Showing posts with label Alaska. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alaska. Show all posts

Monday, April 13, 2020

Biden Adds To His Delegate Total With Alaska Win


Joe Biden edged closer to officially winning the Democratic Party presidential nomination on Saturday. He won the primary in the state of Alaska.

Joe Biden...............55.3%
Bernie Sanders...............44.7%

19,759 total votes were cast in the state. Biden got 11 delegates to 4 for Sanders.

Monday, January 01, 2018

Majority Of Public Is Opposed To Drilling In The ANWR


One of the things slipped into the new tax law passed by the Republican Congress (and signed by Trump) is a provision that allows drilling for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) in Alaska. But like the tax law as a whole, a majority of Americans don't like this provision that will allow oil companies to desecrate our public land.

Only 35% think it's OK to drill for oil in the ANWR, while 53% say it's the wrong thing to do. Once again, the Republicans have done something the American people don't want. They claim it's to stop the dependence on foreign oil, but the public would rather see that accomplished by increasing the use of clean and renewable resources.

The chart above uses numbers from a recent Rasmussen Poll -- done on December 26th of a random national sample of 1,000 likely voters, with a 3 point margin of error.

Sunday, July 02, 2017

Nevada Becomes The 5th State For Legal Marijuana

(This map on legal marijuana is from governing.com.)

Yesterday (July 1st), Nevada became the fifth state where the sale and possession of small amounts of marijuana is legal. After passing the legalization initiative in the last election, Nevada joined four other states (Colorado, Washington, Oregon, and Alaska) in implementing that legalization. They expect the tax on marijuana sales to bring the state about $60 million in revenue in the next two years. I think that's probably a very low estimate.

By early next year, the number of states with legal marijuana will climb to eight states. Massachusetts, California, and Maine have all voted to legalize the gentle herb. The legalization will actually go into effect in Massachusetts on December 15th, in California on January 1st, and in Maine next February.

The genie is now out of the bottle -- and I expect several more states to jump on the legalization bandwagon in the next few years.

Sunday, March 27, 2016

Alaska, Hawaii, And Washington Hold Presidential Caucuses



Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington held their Democratic caucuses on Saturday and, as expected, Bernie Sanders did very well. Sanders has done well in caucuses in this campaign. He dominated the caucuses in all three states last night. Here are the results:

ALASKA

Clinton...............18.4%
Sanders...............81.6%

HAWAII

Clinton...............29.2%
Sanders...............70.6%

WASHINGTON

Clinton...............27.2%
Sanders...............72.6%

Sanders picked up more delegates than Clinton did tonight, which means he did cut into her delegate lead -- but not enough. Here are the current delegate totals:

Clinton...............1712
Sanders...............1004

That means Clinton has to get 671 more delegates to win the nomination. Sanders needs 1379 more delegates. Since there are 2,049 unallocated delegates, Clinton needs 32.7% of those unallocated delegates, while Sanders needs 67.3% of those delegates. Sanders has a Herculean task ahead of him -- especially considering Clinton is expected to do well in Wisconsin, New York, Pennsylvania, and Maryland (which are coming up soon).

Thursday, March 24, 2016

Alaska, Hawaii, And Washington Democrats Vote Saturday

The Democratic presidential nominating race marches on. Democrats in three more states will decide their presidential preference this coming Saturday, March 26th -- Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington.

Alaska has 16 delegates up for grab, while Hawaii has 25 and Washington has 101 delegates. Those states will send more to the convention, but those are the delegates that will be decided on Saturday.

All three of Saturday's states will be having a caucus, instead of a primary. That would seem to favor Bernie Sadners over Hillary Clinton. So far, in this year's campaign, Sanders has done better in the small state caucuses and Clinton has done better in the large state primaries.

But Sanders needs to do more than just win these three states. He needs to win them by a huge majority, so he can take most of the delegates at stake. Splitting the delegates with Clinton does him no good at this point. He needs to start cutting into the substantial delegate lead that Clinton currently has -- and he needs to do it before the large state primaries of April (like Wisconsin, New York, Connecticut, Maryland, and Pennsylvania).

Here are the Bloomberg Politics delegate totals for Clinton and Sanders:

CAUCUS / PRIMARY DELEGATES
Clinton...............1223
Sanders...............920
difference...............303

ALL DELEGATES
Clinton...............1690
Sanders...............946
difference...............744

(NOTE -- The caricature of Clinton and Sanders above is by DonkeyHotey.)

Saturday, October 10, 2015

Marijuana Sales In Oregon Set Record (While Marijuana Arrests Nationwide Are Up)


The legal sale of marijuana has now begun in Oregon, and those sales are breaking records. The previous record for first week sales was about $5 million in Colorado. But the first week sales in Oregon more than doubled Colorado's sales -- coming in at about $11 million dollars.

Oregon officials had originally thought they would gather about $9 million in taxes from marijuana sales, but after the huge first week sales, that number could go as high as $36 million. That's money that won't have to be raised on other forms of taxation.

Oregon, Colorado, Washington, and soon Alaska, are the first to legalize the possession and use of marijuana for adults, but I believe several other states will join them in the next few years. This is just something that makes sense. Marijuana is safer than any other drug -- including ALL legal drugs. It is not addictive, cannot be overdosed on, and doesn't affect driver safety. And the tax benefit is huge (and so could the job creation if many more states join these four).

But while some states understand the benefits of marijuana legalization, many other (and the federal DEA) do not. They continue to ruin the lives of many people, and continue to throw money away by making marijuana arrests. Consider the following:

An estimated 700,993 arrests were made nationwide for marijuana-related offenses in 2014 — up from 693,058 in 2013 — of which 88.42% were for possession. On average, one person was arrested for a marijuana-related offense in the U.S. approximately every 45 seconds (every 51 seconds for possession).

While law enforcement was busy making nearly three quarters of a million marijuana arrests, more than 35% of murders went unsolved, the clearance rate for rape was less than 40%, and for robbery and property crimes, it was below 30%. 

This is insanity. It is a waste of both jail and prison space, and a waste of law enforcement resources. If police weren't wasting time chasing after marijuana users, they could spend more time chasing other types of criminal offenders -- criminals that actually do harm to victims and the country. And we would have the prison space to put those criminals away when they were caught.


Sunday, November 09, 2014

Majority In U.S. Still Wants Marijuana Legalized


On election day, the number of states that have voted to legalize marijuana doubled -- as Oregon and Alaska join Colorado and Washington in legalizing the recreational use and possession of marijuana for adults. The District of Columbia also voted to legalize the gentle herb, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the Republican Congress overturn the will of the people in D.C.

And there's a good chance that some other states will soon follow suit, since a majority of Americans nationally still support legalization. It will probably be states from either the East or the West, since 57% of the people in those regions support it. It will probably take a little long for voters in the South (47%) and Midwest (45%) to get on board.

The chart above was made from information in a recent Gallup Poll -- done between October 12th and 15th of a random national sample of 1,017 adults, with a 4 point margin of error.

Thursday, November 06, 2014

Marijuana Did Well On Election Night

(This image is from the website of Forbes Magazine.)

There was a bright spot in the 2014 election. The various proposals regarding marijuana in the states and cities where it was on the ballot did very well. We have now doubled the number of states where the recreational possession and use of marijuana is legal -- as Alaska and Oregon join Washington and Colorado, and some cities in the places followed suit. Here is how marijuana issues fared on election night, according to the Marijuana Policy Project:

* Oregon and Alaska became the third and fourth states to legalize marijuana for adults 21 and older and establish systems in which it will be regulated and taxed similarly to alcohol. Measure 91 was approved by more than 54% of Oregon voters (as of last night’s count), and Ballot Measure 2 in Alaska was ultimately approved 52-48. MPP was the largest contributor to the Alaska campaign — financially and in terms of donating staff support — and I’d like to thank everyone who helped us score this huge victory.

      * Voters in Washington, D.C. approved Initiative 71 by a margin of 65-28, removing all penalties for possession and home cultivation of limited amounts of marijuana by adults 21 years of age and older. This was the largest approval rate of any marijuana policy reform initiative in history!

          * South Portland, Maine voters approved a measure 52-48 making it the second city on the East Coast — and the second major city in Maine — to make marijuana legal for adults at the local level. A similar initiative received 45% of the vote in Lewiston, and although it didn’t win, it helped generate substantial news coverage and public dialogue. MPP ran both of the campaigns — as well as the successful campaign in Portland last year — to build support for a statewide legalization initiative we will be supporting in 2016. 

              * About 58% of Florida voters approved Amendment 2, which would have allowed seriously ill people to access medical marijuana if their doctors recommend it. Unfortunately, it failed because 60% approval was required for adoption. Backers of the initiative have pledged to continue working to pass a medical marijuana law next year in the legislature and, if necessary, a ballot initiative in 2016.

                  * In Massachusetts, 14 districts approved Public Policy Questions directing their state representatives to support making marijuana legal for adults. While non-binding, they set the stage for a 2016 statewide ballot initiative to regulate marijuana like alcohol that MPP will be supporting.

                      * Voters in the Michigan cities of Saginaw, Port Huron, Mt. Pleasant, Berkley, Huntington Woods, and Pleasant Ridge approved measures to decrease or remove penalties for simple marijuana possession. 

                          * Guam became the first U.S. territory to approve an initiative that would allow seriously ill residents to use medical marijuana in the treatment of debilitating medical conditions.

                          Sunday, October 26, 2014

                          Poll On Alaska Senate Race


                          Alaska Public Opinion Research Survey

                          Will Marijuana Be Legalized In Alaska ?


                          The following chart was made from the recent Alaska Public Opinion Research Survey (done by Hellenthal & Associates). The survey was taken between October 15th and 21st of a random sample of 403 Alaska voters, and has a margin of error of 4.88 points.

                          I am a strong advocate of the legalization of marijuana for recreational (and medicinal) use by adults -- and it's taxation by government. So I'm interested in the vote that Alaska will soon be taking -- a vote that could legalize marijuana in that state (somewhat similar to what Colorado has done). I was somewhat buoyed by the results of this survey.

                          The survey shows legalization being preferred by 46.5%, and opposed by 42.2% of Alaskans -- a difference of about 4.3 points. That gives me hope that soon Alaska will join Colorado and Washington -- and that could help encourage other states to follow suit.

                          But it's not time to pop the champagne corks though. That 4.3 point lead is within the survey's 4.88 point margin of error -- which means the lead could be larger, or there could be no lead at all. I guess we'll just have to hold our breath and see what happens on election day.

                          Wednesday, September 24, 2014

                          More Polling On Senate Races


                          This is from a Public Policy Polling survey taken on September 18th and 19th of 652 likely New Hampshire voters, with a margin of error of about 4 points.


                          This is from a Public Policy Polling survey done on September 18th and 19th of 852 likely Michigan voters, with a margin of error of about 3.4 points.


                          This is from a High Point University Poll done between September 13th and 18th of 410 North Carolina voters, and has a margin of error of about 5 points.


                          This is from a Public Policy Polling survey done between September 18th and 21st of 880 likely Alaska voters, and has a margin of error of around 4 points.


                          This is from a Public Policy Polling survey done between September 18th and 21st of 1,453 likely Arkansas voters, with a 2.6 point margin of error.

                          Friday, September 19, 2014

                          More Polls On Various 2014 U.S. Senate Races


                          This is from a Fox News Poll done between September 14th and 16th of 604 likely Kansas voters, with a margin of error of 4 points.


                          This is from a Fox News Poll done between September 14th and 16th of 605 likely North Carolina voters, with a margin of error of 4 points.


                          This is from a Fox News Poll done between September 14th and 16th of 617 likely Louisiana voters, with a margin of error of 4 points.


                          This is from a Fox News Poll done between September 14th and 16th of 600 likely Iowa voters, with a margin of error of 4 points.


                          This is from a Quinnipiac University Poll done between September 10th and 15th of 1,167 likely voters, with a 2.9 point margin of error.


                          This is from a Quinnipiac University Poll done between September 10th and 15th of 1,211 likely Colorado voters, with a margin of error of 2.8 points.


                          This is from a Rasmussen Poll done on September 15th and 16th of 750 likely Georgia voters, with a margin of error of 4 points.


                          This is from a Hays Research Group Poll done on September 13th and 14th of 500 likely Alaska voters, with a margin of error of 4.38 points.


                          This is a Vanguard Public Affairs Poll done between September 11th and 13th of 600 Michigan voters, with a margin of error of 4 points.

                          Wednesday, September 17, 2014

                          Senate Races - N. Hampshire, N. Carolina, Alaska, Kansas


                          This chart is from a Rasmussen Poll -- done on September 10th and 11th of 750 likely New Hampshire voters, with a 4 point margin of error.


                          This chart was made from an American Research Group Poll -- done between September 12th and 15th of 544 registered New Hampshire voters, with a margin of error of 4.2 points.


                          This chart was made from a Public Policy Polling survey -- done between September 11th and 14th of 1,266 likely North Carolina voters, with a margin of error of 2.8 points.


                          This chart was made from a Harstad Strategic Research Poll -- done between September 7th and 10th of 709 Alaska voters (and the margin of error is not known).


                          This survey is from Public Policy Polling -- and was done between September 11th and 14th of 1,328 likely Kansas voters, and has a margin of error of 2.7 points.

                          Yesterday, I brought you a CNN Poll that said the New Hampshire senate race between Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen and Republican Scott Brown was a dead heat -- with each having 48% of the predicted vote. I said at that time that the poll could be an outlier, since Shaheen has been leading in all the other previous polls -- and said we needed to look at some more surveys to know the truth.

                          Now we have two new polls on the New Hampshire senate race. The Rasmussen Poll gives Shaheen a significant 6 point lead, while the American Research Group Poll sets her lead at 2 points (which is within the margin of error of the poll). I think Shaheen does still have a lead in this race, but it seems that the race has tightened -- and it will require close watching in the next few weeks.

                          Public Policy Polling verifies what other polls have shown -- that Kay Hagan does have the lead in North Carolina. They put that lead at 4 points, which exceeds their margin of error. Also of interest is a new poll in Alaska that shows Democrat Mark Begich with a 5 point lead. I do think Begich has a small lead in Alaska, but I don't know how significant a lead it is (since the poll didn't give its margin of error).

                          Perhaps the most interesting race is the one in Kansas. Democrat Chad Taylor, realizing he can't win and the Independent Greg Orman has a chance, dropped out of the race. The Republicans have done their best to keep Taylor on the ballot, because they are scared of Orman -- and the case is currently awaiting a Kansas Supreme Court decision on whether Taylor's name will stay on the ballot or be removed. It may not make any difference though. A new Public Policy Polling survey has Orman beating Roberts by 7 points (41% to 34%) even with Taylor still a choice. This is a race that Republicans thought was a sure thing a few months ago -- and now it looks very likely they will lose this seat.

                          Friday, May 16, 2014

                          Presidential Preference - North Carolina And Alaska



                          I have been bringing you the results of surveys of Republicans in various states as to their preference for president in 2016. Now  results have been reported from two new states -- North Carolina and Alaska. As you can see from the charts above, these two states reflect the same thing that has been reported from other states -- that there is still no favorite among Republicans for their nomination in 2016. No Republican hopeful in either state is able to record even 20% support.

                          I did find it interesting that if the election was held right now, Hillary Clinton would get North Carolina's 15 electoral votes, while the Republican candidate would wind up with Alaska's 3 electoral votes (unless it was Palin, who would lose to Clinton). Here's how Hillary would fare against the top GOP hopefuls in each state:

                          NORTH CAROLINA

                          Clinton...............45%
                          Bush...............42%

                          Clinton...............44%
                          Christie...............40%

                          Clinton...............47%
                          Huckabee...............43%

                          Clinton...............45%
                          Paul...............44%

                          ALASKA

                          Clinton...............41%
                          Bush...............47%

                          Clinton...............41%
                          Christie...............44%

                          Clinton...............42%
                          Huckabee...............43%

                          Clinton...............44%
                          Palin...............41%

                          Clinton...............40%
                          Paul...............46%

                          The Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina questioned 877 registered voters between May 9th and 11th, with a 3.3 point margin of error (394 GOP primary voters, with a 4.9 point margin of error).

                          The Public Policy Polling survey in Alaska questioned 582 registered voters between May 8th and 11th, with a margin of error of 4.1 points (313 GOP primary voters, with a margin of error of 5.5 points).

                          Wednesday, May 14, 2014

                          Two More Senate Seats Look Tough For The GOP To Win

                          Yesterday I posted about three senate seats the Republicans thought they could easily win on their road to taking over the U.S. Senate -- Arkansas, Kentucky, and Georgia. They thought, since these were all red states, that they could snatch the Arkansas seat away from the Democrats and hold on to their seats in Kentucky and Georgia -- and they really needed all three of those seats to have a chance to take the Senate. Unfortunately for the GOP, that's not going so well right now. Polls show the Democrat with a good lead in Arkansas, and both the Kentucky and Georgia seats are a dead heat between the two parties.

                          Now there is more bad news for the GOP. They were really counting on winning two seats currently held by Democrats in other red states -- North Carolina and Alaska. Polls show the incumbent Democrats leading in both states -- with Kay Hagan holding a tiny 2 point lead in North Carolina, and Mark Begich holding a more substantial lead against all the Republicans hopefuls in Alaska (which hasn't held its primary yet).

                          The chart above shows the demographic breakdown of the North Carolina race. The chart below shows how Begich is doing against the various Republicans (and others).


                          The Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina was done between May 9th and 11th of 877 registered voters, and has a margin of error of 3.3 points.

                          The Public Policy Polling survey in Alaska was done between May 8th and 11th of 582 registered voters, and has a margin of error of 4.1 points.