingrich..........15%
Paul..........12%

AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP POLL (Ohio)
Romney..........35%
Santorum..........28%
Gingrich..........18%
Paul..........13%

MERRIMAN POLL (Ohio)
Romney..........38%
Santorum..........33%
Gingrich..........18%
Paul..........8%

SUFFOLK UNIVERSITY POLL (Ohio)
Santorum..........37%
Romney..........33%
Gingrich..........16%
Paul..........8%

CNN/OPINION RESEARCH POLL (Ohio)
Santorum..........32%
Romney..........32%
Gingrich..........14%
Paul..........11%

RASMUSSEN POLL (Georgia)
Gingrich..........37%
Romney..........27%
Santorum..........18%
Paul..........10%

PUBLIC POLICY POLLING (Georgia)
Gingrich..........47%
Romney..........24%
Santorum..........19%
Paul..........8%

MASON-DIXON POLL (Georgia)
Gingrich..........38%
Romney..........24%
Santorum..........22%
Paul..........3%

AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP POLL (Georgia)
Gingrich..........44%
Romney..........24%
Santorum..........19%
Paul..........9%

PUBLIC POLICY POLLING (Tennessee)
Santorum..........34%
Romney..........29%
Gingrich..........27%
Paul..........8%

WE ASK AMERICA POLL (Tennessee)
Romney..........30%
Santorum..........29%
Gingrich..........29%
Paul..........12%

GOP Still Unsure About Wall Street Willie

We hear many pundits (even Republican pundits) saying these days that the GOP presidential nomination race will be a long one -- possibly even going to the convention without a clear winner. That's quite a change from a few months ago, when virtually all of them were ready to hand the nomination to Wall Street Willie (Willard Mitt Romney). The chart above gives us a clue as to why this is true.

Eleven states have voted so far (holding either a primary or a caucus), and Romney has reached 50% in one of those states -- Nevada. The only reason he holds a significant lead in delegates so far is because he won the only two states giving all their delegates to the primary winner -- Arizona and Florida. In all of the other states he has had to share delegates with his opponents, and in most of them will receive less than half of the delegates.

Romney should reach the 50% mark in a couple of states on Super Tuesday -- Massachusetts and Virginia. That's because Massachusetts is where he lives and served as governor, while only he and Ron Paul qualified to be on the Virginia ballot. In a lot of the other states voting on Super Tuesday, he is not likely to do nearly that well. He trails badly in Georgia, Oklahoma, and Tennessee. And Ohio is looking like a toss-up (but even if he wins there, he is probably not going to reach the 40% mark).

The fact of the matter is that old Wall Street Willie still has not been able to convince the majority of Republicans nationwide that he would make the best candidate. The establishment has accepted him, but the teabaggers and evangelicals are still looking for someone else -- and that's pretty bad considering the someone else is either Santorum or Gingrich.

Here are some of the latest polls for Super Tuesday states:

RASMUSSEN POLL (Tennessee)
Rick Santorum...............34%
Mitt Romney...............30%
Newt Gingrich...............18%
Ron Paul...............8%

AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP POLL (Tennessee)
Rick Santorum...............35%
Mitt Romney...............31%
Newt Gingrich...............20%
Ron Paul...............9%
Undecided...............5%

NBC NEWS/MARIST POLL (Ohio)
Rick Santorum...............34%
Mitt Romney...............32%
Newt Gingrich...............15%
Ron Paul...............13%
Undecided...............7%

REUTERS/IPSOS POLL (Ohio)
Rick Santorum...............32%
Mitt Romney...............32%
Newt Gingrich...............17%
Ron Paul...............6%

Wall Street Willie Wins Washington Caucuses

Wall Street Willie (Willard Mitt Romney) had a good day in Washington yesterday. He outperformed expectations and won the caucuses fairly handily. Ron Paul and Rick Santorum both had hopes of carrying the state, but wound up vying for second place. The final delegate totals for each candidate won't be official until the state convention, but they will roughly equal the percentages the candidates received yesterday. Here are the numbers for Washington:

WASHINGTON CAUCUS (94% reporting)
Mitt Romney...............17,275  (36.69%)
Ron Paul...............11,767  (24.99%)
Rick Santorum...............11,496  (24.41%)
Newt Gingrich...............4,995  (10.61%)
Uncommitted...............1,556  (3.30%)
TOTAL VOTES...............47,089

Here are the latest polls for some Super Tuesday states:

LANDMARK/ROSETTA STONE POLL (Georgia)
Newt Gingrich...............42%
Mitt Romney...............22%
Rick Santorum...............16%
Ron Paul...............5%
Undecided...............15%

YOU-GOV POLL (Georgia)
Newt Gingrich...............32%
Mitt Romney...............27%
Rick Santorum...............17%
Ron Paul...............10%
Undecided...............14%

YOU-GOV POLL (Ohio)
Rick Santorum..............33%
Mitt Romney...............27%
Newt Gingrich...............12%
Ron Paul...............9%
Undecided...............19%

YOU-GOV POLL (Tennessee)
Rick Santorum...............32%
Mitt Romney...............23%
Newt Gingrich...............16%
Ron Paul...............13%
Undecided...............15%

AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP POLL (Oklahoma)
Rick Santorum...............37%
Mitt Romney...............26%
Newt Gingrich...............22%
Ron Paul...............9%
Other/Undecided...............6%

YOU-GOV POLL (Oklahoma)
Rick Santorum...............28%
Mitt Romney...............25%
Newt Gingrich...............20%
Ron Paul...............8%
Undecided...............19%

YOU-GOV POLL (Massachusetts)
Mitt Romney...............56%
Rick Santorum...............16%
Newt Gingrich...............5%
Ron Paul...............5%
Undecided...............17%

Wall Street Willie Still Losing Ground

I have posted several times in the last few days about Willard Mitt Romney's (aka Wall Street Willie) problems in Michigan -- the state he grew up in. At least five polls are now showing that Rick Santorum has taken the lead in that state. Romney and his super-PAC are starting to spend big in Michigan, hoping to turn things around like they did in Florida-- but they need to act fast, because there are only 10 days left until Michigan votes on February 28th.

And Michigan is not Wall Street Willie's only problem. The latest poll out of Arizona (which also votes on February 28th) shows Santorum is surging in that state also. Only a couple of weeks ago, Romney had a 24 point lead in Arizona. Santorum has now whittled that down to 8 points, and with 10 days left to go, he could also put that state in play (even though Santorum has done very little campaigning in Arizona). Here are the latest Arizona numbers:

RASMUSSEN POLL
Mitt Romney...............39%
Rick Santorum...............31%
Newt Gingrich...............15%
Ron Paul...............7%
Other/undecided...............8%

It's still possible that Romney could win both Michigan and Arizona, but it would be close in both states -- and it is increasingly likely that he will lose at least one of them. That would mean he would need to do well on Super Tuesday (March 6th) to get his campaign back on track. But there are problems for Wall Street Willie on Super Tuesday also. A few days ago, a Georgia poll was released that showed Newt Gingrich is still leading in that state (his home state). Yesterday, the casino mogul who has already given Gingrich millions of dollars announced he is pumping another $10 million into the Gingrich super-PAC. That should allow Gingrich to keep Georgia in his column.

There is another big state that will vote on Super Tuesday that has a lot of delegates -- Ohio. But a new poll shows Romney doing even worse in Ohio than in the other states I've been discussing. He is now trailing Santorum by 18 points there. Here are the latest Ohio numbers:

RASMUSSEN POLL
Rick Santorum...............42%
Mitt Romney...............24%
Newt Gingrich...............13%
Ron Paul...............10%
Other/undecided...............11%

And things don't get any better for Wall Street Willie when you consider the national numbers. Just a couple of days ago, the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll showed Romney with a two point lead over Santorum. That has disappeared, and Romney now trails Santorum nationally by 4 points (34% to 30%).

It seems like every day this last week has uncovered more bad news for Wall Street Willie. He'd better turn this around pretty soon, or he may find himself just another also-ran (like Pawlenty, Bachmann, Cain, and Perry).

The Gingrich "Dream Team"

It's no secret that the campaign of Newt Gingrich is in serious trouble. Since his thrashing by "Wall Street Willie" Romney in the Florida primary, Gingrich has gone on to lose badly in Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota, and Maine (he wasn't on the Missouri ballot). He has also dropped sharply in all the nationwide polls. Clearly, something must be done to turn this around or Gingrich will soon be too far behind to even have a hope of catching up.

The one bright spot remaining for Gingrich is in his home state of Georgia. A new Mason-Dixon Poll in Georgia shows Gingrich still leads all of his competitors there. here are the current numbers:

Newt Gingrich...............43%
Mitt Romney...............29%
Rick Santorum...............12%
Ron Paul...............6%

Santorum's support may be undercounted, since part of the poll was conducted before he scored huge victories in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri (and many people thought he was already out of the race). But even if the above numbers hold up and Gingrich is able to win Georgia on Super Tuesday (March 6th), that is not going to be enough. Gingrich needs to win more delegates on Super Tuesday than Georgia has to offer.

And Gingrich thinks he has come up with an idea that will propel him back into the race. Todd J. Gillman of The Dallas Morning News is reporting that Gingrich has assembled a conservative "dream team" to campaign on his behalf. This "dream team" (pictured above) is composed of Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Chuck Norris, Fred Thompson, Michael Reagan, Kellyanne Conway, Linda Upmeyer, and J.C. Watts.

If this is the best he can come up with, we may well be witnessing the dying whimpers of the Gingrich campaign. None of these losers have shown they have the ability to swing even a small amount of voters, let alone perform the miracle that would be necessary to revive the Gingrich campaign.

It's Primary Day In Florida

Today is primary day in Florida, and that state will give all of their delegates to the person who finishes in first place tonight. That would be 50 delegates. Florida normally would have 99 delegates, but their number of delegates was cut in half because they retained their winner-take-all format (while the Republican Party says any state voting before April must have proportional delegates apportioning). Right now it looks like the person who will get those 50 delegates is Willard Mitt Romney (aka Wall Street Willie).

Wall Street Willie has done better in the last couple of debates, and that certainly helped him. But probably the biggest factor in his Florida rebound is his massive amount of money spent. In Florida, there has been $15.9 million spent on ads for Romney ($7 million by the Romney campaign and another $8.9 million by the Romney super-PAC), while only about $4 million was spent on ads for Gingrich ($1.2 million by the Gingrich campaign and another $2.8 by his super-PAC). That's a huge advantage for old Wall Street Willie.

Yesterday I posted five recent Florida polls, and all of them had Romney with a significant lead in that state. Now the Rasmussen Poll has released it's latest figures, and they verify what the other polls have been saying. Here are those numbers:

RASMUSSEN POLL
Mitt Romney...............44%
Newt Gingrich...............28%
Rick Santorum...............12%
Ron Paul...............10%
Other/Undecided...............6%

That takes care of the voting for January, and for Gingrich's best early voting chances. His next chances to make inroads into Romney's delegate count won't come until the end of February and the first week of March. Arizona and Michigan will hold their primaries on February 28th, and 10 more states will vote on March 6th (Super Tuesday). The question now is can Gingrich hold on until the end of February.

There are four caucuses in the first half of February -- in Nevada, Maine, Colorado, and Minnesota. There is also a primary in Missouri, but it is just a beauty contest and doesn't award any delegates. It is doubtful that Gingrich will do too well in those caucuses, since he just doesn't have the organization in place. Romney is organized in those states, but so is Ron Paul. And Ron Paul has shown an extraordinary ability to turn out his supporters for caucuses. If Paul is going to do much of anything this year, the next couple of weeks are his big chance to shine.

Here is the schedule through Super Tuesday:

February 4, 2012	Nevada (caucus)
February 4–11, 2012	Maine (caucus)
February 7, 2012	Colorado (caucus) Minnesota (caucus) Missouri (primary) – No delegates awarded
February 28, 2012	Arizona (primary) Michigan (primary)
March 3, 2012	Washington (caucus)
March 6, 2012 (Super Tuesday)	Alaska (caucus) Georgia (primary) Idaho (caucus) Massachusetts (primary) North Dakota (caucus) Ohio (primary) Oklahoma (primary) Tennessee (primary) Vermont (primary) Virginia (primary)

Preliminary Thoughts On Super Tuesday

Super Tuesday has come and gone, and we still don't have a Democratic candidate chosen. This is unprecedented. That means us late voters in Texas and Ohio (and probably even Pennsylvania) will actually have a say in who the nominee will be.

Even more exciting is the fact that there really isn't a true frontrunner. Both Clinton and Obama can claim victory from last night. Obama won the most states, but Clinton won the largest states. However, with the proportional representation in choosing delegates, they will probably finish the night virtually even in delegates. We won't know for sure for a day or so, but that looks like what will happen.

There was some doubt before Super Tuesday as to whether Obama could win states without large black populations, but he laid those doubts to rest by winning states like Minnesota, Kansas, Colorado, Utah, Idaho, North Dakota and Delaware. That makes this a real race to the finish -- maybe all the way to the convention.

So get ready Texans. It looks like this is still going to be open when it gets to us on March 4th. Who would have thought that would happen a few months ago? I'm excited!