Presidential Voting In Texas

 

The election left no doubt that Texas, despite Democratic hopes, is still a bright red state. Donald Trump carried the state over Kamala Harris by a whopping 14 point margin. While I wish the outcome had been different, I can accept those results. Voters have the right to vote as they want.

But I am very disappointed in another statistics. Out of 18,623,931 registered voters in the state, only 59% bothered to cast a vote. About 41% of Texas voters couldn't be bothered to take a little time to vote!

Texas has always been a low voter turnout state. But that's no excuse. That 41% of non-voters should be ashamed of themselves!

Early Voting

 

Texas Early Voting

 Early Voting continues in Texas through November 1st.

Texas Early Voting

 Texas early voting runs through November 1st.

Texas Early Voting

Early voting in Texas goes through November 1st.
 

Texas Early Voting

Early voting continues through November 1st.
 

New Poll Shows The Texas Senate Race Is Very Close

The chart above reflects the results of the Emerson College Poll -- done between October 18th and 21st of 815 likely voters in Texas, with a 3.4 point margin of error. 

After Two Days Of Early Voting In Texas The Turnout Is Huge!

If Democrats are to have a chance in Texas, there must be a huge turnout of voters. It looks like that might be happening. Early voting in the first two days of the 12 day early voting period has seen 1,615,885 people voting early, and another 173,451 mail-in ballots received. That's 9.61% of the state's registered voters in only two days (according to the office of the Texas Secretary of State).

Will Texas Voters Kick Ted Cruz Out Of The Senate?

Texas is a red state, but Republican Ted Cruz is very unpopular - and this year he's in the closest race of his life. He could actually lose! Here's how Olivia Messer and Billy Begala at MSNBC see the Texas Senate race:

There’s a reason no Democrat has accomplished a statewide victory in Texas since 1994.

Pulling off such an upset would require a uniquely talented politician running an almost perfect campaign. That candidate would need to display discipline, calm and poise. Be telegenic and quick on the feet. The candidate would need to be thoroughly Texan and have an identity infused with elements of the state’s cultural zeitgeist. The person would need to run in a halfway decent national political environment. And even with all of those boxes checked, that rare Democrat would still need to square off against an extraordinarily disliked Republican running a lackluster campaign without much support from the person's own colleagues.

Enter: Rep. Colin Allred.

Allred’s remarkable debate performance Tuesday spawned a flurry of Instagram slides, TikTok videos and X posts. Both in Texas and nationwide, news feeds have been flush this week with clips of the former professional football player rebuking Sen. Ted Cruz for hiding in a “supply closet” during the attempted insurrection at the U.S. Capitol — a riot by a mob that Cruz himself helped whip up. Others showed him repeatedly referencing the time Cruz flew to Cancun, Mexico, as hundreds of Texans died during the middle of a winter freeze, or hammering him on his abortion stance — an issue critical to white female voters who have been abandoning the GOP in droves. 

But an impressive debate performance alone is not enough for a Democrat to win a state like Texas. However, polls, fundraising and a changing political climate have all looked promising for Allred. Today, Texas Democrats are in an extraordinary situation, one that has proved elusive over the past three decades: They have an actual chance of winning a statewide race.

As of Thursday, FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls had Cruz stuck at 48.4%. A Morning Consult survey released Thursday showed Allred down by just 1 point. An internal memo from the Senate Leadership Fund — the Mitch McConnell-aligned super PAC focused on electing Republicans to the Senate — had Cruz up by only 1 point. A different polling memo released by the National Republican Senatorial Committee omitted any information on the race. If the numbers were too bad to share, that’s certainly a worrying sign for Cruz. . . .

The last time Texans had a race this close, this late in the election, was Cruz’s re-election bid in 2018, in which he narrowly beat O’Rourke by less than 3 points. But that year, the senator’s polling looked rosier then than it does today. In the world of campaign politics, any incumbent stuck under 50% in the polls when votes are days away is leaving the door open to a loss. . . .

To get to 50% + 1, Allred will need to run up the score in urban centers, especially among voters of color. He’ll also need to persuade swing-y South Texas Hispanic voters and he’ll need to do that while maintaining the favor of white, college-educated suburban voters.

It’s a huge mountain to climb — and one that hasn’t been summited in 30 years. But if Allred doesn’t emerge victorious, he’s still carried Democrats further than any other candidate in recent memory.

Presidential And Senate Races Are Closer Than Expected In Texas

 

The charts above are from the University of Texas at Austin Texas Politics Project Poll -- done between October 2nd and 10th of a random sample of 1,091 likely Texas voters, with a 2.97 point margin of error.

New Polls Show The Texas Senate Race Is Close

This chart reflects the result of the New York Times / Siena College Poll -- done between September 29th and October 6th of a random sample of 617 voters in Texas, with a 4.8 point margin of error.

This chart reflects the result of the Marist Poll -- done between Ocyober 3rd and 7th of a random sample of 1,500 Texas adults, with a 3.2 point margin of error.

 

Another Poll Shows The Texas Senate Race Is Very Close

 

The charts above are from the Clean and Prosperous America / Public Policy Polling survey -- done on September 25th and 26th of 759 registered Texas voters, with a 3.5 point margin of error.

Deaths From Pregnancy / Childbirth Have Surged In Texas

 The following is part of an article in The Texas Tribune:

The rate of Texas women who died because of pregnancy or childbirth rose sharply in 2020 and 2021 to the highest since the state started tracking maternal deaths in 2013. Even excluding deaths related to COVID-19, the numbers were worse than usual, reversing two years of progress in driving the maternal mortality rate downwards.

The Texas Maternal Mortality and Morbidity Review Committee released its report this month analyzing pregnancy-related deaths within one year of childbirth. The committee, which works on a several year delay, closely analyzed cases from 2020.

The maternal mortality rate in 2020 was 27.7 deaths per 100,000 live births, compared to 17.2 in 2019. With COVID-related deaths excluded, the rate was 24.2.

But the report shows, once again, that maternal mortality does not impact every community equally. Black women are about 2.5 times more likely to die from pregnancy and childbirth than white women. Both Black and Hispanic women saw a sharp increase in pregnancy-related mortality between 2019 and 2020 — for Hispanic women the rate increased nearly 9 points to 22.2, and for Black women more than 11 points to 39. But white women actually saw an improvement, with the mortality rate dropping nearly 3 points to 16.1.

In 80% of these cases, the committee determined there was at least some chance of saving the patient’s life – a decline from 90% from the previous report. A quarter of women died due to infections, the most common cause of death, followed by cardiovascular conditions, obstetric hemorrhage, embolisms and mental health conditions.

MC Poll Has Allred By 1 Point Over Cruz In Texas

The chart above reflects the results of the Morning Consult Poll -- done between September 9th and 18th of 2,716 likely voters in Texas, with a 2 point margin of error. 

This is a respected poll. It shows that the Senate race in Texas is a lot closer than most of the pundits thought. It's basically a dead heat, and it's going to boil down to which side gets their voters out.

I think it probably still slightly favors Cruz, but if some Republicans think they have the race in the bag because Texas is a red state, and they stay home, Allred (and maybe even Harris) could win.

How can this be in red state Texas? For one thing, Cruz is not well liked by Texans. He has a less than 50% favorable rating. He also suffers because of his stand on abortion. And he has voted twice against a bill to assure access to IVF procedures.

Cruz also voted against a border bill that would have significantly reduced undocumented immigration - just so Trump could keep it as a campaign issue. 

Allred voted for the border bill, voted for the bill to assure access to IVF, and supports reproductive freedom for women (which is popular even in Texas).

Democrats Are Growing Closer In Texas

 

The charts above are from the Texas Public Opinion Research Poll -- done between August 24th and 29th of 800 registered voters in Texas, with a 3.5 point margin of error.

The Senate Race In Texas Is Closer Than Expected

 From The Hill:

“Anybody that says, ‘It just doesn’t happen in Texas’ — it doesn’t happen until it does,” pollster Brett Loyd said of the possibility Allred scores an upset in the Senate race.

The contest between Cruz and Allred, whose entry last year shifted Cook Political Report’s rating of the Senate seat from “solid” Republican to “likely” Republican, is one of a small handful that have emerged as unexpectedly competitive in the high-stakes fight for the Senate this fall. 

Cruz fended off a strong Democratic challenge six years ago, when O’Rourke came within 3 percentage points of flipping the seat. O’Rourke’s bid benefited from the broader “blue wave” in the midterm election that year, and some in the state are skeptical that Allred can snag the energy he needs to finish the job this cycle. In 2022, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) defeated O’Rourke’s bid for the governor’s mansion by double digits.

But several recent polls show Cruz struggling to cross the 50-percent mark, making the Texas Senate race a potential bright spot for Democrats as they battle to hold their slim majority in the upper chamber.

“If you’re Ted Cruz or a Ted Cruz fan, if in the closing months of an election, you’re not at 50 percent and you’re not closing that margin up towards 50 percent, that’s going to be problematic,” Loyd said.

The Margin Between Trump And Harris Has Shrunk In Texas

The chart reflects the results of the University of Texas / YouGov Poll -- done between August 23rd and 31st of 1,200 registered voters in Texas, and has a margin of error of 2.83 points. 

The chart reflects the results of the Emerson College Poll - done between September 3rd and 5th of 845 likely Texas voters, and has a margin of error of 3.3 points.

Note To Allred: Don't Neglect To Campaign In The Red Areas

The Harris/Walz campaign is doing something I like a lot. They are taking their campaign to the red areas of Georgia - and they plan to do the same thing in other states. That's smart. Even if they can't win those red areas, they can reduce Trump's margin in them (and that might allow them to win statewide).

I think Democrat Colin Allred should do the same thing in his race for the Senate in Texas.

Texas' largest 15 counties contain about 65% of the total votes in the state. And if the election was only in those 15 counties, Democrats would do very well. But Texas has 239 other counties, and most of them are bright red. While they only have about 35% of the vote, they normally give Republican a 30% to 40% vote margin. That huge margin gives the GOP the votes they need to overcome any deficit they might have in the large cities in the state - and it allows them to keep control of the state.

These red areas are mostly rural and they don't get a lot of visits (or attention) from politicians. Many just regard them as hopelessly owned by the Republican Party.

That's a mistake. There are a significant number of Democrats and Independents in those rural counties. While the Democrats can be counted on, the Independents should not be ignored. They could be courted to vote blue, but they need to be asked to do so - in person, not just in a TV ad. They need to be shown they are not discounted or forgotten. Right now, many of them stay home on Election Day because they don't believe anyone cares about them. That doesn't have to be!

Now you may be thinking that even if a Democrat campaigns in these areas they will still lose there. That may well be true. But a Democrat like Allred doesn't have to win in these areas. He just needs to cut into the GOP margin there - lowering it from 30% to 40% to about 15% to 20%. That might well be enough to stop the GOP from overcoming the Democratic advantage in urban areas - and give the Democrats a statewide win.

As someone who lived in a rural red county for many years, I believe the Democrats could help themselves there. But it can only be done by going there and asking for their votes. 

Raising the Democratic margin in blue areas must be combined with reducing the Republican majority in red areas if Democrats are to win a statewide race in Texas.

The Texas Race For The Senate Has Drawn Much Closer

The chart above reflects the results of the University of Houston Hobby School Texas Trends Survey -- done between August 5th and 16th of 1,365 likely Texas voters, with a 2.65 point margin of error.

Note that Allred trails Cruz by only 2.1 points. That's within the poll's margin of error!

Allred Is Within 3 Points Of Cruz In New Texas Poll

The chart above is from the Texas Southern University Texas Trends Survey -- done between June 20th and July 1st of a sample of 1,484 likely Texas voters, with a 2.3 point margin of error.