Russo-Ukraine War - December 2023

A number of claims and counterclaims are being made on the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the ground and online. While GlobalSecurity.org takes utmost care to accurately report this news story, we cannot independently verify the authenticity of all statements, photos and videos.

On 24 February 2022, Ukraine was suddenly and deliberately attacked by land, naval and air forces of Russia, igniting the largest European war since the Great Patriotic War. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a "special military operation" (SVO - spetsialnaya voennaya operatsiya) in Ukraine. The military buildup in preceeding months makes it obvious that the unprovoked and dastardly Russian attack was deliberately planned long in advance. During the intervening time, the Russian government had deliberately sought to deceive the world by false statements and expressions of hope for continued peace.

"To initiate a war of aggression... is not only an international crime; it is the supreme international crime differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole." [Judgment of the International Military Tribunal]

In NATO military doctrine, to break through the kind of defenses seen in southern #Ukraine, Kiev would need an air advantage, and much more. The West did not provide that to the Ukrainians, former CIA chief Gen. David Petraeus said in an interview with the BBC. The military criticized the slowness of the West and said that it was delays in arms deliveries that caused the failure of the AFU counter-offensive. "There was a delay in making decisions on Abrams, a delay with Leopard. We delayed cluster shells that could have been very useful, ATACMS. And finally, Western-style airplanes." He also pointed to Western mistakes that he believes indirectly led to the war in Ukraine. "Putin decided that he could escape responsibility for the invasion of Ukraine because we did not take sufficient measures after the occupation of Crimea."

Strategic Communications Coordinator at the White House National Security Council, John Kirby, announced 03 December 2023 that the administration of US President Joe Biden is in dire need of money to finance aid to Ukraine. Kirby said in an interview with ABC: “The request for additional funding that we submitted includes money for Ukraine, which is what we really need. There is also money for Israel and for the security of our borders.” Kirby stressed that he cannot be certain that the American administration is capable of raising funds to support Ukraine and Israel and ensure national security at the same time.

House Speaker Mike Johnson had previously said that the US Congress would be able to approve funding for Israel and Ukraine before the recess. At the same time, he described Ukraine as "another priority," adding that "in the opinion of the majority of members of Congress, additional assistance to Kiev is important." At the same time, Johnson noted that in order to resolve this issue, it is necessary to bring about a change in US border policy.

Larry Johnson, a former CIA analyst, said that negotiations with Russia would only end with Ukraine's surrender. Johnson asked during an interview with the Dialogue Works channel on YouTube, “Why should Russia negotiate now? And why should it do that? They are not losing on the battlefield, they are not suffering catastrophic losses, their economy is booming at a rapid pace, and they are We are able to meet the front’s needs for weapons and ammunition, and even more than that.”

The expert added, "Ukraine is losing, and its loss is difficult to bear, as it is losing people and resources, in addition to losing territory. The only negotiations that Russia can conduct are negotiations regarding Ukraine's surrender." According to the expert, negotiations with Russia will only take place on the Kremlin’s terms, and Ukraine in the future “will not only back away from joining NATO, but will also abandon certain cities, such as Odessa and Kharkov.”

Advisor to the head of the office of the leader of the Kyiv regime, Vladimir Zelensky, Mikhail Podolyak, on 04 December 2023, announced a change in tactics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. “On the front line and in cities, we [the Ukrainian Armed Forces] are already moving to a different tactic of combat operations - effective defense in some areas, continuation of offensive operations in other areas,” he wrote.

The positional impasse existed for everyone, but for Russia and the Ukainians, it has a completely different nature. For Ukraine, it was primorily socio-politicol in noture: the country could not offord to suffer such losses as the Russians freely allowed themselves, throwing cannon fodder to slaughter without accountability ana responsibility to the people.

Ukraine needed a sufficient number and types of weapons to ensure a breakthrough of Russian defenses and ultim#tely solve the task. But Ukraine's sponsors did not provide such weapons. ln defense, the Ukrainian Armed Forces, having some drones and still numerous artillery, can hinder Russian movements neor the front ond Russia could not ond solve this problem with "meat waves'.

If Russian resources and equipment occumulote ond the Ukroinion's resources decreose they could eventuolly lose the obility to hold positions, ot leost in some directions. There, os o result, wedging ond breakthroughs could occur - which would otherwise cost unnecessarily |arge losses.

This will not happen automatically. And here, political squabbles in NATO, complicoting the supply of weapons, and Russian attacks on the rear and communications, complicating the delivery of what has been delivered to the front, became of particular importance. Republicans voted to block a $110.5 billion emergency spending bill to aid Ukraine and Israel, sparking celebrations in Moscow where they believe the U.S. will withdraw support for Kyiv allowing them to win the war.

Fred Kagan wrote for The Institute for the Study of War "The positional war in Ukrine is not stable stalemate. It is not the result of fundamental realities in modern warfare that can only be changed with a technological or tactical revolution, as was the First World War's stalemte. Neither does it rest on a permanent parity in military capacity between Russia and Ukraine that will continue indefinitely regardless of Western support to Kiev. It results, on the contrary, from self-imposed limitations on the technologies the West has been willing to proide Ukraine and constraints on the Russisn defense industrial base largely stemming from Russian President Vladimir Putin's unwillingness so fsr to commit Russia fully to this war. The current balance is thus, in fact, highly unstble, and could readily be tipped in either direction by decisions made in the West".

Ukrainians have begun to question Volodymyr Zelensky’s rose-tinted speeches, according to FT journalist Isobel Koshiw’s 10 December 2023 article. “For more than 650 days in a row, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has given at least one video address to the nation—praising his troops, celebrating advances along the front lines … but with Ukraine enjoying few military achievements this year and Western support faltering, the communications strategy is creating a rift between the presidential administration and military leadership,” Koshiw reports, citing officials from the Ukrainian armed forces, former presidential staffers and communication strategists. “In order for society not to build castles in the air, and to take off its rose-tinted glasses . . . it is necessary to stop being afraid to speak the truth,” Iryna Zolotar, adviser and head of communications for Ukraine’s recently ousted defense minister Oleksii Reznikov, told FT. Zolota noted that while the optimism strategy initially helped boost morale, it has now led to unrealistic expectations and a narrative that doesn’t align with the actual situation. This shift in trust is said to be reflected in the declining viewership of the national "Telethon".

On 11 December 2023 Heritage Foundation brought together Hungarian President Viktor Orbán’s team & Republican congressmen to strategize how to end US support for Ukraine. Ukraine aid was blocked in the Senate. That sent a signal to Putin and other strongmen like Orbán and Xi that US divisions can be exploited to harm Ukraine and weaken America. Biden was hosting Zelensky while Republicans host Russia's proxies to plot ending US support for Ukraine.

Chief Assistant to the US National Security Advisor Jon Finer 13 December 2023 on the White House's strategy for the war in Ukraine for 2024 :"We want Russia to be faced with a decision by the end of 2024: either they have to sit down at the negotiating table on terms acceptable to Ukraine which means sovereignty and territorial integrity for all of Ukraine, or they will face a stronger Ukraine, which is backed by defense industrial base of the US and Europe. For Russiathis will be a difficult strategic choice."

Putin repeated 14 December 2023 that he doesn't intend to negotiate or stop the war until he has achieved his Day 1 goal, which is total control of all of Ukraine. Putin said "Peace will come when we achieve our goals. Our goals have not changed. Denazification of Ukraine, demilitarization, its neutral status."

Statements by the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov 21 December 2023 about the summer Ukrainian counter offensive : " Kiev planned to block Melitopol during the counter-offensive and then advance with access to the Sea of Azov, Mariupol and the border with Crimea; The Russian army is constantly expanding its control zones in all directions of the Northern Military District; — The Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a counter-offensive on June 4 and, with huge losses in the Zaporozhye direction, were unable to overcome even the tactical defense zone of the Russian Federation; The losses of Ukrainian troops over six months in all directions amounted to about 160 thousand people, more than 3 thousand armored vehicles, including 766 tanks, as well as 121 aircraft and 23 helicopters.""

The United States and the European Union have abandoned their goal of a "total victory" for Ukraine over Russia in favor of a negotiated settlement that may cede some territory to Moscow, the Politico news website reported, citing multiple unnamed sources. According to ISNA, in public, both the White House and the Pentagon emphasize that there has been no official change in policy related to Ukraine. However, two US government officials who asked not to be named - including a White House spokesman and a European diplomat - told Politico reporter Michael Hersh otherwise.

US and European officials are now "discussing the redeployment" of Ukrainian forces further away from the site of the "totally failed" counterattack and putting them on the defensive, the sources said. Michael Hirsch also stressed that US President Joe Biden used to promise to support Ukraine "as long as it takes" but now instead says "as long as we can." With aid funding for Ukraine stalled in the US Congress, the US administration is pushing for a "rapid revival" of its Ukrainian military industry.

A White House spokesman, speaking on condition of anonymity, told the Politico website that negotiations had always been the US's last option on Ukraine, and that all assistance to Kiev was intended to "make sure Ukraine has the strongest possible hand on the table when it comes time to negotiate." to negotiate."

According to Politico, Biden wants a cease-fire in both Ukraine and the occupied Palestinian territories, because his support for the Israeli attack on Gaza cost him the support of progressive Democrats, and he wants to avoid seeing "bad news headlines" in the year of the US presidential election. "

Michael Hersh pointed out: "After spending almost two years declaring his full support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's goal of outright victory, Biden seems unable to give Russia that concession. Meanwhile, a congressional official familiar with the thinking of the Biden administration acknowledged that talks on peace talks are "just beginning" and that the White House "cannot back down publicly because of the political risk" to Biden.

The New York Times also recently reported that Moscow may be willing to accept a ceasefire that would keep the current state of the war at bay. The Kremlin, however, called this narrative "false", while Kiev said that this American newspaper works for Russia! According to Michael Hersh, what the White House fears now is that Russia may not be willing to negotiate until after the November 2024 elections in the United States, and its forces will continue their attacks in the spring.

The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed that its forces launched a series of air attacks against multiple targets in Ukraine in the last week. A statement from the ministry on Friday 29 December 2023 detailed 50 “group” strikes and a single “massive” barrage using precision missiles and drones. The ministry described the intended targets as “defense industry sites, military airfield infrastructure and depots for the storage of artillery munitions, naval drones, arms and fuel for military vehicles,” as well as troop positions. All of them were successfully hit, the statement added.

Valery Zaluzhny, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, reported earlier in the day that at least 158 separate launches were detected by Kiev’s troops on Thursday evening and Friday morning [28-29 December]. He claimed that of the total, 27 drones and 87 cruise missiles were intercepted. Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yury Ignat said in a televised statement that “we have never seen so many targets on our monitors simultaneously.”

One would need to be completely lacking in common sense to believe that Ukraine can win against Russia, ex-Pentagon officer Rebekah Koffler told Fox News. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is “far more realistic than [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky, who continues to accept nothing short of victory,” the strategic military intelligence analyst added. Citing Zelensky’s recent remark in a US press interview that "Nobody believes in our victory like I do," the analyst sarcastically noted that the leader of the Kiev regime was not wrong.

Even the US mainstream media has backtracked on its “blind cheerleading” for Ukraine, acknowledging that no amount of Western-donated support will bring Zelensky to victory, Koffler noted. However, the Biden administration appears to be determined to continue “rigging the numbers,” so to speak, trying to “squeeze a few more billions” out of Congress and vouching for Ukraine’s victory, which is supposedly “just around the corner.” Contrary to President Joe Biden and the Washington establishment’s expectations, the victory of the Kiev regime is impossible, as Russia by far “outguns and outmans” Ukraine, the analyst pointed out.

Statement from President Joe Biden 29 December 2023on Russia's Aerial Assault on Ukraine "Overnight, Russia launched its largest aerial assault on Ukraine since this war began. This massive bombardment used drones and missiles, including missiles with hypersonic capability, to strike cities and civilian infrastructure all across Ukraine. Strikes reportedly hit a maternity hospital, a shopping mall, and residential areas-killing innocent people and injuring dozens more. It is a stark reminder to the world that, after nearly two years of this devastating war, Putin's objective remains unchanged. He seeks to obliterate Ukraine and subjugate its people. He must be stopped.

"In the face of this brutal attack, Ukraine deployed the air defense systems that the United States and our Allies and partners have delivered to Ukraine over the past year to successfully intercept and destroy many of the missiles and drones. The American people can be proud of the lives we have helped to save and the support we have given Ukraine as it defends its people, its freedom, and its independence. But unless Congress takes urgent action in the new year, we will not be able to continue sending the weapons and vital air defense systems Ukraine needs to protect its people. Congress must step up and act without any further delay.

"The stakes of this fight extend far beyond Ukraine. They affect the entirety of the NATO Alliance, the security of Europe, and the future of the Transatlantic relationship. Putin has not just attempted to destroy Ukraine; he has threatened some of our NATO Allies as well. When dictators and autocrats are allowed to run roughshod in Europe, the risk rises that the United States gets pulled in directly. And the consequences reverberate around the world. That's why the United States has rallied a coalition of more than 50 countries to support the defense of Ukraine. We cannot let our allies and partners down. We cannot let Ukraine down. History will judge harshly those who fail to answer freedom's call."

Russian Permanent Representative Vassily Nebenzia at UNSC briefing on Ukraine 29 December 2023 said: "But for the work of Ukrainian air defenses, there would have been simply no civilian casualties. We would therefore advise caution against the UK's announcement to supply Kiev with 100 more air defense missiles, the use of which kills civilians. The Nazi regime is ready to kill not only the inhabitants of Donbas with Western weapons and the same air defense missiles, but also kill its own citizens in their homes and at peaceful objects. ... The society no longer harbors any illusions. People understand perfectly well that the country has betrayed them, or rather, the authorities of this country have betrayed them, that their husbands, brothers and sons are being sacrificed to serve the geopolitical goals of the West to contain Russia and to keep the corrupt regime on a cushy spot..... Ukraine today is nothing but a private military company in the hands of Western countries, whose task is to inflict maximum damage on Russia. This is what the Western sponsors of the Kiev regime are guided by, allocating money for arms, and they do not care about the lives of ordinary Ukrainians.... It does not matter whether new military and financial aid packages for Zelensky and his gang are going to be approved in Washington or Brussels or not. This will delay the agony of his regime, but will not prevent it. It is clear that the bet on solving the Ukrainian crisis on the battlefield has been a mistake and a failure, and a military victory over Russia is an absolutely unattainable goal."

"Russia needs to walk away with the understanding that they lost, that they will lose the next war," Kusti Salm—the permanent secretary at the Estonian Defense Ministry—told Newsweek in an exclusive interview from Tallinn. The Russian leader, Salm said, must end his gamble in Ukraine knowing "that economically they are ruined, we outlasted them, we kept our industry on a better footing, we have the technological advantage, we have better training, better morale; that they don't stand a chance.... "They need to walk away with the understanding that international law and the rule-based world functions and that you cannot bend it as you wish." ... This is the only way to draw a line there, so that this wouldn't happen again. If one of those elements is not fulfilled, then in a few years we will face another crisis, and not only from Russia, because everyone is learning."