These Two Polls Show The Bush Candidacy Is Finished

If you had any doubt that Jeb Bush was no longer a viable candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, these two polls should help alleviate that doubt.

They are the newest CBS News / YouGov Battleground Polls of Florida and Texas Republican presidential preferences. In Florida, 988 likely GOP voters were queried between January 18th and 21st, with a margin of error of 4.6 points. In Texas, 984 likely GOP voters were queried in that same time frame, with a 4.4 point margin of error.

These are the two states that Jeb Bush should be doing very well in, if he is to be a viable candidate. He was the governor of Florida, and is a resident of that state. His brother was the governor of Texas and his son is the current Land Commissioner, and his parents are residents of that state. With such strong ties to both of these states, he should at least be a contender in both -- but he is not.

The best he does in both Florida and Texas is a fifth place finish, with a rather pathetic 4% support in both. That's not just a poor showing. It's a death sentence for his candidacy. The only question now is how long it will take him to realize this (and drop out of the race).

Bush Did NOT Help Himself In Debate (He's Still Toast)

Much of the media chatter among pundits is about whether Jeb Bush helped himself in Tuesday night's debate. And most seem to think he did -- noting that he seemed to have more energy, and was more engaged in this debate.

I'm not buying that. I think he probably actually hurt his chances to win the Republican nomination in that debate. Why do I say that? In a word -- immigration.

When the topic was brought up, several candidates (Trump, Cruz, Rubio) tried to position themselves as being the toughest against undocumented immigrants. When Bush got his chance to speak, he did just the opposite. He said:

“Sending 11 million people back is not possible, and it’s not embracing American values. Even having this conversation sends a powerful signal. They’re doing high-fives in the Clinton campaign over this.”

Now that may sound reasonable, and it actually is. And it would probably earn him some brownie points in a general election -- but he is not in a general election. He's running for the presidential nomination of the Republican Party. And all he did with that statement is remind GOP voters that he is the candidate that would provide a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.

The Republicans Party is a party ruled by racists and xenophobes. Not every Republican is a racist or xenophobe, but a majority of them are. In most states the party is run by the ultra-right-wing teabagger element -- and you can bet they are not going to like Bush's statement. They have dreams of being able to deport 11 million people (the issue that has rocketed Donald Trump to the top of Republican polls.

Jeb Bush shot himself in the foot by reminding GOP voters that he disagrees with them on immigration -- and doing so will hamper his efforts to get himself back in the race. There's still nearly three months until the primary season starts and anything can happen -- but Bush did not help his chances last Tuesday night.

(NOTE -- The caricature of Jeb Bush above is by DonkeyHotey.)

Clinton & Sanders Both Do Well Against Leading Republicans

The charts above reflect the results of a new McClatchy / Marist Poll. The survey was done between October 29th and November 4th of a random national sample of 1,465 adults, and has a margin of error of 2.6 points.

The poll is good news for Democrats -- both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders supporters. It shows that both of them would do well in a general election against the current leading Republican candidates. Only one GOP candidate comes close -- Ben Carson. Clinton leads Carson by 2 points, while Sanders trails him by two points (but both are within the poll's margin of error).

I still don't see Carson winning the GOP nomination, but even if he somehow does, I think his rather strange beliefs will eventually turn off the voters. It's still a long way to the next general election (about a year), but right now the Democrats are in a pretty good position -- no matter who they nominate.

Now Four Polls Show Trump Losing In Iowa To Carson

I previously brought you the results of Iowa polls that showed Ben Carson is now leading Donald Trump in that state -- the Des Moines Register / Bloomberg Poll and the Quinnipiac University Poll. Donald Trump refused to accept the results of those two polls, calling them "small polls", and said he believed he was still winning in Iowa. But it looks like Trump was wrong. Now two more polls show he is losing in Iowa.

First is the Monmouth University Poll -- done between October 22nd and 25th of a random sample of 400 likely GOP Iowa voters, with a margin of error of 4.9 points.

Next is the Loras College Poll -- done between October 19th and 22nd of a random sample of 500 likely Iowa GOP voters, with a margin of error of 4.4 points.

The Monmouth poll has Carson with a 14 point lead, and the Loras poll has Carson leading by 12 points. Those are significant margins -- far beyond the margins of error. I think it can safely be said that Trump has faded in Iowa.

Does that mean Trump is fading nationally? No. There is no evidence yet that his lead is in danger in other states.

Does this mean the Republican candidate will be either Donald Trump or Ben Carson? Again, I would say No. I still have trouble believing either one will be the eventual nominee (although I would love that, because I think Clinton could easily beat either of them). But I believe the business-oriented establishment Republicans also think neither could actually be elected. And when the primaries draw a bit closer, I think they will start spending massive amounts of money to deflate Trump's numbers.

As for Carson, he has some of the weirdest views of any candidate (and the establishment Republicans know that). I also have trouble thinking Carson could win simply because of the large number of racists within that party. They are not going to nominate a black man as president -- not even an Uncle Tom like Carson.

So who will be the eventual nominee? I have said in the past that I think it will be Marco Rubio. But I would not count Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz out yet. Bush has a lot of money left to spend, and Cruz would be the heir apparent of Trump's teabagger votes if Trump does start to fade.

But that's just my best guess. In truth, the Republican race is still a mess, and could go to anyone at this point. What's your guess?

Texas Is Clinton (And Trump) Territory

It's been a while, but we finally have a new poll on Texas preferences for the party nominations. It is the Texas Pulse / Crosswind Poll. It was done between September 11th and 14th of a random sample of 1,000 Texas voters, and has a margin of error of 3 points overall. No margin of error was given for just Democrats or Republicans.

For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton has a big lead of 32 points over Bernie Sanders -- besting him by 53% to 21%. And that's with Joe Biden considered to be a candidate. The lead for Clinton would most likely increase (as it does elsewhere) if Biden is taken out of the mix.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump has a 7 point lead over Ben Carson. The real story here is how poorly Jeb Bush is doing, considering his family's strong ties to the state.

Hillary Clinton Is The Clear Favorite Of Florida Democrats

Yesterday, I brought you the results of new state polls in New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina. They showed Sanders leading in New Hampshire and Iowa, while Clinton maintained a huge lead in South Carolina. Now we have poll results from Florida. The charts above reflect the new Florida poll by Public Policy Polling. It was done between September 11th and 13th. They queried 368 Democrats and 377 Republicans, with the margin of error for both groups being 5.1 points.

As the top chart shows, Hillary Clinton has a 37 point lead over Bernie Sanders in Florida. That was with Joe Biden being considered a candidate (which he is not, and probably won't be). If you take Biden out of the mix (second chart above), the results are even better for Clinton -- giving her a 44 point lead over Sanders.

The chart below shows the preference of Florida Republicans. Like in other states, the leaders are Donald Trump (27%) and Ben Carson (17%). The most notable thing about the GOP survey was how poorly Jeb Bush (13%) and Marco Rubio (10%) did -- both being from Florida. In fact pluralities of Republicans (47% for Bush and 48% for Rubio) thought both should drop out. That has to hurt.

GOP Presidential Preference From July To The Present

This chart was made from a new CBS News / New York Times Poll -- done between September 9th and 13th of a national sample of 376 Republican primary voters, and has a margin of error of 6 points.

The poll verifies what several others have shown in recent days -- that two candidates are far ahead in the race. Donald Trump has 27% support and Ben Carson has 23% support. No other candidate registers more than 6% support.

But the interesting part of the survey, at least for me, is when they compare current results to the results this same poll got on July 15th (two months ago). Trump has about the same result as in July (with his slight gain being within the survey's margin of error. The candidate with the biggest jump since July is Ben Carson -- who has gone from 6% to 23%. Carly Fiorina (going from 0% to 4%) and John Kasich (going from 1% to 3%) also showed a small gain (although statistically insignificant).

All of the other candidates either lost support or stayed the same. The biggest losers were Jeb Bush (who dropped 7 points) and Scott Walker (who dropped 8 points). Bush now has 6% support and Walker comes in at an embarrassing 2% support.

Trump & Carson Still Only GOP Candidates In Double-Digits

This is from the new ABC News / Washington Post Poll of registered voters nationwide. It was done between September 7th and 10th, But no margin of error was given for Republicans only. It shows Donald Trump with a 13 point lead over Ben Carson, and Carson with a 12 point lead over Jeb Bush. Bush only got 8% support, and all others did even worse. Right now, it's still a two-man race.

This Poll Should Worry Jeb Bush - A Lot

This chart shows the result of a recent Rasmussen Poll -- done on September 6th and 7th of a random national sample of 1,000 likely voters, with a 3 point margin of error.

If I was Jeb Bush, this poll would worry me. It shows that 36% believe Bush's beliefs and policies are closer to those of Hillary Clinton than the GOP base. Another 24% say they are unsure. That means only 40% say Bush has views closer to those of Republican voters.

Why is this trouble for Bush? Because nearly 8 out of 10 Republicans (78%) believe Hillary Clinton is a liberal (and they don't mean that in a positive way). A majority of the Republican base is made up of teabaggers, evangelicals, and racists -- and none of those groups are likely to vote for a liberal (or even a moderate).

This puts Bush between a rock and a hard place. If he is to win the GOP nomination, he's going to have to spend a lot of his huge war-chest to convince Republican voters that he is as bat-crap crazy as they are. But if he is successful, you can bet the Democrats won't let the voters forget it in the general election. Bush is now the victim of the same right-wing virus that infected Mitt Romney in 2012.

Clinton Viewed More Positively Than Either Trump Or Bush

The Washington Post gave us these results under the headline "Hillary Clinton's Image Continues To Decline". That seems to me to be just another example of Hillary-bashing, probably in an attempt to stir up controversy and increase readership. They could just as easily used the headline that I did, which tells us more about the poll -- that Clinton is still viewed more favorably than either of the two leading Republicans. She is viewed more favorably by 5 points over Jeb Bush, and by 6 points over Donald Trump (and her unfavorable rating is less than either of those two).

The results are from an ABC News / Washington Post Poll that was done between August 26th and 30th of a random national sample of 1,005 adults, and has a margin of error of 3.5 points.

Two New National GOP Polls - Trump Still Has A Big Lead

These charts reflect the results of two new national polls on the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Although their numbers are different, both agree that Donald Trump has a huge lead  -- with Jeb Bush finishing in a poor second, and everybody else struggling to remain relevant (even Walker, Rubio, Paul, and Cruz -- who were all thought to be among the leaders at one time).

The CNN / ORC Poll was done between August 13th and 16th of a random national sample of 456 registered GOP voters (and leaners), and has a margin of error of 4.5 points.

The Morning Consult Poll was done between August 14th and 16th of a random national sample of 783 Republicans (and leaners), and has a margin of error of 3.5 points.

Clinton Leads All Others In Non-PAC Campaign Donations

There are two different kinds of money going to affect our election campaigns. The first is money donated directly to a candidate's campaign. This money must come from an individual (rather than a corporation) and there is a limit on how much can be donated. In addition, the name of the donor must be reported.

The other kind of money is that coming from PACs, SUPER-PACs, and other organizations. Many times the donor's name is kept secret (dark money), and there is no limitation on the amount of money that can be given. This money can be spent to further a candidate's campaign, but supposedly the candidate has no control over how that money is spent (and if you believe that, I have some ocean-front property here in Amarillo that I'll sell you real cheap).

The two Democrats leading the race for that party's nomination are the candidates with the most individual donations directly to their campaigns. Hillary Clinton is first with $45.7 million, and Bernie Sanders is second with $15.2 million. Republican Ted Cruz is third with $14.3 million, and Republican Jeb Bush is fourth with $11.4 million.

But when you add in the money from other sources (like PACs and SUPER-PACs), the funding numbers change radically. Jeb Bush streaks into the lead with $120 million, and Hillary Clinton is second with $67.8 million. Third place goes to Ted Cruz with $52.5 million, and fourth to Marco Rubio with $42 million.

These numbers are reported by the New York Times (who got them from reports to the Federal Election Commission).

Clinton & Bush Released Tax Returns - Why Hasn't Trump?

Last Friday, Hillary Clinton released the last eight years worth of tax returns for her and her family. It shows that she and Bill earned about $141 million dollars (an adjusted gross income of $139.1 million) during that eight year period -- and they paid about $43 million in federal income taxes. Over the eight year period, that's an effective tax rate of about 31% (and an effective tax rate of 35.7% for just last year). They gave $15 million to charity over the eight year period.

Jeb Bush has also released tax returns -- for the last 33 years (although many of them were already public). Bush made $7.4 million in the last year, and over the 33 year period paid an average tax rate of about 36%. Like the Clinton's, he and his wife are multi-millionaires.

I don't have much of a gripe about the tax rates paid by both of these candidates. They both paid a far higher rate than middle income Americans, and the rate being less than the top rate can easily be accounted for by charitable deductions. It's far different than the 13% tax rate paid by Mitt Romney (on an income of more than $20 million a year).

The question I have is -- why hasn't Donald Trump released his tax returns for the last few years? He claims to be a serious candidate, and in fact, is leading in all the national polls. Isn't it time he revealed the tax rate he has been paying?

The only clue we have to his tax rate comes from his own lips, in an interview with CBS News back in 2011. At that time he claimed to be paying an effective tax rate of 17%. Is that the real figure? Is it even lower? Why won't he release the returns? Is he afraid he'll garner negative publicity (like Romney did in 2012) by admitting he's paying a lower effective rate than a middle income taxpayer?

Trump Still Looking Strong In Latest National Poll Of GOP

These are some interesting results from the latest national poll of Republicans. It seems that a majority of Republicans (56%) consider John McCain to be a war hero, and that same percentage thinks Donald Trump owes McCain an apology for doubting his hero status.

But that has not hurt Trump in the polls. This poll (the YouGov Poll done between July 20th and 22nd of 1,000 random national adults -- with a margin of error of 4 points) shows Trump with his biggest lead yet. He has the support of 28% of Republicans -- 14 points better than Bush, and 15 points better than Walker. No other candidate got more than 7% (one-quarter the support that Trump got).

Trump has definitely tapped into the anger of the GOP teabagger base, and they don't care what he says about anyone else -- even other Republicans. They are angry, and they see Trump as the candidate (the only candidate) that is voicing the anger they feel.

Political pundits keep saying that Trump will fade, but he certainly isn't fading yet. And I'm starting to think he may have more staying power than anyone thought. The teabaggers have been looking for a hero for six years, and it looks like they have finally found one -- Donald Trump.

This does not necessarily mean he will win the nomination, and in fact, most Republicans don't think he will. About 36% think Jeb Bush will be the eventual winner, while 11% think it will be Walker, 10% think it will be Trump, and 7% think it will be Rubio (see chart below).

Possibility Of An Independent Trump Is A GOP Nightmare

In the last few days, Donald Trump has more than once refused to say whether he would run as an Independent if he couldn't get the GOP nomination. He says it's a definite possibility if he isn't treated fairly by the Republicans.

I have no idea if he would really do that. I think right now he's just enjoying scaring the hell out of Republican leaders. And it's something that does indeed scare the Republicans. Why? Just look at the two charts above. They show what would happen if the election was now, and Trump ran as an Independent against Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton.

As you can see, the result would be disastrous for GOP hopes of winning the White House -- giving Hillary Clinton an easy path to victory.

The top chart is from a recent ABC News / Washington Post Poll -- done between July 16th and 19th of a random national sample of 1,002 adults, with a margin of error of 3.5 points.

The bottom chart is from a new Public Policy Polling survey - done on July 20th and 21st of a random national sample of 1,087 voters, with a margin of error of 3 points.

Which One Of These Polls Is Wrong About Virginia ?

It seemed like all the major cable news outlets could talk about on Wednesday was the results of a new survey by the Quinnipiac University Poll. That poll (top chart) showed Hillary Clinton would lose to all three of the most likely GOP candidates in some swing states -- including Virginia. In Virginia, she trails Bush and Walker by 3 points, and Rubio by 2 points. Is this true?

Maybe not. A different survey in Virginia, done by Public Policy Polling, had a quite different result (bottom chart). It showed Clinton leading all three of those candidates --Bush by 8 points, Walker by 5 points, and Rubio by 4 points.

Both of these surveys were done in generally the same time period (Quinnipiac between July 9th and 20th, and PPP between July 13th and 15th), had similar survey sizes (Quinnipiac questioned 1,209 people, and PPP questioned 1,170 people), and had similar margins of error (Quinnipiac's was 2.8 points, and PPP's was 2.9 points). How did the two surveys arrive at such different results? Which is correct?

One of these polls is an outlier (a poll that disagrees with all other polls). In my opinion it is the Quinnipiac University Poll. Their results disagree with all of the other polls we have seen, while Public Policy Polling's survey is in line with other polls.

It is possible that Quinnipiac is showing a change happening, but I don't believe it -- at least not yet. It will be interesting to see what future polls show.

Virginia Voters Make Their Presidential Preference Known

Public Policy Polling has released their latest presidential poll. This time they queried the voters in Virginia. The survey was done between July 13th and 15th of a random sample of 1,170 registered voters in Virginia, with a margin of error of 2.9 points. The margin of error for the 502 Republicans is 4.4 points, and for the 409 Democrats is 4.9 points.

Donald Trump didn't finish first in this survey. That honor went to Jeb Bush, who had the support of 18% of Virginia Republicans. But Trump was among the leaders, finishing in a tie for second with Scott Walker at 14% support. No other candidate could get into double-digits. Huckabee with 8% and Rubio with 7% came the closest.

I am a bit surprised at what has happened to candidates that were once considered to be among the leaders -- like Cruz, Rubio, Huckabee, and Paul. They seem to have been the losers of the Trump phenomenon, falling back into the "second-tier" of candidates. Cruz, Huckabee, and Paul were benefitting from the anger in the base, but Trump seems to have co-opted that anger vote.Can Trump go the distance? He may be making a mistake by attacking other Republicans right now. If he does fall back, can Cruz, Huckabee, and Paul regain their status. We'll just have to wait and see. Frankly, I don't know the answer to those questions.

There's no question who the favorite is among Virginia Democrats though. Hillary Clinton has a 50 point lead over Bernie Sanders (64% to 14%) -- and that's without Biden being included as a choice. Some had thought Biden supporters might go to Sanders, but that certainly didn't happen in Virginia.

Another interesting aspect of this PPP survey was that they matched both Sanders and Clinton with the three leading Republicans (and Rubio). Clinton would beat any of the four, while Sanders would beat only Trump. There are a lot of "unsure" though, and that could mean that Virginia voters are open to Sanders showing he could be a credible candidate for the Democrats. He just hasn't done that yet.

NOTE -- On these two bottom charts, the blue represents the Democratic candidate and the red represents the GOP candidates. The green shows the number of voters who are unsure who they would vote for.

Hillary Clinton Has Strong Support From Hispanic Voters

These charts were all made from information from a new Univision Poll. They surveyed 1400 registered Hispanic voters between June 12th and June 25th, and the poll has a margin of error of 2.62 points (slightly higher for only Democrats or Republicans).

Republicans have been worried about the Hispanic vote. George Bush got about 35% of the Hispanic vote in 2000, and barely squeaked into office. he did better in 2004, getting 44%. But the GOP candidates following Bush have done much more poorly -- with McCain getting 31% in 2008 and Romney getting only 29% in 2012. And as the bottom chart below shows, no current Republican can even match Romney's poor showing among Hispanics. Jeb Bush does the best when set against Clinton at 27%, and Marco Rubio is next with only 25%.

Those numbers are not going to work for the Republicans, and that was before Donald Trump started his vicious anti-immigrant rhetoric. It can easily be seen why GOP leaders are worrying about the picture of the Republican Party being painted by Trump. That rhetoric may work in the primary (where only 16% of Hispanics will be voting), but it sure will hurt in the general election. About 58% of Hispanics say they are Democrats, and that rhetoric certainly won't appeal either to the 26% who say they are Independents.

Also interesting is the fact that the overwhelming majority of Hispanics (68%) say a candidate's ability to speak Spanish won't affect who they'll vote for -- so Jeb Bush, who speaks Spanish, won't get much help from that.

The charts below show the presidential preference of Hispanic Democrats and Republicans. Note that Hillary Clinton has a huge lead among Hispanic Democrats -- 73% compared to 8% for Biden and 3% for Sanders. Bush (40%) has an 18 point lead over Rubio (22%), while no other Republican tops 8%.

The bottom chart matches Hillary Clinton against the leading GOP candidates. Bush does the best with 27%, but that is still 37 points behind Clinton (64%).

If the GOP expects to get a respectable percentage of the Hispanic vote in 2016, they have a lot of work to do.

National Poll Has Bush And Trump Leading The GOP

Another national poll has been released on the GOP presidential nomination contest. It is the Monmouth University Poll -- done between July 9th and 12th of a random national sample of 336 registered Republicans, and has a margin of error of 5.4 points.

Only two candidates finished in double figures -- Jeb Bush (15%) and Donald Trump (13%), and since they are well within the margin of error to each other, they are in a statistical tie. No other candidate could reach double figures, and in fact, almost all of the others have actually lost support since this survey was done last April.

Even though Bush only got 15%, I think his supporters are probably happy with these results. In a two-way race between Bush and Trump, Bush would look like the moderate voice of reason (even though he supports the same failed economic and foreign policies of his brother).

Trump is still sounding off without bothering to put his brain in gear, and there's little doubt that he'll turn the first GOP debate into more of a comedy show than a political debate. That is bothering some GOP leaders right now -- but in the long-run, his candidacy may prove to be of benefit to the party. Trump is so off-the-wall crazy that he could well make whatever extremist candidate they wind up choosing look like a moderate (and give them a chance to appeal to Independents in the general election).

Jeb Bush Is Out Of Touch With American Workers

(This caricature of Jeb Bush is by DonkeyHotey.)

My aspiration for the country—and I believe we can achieve it—is 4 percent growth as far as the eye can see. Which means we have to be a lot more productive; workforce participation has to rise from its all-time modern lows. It means that people need to work longer hours and, through their productivity, gain more income for their families. That's the only way we're going to get out of this rut that we're in.

Those are the words of Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush. I can understand why he would like to believe that -- because he father continued Reagan's "trickle-down" economic theory, and his brother doubled down on that theory. He would have to admit they were wrong, and he's not about to do that -- not to mention the fact that he still supports that failed policy himself.

But the truth doesn't support him. As the charts below (from Mother Jones) shows, Americans are already working more hours than ever. And yet their wages remain depressed, too many people are still out of work, jobs continue to be off-shored to other countries (where workers can be abused), and productivity is not being shared with workers. Continuing the Reagan and Bush-family economic policy would just put workers in an even worse position and benefit only the rich -- making the income gap even worse (and it's already worse than the gap was before the Great Depression).

Bush is right about one thing though. The economy is sluggish and in a rut. He just has no clue on how to fix it. There is a much better way to stimulate the economy -- creating more jobs and good profits for businesses. And here's a few things we could do to accomplish that:

1. Raise the minimum wage to a livable level (and tie it to the rate of inflation).
2. Strengthen labor unions, so they can bargain more effectively for workers (getting them a fair share of rising productivity).
3. Stop giving tax breaks to companies that off-shore American jobs.

These measures would put more money in the hands of workers, and stimulate the economy when that money is spent -- which would increase business profits and spur job creation by increasing the demand for goods/services.

This is not rocket-science, but sadly, it does seem to be beyond the capabilities of Bush and all the other GOP candidates. They can only see ways to make the rich much richer -- still convinced that someday the rich will share all that money with everyone else. How much failure will they have to experience before they realize the truth?