Uncommitted Vote In Michigan Is OK - But It Won't Be In Nov.

Michigan held its Democratic primary on Tuesday. The outcome was good for President Biden. He got about 81% of the vote and all (or nearly all) of the available delegates. It puts him one step closer to getting the nomination.

About 13% of the primary voters (mostly young voters and Muslims) voted uncommitted. They did that as a protest because they are unhappy with how President Biden is handling the war in Gaza. They want the present to force a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

I have no problem with those who voted for uncommitted. They have the right to protest and the right to vote as they please. And they are right that cease-fire is badly needed in Gaza. Thousands of innocent Gaza residents have been killed (many of them children), and more are dying every day. They also aren't getting the food, shelter, and medical care they need.

But they are wrong if they think President Biden could force a cease-fire. All he can do is try to pressure both sides to come to an agreement about a cease-fire. He is doing that, but so far, both sides are refusing to agree. Currently, Biden is trying to arrange a temporary cease-fire (in the hope it could develop into a permanent one) and the release of hostages. He is also pressuring Israel to allow more aid to the residents of Gaza. And he has said a two-state solution is needed and Jewish West Bank settlements are illegal.

At least some of the uncommitted voters are saying if President Biden doesn't do what they want (force a cease-fire), they will also refuse to vote for him in November. It is there right to vote as they please or not vote at all -- but that would be a huge mistake.

Michigan is a state that Biden won by a small margin, and withholding their votes could give Donald Trump the edge he needs to carry the state in November. It could also give him the electoral college majority (like in 2016).

That would be disastrous for the people of Gaza. Trump is a Muslin-hater (and even tried to deny Muslims entry into the U.S. during his first term). He is also a big fan of Netanyahu. Trump would fully support Netanyahu's genocidal war on Gaza. Trump also supports the West Bank settlements and does not support a two-state solution. 

Another term for Trump would be terrible for the Palestinians of Gaza (and the West Bank). If the uncommitted voters were really trying to help the residents of Gaza, then refusing to vote in November would be a very stupid move! 

Trump Wins South Carolina (But Shows Some Weakness)

 

Donald Trump won the South Carolina Republican primary in a 60% to 40% decision over Nikki Haley. But he showed some weakness. Most pundits and polls had him winning upwards of 70% of the vote.

Exit polling showed where some of the weakness existed. Trump lost 53% of college educated voters, 41% of Republican women, 73% of moderates, 60% of Independents, and 54% of non-evangelicals.

I expect most of the Haley voters will hold their nose and vote for Trump in November, but it won't take many to vote Biden, vote third party, or just stay at home to deny him the presidency.

New Poll Has Trump With A 36 Point Lead In South Carolina

 This chart is from the Winthrop University Poll - done between February 2nd and 10th of 749 likely Republican primary voters, with a 3.58 point margin of error.

Trump Has A Huge Lead Over Haley In South Carolina

This chart is from the CBS News / YouGov Poll -- done between February 5th and 10th of 1,004 likely Republican voters in South Carolina, with a 4.4 point margin of error.
 

Trump Still Has A Huge Lead Over Haley In South Carolina

The chart above is from the Washington Post / Monmouth University Poll -- done between January 26th and 30th of 815 potential Republican primary voters in South Carolina, with a 3.9 point margin of error.

Picking A Candidate In Iowa In The Winter (Satire)

In this bit of satire, Alexandra Petri (The Washington Post)  pokes fun at starting the presidential primary in Iowa in the winter. She writes:

Time for a civics lesson! In the United States, what is the first step we take to decide who gets to be on the ballot for president?

Simple! We have all the people who want to run for president go to Iowa for, say, 11 months. First, we have them eat corn under intense scrutiny and be photographed sliding down a large slide. (This must tell us something important about them — perhaps how quickly they could get down from an international summit?) They then go to a lot of event centers and restaurants and shake hands and give stump speeches as the weather gets steadily colder.

And then, we pick a weekend — ideally in the middle of January. A holiday weekend when it is so cold and snowy that Iowa, a place that is actually accustomed to snow, begins Friday by canceling school. A weekend when the local weather team is urgently telling you not to leave home if you can possibly help it, because if you are outside for five minutes with any exposed skin, you will develop frostbite. A weekend when the weather is anticipated to hit minus-25 degrees with wind chill, and minus-2 without it — a temperature so low that I had to check that it was, indeed, in Fahrenheit, given that water freezes at 32 degrees. I don’t know what water does at minus-2 degrees, but I guess I will find out!

And to close out that specific holiday weekend, we see who gets the most people to go to a middle school auditorium at night and, after listening to a series of speeches, vote for them. And this is how we winnow down who gets to be on the ballot for the whole country!

I see some problems with this system. I would see more problems with it, but the visibility is not very good here with all the snow. It is like being in a snow globe that someone has shaken vigorously, except you cannot turn things upside down to get them to stop. I spent a few minutes outside trying to see whether I could get coffee, and when I returned, I looked like the last survivor of a failed polar expedition. I felt as though I should apologize to all the boosters of my expedition for not finding the Northwest Passage.

And it is a balmy 18 degrees now! I am going to long for these temperatures come Monday, the day of the actual caucuses! But still, it is already so bad out there that not just Nikki Haley, not just Vivek Ramaswamy, not just Donald Trump, but even Ron DeSantis’s Never Back Down PAC (which has “Never Back Down” in the name) have been calling off events.

Look, it is barely an insult to the Republican candidates to say that it is difficult to imagine being excited enough by any of them to want to go outside in this weather. "We need an accountant in the White House!” is hardly an applause line in a warm room with a bar in it.

I can imagine, perhaps, being excited enough by Haley’s candidacy that I would go to a coffee shop in normal temperatures, if I already wanted to go. I cannot imagine getting 10 friends to come out with me in a sub-zero snowstorm to caucus for Haley. I can barely get 10 friends to come do fun things in normal conditions.

And this is how we wind up with Trump! He is a threat to our democracy, something he keeps excitedly shouting at rallies and having his followers intimate in menacing voicemails to the judges evaluating cases against him. Fortunately, there are many ways of stopping him from becoming the next president. Unfortunately, there are many ways of stopping him from becoming the next president, which means that each individual time, you can say to yourself, “Eh, it’s too cold. I’ll get the next one.”

Look, I think it’s bad any time there is an obstacle to voting. So I already do not love the caucuses, a system that requires people to be available for an extended period of time on a weeknight, something that I have discovered, as a parent, is literally impossible. Candidly, I do not think that, in order to express a preference about who gets to be the next president, you should have to load up a sled behind a team of huskies, wrap yourself in approximately 48 layers of insulation, announce, “I am just going outside and may be some time,” and find a babysitter on a Monday night. Hell of a way to choose a president!

No. This is far too cold for Hell.

Republicans Don't Trust Vote Counting In Their Own Primary

The chart above is from the AP / NORC Poll -- done between November 30th and December 4th of a nationwide sample of 1,074 adults, with a 4 point margin of error.
 

Biden And Trump Maintain Large Leads In Their Primaries

 

The charts above reflect the results of the latest Quinnipiac University Poll -- done between December 14th and 18th. 683 Democratic voters were questioned (with a 3.8 point margin of error). 702 Republican voters were questioned (with a 3.7 point margin of error).

Biden And Trump Maintain Large Lead Over Opponents

The charts above reflect the results of the new Quinnipiac University Poll -- done between September 28th and October 2nd of a nationwide sample of 711 registered Republicans (3.7 point margin of error) and 759 registered Democrats (3.6 point margin of error).

Trump And Biden Both Hold Strong Primary Leads

These charts reflect the results of the new Quinnipiac University Poll -- done between September 7th and 11th of a nationwide sample of 728 Republican primary voters and 724 Democratic primary voters. The margin of error for both groups is 3.6 points.

Trump Still Has The Loyalty Of Half The GOP

The chart above is from the New York Times / Siena College Poll -- done between July 5th and 7th of a nationwide sample of 350 Republican primary voters.

You might think that Trump only having the support of half the party would show he is in trouble, but just the opposite is true. No one is close to him, and all of the other candidates must share the remaining half of GOP votes. The closest to Trump is DeSantis, with only 25% (24 point behind Trump).

Unless the remaining candidates can cut significantly into Trump's 49% support, he will be the party's nominee.

Biden And Trump Both Have Large Primary Leads

 

The charts above are from the Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll -- done on May 17th and 18th of a nationwide sample of 2,004 registered voters (no margin of error given).

New Poll Has Trump With A 33 Point Primary Lead

This chart is from the Morning Consult Poll -- done between April 7th and 9th of a nationwide sample of 3,608 potential Republican primary voters, with a 1-2 point margin of error. 

Kansas Shows Abortion Is A Potent Force In 2022 Election

Pundits have been wondering whether the banning of abortion in many states is going to be an important factor in the upcoming midterm election. Kansas voters answered that question on Tuesday night. The voter turnout was more than twice as big there as in the last two off-year primaries -- and voters made sure that abortion would remain available by rejecting a constitution amendment that would allow abortion to be banned. And it wasn't even close, with pro-choice forces winning by about 18 points!

The following is part of an op-ed on this by Jennifer Rubin in The Washington Post:

A political earthquake shook Kansas on Tuesday. Voters in the deep-red state turned out in droves to reject a measure that would have taken abortion protection out of the state constitution. With more than 90 percent of the vote reported, the “no” vote (which would preserve abortion access) led by nearly 20 points as of Wednesday morning.

President Biden put out a rare statement on a state referendum, praising the turnout and result. “Voters in Kansas turned out in record numbers to reject extreme efforts to amend the state constitution to take away a woman’s right to choose and open the door for a state-wide ban,” he said. “This vote makes clear what we know: the majority of Americans agree that women should have access to abortion and should have the right to make their own health care decisions.” He urged Congress to “listen to the will of the American people and restore the protections of Roe as federal law.”

This is the first concrete evidence of a major backlash against the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision. Forced-birth advocates in Kansas thought that by putting the measure on a primary ballot, for which turnout is historically lower, conservative voters could dominate. Instead, they drove Democrats and a lot of pro-choice independents and Republicans who might not otherwise vote to the polls.

Republicans in other states should pay attention to Tuesday’s results. They have been zealously passing bans in states such as Kentucky and Louisiana, and severely restricting access in others such as Florida. There is still time for lawmakers in some states to heed the warning from Kansas. . . .

In the wake of Kansas, states should also consider how abortion bans affect the medical profession. Wisner emphasizes that the mental health toll on doctors and other medical personnel, already stressed to the breaking point with covid, will increase as their caseloads rise dramatically in abortion-safe states. In red states, they’ll be forced to weigh the needs of patients against their own risk of prosecution. She expects “burnout” to escalate.

Kansas, however, provides an alternative outcome to the parade of disasters. Voters there have sounded a wake-up call for lawmakers to consider not only the unpopularity of bans but also the wave of suffering they will unleash. The Kansas vote should prompt states to pause before joining the forced-birth movement.

Texas Had A Poor Turnout In Its Party Primaries

 From the Texas Observer

Ohio Primary Results

The state of Ohio finally held its primary, and they did it with mail-in voting. Here are the results with 69% of the vote counted:


Joe Biden...............73.8%

Bernie Sanders...............15.2%

Sanders Endorses Biden - Urges Voters To Elect Him

Senator Bernie Sanders didn't repeat his mistake of 2016. On Monday, he appeared on a Biden virtual campaign event and gave him his endorsement for president. He said:

“Today I am asking all Americans. I’m asking every Democrat, I’m asking every independent, I’m asking a lot of Republicans to come together in this campaign to support your candidacy, which I endorse, to make certain that we defeat somebody who I believe, and I'm speaking just for myself, now is the most dangerous president in the modern history of this country."

“We’ve got to make Trump a one-term president, and we need you in the White House." 

“I will do all that I can to see that that happens. It's imperative that all of us work together to do what has to be done. Not only in this moment, but beyond this moment in the future of this country."

--------------------------------------

It probably doesn't matter much anymore, since the Democrats seem to have their presidential nominee (Joe Biden), but the state of Wisconsin released the vote totals on Monday from last weeks primary. Here's how it came out (with 95% of the votes counted).

Joe Biden..............63.4%
Bernie Sanders...............31.3%

At the same time as the primary, there was also an election for a slot on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. It was expected that the far-right candidate, Daniel Kelly (backed by Donald Trump), would win a slim victory over liberal Jill Karofsky. But Wisconsin voters had a different idea. They elected Karofsky (54% to 46%).

Biden Adds To His Delegate Total With Alaska Win

Joe Biden edged closer to officially winning the Democratic Party presidential nomination on Saturday. He won the primary in the state of Alaska.

Joe Biden...............55.3%
Bernie Sanders...............44.7%

19,759 total votes were cast in the state. Biden got 11 delegates to 4 for Sanders.

Court Overrules Gov. - Wisconsin Holds Dangerous Primary

(This photo of Wisconsin voters lining up to vote is from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.)

The primary in Wisconsin looks like a political game of ping-pong. The governor (Tony Evers) had tried to get the primary delayed due to the Coronavirus pandemic. But the Republicans in the legislature blocked that. After the legislature adjourned so no action could be taken, the governor finally acted on his own. He delayed the primary until June 9th.

But the legislature wasn't going to take that lying down. They appealed the governor's action to the state's Supreme Court. That court, dominated by Republicans, overruled the governor and said the primary must be held on April 7th.

So, in spite of the pandemic, the primary was held yesterday in Wisconsin. It was, as one website reported, probably the most dangerous election held in this country. But the voters turned out anyway.

The results won't be known for a while. The court ruled that any mail-in ballots postmarked by April 7th and arriving by April 13th )next Monday) must be counted, So the election officials have said no voting totals will be released until April 13th.

Wisconsin Governor Delays The Primary Until June

I had thought Wisconsin would be having their primary today, but at the last minute Governor Tony Evers (pictured) delayed the primary until June 9th. Evers had been saying for weeks that he did not have the authority to delay the primary, but after the legislature refused to delay it, he changed his mind and did it.

About 1.2 million residents of the state had already requested absentee (mail-in) ballots, and Governor Evers said voters could continue to request those ballots until the new primary date.