Another Very Early Party Presidential Poll

Another presidential preference poll has been done. This one is the CNN/Opinion Research Poll. It was taken between September 6th and 8th of 452 Republicans and 448 Democrats (with a 4.5 point margin of error for both parties).

As you can see from the chart above, there is still no real favorite in the Republican race. Chris Christie has a tiny lead, but both Paul Ryan and Rand Paul are within the margin of error -- with Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio not far behind. Since polls this early usually rest on name recognition, the two candidates that should worry are Rick Perry and Rick Santorum. Both of them should be familiar with almost all Republican voters, but they still trail badly.

It's a different story among Democrats, where Hillary Clinton remains the prohibitive favorite (with more support than everyone else put together). With Clinton being such a shoo-in for the nomination (if she decides she wants it), it speaks well of Biden, Warren, and Cuomo that they have any support at all -- and just shows how much respect they each have among Democrats in general.

In a magazine interview last Sunday, Clinton was asked whether she wrestles with whether to run for the presidency or not. She replied:

"I do, but I'm both pragmatic and realistic. I think I have a pretty good idea of the political and governmental challenges that are facing our leaders, and I'll do whatever I can from whatever position I find myself in to advocate for the values and the policies I think are right for the country. I will just continue to weigh what the factors are that would influence me making a decision one way or the other. I'm not in any hurry. I think it's a serious decision, not to be made lightly but it's also not one that has to be made soon."

And when Bill Clinton was asked Fareed Zakaria of CNN about whether Hillary would run, he said:

"I think she would be the first to tell you that there is no such thing as a done deal, ever, by anybody. But I don't know what she's going to do."

Personally, I would be shocked if she didn't run -- and even more shocked if she didn't win (both the nomination and the general election).

Opposite Ends Of The GOP Spectrum

Two Republican politicians were in the news this week -- and both of them have been mentioned many times as possible  candidates for the party's nomination as president in the future. They are ex-Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum and New Jersey governor Chris Christie.

Santorum got his name back in the news by testifying at a Senate hearing about whether the Senate should approve the U.N. Convention on the Rights of Persons With Disabilities. Santorum is opposed to the Senate ratifying the treaty. He thinks it is some kind of conspiracy by the United Nations to either abuse disabled people in the United States or deny their parents the right to protect them. It is just the kind of stance that would appeal to the teabaggers in the Republican Party's base -- the kind of people that think the president wasn't born in the U.S., that the U.N. is trying to abolish golf courses in the United States, and that global warming is a scientific hoax.

Of course it's nonsense. The treaty was negotiated during the administration of George W. Bush, and approved by Bush. It also has the approval of such conservative senators as John McCain (R-Arizona) and John Barrasso (R-Wyoming). While I have very little respect for those three men, I don't think they would lend their support for anything that would hurt disabled Americans or violate U.S. law.

The truth is that the treaty would have absolutely no effect in the United States at all. What it does is ask all countries to take steps to help their disabled citizens -- steps the United States has already taken by passing the Americans with Disabilities Act. Senate ratification of the U.N. treaty would just encourage other nations to do what this country has already done, and that's a good thing. It would recognize the U.S. leadership in the rights of the disabled.

But Santorum doesn't deal in reality. His concern is his own mean-spirited teabagger ideology, and how he can use that to further his own political ambitions. He even brought his own disabled daughter to the senate hearing to use as a prop. But his action will probably resonate well with his base voters.

The other Republican, Chris Christie, made the news because he has announced his intention to run for a second term as governor of New Jersey. And even though New Jersey is a blue state, I'd hate to be the Democrat that runs against him. He has an excellent chance of being re-elected. A Quinnipiac Poll gives him a 72% favorable rating currently, and a Rutgers/Eagleton Poll shows he has the support of 59% of the voters in his re-election effort. The reason for his support is that 95% of the people of New Jersey think he did a very good job of responding to the Hurrican Sandy disaster that hit the state.

These two men are on opposite ends of the Republican spectrum, although both are conservatives. Christie is popular with the general public, while Santorum is popular with the Republican base. Many Republicans are mad at Christie because he reached across the political aisle and worked with President Obama to help the victims of Hurricane Sandy in his state. He put aside party differences and electoral concerns and did what was best for the people he was elected to serve. And that's just why the teabaggers in the GOP are mad at him. They want someone who puts party ideology above all other concerns, even the good of the people.

Things might change in the next three years, but if the Republicans nominated another presidential candidate right now, Santorum would easily defeat Christie (because the teabaggers love Santorum and are mad at Christie). And Santorum would lose even worse than Romney did, because the American people are tired of politicians putting their ideology above the needs of the people. Christie on the other hand, would make a formidible general election candidate. People want the parties to compromise and come up with solutions to the nation's problems, and Christie has shown that he can do that.

It is to the Democrats' advantage that the teabaggers in the Republican base can't see past their ideology. They would pass up a good candidate for a nut-job. The Republican leadership has three years to correct that kind of thinking, but I don't think they can. They invited the teabaggers, racists, and fundamentalists into the party, and now they are unable to control them.

P.S. -- Santorum has said recently that he might like to run for president again in 2016. I hope he does. I would much rather the appointed Democrat (Hillary?) run against him than against Christie.

Press To Be Barred From Santorum Speech

(Cartoon above is by Bill Schorr at caglecartoons.com.)

Rick Santorum is very popular among Texas Republicans (who are as right-wing as it gets). In fact, Santorum was easily leading Willard Mitt Romney (aka Wall Street Willie) in all Texas polls before he suspended his presidential campaign -- and will probably still get a significant portion of the vote when Texas Republicans hold their primary on May 29th (even though Romney is assured of being the nominee).

But the state Republican Party knows which side of their bread the butter is on. While Romney will not be making an appearance at the state convention, Rick Santorum will be. In fact, he is the featured speaker at the convention's Friday night banquet. Naturally, the press (especially the Texas press) wanted to cover Santorum's speech. Unfortunately, that's not going to happen.

The state party has decreed that the press will not be allowed to cover the banquet speech. Party leaders said the banquet is a "private" fundraiser. Party communications director Chris Elam went further and said, "There has never been media availability at the state party's premiere banquet." But Elam is lying. Mitt Romney was the featured speaker in 2008, speaking on behalf of John McCain, and the press was allowed to cover that speech.

The truth is that while party leaders in Texas are ultra-right-wingers, they are not complete idiots. They know that Santorum will tell the party faithful what they want to hear and raise a lot of money, but they also know he is likely to say one or more things that will not sound good to the general public and could easily hurt them in the coming general election with Independents.

State Republican Party leaders want to have their cake and eat it too. They want Santorum to fire up the conventioneers (who are mainly teabaggers and fundamentalists) with his nuttiness, but they don't want the general public to hear any of the speech (because Santorum only appeals to right-wing religious extremists).

This is the time of an election year when the Republicans start trying to hide their extremism and pose as a more moderate party. I don't think they realize yet that in this internet age, that's no longer possible. The extremism exposed in their primary will be replayed many times before election day. They're stuck with it.

Wall Street Willie To Skip Texas Convention

Rick Santorum may not be a presidential candidate anymore, but he will be coming down here to Texas to attend the state Republican convention. It fact, he will be one of the featured speakers at the convention. But there will be one big-name no-show at that convention -- Willard Mitt Romney (aka Wall Street Willie), who is now pretty much assured of winning the Republican presidential nomination.

Now you may think it's odd that Wall Street Willie would skip this convention. After all, Texas is a Republican state and has a ton of electoral votes. But it doesn't surprise me at all. Romney knows that Texas is not really a Romney-loving state, although a majority of Texans will likely vote for him grudgingly next November. I think he's afraid he'll come off looking bad if the convention-goers give Santorum a much better reception than they give him -- and that would very likely happen if he showed up.

Romney's trying to make his candidacy look like he is formidable competition for President Obama, and getting embarrassed at the Texas convention by Santorum is not going to help with that at all. The Texas Republicans did invite Wall Street Willie, but his campaign didn't even bother to answer the invitation. They just ignored it.

The primary will be held on May 29th, and now that he's the only candidate still in the race (Paul has no chance in his home state, being too crazy even for Texas teabaggers), Romney will probably win the majority of the state's delegates (which are designated proportionally according to the primary vote). But don't be surprised if there is still a strong anti-Romney vote in the primary. A lot of Texas Republicans will have a problem supporting the "Yankee flip-flopper" (as he is viewed down here).

Buying The Nomination

We have known for a while now that a candidate can't run for president in this country unless they are rich or have lots of rich friends willing to spend freely for them. That has never been more apparent than in the current race for the Republican presidential nomination. Willard Mitt Romney (aka Wall Street Willie) has virtually assured himself of the nomination (although it will still take a few more weeks to amass the required number of delegates), but it has taken a ton of money for him to do so.

And an argument can be made that he bought the nomination, because he had at his disposal a lot more money than was available to any of his opponents. When his campaign started to slow (as it often did), he had millions more that he could spend on campaign advertising than the other candidates did, and he was not shy about spending it to swing the election back his way.

CNN did a survey of campaign spending by the end of March, and it's pretty revealing. At that time, Romney had gotten 4.1 million votes and amassed 607 delegates. To get those votes and delegates, the Romney campaign had spent about $76.6 million -- and that doesn't count what the super-PACs spent on his behalf (adding super-PAC spending pushes the total up to about $122 million). Here is what each vote and delegate cost him:

Each vote cost him about $18.68.
Each delegate cost him about $126,194.

But that's only considering the campaign spending. When the super-PAC money is figured in, the totals go up to:

Each vote cost him $29.76.
Each delegate cost him $200,988.

Those are some pretty expensive votes and delegates. But Romney wasn't the only person to pay a lot for the votes and delegates they got. While the other candidates didn't have near as much money or spend near as much, they got less votes and delegates -- meaning that their cost per vote and delegate was also very high. Here are the totals for other candidates (with super-PAC spending included in the figures in parentheses):

RICK SANTORUM
Total spending $18.7 million ($26.7 million)
Each vote cost $6.45 ($9.21)
Each delegate cost $70,833 ($101,136)

NEWT GINGRICH
Total spending $21 million ($39 million)
Each vote cost $9.55 ($17.73)
Each delegate cost $148,936 ($276,595)

Super-PAC spending was insignificant for Ron Paul, but his campaign was the least cost-effective in buying votes and delegates.

RON PAUL
Total spending $35 million
Each vote cost $31.82
Each delegate cost $486,111

Santorum Is Out & The Race Continues

(The above caricature is by the inimitable DonkeyHotey.)

Rick Santorum (aka Mr. Frothy) has surprised nearly everyone. He suspended his campaign before his own home state votes on April 24th. Was he afraid he might lose in his home state (Pennsylvania)? Or did he just finally read the writing on the wall, and realize that there was no way for him to win a majority of the delegates and become the nominee? Or did he finally give in to pressure from party officials (who are looking for a way to end this embarrassing debacle).

We'll probably never know what the reason was, but Santorum has now joined the ranks of the other wannabes who've dropped out (like Perry, Cain, Bachmann, Huntsman, Pawlenty, Johnson, and even Trump). Yesterday, Santorum told reporters:

"We made a decision over the weekend that while this presidential race for us is over for me and we will suspend our campaign effective today. We are not done fighting."

Santorum said he had called Romney earlier in the day and informed him of the decision. At this point, it should be noted that there were two things Santorum didn't do. He didn't throw his support behind any other candidate. And he didn't release the delegates he has won so they could support another candidate. All he did was stop campaigning.

Does this move by Santorum officially end the nomination race? Well, no. Willard Mitt Romney (aka Wall Street Willie) still does not have the required number of delegates to give him the nomination. And even if he wins every delegate from the five states voting on April 24th, he will still not have enough delegates. Romney now has to be the odds-on favorite to grab the nomination, but this race is going to continue for a while.

The real question is what are the teabaggers and evangelicals going to do now? Are they going to finally give up and throw their support to Romney (something they've refused to do for months now)? Or are they just going to slide over to another "anti-Romney" candidate (like they have done time after time)? After all, Gingrich is still in the race, and Paul (although he's proven to be too crazy for even the teabaggers and evangelicals). It will be interesting to see what these two groups do now.

For his part, Gingrich was quick to try and grab the Santorum supporters, saying:

"I am committed to staying in this race all the way to Tampa so that the conservative movement has a real choice.  I humbly ask Senator Santorum’s supporters to visit Newt.org to review my conservative record and join us as we bring these values to Tampa."

Santorum Clutches At Straws -- Wants To Change Texas' Delegate Selection Process

Things are looking pretty grim for Rick Santorum (aka Mr. Frothy) these days. Willard Mitt Romney (aka Wall Street Willie) won three more states last Tuesday, and it looks like he will take four or five of the states that vote on April 24th (with the possible exception being Santorum's home state of Pennsylvania). That wouldn't give Romney enough delegates to clinch the nomination, but it would give him a huge lead and fix it so that none of his opponents could get enough delegates to win.

That has Santorum clutching at straws, and trying to come up with some kind of game-changing move that could at least force a brokered convention (which is starting to look like his only chance to win the nomination). Rumor has it that he and Gingrich have had several conversations lately -- probably to try and come up with some kind of co-ordinated strategy to stop Romney. I doubt that will happen though, since Gingrich's ego is far too big (and that strategy would help Santorum far more than Gingrich).

Here in Texas, where Santorum is currently leading, he is trying a different tack. Santorum is encouraging his followers to change the delegate selection process. Currently Texas apportions its delegates according to the percentages each candidate wins in the state primary. That means that even if he loses the primary, Romney could still grab a healthy portion of the 152 delegates at stake. But Santorum and his supporters want to change the rules to make Texas a "winner take all" state. That would most likely mean Santorum would get all 152 delegates.

On a Pennsylvania radio show last Wednesday Santorum said of the proposed change in Texas, "Now that is a game-changer for us. . .all of a sudden this race doesn't become as long a shot as the media would tend to dictate." But as much as Santorum would like for this to happen, it is very unlikely to happen.

It takes 15 members of the party's State Executive Committee to ask for an emergency meeting. There are enough Santorum supporters on the committee to accomplish that, but at that meeting it would take a two-thirds vote to change the rule. That would be hard to achieve, since the Romney members would oppose it (and I really can't see Paul and Gingrich willingly giving up their delegates for Santorum). Even if Santorum were somehow to pull that off, there would still be a big obstacle.

The change would then have to be approved by the Republican National Committee. And that isn't going to happen. The party leaders are already embarrassed over this campaign and how its helping to destroy the party brand. They want it to end, and letting Texas change the rules at this late date would just drag things out further. Party leaders also view Romney as the stronger candidate.

I don't expect Santorum (or Gingrich or Paul) to quit right now, but it is time for them to face reality. The race may not be officially over yet, but trying to do something as sneaky as trying to change the rules in the middle of the game is not going to help. This just makes Santorum look desparate (and more than a little unethical).

Three New Polls For The Next Primaries

It's nearly three weeks until the next set of primaries will be held in the GOP's presidential nomination race. On April 24th, five states will be voting (Connecticut, New York, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and Rhode Island). The two most delegate-rich states are Pennsylvania with 72 delegates and New York with 95 delegates. Connecticut has 28 delegates, Rhode Island has 19, and Delaware has 17.

Even if Willard Mitt Romney (aka Wall Street Willie) were to take all of the delegates from all five states, he still would not have enough delegates to assure him the nomination (and it is very unlikely he can win them all). It looks like his biggest hurdle will be to win in Pennsylvania (Santorum's home state). Two new polls are out and they don't agree about who is leading in Pennsylvania. One has Santorum in the lead, and the other says Romney is leading.

There is also a poll out now regarding New York, and it looks like Romney will win big there. Here are the three new polls:

PUBLIC POLICY POLLING (Pennsylvania)
Mitt Romney...............42%
Rick Santorum...............37%
Ron Paul...............9%
Newt Gingrich...............6%

RASMUSSEN POLL (Pennsylvania)
Rick Santorum...............42%
Mitt Romney...............38%
Ron Paul...............7%
Newt Gingrich...............6%
Other/Undecided...............7%

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL (New York)
Mitt Romney...............54%
Rick Santorum...............21%
Newt Gingrich...............9%
Ron Paul...............8%
Undecided...............8%

Wall Street Willie Leads In Next 2 States

It's just three more days until more entities get to choose who they want to represent the Republican Party in November against the president. Those are the states of Wisconsin and Maryland, and the District of Columbia -- who will all vote on Tuesday, April 3rd. By the end of that night, about three-fifths of the states will have voted.

I haven't seen anything on the District of Columbia, but I figure Wall Street Willie (aka Willard Mitt Romney) is probably the favorite. It also looks like he may take both Maryland and Wisconsin, since two new polls show him with a comfortable lead in both those states. Even if Romney does take all three, he will still not have the required number of delegates to clinch the nomination. But it will give him a much better chance of getting that majority of delegates before the GOP convention.

Frankly, I'm not so afraid of Romney being the nominee anymore. He's shown he is a weak candidate who can't even convince the majority of Republicans he should be the nominee. He will probably get the nomination, but he won't enthuse GOP voters, and certainly won't appeal to Independents. Most people now see him as a rich tool of Wall Street who has no conception of the problems facing ordinary Americans.

Here are the two latest polls:

NBC/MARIST POLL (Wisconsin)
Mitt Romney...............40%
Rick Santorum...............33%
Ron Paul...............11%
Newt Gingrich...............8%
Undecided...............7%

RASMUSSEN POLL (Maryland)
Mitt Romney...............45%
Rick Santorum...............28%
Newt Gingrich...............12%
Ron Paul...............7%
Other/Undecided...............8%

2nd Poll Shows Growing GOP Unpopularity

Yesterday I posted about the recent ABC News/Washington Post Poll, which showed the popularity of the GOP presidential candidates is dropping. The most popular, Willard Mitt Romney (aka Wall Street Willie), lagged 19 points behind President Obama in the poll's favorability ratings. The poll also had President Obama with a double-digit lead over all of the GOP candidates in head-to-head match-ups.

While those poll numbers looked good for Democrats, it's always good to have the numbers verified by another respected poll, and that's just what has happened. The CNN/ORC International Poll was released a day later, and it verifies what the previous poll had shown. As the chart above shows, the poll also has the president with a 19 point gap over the favorability of the most popular Republican -- with the president having a 56% favorable rating to 37% for Romney, 35% for Santorum and Paul, and 24% for Gingrich. The Republicans all had higher negative than positive ratings, while the president had an 8 point higher positive than negative rating.

And the good news doesn't stop there. When looking at the favorability ratings of the two parties (which could have a big effect on congressional elections), the poll shows the Democrats have opened up a 13 point difference in favorability over the Republicans. The Democrats had a 48% favorable to 45% unfavorable rating, while the Republicans had a 35% favorable to 58% unfavorable rating.

An interesting part of the poll is in the demographics section. It looks like the Democrats can thank women for their growing lead in favorability. While men give the Democrats a higher unfavorable rating than favorable (42% to 50%), women more than make up for that by giving Democrats a 14 point higher favorable rating than unfavorable (54% to 40%). It looks like the GOP's "war on women" is taking a toll on them. Both men and women now give the GOP lower favorable than unfavorable ratings -- men (36% to 57%) and women (34% to 59%).

And like the previous poll, this poll shows the low favorable ratings of the GOP candidates and the Republican Party translates into a double-digit lead for the president over either of the top two Republican candidates. Here are those nationwide numbers:

REGISTERED VOTERS

Obama...............54%
Romney...............43%

Obama...............55%
Santorum...............42%

ALL RESPONDENTS

Obama................56%
Romney...............40%

Obama...............57%
Santorum...............39%

But while both of these recent polls show the Democrats are in a good position and the numbers are moving their way, that does not automatically mean they will win in November. If too many Democrats and Independents think the election has already been won and stay home on election day, we could see another electoral disaster like 2010. The only thing these numbers should do is inspire Democrats (and Americans in general) to work even harder to turn out a big vote -- and save this country from Republican incompetence and malfeasance.

Romney Unfavorable Rating Climbing

A hard-fought campaign between two or more candidates doesn't have to hurt any candidate. In 2008, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton engaged in one of the hardest fought campaigns in many years for the Democratic Party. But they did not try to destroy each other, and amazingly, both candidates finished the campaign more popular than ever -- with Barack Obama being elected president and Hillary Clinton being one of the most popular politicians in this country.

But it hasn't worked out that way for the Republicans in their fight for the presidential nomination this year. It looks like Willard Mitt Romney will probably win that nomination, but the campaign has not helped his popularity. The more people learn about Romney, the more it seems they don't like him. And a new poll now shows him badly trailing the president in popularity -- by about 19 points.

A new ABC News/Washington Post Poll has the president's favorability at about 53% (the third month in a row that he has scored above 50%). But as the chart above shows, Romney's favorability has dropped to only 34% (while his unfavorability has climbed to 50%). Romney may have been able to use all his corporate and Wall Street money to beat back his GOP opponents, but it has not made him very popular with the general public.

And this growing unfavorability is probably what's hurting him in the latest head-to-head match-ups with President Obama. A new Suffolk University national poll shows the president is now 10 points ahead of Romney. And the other Republican candidates do even worse. Here are those numbers:

SUFFOLK UNIVERSITY POLL

Obama...............47%
Romney...............37%
Third party...............7%
Undecided...............7%

Obama...............49%
Santorum...............35%
Third party...............7%
Undecided...............9%

Obama...............50%
Gingrich...............31%
Third party...............11%
Undecided...............7%

Obama...............49%
Paul...............28%
Third party...............12%
Undecided...............10%

And the news just keeps getting worse for both Romney and Santorum. A new Quinnipiac University Poll shows that President Obama has now jumped into a healthy lead over both of them in three very important swing states (states the Republicans must win to have a chance of winning the White House). Here are those numbers:

FLORIDA

Obama...............49%
Romney...............42%

Obama...............50%
Santorum...............37%

OHIO

Obama...............47%
Romney...............41%

Obama...............47%
Santorum...............40%

PENNSYLVANIA

Obama...............45%
Romney...............42%

Obama...............48%
Santorum...............41%

The extended Republican campaign is giving the GOP candidates a lot of exposure. Their problem is that the public just doesn't like what they see.

Mr. Frothy Wins Big In Louisiana

Last Tuesday Wall Street Willie (aka Willard Mitt Romney) waltzed to an easy victory in Illinois. That means it was time for one of his opponents to win a state (seeing as how the GOP campaign has been going this year). And Mr. Frothy (aka Rick Santorum) did not disappoint last night. He easily took the Louisiana primary, winning by more than a 22 point margin (not just a whuppin', but an outright ass-stompin'). Here are the numbers:

LOUISIANA (99% reporting)
Rick Santorum...............91,133  (49.07%)
Mitt Romney...............49,433  (26.62%)
Newt Gingrich...............29,564  (15.92%)
Ron Paul...............11,422  (6.15%)
Others...............4,172  (2.25%)
TOTAL VOTES...............185,724

Now it's about 10 days until the next primaries are held (in Maryland, Wisconsin, and the District of Columbia on April 3rd). Rasmussen has released a poll showing Romney with a sizeable lead in Wisconsin, but most of it was done before the Romney campaign's "etch-a-sketch" gaffe. Polls coming out about a week from now should be interesting, because they'll show if this latest gaffe is going to hurt him.

Louisiana GOP Votes Today

Today, Louisiana will become the 29th state to vote their preferences in the Republican presidential nomination race. Wall Street Willie (aka Willard Mitt Romney) won the last primary (last Tuesday in Illinois), but it is unlikely he can repeat that in Louisiana -- a state with a lot of teabaggers and evangelicals (groups Romney has had trouble with).

And the terrible gaffe by Romney's own campaign advisor last week -- where he compared Romney to an Etch-A-Sketch (who could rewrite his political views at any time) certainly won't help. The teabaggers and evangelicals already mistrust Romney's conservative credentials. They consider him a flip-flopper, who will abandon them once he gets the nomination. The Etch-A-Sketch comparison just verifies their suspicions.

The Louisiana primary is the last primary in March. The next primaries are in Maryland, Wisconsin, and the District of Columbia on April 3rd. That's 10 days for the Etch-A-Sketch comparison to burn itself into the minds of voters in those states -- enough time for those who were ready to grudgingly accept Romney to change their minds.

Meanwhile, two new polls were released yesterday on the race in Louisiana. Both of them show Mr. Frothy (aka Rick Santorum) has a substantial lead there. Here are the numbers:

PUBLIC POLICY POLLING (Louisiana)
Rick Santorum...............42%
Mitt Romney...............28%
Newt Gingrich...............18%
Ron Paul...............8%
Buddy Roemer...............2%

AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP POLL (Louisiana)
Rick Santorum...............43%
Mitt Romney...............27%
Newt Gingrich...............20%
Ron Paul...............6%
Other/Undecided...............4%

It's Wall Street Willie's Turn To Lose One

Last Tuesday Wall Street Willie (aka Willard Mitt Romney) won the primary in Illinois rather easily. Judging from how this year's Republican presidential nominating race has been going, that means it is now his turn to lose. And the Pelican State is poised to deliver on that promise on Saturday.

Yesterday I posted a Louisiana poll that showed Mr. Frothy (aka Rick Santorum) had a double-digit lead in that state. Yesterday another poll was released regarding the race in Louisiana, and it showed the same thing -- Santorum has a comfortable lead. Here are those poll numbers:

RASMUSSEN POLL (Louisiana)
Rick Santorum...............43%
Mitt Romney...............31%
Newt Gingrich...............16%
Ron Paul...............5%
Other/Undecided...............6%

If Louisiana does go to Santorum as expected, it's just one more step toward a long campaign -- and possibly a brokered convention.

The Race Goes On And On And On

Last Tuesday Willard Mitt Romney (aka Wall Street Willie) won the Illinois primary rather handily (by a double-digit margin). That has some political pundits claiming that he has finally got his campaign on track and is once again the "inevitable" GOP candidate. The problem is that's not the first time we have heard that.

We heard it after New Hampshire (and then he lost South Carolina). We heard it after Florida and Nevada (and then he lost Minnesota and Colorado). We heard it again after Michigan and Arizona (only to have mixed results on Super Tuesday and then defeats in Alabama and Mississippi). The pundits seem to be searching for any excuse to name Romney as the anointed one -- and thus justify their early predictions on the race.

The truth is that this GOP nomination race is still far from over. While slightly more than half of the states have now voted, Wall Street Willie still only has about half the delegates he needs to win the nomination -- and has received less than half of the votes cast so far. I think he is probably the favorite, but he's still a long way from being "inevitable". And that will most likely be highlighted again this weekend (Saturday, March 24th) as the Louisiana primary is held.

All previous polls have shown Romney is trailing in Louisiana -- and with every state that he loses now, a brokered convention becomes a more real possibility. Yesterday a new poll was released regarding Louisiana, and it also shows Romney trailing Santorum by about 13 points -- and there's just not enough time for him to put a lot of advertising money into the state to turn that around (like he did in states like Florida, Michigan, and Illinois). here are those new poll numbers:

MAGELLAN STRATEGIES POLL (Louisiana)
Rick Santorum...............37%
Mitt Romney...............24%
Newt Gingrich...............24%
Ron Paul...............3%
Buddy Roemer...............3%
Rick Perry...............3%
Undecided...............6%

NOTE -- Roemer and Perry have dropped out of the race, but they are still on the ballot.

Illinois Republicans Get Their Say Today

Illinois will be the 28th state to join the Republican presidential nominating fray as they hold their primary today -- and it's a pretty rich prize, with 69 delegates at stake (54 delegates will be chosen today, and the rest will be chosen at the state convention).

Last week's polls showed a close race between Wall Street Willie (aka Willard Mitt Romney) and Mr. Frothy (aka Rick Santorum), but two new polls just released show Romney has extended his lead to double-digits. I think Romney is probably the favorite now, but I'm not sure it is that much. Santorum has been consistently outperforming his poll numbers.

As it has been in many other states, it seems to be boiling down to a urban/suburban versus rural thing. Romney is favored in the urban areas and the suburbs, while Santorum is favored in the rural areas. Will the Chicago area rule the day, or will downstate voters call the shots? We'll know by late tonight. Meanwhile, here are the latest poll numbers:

PUBLIC POLICY POLLING (Illinois)
Mitt Romney...............45%
Rick Santorum...............30%
Newt Gingrich...............12%
Ron Paul...............10%

AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP POLL (Illinois)
Mitt Romney...............44%
Rick Santorum...............30%
Newt Gingrich...............13%
Ron Paul...............8%

Wall Street Willie Wins Puerto Rico Easily

Willard Mitt Romney (aka Wall Street Willie) easily waltzed to victory in Puerto Rico, and claimed 22 of Puerto Rico's 23 delegates (one of the three super-delegates had previously come out supporting Newt Gingrich). Romney got all 20 of the delegates from yesterday's primary by winning over 50% of the primary vote (if he hadn't, all candidates getting 15% would have gotten some delegates).

Romney has done very well this year in Hawaii and the island territories, winning all of them fairly easily. It's just here in the continental U.S. that he is having problems. He probably would have won Puerto Rico anyway, but it didn't hurt that Santorum screwed himself during his trip there. Santorum didn't just shoot himself in the foot, he filled his feet with bullet holes by telling the residents of that island they would never become a state until they learned to speak English.

That was an incredibly stupid thing to do. It was the equivalent of telling a room full of women they don't deserve equal pay or the right to contraception, or telling a room full of African-Americans that slavery wasn't so bad. I would say it shows he's not qualified to be president, but I don't think any of the Republican candidates are qualified (including Romney). Here are the numbers for the Puerto Rico primary:

PUERTO RICO (83% reporting)
Mitt Romney...............98,375  (88.01%)
Rick Santorum...............9,524  (8.52%)
Newt Gingrich...............2,431  (2.17%)
Ron Paul...............1,452  (1.30%)
TOTAL VOTES...............111,782

Tomorrow the GOP nominating race moves on to Illinois, where there are 69 delegates at stake. The last polls available showed Wall Street Willie with a small lead over Mr. Frothy (Santorum). We'll know Tuesday night if that is true.

Missouri GOP Caucuses Today

Today is the day that Missouri Republicans hold their caucuses. Missouri held a primary last month, but that was just sort of a "beauty contest" to see what the state's Republicans thought of the candidates -- and their were no delegates at stake. They caucuses are different, and much more important -- because they will determine which candidates get delegates and how many.

This could be another big day for Rick Santorum. That's because he took 55% of the vote in the MIssouri primary to only 25% for Romney and 12% for Paul (Gingrich was not on the ballot). But a primary and a caucus are vastly different things. Lots of people will take a few minutes to vote in a primary, but won't take the opportunity to attend a caucus where the procedures can be very time-consuming (and infuriating).

Will Gingrich steal some of the Santorum supporters from the primary? Will Paul do well, or underperform as he has been doing recently? Can Santorum pull off another big victory in Missouri? Or will the Romney supporters turn out in bigger numbers? Late tonight we'll have the answers to all of those questions -- and have a better idea of how the 52 Missouri delegates will be apportioned.

Then tomorrow (Sunday) the territory of Puerto Rico will hold their primary. I haven't seen any polls of the race there, but I have to believe Romney (aka Wall Street Willie) has a very good chance of winning. That's because Santorum tried to commit political suicide when he visited there a few days ago. He told the Puerto Ricans that they would never become a state until they learned to speak English -- not the smartest thing to say on that Spanish-speaking island.

Next Tuesday, only three days from now, the people of Illinois will get their chance to make their choice known in the GOP primary. There are 69 delegates at stake, and recent polls have shown Wall Street Willie (Romney) with a slight lead over Mr. Frothy (Santorum). It's turning out to be a battle between Chicago and the rest of Illinois. Romney is leading in Chicago, while Santorum leads in the rest of Illinois. I wouldn't count Santorum out yet, because he has been doing better than his polling shows. Here are the numbers in the latest polls:

RASMUSSEN POLL (Illinois)
Mitt Romney...............41%
Rick Santorum...............32%
Newt Gingrich...............14%
Ron Paul...............7%

ASK AMERICA POLL (Illinois)
Mitt Romney...............37%
Rick Santorum...............31%
Newt Gingrich...............14%
Ron Paul...............10%

If money was the only thing that mattered, then Wall Street Willie would be assured of winning -- because he has vastly outspent Mr. Frothy in Illinois. The Romney campaign and the Romney super-PAC have together spent over $3.6 million in Illinois so far. The Santorum campaign and the Santorum super-PAC have only spent a little over $700,000.

Can Romney buy himself another state? He was able to do so in Florida, but a 3 to 1 spending advantage in Alabama and Mississippi bought him only a third place finish. We'll have to wait until Tuesday to see what his spending in Illinois has accomplished. This graph shows what the Illinois spending looks like:

Good News - But Don't Get Complacent

Right after the elections of 2010 it looked like the Republican Party was getting the upper hand again, in spite of the gross mismanagement they displayed during the Bush administration. But that turned out to be a combination of avery enthusiastic Republican base and the general population's disgust with high unemployment and a bad economy. Much has happened since then to change that dynamic, including a diminishing unemployment rate and the public realization that putting the Republicans in charge of Congress was a bad mistake.

A new survey from the Pew Research Center shows that things are definitely moving toward the direction of the Democrats having a very good election this November. When the public was asked which political party they viewed more favorably, the Democrats won hands down (49% to 36%). That's a 13 point difference -- the largest lead the Democrats have had since very shortly after President Obama was sworn in as president (and that lead has been growing recently).

But it's not just Democrats in general who are benefitting from the Republican mistakes of the recent past. The survey shows President Obama is now back to a 50% approval rating, and would easily beat either of the two leading Republican presidential candidates. Here are those numbers:

President Obama...............54%
Mitt Romney...............42%

President Obama...............57%
Rick Santorum...............39%

In both instances, the lead has grown substantially in just the last month. In February President Obama led Romney by only 8 points, but now the lead is 12 points (it was only 5 points in January). And President Obama has increased a 10 lead over Santorum in February to a current lead of about 18 points. That's the good news.

But here is what's starting to worry me a bit. At least 59% of the general population now believes the president will be re-elected (including 30% of Republicans). And that grows to 68% of the population if Santorum is the Republican candidate (including 43% of Republicans). Those are the kind of numbers that make voters complacent, and complacent voters may not vote (thinking their vote is not needed).

The Democrats are in good shape, and that seems to improve with each passing month. But "good shape" doesn't translate into a win at the polls unless voters are excited enough to actually go vote. The Democratic Party must keep voters engaged and enthusiastic about voting. They can't just count on good poll numbers carrying them through the election. We know the Republicans will have the money to mount an effective GOTV campaign (Wall Street will see to that). The Democrats must do the same.

Things are looking up for Democrats. Now they have to make sure the vote is high like it was in 2008.

Wall Street Willie And The Delegate Math

If Wall Street Willie (aka Willard Mitt Romney) looks a bit unhappy and confused in the picture above, there's a good reason for it. So far, 23 states and 3 territories have held their primaries/caucuses and 835 delegates have been won by the four candidates. A few months ago, most political pundits had thought the race would be all over by now. It isn't, and it has become clear that although Romney has the delegate lead, his campaign has a serious weakness. As the returns from Kansas showed last Saturday, he still has not won over the social conservatives (the teabaggers and evangelicals).

Here are the delegate totals so far (according to RealClearPolitics):
Mitt Romney...............455  (54.49%)
Rick Santorum...............199  (23.83%)
Newt Gingrich...............117  (14.01%)
Ron Paul...............64  (7.66%)
TOTAL DELEGATES...............835

There are a couple of ways of looking at this. One, the idea being floated by the Romney campaign, is that none of his opponents can get enough delegates to win the nomination. That is probably true. There are 1451 delegates left to be decided. Santorum has the most delegates right now at 199. That means he would have to win 942 of the remaining delegates, or 64.92%. That's not likely, and the odds are even longer for Gingrich and Paul.

But there is another way to look at it. His three opponents together have 380 delegates (45.51%). The three of them together would just need 764 (52.65%) of the remaining delegates to throw the nomination into a brokered convention -- where anything could happen. That is within the realm of possibility. And the longer Romney goes without showing some real strength among base voters, the more encouraged the anti-Romney forces will get (and the harder they will work).

I think the odds are still in Wall Street Willie's favor to get just enough delegates to avoid a brokered convention. But his campaign has shown us that the Republican Party is a very divided party. And if Romney wins, there will be a lot of unhappy people in the party. Can he win them over after getting the nomination? He'd better. If very many of them are mad enough to stay home on election day or vote for a third party, it could be disastrous down-ballot for the Republican Party.