The Polls Were NOT Wrong This Time

In recent presidential elections, the polls have been vilified - many of them justifiably. And some are even blaming the polls again this time - saying they were wrong. But they weren't. This time they were right!

This was a very close election in the popular vote. As of the latest count, Trump had 50.4% and Harris had 47.9%. That's about a 2.5 point gap. And that's exactly what the polls were telling us - that it would be very close.

While many polls had Harris with a slight lead, it was always within the poll's admitted margin of error - which means either of the candidates could have a small lead. That's how it turned out - a victory within the margin of error.

Polling is not an exact science. At best, they just give us an educated guess (within a small error) of what the public's thinking at a particular time. They told us this would be a close election and either candidate could win by a small margin. That is what happened, especially in the critical swing states.

Some look to the electoral college margin (312 to 226), and say it wasn't a close election. But polling can't predict what the electoral college will turn out to be - only what the popular vote might be.

For the most part, I think the polls did a credible job this time.

YouGov's Post Election Poll

 

The charts above are from the Economist / YouGov Poll -- done on November 6th and 7th of a nationwide sample of 1,590 registered voters, and has a 3 point margin of error.

This Is What Went Wrong In The Election (SATIRE)

When something terrible happens, a person can either laugh or cry before starting the long battle to correct it. Alexandra Petri (The Washington Post) gives us the chance to laugh, because laughter is necessary and therapeutic even in the darkest of times. She writes:

Like lots of people on the internet right now, I am certain that the thing that went wrong in the 2024 Harris campaign is the very thing that I have been going on about for years, but unlike everyone else on the internet, I am right. I know what went wrong. Okay, I will tell you: not enough texts and emails from the candidate.

Every time I got one of those on my phone or in my inbox, I felt fired up. And I’m sure that’s how everyone else receiving them also felt. So why were we only receiving (and this is a rough estimate; I think I am lowballing it) 346 of them per hour? That wasn’t enough. We needed more.

Do not say to me: “Your assumptions are wrong. Obviously, we tried the strategy of sending more texts than any human being could possibly want to receive from a candidate in the course of a lifetime, and that strategy failed.”

False.

It has not yet been tried. We received only a countably infinite number of texts. We should have received an UNCOUNTABLY infinite number of texts. What were they even doing at headquarters?

How could this campaign have hoped to win the election unless every second anyone in America was looking at a phone, that phone was dinging with news that the candidate’s college roommate’s parrot was worried that not enough money had been poured into the campaign yet? If your phone is not wrung out and shuddering from the effort of fielding all the texts, running through its battery power, begging some unknown force to make it stop, then you weren’t getting fired up enough!

Emails from the candidate. Emails from the candidate’s running mate. Emails from the candidate’s spouse. Emails from Barack Obama. Where were emails from people with even more tangential relationships to the candidate? Their neighbors? Their dog walkers? People who had once visited an Airbnb right after they’d visited it and felt that it had been left in excellent condition? People who sat behind them at a screening of “Top Gun: Maverick” and thought that their verbal responses were appropriate? If we had had my way, everyone in the country would have been required not only to receive these texts but also to send them.

Also the subject lines of the emails weren’t dire enough.

What evidence do I have that my strategy would have worked?

Well, it seems to me (without much evidence; I did Google it, but that just meant that an insufficiently intelligent AI sent me a few sponsored results that were not entirely germane) that fewer people complained this year than complained in previous election cycles about the sheer volume of unrequested campaign emails and texts. This, to me, is an important signal.

Such a conspicuous lack of complaint, if it happened at all, which I am choosing to believe that it did, was not because we are just used to the world being marginally worse now and have stopped complaining as we stroll uneasily through 80-degree temperatures in November, tip at all transactions and accept that we are all 40 percent microplastics. No, it was because we liked it. The number of texts and emails was finally approaching the number of emails and text messages that it is ideal to receive from your candidate of choice. There is no ceiling. That is what I have always been saying! If we had just gotten a few more, we could have clinched this thing.

I know that some people are saying, “Your prescription is the opposite of what is true. You are just bringing a bad set of assumptions to a situation where there is no evidence that your suggested course would have made things any better!” To them I say: No! Try it! Only one way to find out, and that’s to try it! More texts! More emails! Midterms are right around the corner! We’d better start right now!

Kamala Harris And Democrats Are Not To Blame For The Trump Victory

Like many millions of other Americans, I was shocked at Trump's victory in the recent election.

The voters knew that Trump was an inveterate liar, and voted for him anyway.

The voters knew Trump was a convicted criminal, and voted for him anyway.

The voters knew Trump had numerous criminal trials pending, and voted for him anyway.

The voters knew Trump was a racist, and voted for him anyway.

The voters knew Trump was a sex abuser, and voted for him anyway.

The voters knew Trump opposed reproductive freedom, and voted for him anyway.

The voters knew Trump played fast and loose with critical intelligence (including stealing and hiding top secret documents), and voted for him anyway.

Why did this happen? How could it have happened?

Some are trying to blame Kamala Harris. They say she was a bad candidate. Bullshit! The Democratic base loved her. She trashed Trump in their only debate. And she was a tireless campaigner who gave great campaign speeches.

Some are trying to blame President Biden - saying if he had dropped out earlier and allowed Democrats to have a competitive primary things would have been different. Nonsense! 

And some are trying to blame the Democratic Party. They say the party is broken and has abandoned workers. That's also ridiculous!

The party raised over a billion dollars from small donors, and had a massive get out the vote effort. And it has been true to workers. It is the Republicans who have blocked all efforts to help workers.

The reason Trump won can be summed up in one sentence. A majority of voters didn't want to vote for a woman (misogyny) who was Black and Asian (racism). 

I wish it wasn't true, but most voters were racists, misogynists, or both. That's a sad fact in a country that claims to believe in equality and opportunity for all. 

Presidential Voting In Texas

 

The election left no doubt that Texas, despite Democratic hopes, is still a bright red state. Donald Trump carried the state over Kamala Harris by a whopping 14 point margin. While I wish the outcome had been different, I can accept those results. Voters have the right to vote as they want.

But I am very disappointed in another statistics. Out of 18,623,931 registered voters in the state, only 59% bothered to cast a vote. About 41% of Texas voters couldn't be bothered to take a little time to vote!

Texas has always been a low voter turnout state. But that's no excuse. That 41% of non-voters should be ashamed of themselves!

The Winners And Losers Of The 2024 Election

 

My list of the winners and losers of this election:

WINNERS

Donald Trump - He not only gets to be president again, but can use the office to kill the criminal charges filed against him, and can use the office to make himself much richer (thanks to the immunity granted him by the Supreme Court).

MAGA Republicans - With Trump in the White House and control over Congress, they can pursue their horrid agenda unhindered.

Vladimir Putin - With his favorite fanboy back in office, Putin will have a much easier time conducting war against Ukraine, and might even see the sanctions against his country lifted.

The Super-Rich - They will now get more massive tax breaks.

Evangelicals - With their control over Trump and the MAGA-controlled Congress, they will find it much easier to impose their brand of religion on the rest of the country.

Wall Street / Financial institutions - They will not only get tax breaks, but will be able to get financial regulations lifted.

LOSERS

Democrats / Other Trump opponents - Trump has threatened to use the Justice Department to punish them. He tired to do that in his last administration, but was stopped by rational Republicans. There will be no rational Republicans in his new administration.

Mainstream Media - Trump hates media criticism, and will use his power to silence them. This is another group he is likely to use the Justice Department against.

Ukraine - With Trump on Russia's side, Ukraine will find it much harder to defend their democracy. Trump may even cut off military and financial aid to them.

Western Allies (NATO) - Trump wanted to withdraw from NATO in his first term and his sycophants may let him do it this time. Trump has also threatened to impose tariffs on these trading partners.

Constitution / Rule of Law - Trump, thanks to the Supreme Court immunity ruling, can do anything he wants, even things that are illegal or unconstitutional.

Individual rights - Voting rights are sure to be restricted even more as the Republicans design rules that will help them retain power in the future. Reproductive rights will not improve in the next few years, and a nationwide abortion ban could be imposed. Women will continue to die. There is also likely to be a roll back of LGBTQ rights.

Low-wage workers - There will be no raise of the minimum wage, and the power to unionize will be curtailed.

Consumers - There will be fewer regulations to protect consumers from price-gouging, and the Consumer Protection Bureau is likely to be voted out of existence by the Republicans.

Democracy - Trump wants to establish an authoritarian presidency. The current Supreme Court and incoming MAGA Congress will allow him to do it.

How Is This Election Even Close?

 The following is a small part of a post by Robert Reich:

These are the most stressful and nerve-wracking days I can recall. I vacillate between optimism and fear, hope and dread. 

 

I don’t recall an election in which the two candidates represent such opposite poles of the American character. 

Harris is the rule of law; Trump, lawlessness. Harris, inclusion; Trump, exclusion. Harris, decency; Trump, loathsomeness. Harris, the American Dream; Trump, the American nightmare.

 

Harris wants the best for the country; Trump wants the best only for himself. 

I don’t need to go on. You know all this. The question is why doesn’t everyone else? That almost half of America appears willing to vote for Trump is itself shocking.

Most Say Harris Will Benefit Working/Middle Classes - Trump Only The Rich

The chart above is from the YouGov Poll -- done between October 10th and 14th of a nationwide sample of 1,126 adults, with a 4 point margin of error.
 

YouGov's Final Election Poll In All 50 States

 

From the YouGov Poll.

Respected Poll Has Harris With A Lead In Red State Iowa!

The chart above is from the Des Moines Register / Mediacom / Selzer & Co Poll -- done between October 28th and 31st of a sample of 808 likely Iowa voters, with a 3.4 point margin of error.
 

New Poll Has Harris With A 3-Point Lead Over Trump

The chart above reflects the results of the Morning Consult Poll -- done between October 25th and 27th of a nationwide sample of 8,807 likely voters, with a 1 point margin of error. 

Texas Early Voting

Early voting in Texas goes through November 1st.
 

ABC Poll Has Harris With A 4-Point Lead Among Likely Voters

 

The charts above are from the ABC News / Ipsos Poll -- done between October 18th and 22nd of a nationwide sample of 1,913 likely voters, with a 2.5 point margin of error.

It's OK To Be Anxious - But VOTE!

The following is by Jen Psaki:

Right now, whether in the train station or on a text chain, the election anxiety is palpable. And it's understandable. This race is incredibly close. The latest New York Times/Sienna poll shows a dead heat, and more importantly, seven key swing states all show Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump polling within the margin of error. 

This election comes just eight years after a man who made misogynyand racism a key part of his campaign defeated our first truly viable female nominee, and just four years after Trump helped incite an insurrection on the steps of our Capitol. 

But I’m not freaking out (yet). And here’s why.

First of all, I think late deciders are breaking for Harris. According to that same New York Times/Sienna poll, “15 percent of voters described themselves as not fully decided, and Ms. Harris is leading with that group, 42 percent to 32 percent. Two weeks ago, Mr. Trump had a minute edge with undecided or persuadable voters, 36 percent to 35 percent.” This is consistent with a recent Emerson College poll that showed Harris leading this group by double digits.

Second, people are already voting, and while GOP turnout is up in some states like Nevada, Democratic voters, especially women, are reportedly casting ballots at higher rates. This is always a good sign, given Harris’s gender gap advantage with women. Even among young men — a group that Trump has spent a great deal of money and effort courting — Harris has a lead in at least one poll among likely young male voters.

Finally, Harris has a far better ground operation for the final push, impacting both enthusiasm and turnout. Does that mean she will win the election? I don’t know yet. No one does. It ultimately depends on who turns out more of their supporters in the final days. 

So, yes it’s OK to be anxious. But as someone who’s been through many stressful elections, rather than simply watching the polls shift, the only tried-and-true way to channel that energy is to do something to benefit the democratic process. Go knock on doors in Pennsylvania, or volunteer in a nearby swing state. And of course, vote.

Polls Are Still Showing Harris With A Slim Lead Over Trump

The chart above reflects the results of the University of Massachusetts Poll -- done between October 11th and 16th of a nationwide sample of 1,500 adults, with a 3.1 point margin of error.

The chart above is from the TIPP Poll -- done between October 21st and 23rd of a nationwide sample of likely voters, with a 2.8 point margin of errors.

New Polls Show Harris Maintaining Her Slim Lead

The chart above is from the Monmouth University Poll -- done between October 17th and 21st of a nationwide sample of 802 registered voters, with a 4.1 point margin of error. 

The chart above is from the Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between October 19th and 22nd of a nationwide sample of 1,420 registered voters, with a 3.2 point margin of error.

New Poll Has Harris With A 20-Point Lead Over Trump Among Young Voters

The chart above reflects the results of the CNBC / Generation Lab / Youth and Money Poll -- released on October 22nd of a nationwide sample of 1,021 respondents (age 18 to 34), with a 3.1 point margin of error.

After Two Days Of Early Voting In Texas The Turnout Is Huge!

If Democrats are to have a chance in Texas, there must be a huge turnout of voters. It looks like that might be happening. Early voting in the first two days of the 12 day early voting period has seen 1,615,885 people voting early, and another 173,451 mail-in ballots received. That's 9.61% of the state's registered voters in only two days (according to the office of the Texas Secretary of State).

How Can So Many Be Blind To Trump's Massive Faults?

The following is just part of an excellent post by former Labor Secretary Robert Reich: 

I have never come across a bully more squalid than Donald Trump. He is the bully of all bullies.

 

He emits dangerous lies like most people breathe. 

He has demeaned and degraded our system of self-government, attempted a coup against the United States, divided Americans with venomous bigotry, and rewarded his rich backers with tax cuts and regulatory rollbacks.

Trump created a Supreme Court that took away women’s rights over their own bodies and immunized presidents from criminal liability.

 

In recent weeks, he has become even more untethered from reality, more unhinged, even less coherent. 

He says that if he gets back in power he will wreak vengeance on his political opponents — including many loyal Americans who have stood up to him — calling them the “enemy within” and openly threatening to use the U.S. military against them. 

He says he wants to cleanse America of “scum” and “vermin,” including immigrants, refugees, and Democrats like Adam Schiff and Nancy Pelosi. 

He is threatening to strip television networks of their ability to broadcast news because of coverage he doesn’t like. 

On Sunday, he said he’d subpoena the records of CBS, claiming that the network’s edit of Harris’s recent appearance on “60 Minutes” was misleading.

He refuses to be bound by the results of the upcoming election. This means that America will likely suffer weeks or months of litigation following Election Day, perhaps even accompanied by violence. 

I felt hopeful in late July, when Joe Biden selflessly bowed out of the election and passed the baton to his vice president, Kamala Harris. 

I’ve felt even more hopeful as Harris has proven herself a tough, exuberant, powerful campaigner and force for positive change. Her debate performance against Trump was the best I’ve ever seen. 

But at this moment, I’m frankly worried.

 

How can so many Americans be blind to who Trump is and what he intends to do?

Will Texas Voters Kick Ted Cruz Out Of The Senate?

Texas is a red state, but Republican Ted Cruz is very unpopular - and this year he's in the closest race of his life. He could actually lose! Here's how Olivia Messer and Billy Begala at MSNBC see the Texas Senate race:

There’s a reason no Democrat has accomplished a statewide victory in Texas since 1994.

Pulling off such an upset would require a uniquely talented politician running an almost perfect campaign. That candidate would need to display discipline, calm and poise. Be telegenic and quick on the feet. The candidate would need to be thoroughly Texan and have an identity infused with elements of the state’s cultural zeitgeist. The person would need to run in a halfway decent national political environment. And even with all of those boxes checked, that rare Democrat would still need to square off against an extraordinarily disliked Republican running a lackluster campaign without much support from the person's own colleagues.

Enter: Rep. Colin Allred.

Allred’s remarkable debate performance Tuesday spawned a flurry of Instagram slides, TikTok videos and X posts. Both in Texas and nationwide, news feeds have been flush this week with clips of the former professional football player rebuking Sen. Ted Cruz for hiding in a “supply closet” during the attempted insurrection at the U.S. Capitol — a riot by a mob that Cruz himself helped whip up. Others showed him repeatedly referencing the time Cruz flew to Cancun, Mexico, as hundreds of Texans died during the middle of a winter freeze, or hammering him on his abortion stance — an issue critical to white female voters who have been abandoning the GOP in droves. 

But an impressive debate performance alone is not enough for a Democrat to win a state like Texas. However, polls, fundraising and a changing political climate have all looked promising for Allred. Today, Texas Democrats are in an extraordinary situation, one that has proved elusive over the past three decades: They have an actual chance of winning a statewide race.

As of Thursday, FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls had Cruz stuck at 48.4%. A Morning Consult survey released Thursday showed Allred down by just 1 point. An internal memo from the Senate Leadership Fund — the Mitch McConnell-aligned super PAC focused on electing Republicans to the Senate — had Cruz up by only 1 point. A different polling memo released by the National Republican Senatorial Committee omitted any information on the race. If the numbers were too bad to share, that’s certainly a worrying sign for Cruz. . . .

The last time Texans had a race this close, this late in the election, was Cruz’s re-election bid in 2018, in which he narrowly beat O’Rourke by less than 3 points. But that year, the senator’s polling looked rosier then than it does today. In the world of campaign politics, any incumbent stuck under 50% in the polls when votes are days away is leaving the door open to a loss. . . .

To get to 50% + 1, Allred will need to run up the score in urban centers, especially among voters of color. He’ll also need to persuade swing-y South Texas Hispanic voters and he’ll need to do that while maintaining the favor of white, college-educated suburban voters.

It’s a huge mountain to climb — and one that hasn’t been summited in 30 years. But if Allred doesn’t emerge victorious, he’s still carried Democrats further than any other candidate in recent memory.